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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1350 on: June 17, 2015, 05:52:05 AM »
IJIS:

10,207,482 km2(June 16, 2015)down 76,315 km2 3rd lowest for the date.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1351 on: June 18, 2015, 05:29:15 AM »
IJIS:

10,137,855 km2(June 17, 2015)down 69,627 km2 4th lowest measured for the date 2010, 2011 and 2012 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1352 on: June 19, 2015, 06:09:00 AM »
IJIS:

10,110,833 km2(June 18, 2015)down 27,022 km2 from previous and 4th lowest measured.
Have a ice day!

SekeRob

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1353 on: June 19, 2015, 09:55:47 AM »
It's visually really too close to call who's 3rd or 4th, the tracking of the green year [can't make out from legend which is which], is amazing. Not that I think it's not homo sapiens sapiens causing this on full lemming track, but I'd rather have it freeze over so Shell can't go in to lower the drillbit. It's rather stark that now the arctic ocean acidification is rapidly threatening the biosphere too.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1354 on: June 19, 2015, 04:20:34 PM »
Are you the same SekeRob who produced charts such as this and this and this? I've been missing their updates. :'(
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1355 on: June 20, 2015, 02:29:11 AM »
Are you the same SekeRob who produced charts such as this and this and this? I've been missing their updates. :'(
You  can see at least  one of these graphs updated here:
https://sites.google.com/site/pettitclimategraphs/sea-ice-area#asiammdpdsb
It  also  provides a description of the source bu I'm not sure whether its the source of the graph or the data.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1356 on: June 20, 2015, 04:16:23 AM »
Thanks,
Jim Pettit's presentation is/was for sea ice area and Seke Rob's is/was for sea ice extent. Alas, neither is up-to-date.   :'( :'(
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1357 on: June 20, 2015, 09:43:09 AM »
IJIS:

10,096,666 km2(June 19, 2015)down 41,189 km2 from previous  and 4th lowest measured.
Have a ice day!

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1358 on: June 20, 2015, 03:13:16 PM »
Thanks,
Jim Pettit's presentation is/was for sea ice area and Seke Rob's is/was for sea ice extent. Alas, neither is up-to-date.   :'( :'(

Unfortunately, time-intensive personal matters intruded. But I'm working on all of my ice stuff as we speak.

TerryM

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1359 on: June 20, 2015, 10:19:36 PM »
Seke & Jim


I for one miss both of your charts. A plethora of information in a single graph!


Terry

Vergent

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1360 on: June 21, 2015, 07:04:17 AM »
Jim,

Your visualizations rival the best our tax dollars are achieving. Please, please, update them. If money is the problem, go Crowdfunding. I will pay.

Verg

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1361 on: June 21, 2015, 09:13:39 AM »
IJIS:

10,086,965 km2(June 20, 2015)down 9,701 km2 from previous and 4th lowest measured.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1362 on: June 21, 2015, 09:14:35 AM »
Houston we have a problem ;)
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1363 on: June 21, 2015, 09:25:53 AM »
At this pace it will hit from record high to record low compactness. Among other things.

epiphyte

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1364 on: June 21, 2015, 08:41:46 PM »
I think that these cycles between compact/diffuse ice at the edges are increasing the melt rate by encouraging the mixing of warm water & ice toward the edge of the pack. especially in the Fram + Barents Sea. Right now, for example, the amorphous band (where there are no discernable floes) is expanding to the south, increasing the extent. tomorrow or the next day, that ice will have melted.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1365 on: June 22, 2015, 05:24:21 AM »
IJIS:

10,031,674 km2(June 21, 2015)down 55,291 km2  from previous and 4th lowest measured.
Have a ice day!

anotheramethyst

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1366 on: June 22, 2015, 08:53:56 AM »
Thanks,
Jim Pettit's presentation is/was for sea ice area and Seke Rob's is/was for sea ice extent. Alas, neither is up-to-date.   :'( :'(

Unfortunately, time-intensive personal matters intruded. But I'm working on all of my ice stuff as we speak.


when i just started checking the sea ice in 2013 i started with neven's blog and gradually moved to the graphs page when i had learned enough... now i know enough to read the forum, but i still don't understand a lot.  i just wanted to thank you because your graphs are still among my favorites.  i know that must take a lot of time to make them.  u helped make another ice junkie :)

woodstea

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1367 on: June 22, 2015, 04:39:53 PM »
when i just started checking the sea ice in 2013 i started with neven's blog and gradually moved to the graphs page when i had learned enough... now i know enough to read the forum, but i still don't understand a lot.  i just wanted to thank you because your graphs are still among my favorites.  i know that must take a lot of time to make them.  u helped make another ice junkie :)

Similar story for me. That "days spent below" graph is my favorite, one of the best visualizations I've seen for showing the story of ice decline over the last few decades.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1368 on: June 23, 2015, 05:29:10 AM »
IJIS:

9,991,615 km2(June 22, 2015)down 40,059 km2 from previous and5th lowest measured, 2010 - 2011 - 2012 and 2014 was lower.
Have a ice day!

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1369 on: June 23, 2015, 02:20:37 PM »
To date, this June has seen one the lowest total decreases on the record, as shown in this graphic:



As it stands, more than twice as much ice had been lost by this date in June of 2012 than has been lost so far this month.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1370 on: June 23, 2015, 02:26:23 PM »
We were looking for the "June cliff", but we got a "June stable shelf"
(My forecasting abilities being what they are [that is, aren't], watch out last-week-of-June!)
:D
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things because "we cannot negotiate with the melting point of ice"

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1371 on: June 24, 2015, 05:43:13 AM »
IJIS:

9,964,884 km2(June 23, 2015)down 26,731 km2 from previous and 5th lowest.
Have a ice day!

epiphyte

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1372 on: June 24, 2015, 08:22:52 AM »
To date, this June has seen one the lowest total decreases on the record, as shown in this graphic:



As it stands, more than twice as much ice had been lost by this date in June of 2012 than has been lost so far this month.

Twice as much extent, sure.

Twice as much ice? (i.e. actual volume). Doubtful, I'd say...

... and there's not very much left to lose. So it's not about how much has been lost, as how much there is to go.

I have said on this forum many times over the past three years that If the ice is uniform in thickness, most of the extent will go all at once. From what I've seen so far, this year is still a candidate for the big crash.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1373 on: June 24, 2015, 12:09:39 PM »
To date, this June has seen one the lowest total decreases on the record, as shown in this graphic:

{ snip}

As it stands, more than twice as much ice had been lost by this date in June of 2012 than has been lost so far this month.

Twice as much extent, sure.

Twice as much ice? (i.e. actual volume). Doubtful, I'd say...

... and there's not very much left to lose. So it's not about how much has been lost, as how much there is to go.

I have said on this forum many times over the past three years that If the ice is uniform in thickness, most of the extent will go all at once. From what I've seen so far, this year is still a candidate for the big crash.

There is no doubt  that  because of the low maximum there has been much less thin ice this year.

Measured by  extent this year has had about 25% less of thin ice compared to 2012 and about  15% less than 2010 and 2012. In the range 0.6 - 1.1 mtr thick, according to Chris Reynolds PIOMAS April distribution, 2015 had only 1.25 M km^2 compared to about 1.96 in 2010 and 2012.  This is the ice that usually melts out in early June and indeed it has all now gone.

Even allowing for this 2015, has been slow over the past three weeks and it will be interesting to see if it starts to move again soon. 
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Nightvid Cole

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1374 on: June 24, 2015, 04:15:05 PM »
To date, this June has seen one the lowest total decreases on the record, as shown in this graphic:

{ snip}

As it stands, more than twice as much ice had been lost by this date in June of 2012 than has been lost so far this month.

Twice as much extent, sure.

Twice as much ice? (i.e. actual volume). Doubtful, I'd say...

... and there's not very much left to lose. So it's not about how much has been lost, as how much there is to go.

I have said on this forum many times over the past three years that If the ice is uniform in thickness, most of the extent will go all at once. From what I've seen so far, this year is still a candidate for the big crash.

There is no doubt  that  because of the low maximum there has been much less thin ice this year.

Measured by  extent this year has had about 25% less of thin ice compared to 2012 and about  15% less than 2010 and 2012. In the range 0.6 - 1.1 mtr thick, according to Chris Reynolds PIOMAS April distribution, 2015 had only 1.25 M km^2 compared to about 1.96 in 2010 and 2012.  This is the ice that usually melts out in early June and indeed it has all now gone.

Even allowing for this 2015, has been slow over the past three weeks and it will be interesting to see if it starts to move again soon.

I don't expect large drops on IJIS extent until next month, because at this time of year the big determining factors are Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay, which appear to not be in an extremely advanced state of disintegration like they were at this time in other years with large drops in late June. Compare this year to 2007, 2010, and 2011, especially in Hudson Bay:














seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1375 on: June 24, 2015, 04:35:37 PM »
Looking at those maps, this year ice front and melt looks so much to 2011.
True the stall of some peripheral areas. July, weather abiding, is going to being big melt.

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1376 on: June 24, 2015, 06:54:03 PM »
To date, this June has seen one the lowest total decreases on the record, as shown in this graphic:

{ snip}

As it stands, more than twice as much ice had been lost by this date in June of 2012 than has been lost so far this month.

Twice as much extent, sure.

Twice as much ice? (i.e. actual volume). Doubtful, I'd say...

... and there's not very much left to lose. So it's not about how much has been lost, as how much there is to go.

I have said on this forum many times over the past three years that If the ice is uniform in thickness, most of the extent will go all at once. From what I've seen so far, this year is still a candidate for the big crash.

There is no doubt  that  because of the low maximum there has been much less thin ice this year.

Measured by  extent this year has had about 25% less of thin ice compared to 2012 and about  15% less than 2010 and 2012. In the range 0.6 - 1.1 mtr thick, according to Chris Reynolds PIOMAS April distribution, 2015 had only 1.25 M km^2 compared to about 1.96 in 2010 and 2012.  This is the ice that usually melts out in early June and indeed it has all now gone.

Even allowing for this 2015, has been slow over the past three weeks and it will be interesting to see if it starts to move again soon.
Jumping on David and others bandwagon - low max is part of the cause here, as a LOT of ice did not form in peripheral regions that contribute heavily to June melt.

Considering the higher 2015 Hudson, Baffin and Kara extent vis-a-vis some years, we are a lot closer to 2007, 2011 and 2012 than numbers otherwise might suggest.

Further, there is ice in some areas - specifically the ESS and Laptev - which at the end of the refreeze due to  winter export was left thin and weak.  If you look at the Siberian coast thread, this exactly the ice getting clobbered right NOW in a big way.  The disintegration of that extent, en masse will contribute significantly to Julys numbers and likely catch 2015 up with the lowest three years.
This space for Rent.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1377 on: June 25, 2015, 06:19:47 AM »
IJIS:

9,916,806 km2(June 24, 2015) down 74,809 km2 from previous and 6th lowest measured.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1378 on: June 25, 2015, 01:37:32 PM »
Definitely no June extent cliff this year (at least not yet, and time is running out). Between 01 May and 24 May this year, extent decreased by 1,431k km2; by comparison, just 962k has been lost between 01 June and 24 June.

Here's an update of the chart I posted several days ago; I think it nicely illustrates the issue:



Having said that: i believe July will see significant drops in both extent and area--perhaps the largest July decreases on record.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1379 on: June 26, 2015, 06:21:36 AM »
IJIS:

9,883,311 km2(June 25, 2015)down 33,495 km2 from previous and 6th lowest measured.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1380 on: June 27, 2015, 09:05:06 AM »
IJIS:

9,817,719 km2(June 26, 2015)down 65,592 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1381 on: June 28, 2015, 05:24:30 AM »
IJIS:


9,731,983 km2
(June 27, 2015)down 85,736 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1382 on: June 29, 2015, 05:22:23 AM »
IJIS:

9,627,576 km2(June 28, 2015)down 104,407 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1383 on: June 30, 2015, 06:06:39 AM »
IJIS:

9,542,138 km2(June 29, 2015)down 85,438 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1384 on: July 01, 2015, 05:29:55 AM »
IJIS:

9,482,316 km2(June 30, 2015)down 59,822 km2 from previous, and 7th lowest.

Have a ice day!

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1385 on: July 01, 2015, 01:16:02 PM »
For the month of June, extent experienced one of its smallest decreases on record. SIE dropped by just 1.4 million km2 for the month, which is nearly a million square kilometers less than it fell in either 2010 (2.31) or last year (2.33), and more than a million less than was lost in 2012 (2.44). In fact, the month just past marks the first time on record that May saw a much greater extent decrease than did June.



On a related note: SIE is currently 7th lowest for the date. That makes this only the third day this year--and the first since mid-February--that extent has been so far out of first place. And it should be noted that extent's 53-day stretch in the top 3 ended just two weeks ago.
« Last Edit: July 01, 2015, 03:44:02 PM by Jim Pettit »

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1386 on: July 02, 2015, 05:42:18 AM »
IJIS:

9,431,704 km2(July 1, 2015)down 50,612 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1387 on: July 03, 2015, 05:26:45 AM »
IJIS:

9,387,654 km2(July 2, 2015)down 44,050 km2 from previous.
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1388 on: July 03, 2015, 01:35:29 PM »
IJIS:

9,387,654 km2(July 2, 2015)down 44,050 km2 from previous.

...and 8th lowest.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1389 on: July 03, 2015, 03:01:48 PM »
IJIS:

9,387,654 km2(July 2, 2015)down 44,050 km2 from previous.

The month  is only two days old, and already the July 2015 decrease has been one of the smallest on record. Over the previous ten years, the average 01-JUL - 02 JUL SIE loss has been 195k km2; this year it's been a trifling 95k.

As Nightvid noted, SIE is now 8th lowest. That's the first time this year it's been that far removed from first place. And after spending a good part of the year several hundred thousand square kilometers lower than 2012--including a few days with a lead of greater than one million square kilometers--2015 is for the first time this year more than half-a-million km2 behind 2015.

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1390 on: July 03, 2015, 04:27:17 PM »
2015 is for the first time this year more than half-a-million km2 behind 2015.

Which is quite amazing if you think about  it.  ;)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1391 on: July 04, 2015, 08:14:42 AM »
IJIS:

9,341,259 km2(July 3, 2015)down 46,395 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1392 on: July 05, 2015, 06:46:57 AM »
IJIS:

9,284,536 km2(July 4, 2015)down 56,723 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1393 on: July 05, 2015, 01:17:23 PM »
IJIS:

9,284,536 km2(July 4, 2015)down 56,723 km2 from previous.

Far from the madding crowd, this number keeps happily going toward the 2000's average.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1394 on: July 06, 2015, 05:30:14 AM »
IJIS:

9,209,077 km2(July 5, 2015)down 75,459 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Vergent

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1395 on: July 06, 2015, 05:53:03 AM »
IJIS:

9,284,536 km2(July 4, 2015)down 56,723 km2 from previous.

Far from the madding crowd, this number keeps happily going toward the 2000's average.

Are you sure?

Verg

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1396 on: July 06, 2015, 06:21:03 AM »
IJIS:

9,284,536 km2(July 4, 2015)down 56,723 km2 from previous.

Far from the madding crowd, this number keeps happily going toward the 2000's average.

Are you sure?

Verg

No. I was being humoristic,  large drops to come (some day ... 8) )

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1397 on: July 07, 2015, 06:57:48 AM »
IJIS:

9,096,337 km2(July 6, 2015)down 112,740 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1398 on: July 08, 2015, 05:42:52 AM »
IJIS:

8,932,745 km2(July 7, 2015)down 163,592 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1399 on: July 09, 2015, 05:41:44 AM »
IJIS:

8,833,004 km2(July 8, 2015)down 99,741 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!