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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1400 on: July 10, 2015, 05:59:59 AM »
IJIS:

 8,750,785 km2(July 9, 2015)down 82,219 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1401 on: July 11, 2015, 08:37:05 AM »
IJIS:

8,660,819 km2(July 10, 2015)down 89,966 km2 from previous.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1402 on: July 11, 2015, 09:55:38 AM »
IJIS SIE decrease has picked up, but not as much as I thought it would.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1403 on: July 11, 2015, 10:29:24 AM »
IJIS SIE decrease has picked up, but not as much as I thought it would.

I won't bother you with a +53k uptick in the ESS, in the end it is just a bump in the road.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1404 on: July 11, 2015, 03:01:35 PM »
IJIS SIE decrease has picked up, but not as much as I thought it would.

Indeed. In fact, extent continues to lag further and further behind many previous years including 2012 and 2014, with the lag growing larger with each passing day. The current extent is 684k higher than that measured in 2012 on the same day; that's the largest gap so far this year between the two seasons, and that's all the more surprising given that just a few short months ago, 2014 had more than a million km2 less ice than did 2012.

One telling statistic: for the last ten years, here are the number of extent century drops recorded over the two-week period just passed:

2006: 4
2007: 9
2008: 0
2009: 6
2010: 2
2011: 7
2012: 8
2013: 13
2014: 8
2015: 3

Obviously century breaks aren't the most accurate statistic around--but the lack of them this summer certainly fills in parts of the overall picture.

Nightvid Cole

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1405 on: July 11, 2015, 03:35:54 PM »
IJIS SIE decrease has picked up, but not as much as I thought it would.

Indeed. In fact, extent continues to lag further and further behind many previous years including 2012 and 2014, with the lag growing larger with each passing day. The current extent is 684k higher than that measured in 2012 on the same day; that's the largest gap so far this year between the two seasons, and that's all the more surprising given that just a few short months ago, 2014 had more than a million km2 less ice than did 2012.

One telling statistic: for the last ten years, here are the number of extent century drops recorded over the two-week period just passed:

2006: 4
2007: 9
2008: 0
2009: 6
2010: 2
2011: 7
2012: 8
2013: 13
2014: 8
2015: 3

Obviously century breaks aren't the most accurate statistic around--but the lack of them this summer certainly fills in parts of the overall picture.

Given the amount of ice yet to melt in Hudson and Baffin Bay, and the large regions of low-concentration ice in Chukchi and Beaufort Seas which is unusual for this early in the season, I predict:

1. At some point this month, IJIS extent will experience a dramatic acceleration in its decrease, with many century breaks;

2. By July 31st, IJIS extent should be within the lowest 3; and I would not be surprised if it is the all-time low for July 31st.

Furthermore, I would not be even slightly surprised if the *average* daily decrease between 7/10 and 7/31 is in excess of 100k km^2...

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1406 on: July 11, 2015, 03:52:47 PM »
I don't think it gets much clearer than this:



Two problems:

1)  There is MORE THIN ICE NOW than in 2012
2)  There is FAR LESS THICK ICE NOW than in 2012

There is more "extent" NOW than in 2012.....but that extent IS IN BAD SHAPE....
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1407 on: July 11, 2015, 04:22:18 PM »
Quote
1. At some point this month, IJIS extent will experience a dramatic acceleration in its decrease, with many century breaks;

Only if a serious Beaufort Gyre kicks up and persists. Or if the heat continues to pound the ice for another few weeks. But I think that would translate in SIE numbers no sooner than August.

Quote
2. By July 31st, IJIS extent should be within the lowest 3; and I would not be surprised if it is the all-time low for July 31st.

That'd be really cool to watch, but I don't think it's going to happen. Unless there's some freak weather hitting the weakened ice...

Quote
I don't think it gets much clearer than this:

This can't be correct. It would've shown up in the SIE and SIA numbers.
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E. Smith

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1408 on: July 11, 2015, 04:26:58 PM »
Extent was lower 2012, no doubt.
But isn't area now lower, when you exclude Hudson, Baffin and Kara?

Bob Wallace

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1409 on: July 11, 2015, 04:58:27 PM »
Couldn't a case be made for SIE SIA statistics which drop the Hudson and Baffin Bays? 

A set of statistics which report the condition of the "big bowl"....

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1410 on: July 11, 2015, 05:41:45 PM »
For 2015 SIE to catch up to 2012 by July 31st would require average daily drops of 122K, for 21 straight days.

For 2015 SIE to catch up to 2012 by August 31st would require average daily drops of 122K, for 52 straight days.

Unless we start seeing a number of multi-century drops in the next few weeks, it's going to be hard to set anew record this year.  We may need a "Super GAC-12" in late August to stir up and flush out a massive amount of rubble.
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1411 on: July 11, 2015, 06:05:40 PM »


I wouldn't be surprised in the least if 2015 caught up to 2012.

In 2012.....the central part of Canada (north to south) was VERY WARM.  This was the year that the US set all kinds of crazy records in March of 2012 (the LOW for one day for Marquette, Michigan was higher than the OLD RECORD HIGH).

A couple things stick out for me in looking at the above maps:

1)  The concentration levels of 2015 are lower than 2012
2)  The Beaufort, Hudson Bay, and areas around Greenland are the areas where 2012 was way ahead of 2015.
3)  The  Chukchi sea is the one area where 2015 is way ahead of 2012.  And that MAY prove to be critical...as it allows more warm Pacific waters to melt away the ice in the Beaufort and the CAB on that side of the Arctic.

Again....won't be surprised EITHER WAY....it is only a waiting game....and the game is winding down to the last few minutes (years) before the Arctic ice is gone at the end of melt season.  This year.....highly doubtful.  2016....possibly (again...I think MOST of the ice will be gone next year)....2017....2018?

I do know that the ice is SUSEPTIBLE to "going" WITHIN the next few years....and I suspect most of it will be gone (except for a smattering here and there) by NEXT September.



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Bob Wallace

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1412 on: July 11, 2015, 06:18:55 PM »

Unless we start seeing a number of multi-century drops in the next few weeks, it's going to be hard to set anew record this year.  We may need a "Super GAC-12" in late August to stir up and flush out a massive amount of rubble.

I'm in no way predicting a larger melt in 2015 than what happened in 2012, but it seems like we need to pay a lot of attention to thickness and concentration.  A very large but thin and broken area of ice could disappear very quickly.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1413 on: July 11, 2015, 06:24:01 PM »

Unless we start seeing a number of multi-century drops in the next few weeks, it's going to be hard to set anew record this year.  We may need a "Super GAC-12" in late August to stir up and flush out a massive amount of rubble.

I'm in no way predicting a larger melt in 2015 than what happened in 2012, but it seems like we need to pay a lot of attention to thickness and concentration.  A very large but thin and broken area of ice could disappear very quickly.

I would not be surprised to see some surprises later in July / August.
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1414 on: July 11, 2015, 06:54:03 PM »
I don't think it gets much clearer than this:



Two problems:

1)  There is MORE THIN ICE NOW than in 2012
2)  There is FAR LESS THICK ICE NOW than in 2012

There is more "extent" NOW than in 2012.....but that extent IS IN BAD SHAPE....

I believe these are different models after all. They did some upgrade to the ARC model in 2013 (see version number at the top of the unedited pics).

In any case, the current HYCOM models (GLB included) are predicting exaggerated losses of concentration and extent these days. Nick_Naylor counted pixels a week ago or so, and the prediction was like 2 million plus extent decrease in one week including a -700K in a single day. It could not be.

BTW why comparing July 7 2012 against July 10, 2015 ? There days may make a big difference now in July.

Edit: I mean, in your other post with Uni Bremen maps
 

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1415 on: July 11, 2015, 06:56:01 PM »
Quote
large regions of low-concentration ice in Chukchi and Beaufort Seas which is unusual for this early in the season
Quote
The concentration levels of 2015 are lower than 2012


Using Jaxa L3 sea ice concentration:

           Diff 2015-2012 (in 103km2)
           Extent       Area
CAB         +41.3      +26.4
Beau       +186.6     +195.4
Chuk       -180.8     -163.0
ESS         -29.0      -68.3   
Laptev     +118.2     +135.9
          ------------------
Tot Basin  +135.3     +126.4


Of that lower concentration is little to be seen, actually it's higher in Beaufort and Chukchi.
The difference are relatively small though. I think it may stay undecided for some time and the the real test is whether 2015 can keep declining into August when 2012 made the difference.

Bob Wallace

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1416 on: July 11, 2015, 07:47:32 PM »
Quote
The difference are relatively small though.

A percentage difference would be helpful to understand the relative difference.

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1417 on: July 11, 2015, 07:58:54 PM »
Quote
The difference are relatively small though.

A percentage difference would be helpful to understand the relative difference.

It's a two-day difference out of 50 days left. Like 2 seconds of advantage in the last round lap (~50 sec) of a 1500 m race. Only that we already know 2012 did not slow down very much from now till September.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2015, 09:24:40 PM by seaicesailor »

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1418 on: July 11, 2015, 08:27:51 PM »
I think the main advantage of 2012 is that big cyclone in August. If this year keeps its relatively low export, or just normal export, I personally doubt it will catch 2012 all the way to the bottom, though it  might very possibly catch 2007 and 2011.

Bob Wallace

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1419 on: July 11, 2015, 09:31:26 PM »
Quote
The difference are relatively small though.

A percentage difference would be helpful to understand the relative difference.

It's a two-day difference out of 50 days left. Like 2 seconds of advantage in the last round lap (~50 sec) of a 1500 m race. Only that we already know 2012 did not slow down very much from now till September.

So about a 4% difference now.  (Obviously we don't know what happens next....)

Nightvid Cole

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1420 on: July 12, 2015, 12:10:58 AM »

Unless we start seeing a number of multi-century drops in the next few weeks, it's going to be hard to set anew record this year.  We may need a "Super GAC-12" in late August to stir up and flush out a massive amount of rubble.

I'm in no way predicting a larger melt in 2015 than what happened in 2012, but it seems like we need to pay a lot of attention to thickness and concentration.  A very large but thin and broken area of ice could disappear very quickly.

I would not be surprised to see some surprises later in July / August.

If you wouldn't be surprised to see it, then is it really a surprise?   :D

werther

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1421 on: July 12, 2015, 10:38:45 AM »
Morning all... where's Espen?
Bad night perhaps?
Let's do the wake-up call: nice century-break: -112936.
Think it's ESS contributing now. Although just a slight zone along the coast, an ice-free NE passage is getting closer.
In the CAA, cracking is on the way too. McClure Strait, entrance of Prince of Wales Strait, Barrow Strait near Cornwallis.
BTW the 'Laptev Bite' made some progress too.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1422 on: July 12, 2015, 10:40:53 AM »
IJIS:

8,547,883 km2(July 11, 2015)down 112,936 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1423 on: July 12, 2015, 10:41:44 AM »
Morning all... where's Espen?
Bad night perhaps?
Let's do the wake-up call: nice century-break: -112936.
Think it's ESS contributing now. Although just a slight zone along the coast, an ice-free NE passage is getting closer.
In the CAA, cracking is on the way too. McClure Strait, entrance of Prince of Wales Strait, Barrow Strait near Cornwallis.
BTW the 'Laptev Bite' made some progress too.

Just a lengthy party ;)
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Steven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1424 on: July 12, 2015, 02:11:17 PM »
Extent was lower 2012, no doubt.
But isn't area now lower, when you exclude Hudson, Baffin and Kara?

The graph below shows Arctic sea ice area from 1 to 31 July for the last 10 years, with Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and Kara Sea excluded.

The choice of the excluded regions is somewhat arbitrary.  Anyway, 2015 is currently 3rd lowest in this graph, behind 2012 and 2007.

For the calculation I used the regional sea ice area data (based on NSIDC sea ice concentration data) on this webpage by Wipneus.


« Last Edit: July 12, 2015, 02:22:31 PM by Steven »

Jim Hunt

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1425 on: July 12, 2015, 03:47:34 PM »
The graph below shows Arctic sea ice area from 1 to 31 July for the last 10 years, with Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and Kara Sea excluded.

Thanks Steven. You beat me to it!

I was going to either include the Kara Sea or exclude the Barents Sea as well, if you can see the implied question?

P.S. I've just discovered that Wipneus beat me to it as well!

http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,382.msg56478.html#msg56478

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Steven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1426 on: July 12, 2015, 05:52:30 PM »
I was going to either include the Kara Sea or exclude the Barents Sea as well, if you can see the implied question?

I used the regions that wanderer suggested.  Actually I prefer to include both the Barents Sea and the Northern part of Kara Sea, because both of them are directly adjacent to the Arctic Basin.  (The sea ice in the Southern Kara Sea, east of Novaya Zemlya, is somewhat detached from the rest of the pack.)  But there seem to be no separate data for the Northern Kara vs. Southern Kara Sea.
 
« Last Edit: July 12, 2015, 06:06:56 PM by Steven »

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1427 on: July 13, 2015, 05:42:54 AM »
IJIS:

8,461,055 km2(July 12, 2015)down 86,828 km2 from previous.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1428 on: July 13, 2015, 01:24:18 PM »
Extent continues to s-l-o-w-l-y decrease. It's currently in 8th place,  behind 2011--by 769k km2--2012, 2014, 2007, 2013, 2010, and 2006. In fact, while 2015 isn't performing quite as badly as June--which saw the smallest drop for that month since the 1990s--July to-date nevertheless lags behind five of the past six seasons, with the gap growing every day (for instance, 2013 fell 52% more for the month-to-date than has 2015).

I raised my vote for minimum a few weeks ago; I find myself increasingly wishing I could do so again... :)

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1429 on: July 13, 2015, 02:08:34 PM »
Extent continues to s-l-o-w-l-y decrease. It's currently in 8th place,  behind 2011--by 769k km2--2012, 2014, 2007, 2013, 2010, and 2006. In fact, while 2015 isn't performing quite as badly as June--which saw the smallest drop for that month since the 1990s--July to-date nevertheless lags behind five of the past six seasons, with the gap growing every day (for instance, 2013 fell 52% more for the month-to-date than has 2015).

I raised my vote for minimum a few weeks ago; I find myself increasingly wishing I could do so again... :)

This new product shows a different picture

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-extent-multiprod.png


Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1430 on: July 14, 2015, 05:48:39 AM »
IJIS:

8,335,581 km2(July 13, 2015)down 125,474 km2 from previous.
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epiphyte

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1431 on: July 14, 2015, 07:52:34 AM »
Extent continues to s-l-o-w-l-y decrease. It's currently in 8th place,  behind 2011--by 769k km2--2012, 2014, 2007, 2013, 2010, and 2006. In fact, while 2015 isn't performing quite as badly as June--which saw the smallest drop for that month since the 1990s--July to-date nevertheless lags behind five of the past six seasons, with the gap growing every day (for instance, 2013 fell 52% more for the month-to-date than has 2015).

I raised my vote for minimum a few weeks ago; I find myself increasingly wishing I could do so again... :)

That's intriguing... I just lowered mine!

..So which of us is the hare, and which the tortoise?


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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1432 on: July 14, 2015, 10:17:01 AM »
Extent continues to s-l-o-w-l-y decrease. It's currently in 8th place,  behind 2011--by 769k km2--2012, 2014, 2007, 2013, 2010, and 2006. In fact, while 2015 isn't performing quite as badly as June--which saw the smallest drop for that month since the 1990s--July to-date nevertheless lags behind five of the past six seasons, with the gap growing every day (for instance, 2013 fell 52% more for the month-to-date than has 2015).

I raised my vote for minimum a few weeks ago; I find myself increasingly wishing I could do so again... :)

That's intriguing... I just lowered mine!

..So which of us is the hare, and which the tortoise?
Perhaps you both ended up in the same spot!  Its hard to ignore the fact that  there is about 750K km^2 of ice in Hudson and Baffin bays that  isn't normally there and which has never failed to melt  out in August,  so the artificially  high extent  at the moment  will  disappear as thse areas catch up with themselves.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1433 on: July 14, 2015, 10:55:01 AM »
I'm starting to wonder if Baffin or Hudson might surprise us... they're being really stubborn.

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1434 on: July 14, 2015, 11:35:12 AM »
I'm starting to wonder if Baffin or Hudson might surprise us... they're being really stubborn.

I don't think so, Oren, all that ice will be gone sometime August, see the rates of extent decrease.
That HYCOM prediction of Hudson ice vanishing in just one week ...


Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1435 on: July 15, 2015, 05:43:16 AM »
IJIS:

8,255,586 km2(July 14, 2015)down 79,995 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1436 on: July 16, 2015, 06:07:27 AM »
IJIS:

8,209,972 km2(July 15, 2015)down 45,614 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1437 on: July 17, 2015, 05:40:41 AM »
IJIS:

8,054,919 km2(July 16, 2015)down 155,053 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1438 on: July 17, 2015, 09:09:06 AM »
Impressive.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1439 on: July 17, 2015, 09:13:40 AM »
IJIS:

8,054,919 km2(July 16, 2015)down 155,053 km2 from previous.

Some wild daily fluctuations, but strangely every pair of days for the last 6 days has summed to ~200k.
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1440 on: July 17, 2015, 01:02:27 PM »
Interesting (Maybe) SIE Fact Of The Day: July extent loss has now exceeded that for the entire month of June. Doing so by the 16th is something that has seldom if ever happened before. Over the past ten years, month-to-date decreases through July 16 have averaged 74% of losses for the entire month of June. That's not, of course, because this month has been gangbusters; in fact, losses for the month-to-date are running below the ten-year average. Rather, it's because June's extent decrease was so small--by far the smallest in the past ten years.
« Last Edit: July 17, 2015, 01:07:49 PM by Jim Pettit »

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1441 on: July 17, 2015, 01:09:09 PM »
What is the saying...."there are lies, damned lies, and statistics." ;D

Next month certainly could be interesting....

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1442 on: July 17, 2015, 06:50:57 PM »
Interesting (Maybe) SIE Fact Of The Day: July extent loss has now exceeded that for the entire month of June. Doing so by the 16th is something that has seldom if ever happened before. Over the past ten years, month-to-date decreases through July 16 have averaged 74% of losses for the entire month of June. That's not, of course, because this month has been gangbusters; in fact, losses for the month-to-date are running below the ten-year average. Rather, it's because June's extent decrease was so small--by far the smallest in the past ten years.

Although it is only my personal opinion: during strong El Nino years generally the western Arctic loses sea ice (as occurred before June), while the eastern Arctic loses less sea ice (witness the current sea ice in Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay); however, now that ice loss in Hudson & Baffin are now accelerating the rate of sea ice loss is temporarily accelerating, which may bring us to one of the top 3 to 4 lowest Arctic sea ice extents by early August.  Whether the sea ice extent continues decreasing faster than average during August, or not, to me seems to depend a lot on the strength of cyclonic activity (or not) in the Arctic during this key month.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1443 on: July 18, 2015, 08:13:44 AM »

Down 134K today

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1444 on: July 18, 2015, 09:39:33 AM »
IJIS:

7,920,694 km2(July 17, 2015)diown 134,225 km2 from previous.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1445 on: July 18, 2015, 04:02:21 PM »
I'd ask if we can say cliff, but I'll wait a few more days.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1446 on: July 18, 2015, 07:09:29 PM »
Interesting (Maybe) SIE Fact Of The Day: July extent loss has now exceeded that for the entire month of June. Doing so by the 16th is something that has seldom if ever happened before. Over the past ten years, month-to-date decreases through July 16 have averaged 74% of losses for the entire month of June. That's not, of course, because this month has been gangbusters; in fact, losses for the month-to-date are running below the ten-year average. Rather, it's because June's extent decrease was so small--by far the smallest in the past ten years.

Although it is only my personal opinion: during strong El Nino years generally the western Arctic loses sea ice (as occurred before June), while the eastern Arctic loses less sea ice (witness the current sea ice in Hudson Bay and Baffin Bay); however, now that ice loss in Hudson & Baffin are now accelerating the rate of sea ice loss is temporarily accelerating, which may bring us to one of the top 3 to 4 lowest Arctic sea ice extents by early August.  Whether the sea ice extent continues decreasing faster than average during August, or not, to me seems to depend a lot on the strength of cyclonic activity (or not) in the Arctic during this key month.

As indicated in the attached image most of the recent drop in ASIE is occurring in Hudson Bay, Baffin Bay and the East Siberian Sea areas (that are relatively easy targets); while the real question come August is what will happen in the Central Arctic Basin and Beaufort Sea area.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1447 on: July 18, 2015, 09:40:30 PM »
June was just the early "feel out" round of the fight where the other fighter was "softened up".  July and August will be the "knock out" rounds.... 8)

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1448 on: July 19, 2015, 03:16:04 AM »
As has been pointed out previously in other threads, perhaps more relevant than overall numbers are these new Arctic Basin-specific graphs from Wipneus (thanks!!), which exclude Hudson, Baffin, etc. They show that area and extent for '12 - '15 are in a virtual dead heat as of this week, but diverge by the end of June.

Actually area, which appears (not surprisingly) to lead extent, has just begun to diverge, especially for IJIS, with '15 tracking '12. So, I guess the next two weeks may be rather interesting, especially given the weather forecasts...


https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-extent-multiprod.png


https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-area-multiprod.png
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1449 on: July 19, 2015, 05:22:34 AM »
IJIS:

 7,767,001 km2(July 18, 2015)down 153,693 km2 from previous.
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