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Andir

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1450 on: July 19, 2015, 08:19:34 AM »
Hi Espen,
The graph is the One from yesterday?

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1451 on: July 20, 2015, 05:41:14 AM »
IJIS:

7,661,816 km2(July 19, 2015)down 105,185 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1452 on: July 21, 2015, 05:22:25 AM »
IJIS:

7,522,508 km2(July 20, 2015)down 139,308 km2 from previous.
« Last Edit: July 21, 2015, 11:59:44 AM by Espen »
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1453 on: July 21, 2015, 06:44:55 AM »
Epsen, I see the file was updated, but is the graph updated?   The 2015 line looks to be in the same place for the 20th.  My apologies if it's my eyesight that is off.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1454 on: July 22, 2015, 06:43:43 AM »
IJIS:

7,415,444 km2(July 21, 2015)down 107,064 km2 from previous.
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Nightvid Cole

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1455 on: July 22, 2015, 03:40:34 PM »
IJIS:

7,415,444 km2(July 21, 2015)down 107,064 km2 from previous.

...and 5th lowest for the date.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1456 on: July 23, 2015, 06:13:27 AM »
IJIS:

7,301,892 km2(July 22, 2015)down 113,552 km2 from previous.
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Deeenngee

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1457 on: July 23, 2015, 11:54:40 PM »
Espen

For your consideration: a graph (attached) that adds an average for the 2010s, the range for the 2010s, and removes all the individual years apart from 2015. Visually I like this approach as you see the current year in the context of all the recent years, i.e. the shaded range for the 2010s. I know some like to see all the recent years plotted in order to compare with current year, but this method gives a bit more of an overview.

Anyway, this type could complement your daily charts, perhaps as a weekly update. 

(I haven't worked out how to insert the image within this text, so it's attached)
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1458 on: July 24, 2015, 07:15:49 AM »
IJIS:

7,201,855 km2(July 23, 2015)down 100.037 km2 from previous.
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1459 on: July 24, 2015, 07:56:42 AM »
Eight straight days of loses over 100,000 km2 and a total loss of just over a million km2 in those eight days.  OK, cliff.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1460 on: July 24, 2015, 02:10:53 PM »
Eight straight days of loses over 100,000 km2 and a total loss of just over a million km2 in those eight days.  OK, cliff.
Well, as close as 2015 has come to a cliff, yes. Keep in mind that consecutive century breaks aren't all that uncommon, though this year's string is the latest one on record that's comprised of eight or more days. By way of comparison, 2013 put together an 11-day string of centuries, followed by a seven day string; in fact, 2013 saw a 21-day stretch containing 19 centuries. 2011 saw an 8-day string in early July; and 2012 had two 7-day strings, one in early June and the other in early August (that last courtesy of the GAC).

Over the past ten years, 2007, 2009, 2011, and 2013 saw greater extent loss in July. And, thanks to June's bizarrely low numbers, the decrease for the MJJ period-to-date is the smallest it's been since 2008, as seen in the graph below:


Nightvid Cole

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1461 on: July 24, 2015, 03:25:20 PM »
IJIS:

7,201,855 km2(July 23, 2015)down 100.037 km2 from previous.

Have you converted from American to European now, using a period instead of a comma for daily decrease number? Dual citizenship?  ;)

Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1462 on: July 24, 2015, 04:09:59 PM »
I know Jim.  I jokingly made a comment a week ago, after two century drops, that I'd wait for a few days before calling it a cliff.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1463 on: July 25, 2015, 08:18:14 AM »
IJIS:

7,117,077 km2(July 24, 2015)down 84,778 km2 from previous.
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1464 on: July 25, 2015, 04:38:39 PM »
Of course, I mention eight straight days of century breaks, and we don't get one. My bad.
« Last Edit: July 25, 2015, 06:47:42 PM by Tensor »
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1465 on: July 25, 2015, 04:57:54 PM »
Of course, I mention eight straight days of century breaks, and we don't get on. My bad.

Someone's got to do it.  ;D
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1466 on: July 26, 2015, 05:25:22 AM »
IJIS:

7,001,792 km2(July 25, 2015)down 115,285 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1467 on: July 27, 2015, 05:24:10 AM »
IJIS:

6,918,879 km2(July 26, 2015)down 82,913 km2 from previous and 4th lowest.
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dmarcus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1468 on: July 27, 2015, 07:52:35 AM »
If IJIS extent drops by an average of 82K per day for the next 8 days, it will pass 2011 and move to 3rd. Or 81K/day for the next 9 days.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1469 on: July 28, 2015, 05:44:39 AM »
IJIS:

6,843,550 km2(July 27, 2015)down 75,329 km2 from previous.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1470 on: July 28, 2015, 02:44:26 PM »
4th lowest while ending the season 2nd or 3rd lowest is still within the realm of possibility.

dmarcus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1471 on: July 28, 2015, 10:39:32 PM »
Mean date of minimum in 2007-14 was September 14th, 49 days from now. To finish 3rd requires an average drop of 53K/day; to finish 2nd requires 57K/day. To a first approximation, daily extent decreases shrink linearly from now until they reach zero in mid-September. So to average 53K/day would require current daily decreases around 106K, with each successive day about 2K less. A bit of a stretch? But certainly possible.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1472 on: July 29, 2015, 05:58:36 AM »
IJIS:

6,793,870 km2(July 28, 2015)down 49,680 km2 from previous and 5th lowest.
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Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1473 on: July 29, 2015, 01:11:04 PM »
Mean date of minimum in 2007-14 was September 14th, 49 days from now. To finish 3rd requires an average drop of 53K/day; to finish 2nd requires 57K/day. To a first approximation, daily extent decreases shrink linearly from now until they reach zero in mid-September. So to average 53K/day would require current daily decreases around 106K, with each successive day about 2K less. A bit of a stretch? But certainly possible.
The way I would do this is to look at each year's decrease from 28 July to the minimum, model a distribution, and figure out what the probabilities are that this year's future drop to the minimum will be large enough to put it in 1st place, 2nd place, etc.

Here's a first cut at that.  Column A is the predicted outcome for 2015, Column B is the probability:

1st place: < 1%
2nd: 18%
3rd: 16%
4th: 21%
5th: 11%
6th: 14%
7th: 4%
8th: 7%
9th or worse: 7%

Same thing, but with cumulative values:

1st place: <1%
2nd or better: 19%
3rd or better: 34%
4th or better: 56%
5th or better: 67%
6th or better: 81%
7th or better: 85%
8th or better: 93%
9th or worse: 7%

So there is an equal chance (1 in 3) that 2015 will end up in the top 3 or that it will not make it into the top 5.

The single most likely outcome is that 2015 will end up in 4th place ... with a daily minimum of 4441320 km2.

[Edited to add: this is all based on the statistics from 2007-2014, for consistency with dmarcus's comment]
« Last Edit: July 29, 2015, 01:18:22 PM by Ned W »

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1474 on: July 30, 2015, 07:33:29 AM »
IJIS:

6,730,052 km2(July 29, 2015)down 63,818 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1475 on: July 31, 2015, 07:04:04 AM »
IJIS:

6,641,466 km2(July 30, 2015)down 88,586 km2 from previous.
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dmarcus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1476 on: July 31, 2015, 08:33:45 PM »
And back to 4th lowest, after 2 days at 5th.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1477 on: August 01, 2015, 09:13:55 AM »
IJIS:

6,563,862 km2(July 31, 2015)down 77,604 km2 from previous.
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kingbum

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1478 on: August 01, 2015, 11:21:47 AM »
Seems to me a 70k daily drop on average through August is reasonable...any centuries will happen in the first two weeks....looking like 4.5m minimum to me...not surprising given El Niño and the hot tub that is the Pacific we are giving back some from 2013/14...AMO is switching to its cold phase though that will preserve some ice

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1479 on: August 02, 2015, 10:03:01 AM »
IJIS:

6,468,143 km2(August 1, 2015)down 95,719 km2 from previous.
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1480 on: August 02, 2015, 02:15:56 PM »
July's extent loss was 209% of June's, something pretty much unheard of in the satellite record. Average ratio over the past ten seasons is 142%, with a low of 93% (2010) and a high of 179% (2004). Not that that really means much; this year's July/June loss ratio is only so lopsided because June's loss was one of the very lowest on record. In fact, total extent loss last month was smaller than those recorded in 2007, 2009, 2012, and 2013. IOW, it was right around the median.

For the MJJA period-to-date, 2015 loss trails 2013, 2011, 2009, 2007, 2010, and 2012.

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1481 on: August 02, 2015, 02:20:08 PM »
I think 2015 acted strangely mainly because of its low max extent. At some point 2015 was more than 1 million km2 below 2012, so in order to revert to the mean there "had" to be some slow months.

greatdying2

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1482 on: August 02, 2015, 04:21:20 PM »
I've said it before and I guess I'll say it again: Hudson and Baffin melted late this year. It doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things (except perhaps regarding the CAA), but it makes various high-level statistics not comparable to other recent years...
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, a.k.a. the Great Dying, occurred about 250 million years ago and is the most severe known extinction event. Up to 96% of all marine species and 70% of terrestrial vertebrate species became extinct; it is also the only known mass extinction of insects.

Bob Wallace

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1483 on: August 02, 2015, 11:26:05 PM »
I've said it before and I guess I'll say it again: Hudson and Baffin melted late this year. It doesn't mean much in the grand scheme of things (except perhaps regarding the CAA), but it makes various high-level statistics not comparable to other recent years...

Agreed.  I'm feeling more comfortable using Wipnus's 'big bowl' graphs to track what is happening in the main arena. 

As of right now 2015 is neck and neck with 2012 in terms of extent.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-extent-multiprod.png

And in terms of area.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/basin-area-multiprod.png


The Hudson and Baffin are distorting right now.  The early melt in the Pacific suburbs distorted the early season melt.

kingbum

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1484 on: August 03, 2015, 02:54:08 AM »
The Hudson and Baffin are colder than normal that's obvious and I just think given normal temperatures they are going to refreeze earlier than normal preventing massive drops come late August. MYI in the Beaufort will prevent huge drop offs there and the Canadian Archipelago is relatively normal so unless things change and I will know more after the PIOMAS update I'm expecting a slow down really soon. I think century drops from this point are done for the season it looks like the cold is beginning to return.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1485 on: August 03, 2015, 05:45:00 AM »
IJIS:

6,398,006 km2(August 2, 2015)down 70,137 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1486 on: August 04, 2015, 05:42:38 AM »
IJIS:

6,280,798 km2(August 3, 2015)down 117,208 km2 from previous
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stackmaster

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1487 on: August 04, 2015, 05:57:29 AM »
More of those coming soon if my Chrystal ball is tuned up.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1488 on: August 05, 2015, 05:59:20 AM »
IJIS:

6,221,434 km2(August 4, 2015)down 59,364 km2 from previous.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1489 on: August 06, 2015, 05:49:50 AM »
IJIS:

6,198,968 km2(August 5, 2015)down 22,466 km2 from previous.
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Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1490 on: August 06, 2015, 02:48:36 PM »
OK.  Since my last update, 8 days ago, the odds of a 3rd, 4th, or 5th place finish have all increased slightly, while the odds of a higher or lower finish have decreased.

There's a 1-in-6 chance IJIS will finish better than 3rd, and a 1-in-4 chance it will do worse than 5th place.

Most likely outcome is that 2015 will end up in 4th place, behind 2012, 2007, and 2011.

Siffy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1491 on: August 06, 2015, 02:50:59 PM »
OK.  Since my last update, 8 days ago, the odds of a 3rd, 4th, or 5th place finish have all increased slightly, while the odds of a higher or lower finish have decreased.

There's a 1-in-6 chance IJIS will finish better than 3rd, and a 1-in-4 chance it will do worse than 5th place.

Most likely outcome is that 2015 will end up in 4th place, behind 2012, 2007, and 2011.



There is more than a million square km worth of low concentration ice around the beaufort sea and the ESS waiting to pop.

I'd surprised at anything other than a 2nd place finish.

plinius

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1492 on: August 06, 2015, 05:02:19 PM »
It is not clear if those fail or not. This is not the 2012 situation with  a dissolved region of thin ice, but a situation with highly dispersed, thick multiyear floes. Suppose we cannot pull more than simple gut feeling in the conjecture that those regions will melt out, as there are no experience values. It is also not clear (apart from that one buoy showing some accelerated melt), how much heat is in the water under that ice.
Situation on the European side is more clear - there you have a large warm water front pushing into the central arctic, similar to what happened in Chuckchi earlier this year.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1493 on: August 07, 2015, 06:11:25 AM »
IJIS:

6,152,802 km2(August 6, 2015)down 46,166 km2 from previous.

Corrected
« Last Edit: August 07, 2015, 04:49:45 PM by Espen »
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Lennart van der Linde

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1494 on: August 07, 2015, 07:44:03 AM »
down 68,632 km2 from previous.

That should be "down 46k from previous", it seems?

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1495 on: August 07, 2015, 07:55:23 AM »
Yes, correct. It's nice to see that Espen is human though. ;)

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1496 on: August 07, 2015, 04:07:21 PM »
Perhaps he's not having an "ice" day! ;)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1497 on: August 07, 2015, 07:57:12 PM »
I am having a "ice" day, but the way way I read the Bremen map, we are in for a some interesting weeks ;).

http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2/arctic_AMSR2_nic.png
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slow wing

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1498 on: August 08, 2015, 12:55:02 AM »
Espen, the correct English is:
"an ice"
and also:
"a nice".

So you can have a nice day and can also have an ice day.

https://www.englishclub.com/pronunciation/a-an.htm

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1499 on: August 08, 2015, 01:28:56 AM »
It is important to use proper english grammar if you want to have an "ice" day!  8)

Espen: The Uni Bremen map shows the arctic ice being decimated, yet the the melt seems to have slowed down.

Bud