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JKDMaineUSA

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1500 on: August 08, 2015, 04:28:58 AM »
I believe you missed Espen's "play on words", ice being substituted for nice. Therefore, his grammar usage is allowed.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1501 on: August 08, 2015, 09:20:24 AM »
IJIS:

6,085,662 km2(August 7, 2015)down 67,140 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

colding

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1502 on: August 08, 2015, 10:58:51 AM »
I believe you missed Espen's "play on words", ice being substituted for nice. Therefore, his grammar usage is allowed.

That's exactly the point. Moving the 'n' back and forth: "an ice" => "a nice". It isn't as good a word play without the 'n' and the correct usage of 'an'.

Anne

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1503 on: August 08, 2015, 11:56:16 AM »
 Is your name 'colding', with an S?

colding

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1504 on: August 08, 2015, 01:49:10 PM »
Is your name 'colding', with an S?

Nope, no 'S'. 'Colding' is my surname.

notjonathon

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1505 on: August 08, 2015, 05:01:45 PM »
Mr. (s)colding--

I don't think you got Anne's point.

We're not the grammar police.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1506 on: August 08, 2015, 05:30:57 PM »
And since "have a ice day" is a nonsense sentence, there is no rule!! ;)
Have a ice day!

AySz88

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1507 on: August 08, 2015, 08:38:04 PM »
Though I also think "...an ice..." is the better pun, it seems like Espen by now has already decided which version he wants to use. (Is the provocation of this whole conversation part of the idea of it?) ;)

We're not the grammar police.

Didn't you hear? You get points!

(But to be serious: On certain commenting systems, you are literally rewarded points ("upvotes" or "likes") for pedantic oneupmanship and pointing out such things. So perhaps a culture clash shouldn't really be put down quite that harshly.)

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1508 on: August 08, 2015, 09:24:41 PM »
Okay, enough boring stuff, back to IJIS.

Have a ice day!  ;D
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1509 on: August 08, 2015, 09:54:27 PM »
Though I also think "...an ice..." is the better pun, it seems like Espen by now has already decided which version he wants to use. (Is the provocation of this whole conversation part of the idea of it?) ;)

We're not the grammar police.

Didn't you hear? You get points!

(But to be serious: On certain commenting systems, you are literally rewarded points ("upvotes" or "likes") for pedantic oneupmanship and pointing out such things. So perhaps a culture clash shouldn't really be put down quite that harshly.)

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(Couldn't resist).
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1510 on: August 09, 2015, 09:13:03 AM »
Today down 90k. First day below 6M

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1511 on: August 09, 2015, 10:06:47 AM »
IJIS:

5,996,398 km2(August 8, 2015)down 89,264 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1512 on: August 10, 2015, 05:23:11 AM »
IJIS:

 5,903,228 km2(August 9, 2015)down 93,170 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1513 on: August 11, 2015, 05:42:59 AM »
IJIS:

5,804,214 km2(August 10, 2015)down 99,014 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1514 on: August 11, 2015, 06:18:13 AM »
IJIS:

5,804,214 km2(August 10, 2015)down 99,014 km2 from previous.
Dropping like a stone... 350,000KM2 in 4 days...
This space for Rent.

slow wing

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1515 on: August 11, 2015, 06:19:06 AM »
What happens if the Beaufort Arm detaches completely? Is there a discontinuous plunge in extent or can the algorithm handle that change in the ice pack topology?

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1516 on: August 11, 2015, 06:51:08 AM »
What happens if the Beaufort Arm detaches completely? Is there a discontinuous plunge in extent or can the algorithm handle that change in the ice pack topology?

All the algorithms afaik count grid boxes/pixels, and do not look for a contiguous ice pack, so it should have no discontinuous effect.

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1517 on: August 11, 2015, 08:39:28 AM »
IJIS:

5,804,214 km2(August 10, 2015)down 99,014 km2 from previous.
Dropping like a stone... 350,000KM2 in 4 days...

The significant slowdown has begun.

slow wing

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1518 on: August 11, 2015, 10:03:39 AM »
Thanks Oren.

  I'm surprised the extent remains so high. Look at the U. Bremen concentration map. The area inside the '80 degrees North circle' is only 3.9 million square km and that includes some land mass (Greenland and Ellesmere Island, if I am remembering the second name correctly) as well as parts on the Atlantic side without ice.

  So let's play the mind game for a moment of excluding all the ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic Basin South of 80 degrees N. To my eye, the sea ice cover apart from that is probably less than the 80 degree circle area.

  So I presume IJIS must be counting a lot of extent on the Pacific side and South of 80 degrees N.
What the U. Bremen map shows as the hole is seen in the EOSDIS satellite pictures to actually be a mush from broken up floes, and the same is true for some of the other regions showing as water in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

  With continuing winds forecast in that region, I  would expect that part of the extent to continue to fall away quickly.

   So based on the above I predict the IJIS extent to continue to drop fast to somewhere around 4 million square km, as happened in 2012, and in the process presumably blowing down to second place on the IJIS extent graph, below the 2007 and 2011 lines.













OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1519 on: August 11, 2015, 02:38:29 PM »
                                            ------<SNIP>--------

   So based on the above I predict the IJIS extent to continue to drop fast to somewhere around 4 million square km, as happened in 2012, and in the process presumably blowing down to second place on the IJIS extent graph, below the 2007 and 2011 lines.

                                              ------<SNIP>--------
slow wing,

I agree that your prediction may be correct.  If we have many more near-century drops within  the next 5-10 days, I can easily see a high probability of going below 2011 and reasonable chance of going below 2007.  For all practical purposes 2012 will retain the record low for SIE.  A good science fiction writer would have trouble creating a scenario that would allow 2015 to set a new record low.
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Tensor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1520 on: August 11, 2015, 05:02:50 PM »
...Snip

...For all practical purposes 2012 will retain the record low for SIE.  A good science fiction writer would have trouble creating a scenario that would allow 2015 to set a new record low.

I happen to agree with you on the record low, but I may give writing that scenario a try, as I'm a bad science fiction writer.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1521 on: August 12, 2015, 05:51:01 AM »
IJIS:

August 11 2015 delayed.
Have a ice day!

Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1522 on: August 12, 2015, 07:28:51 AM »
IJIS: 5,722,632 km2 (August 11). Down 81,582 km2 since previous.

//LMV


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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1523 on: August 12, 2015, 11:09:53 AM »
Here's an update of my despaghettified graph - more like a double bass drawn by Salvador Dali.

For the 2010s average, I've included 2010,2011,2012,2013 & 2014. Does anyone know if that's the same convention that JAXA use, given that people often disagree about the year in which a decade starts?

Anyway, on this basis the average daily drop in week 1 of August this year (68,314), was very similar to the  August week 1 average daily drop in 2010-2014 (69,355). The August week 2 average daily drop in the 2010-2014 is 77,080.
 
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1524 on: August 12, 2015, 11:42:25 AM »
IJIS:

5,722,632 km2(August 11, 2015)down 81,582 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1525 on: August 12, 2015, 07:15:21 PM »
...Snip

...For all practical purposes 2012 will retain the record low for SIE.  A good science fiction writer would have trouble creating a scenario that would allow 2015 to set a new record low.

I happen to agree with you on the record low, but I may give writing that scenario a try, as I'm a bad science fiction writer.

To give everyone an idea how improbable, akin to science fiction scenarios, it is for 2015 to end up below 2012, this is what it would take:

1. If, and it is a big IF, in the 19 days left in August, 2012 would lose 100K/day.  That then must be followed by an additional 650K of losses in September.  This would result in the following:

2012   3,177,455
2015   3,172,632


Ain't going to happen folks!!


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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1526 on: August 12, 2015, 09:55:43 PM »
During the years 2002-2014 there have been a rather high similarity in the SIE loss according to IJIS data from August 11 to SIE minimum from 2007-2014:

2002: down 1,1 Mn km2
2003: down 0,9 Mn km2
2004: down 1,25 Mn km2
2005: down 1,1 Mn km2
2006: down 0,8 Mn km2
2007: down 1,25 Mn km2
2008: down 1,5 Mn km2
2009: down 1,2 Mn km2
2010: down 1,4 Mn km2
2011: down 1,4 Mn km2
2012: down 1,7 Mn km2
2013: down 1,2 Mn km2
2014: down 1,2 Mn km2


If we are limiting ourselves to the years 2007-2014 we should most likely see an additional 1,2 Mn km2 in sea ice extent numbers. Maybe 1,4-1,5 Mn km2 if weather conditions are favorable. That said, IJIS SIE number for August 11 was 5,722,632 km2. Thus I think it's fair to say that the SIE minimum for 2015 will end up somewhere around 4,2-4,5 Mn km2. This would equal to a third, fourth or fifth place. With this mathematics we realize that it would require a record melt to beat 2007 at second place. Even 2011 at third place could be tricky as it would require a loss of 1,5 Mn km2.

2012? Well, a loss of 2,6 Mn km2 is more or less just utopia. But hey, there might be a "Big MAC" coming in the end of ECMWF 12z forecast run for today at August 12.... What kind of damage would such one do to the ice?

Sincerely, LMV

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1527 on: August 13, 2015, 06:19:49 AM »
IJIS:

5,662,981 km2(August 12, 2015)down 59,651 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1528 on: August 13, 2015, 01:48:30 PM »
Using the same process as I've posted previously in this thread...

Expected IJIS Sept. daily minimum = 4.36 x 10^6 km2
95% CI for daily minimum: 4.0 to 4.7

Probability of 1st place ~ 0%
2nd or better 6%
3rd or better 33%
4th or better 78%
5th or better 92%
Worse than 5th place < 1%

By far the most likely outcome is that 2015 will end up behind 2012, 2007, and 2011, but ahead of all other years.   This is basically the same as 2 weeks ago, but with higher certainty.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1529 on: August 13, 2015, 06:57:16 PM »
Using the same process as I've posted previously in this thread...

Expected IJIS Sept. daily minimum = 4.36 x 10^6 km2
95% CI for daily minimum: 4.0 to 4.7

Probability of 1st place ~ 0%
2nd or better 6%
3rd or better 33%
4th or better 78%
5th or better 92%
Worse than 5th place < 1%

By far the most likely outcome is that 2015 will end up behind 2012, 2007, and 2011, but ahead of all other years.   This is basically the same as 2 weeks ago, but with higher certainty.

If IJIS/NIPR SIA extent were to follow the behavioral average of the previous ten seasons (2005 - 2014), the minimum would end up at 4.44 x 10^6 km2, and it would occur on 15 September. (Were 2015 to mimic 2012's behavior from here on, the minimum would be 4.05M, while a copy of 2006's behavior would leave 2015 at 4.92M.) So, yes, 4.36M km2 sounds like a good number. Just 1.3 million km2 to go...

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1530 on: August 14, 2015, 05:53:24 AM »
IJIS:

5,618,256 km2(August 13, 2015)down 44,725 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1531 on: August 14, 2015, 07:58:23 AM »
IJIS:

5,618,256 km2(August 13, 2015)down 44,725 km2 from previous.



this can't be correct. watch the ice close on world view. a lot of ice is melting out in extremely high tempo and  fabsolutely in a big area of beaufort sea.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1532 on: August 14, 2015, 08:20:15 AM »
IJIS:

5,618,256 km2(August 13, 2015)down 44,725 km2 from previous.

this can't be correct. watch the ice close on world view. a lot of ice is melting out in extremely high tempo and  fabsolutely in a big area of beaufort sea.

Unless you have some actual numbers to go with those pictures on world view, yes it is correct. 
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Sleepy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1533 on: August 14, 2015, 08:34:02 AM »
Looking through the eyes of GCOM-W1 shows no huge difference between Aug12 to Aug13.
Click to animate.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1534 on: August 14, 2015, 12:45:41 PM »
. . . a lot of ice is melting out in extremely high tempo and fabsolutely in a big area of beaufort sea.

is "fabsolutely" a new word (like "fantabulous"), a Freudian slip, or just a typo?

plg

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1535 on: August 14, 2015, 03:56:40 PM »
. . . a lot of ice is melting out in extremely high tempo and fabsolutely in a big area of beaufort sea.

is "fabsolutely" a new word (like "fantabulous"), a Freudian slip, or just a typo?

Probably a Freudian typo,
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1536 on: August 15, 2015, 08:24:24 AM »
IJIS:

5,576,982 km2August 14, 2015)down 41,274 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1537 on: August 16, 2015, 08:34:32 AM »
IJIS:

5,522,805 km2(August 15, 2015)down 54,177 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1538 on: August 17, 2015, 05:44:40 AM »
IJIS:

5,470,644 km2(August 16, 2015)down 52,161 km2 from previous.

Have a ice day!

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1539 on: August 18, 2015, 05:41:41 AM »
IJIS:

5,419,847 km2(August 17, 2015)down 50,797 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1540 on: August 19, 2015, 05:42:19 AM »
IJIS:

5,328,130 km2(August 18, 2015)down 91,717 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1541 on: August 20, 2015, 05:49:45 AM »
IJIS:

5,248,075 km2(August 19, 2015)down 80,055 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1542 on: August 21, 2015, 05:56:55 AM »
IJIS:

5,199,264 km2(August 20, 2015)down 48,811 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1543 on: August 21, 2015, 09:15:39 PM »
Another week, and the projected Sept. daily minimum is almost unchanged, at 4.38 million km2.  The 95% confidence interval continues to narrow, though; it's now 4.1 to 4.6.

Chance of 1st or 2nd place finish: < 1%
3rd place (ahead of 2011): 20%
4th place (behind 2011, ahead of 2008): 62%
5th place (behind 2008): 14%
6th or worse place: < 4%

So IJIS continues on track for a 4th place finish.  Not a lot of exciting action here, the projection remains basically the same every week.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1544 on: August 21, 2015, 09:24:48 PM »
Another week, and the projected Sept. daily minimum is almost unchanged, at 4.38 million km2.  The 95% confidence interval continues to narrow, though; it's now 4.1 to 4.6.

Chance of 1st or 2nd place finish: < 1%
3rd place (ahead of 2011): 20%
4th place (behind 2011, ahead of 2008): 62%
5th place (behind 2008): 14%
6th or worse place: < 4%

So IJIS continues on track for a 4th place finish.  Not a lot of exciting action here, the projection remains basically the same every week.

But something may surprise you?
Have a ice day!

Ned W

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1545 on: August 21, 2015, 09:33:28 PM »
I would have been surprised if the result was surprising...

dmarcus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1546 on: August 22, 2015, 07:01:40 AM »
Another week, and the projected Sept. daily minimum is almost unchanged, at 4.38 million km2.  The 95% confidence interval continues to narrow, though; it's now 4.1 to 4.6.

Chance of 1st or 2nd place finish: < 1%
3rd place (ahead of 2011): 20%
4th place (behind 2011, ahead of 2008): 62%
5th place (behind 2008): 14%
6th or worse place: < 4%

So IJIS continues on track for a 4th place finish.  Not a lot of exciting action here, the projection remains basically the same every week.

Well, the chance of a 10th or worse place is now zero. Today's IJIS extent is below every year earlier than 2007, so even if no more melt were to occur, 2015 would finish 9th. And while 2015 extent is currently higher than every year from 2007-14, it will move below 2009 into 8th place in a couple of days at the current melt rate.

It's now guaranteed that the 9 lowest extent years on record will be the most recent 9 years, 2007-15.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1547 on: August 22, 2015, 09:13:58 AM »
IJIS:

5,137,974 km2(August 21, 2015)down 61,290 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1548 on: August 22, 2015, 11:02:29 AM »
That's 2015 below every pre-2007 minimum and just 84k off the 2009 minimum
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1549 on: August 22, 2015, 01:41:09 PM »
Interesting stat of the day: extent loss for the month-to-date (1.43M km2) has already exceeded that lost during the entire month of June (1.40M). Of course, that has less to do with this month's losses being amazing--they're not so far above the ten-year average of 1.35M--and much more to do with June's tepid loss, which was far below the 10-year average of 2.05M.