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kingbum

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1550 on: August 23, 2015, 02:25:23 AM »
My thought of 4.75-5.0 was predicated on a slightly early refreeze....Its probably ending in the 4.5-4.75 range though. Even so in April I would of thought it would be lower than that given the lowest maximum of all time. Given that parameter this feels pedestrian at best if you are rooting for choas.  I don't reasonably expect the refreeze to be as bad as last year for extent it was after all the worst all time and the downward trend in ice is linear not exponential. Given this unlike most on here I'm expecting a 2016 rebound to above pre-2007 levels. Things can't stay on an all time catastrophic pace or their wouldn't be any such things as averages. This is a slow kill of the ice plenty of variability

ktonine

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1551 on: August 23, 2015, 03:17:04 AM »
... I'm expecting a 2016 rebound to above pre-2007 levels. Things can't stay on an all time catastrophic pace or their wouldn't be any such things as averages.

kingbum - a rebound to pre-2007 levels is unlikely to be seen by anyone alive today.  The net sum of ice creation/melt is determined by the energy budget plus/minus weather variability. The net energy is increasing.  I know of no scenario where it suddenly starts decreasing in the immediate future (this century). 

I can remember not just pre-2007, but pre-1970, when the SS Manhattan made her round-trip voyage through the northwest passage. She routinely broke ice up to 14 feet thick for extended periods and smashed ice ridges up to 40 feet.  Even at that she still got stuck in McClure Strait - had to back out with the assistance of an icebreaker and venture round the other side of Banks Island.

That arctic of the 1970s is gone. No regression to the mean or law of averages is ever going to bring it back.   I very much suspect the arctic of pre-2007 is also gone.  The law of averages works when the system is basically the same.  It doesn't apply with ever-increasing forcings and net-feedbacks all moving in the same direction.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1552 on: August 23, 2015, 08:19:53 AM »
IJIS:

5,066,776 km2(August 22, 2015)down 71,198 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1553 on: August 23, 2015, 09:49:52 AM »
IJIS:

5,066,776 km2(August 22, 2015)down 71,198 km2 from previous.
The IJIS extent has been in continuous decline since the beginning of August with an average loss of 67K per day, and more than 64 K per day in the last week.  NSIDC has been up and down like a YoYo with changes of -200K to  + 50K.  however after three weeks the difference is less than 50K between the two.

With  no  current sign of a slow up I expect we will continue to  see strong  melting over the next few weeks. Third lowest now seems the most likely  outcome with second a distinct possibility. 
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1554 on: August 23, 2015, 07:50:16 PM »
IJIS:

5,066,776 km2(August 22, 2015)down 71,198 km2 from previous.
The IJIS extent has been in continuous decline since the beginning of August with an average loss of 67K per day, and more than 64 K per day in the last week.  NSIDC has been up and down like a YoYo with changes of -200K to  + 50K.  however after three weeks the difference is less than 50K between the two.

With  no  current sign of a slow up I expect we will continue to  see strong  melting over the next few weeks. Third lowest now seems the most likely  outcome with second a distinct possibility.

I personally doubt 2007 can be passed, since it had a low and late minimum and the distance to it is quite large. On the other hand, this year has a very similar slope to 2011, with the bonus that 2011 turned up early. If 2015 just keeps up the same slope but goes on a few more days, it could achieve 3rd.

icefisher

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1555 on: August 24, 2015, 03:19:40 AM »
ktonine:  Well said. I also remember the SS Manhattan and the ice conditions it faced.  Now just another casualty of GW.  I used to imagine what that must have sounded like as the ice shattered under the weight of the over built prow.  That prow was great as long as the Manhattan moved forward but the counter weight in the stern meant backing up was nigh on impossible.  Hence the need for someone to nibble away the ice behind them.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1556 on: August 24, 2015, 05:23:49 AM »
IJIS:

4,992,583 km2(August 23, 2015)down 74,193 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1557 on: August 24, 2015, 06:22:01 AM »
IJIS:

4,992,583 km2(August 23, 2015)down 74,193 km2 from previous.

... and the Grind, grind, GRIND of ice continues remorselessly...
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1558 on: August 25, 2015, 05:22:15 AM »
IJIS:

4,921,900 km2(August 24, 2015)down 70,683 km2 from previous.
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1559 on: August 26, 2015, 05:41:42 AM »
IJIS:

4,850,963 km2(August 25, 2015)down 70,937 km2 from previous-
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Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1560 on: August 26, 2015, 04:35:16 PM »
A remarkably stable decrease. The trend line on my IJIS SIE graph is almost strait, and it has now dipped below 2014's daily minimum.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1561 on: August 26, 2015, 07:19:55 PM »
A remarkably stable decrease. The trend line on my IJIS SIE graph is almost strait, and it has now dipped below 2014's daily minimum.

A 2nd lowest for the year is reachable.
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Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1562 on: August 26, 2015, 07:42:01 PM »
Someone else on the sight said it before....that we are now down to "that time" in this 35 year drop in Arctic ice, where ANYTHING can happen in short order.  ANYTHING.

Fascinating stuff....

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OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1563 on: August 26, 2015, 11:01:29 PM »
A remarkably stable decrease. The trend line on my IJIS SIE graph is almost strait, and it has now dipped below 2014's daily minimum.

A 2nd lowest for the year is reachable.

Espen,

I agree with you that 2nd place is a possibility, particularly if the losses continue at their current pace for the next week.  Currently 2015 needs to lose 581,764 Km2 to go below 2011 and 785,204 Km2 to go below 2007.

The least amount of SIE loss in September was149,981 Km2, in 2004, and the greatest amount was 501,822 Km2, in 2010. The average loss for years 2003-2014 was just over 290K Km2.




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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1564 on: August 27, 2015, 06:02:39 AM »
IJIS:

4,713,460 km2(August 26, 2015)down 137,503 km2 from previous.

And 3rd lowest measured for the date.
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1565 on: August 27, 2015, 06:42:04 AM »
Almost certain that 2015 will now be at least 3rd place at the end of this year.  With that massive drop, 2007 is seriously threatened.
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1566 on: August 27, 2015, 06:51:13 AM »
Almost certain that 2015 will now be at least 3rd place at the end of this year.  With that massive drop, 2007 is seriously threatened.
Guess we just found out what effect the winds are going to have.
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1567 on: August 27, 2015, 07:48:18 AM »
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1568 on: August 27, 2015, 08:18:00 AM »
137K drop? Wow.
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DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1569 on: August 27, 2015, 10:33:25 AM »
137K drop? Wow.
And here I  was thinking IJIS had settled in to a boring old 70K drop per day for the month. Suddenly we get  the biggest drop since July 20th when the Hudson and Baffin Bay were plummeting.

Its wild ride up there in the Arctic this year!!
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Jim Hunt

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1570 on: August 27, 2015, 12:11:21 PM »
137K drop? Wow.

I'm sure somebody somewhere mentioned "flash melting"?
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Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1571 on: August 27, 2015, 12:27:31 PM »
Jim Hunt: Yup, Neven did mention flash melting. See post #3712 in "2015 melting season": http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1149.msg62005.html#msg62005

//LMV

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1572 on: August 27, 2015, 12:31:28 PM »
I didn't expect it so soon or so big. In fact, I thought extent could stall for a bit because of added dispersal.
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1573 on: August 27, 2015, 01:27:11 PM »
I didn't expect it so soon or so big. In fact, I thought extent could stall for a bit because of added dispersal.

Me too, but the detached ice got that huge hit. Laptev bite keeps increasing too.

Also there might be some “peek a boo“ due to clouds.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1574 on: August 27, 2015, 02:02:43 PM »
137K drop? Wow.

Yep. Also:

--Only the second century drop to have been recorded after August 15 since at least 2003;
--The fifth largest one-day drop this year, and the only one of its size to occur outside of July;
--SIE is now in 3rd place for the first time since June 16th;
--August SIE loss is now at 133% of the total loss for the month of June. 10-year average for this date: 78%.

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1575 on: August 27, 2015, 02:06:34 PM »
Quote
--August SIE loss is now at 133% of the total loss for the month of June. 10-year average for this date: 78%.

The above stat posted by Jim really caught my eye.  And I think you will see more of this in the next few years.  As the ice is "softened up" earlier....August is able to "clean it up" because it is so thin and vulnerable.

Three more weeks to go (or so).....
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1576 on: August 28, 2015, 06:16:26 AM »
IJIS:

4,584,969 km2(August 27, 2015)128,491 km2 from previous.
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greatdying2

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1577 on: August 28, 2015, 06:24:17 AM »
Whoa! Almost passed 2007.
266 thousand km2 in 2 days, nearly double the previous already high rate of ~70/day.
  :)
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slow wing

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1578 on: August 28, 2015, 06:26:33 AM »
137K drop? Wow.

Yep. Also:

--Only the second century drop to have been recorded after August 15 since at least 2003;
...
BOOM! Two in a row now. And basically second equal with 2007, behind only 2012.


jplotinus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1579 on: August 28, 2015, 06:37:12 AM »
Barrow still getting hammered.

wanderer

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1580 on: August 28, 2015, 07:31:08 AM »
Who said the melt season was over?  ;D

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1581 on: August 28, 2015, 07:36:17 AM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy stuff:

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oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1582 on: August 28, 2015, 08:12:42 AM »
Wow. I totally did not see this coming. My predictions going to the dust.

jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1583 on: August 28, 2015, 08:32:13 AM »
Wow. I totally did not see this coming. My predictions going to the dust.
Explicitly demonstrated... the incredible weakness of the Arctic ice, and how subject it is to the whims of the weather.
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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1584 on: August 28, 2015, 08:34:33 AM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy stuff:


We still have two days of storm left in the Beaufort, with the new one spooling up at Svalbard.

Interesting times....
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1585 on: August 28, 2015, 10:26:55 AM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy stuff:



Yes it may end abruptly (the melting season) or stall badly; more physical point of view than compactness: if that storm in six days gets located in the center of the Arctic, compactness may moderate, but the season ends. But other updates set it in Kara!!! Which would lead to something like a dipole. Others, near Fram. Who knows.

I think this was really exciting August month about Arctic dynamics! I heard at the beginning that it was going to be BORING.



Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1586 on: August 28, 2015, 03:01:55 PM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy stuff:



That is amazing, indeed. Consider this: SIE has seen largest two-day drop ever to occur later than August 10; it's now just a few tens of thousands of square miles out of 2nd place. Meanwhile, SIA is struggling, falling back into 6th place for the first time since the beginning of June. In fact, this telling stat: SIE has dropped three times more in the past two days (266k) than SIA has in the past two weeks (83k).

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1587 on: August 28, 2015, 05:53:40 PM »
Updated Near-Term ADS-NIPR SIE Loss Projections

Cross-posted from the 2015 Area and Extent thread.

The simplistic model I developed for projecting near-term SIE losses assumes that the melt season would end on the 15th of September. That was not a random choice. In the past 12 years the earliest minimum was on the 9th and the latest was on the 21st, while six years ended before the 15th, 5 years ended after the 15th and one lone year ended on the 15th. I have no way of knowing whether 2015 will end before or after the 15th. Just because dramatic losses are occurring this week and there are elevated SSTs on the fringes of the ice pack is no guarantee that melting will continue later than normal. The other reason for ending on the 15th is that it is almost impossible to determine average daily losses during a time when SIE values may be fluctuating up or down on a daily basis.


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crandles

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1588 on: August 28, 2015, 06:11:41 PM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy stuff:



Does this change prognosis for early or late minimums? I would suggest that it is possible that the storm and any upwelling warm water it brings will just about finish off the dispersed ice in the arm over the next few days and then there is very little dispersed ice left which would set the stage for early area and extent minimums. Maybe there are other views?

OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1589 on: August 28, 2015, 06:19:59 PM »

Does this change prognosis for early or late minimums? I would suggest that it is possible that the storm and any upwelling warm water it brings will just about finish off the dispersed ice in the arm over the next few days and then there is very little dispersed ice left which would set the stage for early area and extent minimums. Maybe there are other views?

Good Question. I follow it with another question; will the SST anomalies on the fringes of the ice pack be high enough to continue nibbling at the edges?

Other than that the only thing I could see would be another one or two cyclones.
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LRC1962

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1590 on: August 28, 2015, 07:36:20 PM »
I follow it with another question; will the SST anomalies on the fringes of the ice pack be high enough to continue nibbling at the edges?

Other than that the only thing I could see would be another one or two cyclones.
Most SSTs in the Arctic reflect the melt water from the melted ice. The warm water is the warmer saltier water flowing in from the Atlantic is under that. Cyclones pull the warmer water nearer the surface and at the same time push it under the ice causing under melt. The waves also become important because they can also get involved in breaking up the ice from underneath.
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seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1591 on: August 28, 2015, 08:23:51 PM »
If you see the updated compactness plots in Neven's page,

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

the CAPIE has levelled due to the storm.
Forget it, I saw the wrong plot.

Also, note that the high CAB compactness distorts the whole thing.
If no central perturbation disperses the pack, I'd say there is plenty of room for final compactness of the main pack and melting of the dispersed ice, and CAA. IJIS, neck and neck with 2007 and 2011.



oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1592 on: August 28, 2015, 09:03:53 PM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy stuff:



Does this change prognosis for early or late minimums? I would suggest that it is possible that the storm and any upwelling warm water it brings will just about finish off the dispersed ice in the arm over the next few days and then there is very little dispersed ice left which would set the stage for early area and extent minimums. Maybe there are other views?

Intuitively I feel the same, as the "low hanging fruit" got picked up, this should lower the potential for further melt. Though my intuition is nearly worthless.

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1593 on: August 28, 2015, 09:37:06 PM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy stuff:

Does this change prognosis for early or late minimums? I would suggest that it is possible that the storm and any upwelling warm water it brings will just about finish off the dispersed ice in the arm over the next few days and then there is very little dispersed ice left which would set the stage for early area and extent minimums. Maybe there are other views?

Intuitively I feel the same, as the "low hanging fruit" got picked up, this should lower the potential for further melt. Though my intuition is nearly worthless.
My guess is the opposite. If the storm churned up heat from depths, there is plenty of marginal ice left to melt on the fringes of Beaufort. Not to mention the Laptev bite and the CAA... So I think the extent minimum will be later than usual.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1594 on: August 28, 2015, 10:09:41 PM »
ASI area stalled because of surface freezing while edge (and bottom) melting accelerate because of the storm (and warm sea temperatures).  I get the impression that bottom melt is becoming a 'bigger deal' as global warming progresses.  I think this reasoning suggests a later end to the 'melt' season.
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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1595 on: August 28, 2015, 10:17:25 PM »
I get the impression that bottom melt is becoming a 'bigger deal' as global warming progresses.  I think this reasoning suggests a later end to the 'melt' season.

I fully agree, and the rotten ice porridge that should be multi year ice north of CAA and Greenland, is almost collapsing this season.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2015, 10:22:43 PM by Espen »
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Juan C. García

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1596 on: August 28, 2015, 10:23:36 PM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy stuff:



From my point of view, this is distortion that could be related to satellite resolution and other ways to measure ice on NSIDC. With Wipneus comments, I understand that CT SIA is based on NSIDC figures. NSIDC SIE is 5.1 million km2 today (August 27) while IJIS/JAXA SIE is around 4.6 million km2. So, could we have the same distortion in NSIDC SIA, like we have it in SIE?
« Last Edit: August 28, 2015, 10:32:15 PM by Juan C. García »
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

seaicesailor

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1597 on: August 28, 2015, 11:44:42 PM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy

From my point of view, this is distortion that could be related to satellite resolution and other ways to measure ice on NSIDC. With Wipneus comments, I understand that CT SIA is based on NSIDC figures. NSIDC SIE is 5.1 million km2 today (August 27) while IJIS/JAXA SIE is around 4.6 million km2. So, could we have the same distortion in NSIDC SIA, like we have it in SIE?

A small correction, Juan C, SIE of NSIDC stands at about 4.847 Millions of kilometers sq. (Aug 27)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1598 on: August 28, 2015, 11:47:14 PM »
Barrow, Alaska is having a storm, the pay loaders are out repairing the dikes:

No sea level rise here to report about!

Please click to enlarge!
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #1599 on: August 28, 2015, 11:59:15 PM »
This is amazing. I wonder when CT SIA is going to follow, because the combination of CT SIA stalling and IJIS/JAXA SIE dropping like a rock covered with armed concrete, is causing CAPIE to do crazy stuff:

From my point of view, this is distortion that could be related to satellite resolution and other ways to measure ice on NSIDC. With Wipneus comments, I understand that CT SIA is based on NSIDC figures. NSIDC SIE is 5.1 million km2 today (August 27) while IJIS/JAXA SIE is around 4.6 million km2. So, could we have the same distortion in NSIDC SIA, like we have it in SIE?

The comparative figure for NSIDC SIA / SIE jumped from 61.32% on August 18th to 70.58% on August 24th matching the jump on the CAPIE graph above. 

IJIS and NSIDC SIE have been dropping at  almost  exactly the same rate over August although the daily  NSIDC figures vary much  more.  Todays 177K drop on NSIDC is only the third biggest fall this month whereas the IJIS 137K fall yesterday was the biggest since July. 

IJIS has fallen 1,883K  km^2 since Aug 1st while NSIDC has dropped 1,865 K km^ 2  indicating that  even with daily  differences the decline has been very similar.

The differences between NSIDC and IJIS is primarily caused by IJIS using a smaller area to  determine the 15% threshold. If I  remember correctly NSIDC uses a 25 * 25 Km area whereas IJIS uses a 10 * 10 km area. This generally causes IJIS to  be lower than NSIDC.
« Last Edit: August 29, 2015, 12:07:09 AM by DavidR »
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore