IJIS

[plinius]

Not a sign of melt in the Ochotsk:

Also note that through the entire section temperatures will remain in deep freeze for the next days. GFS does not see any melt temperatures and more importantly dew points remain below < -10C across the entire Ochotsk. Are you sure you are not mixing Chinese sea and Ochotsk?

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,586,985 km²（February 21, 2016）lowest value measured for the date.

[magnamentis]

Not a sign of melt in the Ochotsk:

Also note that through the entire section temperatures will remain in deep freeze for the next days. GFS does not see any melt temperatures and more importantly dew points remain below < -10C across the entire Ochotsk. Are you sure you are not mixing Chinese sea and Ochotsk?

a) i mentioned explicitly the south and this image shows entire section's area

b) there was a dip when i wrote and now there is tick up a bit later but again it's not for the south which i mentioned there are of over thousand kilometers from the far south to the most northern part which is well worth to distinguish between north and south, for the mid part i mentioned a 10-15 days period, so we are definitely not talking about the same thing here which will lead nowhere. let's just see but if you really want to go there, have a look in 2 weeks and check. only that if the south is starts melting the entire area will not significantly grow ( and beside the above mentioned details like "southern part" "10-15 days" i can add that the word "significant" which i as well used is not denying slight growth or up and downs, just not significant growth in the meaning that ochotsk will contribute significantly to a sudden significant overall growth.

this all has to be seen in the context that you were saying that growth in bering and ochotsk will contribute
a significant part to get over 13M. while i don't deny that reaching over 13M is in the reach, the missing 0.5M will not grow in the sea of ochotsk and bering but on the atlantic side if at all. but let's see, its' guesswork anyway
which makes it so interesting after all, to learn each year something new about how things CAN work out differently than before :-) game on

[plinius]

well, fact is that the Ochotsk is set up for near-record cold in the next week. And there is also a lot of area to freeze over in the northern parts. Anyway, if GFS is correct, things will turn in the Spitzbergen region in about +120hours, with drift changing direction in addition to an extreme cold spell. Signs are on for a lot of growth in area+extent (and a lot of loss of volume through the Fram).

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,593,241 km²（February 22, 2016）lowest value measured for the date.

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,630,119 km²（February 23, 2016）lowest value measured for the date.

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,780,109 km²（February 24, 2016）lowest value measured for the date.

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS:

13,780,109 km²（February 24, 2016）lowest value measured for the date.

The 150k km2 seen in IJIS extent this morning is the largest single-day increase seen in February in the last 14 years, and it's the first since last November. However--and this almost goes without saying--such late-freezing, low-latitude ice is seldom long for this world. After all, March 2012 saw a single-day increase of 186k, the largest ever measured in any month except October. And we all know how 2012 ended up...

[magnamentis]

IJIS:

13,780,109 km²（February 24, 2016）lowest value measured for the date.

The 150k km2 seen in IJIS extent this morning is the largest single-day increase seen in February in the last 14 years, and it's the first since last November. However--and this almost goes without saying--such late-freezing, low-latitude ice is seldom long for this world. After all, March 2012 saw a single-day increase of 186k, the largest ever measured in any month except October. And we all know how 2012 ended up...

we've seen some kind of outliers in the past and interestingly they were very often compensated the next day or so by a steep counter move (no matter the direction) which for me hint to suspected errors in measurement. for examples i've seen at times that areas, mostly coastlines or lakes were suddenly ice covered and counted while the other day the "ice" was gone and the curve dropped. this is why i like the 5-day average graph by NSIDC which makes up for that kind of peaks. of course i'm not sayin' that it can't be real, just share some observeations and impressions :-) keep up the good work Jim, your graphs and other contributions are so valuable for me and is assume many others. thanks

[anotheramethyst]

you may be right!!! on the other hand, with such low area and extent for the year there's plenty of roo. for big increases in places that are normally already frozen.  so like you said, it could be an error or it could be real.  either way, it's not very likely to last!!!

[anotheramethyst]

you may be right!!! on the other hand, with such low area and extent for the year there's plenty of roo. for big increases in places that are normally already frozen.  so like you said, it could be an error or it could be real.  either way, it's not very likely to last!!!

[magnamentis]

absolutely, this is what i posted somewhere a few days aga, the farhter noth the ice edge is, the more room for fast and widespread freezover, while it can be only shortlived at this time of the year.

BTW OT but i use to opportunity to share an observation wich i made while paying a bit of attention to
day and night temperature difference in places far north where the sun is up and of course i chose only blue sky conditions to compare. right now, as an example the difference in Kimmirut, Baffin island has been between 3-5C between day and night. so where the waters are dark the impact of the raising sun is imminent.

interesting times because there is a lot of dark open water right now, let's see :-)

thanks for your feedback i agree and it's much appreciated.

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,867,055 km²（February 26, 2016）2^nd lowest measured for the date.

[Lord M Vader]

Seems like we are going to cross the 14 mn km² mark in a few days or so. And is todays value higher than last years "Mad max" or?

//LMV

[Jim Pettit]

Seems like we are going to cross the 14 mn km² mark in a few days or so. And is todays value higher than last years "Mad max" or?

//LMV

In spite of an unusual (for late February) two-day extent increase of nearly a quarter-of-a-million square kilometers, 2016 has yet to surpass 2015's maximum. But it's close, with just 65k separating the two.

It's interesting--well, to me--to note that despite last year's early, low maximum, extent stayed above 13 million and below 14 million for a whopping 100 days (15 January through 24 April). Wondering whether 2016 will see a repeat of that plateau...

[Buddy]

It's interesting--well, to me--to note that despite last year's early, low maximum, extent stayed above 13 million and below 14 million for a whopping 100 days (15 January through 24 April). Wondering whether 2016 will see a repeat of that plateau...

100 days IS a long plateau....

[seaicesailor]

The plateau happens because it takes time, to Spring, to kick in melting in inner seas. Only refreeze or expansion in the outer regions disrupt the plateau. David R got that right last year. My hunch was that hot years as post '14 and '15 should see a less extent ice in outer seas for obvious reasons (ocean will stay ice free at higher latitudes in average)

[seaicesailor]

IJIS:

13,780,109 km²（February 24, 2016）lowest value measured for the date.

The 150k km2 seen in IJIS extent this morning is the largest single-day increase seen in February in the last 14 years, and it's the first since last November. However--and this almost goes without saying--such late-freezing, low-latitude ice is seldom long for this world. After all, March 2012 saw a single-day increase of 186k, the largest ever measured in any month except October. And we all know how 2012 ended up...

we've seen some kind of outliers in the past and interestingly they were very often compensated the next day or so by a steep counter move (no matter the direction) which for me hint to suspected errors in measurement. for examples i've seen at times that areas, mostly coastlines or lakes were suddenly ice covered and counted while the other day the "ice" was gone and the curve dropped. this is why i like the 5-day average graph by NSIDC which makes up for that kind of peaks. of course i'm not sayin' that it can't be real, just share some observeations and impressions :-) keep up the good work Jim, your graphs and other contributions are so valuable for me and is assume many others. thanks

Outer seas of the Pacific got North winds and cold and a quick layer of ice was formed and drifted outwards. It is real. Wipneus nicely showed that in an animation. These layers disappear as fast as they come.
If North winds would sustain over Barentz we would see Svalbard surrounded by ice. That happened in 2014 or 2013 and the ice extent did not diminish until October in that case.
Sea ice out of Arctic and Hudson fluctuates very much, you can expect anything. But this year is really warm . . .

[DavidR]

The plateau happens because it takes time, to Spring, to kick in melting in inner seas. Only refreeze or expansion in the outer regions disrupt the plateau. David R got that right last year. My hunch was that hot years as post '14 and '15 should see a less extent ice in outer seas for obvious reasons (ocean will stay ice free at higher latitudes in average)

In  2015 there was virtually no ice growth in the Pacific after January.  This may have been a consequence of the entire North Pacific being at record warm temperatures for the last  half of 2014.

This year there has been little growth in the Bering which remains near last years levels,  but Okhotz has increased by over 500K km^2 in extent during February and is now greater than any recent year. The continuous warmth in the Arctic basin seems to have been compensated by a patch of cold over Okhotz. This means that extent on the Atlantic side has actually decreased during February and in the long  term we can expect that to have a more significant impact  on the minimum.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-regional.png
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-regional.png

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,912,310 km²（February 27, 2016）

[Jim Pettit]

IJIS:

13,912,310 km²（February 27, 2016）

And just like that, IJIS extent falls to 4th place. That's the first time it hasn't been in the top three since January 12. However, a couple of telling factoids: 1) this month has seen the lowest February average on record, and by a significant margin. And 2) today's extent is still about 400k lower than it was on this same day in 2012.

[jdallen]

IJIS:

13,912,310 km²（February 27, 2016）

And just like that, IJIS extent falls to 4th place. That's the first time it hasn't been in the top three since January 12. However, a couple of telling factoids: 1) this month has seen the lowest February average on record, and by a significant margin. And 2) today's extent is still about 400k lower than it was on this same day in 2012.

I think it's worth adding there is a qualitative difference in the extent as well.  The recent expansion of extent has almost entirely been in peripheral seas, and the lions share of that in the Okhotsk.  It's not in areas nor of quality that will do much good to slow down the coming melt.

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,942,507 km²（February 28, 2016）

[LRC1962]

I think it's worth adding there is a qualitative difference in the extent as well.  The recent expansion of extent has almost entirely been in peripheral seas, and the lions share of that in the Okhotsk.  It's not in areas nor of quality that will do much good to slow down the coming melt.

I agree. I would also say that for all practical purposes we have reached the max a couple of weeks ago. Not numbers wise, but any new ice formed will be too thin to stick aground very long and we are still getting fairly strong winds mostly in the export direction on both sides of the pole. This does a couple of things. Breaks up even MYI spreading out. and pushing a large amount of ice 'melting' it off. End result is that sure you have freezing that will replace that ice, but all that new ice even if it gets piled up will be salty ice. The rest will be thin and both of those in no way replaces what has been lost this season.

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,958,832 km²（February 29, 2016）

[slow wing]

So we're higher than last year's maximum of 13,942,060 km^2*, on 15 February 2015, which is the minimum yearly maximum on record.

*as recorded by Espen earlier in this thread: http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,230.msg46649.html#msg46649

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,924,194 km²（March 1, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,880,276 km²（March 2, 2016）

[DavidR]

If this drop keeps up I'm going to have to  put  29 Feb back into my  tables.  Both IJIS and NSIDC have a 29 Feb maximum at the moment 

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,824,457 km²（March 3, 2016）

[Espen]

The melting season 2016 is now on!

[James Lovejoy]

The melting season 2016 is now on!

That may turn out to be like the person who asked someone if his blinker was on.
"It's on.  It's off.  It's on."

[Lennart van der Linde]

Melting season: could be, but look at 2014 and 2003, where extent still increased after a short dip around this time...

[Neven]

Yes, we're getting a cold snap with northerly winds in the Bering Sea in a couple of days, so the max could end a bit higher still.

[jdallen]

Yes, we're getting a cold snap with northerly winds in the Bering Sea in a couple of days, so the max could end a bit higher still.

Put "cold snap" in quotes, Neven. 

Yes, it's forecast to be 20C cooler than it has typically been in the CAB.  That only puts it about 5C below normal, and not over much of the basin at that.  Add to that, baseline temps are starting to ramp up.  Add still more to that, much of the basin will still remain 2-5C above normal during most of the next week.  Still a lot of angry orange over the basin.

[Espen]

Yes, we're getting a cold snap with northerly winds in the Bering Sea in a couple of days, so the max could end a bit higher still.

Once bitten, twice shy 

[Tensor]

Yes, we're getting a cold snap with northerly winds in the Bering Sea in a couple of days, so the max could end a bit higher still.

Once bitten, twice shy 

Heheheheh, yeah Neven won't call it, he'll just start the melting season thread.   

[Neven]

Once bitten, twice shy 

You bet! 

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,789,796 km²（March 4, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,792,369 km²（March 5, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

 13,796,993 km²（March 6, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,858,745 km²（March 7, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

 13,921,066 km²（March 8, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,898,483 km²（March 9, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,855,406 km²（March 10, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,871,056 km²（March 11, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,872,861 km²（March 13, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

13,837,007 km²（March 14, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

 13,874,820 km²（March 15, 2016）

[Espen]

IJIS:

 13,881,869 km²（March 16, 2016）