ASLR. Yes. It was sloppy, bad wording on my part and also a sloppy correlation attempt. I wrote "After El Nino" = transition between El Nino to La Nina, which also tends to be shorter than the transition between La Nina and El Nino. Presently it has been a rather slow transition. If it continues and stays in neutral, it might indicate that the demise of the ice will slow down a bit from now on.
Sleepy,
While of course you might be correct; nevertheless, per BFTV's post today in the "2016 Melt Season" thread:
"The way the ECM builds a strong -ve NAO into the start of June, pulling warm air up through Canada into the CA is eerily similar to early June 2012.
The 8-10 height anomaly map shows a strong signal for high pressure over Greenland in early June."
This is exactly what Scribbler was talking about due to a transition from an El Nino to a La Nina: "pulling warm air up through Canada into the CA ... high pressure over Greenland in early June".
That is all that I am saying.
Very Best,
ASLR
Edit: You posted the attached POAMA Nino 3.4 projection issued May 22 2016, in the El Nino thread, and it supports the idea that there may well be a transition from El Nino to La Nina conditions from late May to early June 2016.
Thanks for your replies ASLR, and for the heads up to BFTV's post as I haven't had time to follow much else than ENSO for a while. Let's see when June comes, that might very well happen. One key to understanding forecasts is to follow them persistently and I have not followed those.
But what I've been playing with for a long time now is the slower than expected decline of this El Nino, as you might know from the present El Nino thread. And as for my post there, my point was really what I wrote in my post before that graph:
Trying to determine a La Nina, the Nino4 region is the key for shifting deep convection patterns westwards, and it's still at +0.6°C.
And speaking about following forecasts, the previous forecast from POAMA (Nino34 attached to be consistent) showed a more bullish transition into La Nina than their last, so the pattern is still there. The transition is still slower than expected. The same trend can be observed in the nino plumes from ECMWF. We still might end up with a transition like after the 91-92 El Nino. And then the ice up there might just resist another year, dispite todays numbers presented by Espen above.
How it will end, is inevitable though.