In the thread "The 2016 melting season" post #1775 I wrote:
"In any case, as IJIS hasn't come up with their numbers but Uni Bremen graph shows a fairly constant melt rate before the outage and I think we could get a good approximation by extrapolating the 4 missing days with the melt rate for the 4 days of May 24-27. If I do that I get a SIE of roughly 10,47 Mn km2 for May 31. Let's see what IJIS come up with later!!!"
I think that is a good approximation for the SIE number per May 31.
Best case scenario:
The record low per June 30 from 2010 is 8,885,384 km2. One of the lousiest June months since 2003 is 2004 which saw a loss of about 1,3 Mn km2. Such a lousy month would take us down to 9,2 Mn km2 per June 30. On a second place we find June 2015 which managed to lose about 1,4 Mn km2. So, all in all, roughly speaking there should be about 90% chance that we'll we lowest on record by June 30 given the loss in SIE for the years 2003-2015.
Worst case scenario
In 2012 a massive 2,4 Mn km2 sea ice melted away in June and 2010 saw a loss of 2,3 Mn km2. In a worst case scenario we should be at 8,0-8,1 Mn km2 by June 30.
Prediction Interval for June 30:
To summarize, the SIE numbers per IJIS by June 30 should be anywhere between 8,0-9,2 Mn km2.
Best, LMV