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Peter Ellis

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #150 on: June 17, 2013, 10:26:47 PM »
Considering that the "cliff" is defined based on CAPIE (i.e. CA area relative to IJIS extent), it's not only not surprising it doesn't show up on IJIS, it's a logical impossibility for it to do so!

Chris Reynolds thinks (and I agree) that the "cliff" is in large part due to melt ponding.  This lowers area but not extent, for two reasons:
(a) melt ponds cause the measured concentration to drop to intermediate levels ~50% that affect area but don't trip the extent threshold of 15%
(b) CA and IJIS use different algorithms to turn microwave brightness into ice concentration measurement.  CA uses the same algorithm year-round, while IJIS tunes its summer algorithm to be less affected by melt ponding.

Thus, it's not surprising that the "cliff" showed up in the last week or so, concurrent with the onset of melt ponding across the Arctic fringes - first in the CA, then in the Laptev/East Siberian Sea, and now in the Chukchi and Beaufort.  Depending how abrupt the onset of melt ponding in the central basin is, there may well be more cliff to come.

More interesting is what was happening back at the start of the month, when there was a mini-cliff (remember: defined as area dropping off relative to extent), at a time when there was <i>not</i> any melt ponding in the Central Arctic - no darkening visible by MODIS, and all mass balance buoys still showing substantial snow.  This it seems to me was the effect of the persistent cyclone in diverging and melting the ice, causing area to go down but not tripping the area threshold.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #151 on: June 18, 2013, 10:58:43 AM »
IJIS:

10,826,719 km2 (June 17, 2013)  down 87,656 km2 from previous

697,500 km2 above 2012
and
192,094 km2 above 2000s average
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #152 on: June 19, 2013, 11:07:57 AM »
IJIS:

10,698,750 km2 (June 18, 2013) down 127,969 km2 from previous

634,531 km2 above 2012
and
126,062 km2 above 2000s average
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #153 on: June 20, 2013, 10:59:34 AM »
IJIS:

10,656,094 km2 (June 19, 2013) down 42,656 km2 from previous.
and
759,531 km2 above 2012
and
145,938 km2 above 2000s average.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #154 on: June 21, 2013, 11:00:22 AM »
IJIS:

10,632,500 km2 (June 20, 2013) down 29,375 km2 from previous (revised)

838,750 km2 above 2012

177,594 km2 above 2000s average
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #155 on: June 21, 2013, 11:03:23 AM »
Will 2013 be 1,000,000 km2 above 2012 anytime during this melting season?
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #156 on: June 21, 2013, 12:36:39 PM »
Espen,

I'm not going to rule out the possibility of 2013 lagging 2012 by 1M because the current state of widespread slush is so easy to disperse.  However within next 2-3 weeks I expect to see some serious plunges off of the cliff.

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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #157 on: June 21, 2013, 12:43:52 PM »
OldLeatherneck;

I have been looking for that cliff for a while now? ???
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OldLeatherneck

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #158 on: June 21, 2013, 12:51:43 PM »
Patience is a virtue.

Remember we have at least 90 days before we start writing the "Post Game Summary" of the 2013 melt season. 
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Artful Dodger

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #159 on: June 22, 2013, 07:40:14 AM »
SIE is not MELT. It is a proxy for what we're actually after, which is the surface heat energy budget of the Arctic.

All of our other measures are proxies in that sense. For example:

CT sea ice area is between 3 to 6 days behind for this date, compared to the last 10 years.

The annual peak in Mauna Loa CO2 (a proxy for the change in seasons in the N. Hemisphere) was about a week behind average.

All peripheral seas surrounding the Arctic ocean melt out every year (at least in the last 10). Ignore them, they are white noise. Only MYI matters.

The Central Arctic Basin (the only area that counts) is either ahead of, or very close to, the record decline of 2012.

Now, tell me again about the bad weather.
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Lodger

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #160 on: June 22, 2013, 01:59:32 PM »
SIE is not MELT. It is a proxy for what we're actually after, which is the surface heat energy budget of the Arctic.

All of our other measures are proxies in that sense. For example:

CT sea ice area is between 3 to 6 days behind for this date, compared to the last 10 years.

The annual peak in Mauna Loa CO2 (a proxy for the change in seasons in the N. Hemisphere) was about a week behind average.

All peripheral seas surrounding the Arctic ocean melt out every year (at least in the last 10). Ignore them, they are white noise. Only MYI matters.

The Central Arctic Basin (the only area that counts) is either ahead of, or very close to, the record decline of 2012.

Now, tell me again about the bad weather.
That's the way I see it, too, Lodger. Ignoring those areas where we have high confidence that a  near-total melt-out will occur and concentrating on the CAB paints a very different picture of what's occurring this year. Even if no new record is reached, the set-up for subsequent years looks dismal.

I could be wrong, of course. Sadly, it wouldn't be the first time.

Bob Wallace

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #161 on: June 22, 2013, 07:00:23 PM »
Quote
All peripheral seas surrounding the Arctic ocean melt out every year (at least in the last 10). Ignore them, they are white noise. Only MYI matters.

The Central Arctic Basin (the only area that counts) is either ahead of, or very close to, the record decline of 2012.

A very good point.  Unless we encounter "a meteor hit" the regions outside the CAB will melt, except for bits of ice left in the Greenland Sea and CAA.  But if they melt much slower than in recent years they could slow melting in the CAB - their ice can replenish CAB melt.

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #162 on: June 23, 2013, 06:14:03 PM »
IJIS:

10,480,781 km2 (June 22, 2013) down 47,757 km2 from previous.

700,312 km2 more than 2012.

159,406 km2 more than 2000s average.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #163 on: June 23, 2013, 11:46:53 PM »
Quote
All peripheral seas surrounding the Arctic ocean melt out every year (at least in the last 10). Ignore them, they are white noise. Only MYI matters.

The Central Arctic Basin (the only area that counts) is either ahead of, or very close to, the record decline of 2012.

A very good point.  Unless we encounter "a meteor hit" the regions outside the CAB will melt, except for bits of ice left in the Greenland Sea and CAA.  But if they melt much slower than in recent years they could slow melting in the CAB - their ice can replenish CAB melt.

Maybe we're still used to the ice pack melting from the outer edges inwards, but last year we saw a large part of the ice pack get detached because of GAC-2012, and this year we see August-2010-like holes in June.

But what is interesting as well, is that the cracking event might be a factor in the very late break-up in the Beaufort Sea.

Lots of counterintuitive stuff for our poor little brains...








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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #164 on: June 24, 2013, 09:36:27 AM »
Neven;

"But what is interesting as well, is that the cracking event might be a factor in the very late break-up in the Beaufort Sea."

I believe it is a major factor, the extend alone is several double digit percentage points higher due to the cracking event.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #165 on: June 24, 2013, 10:58:08 AM »
IJIS:

10,448,438 km2 (June 23, 2013)  down 32,343 km2 from previous.

740,157 km2 above 2012.

186,907 km2 above 2000s average.
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Frivolousz21

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #166 on: June 24, 2013, 11:33:29 AM »
To reach 4.5 mil on Sept 1st.

Jaxa has to lose like 90K or more per day.

wow
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Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #167 on: June 24, 2013, 01:00:13 PM »
To reach 4.5 mil on Sept 1st.

Jaxa has to lose like 90K or more per day.

wow

Hmmm. JAXA extent is at 10,448,438 km2.

To reach 4.5 million, then, it needs to lose 5,948,438 km2.

There are 71 days left until September 1.

That means extent needs to drop by an average of 83,781 km2 per day between now and then.

Over that same stretch of days last year, daily extent loss was 83,851 km2--and that, mind you, was done with much less extent to start with (as so much more was already gone by this date).

Bottom line: 2013 will walk right through 4.5 million, then 4 million, to end up no more than a few hundred thousand square kilometers above last year's record number.

jdallen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #168 on: June 24, 2013, 07:02:15 PM »
Presumption: 2013 ice in extent is the same/will behave the same as 2012 ice.

It's not. Will it still melt out at the same rate?  Will we have comparable weather?

Too many new variables we don't understand, interacting in entirely new and disturbing ways. I'm reminded of the oscillation of a spinning top, as it drops below the energy threshold necessary to keep it stable. Conversely and perhaps a better metaphor, a mug of water in a microwave, just before it explodes into a boil. It looks mostly the same, it appears to be in a consistent state, right up to the moment of transition.

We shall know better in a few weeks.
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #169 on: June 25, 2013, 10:58:50 AM »
IJIS:

10,391,406 km2
(June 24, 2013)  down 57,032 km2 from previous.

743,750 km2 above 2012.

191,765 km2 above 2000s average.

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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #170 on: June 26, 2013, 10:59:57 AM »
IJIS:

10,284,844 km2 (June 25, 2013)  down 110,469 km2 from previous (revised)

713,750 km2 above 2012.

153,078 km2 above 2000s average.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #171 on: June 27, 2013, 10:59:08 AM »
IJIS:

10,161,719 km2 (June 26, 2013) down 123,125 km2

707,500 km2 above 2012

100,516 km2 above 2000s average
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wanderer

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #172 on: June 27, 2013, 12:10:02 PM »
To reach 4.5 mil on Sept 1st.

Jaxa has to lose like 90K or more per day.

wow

Seems like you were heard by the Arctic  ;)

Frivolousz21

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #173 on: June 27, 2013, 12:15:39 PM »
There are some vulnerable spots.

The Kara/Hudson/Baffin will keep losing fast.

The beaufort, ESS, and Chuchki will start opening up.

But the big question is the Nansen Basin
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werther

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #174 on: June 27, 2013, 12:18:35 PM »
What about the Nansen Basin, Friv?
That looks as one region in the CAB that can hardly get to the September refreeze in a better state than last year.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #175 on: June 27, 2013, 01:24:46 PM »
the Nansen Basin is set up for an epic(historically speaking melt out).

Werther it will or not happen is the question.

But the ice looks horrible almost in the entire Nansen Basin besides just North of Greenland.

Anything from the Pole on a 45 degree angle towards the Fram then East to the Kara and East again towards the N. laptev/ESS/Chukchi is in terrible never before seen in modern times condition.


I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #176 on: June 28, 2013, 11:03:39 AM »
IJIS:

10,084,688 km2 (June 27, 2013)  down 77,031 km2

688,594 km2 above 2012

80,235 km2 above 2000s average.
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wanderer

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #177 on: June 29, 2013, 10:59:36 AM »
The latest value : 9,919,219 km2 (June 28, 2013) 

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #178 on: June 29, 2013, 10:59:42 AM »
IJIS:

9,919,219 km2 (June 28, 2013) first time below 10 M and down 165,469 km2 from previous.

548,750 km2 above 2012

-19,187 km2 below 2000s average, first time in a long period.
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Artful Dodger

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #179 on: June 30, 2013, 08:50:27 AM »
Continental heat has arrived over the Arctic ocean.  :-*
« Last Edit: July 02, 2013, 10:13:04 AM by Artful Dodger »
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #180 on: June 30, 2013, 10:56:23 AM »
IJIS:

9,832,188 km2 (June 29, 2013)  down 87,031 km2 from previous

536,563 km2 above 2012

26,015 km2 below 2000s average
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #181 on: July 01, 2013, 10:56:18 AM »
IJIS:

9,816,406 km2 (June 30, 2013) down 15,782 km2 from previous.

671,718 km2 above 2012 (revised ::))

27,718 km2 above 2000s average
« Last Edit: July 01, 2013, 04:56:03 PM by Espen »
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Frivolousz21

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #182 on: July 01, 2013, 04:23:23 PM »
It's closer to 700k above 2012
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #183 on: July 02, 2013, 10:56:18 AM »
IJIS:

 9,685,625 km2 (July 1, 2013) down 130,781 km2 from previous

628,594 km2 above 2012

37,719 km 2 below 2000s average
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Frivolousz21

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #184 on: July 03, 2013, 10:20:41 AM »
I am anticipating a couple huge drops on Jaxa coming up.

I know the AMSR2 graphs they use don't mean squat since they use wind-sat.  But it shows some major loses all over.
I got a nickname for all my guns
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a two shot that I call Tupac
and a dirty pistol that love to crew hop
my TEC 9 Imma call T-Pain
my 3-8 snub Imma call Lil Wayne
machine gun named Missy so loud
it go e-e-e-e-ow e-e-e-e-e-e-blaow

Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #185 on: July 03, 2013, 10:50:08 AM »
I've been seeing some big changes on the UB SIC day-to-day comparisons for the past couple of days, echoed by Wipneus' work with 3.125 resolution data, and so I think 2013 is going to creep closer and closer in the week to come.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #186 on: July 03, 2013, 10:56:16 AM »
IJIS:

9,466,719 km2 (July 2, 2013) down 218,906 km2 from previous

532,188 km2 above 2012

180,281 km2 below 2000s average.
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Neven

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #187 on: July 03, 2013, 11:11:49 AM »
Et voilĂ , a double century (might be revised tomorrow). If it doesn't get revised, it will be the biggest July daily drop in the 2005-2013 period.

2013 dips below 2005 and 2008, after dipping below 2009 yesterday.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #188 on: July 03, 2013, 02:38:45 PM »
not going to lie this melt season has left me rather confused.

This might well be due to this being my first real year of actually watching the ice so to speak but wow have the projections been all over the place.

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #189 on: July 03, 2013, 03:23:26 PM »
My strong belief is that Hudson Bay and Kara Sea contributed the most to this double century break. Switching between Bremen's June 30th and July 2nd renderings makes this excruciatingly obvious.

June 30
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2data/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2013/jun/asi-AMSR2-n6250-20130630-v5_nic.png

July 2
http://www.iup.uni-bremen.de:8084/amsr2data/asi_daygrid_swath/n6250/2013/jul/asi-AMSR2-n6250-20130702-v5_nic.png

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #190 on: July 03, 2013, 04:28:40 PM »
not going to lie this melt season has left me rather confused.

This might well be due to this being my first real year of actually watching the ice so to speak but wow have the projections been all over the place.
yeah well. arguably it's worse for those who've been watching for longer, bcz most of what they thought they knew no longer seems to work. how much of the slurry will survive and how much will melt away suddenly is not easy to answer, because we've never seen so much of it like this before

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #191 on: July 03, 2013, 06:12:38 PM »
yeah well. arguably it's worse for those who've been watching for longer, bcz most of what they thought they knew no longer seems to work.

You can say that again! This is my fourth melting season (and of course, I looked at previous years as well for comparison), but I have no idea where this could be going. The few things I learned during the 2010 and 2011 melting seasons had practically turned obsolete last year.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #192 on: July 03, 2013, 06:13:48 PM »


After the big losses in the past 3 days, I thought I would look at how much the extent would have to lose daily to catch up to previous years, by July 31st.  Looking at the above chart, 2013 is only a few days behind 2007, however, it was this week that 2007 had some dramatic losses.

The first table below shows the average daily extent losses from July 3rd to July 31st for years 2007, 2011 and 2012 respectively.  The second table shows how much the average daily extent loss, in 2013, needs to be for the remainder of July to tie the respective years by July 31st.

Considering the current conditions in the arctic and the projected environmental conditions for the next week, I believe that 2013 will make up a great deal of ground during July.  The question still remains, will it be enough for 2013 to stand any chance of breaking the record of 2012?? 

Or do we need another repeat of GAC-2012?

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #193 on: July 03, 2013, 06:55:57 PM »
OldLeatherneck;

I am convinced that some odd weather system will show up in the next 4 weeks or so, it will at least it give watts some more excuses, but watching Modis and Bremen I am sure we have seen nothing yet!
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #194 on: July 04, 2013, 10:51:43 AM »
IJIS:

9,477,344 km2 (July 2, 2013) revised

9,327,188 (July 3, 2013) down 150,156 km2 from previous.

514,688 km2 above 2012

228,547 km2 below 2000s average.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #195 on: July 04, 2013, 11:14:01 AM »
The AMSR2 ice concentration map from Jaxa/IJIS is showing a polynya in the middle of the Beaufort for a couple of days now. It is not visible on the AMSR2 maps of Uni Hamburg and Uni Bremen. The  polynya in Chukchi at least falls in an area of low concentration on those maps.

Image attached.

Artful Dodger

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #196 on: July 04, 2013, 11:36:52 AM »
The AMSR2 ice concentration map from Jaxa/IJIS is showing a polynya in the middle of the Beaufort for a couple of days now. It is not visible on the AMSR2 maps of Uni Hamburg and Uni Bremen. The  polynya in Chukchi at least falls in an area of low concentration on those maps.

Oh it's real all right, Wipneus.  8)

The Beaufort Barepatch appears in the SMOS sea ice thickness chart as does the Chukchi Collapse and the Barentsz Bight.  ;D

EDIT: FTP link removed since folder now depopulated.  ???
« Last Edit: July 06, 2013, 08:57:12 AM by Artful Dodger »
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Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #197 on: July 04, 2013, 11:45:40 AM »
The AMSR2 ice concentration map from Jaxa/IJIS is showing a polynya in the middle of the Beaufort for a couple of days now. It is not visible on the AMSR2 maps of Uni Hamburg and Uni Bremen. The  polynya in Chukchi at least falls in an area of low concentration on those maps.

Image attached.

And here is an image of it:
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #198 on: July 05, 2013, 10:56:16 AM »
IJIS:

9,255,469 km2 (July 4, 2013) down 71,719 km2 from previous.

523,281 km2 above 2012.

204,312 km2 below 2000s average.
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Re: IJIS/JAXA
« Reply #199 on: July 05, 2013, 11:31:11 AM »
Seems like very small drop is that likely to be revised (compared to the last few days) is that likely to be revised?