IJIS

[Tigertown]

No update yet. Has been flooding in Japan. Maybe computers got wet.

[Juan C. García]

No update yet. Has been flooding in Japan. Maybe computers got wet.

Sounds like it should be on the topic: "Consequences - Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change" 

[Tigertown]

If it made the update late, I don't know? I just want my update. Having withdrawal.

[budmantis]

They did update the map, but no numbers.

[slow wing]

No update yet. Has been flooding in Japan. Maybe computers got wet.

Yep: Typhoon Mindulle.

 From memory, GFS has it bottoming out in the 950s hPa but ECMWF forecasts it going down to 917 hPa!!

[Tigertown]

If it is interfering some way, we may be a couple or even a few days without an update.

[Neven]

Still no update, eh? 

Worst possible time...

[pauldry600]

No updates

Im sweating and shaking

Wer prob around 4.7m somewhere

[Bill Fothergill]

Still no update, eh? 

Worst possible time...

For some of us following the progress of Northabout as she passed south of Wrangle en route for Barrow, it was a double dose of "cold turkey". On certain platforms, the live tracking went haywire for the best part of a day - just as the ship was approaching 180E.

However, it was working again by last night - let's hope that JAXA/NIPR can also resolve their problem in a roughly similar timeframe.

[Buddy]

Still no update, eh? 

Worst possible time...

Fourth down and goal with the ball on the 2 yard line....10 seconds left on the clock....he hands the ball off to Marshawn Lynch and........then the satellite dish goes on the fritz!!

Amazing...couldn't be worse timing.  You just can't script this any better.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Fourth down and goal with the ball on the 2 yard line....10 seconds left on the clock....he hands the ball off to Marshawn Lynch and........then the satellite dish goes on the fritz!!

Amazing...couldn't be worse timing.  You just can't script this any better.

It is pretty annoying. At least we have plenty of other sources to keep us informed nowadays.

Actually, I'm a little surprised I haven't heard the deniers claiming that someone is trying to hide the recovery yet!

[Bill Fothergill]

...
Actually, I'm a little surprised I haven't heard the deniers claiming that someone is trying to hide the recovery yet!

On the subject of denialist spin, but otherwise OT, what's the betting that the following recent story gets regurgitated as "sea level rise isn't happening"?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37187100

[Juan C. García]

...
Actually, I'm a little surprised I haven't heard the deniers claiming that someone is trying to hide the recovery yet!

On the subject of denialist spin, but otherwise OT, what's the betting that the following recent story gets regurgitated as "sea level rise isn't happening"?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-37187100

We are off-topic now, but let's say that they are commercials while the show starts again.

"The largest increase in water has been on the Tibetan Plateau, while the Aral Sea has been the biggest conversion of water to land."

Aral Sea? Come on! That is an example of Global Warming or an example of the things that a government should not do with the water of a lake.
That can not be that the Sea level is not rising!

"The researchers said Dubai's coast had been significantly extended, with the creation of new islands to house luxury resorts."  Let's wait for sea level rise!

Back to IJIS, I hope! 

[pauldry600]

A good old chunk of ice is now gone from maps and even the arm that Neven mentioned in his post is disappating

4.5 to 4.6m approx IJIS could be more 4.5m

Will this year be 2nd or 3rd

[Juan C. García]

A good old chunk of ice is now gone from maps and even the arm that Neven mentioned in his post is disappating

4.5 to 4.6m approx IJIS could be more 4.5m

Will this year be 2nd or 3rd

Shadow NSIDC extent is now 4.6910 -dropping 158.8k. CAB (-77k), Chukchi (-56k) and ESS (-31k) took the beatings.
2016 is now in second place, taking over 2011 and 2007.

There is an attached delta map where these beatings are painted red.

It is disappointing that we are without IJIS at this time. So let's guess. According to Wipneus, Shadow NSIDC Extent is now second, only above 2012! And Shadow NSIDC is really the Daily NSIDC Extent, without the 5-day average.

I believe that IJIS should reflect that 2016 is below 2007, being below all the other years too, except 2012. On August 27, IJIS 2007 had 4,568,402 km2.

So I guess that IJIS will be below 4.56M km2 on August 27, assuming that the IJIS 2-day average is made on IJIS graph, but no on IJIS figure. Does anyone know if the IJIS figure includes the 2-day average?

Edit: I will respond to myself. 

There is a coincidence with the IJIS data and the IJIS graph, so the IJIS figure has the 2-days average. It is not necessary that the big drop that NSIDC had will also IJIS have it, but if the drop is real and it also happen in IJIS, then the 4.56M km2 will be reflected tomorrow or before, because IJIS has more resolution than NSIDC.

[seaicesailor]

Eyeballing the decreases of Wipneus' Jaxa-based extent since the service was interrupted; not sure it is the same thing, but the deltas over a few days must be similar. IJIS must be 4.3 - 4.4 M km2 and thus below 2007. 

[dmarcus]

Pretty good eyeballing, seaicesailor. The actual number for August 28 is 4433K km2, which is indeed below 2007 for the same date, and is also below 2007 for August 29 and 30.

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,432,888 km²（August 28, 2016）2^nd lowest measured for the date.

[budmantis]

2nd place and most likely there to stay. Espen, I'm sure the Arctic isn't having an "ice" day!

[Neven]

Hurray, it's back!

[BornFromTheVoid]

How 2016 ADS extent compares to previous minima up to August 28th

[Juan C. García]

So, on August 28th 2016, IJIS has 4,432,888 km2. It had important drops during the time that it was out of service:

Date         2016 (km2)       Drop (k km2)
Aug-23      4,811,887    
Aug-24      4,749,311               62.6
Aug-25      4,645,694             103.6
Aug-26      4,545,963               99.7
Aug-27      4,464,681               81.3
Aug-28      4,432,888               31.8

Seems that 2016 will not have problem reaching the minimum of 2011 and 2015. So, the challenge is surpass the 2007 minimum and maybe surpass the "Less than 4 million km2" mark. If we assume that these targets should be reached on September 12th, then the average drop should be 24.5k km2 to reach 2007 and 28.9k km2 to reach the "Less than 4 million km2" mark.

Interesting end of the ASI melting season!
Let's see what happens! 

For comparision, these are the 2007 daily drops:

Date         2007 (km2)      Drop (k km2)
Aug-29      4,471,798           48.6
Aug-30      4,442,119           29.7
Aug-31      4,413,960           28.2
Sep-1        4,413,908             0.1
Sep-2        4,412,671             1.2
Sep-3        4,379,815           32.9
Sep-4        4,331,118           48.7
Sep-5        4,277,880           53.2
Sep-6        4,240,157           37.7
Sep-7        4,216,577           23.6
Sep-8        4,194,521           22.1
Sep-9        4,173,372           21.1
Sep-10      4,144,892           28.5
Sep-11      4,126,762           18.1
Sep-12      4,128,671            -1.9
Sep-13      4,135,628            -7.0
Sep-14      4,097,698           37.9
Sep-15      4,068,688           29.0
Sep-16      4,070,114            -1.4
Sep-17      4,065,739             4.4

[Shared Humanity]

Love that chart. 3rd lowest is a lock. 2nd lowest is very possible. Lowest is out of the question.

[magnamentis]

Love that chart. 3rd lowest is a lock. 2nd lowest is very possible. Lowest is out of the question.

considering that 16% ice counts as 100% extent i would not yet sign the out of question while probability is definitely in the lower percentages by now. what is "in the question" would be a few more of those cyclones extending the melting season by further drawing warm air into the artic after september 15th, but as mentioned before, i voted for second since may and stick to it, hence agree with your core statement, just discarding the possibility entirely i would not.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Love that chart. 3rd lowest is a lock. 2nd lowest is very possible. Lowest is out of the question.

considering that 16% ice counts as 100% extent i would not yet sign the out of question while probability is definitely in the lower percentages by now. what is "in the question" would be a few more of those cyclones extending the melting season by further drawing warm air into the artic after september 15th, but as mentioned before, i voted for second since may and stick to it, hence agree with your core statement, just discarding the possibility entirely i would not.

On the ADS record, the average (2002-2015) loss from now to the minimum is 371k, with the biggest drop being 518k in 2010. Using the NSIDC records, the biggest drop is 769k in 1984 (not directly comparable, but somewhat useful).
Given that we need to drop more than 1.25 million to catch 2012, I think you'd need to extend the melt season into October to achieve that!

[Tigertown]

Even if some melting was still happening by Oct. in some areas, wouldn't there be other areas re-freezing already to offset the losses?

[oren]

Even if some melting was still happening by Oct. in some areas, wouldn't there be other areas re-freezing already to offset the losses?

Yes.

[magnamentis]

Even if some melting was still happening by Oct. in some areas, wouldn't there be other areas re-freezing already to offset the losses?

yes to both why is said "low percentage probability/very unlikely and then the weather will play the key role which is why i mentioned stormy weather. if the sea is agitated more or less across the board like right now there will be little refreeze due to mixing. however, as mentioned i think the same like both of you and many others, it was just the "out of question" thingy that i would not sign yet due to the thinness and the many "poof" events we encountered. the day it goes it can vanish within hours as seen before and over quite wide areas.

interesting to see how things go, weather is the key and no-one can predict that accurately for more than 3-5 days.

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,403,833 km²（August 29, 2016）down 29,055 km² from previous.

[Tigertown]

Even if some melting was still happening by Oct. in some areas, wouldn't there be other areas re-freezing already to offset the losses?

yes to both why is said "low percentage probability/very unlikely and then the weather will play the key role which is why i mentioned stormy weather. if the sea is agitated more or less across the board like right now there will be little refreeze due to mixing. however, as mentioned i think the same like both of you and many others, it was just the "out of question" thingy that i would not sign yet due to the thinness and the many "poof" events we encountered. the day it goes it can vanish within hours as seen before and over quite wide areas.

interesting to see how things go, weather is the key and no-one can predict that accurately for more than 3-5 days.

I have to agree and am not so sure this season will end quietly, without some last minute antics. May or may not affect numbers that much for this year but still worth watching regardless. 

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,302,421 km²（August 30, 2016）down 104,412 km² from previous.

[Tigertown]

The last two days are a very good example of why not to look too hard at any one day, but rather the overall trend.

[Darvince]

Woah. Does IJIS have daily maps as well?

[Lord M Vader]

Wow, another century break!! Is this the latest century break we have seen or have there been anyone in September?

[Juan C. García]

Wow, another century break!! Is this the latest century break we have seen or have there been anyone in September?

Have been a century break on August 30^th, or afterwards (August 30^th to March 31^th)?
A good question!

[Tigertown]

Wow, another century break!! Is this the latest century break we have seen or have there been anyone in September?

Have been a century break on August 30^th, or afterwards (August 30^th to March 31^th)?
A good question!

Do you mean there has been one between those dates or not been? I am thinking typo, but not positive.

[Tigertown]

Woah. Does IJIS have daily maps as well?

I don't think so. Whatever map they have I can barely make heads or tails out of, but I am pretty sure they only update the numbers daily. Here is the link, if you don't have it already.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

[Bill Fothergill]

RE: Century break question

If my spreadsheet is still up to date (and coded correctly), the 5 latest-occurring centuries on the IJIS/ADS database were...

25th Aug 2008  114,930
25th Aug 2016  103,617
26th Aug 2015  137,503
27th Aug 2015  128,491
30th Aug 2016  101,412

[BornFromTheVoid]

Less than 46k to go to drop below 2011 and 2015 and guarantee 3rd lowest on record.

 

[abbottisgone]

<try again in another thread, N.>

[seaicesailor]

RE: Century break question

If my spreadsheet is still up to date (and coded correctly), the 5 latest-occurring centuries on the IJIS/ADS database were...

25th Aug 2008  114,930
25th Aug 2016  103,617
26th Aug 2015  137,503
27th Aug 2015  128,491
30th Aug 2016  101,412

Says a lot of two years with early open water, early snow cover loss, and high NH temp. Heat payback with interests. But let me not cherry-pick.

[Bill Fothergill]

RE: Century breaks (again)

I've just noticed the question had been expanded to include century breaks which happened either early or late in the calendar year.

2003 had a drop of just over quarter of a million sq kms from the 21st to 23rd of January.

2015 saw a drop of 113,505 on Feb 17th

During the March window(s), there have been 8 centuries.
2003, 2004, 2009,2012 (x2), 2014 (x2) and 2016

I don't think there have been any recorded in September, October, November or December - as yet.

[Jim Hunt]

Woah. Does IJIS have daily maps as well?

I don't think so. Whatever map they have I can barely make heads or tails out of, but I am pretty sure they only update the numbers daily. Here is the link, if you don't have it already.

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

Follow that link then click on the "Monitor View" tab. Doesn't that count as a "daily map"?

[Nick_Naylor]

The monitor views / daily maps were available even while the daily numbers were down for what seemed like forever.

[Jim Pettit]

Wow, another century break!! Is this the latest century break we have seen or have there been anyone in September?

As othets have said: no, this is the latest. As I wrote a few weeks ago, CBs are a rarity after August 15th. In fact, the second half of this month has now equaled the total number of SIE CBs recorded from August 16 thru December 31 over the previous ten year. (And in those same ten years, only one CB has been recorded between January 1 and March 7, and that was just last year.)

This month has now seen the second most August extent loss, behind only 2012.

[Buddy]

As othets have said: no, this is the latest. As I wrote a few weeks ago, CBs are a rarity after August 15th. In fact, the second half of this month has now equaled the total number of SIE CBs recorded from August 16 thru December 31 over the previous ten year. (And in those same ten years, only one CB has been recorded between January 1 and March 7, and that was just last year.)

This month has now seen the second most August extent loss, behind only 2012.

That speaks volumes about the condition of the ice right now.  Next 2 weeks will be interesting to see how much more ice will disappear.

Both the northern Pacific AND the northern Atlantic have VERY warm anomalies as far as SST goes.  As that warm water creeps closer and closer to the pole with each passing month/year....the ice has NO CHANCE.

 https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3668502585335462792#editor/target=post;postID=7264693089164824936;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=7;src=link

[Bill Fothergill]

... As I wrote a few weeks ago, CBs are a rarity after August 15th ...

Jim,
I knew the century break query had already been answered - I just couldn't remember when, and by whom.

[pauldry600]

Woah woah hold on a minute Arctic!

Your sposed to finish at 4.3mill for me.

What has man done.

Waves crashing ice with no defence.

In the lap of the Gods now

[Seumas]

 https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3668502585335462792#editor/target=post;postID=7264693089164824936;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=7;src=link

These links won't work for anyone other than you. Proper blogger links don't look like that - it should be quite readable. Try going to View Blog, then click the Post you want to actually link to. That should give you a proper link that looks something like https://myblog.blogger.com/2016/04/why-my-links-dont-work.html

Hope this helps!

[Espen]

IJIS:

4,242,650 km²（August 31, 2016）down 59,711 km² from previous.