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jdallen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3700 on: January 10, 2017, 05:57:43 PM »
That's four straight days of losses at the height of the freezing season. Has this ever happened before? Although the last two days losses are minimal, it is highly unusual if not unprecedented.
You can see some examples in the chart. Look at the blue line.

Good point Oren and thanks for pointing out what should have been obvious! Looking at the graph, it seems 2002, (or 2003?) had a drop of close to 500k somewhere between January 20 and 24.
The largest  fall since 2002 appears to  be 3 days in 2003 where the decline was 255K.  There was a 6 day fall in 2006 and a five day fall in 2012 both of around 200K, 2015 had a 4 day fall which was smaller than this one.  2009 also had six days with  one 3K rise in the middle. So  not that  unusual but  not something you  see every  year.  The smallest number of declines in January is 3 which occurred in 2008, 2014 & 2016
Yes, but those drops happened when there was well over 1 million KM2 more ice on board.
This space for Rent.

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3701 on: January 10, 2017, 06:23:07 PM »
That's four straight days of losses at the height of the freezing season. Has this ever happened before? Although the last two days losses are minimal, it is highly unusual if not unprecedented.
You can see some examples in the chart. Look at the blue line.

you're right and even though it won't matter much it was a few days later. my knowledge does not allow me to assess that difference of about a week or so as to it's significance. just mentioned it for the sake of it while you're certainly right :-)

Archimid

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3702 on: January 10, 2017, 08:02:41 PM »
 ludicrous : adjective
so foolish, unreasonable, or out of place as to be amusing; ridiculous.

I don't think it is foolish, unreasonable, or out of place to be alarmed at what we are seeing. I find it ludicrous not to be alarmed, since no one knows what will happen next and the changes are both unprecedented and unexpected.
I am an energy reservoir seemingly intent on lowering entropy for self preservation.

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3703 on: January 10, 2017, 08:16:29 PM »
Quote
I don't think it is foolish, unreasonable, or out of place to be alarmed at what we are seeing. I find it ludicrous not to be alarmed, since no one knows what will happen next and the changes are both unprecedented and unexpected.

Took the words right out of my mouth.  If being "alarmist" is someone who expects ALMOST ALL of the ice in the Arctic to "melt out" by 2020.......please count me in.

I'll come back to this later with figures.....but using ANNUALIZED figures for ice....when worried about when the Arctic will first  be "ice free".....I feel is misleading (to be kind).

Rather than use annualized figures for each decade.....I would take a look at (1) minimum ice AREA over the last 45 years (2)  minimum VOLUME of Arctic ice over the last 45+ years, and (3) the trend of various feedback effects over the past 45 years....with special emphasis on the last 5 - 10 years.

THOSE.....would be the things I would look at if I was concerned about when the Arctic would first be "ice free".

If someone who thinks it will be MOSTLY ice free by 2020 (almost virtually ice free)...is an "alarmist".....what adjectives should be used for someone who thinks that ice won't first "melt out" by 2030 or 2040?

Blind.....rose colored glasses.......hopelessly hopeful......employed by the fossil fuel industry?

FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3704 on: January 10, 2017, 09:07:01 PM »
Quote
what adjectives should be used for someone who thinks that ice won't first "melt out" by 2030 or 2040?

Blind.....rose colored glasses.......hopelessly hopeful......employed by the fossil fuel industry?

so true and i suggest the word "ignorant" and/or "naive" _ "gullible" _ "dewy-eyed" LOL

if it wouln't be so sad it would be funny  ;)


Paddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3705 on: January 11, 2017, 08:09:25 AM »
2020 isn't that far away (only three years), but neither is the middle of this spiral now.

I'll be a little more conservative, and say I'd expect a largely ice-free September day by 2025.
« Last Edit: January 11, 2017, 08:35:03 AM by Paddy »

Hefaistos

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3706 on: January 11, 2017, 11:08:45 AM »
Paddy, looks like we are sucked into a black hole.

Buddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3707 on: January 11, 2017, 01:09:58 PM »
Quote
2020 isn't that far away (only three years), but neither is the middle of this spiral now.


I agree....except it is 4 "melt seasons" away (Sept 2020....my bad, I should have been more specific). But yes....it is only 4 more melt seasons away (including this one.....which hasn't started yet.....most likely....hopefully). ???

And to get down to less than 1 million (which will be in and above the Canadian Archipelago).....I, unfortunately think that is "very doable" to get down to less than 1 million square K.  Especially if weather conditions line up appropriately in ANY or a couple of those years.

I was actually trying to make two points:

1)  We're getting down "to the nub"....the last few OR several years where there is any significant ice as of MID SEPTEMBER.

2)  Calling a group (or individuals) "alarmist" because they believe that MOST of the ice will be gone by 2020 is pretty RIDICULOUS in and of itself when someone looks at the actual numbers of VOLUME (thank you by the way for posting that) and AREA.   Anyone who would look at ANNUALIZED ice numbers is either (a) missing the point, or (b) intentionally missing the point (Trump would call something like that an "exaggeration".....most people would call it intentionally misleading or an outright lie).

So if those wacky...crazy...zealot's (like me ;D) are ultimately "wrong" and most ice isn't gone until 2025 or 2030.....what are the other folks who turn out to be wrong when most of the ice is gone in 2020 or 2025......and they said it wouldn't be gone until 2030, 2040 or later?

And lets not forget....that our "friends" on the dark side (Hi Joe Bastardi) were calling for ice to INCREASE over the past 5 years AND going forward.  What do we call them?  Idiot seems to fit....as well as lobbyist (in Joes case a paid "lobbyist"/promoter).

Indeed....I would call most of them LOBBYISTS.  Some of them paid....some of them not.  And some of them I would call a new breed of animal that was first propagated in the 1990's called a "FOXsheep".  It has a FOX head and a sheep body.  Also a very small cranium....and an inability for inquiry....and a blinding desire to follow without questioning.   


FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Mark Tough

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3708 on: January 12, 2017, 10:15:57 AM »
Nice Buddy - Plus One from me!

The good people on this forum debate time - they don't debate reality and get paid cash to do so... ;)


Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3710 on: January 12, 2017, 04:37:42 PM »
IJIS:

12,397,029 km2(January 11, 2017)and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Paddy

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3711 on: January 12, 2017, 04:59:14 PM »
Which adds up to an increase of nearly 71,000 square km in total in the past two days, at an average rate of about 35,400 square km a day.

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3712 on: January 13, 2017, 05:27:09 AM »
IJIS:

12,378,580 km2(January 12, 2017)and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3713 on: January 13, 2017, 05:30:19 AM »
Hang in there Espen!
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Sourabh

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3714 on: January 13, 2017, 05:50:51 AM »
Espen,

Is there something odd with IJIS graph values? Yesterday, they had values for 11th January (I think around 12.4). Today, they do not have that value.

Anyway, we are still behind the extent of 12.42 million km2 it was on 5th Jan. So, for seven days, the arctic ice is practically flat.

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3715 on: January 13, 2017, 07:15:26 AM »
Espen,

Is there something odd with IJIS graph values? Yesterday, they had values for 11th January (I think around 12.4). Today, they do not have that value.

Anyway, we are still behind the extent of 12.42 million km2 it was on 5th Jan. So, for seven days, the arctic ice is practically flat.

Todays' dataset does not have a value for 11th although yesterdays does. Who  knows what  tomorrow may bring?  Todays' value is more than 300K below the previous record for the day and 500K below 2016.

You can check the data yourself at:
https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/data/graph/plot_extent_n_v2.csv
« Last Edit: January 13, 2017, 07:22:35 AM by DavidR »
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

charles_oil

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3716 on: January 13, 2017, 10:52:12 AM »
The link on the ASIG page (and in DavidR's post) now just seems to go to a message:

ADS_NIPR ‏@ADS_NIPR  5h
5 hours ago
 
ADS services are under maintenance. It will be restarted by next Monday morning.  現在、ADS、メンテナンス中です。月曜日までに再起動予定です。

###
Rather than the plot spreadsheet - so I guess we will have to wait. 


magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3717 on: January 13, 2017, 06:37:51 PM »
Quote
2020 isn't that far away (only three years), but neither is the middle of this spiral now.


I agree....except it is 4 "melt seasons" away (Sept 2020....my bad, I should have been more specific). But yes....it is only 4 more melt seasons away (including this one.....which hasn't started yet.....most likely....hopefully). ???

And to get down to less than 1 million (which will be in and above the Canadian Archipelago).....I, unfortunately think that is "very doable" to get down to less than 1 million square K.  Especially if weather conditions line up appropriately in ANY or a couple of those years.

I was actually trying to make two points:

1)  We're getting down "to the nub"....the last few OR several years where there is any significant ice as of MID SEPTEMBER.

2)  Calling a group (or individuals) "alarmist" because they believe that MOST of the ice will be gone by 2020 is pretty RIDICULOUS in and of itself when someone looks at the actual numbers of VOLUME (thank you by the way for posting that) and AREA.   Anyone who would look at ANNUALIZED ice numbers is either (a) missing the point, or (b) intentionally missing the point (Trump would call something like that an "exaggeration".....most people would call it intentionally misleading or an outright lie).

So if those wacky...crazy...zealot's (like me ;D) are ultimately "wrong" and most ice isn't gone until 2025 or 2030.....what are the other folks who turn out to be wrong when most of the ice is gone in 2020 or 2025......and they said it wouldn't be gone until 2030, 2040 or later?

And lets not forget....that our "friends" on the dark side (Hi Joe Bastardi) were calling for ice to INCREASE over the past 5 years AND going forward.  What do we call them?  Idiot seems to fit....as well as lobbyist (in Joes case a paid "lobbyist"/promoter).

Indeed....I would call most of them LOBBYISTS.  Some of them paid....some of them not.  And some of them I would call a new breed of animal that was first propagated in the 1990's called a "FOXsheep".  It has a FOX head and a sheep body.  Also a very small cranium....and an inability for inquiry....and a blinding desire to follow without questioning.

huhuhhh.... nicely said LMAO & ROFL


Lord M Vader

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3719 on: January 14, 2017, 07:46:52 AM »
IJIS is back! And we are lower than yesterday... Waiting for Espen to update😊

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3720 on: January 14, 2017, 11:07:14 AM »
IJIS:

12,357,702 km2(January 13, 2017)down 20,372 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

Mark Tough

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3721 on: January 14, 2017, 12:24:59 PM »
Ok! I'll give a prediction

Under 12 mil on the 20th of Jan...

Perhaps not such a big call with a  "Storm-Ageddon Winter Artic eXtermination Event" (SAW-AXE) upon the way to rip up the ice, a tad more than a tad :o

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3722 on: January 14, 2017, 12:34:47 PM »
Bear in mind Bering might grow while the Atlantic side is crushed

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3723 on: January 14, 2017, 02:12:31 PM »
This may look a bit familiar to some of you. Since CT SIA is no longer with us, I reconfigured one of their popular area graphs for IJIS SIE:


magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3724 on: January 14, 2017, 04:32:19 PM »
This may look a bit familiar to some of you. Since CT SIA is no longer with us, I reconfigured one of their popular area graphs for IJIS SIE:



you are the man once more, thanks a lot and i DID miss that one a lot recently. we need more smilies like thumb-up and the likes :-) :) :) :) :) :) :)

Neven

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3725 on: January 14, 2017, 06:17:48 PM »
Nice retro stuff, Jim!  ;D
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3726 on: January 14, 2017, 06:34:05 PM »
IJIS Antarctic:

Again record low at 3,949,764 km2(January 13, 2017)
Have a ice day!

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3727 on: January 15, 2017, 11:09:41 AM »
IJIS:

12,387,965 km2(January 14, 2017)up 30,263 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DoomInTheUK

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3728 on: January 15, 2017, 11:12:34 AM »
Up 30, what is this - the freezing season?  ::)

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3729 on: January 15, 2017, 12:31:41 PM »
Up 30, what is this - the freezing season?  ::)

hehe... wait wait, the next few days will bring back the drops even, at least it's highly probably. the up of today is probably mostly due to the fact that bering finally caved and got ice in the passage.

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3730 on: January 15, 2017, 04:20:31 PM »
Nice retro stuff, Jim!  ;D

I know, I know. A bit retro. But I always liked the simplicity of this one, and since CT isn't using it for the time being, I thought, well, why not? ;-)

(FWIW, I have one for NSIDC extent, as well.)

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3731 on: January 16, 2017, 05:24:27 AM »
IJIS:

12,421,026 km2(January 15, 2017)up 33,061  km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3732 on: January 16, 2017, 05:36:10 AM »
IJIS:

12,421,026 km2(January 15, 2017)up 33,061  km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
But not quite highest for the year!
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Tigertown

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3733 on: January 16, 2017, 05:59:19 AM »
Hate to negative, but some of this is because of the wind pushing ice out of the Chukchi into the Bering Strait.
"....and the appointed time came for God to bring to ruin those ruining the earth." Revelation 11:18.

Darvince

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3734 on: January 16, 2017, 11:05:54 AM »
But that's the only way that ice is going to get into the Bering Sea this year...

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3735 on: January 17, 2017, 05:34:05 AM »
IJIS:

12,496,927 km2(January 16, 2017)up 75,901 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

« Last Edit: January 17, 2017, 08:53:48 PM by Espen »
Have a ice day!

Shared Humanity

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3736 on: January 18, 2017, 02:41:59 AM »
Break 12.5 square km tomorrow?

Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3737 on: January 18, 2017, 05:22:48 AM »
IJIS:

12,603,241 km2(January 17, 2017)up 106,314 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3738 on: January 18, 2017, 05:24:25 AM »
We've seen this cycle of the roller coaster before... A last hurrah before the storms ?

oren

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3739 on: January 18, 2017, 07:13:22 AM »
It is the Bering expanding as expected, a side effect of the storm as far as I can tell

Gray-Wolf

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3740 on: January 18, 2017, 11:13:39 AM »
We've seen this cycle of the roller coaster before... A last hurrah before the storms ?

I don't know DrT? we are yet to see if a shattered Atlantic side of the pack will expand into open water which would surely give us a spike in area/extent? We know it would be a bad thing for the pack but will we see other try and make the stats tell another tale?
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Espen

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3741 on: January 19, 2017, 05:30:06 AM »
IJIS:

12,646,417 km2(January 18, 2017)up 43,176 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.
Have a ice day!

DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3742 on: January 19, 2017, 05:37:41 AM »
IJIS:

12,646,417 km2(January 18, 2017)up 43,176 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

I suspect the second lowest is 2005? I might be colorblind...

pileus

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3743 on: January 19, 2017, 05:52:17 AM »
IJIS:

12,646,417 km2(January 18, 2017)up 43,176 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

I suspect the second lowest is 2005? I might be colorblind...

This has all you need:

https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop.ver1/data/graph/plot_extent_n_v2.csv

My anomalous trichromacy makes most 5+ data point trend charts meaningless


DavidR

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3744 on: January 19, 2017, 05:54:10 AM »
IJIS:

12,646,417 km2(January 18, 2017)up 43,176 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

I suspect the second lowest is 2005? I might be colorblind...
No its 2006.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

budmantis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3745 on: January 19, 2017, 05:57:20 AM »
IJIS:

12,646,417 km2(January 18, 2017)up 43,176 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

I suspect the second lowest is 2005? I might be colorblind...

I could be wrong, but I think its 2006. Depending on the next few days, this year could fall to second place, but it probably wont last.

DrTskoul

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3746 on: January 19, 2017, 06:14:06 AM »
Thanks!

 Was too lazy to open a data sheet.... ::)

Jim Pettit

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3747 on: January 19, 2017, 01:05:45 PM »
Of course, even if 2016 briefly dips below 2006 where daily extent is concerned--and 2006 did indeed pretty much flatline for the last two weeks of January before climbing again, so that's possible--2016 already has a huge lead so far as month-to-date/year-to-date average. On the following graph, 2006, at just 10k below the average, would show up as a very thin blue rectangle beneath the baseline:


magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3748 on: January 19, 2017, 06:17:26 PM »
IJIS:

12,646,417 km2(January 18, 2017)up 43,176 km2 from previous and lowest measured for the date.

I suspect the second lowest is 2005? I might be colorblind...

2006 it is but yes, one has to look close to be sure while often the first impression is right :-)

magnamentis

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Re: IJIS
« Reply #3749 on: January 19, 2017, 06:57:52 PM »
BTW i don't worry or better, look forward too confidently for 2016 and 2006 to meet or intersect any time soon.

tomorrow's graphs will show loss for area and at least a stall for extent. i recommend in such times to study the following graph first before jumping to conclusions, it's 1 day ahead of most if not all others, hence it's the most actual graph with the most recent data from UH.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-area-all-cmpare.png?attredirects=0&d=1
RED AREA LINE IS MOST RELEVANT TO COMPARE
AXA & NSIDC are one day behind ( click to enlarge image to see the time line better )

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/grf/amsr2-extent-all-cmpare.png?attredirects=0&d=1
BLACK EXTENT LINE IS MOST RELEVANT TO COMPARE
JAXA & NSIDC are one day behind ( click to enlarge image to see the time line better )
« Last Edit: January 19, 2017, 07:15:38 PM by magnamentis »