The Dems blow the election again

[JimD]

Let's try a different type of political topic here. There is tons of stuff which is anti-Trump and anti-Repug here (some for good reason and some because many got butt hurt in 2016).  But that does not mean there is balance here and if you don't look at what is happening systemically then you will miss key factors which can be the deciding ones.

This topic is ONLY for posts which show or demonstrate how the Dems are in the process of, once again, fouling up their chances to win. Or for posts which show that the Repugs are mitigating Dem advantages and tightening the races. It will balance all the other political topics.

Back in the Jan-Nov 2016 span me, and a lot of smart people who know far more about this than I do, harped constantly on the Clinton/Democratic campaign strategy and how it was discounting a really serious upwelling of sentiment among a group of voters which was being discounted (the deplorables) or who's interests were not being addressed.  And along comes the pied piper who talks the talk (which is all you can do during a campaign), dog whistles a lot, understands how to inflame baser instincts, executes a plan, and, of course, uses every available lever to win.  And does win.

I see a great many parallels at this time to the state of the Democratic Party during the 2016 primary and general election campaigns.  And not in a good way if one wants to see the Republicans lose total control of Congress this fall.  In that the House is in play without a doubt and the Senate is not a zero probability (should the Dems run a very competent campaign - yes I know).

At this time among those who want the above change there seems to be a consensus that the roll over of the House is a done deal. What with a number of special elections going against the Repugs, strong enthusiasm in the proletariat for change, very large numbers of primary challengers in the Dem races (a mixed blessing perhaps), a good amount of money coming in, endless disturbances coming from the White House on a daily basis, various investigations going on, etc. And that all of the above put the Senate in play.

But is this story a fairy tale, a tragedy, a farce, or the real deal?

I see a very significant chance at this point that the Dems are going to repeat the last election and end up with a result in Nov which is well below what could be expected if they had learned any lessons from 2016.  Which I can say with confidence - they learned nothing. I don't think they will win the senate and I think that they may be able to once again snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and fall on their face in the House.

Off the top of my head I will list below some of the subject areas or topics which I can see as trouble areas for them.  I am sure there are a couple of dozen more and feel free to toss them into the mix. Then we can see how the tides move these issues over the next few months.

1.  Machine control of the Democratic party by those who lost in 2016. This is a disaster.  The Clinton machine is still in control and grinding the Progressives and anyone who is a real liberal into the mud.

2.  The Machine is still totally wedded to Wall Street and Wall Street owes Trump like you can't imagine. They will deliver for the Repugs.

3.  The big influx of money from the little guys which came into the 2016 Dem primaries was for the Progressives and will fade away as the Machine kills off all the Progressive candidates in the primaries it can.  Thus the money they think they are going to get will not be as much when they end up with too many Machine candidates. They are actively trying to force candidates out of the races already as they don't want to spend their money in primary fights.  But they will have too and then afterwards there will be a lot less money.  Example:
https://www.vox.com/2018/4/26/17285576/steny-hoyer-levi-tillemann-the-intercept-colorado-jason-crow

4.  Guns.  This issue will always hurt the Dems in the key states which tripped the election in 2016.  It will also be used to inflame the Repug base in order to gt them out to vote.

5.  Once again a large number of Progressives are going to be very angry at how the Machine treats them and will end up not voting for the Machine candidates.

6.  Quite a number of the Dem candidates running in the Red states (like Sinema in AZ) are what are called Blue Dog democrats and they are more conservative than the average Machine candidate much less a Progressive one.  Those of these who win will not deliver on many of the change ideas floating around in Dem party politics so a narrow win of the House will not deliver the voting majority that might be assumed from raw numbers.

7. The amount of money on the Repug side of the ledger is going to explode during the summer as the billionaires who saw their money from 2016 having been well spent are going to double down to maintain their success.  And the tax cut, of course, paid for this largess. Fund raising at the NRA has exploded and that money will be targeted carefully.  There will be many calls going out to the base for money mentioning the end of the world as we know it if the Reugs lose and that will have results.

8. Vicious negative advertising will tend as always to narrow the polling differences. Aside from that the polling spread has closed by about 50% already.

9.  The economy as always will be the number 1 most important factor and at this time there is no reason to think that it will not strongly favor the Repugs.

10.  The evangelical network TBN has more local stations than FOX, CBS, ABC or NBC and it is 100% behind Trump and the Repugs.  Its viewership is over 100 million.  Add in the FOX effect and this is a substantial impact on the Repug base who do not listen to any other networks.

11. National security issues or concerns will always favor the hawkish candidate and the Repug party.  One reason Clinton was so hawkish was to tap into the strong leader mystique.  The Repugs own this factor right now.

12.  Trump is poised to be able to deliver on the National Security front between what happens with NK and Iran.  He may fall on his face of course, but he may also end up with something which can be sold very well.  There is only upside here for the Repugs as if they get new agreements in place with either country it will look to the public that being Trump like really works.  Conversely if we end up in some kind of military action before Nov that always draws voters towards the party in power as that is the patriotic response.

13.  Identity politics Dem style are divisive across the whole population of course, but they are also a problem in the Dem party itself.  This will be a drag on potential results. And identity political issues will be used to help inflame the Repug base as always.

14.  A Black Swan is always waiting in the wings for either side as well.

Well that is a start I guess.  I see information almost every day which indicates this election is far from a done deal and that the Dems are still totally ignoring those who got Trump elected and their own failings.  Complacency is lethal in politics.

Enjoy 

[sidd]

We have been kicking some of this around in the thread entitled

" The problem of Corporate Democrats and how to kick them out"

sidd

[oren]

As much as I dislike political threads on this forum, as they tend to immediately degenerate into monologues rather than dialogue, at least this one is clearly presented to begin with.
Let me add my two worthless cents, regarding the various investigations going on - based on the experience in Israel, the more investigations there are against the right-wing leader, the more the right-wing base rallies on the perception that the "system" is trying to remove their leader from power. Those same investigations give a false sense of certainty to the left-wingers that this time we are getting rid of said leader. This is regardless of the gory details coming out of these investigations.

[TerryM]

oren
I concur, but add that it's not only the right that rally round their much maligned leaders. As the  attacks against Bill Clinton increased in intensity, Bill's polling numbers rose, much to the befuddlement of those that wished him harm.
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

This topic is ONLY for posts which show or demonstrate how the Dems are in the process of, once again, fouling up their chances to win. Or for posts which show that the Repugs are mitigating Dem advantages and tightening the races. It will balance all the other political topics.

Enjoy 

The rules for your thread gives the impression that your arguments are so weak that they cannot stand the strain of debate.

[JimD]

ASLR

No.  The other threads are chock full of all that stuff so there is no reason to repeat it here.  This thread is to detail that there is a whole lot of other stuff going on that will have a heavy impact on what happens in Nov.  Your reaction shows a strong bias and demonstrates the need for balance.  That being the point of the topic.

Remember here that I am well to the left of the mainstream Dems like Clinton and the rest of the Machine.  I am a real honest to god socialist.  I hold both Trump and Clinton in utter contempt and never considered voting for either one of them.  That being said I find a lot more in common with people like you than I do any like them. 

The Repugs however have a history of planning and executing their plans competently and this pays for them.  The Dems on the other hand are chaotic, undisciplined, complacent, lack strategy, and seem to find new ways to lose all the time.  I see them cruising along once again following the same path which led them to this place we are today.  In my own little way I am trying top wake them and their supporters up to this very bad tendency so just maybe they can work on fixing it.

And who knows, maybe someday they will get their policies right once again and I can find a path to supporting them as I once did.  But not until they earn it.

[JimD]

Some further evidence.

Democrats Prepare to Pimp Their Own Left For 2018 and 2020.

Every two years, Democrats need a Big Black Vote, along with impressive turnouts of Latino and Latina voters, the elderly, students and young people to maintain their status as a national party. They need this turnout of their base constituencies to elect governors, members of Congress and state legislators, senators and of course the president.

So while the commanding heights of the Democratic party remain securely in the hands of the representatives of capital, empire and the deep state, Democrats must allow self-identified leftists a certain amount of room to campaign for single payer health care or something that sounds a little like it, to oppose some aspects of austerity and privatization, to champion the rights of women and LBGTQ people, or in the case of the so-called “New Poor Peoples Campaign ”, to mobilize Democratic party activists by conducting nonviolent direct action around the proposition that Republican policies, and perhaps Republican voters are morally deficient, much like Hillary’s “deplorables.”....

Despite whatever grassroots Democrat activists do, their party’s top shot callers remain the oligarchs of finance capital, big real estate, Big Ag, Big Pharma, the entertainment industry, military contractors and the deep state. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the party’s official receptacle and distribution engine for corporate contributions is funding more than 50 congressional candidates who are former military intelligence, CIA, State Department and Homeland Security operatives.

These are the people that run the Democratic party, not DSA or grassroots activists flying the Black Lives Matter flag. Democratic party pimps only need the grassroots types to get the vote out, after which a few will be rewarded and the rest chased off to the margins till next election cycle like abused spouses looking for a shelter spot.....

https://blackagendareport.com/democrats-prepare-pimp-left-again-2018-and-2020

[JimD]

And this.

Tweet
In the current cycle, big health insurers have quietly donated more than $150,000 to Democrats opposed to Medicare for All legislation.

One of the internal battles raging within the Democratic Party is whether or not the party should embrace the Medicare for All bill authored by Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vermont). Big-name Democrats with possible presidential ambitions like Senators Cory Booker (D-New Jersey), Kirsten Gillibrand (D-New York), Kamala Harris (D-California), and Elizabeth Warren (D-Massachusetts) have co-sponsored the bill, but notably, 11 Senate Democrats up for re-election this year have not....

...Health insurers likely see Medicare for All threatening their bottom line in the future, and are spending large sums to keep politicians who are favorable to the private health insurance model. According to federal campaign finance records, the four leading private health insurance providers — Aetna, Anthem, Cigna, and UnitedHealth — have spent $158,000 in the 2017-2018 campaign cycle on Democrats opposed to single-payer healthcare. Here are their names, ordered by who received the most to who received the least....

https://gritpost.com/health-insurers-medicare-for-all/

[Daniel B.]

This topic is ONLY for posts which show or demonstrate how the Dems are in the process of, once again, fouling up their chances to win. Or for posts which show that the Repugs are mitigating Dem advantages and tightening the races. It will balance all the other political topics.

Enjoy 

The rules for your thread gives the impression that your arguments are so weak that they cannot stand the strain of debate.

For whatever reason (it could be Dems fouling up or other ideological issues), since 1976 the party in the Whit House has lost an average of 21 seats in the midterms.  That would give the GOP a precarious 5-seat advantage.  If you base the analysis on the number of seats occupied (i.e. the more seats, the more losses), then the GOP would lose 26 seats, and flip to a 5-seat Dem advantage.  Of course, if you factor in the that the Dems have lost an average of 2 seats per election since Nixon was in office (the large Dem foul up factor), then their outlook becomes quite bleak.  In summary, I have no clue.

[TerryM]

According to FiveThirtyEight, 9 of the past 10 presidents had polling numbers as bad as those that Trump has today.
Only JFK's numbers were better throughout his years in office.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/voters/

It's not a given that a Democratic Knight in Shining Armour will arise from the Slime of Foggy Bottom and slay the Orange Jester that has stolen the Scepter from our Rightful Queen.

Brave Knights may attempt to mount their mighty steeds only to find that the stirrups were repossessed when they couldn't promise a free college education, their lance had been lost when Medicare for All was banned from the lists, and their sword was broken when they wouldn't fight for a living wage.

They'd rise briefly to their knees, wail plaintively that their weapons had been sold to the highest bidder, then fall prostrate on the broken hilt of their sword, secure in the knowledge that their nests were now well feathered.

Well feathered nests afloat on the smoke still rising from the smoldering pyre of a lost election seems an oxymoron, but winning the battle is no longer the goal. Losing while not offending is now the objective.

Pick up a few Gerrymandered seats. Fight hard, or at least appear to fight hard, not for any ideological reason, fight simply for the right to represent your side to TPTB.
Throw a little mud, throw a little more, but be sure that the bosses don't get splattered. You might win, damn unlikely when you've nothing to offer other than the fact that you aren't the one you've been throwing mud at, but you might win.

If you win it's a cushy job, probably for the rest of your life. If you lose it's the corporate life for you - as long as you haven't done anything to annoy those who are really in charge.
A few years behind a desk or as a consultant, then maybe another grab for the brass ring.
Who will pay your way this time?
Terry

[wili]

Nicely done, Terry! You should publish it! Is there a comic book version? We may be only able to think through these times with some such conjunction of the mythic and the satirical!

[sidd]

Re: "We may be only able to think through these times with some such conjunction of the mythic and the satirical!"

"I therefore claim to show, not how men think in myths, but how myths operate in men's minds without their being aware of the fact." -- Claude Levi-Strauss

sidd

[JimD]

Very nice sidd!

Another interesting bit on how the machine is in sync. This is a follow on to item 3 in post #1

The recording features House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer, the second-highest ranking Democrat in the House of Representatives, informing primary challenger Levi Tillemann that if he runs, he will be running against not just the chosen establishment candidate Jason Crow, but against Hoyer and the full might of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) as well.

“Which means effectively, Congressman Hoyer,” Tillemann is heard saying toward the end of the recording, “I’m running a campaign against Crow, and against you, and against the DCCC, because you guys are on Crow’s side.”

“Yeah,” replied Hoyer. “You know, frankly, that happens in life all the time.”

And Pelosi's response??

"I don’t know that a person can tape a person without the person’s consent and then release it to the press,” Pelosi told reporters today. “In terms of candidates and campaigns I don’t see anything inappropriate in what Mr. Hoyer was engaged in — a conversation about the realities of life in the race as to who can make the general election.”

That’s right, instead of blaming this evidence on Russian hackers, Democratic Party leadership has opted to try a brand new approach: they’re openly admitting to knowingly rigging their primaries against progressive candidates and saying that it’s the right thing to do. Because that’s how you win general elections.

Yup.  That will surely help get the actual leftists and the Progressives to the polls in the general election.  Not. Screw these people.

https://caitlinjohnstone.com/2018/04/27/pelosi-i-dont-see-anything-inappropriate-in-rigging-primaries/

[JimD]

Hmm this is interesting.

APRIL 27, 2018
How Clintonites Are Manufacturing Faux Progressive Congressional Campaigns

This could perhaps count as an example of actual real reporting. Rare in today's world.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/04/27/how-clintonites-are-manufacturing-faux-progressive-congressional-campaigns/

[Daniel B.]

Hmm this is interesting.

APRIL 27, 2018
How Clintonites Are Manufacturing Faux Progressive Congressional Campaigns

This could perhaps count as an example of actual real reporting. Rare in today's world.

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/04/27/how-clintonites-are-manufacturing-faux-progressive-congressional-campaigns/

Not too surprising, as Clinton tried to pass herself off as a progressive candidate.  Real progressives saw through her disguise.

[JimD]

There is a genre of commentary from liberal pundits that persistently appears like crab grass, and it involves scolding progressive or left-wing voters for their activism around elections. Jonathan Alter, a columnist for The Daily Beast and an MSNBC analyst, is the latest pundit to pen a nauseating lecture.

Ahead of the 2018 midterm elections, even though the “odds” favor flipping the House of Representatives, Alter expresses concern about Democrats who are already banking on a victory.

Alter is correct to worry. After all, Democrats lost over 1,000 seats at the federal and state level while Barack Obama was president. But what Alter proposes to stave off another disappointing election cycle is rather feebleminded.

“To flip the House, Democrats and other concerned Americans will have to dig deep in their pockets, subordinate their particular concerns to the cause of winning, and do what it takes to protect democracy,” Alter proclaims.

In other words, in order to “protect democracy,” there must be less democracy in the Democratic Party.....

https://shadowproof.com/2018/04/25/daily-beasts-jonathan-alter-democrats-need-less-democracy-win-2018-midterm-elections/

[Pmt111500]

Where is the button to mark threads permanently read? I'm probably starting to  use Extensive messaging to political threads by users as a criterion to ignore, no matter what they do elsewhere. Ok, have a Clinton hate-group then.

[JimD]

Re: Item 12 from post #1

North Korea.  This issue is gaining steam and clearly has the potential to have a very positive result in both national security terms and political terms(for the Republicans in the US). And for all countries involved.

If meaningful progress can be made (no final solution as that is asking way too much still - but good progress) then everyone wins. Partisan politics aside.

We can be pretty certain that political interests and considerations regarding the Nov elections will play a large role in what Trump does in the coming meetings.

I note one of his most consistent Republican critics said this today:

Lindsey Graham: If Korean War Ends, Trump Deserves Nobel Prize

A bit hyperbole but any progress will be a giant benefit for the Republicans in Nov.

And on the international scene we have statements like this:

Congratulated for an apparent breakthrough in relations between South Korea and North Korea, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said, "It's President Trump who should receive the Nobel Prize."

[Daniel B.]

Re: Item 12 from post #1

North Korea.  This issue is gaining steam and clearly has the potential to have a very positive result in both national security terms and political terms(for the Republicans in the US). And for all countries involved.

If meaningful progress can be made (no final solution as that is asking way too much still - but good progress) then everyone wins. Partisan politics aside.

We can be pretty certain that political interests and considerations regarding the Nov elections will play a large role in what Trump does in the coming meetings.

I note one of his most consistent Republican critics said this today:

Lindsey Graham: If Korean War Ends, Trump Deserves Nobel Prize

A bit hyperbole but any progress will be a giant benefit for the Republicans in Nov.

And on the international scene we have statements like this:

Congratulated for an apparent breakthrough in relations between South Korea and North Korea, South Korean President Moon Jae-in said, "It's President Trump who should receive the Nobel Prize."

FWIW, the polling data shows that the Dems had a 13 pt. advantage back in December, but that has dwindled to 5 recently.  Anything positive for the Republicans, the current administration, or the country in general, could erode that edge even further.  Without a solid platform (anti-Trump just does not cut it), the party may see the House as still outside their grasp.

[JimD]

Daniel

Thus the exact point of this topic.  It ain't over till it's over as they say.  Complacency is a lethal condition in politics. Looking back never works.

[JimD]

A good description of why the NK thing is so bit a deal.

https://www.salon.com/2018/04/29/history-is-being-made-on-the-korean-peninsula-but-what-kind-and-who-will-make-it/

[JimD]

The Economy - Number 9 from post #1.

If you are losing the millenials then your demographic trends, which the Dems are assuming all go their way, disappear and you are toast.  There better be a counter to this or there is real trouble.

MANCHESTER, N.H. (Reuters) - Enthusiasm for the Democratic Party is waning among millennials as its candidates head into the crucial midterm congressional elections, according to the Reuters/Ipsos national opinion poll.

The online survey of more than 16,000 registered voters ages 18 to 34 shows their support for Democrats over Republicans for Congress slipped by about 9 percentage points over the past two years, to 46 percent overall. And they increasingly say the Republican Party is a better steward of the economy.

Although nearly two of three young voters polled said they do not like Republican President Donald Trump, their distaste for him does not necessarily extend to all Republicans or translate directly into votes for Democratic congressional candidates....

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-millennials/exclusive-democrats-lose-ground-with-millennials-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKBN1I10YH

The state of the economy is always the single most important factor when folks walk into the voting booth.

[TerryM]

Korea could be HUGE, but just combining recent poll numbers with the effects of Gerrymandering could leave democrats scratching their heads and asking what happened again.
Unless the vaunted democratic wave turns into a tsunami at the state level, the Republicans will be in charge when the 2020 census is taken and a new round of redistricting takes place.
After that, good luck in controlling anything at the federal level until 2032.


We need state houses and governorships, and we need them big.
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

With a hat tip to TerryM & Daniel B., it can be risky business (i.e. it can be a risky strategy for improving America) waiting for the (corporate) Demos to blow the election again:


: TerryM  Today at 07:16:57 PM

Is waiting for the other side to implode a strategy?


If they do, we can all hold hands round a campfire and sing Kumbaya. In the meantime doesn't it make sense to nominate some candidates that can win, even if they face strong opposition?


I've followed professional boxing all of my life. Every now and then the better boxer will overlook an opponent, not train as hard as he should, and he'll end up face down on the mat.


The subject here is the GOP losing ground for the coming midterm. I don't believe that to be what the polls are showing us, and I particularly object to it being heralded as a strategy going forward.


We can win if we're willing to put in the work. (and a slew of progressive candidates)
Terry


edit
The Tail Gunner is rolling in his grave with laughter. 60 some years later and the Democrats have taken up the cause that he and Roy Cohen held so dear.




I wholeheartedly agree.  People are much more likely to gather around a candidate that they favor.  A campaign strategy that focuses solely on voting against someone, tends to create apathy, not enthusiasm.

[JimD]

This is a big deal

Iran

https://www.cnn.com/2018/04/30/middleeast/netanyahu-iran-nuclear-program/index.html

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says Israel has evidence Iranian officials were "brazenly lying" when they said Iran wasn't pursuing nuclear weapons and that the Islamic republic is keeping an "atomic archive" at a secret compound.

"Tonight, I'm here to tell you one thing: Iran lied -- big time," Netanyahu said late Monday during an address from the Israel Ministry of Defense in Tel Aviv.

Calling it one of the greatest achievements in the history of Israeli intelligence, Netayahu displayed what he said were files that demonstrate Iran planned to continue pursuing a nuclear weapons program despite the 2015 deal it brokered with the international community....

Well this is big news.  Now being former US intel I can say with certainty that this needs to be taken with a grain of salt from the actual 'is it real' standpoint.  Maybe and maybe not.

But that does not matter a whit in this case as there will be no way to prove it a fake and Trump and company are going to take the hand-off and run for the goal line. This is the way it is done folks.  I would bet pretty strongly that the agreement is blown up and the Iranians will have to renegotiate or they will face a complete reconstitution of strong sanctions. 

There is absolutely no way this will not help the Repugs in the polls and in Nov.

[Pmt111500]

JimD added.

[AbruptSLR]

This is a big deal
...
There is absolutely no way this will not help the Repugs in the polls and in Nov.

While it is not clear to me why Netanyahu's claims about Iranian intensions are an example to Democrats blowing the election again, I do not doubt that Netanyahu and Trump are playing tag-team on this issue and certainly Trump will use Netanyahu's statements to 'blow up' the Iran deal on May 12th.  Such any action by the Trump Administration may well further isolate the USA from its European allies, and in the worst-case might led to war in the Middle East.

Title: "Netanyahu claims Iran lied about its nuclear ambitions"

https://www.axios.com/netanyahu-claims-iran-lied-about-its-nuclear-ambitions-e0ee84cb-e73a-468f-b3ea-0c5144b097d3.html

Extract: "Axios contributor Barak Ravid tweets, the "information is not new and especially interesting. ... It won't change the position of the European powers."

Much of Netanyahu's presentation was in English, which indicates the target audience may have been the U.S. As Axios' Jonathan Swan notes, the speech may help build the public case for Trump to blow up the Iran deal on May 12 by reimposing sanctions on Iran’s oil exports and central bank. Netanyahu concluded the presentation by saying of Trump, "I’m sure he’ll do the right thing.
…
One key Powerpoint slide in the presentation simply read, "IRAN LIED." "

[JimD]

With a hat tip to TerryM & Daniel B., it can be risky business (i.e. it can be a risky strategy for improving America) waiting for the (corporate) Demos to blow the election again:


: TerryM  Today at 07:16:57 PM

Is waiting for the other side to implode a strategy? (snip)

Thus you reiterate my point of this topic.

The 'trends' are not in favor of the Dems in Nov.

Ever since the last election the Dems have been coasting on the huge surge of animosity to Trump (look at the 5000 posts here on the blog about that) and bad poll numbers for Trump and the Repugs.  Yup there were a handful of special elections that went the Dems way but the key point I am making here is this:

Momentum from Nov 16 is fading away and the Dems have no other strategy in place.  Trumps poll numbers are getting better where it counts 'for him' (see below).  What is going on with NK and now today, Iran, is huge and very bad for the Dems.  The damn refugee caravan that Trump has been bitching about just arrived at the border. This really plays into his hands as literally several bus loads of them getting there was on TV. Another windfall for the Repugs.

Poll numbers are closing towards even.  This is catastrophic.  Look at this data from my link today:

This is data for millennials from 18-34

Two years ago, young white people favored Democrats over Republicans for Congress by a margin of 47 to 33 percent; that gap vanished by this year, with 39 percent supporting each party.

The shift was especially dramatic among young white men, who two years ago favored Democrats but now say they favor Republicans over Democrats by a margin of 46 to 37 percent, the Reuters/Ipsos poll showed....

...The shift away from Democrats was more pronounced among white millennials - who accounted for two-thirds of all votes cast in that age group in 2016....

White millennials are 55% of the demographic but account for 66% of those who vote!!!!

Republican approval of Trump is around 80% from a week ago and the NK/Iran/Immigrant buses will push that higher.  Folks in the middle will be pulled to the right some and especially if the NK/Iran issues go the way they are looking likely.

Boom!!! This is devastating data.  If the Dems don't reverse this trend (and with the economy, NK/Iran stuff it will be crushingly hard) then the projection has to go towards an even contest in Nov and that is the same as a Dem defeat.

The Dem 'assumptions' look pretty nice but the 'trends' are not in their favor.  It is a long time until Nov and this is hardly over, but they need to quit punching their potential allies who are leftists and progressives or they are going to be eating dirt the day after the election.

[JimD]

...

While it is not clear to me why Netanyahu's claims about Iranian intensions are an example to Democrats blowing the election again, I do not doubt that Netanyahu and Trump are playing tag-team on this issue and certainly Trump will use Netanyahu's statements to 'blow up' the Iran deal on May 12th.  Such any action by the Trump Administration may well further isolate the USA from its European allies, and in the worst-case might led to war in the Middle East.

...

My bold.

ASLR

This is an example of the Repugs executing a strategy designed to help them 'win'.  No it is not an example of the Dems doing anything.  But it highlights what they are 'not' doing.  And that is creating a viable strategy and then executing it in a disciplined manner.  It matters not in the US election what the countries in Europe think about what Israel just did as nobody here cares what the Europeans think (no offense intended).  That is just a fact.  But this will 'sell' like crazy to the US public and that is what the strategy intends.

The Dems have historically been hopeless at the kind of political intrigue we are seeing here (Machiavelli would be proud of the Repugs) and that is what I am getting at.  They need to get tough and professional very quickly or they are going to get hurt.

[AbruptSLR]

Poll numbers are closing towards even.  This is catastrophic.

Per Fivethirtyeight's current generic ballot polls shows the Democrats with a 46.8% to 38.6% lead over the GOP in the race for Congress.  I would not say that that indicates that the GOP is closing on the Dems.

Title: "Are Democrats/Republicans Winning The Race For Congress?"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

[TerryM]

Not good on so many levels.


Israel has not been getting good press recently & I doubt that the EU is keen to join in yet another round of sanctions.
Iran got it's $Billions back, is (I believe) selling her oil in Rubles and Yuan, and may want some pay back for the strike on her forces in Syria.
Trump will act precipitously no doubt, and it may cost a little more to fill the gas guzzler next week.
Assad needed his S-300s yesterday, but after last night he may get them tomorrow.


When does Netanyahu's trial start and when will it be over.
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

When does Netanyahu's trial start and when will it be over.

Who knows whether Netanyahu will even be in office in September:

Title: "Analysis: What would Netanyahu’s Case 1000 trial look like?

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Benjamin-Netanyahu/What-would-Netanyahus-Case-1000-trial-look-like-542690

Extract: "Netanyahu has already been prime minister, combining his two stints, for over 12 years, and he will break David Ben-Gurion’s record as the longest-serving premier in September – if he’s still in office."

[JimD]

Off topic but a very interesting bit of data.  It turns out my vote (or lack thereof) did win the electoral college. I have been robbed.

[Pmt111500]

Off topic but a very interesting bit of data.  It turns out my vote (or lack thereof) did win the electoral college. I have been robbed.

 Uninteresting.tl Dr. Nothing to see here move on.

[TerryM]

When does Netanyahu's trial start and when will it be over.

Who knows whether Netanyahu will even be in office in September:

Title: "Analysis: What would Netanyahu’s Case 1000 trial look like?

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Benjamin-Netanyahu/What-would-Netanyahus-Case-1000-trial-look-like-542690

Extract: "Netanyahu has already been prime minister, combining his two stints, for over 12 years, and he will break David Ben-Gurion’s record as the longest-serving premier in September – if he’s still in office."

Thanks!
I had thought that the trial was definitely on.
What a shame.
Terry

[Daniel B.]

Poll numbers are closing towards even.  This is catastrophic.

Per Fivethirtyeight's current generic ballot polls shows the Democrats with a 46.8% to 38.6% lead over the GOP in the race for Congress.  I would not say that that indicates that the GOP is closing on the Dems.

Title: "Are Democrats/Republicans Winning The Race For Congress?"

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

Considering that the lead was 50.1% to 36.8% back in December, I would say that is closing.  In four months, the lead decreased from 13.3% to 8.2% (according to 538).  If that trend were to continue to the midterms...

[oren]

Regarding Netanyahu, laying hands on the Iranian archive is obviously a great intelligence achievement, but the presentation did not reveal new stuff or a "smoking gun" regarding Iran's keeping or not keeping the terms of the 2015 nuclear deal. Of course, if Trump wants to use it as an excuse to break the deal, the presentation will help him do so. As JimD writes, Republicans (and Netanyahu) have Machiavellian strategies in place and are executing on them, while the opposing side is weak, disorganized and lacks strategy, I think this is true in the US as well as in Israel.
BTW, making the speech on prime time Israeli television hints strongly at trying to sway/distract local voters ahead of Netanyahu's varied and growing corruption charges actually becoming trials.

[Pmt111500]

Regarding Netanyahu, laying hands

Tl, dr, "Hillary would've been worse than Drumpf."

[TerryM]

Regarding Netanyahu, laying hands

Tl, dr, "Hillary would've been worse than Drumpf."

Ramen!


Over a year, and still no hot war with Russia. Trump's an ass, but at least he's an ineffective one.
Terry

[Jim Pettit]

Over a year, and still no hot war with Russia. Trump's an ass, but at least he's an ineffective one.

So that's the sole criterion for concluding that Trump is "better" than Clinton would have been? That the US isn't yet engaged in combat with Russia? And that a Clinton administration would already be?

Incredible. And it will doubtless be great comfort once Trump and the GOP have dragged the US into full-on authoritarianism, and minorities (ethnic, sexual, and other) are sent to government re-education camps, and North Korea rebuilds its nuclear capabilities in a year or two and no longer has to pretend to kowtow to South Korea in order to curry favor with anyone, and John Bolton's mustache glows from the reflected blasts of the Middle East mushroom clouds he, Trump, and Netanyahu are hoping to see PDQ.

Seriously: there is no honest objective comparison--and by honest I mean untainted by Russian-driven hatred for Hillary--in which Trump would be "better" than Clinton. (Okay, golf. He may be a better golfer than her; he's sure as hell had a lot more practice.)

[AbruptSLR]

Considering that the lead was 50.1% to 36.8% back in December, I would say that is closing.  In four months, the lead decreased from 13.3% to 8.2% (according to 538).  If that trend were to continue to the midterms...

I submit that only in a poser's fantasy world are the blue and red lines in the attached plot converging.

[Daniel B.]

In both the 538 and realclearpolitics polling, the advantage has waned.  Check out the numbers:

Apr., 2017:  Dems +5.8
May, 17:  +6.1
June, 17:  + 6.8
July, 17:   + 9.0
Aug., 17:  + 8.9
Sept., 17: + 8.2
Oct., 17:  +10.5
Nov., 17:  + 9.6
Dec., 17: +13.0
Jan., 18:  +11.2
Feb., 18:  + 8.0
Mar., 18:  + 6.8
Apr., 18:  + 5.5

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

The 538 graph looks quite similar.  While the Dems advantage is about the same as a year ago, it swelled by the end of the year, but has since contracted.  The increased polling numbers, along with some special election victories, fueled hope for a midterm slaughter.  Since then, the optimism has waned, and the prospects of a House takeover are not as bright, and a Senate takeover looks bleak.  Back in November, 2016, 538 predicted a Clinton victory by 70 electoral votes and a Democratic takeover of the Senate. 

[JimD]

ASLR

Snapshots in time and having so many sources (some with agendas, some less than competent, and some trying hard to get the data right) leaves at all times a murky picture.

That being said.  Are you actually serious in that you do 'not' see that the situation is deteriorating for the Dems?  The trends seem pretty clear.

Pointing this out is no different than pointing out that some set of data indicates a catastrophe may be coming (like data on ice in the antarctic for instance). One has an option of using the data to make a plan to change the outcome. If there is time.  Is there still time?  Maybe, maybe not. It depends on the actions of both sides.  But if one side does basically nothing and the other tries hard? Well then ...shit often happens.

[TerryM]

Over a year, and still no hot war with Russia. Trump's an ass, but at least he's an ineffective one.

So that's the sole criterion for concluding that Trump is "better" than Clinton would have been? That the US isn't yet engaged in combat with Russia? And that a Clinton administration would already be?

Incredible. And it will doubtless be great comfort once Trump and the GOP have dragged the US into full-on authoritarianism, and minorities (ethnic, sexual, and other) are sent to government re-education camps, and North Korea rebuilds its nuclear capabilities in a year or two and no longer has to pretend to kowtow to South Korea in order to curry favor with anyone, and John Bolton's mustache glows from the reflected blasts of the Middle East mushroom clouds he, Trump, and Netanyahu are hoping to see PDQ.

Seriously: there is no honest objective comparison--and by honest I mean untainted by Russian-driven hatred for Hillary--in which Trump would be "better" than Clinton. (Okay, golf. He may be a better golfer than her; he's sure as hell had a lot more practice.)

Jim
I don't know where to start.


Yes - Not starting WWIII is a big deal. A huge deal.
Do I know that Hillary would have ramped it up this early in her administration? No, but I do fear that she might have kept her campaign promise to enforce a no fly zone in Syria on day one.


Your second paragraph with references to re-education camps smells a lot like the ultra-right who used to tell scary stories of the dreaded FEMA camps.
Bolton and the rest of Trump's motley crew are typical Republican hangers on. It's what you should expect whenever you can't nominate a candidate that can win elections.


As far as Russian hatred for Clinton, that's something I haven't been aware of. Putin prefered the "peace candidate", he also had found Kerry to be someone incapable of negotiating with, (it's all one word in Russian), but I don't recall him mentioning Hillary after the election. Not saying he didn't, just that it certainly flew beneath my radar.


Hillary should have won in 2000. She didn't.
Terry

[AbruptSLR]

ASLR

Snapshots in time and having so many sources (some with agendas, some less than competent, and some trying hard to get the data right) leaves at all times a murky picture.

That being said.  Are you actually serious in that you do 'not' see that the situation is deteriorating for the Dems?  The trends seem pretty clear.

Pointing this out is no different than pointing out that some set of data indicates a catastrophe may be coming (like data on ice in the antarctic for instance). One has an option of using the data to make a plan to change the outcome. If there is time.  Is there still time?  Maybe, maybe not. It depends on the actions of both sides.  But if one side does basically nothing and the other tries hard? Well then ...shit often happens.

While I admit that the Dems have an uphill fight in the coming midterm elections (with one of the most challenging Senate election maps in recent memory), I do not see their situation as degrading but rather as improving, due to the strong motivation for the Democratic base to turn things around.  Only time will tell:

Title: "Democrats’ Horrible 2018 Senate Map Couldn’t Have Come At A Better Time"

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-horrible-2018-senate-map-couldnt-have-come-at-a-better-time/

Extract: "The good news for Senate Democrats is that, given the party’s healthy lead in generic-ballot polling, they are likely to overperform again this year.  The bad news is that overperforming by enough to take back control would be unprecedented (at least in modern history). As mentioned above, Democrats’ -9 net FRITZ score in 2018 represents their worst position since 1992, and their best overperformance during that time frame has been +7. If Democrats repeat this and win seven more seats this year than partisan lean would suggest, that would translate to a Republican gain of two seats. Democrats need to overperform by a whopping 11 seats in order to snag a majority.

Still, Democrats should probably be thrilled with an overperformance of even half that. It all comes back to that pesky Republican bias in the Senate — and specifically its lopsided distribution. In short, 2018 could be not just bad, but a veritable armaggeddon for Senate Democrats. They should count their lucky stars that their worst-case map looks like it’s going to coincide with their best-case turnout environment."

[AbruptSLR]

The Democrats may have a real fight on their hands just to stand still in the Senate, but I think that the 10 Democratic candidates in states that Trump won have a fighting chance by saying what their constituents want to hear, even if that means criticizing Nancy, Diane, and Hillary:

Title: "The 10 toughest Senate elections for Democrats in 2018"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/4/30/17285240/senate-elections-2018-midterms-trump-approval-rating-by-state

Extract: "A slightly sarcastic guide to some must-win Senate elections if you like Democrats.

In the 2018 Senate elections, Democrats will have serious advantages — an unpopular President Trump, the historic trend of voters punishing the party in power — and one huge obstacle: 10 Senate Democrats are running for reelection in states that Trump won in the 2016 presidential election. You’re gonna hear about that a lot."

[AbruptSLR]

In the midterm elections the Democrats will not hesitate to throw Hillary under the bus, because she has retired from politics, so why not use her as a straw-man to knock down:

Title: "In midterm elections, Republicans are running against ... Hillary Clinton. Still."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2018/05/01/midterm-elections-republicans-hillary-clinton-political-ads-congress-ohio-governor/565800002/

Extract: "When Hillary Clinton lost her 2016 bid for the presidency, she retired from politics.
…
Republicans are the ones looking backward, Democrats say — because the GOP has nothing else to talk about as Republicans try to maintain their grip on power.

“It’s obvious that Republicans are desperate,” said David Bergstein, a spokesman for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. The GOP tax cut isn’t as popular as Republicans had hoped, he said, and Republicans haven’t accomplished much else. Moderate and independent voters may be worried about losing health care coverage or paying more under GOP proposals.

“This election will be a referendum on how Republicans have used their control of Washington to make life more difficult and expensive for working families,” Bergstein said."

[JimD]

In the midterm elections the Democrats will not hesitate to throw Hillary under the bus, because she has retired from politics, so why not use her as a straw-man to knock down:..

...Republicans are the ones looking backward, Democrats say — because the GOP has nothing else to talk about as Republicans try to maintain their grip on power. ...

I would argue very strongly that Hillary has 'not' retired at all.  And that the Repugs are always talking about national security and the economy.  To try and claim that they are a one trick pony is just bunk.

We see Clinton constantly interjecting herself into the media stream.  Whether it be to argue that she was treated unfairly during the election "They were never going to let me win." (https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/05/hillary-clintons-finger-pointing-show-will-cost-the-democrats/559298/) for instance, hawking her books (which are another attempt to rehash the election and keep her in the limelight, thru her political machine exerting strong efforts to maintain control over the DNCC, initiating fund raising for the Clinton Foundation again, running around giving speeches all over the place, etc.

This is not what a defeated Presidential candidate does who has retired.  Just think about all the other failed politicians from the last 20 years who are equivalent to her and that one heard basically nothing from them after their defeat. 

She makes it very easy for the GOP to use her still as a motivator of their voters and potential voters (and it really works well).  If she were really trying to help the Dems win she would be as quiet as a church mouse.

Being an extremely liberal person politically and living in a really red political location helps me monitor what the changing moods are among the Repug supporters.

During the last election I could clearly see that Trump had an idea of how to tap into their issues and that Clinton and the Dems were utterly clueless.  I caught flack all over the place for saying that the Dems were in trouble.  The day that Clinton spouted her "deplorables" comment I turned to the wife (who is as strong a Clinton supporter as you could imagine) and said she is going to lose.  The wife got tears in her eyes and said "yup".

A year ago here I could see the dawn of realization in many here that this coming election was likely to upend their cart.  They were a bit down about it and also somewhat accepting.  The sentiment was best get done what we can in the next two years.  But then, over time, they grew comfortable with the antics of Trump as they realized that a host of the dismantling govt policies they were in favor of were still going to happen.  They just sort of ignore Trumps craziness and, in some cases, they are even starting to think that his wacky approaches (as long as they are supported by a good cast of serious Repugs) will result in actual successes. Trumps and the Republicans support is much stronger now than it was a year ago.

The mood is on a strong upswing and motivation and involvement is climbing again.  Add in the possible great press from some kind of success in NK (which would be totally legitimate from any perspective), going after Iran hard (assisted ably by the Israeli's), more immigration debacles and there is certain to be an significant upswing in polling for the Repugs.  Note: it only takes a few percent change to turn elections the other way. Success in the NK thing all by itself will probably pull a few percent toward the Repugs overall and especially in the states like Penn, Mich, Wisconsin, AZ and so on. Repug and Independent America is always very concerned about National Security. 

Plus there is absolutely going to be a huge amount of money pour in from the right to support their candidates, the Dems are going out of their way to sabotage leftist and progressive candidates (thus killing young enthusiasm and hurting their own cause), Clinton is staying in the news, and so on.  These factors will naturally close the polling gaps.

The election is along way off still and a host of random events can impact it in either direction as always.  But the trends are towards a much closer election than they were 6 months ago.  Six months from now I really do expect that the polling will indicate an extremely tight race. Esspecially if the economy is still growing and the national security situation is getting better.

I don't have any desire to be hitting this topic every day as what we are talking about is trends and they take time.  Let's see where we are in a month and then another month after that.  That timeframe should show some kind of movement which is measurable. Cheers.

[Pmt111500]

Intermission:

[ritter]

The reason the Dems are in such a state is their inability to field anything new and positive. The on-going mantra of "vote for us, we're not Trump" just isn't exciting. The God-awful display the republican congress has put on under Trump's "leadership" should be enough to sink the party. Just the way running Trump should have been enough to sink the party. But it didn't. Trump won. I fully expect, baring economic collapse or other world-changing event, the repubs will do just fine in the midterms. If dems can't give me/us something to cheer for beyond "we're not Trump" (essentially Clinton's campaign), we'll have once again complacently snatched defeat from the drooling jaws of victory.

Several current events further this. The migration at the boarder will only fuel the xenophobes desire to build a wall. The Dems immediate reintroduction of an assault weapons ban as "common sense" gun control after the Florida shooting will only invigorate the right (and do nothing to reduce gun violence in the process). Korea, as has been stated. Trump's made more progress on that front blindly tweeting than anyone else I can recall. And while I cheer the effort Muller is putting into his investigation, very few beyond the echo chambers give a rats ass if he colluded with Russia or paid to play with Stormy.

What we need is a return to focus on the root cause of societal ills (we are not a healthy people here). Healthcare. Mental healthcare. Preventative healthcare. Education. Retirement. Infrastructure. Our environment. Bring me a plan I can be proud to support and vote for. Stop sniping, snarking and whining. Stop attacking the other party and come up with a plan that works. (I say all this as a lifelong democratic voter)