GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election

[Buddy]

If I were Traitor Don .... I would be worried about the latest polls in Florida.  Travis Marketing shows Nelson up by 10 points ..... 50% to 40% over Rick Scott for the senate seat now held by Nelson.  Public Policy has Nelson up by 2%.  Scott had been leading in ALL polls until recently.

The Governors race is also leaning to the Democrats.  I sure don’t hope the Dems win BOTH the Governors race AND the Florida Attourney General race.  Then Donnie is likely to be investigated for the crooked things he is doing at Mar a Lago.  And we wouldn’t want that.

[SteveMDFP]

Even if the bills to prevent Trump from appearing on state ballots unless he releases his tax returns are eventually found to be unconstitutional, still the trolling effect alone might impact the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The big picture: The state efforts to keep Trump off the 2020 ballot"

https://www.axios.com/states-tax-return-laws-presidential-2020-trump-88e84cce-7214-409d-b4c7-a24aad919bdb.html

Extract: "
Lawmakers in at least 25 states have introduced bills that would require presidential candidates to release their tax returns to appear on the 2020 ballot in that state — a clear swipe at President Trump, the only modern president who's refused to release his personal tax returns.

Why it matters: In theory, Trump could be blocked from the ballot in any state where the new requirement became law. But not a single state has enacted it so far, and the governors of California and New Jersey have vetoed it after it passed both state chambers. It's more interesting as a way for state Democrats to troll Trump than as an actual re-election threat.


Show less





Where it stands: Rhode Island is the latest state to pass this measure through its state Senate, according to the Providence Journal, and Maryland's state Senate passed a bill in May. Both will now move to their states' House of Delegates for consideration.

One big problem: It might not be constitutional for a state to require presidential candidates to release their tax returns in order to get ballot access. The U.S. Supreme Court has previously ruled that neither states nor the federal government can create additional qualifications for congressional representatives or senators, per AP, and various legal experts anticipate that would extend to presidential candidates.

Battle lines: Rhode Island Democratic state legislators argue that “tax returns provide essential information about candidates’ conflicts of interest." "

It's an interesting effort.  Legal minds disagree on the Consitutionality of such laws. I think the Supreme Court might well strike them down as formulated, based on prior precedents about candidate's access to the ballots.  That is, the  Consitution states qualifications for being President, and States cannot add to them.

However, all 50 states have provisions for when a given party candidate can get expedited access to the ballot, based on criteria such as the percent of voters registering with that party, or number of voters in that party's primary--it varies by State.

I think any state could limit that "fast-lane" access to the Presidential ballot to candidates who have released several years of complete tax returns.  Without the ability to run under the Democratic or  Republican banners, they'd  just be listed with all the "third-party" candidates.  They'd also face the more burdensome requirements that all the minor parties suffer to get listed on the ballot.

Procedurally, each such state could simply require that the signed letter from the fast-lane access party Chairman to  affirm,  under penalty of perjury, that the candidate has released tax returns.

[Daniel B.]

I would be extremely surprised if scotus allowed these requirements.  If they did, it could set a disturbing precedent, with the Republicans countering with ballot restrictions in red states.

[AbruptSLR]

The bottom line: "… the #NeverHillary Independents from 2016 could tip the scale toward Democrats in 2018".

Title: "Meet the 2018 swing voter: #NeverHillary Independents"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterms-swing-voter-never-hillary-independents-90c2eca4-b415-4ac8-afe4-35b917c8d271.html

Extract: "The bottom line: If nearly half of voters say their support of a Democratic candidate is in opposition to President Trump and the GOP, the #NeverHillary Independents from 2016 could tip the scale toward Democrats in 2018."

[AbruptSLR]

I would be extremely surprised if scotus allowed these requirements.  If they did, it could set a disturbing precedent, with the Republicans countering with ballot restrictions in red states.

As the cult of Trumpism has taken over the GOP, perhaps if liberal democracy around the world strikes back via targeted sanctions against the Trump Organization; this could help bring Trump to his knees and by extension, help the Democrats in 2018, and SCOTUS could not interfere:

Title: "America’s allies should respond to steel tariffs with targeted sanctions on the Trump Organization"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/5/17422492/sanction-trump-organization

Extract: "Forget retaliating against America; retaliate against something Trump cares about: his money."

[Buddy]

Anyone want to run against MJ Hegar?  Democrat.....in a RED district in Texas.  Long odds .... but I would be worried if I were running against her.  3 minute video clip.... 



When you are going up against people with HEART, HARD WORKING, AND ETHICS ...... you know you are going to be in a tough battle.

[TerryM]

I suppose it's legal to go after an opponent by proposing obviously unconstitutional bills, but it's an obvious waste of time and resources. If my Rep. was playing silly games like this instead of working on relevant legislation I might be tempted to vote for someone else come November.


Low voter turnout may result from these grade school antics.

Terry

[Daniel B.]

I suppose it's legal to go after an opponent by proposing obviously unconstitutional bills, but it's an obvious waste of time and resources. If my Rep. was playing silly games like this instead of working on relevant legislation I might be tempted to vote for someone else come November.


Low voter turnout may result from these grade school antics.

Terry

Yeah, makes you wonder if that is the type of person you want representing you.

[Buddy]

Donnie should be more worried after Ocasio-Cortez beat Crowley last night in New York.  The Dems are fielding some really good candidates.  She has degrees in Economics and International Studies.  She is PASSIONATE, well spoken, and energetic.  She has worked as a community organizer .... and even though she was out spent 18 - 1 ....  she got it done last night.  The Dems are in BETTER shape today with her, than they were yesterday with Crowley.

I STILL think it is likely that beady eyed Medicare crook Rick Scott will win in Florida, but yet another poll out last night shows him behind.😬

Dems chance of winning the Senate looks VERY SLIM indeed, but if you play the game with passion, you never know how things will ultimately play out.  Just ask soon to be former Representative Crowley.

In Texas, Cruz has a still sizeable lead in the polls over O’Rourke.  I REALLY like O’Rourke.  Sharp guy, passionate, good communicator .... Would LOVE to see him find a way to beat Cruz.  If he does ... I’ll buy everyone a pint!!!

If BOTH Cruz and Scott were to be defeated.... that would be earth shattering.  The chances of that happening are small indeed.  But things are going to get very dicey for candidates who embrace Trump over the next few months.

[Daniel B.]

Not sure that the NY result matters all that much.  The Dems were not losing that seat, regardless of the candidate.  I agree that Scott will probably win Florida.  Most polls show him with the lead, albeit slight.  Cruz looks even safer in redder Texas.  If they both win, the GOP needs to win just one of IN, TN, MO, ND, NV, WV.  I think the Dems will prevail in AZ, OH, and MT, but winning all six of those red states is a daunting task. 

Why do you think that things will get dicey for those candidates embracing Trump?

[TerryM]

NY is important as it illustrates the point that a progressive candidate, unencumbered by Corporate cash can win even when outspent 18 to 1.
The DNC & DCCC must be horrified as this exemplifies just how weak their slate is when challenged from the left.
Terry

[Buddy]

The Supreme Court nomination may come back to haunt Traitor Donnie.  I would keep my eyes peeled on Texas and Florida.  Those are BOTH states where I thought the Republicans.... (1) Cruz, the incumbent in Texas, and (2) Scott, the current governor of Florida ...... would win those contests.

Florida has tightened up A LOT in the last few weeks, and Scott is actually behind in a few polls.  In Texas, Cruz is still up "comfortably" by 7 - 10 points.  But we will see if the fact that we now know that Donnie is going to pick at least one more Supreme Court Justice will sway some of the moderates in Texas to go with O'Rourke.  I really DON'T know what the effect will be, if any, but we are about to find out.

In Missouri ..... the largest nail manufacturer in the US is getting HAMMERED  by the sanctions of Traitor Trump.  There just HAPPENS to be a VERY CLOSE SENATE contest in Missouri .... and Trump's sanctions are NOT going to help him there.

The US federal prosecutors will get the last of the "Cohen information" by July 5th.  Trump's COMPANY ..... has stepped in and is fighting to get some of it restricted by "attorney client privilege" ...... So the last 20,000 pieces of documentation are "up in the air" until that time.

I sure hope there aren't any tapes of Donnie on the phone with Michael Cohen.  Because if there are .... we will certainly hear what they are saying.  If the Democrat's win back EITHER the Senate or the House..... then that body will certainly have PUBLIC SESSIONS with people like Donnie Jr and others being put on the hot seat.

Sure seems like Trump Inc is REALLY WORRIED ABOUT WHAT MICHAEL COHEN HAS IN HIS POSESSION.  The only reason to worry, is that THEY HAVE SOMETHING TO HIDE.....OR..... MANY THINGS TO HIDE.

Next several weeks are KEY for Traitor Don..... and will likely effect what strategy he chooses with respect to Rosenstein, Mueller, et al.

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/trump-casts-doubt-on-russian-election-meddling-ahead-of-putin-summit/ar-AAzhCXm?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp

Keep your eyes and mind wide open.......

[Buddy]

11th District of New Jersey ...... Mikie Sherrill vs Jay Webber (R)

Take a look at this SHORT video clip of Mikie Sherrill.   This is the type of great candidates that the Democrat's are finally bringing to the game:



When you have GOOD, SHARP, ETHICAL folks ...... good things eventually happen.  I wouldn't want to be running against Mikie Sherrill that is for sure.   She is currently up by 4% in the polls .....

Since the district was "redistricted" in the 1980's ..... (by state republicans) the seat has been held by Republicans.  Right now ..... Mikie Sherrill (Democrat) is 4 points up in the latest poll.    This is rated a "toss up" right now.

[Buddy]

It’s early ..... still 4 months till elections .... but the “Cook Political Report” has 62 seats in the US House of Representatives AT RISK OF FLIPPING to the other party..... and 56 if those are at risk to flip to the Democrat’s and only 6 are at risk to flip to the Republicans.  Hopefully the Dem’s won’t read the good press, and instead keep on working hard on a grass roots basis.

The Republican who beat Eric Cantor 4 years ago is now being threatened by a really good candidate ... ex CIA employee .... female.  It is GREAT to see so many females stepping up to the plate.  I guess they figured out that they need to actually play in the game instead of watching from the stands ... if they wanted anything to get done.

[AbruptSLR]

Run, Beto, run!  In an uphill race, who knows whether Beto can pass Ted.

Title: "Beto-mania Sweeps Texas"

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2018/07/09/beto-mania-sweeps-texas-218961

Extract: "Ted Cruz’s long-shot challenger is drawing riotous crowds. Is it enough?

[jacksmith4tx]

Well Beto has the Willie Nelson vote!
https://www.civilized.life/articles/ted-cruz-rival-beto-orourke-jams-with-willie-nelson/

Full disclosure, my son is a member of his campaign team and I chipped in a $250 contribution.

[Buddy]

The Real Clear Politics map for the US House Of Representatives shows a real dog fight going on.

The most recent map shows Democrat's with 199, Republicans with 202, and TOSSUP (too close to call) 34.  So the Dem's would have to capture 19 of the 34 too close to call in order to win back the house (218 seats would be a majority).  Note that 32 of the 34 "too close to call" seats are currently held by Republicans.  Only two of those are now held be the Democrat's.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

It should be noted that the Dem's have a "solid" 175 while the Republicans have a "solid" 171.  So there are more "at risk" seats on the Republican side right now.

But it's early ..... too early ..... to draw any conclusions, other than the Republicans are likely to LOSE SEATS.  How many .... we'll have to wait.  Plenty of time for Traitor Donnie to stick his oversized foot in his mouth ...... and plenty of time for things to "hit the fan" in the Mueller investigation.

On the senate side ..... The Dem's probably have as much chance as winning the Senate as I do of winning a PGA golfing event (pretty darn close to ZERO ..... OK, maybe they have a slightly better chance..... but not much better).

[mostly_lurking]

It should be noted that the Dem's have a "solid" 175 while the Republicans have a "solid" 171.  So there are more "at risk" seats on the Republican side right now.

But it's early ..... too early ..... to draw any conclusions, other than the Republicans are likely to LOSE SEATS.  How many .... we'll have to wait.  Plenty of time for Traitor Donnie to stick his oversized foot in his mouth ...... and plenty of time for things to "hit the fan" in the Mueller investigation.

On the senate side ..... The Dem's probably have as much chance as winning the Senate as I do of winning a PGA golfing event (pretty darn close to ZERO ..... OK, maybe they have a slightly better chance..... but not much better).

I finally agree with you on something- zero chance for the Dems to take the senate, probably GOP will gain 1-3 seats. In the house I predict a gain for the Dems of 5-15.

As far as time for the president to mess up and create a losing cascade....he has just as much time to do something positive that would create a bigger hardship for the Dems .(...positive Marijuana legislation maybe ?)

Bottom line. There is no blue wave coming unless something big and bad happens.

[Buddy]

I finally agree with you on something

You were bound to get something right EVENTUALLY.  Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.   

[AbruptSLR]

The GOP is on the run:

Title: "A New Fox News Poll Should Scare the Hell Out of Republicans as 2018 Midterms Loom"

https://www.alternet.org/new-fox-news-poll-should-scare-hell-out-republicans-2018-midterms-loom

See also:

[mostly_lurking]

I finally agree with you on something

You were bound to get something right EVENTUALLY.  Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn every once in a while.   

Hehe, the one to something right is you    No blue wave a coming.

[SteveMDFP]

The GOP is on the run:

Title: "A New Fox News Poll Should Scare the Hell Out of Republicans as 2018 Midterms Loom"

https://www.alternet.org/new-fox-news-poll-should-scare-hell-out-republicans-2018-midterms-loom
 

It's a pretty thorough discussion of a single poll.  I find it more illuminating to look at 538 dot com's meta-analysis of multiple different polls over time, which suggests a widening advantage for Democrats over recent weeks, now an almost 9-point D advantage:
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

It shouldn't come as a surprise.  The Trump administration has executed a remarkable string of foul-ups that a majority of Americans are likely to be unhappy with

-most critically, separating young children from their asylum-seeking parents at the southern border,  and  now being unable to reunite many of these families.  Some parents were  deported without their children, and there's no mechanism to track the parents or reunite the families.  Stories of state-kidnapped children will continue through election day
-destroying  relations with NATO partners
-a summit for show only with NKorea, that advances no Western interests
-nominating another very conservative judge to the Supreme Court that is likely to vote to overturn Roe v Wade, a legal standard that most  Americans want to keep in place
-an extremely ill-advised set of unilateral tariffs that are now edging into a trade war with China.  Corporate interests are becoming increasingly alarmed 
-repeated efforts to undermine Obamacare, with premium increases that will  be announced before election day
-and, of course, a steady pace of more indictments and imminently a criminal trial for Manafort.

None of these issues will go away before election day.  The chart from Nate Silver is suggesting momentum for the Democrats.

Still, flipping the Senate seems improbable. Flipping the House is, I think, quite likely.  Not only will this flummox Trump's legislative agenda, it will mean investigative hearings into Administration misconduct that will dominate headlines for the two additional years until the next election cycle.

[Buddy]

Blue tide continues to rise.  If you follow “The Cook Political Report” you see every couple of days where races slip from “lean Republican” to “tossup” or “solid Republican” to “lean Republican” or “tossup” to “lean Democrat”.  Over the last week seats have slipped in Iowa, Michigan, Texas and elsewhere.

After the New York Times article tonight, Republicans will come under increasing pressure.  So will the Supreme Court nominee.

Things continue to speed up ....  and LOTS of Republicans in trouble.

[Buddy]

These are some of the things that have "washed up with the blue tide" over the past week per the "Cook Political Report".

* Iowa 3rd district:  Moves from "Lean Republican to tossup" (July 18th)

* Ohio 12th district special election:  "Going down to the wire" (it IS/SHOULD BE a solid Red district) (July 18th).  Note... election is next month.

* Michigan 8th district:  Bishop moves from "Lean Republican to tossup" (July 13th)

* Illinois 13th district:  Davis moves from "Likely Republican to Lean Republican" (July 13th)

None are moving the OTHER DIRECTION right now.

https://www.cookpolitical.com/

[mostly_lurking]

https://www.cookpolitical.com/

Nice site- thnx!

From the same site the senate seems to be sticking red and even more so . No "lean-R" and only 3 tossup. Dem side 2 "lean-D" and 5 tossup. Interesting.

[mostly_lurking]

Gallup poll on what the people think are the most pressing problems today.
Russia is practically non existent.

[jacksmith4tx]

Here is a brand new poll on the Helsinki meeting.
https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/news-polls/Half-of-Americans-agree-Trump-acted-treasonous-at-Helsinki-Summit

The sample includes 338 Democrats, 329 Republicans, and 224 Independents, about half the number of the Gallup poll.

[Buddy]

From Cook Political Report on July 18th:

New FEC Data Points to Severe Risk for House GOP

If the 2018 cycle has made anything clear, Donald Trump is the best fundraiser Democratic candidates have ever had. Democrats only need to pick up 23 GOP seats for House control, but their donors' desperation to thwart the president helped Democratic candidates out-raise a jaw-dropping 55 GOP House incumbents in the last three months. And 18 Democrats in GOP-held seats raised more than $1 million (not including self-funders).

For context, in the GOP wave of 2010, 44 Democratic incumbents were out-raised by GOP candidates during the same period, according to Politico's Elena Schneider. But that year, Republicans needed to pick up 40 seats for control, nearly twice what Democrats need now.

In other words .... KEEP TWEETING DONNIE....

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/house-overview/new-fec-data-points-severe-risk-house-gop

[Buddy]

I think most of you can now see how the Mueller and Cohen investigations are now overlapping with the coming election ..... and the decisions that Republicans are now going to be faced with in the coming weeks:

1). At what point do we cut the limb that Donnie is now on? When do cut our relationship with Donnie, and let the impeachment process start?

2). Who is going to ask Donnie to resign?  We’re a month or two away from this ...... but as polling for Republican Congressional candidates continues to deteriorate ...... and information about Trump lying on several fronts, Republicans won’t be able to run away.  Donnie’s filth that is covering them can not be easily washed off.  Pressure to ask for Trumps resignation won’t reach this point until more and more Republican Congressmen see their poll numbers drop.  The next 5 weeks or so will be very telling.

3). It is now clear that Republicans are going to face not only Donnie being kicked out of office ..... but also our friend Mikey Pence..... he is toast.  Are the Republicans going to push them both out of office BEFORE the November elections?  And if they do ..... who are they going to have as the leader of the House?  Paul Ryan has issues because he has KNOWN some of the things that have been going on with the NRA/RNC and Trump.  That will likely “disqualify” Ryan in the eyes of the Republicans.  So will the Republicans push out Ryan, and who will they replace him with? 

If the Republicans lose the House this November ...... they may very well lose the head of the Oval Office to the Dems.  As I said more than a year ago ..... timing will be everything.  Are Donnie and Mikey removed at about the same time?  Do the Democrats slow down the process so that Donnie and Mikey aren’t removed until AFTER the new Congress is seated in January, so that they will “slide into” the Oval Office?

There are likely several ways this can work out ..... and nobody knows for sure how things will shake out.  And if things look bad for the Republicans NOW ..... wait till 2020 when the Republicans have twice the seats at risk as the Democrats do in the Senate.

Over the next couple of years ..... if the Democrats win the House, there will be very PUBLIC hearings on the entire RussiaGate issue.  And there WILL BE a unbiased blue ribbon panel to make changes. 

Next couple months should be fascinating ......

[Buddy]

OUCH .....

Poll shows Trump's reelection support in key Midwestern states is slipping

Does President Trump deserve to be re-elected?

Minnesota:  30%

Wisconsin:  31%

Michigan:  28%

Also of note .... in a recent poll, Scott Walker is behind by 13% in his quest for re-election in his Governor's race in Wisconsin.  He is supported by the Koch Brothers...  And even though he is not a "Trump guy" .... he IS a Republican, and now in trouble according to the polls.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reelection-poll-numbers-2018-7

[AbruptSLR]

The GOP are slipping into the valley of darkness:

Title: "5 metrics that suggest Democrats are poised for big wins 100 days to the midterms"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/29/politics/5-metrics-100-days-midterms/index.html

[Buddy]

Below are 3 paragraphs from "The Cook Report" about the US House race coming up in November.  No need for the Republicans to worry ..... they're doing great. 

The Three Fronts of the 2018 Election

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/three-fronts-2018-election

The House, with its overall results the most sensitive to national moods and trends, looks awfully tough for Republicans. There are an enormous number of Republican seats in jeopardy with very few opportunities for the GOP to offset their losses by grabbing Democratic seats. In The Cook Political Report’s latest House ratings, examining every district from the 1st District of Alabama through Wyoming’s at-large seat, 10 Republican seats are rated either Leaning or Likely Democratic—in other words, probably turnover districts; an ample down payment, given that Democrats need a net gain of 23 to take a majority. Conversely, there is only a single Democratic seat that is in either the Lean or Likely Republican column. In the Toss-Up column, there are 24 Republican-held seats and only two Democratic seats. While Democrats have two of their own seats (both open) in the Lean Democratic column, Republicans have 25 of their own seats that are just Lean Republican.

To bottom-line all of this: Republicans seriously trail in 10 of their own seats, have 24 teetering on the edge and 25 additional seats in danger, a total of 59 seats in peril. That’s not counting another 27 GOP seats in the Likely Republican column, meaning they are not yet competitive but are being watched very closely. Democrats have one seat trailing, two teetering on the edge and two more in some degree of danger in competitive races, plus nine more seats in the Likely Democratic column.

The macro-political, top-down view similarly shows extreme difficulty for Republicans, including on the generic-congressional-ballot test. Republicans trail by an average of 7.2 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average, and 8.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average, with individual national polls indicating that the GOP is running anywhere from 4 to 13 points behind. On Thursday morning, a Marist University poll taken July 19-22 for NPR and PBS NewsHour of 923 registered voters nationwide was released, putting Democrats ahead by 7 points. Like other polls, it showed a Democratic intensity advantage, with 78 percent of Democrats saying the election was very important compared to just 68 percent of Republicans (keep in mind that, depending upon the poll, voters identifying as Democrats hold a 6- to 8-point advantage over those identifying as Republicans, compounding that deficit). Another telling finding is that while 83 percent of registered voters who are Democrats disapprove of the job that Republicans in Congress are doing, only 53 percent of Republicans approve of their party’s job in Congress, and 69 percent of independents disapprove.

[Buddy]

Tough times in Ohio these days ..... especially for people related to the athletics departments at "Thee Ohio State".

Looks like Urban Meyer .... head of the OSU football team, has his job on the line.  He knew about some wrongful behavior years ago .... and didn't say anything.

https://www.si.com/college-football/2018/08/01/urban-meyer-zach-smith-firing-ohio-state

And if that sounds like ANOTHER OSU ATHLETIC STORY ..... this one about an assistant wrestling coach THAT KNEW SOME BAD SHIT WAS GOING ON BUT DIDN'T SAY ANYTHING ...... I'll give you a small hint:

JIM JORDAN
US House of Representatives and resident liar in the US House from Ohio's 4th district ..... and wanna be Speaker Of The US House of Representatives.

Yes ..... ole Jimmy has a lot of things to answer for ...... and about 7 OSU wrestlers that say he knew what was going on AND DIDN'T SAY SQUAT.

That doesn't sound like US Speaker Of The House ethics to me.  In fact, that doesn't sound like US House of Representatives ethics to me either.

VOTE FOR Janet Garrett

[AbruptSLR]

While polls can be wrong it still seems increasing likely that O'Rourke might defeat Cruz:

Title: "Poll: Senate race between Cruz, O'Rourke a dead heat"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/399858-poll-senate-race-between-cruz-orourke-a-dead-heat

[Buddy]

As the saying goes in the US...... if you're digging yourself into a hole, STOP DIGGING!  What does US House of Representatives Jim Jordan (4th district of Ohio) do?

HE GETS A BIGGER SHOVEL.

He apparently .... per the report below, has talked one of his old prior coaches that coached with him, to try and talk the wrestlers into taking back their story.

Now Jimmie is going to be in REALLY HOT WATER.  This could be one to watch.  Jordan is in a district that is HIGHLY REPUBLICAN .... and he should, in normal times, win EASILY.   Now .... who knows what is going to happen. 

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/former-ohio-state-wrestling-coach-urged-rep-jim-jordans-accusers-to-recant-texts-show/ar-BBLnzEv?li=BBnbcA1&ocid=iehp

Retired Ohio State wrestling coach Russ Hellickson reached out to two ex-team members and asked them to support their former assistant coach, Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, a day after they accused the powerful congressman of turning a blind eye to alleged sexual abuse by the team doctor, according to the wrestlers and text messages they shared with NBC News.

The former wrestlers said their ex-coach made it clear to them he was under pressure from Jordan to get statements of support from members of the team.

Hellickson’s appeal to help Jordan came after the congressman repeatedly said that he had no idea that team doctor Richard Strauss was allegedly molesting the athletes — contradicting three wrestlers who told NBC News that Jordan must have known since the abuse was frequently discussed in the locker room.

[AbruptSLR]

More signs of cracks in the GOP armor:

Title: "Democrats hopeful after poll shows plummeting trust in Trump"

https://www.axios.com/2018-midterm-elections-democrats-poll-trust-trump-852398cc-7173-4ef6-8f4e-2861128bc85b.html

Extract: ""Russia, Immigration and Trade War Sticking to Trump" is the headline of a new polling memo for Priorities USA by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group and Global Strategy Group.

Why it matters: "This translates into the worst ratings for Trump on his truthfulness, temperament, dealings with Russia, and immigration policies we have not seen in any of our eleven previous national tracking surveys on the Trump presidency."

•"Trump’s dealings with Vladimir Putin, his handling of immigration and the separation of children from their families, and the impact of his trade war have stuck with voters in a way nothing else has since the beginning of his presidency."

•"In response to an open-ended question, voters volunteer in large numbers concerns about these issues.""

[jacksmith4tx]

"In response to an open-ended question, voters volunteer in large numbers concerns about these issues.""

Which proves advertising works yet again to mold "public opinion". The same reason Trump got elected in the first place.

If you are correct then will this succeed or fail?
https://www.fastcompany.com/90210705/ad-industry-supergroup-forms-to-battle-climate-change
"Ad industry supergroup forms to battle climate change"

Climate change-awareness campaigns are a dime a dozen, but Marshall says the core premise of Potential Energy is that the old narratives of anti-capitalism haven’t worked: We need answers which aren’t based on guilt and cutting back individually, but rather in stoking the business and innovation potential in finding a solution.

“Anyone lucky enough to see Dan (Schrag) present on the issue quickly learns that the way to solve climate change isn’t through sacrifice as much as it is through innovation,” says Marshall. “The entire global energy system of the world needs to change, and quickly. And that is as much an opportunity for our clients as it is a threat. It’s the biggest capitalist opportunity the world has ever seen.”

Update: This is the coalition of ad companies behind this.
https://www.potentialenergycoalition.org/

[Neven]

Kyle Kulinski doing some good work on Faux:

[SteveMDFP]

A gotcha moment with a new candidate doesn't say that much because it's easy to do. I wondered what is the 'democrat party' policy on this. I checked the Democrat website, all I could find was their 2016 policy platform  https://www.democrats.org/party-platform#fair-share

It's a bit out of date?

Is there a 2018 policy platform the candidates could use for talking points?

No.  The Democratic Party, at least officially, operates on Democratic principles.  You thus have to have a convention to adopt a new platform.  This happens every four years.

However, the congressional democratic leadership does have a role in crafting their own kind of "platform" in the interim.  The would be "A Better Deal."
https://abetterdeal.democraticleader.gov/

Other groupings of leadership surely have other policy positions.  There may be relevant documents from, say, Democratic governors of states. 

[Neven]

Kyle Kulinski on his own performance on Faux the other day, explaining how you beat Republican talking points/tricks:



I think he did really well there, especially the first three quarters of the back-and-forth.

[TerryM]

He thinks well on his feet and I thought that his ending, where he declares that he is right - look it up, was very strong.
Terry

[Neven]

Jimmy Dore also explains how Kyle Kulinski did such a stellar job in showing how to defeat the GOP and Trump:



Are any self-labeled Democrats watching? Or won't the donors allow it?

[AbruptSLR]

Trump is making the GOP's 'suburban problem' worse:

Title: "Trump blows up GOP's formula for winning House races"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/08/09/ohio-special-election-trump-gop-house-midterms-770889

Extract: "A POLITICO analysis of the vote breakdown in Ohio's special election shows that the party's suburban problem might be even deeper than feared."

[AbruptSLR]

Trump may transform the coming midterm blue wave into a tsunami:

Title: "Will Trump’s Monster Ego Guarantee a Blue Wave?"

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2018/08/midterm-elections-blue-wave-democratic-primaries

Extract: "Tuesday night’s elections suggest the political calculus behind a blue wave may be impossible to counter—and the president isn’t helping."

[Buddy]

Let’s take a look and see where the blue ripple/wave/tsunami is right now as seen from the lens of real politics.com for the upcoming election in November:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/elections/2018/

1). Senate:  45 Dems, 48 Republicans, and 7 tossups.  As I said before, the Dens would have to draw an “inside straight” in order to take the Senate.  Highly unlikely ..... but possible.  They could also lose seats to the Republicans.  Anything is possible, however, with Traitor Don at the steering wheel.

2). House:  199 Dems, 196 Republicans, and 40 tossups (all but two of the tossups are currently Republican seats).  This is the first time that the Dems have moved to the lead on Realclearpolitics.  The CURRENT ACTUAL count in the House is:  193 Dems, 235 Republicans, and 7 vacant.  So unless something DRASTIC happens ...... there is indeed a blue wave in the House.  218 seats are needed for a majority ..... so as of TODAY ..... the Dems have the advantage.

3). Governorships:  20 Dems, 21 Republicans, 9 tossups.  The Dems have continued to chip away at the Republican advantage ever since the Orange Turd took over in the Oval Office. 

Still 3 months left ..... so anything can happen, but as of now ..... there is definitely a blue wave coming.  The question will be what magnitude?

[Neven]

The question will be what magnitude?

And what kind of blue.

[Susan Anderson]

For those who think Democrats don't have their eye on the ball, it is encouraging (and true) [garn, can't find the link, and it was a very good summary!] that Democrats are focusing on the issues and letting Trump and the Russian stuff speak for itself.

I repeat: Democrats are focusing on the issues for the constituents. They know they don't need to attack Trump, who is a living breathing poison pill for his party.

and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html

[Neven]

and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html

Thanks, Susan. It's heartening to see this kind of spot-on analysis in mainstream media.

[AbruptSLR]

For those who think Democrats don't have their eye on the ball, it is encouraging (and true) [garn, can't find the link, and it was a very good summary!] that Democrats are focusing on the issues and letting Trump and the Russian stuff speak for itself.

I repeat: Democrats are focusing on the issues for the constituents. They know they don't need to attack Trump, who is a living breathing poison pill for his party.

and this: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/09/opinion/columnists/left-sanders-ocasio-cortez-primaries.html

+1

[AbruptSLR]

It looks like the Mueller Investigation is damaging Trump's credibility with voters:

Title: "CNN's new poll has very little good news for Donald Trump on Russia"

https://www.cnn.com/2018/08/14/politics/donald-trump-robert-mueller-poll/index.html

Extract:
"•    55% disapprove of how Trump is handling the "investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 election." Just 34% approve.
•   47% approve of how Mueller is handling the probe as opposed to 39% who disapprove, an improvement from the 41% approve/29% disapprove in CNN's last poll in June.
•   Almost six in 10 think Russia's attempted interference in the 2016 campaign is a "serious matter that should be fully investigated."
•   56% think Trump has attempted to interfere in the investigation.
•   Just more than one in three (37%) of respondents say Trump's public statements about the Russia probe have been completely or mostly true. By contrast, 56% believe what Trump has said about the investigation is either mostly or completely false.
•   Almost 80% of Democrats say that the investigation into Russian interference will be either extremely or very important to their votes for Congress this fall."