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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #50 on: May 07, 2018, 06:29:12 PM »
If Blankenship gets selected as the GOP nominee in West Virginia's Republican Senate primary, the GOP's image in general will suffer w.r.t the Congressional midterm elections:

Title: "Polls show Blankenship ahead, sparking panic among GOP"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/386498-polls-show-blankenship-ahead-sparking-panic-among-gop

Extract: "Internal Republican polls show ex-coal CEO and former convict Don Blankenship in the lead a day before West Virginia’s Republican Senate primary, prompting more GOP fears about a Blankenship surge.

An internal poll from one of Blankenship’s rivals taken on Saturday and Sunday found Blankenship slightly ahead with 31 percent of the vote, according to The Weekly Standard. Rep. Evan Jenkins came in second, with 28 percent, and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in third, with 27 percent.
...
The GOP views Manchin's seat as a prime pick-up opportunity to expand the party’s narrow majority in the Senate. President Trump won West Virginia by more than 40 points in 2016.

Some Republicans worry Blankenship’s controversial past could jeopardize their chances at unseating Manchin."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #51 on: May 07, 2018, 07:26:11 PM »
While the linked article is almost a month old, the six trends of the GOP's current death spiral are worth reviewing:

Title: "These 6 Inescapable Facts Help Explain the Republican Party's Current Death Spiral"

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/these-6-inescapable-facts-help-explain-republican-partys-current-death-spiral

Extract: "No good news for the Grand Old Party."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #52 on: May 07, 2018, 07:56:39 PM »
More evidence that the GOP is losing ground heading into the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Election forecaster: Nunes seat no longer ‘safe’ Republican"

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/385312-forecaster-nunes-seat-no-longer-safe-republican

Extract: "Rep. Devin Nunes’s (R) California seat is no longer considered a “safe Republican” seat, a top election forecaster said this week while shifting its outlook for several House races.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics moved Nunes’s seat to “likely Republican” as his Democratic challenger, Fresno County Deputy District Attorney Andrew Janz, continues to have fundraising success."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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sidd

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #53 on: May 07, 2018, 09:35:11 PM »
Convicted felon Blakenship ahead in primary ? oboy.

"Blankenship slightly ahead with 31 percent of the vote, according to The Weekly Standard. Rep. Evan Jenkins came in second, with 28 percent, and state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in third, with 27 percent."

"Another internal survey taken on Friday and Saturday also showed Blankenship with a narrow lead with 28 percent of the vote. This poll found Morrisey in second place, with 27 percent, while Jenkins received just 14 percent."

Blakenship: "I am Trumpier than Trump"

And Blakenship fires back some more:

" ... noting that Trump once urged voters to back a Republican candidate facing allegations of child molestation."

"He recommended people vote for a guy that was basically accused of pedophilia in Alabama ..."


http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/386498-polls-show-blankenship-ahead-sparking-panic-among-gop

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/386517-blankenship-hits-back-at-trump-he-backed-a-candidate-accused-of-pedophilia

sidd

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #54 on: May 08, 2018, 01:58:57 AM »
If the GOP wants to replace Mar-a-Lago as a symbol of corruption, with their own initials, then they should keep associating with convicted felon's like Ollie North, the new president of the NRA:

Title: "Ex-White House ethics chief: Trump’s Mar-a-Lago is a ‘symbol of corruption’"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ex-white-house-ethics-chief-trump’s-mar-a-lago-is-a-‘symbol-of-corruption’/ar-AAwTXey?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "The former director of the Office of Government Ethics says President Trump's Mar-a-Lago resort is a "symbol of corruption."

Walter Shaub in a Washington Post op-ed published Monday called Trump's nicknaming of his Florida estate the "Southern White House" a marketing pitch to people who want insider access."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #55 on: May 08, 2018, 04:50:26 PM »
While nothing is guaranteed, the tealeaves portend a blue wave in November:

Title: "Midterms begin today: 5 sobering stats for the House GOP"

https://www.axios.com/midterm-elections-republicans-stats-trump-congress-job-approval-e0e04a32-4d43-47fd-9046-5f1ba7d6e618.html

Extract: "When a party is this badly under water in national sentiment and perception, individual candidates have a hard time distancing or distinguishing themselves. That's why a wave is apparent so early — 182 days before Election Day.

1.   Congressional job approval: -56% (that is: 73% disapprove, 17% approve).
2.   Approval of GOP tax cut: -7% (that is: 44% disapprove, 37% approve).
3.   Direction of the country: -18% (that is: 55% of people think the U.S. is on the wrong track, 37% think the U.S. is headed in the right direction).
4.   Trump job approval: -8 (that is: 52% disapprove, 44% approve).
5.   Generic congressional ballot: Democrats +6 (that is: 45% of respondents say they'll vote for Democrats for Congress, 39% say Republicans)."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #56 on: May 08, 2018, 04:57:54 PM »
Democrat candidates are free to criticize Pelosi, so long as it helps them win:

Title: "Pelosi’s message to Dems who criticize her while campaigning: ‘Just win, baby’"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/08/nancy-pelosi-democrats-criticize-response-573362

Extract: "House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi said Tuesday she is unbothered by Democrats campaigning in swing districts by pledging not to support her for speaker.

Her message to such candidates, channeling iconic former Oakland Raiders owner Al Davis: “Just win, baby.”"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Daniel B.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #57 on: May 08, 2018, 05:43:35 PM »
While nothing is guaranteed, the tealeaves portend a blue wave in November:

Title: "Midterms begin today: 5 sobering stats for the House GOP"

https://www.axios.com/midterm-elections-republicans-stats-trump-congress-job-approval-e0e04a32-4d43-47fd-9046-5f1ba7d6e618.html

Extract: "When a party is this badly under water in national sentiment and perception, individual candidates have a hard time distancing or distinguishing themselves. That's why a wave is apparent so early — 182 days before Election Day.

1.   Congressional job approval: -56% (that is: 73% disapprove, 17% approve).
2.   Approval of GOP tax cut: -7% (that is: 44% disapprove, 37% approve).
3.   Direction of the country: -18% (that is: 55% of people think the U.S. is on the wrong track, 37% think the U.S. is headed in the right direction).
4.   Trump job approval: -8 (that is: 52% disapprove, 44% approve).
5.   Generic congressional ballot: Democrats +6 (that is: 45% of respondents say they'll vote for Democrats for Congress, 39% say Republicans)."

We should probably compare this election to 2006, when the Democrats regained both the House and Senate from a Republican president.

1.  2006:  Congressional job approval -50% (21 approve, 71 disapprove).  2018:  -56% 
2.  2003:  Bush tax cut +6% (45 approve, 39 disapprove).  2018:  -7%
3.  2006:  Direction of the country -47% (25 right direction, 72 wrong track).  2018 -18%
4.  2006:  Bush job approval -23 and falling.  2018:  Trump -8 and rising
5.  2006:  Dems + 11.5, gained 32 House seats.  2018:  Dems +6, ~16 seats (not enough).

In 2006, the Democrats gained 4 Senate seats, but 15 Republican Seats were up, compared to just 9 today.  I would be surprised if the Democrats make any gains here this election. 

The Democrats gained 32 House seats, and a similar results would flip the House.  Doing a very rough comparison of the two midterm elections, and using 2006 as the benchmark, here are my [math-based] conclusions:

1.  6 percentage pts. worse translates to 3 more seats, 35 total.
2.  13 percentage pts. worse translate to more, 6 more seats, 38 total.
3.  29 percentage pts. better translates to 20 less seats, 12 total.
4.  15 percentage pts. better translates to 21 less seats, 11 total, less if the trend continues.
5.  5.5 percentage pts. better translates to 15 less seats, 17 total.

The average gain is 23 House seats for the Democrats, one less than the number needed to flip.  Overall, the numbers are less favorable for the Democrats than in 2006 midterms, and even less favorable than in the 2008 general election.  The direction in which the polls are trending, however, are less favorable for the Democrats to flip the House.  Still, the snapshot today indicates that it will be close. 

sidd

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #58 on: May 08, 2018, 10:57:19 PM »
This ohio race is one to watch, might give an early hint of how many trump supportes will show in november. "America First" candidate against GOP candidate in the primaries today.

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2018/05/07/exclusive-in-ohios-trump-country-a-working-class-millennial-mother-leads-the-america-first-movement/

sidd

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sidd

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #60 on: May 09, 2018, 05:29:27 AM »
Trump faction of repubs stayed home: Hagan loses in the ohio race i mentioned earlier

https://www.politico.com/election-results/2018/ohio/

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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #61 on: May 09, 2018, 07:20:14 PM »
The linked article discusses how last night's Republican Primary results highlight a strong voting trend to throw-out incumbents.  While such a trend can impact both Democrat and Republican incumbents, the GOP has more to loss from this trend in the midterm elections as they  currently have more incumbents in Congress:

Title: "An Ominous Night for House Republicans"

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/05/blankenship-west-virginia-republican-establishment-mcconnell-trump/560006/

Extract: "The GOP's glee over Don Blankenship's defeat in West Virginia obscures warning signs for House incumbents, who lost three out of four races for Senate and a reelection primary on Tuesday.

… Republicans relying on incumbents not only to protect the House, but also to save or expand their majority in the Senate, the party in power has more to lose."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #62 on: May 10, 2018, 05:39:15 PM »
GOP gerrymandering in 2010 could help Democrats capture more House seats, than they otherwise would have, in 2018:

Title: "‘When gerrymandering backfires’: Democrats go after once-safe GOP seats"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/10/gerrymandering-midterms-democrats-house-seats-579890

Extract: "Republican redistricting maximized GOP gains in past years, but it could exacerbate the party’s losses in 2018."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #63 on: May 11, 2018, 05:45:13 PM »
It is swing voters who count in the up-coming midterms, and among these key voters, Mueller is gaining credibility and Mueller hasn't even interviewed Trump yet:

Title: "First look: Mueller gains credibility among swing voters"

https://www.axios.com/donald-trump-strategy-north-korea-china-japan-a663f173-3fa6-4fbd-b93b-cdd51d6310f1.html

Extract: "Firehouse Strategies, a Republican firm, partnered with the data analytics team at Optimus to interview 2,486 likely midterm voters in four swing states (Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin), and found that "the Mueller investigation is gaining credibility among independent voters.""
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #64 on: May 11, 2018, 07:59:15 PM »
The Democrats should sway swing voters by calling-out GOP disregard for the law:

Title: "House Republicans Want to Straight-Up 'Break' the Actual System of Law Itself"

https://www.alternet.org/news-amp-politics/house-republicans-want-straight-break-actual-system-law-itself
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #65 on: May 14, 2018, 04:39:14 PM »
The GOP is more underpinned by tribalism than by conviction.  This is a weakness that the Democrats can exploit in the midterm election:

Title: "Political Winds, Not Science, Sway Conservative Republicans on Climate Change"

https://www.usnews.com/news/national-news/articles/2018-05-10/political-winds-not-science-sway-conservative-republicans-on-climate-change?int=98f508

Extract: "In the span of just seven months under President Donald Trump, pollsters recorded a 9-point jump in registered GOP voters who believe that climate change is being mostly fueled by emissions from power plants, motor vehicles and similar activities.

The biggest swing occurred among self-described liberal and moderate Republicans, who saw a 14-point leap in the share of voters who accept climate science – more than half now agree that humans are driving climate change.

But even among conservative Republicans, that percentage rose by 5 points.

The sudden shift caused a stir among researchers with the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, which conducted the survey, as well as scholars and advocates who follow climate policy and sought to explain the change in views – especially among Republicans who were the most hard-line opponents to climate action and even climate science.

Much of the reason may be tribal politics: As Joseph Majkut, director of Climate Policy at the Niskanen Center, a libertarian think tank, points out, policies to address climate change are no longer being championed by the opposition party."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #66 on: May 14, 2018, 11:17:23 PM »
Swing voters are smarter than the GOP thinks:

Title: "GOP tax cut not why economy is booming"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/14/tax-cut-economic-boom-republicans-584197

Extract: "Economists are rolling their eyes at candidates’ claims."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #67 on: May 14, 2018, 11:25:27 PM »
Team Trump's counterattack may feed a coming blue wave:

Title: "Team Trump plans to go on “war footing” to fend off impeachment: It could backfire big time"

https://www.salon.com/2018/05/14/team-trump-plans-to-go-on-war-footing-to-fend-off-impeachment-it-could-backfire-big-time/

Extract: "Trump’s “witch hunt” counterattack is working — with his base. It also might strengthen the coming blue wave"
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #68 on: May 17, 2018, 02:07:58 PM »
Here an opinion piece on how the Democrats can gain ground on the GOP:

Title: "How Democrats Can Beat Trump’s White Identity Politics"

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/opinion-patterson-identity-politics_us_5a7391a6e4b01ce33eb12c61

Extract: "How do Democrats beat Donald Trump? Start by facing an unpleasant truth: Trump’s racism helped elect him.

Why? The Democratic Party increasingly reflects the affluent and educated ― including donors. Their progressivism focuses less on economic concerns than on equity for women and minorities, and single issues like reproductive rights, gun control and environmental stewardship. All these are important ― indeed, urgent. But many white working-class Americans have different, even opposing worries, including a profound sense of economic and cultural marginalization.

Given that, Trump is gunning for race-based debates that inflame white nationalism and identity politics. By pushing immigration “reform,” he means to distract blue-collar voters from his broken promise to protect their economic security, while pretending to do just that. Because his immigration program is a blatant attack on diversity and America’s best traditions, Democrats must fight him ― which, of course, is precisely what he wants.

What he surely dreads is a Democratic party laser-focused on exposing him as the plutocrats’ best friend. To assure his own survival in the Russia investigation and in 2020, Trump means to ride racism all the way.

In the end, as a matter of demographics, white identity politics is a poison pill for Republicans. But not, perhaps, for Trump. Democrats must weave their beliefs into a larger tapestry, fusing social and economic justice in a unifying program that transcends racial identity. To be blunt, where there are white votes to be had, it serves no one for Democrats to leave them on the table.

Democrats need to say that wage stagnation and income inequality affect individual Americans and America itself, eroding opportunity and economic growth. And that racial, social and economic justice are all tributaries of a true “American exceptionalism” that unleashes the potential of all our citizens to enrich us in every sense of that word.

Among many other things, that means early childhood education; schooling and retraining for the new economy; a program to revitalize our infrastructure and create good jobs. And it means affordable ― or free ― college for worthy kids who otherwise will never go.

Which of them, after all, could be among the scientists who help stem global warming; or the entrepreneurs and innovators who improve our way of life; or the coaches and teachers who inspire our kids; or the many millions of unsung men and women who hold their families together and raise their children to go further yet? In short, the countless people who can make us a better country ― and a richer one.

Thus, Democrats must say that Americans should never live in gated communities of the spirit, defined only by the most crabbed definition of self-identity. In the long run, no race or class can do better in a society that does worse. History’s graveyard is filled with plutocracies that numbed their citizens by scapegoating imagined enemies while serving a privileged few."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Daniel B.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #69 on: May 17, 2018, 02:19:33 PM »
One of the problems with that strategy is that those affluent Democrats are the ones living in gated communities and benefit from wage inequality.  The Democratic party represents those at both extremes, the very wealthy and the very poor.  By contrast, the Republican party is more compact.  It is precisely this compactness that benefit Trump.  He was able to tap into the frustration of middle America towards government programs which benefitted both ends of the income scale, leaving them behind.  The Democrats need to focus on this area.  The areas mentioned are already in Democratic hands, and will not win them any new voters.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #70 on: May 17, 2018, 10:03:51 PM »
While generic polls have their merits, but polls of highly interested voter show a much higher point advantage (than from generic polls) for the Democrats over the Republicans for the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "Congressional Polling Versus Special Elections: Are Democrats Really Heading for a Wave?"

http://www.thecrosstab.com/2018/05/01/generic-vs-specials/

Extract: "Here’s an example: a NBC/Wall Street Journal poll from mid-April found that the Democrats have a 7-point lead among registered voters, but a 21-point advantage among those who said they have a high interest in voting. This could approximate the difference between."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

TerryM

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #71 on: May 17, 2018, 11:12:09 PM »
ASLR
Have you checked the polling differences at Fivethirtyeight between:


Polls of Adults - (10.8 )
All Polls - (10.2)
Polls of likely or registered voters - (7.3)


The above are Trump's approval - disapproval numbers, not the upcoming 2018 races.
The "generic" question asking which party they would support in the coming election shows a Democratic lead of 5.8%
Many believe that today's Gerrymandering favors Republicans by 6%


These indicate that the more likely you are to vote, the more likely you are to approve of Trump.
Ignore them at your peril.
Terry

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #72 on: May 19, 2018, 12:51:27 AM »
A GOP 'House divided against itself cannot stand':

Title: "Republicans claw at each other over farm bill implosion"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/18/house-republicans-farm-bill-failure-597888

Extract: "House Republicans are at each other’s throats after the Freedom Caucus delivered a shock to party leaders on Friday by killing a key GOP bill over an unrelated simmering feud over immigration.

Speaker Paul Ryan and his leadership team were sure the group of three dozen rabble-rousers would cave. The partisan farm bill, after all, includes historic new work requirements for food stamp beneficiaries that conservatives have demanded for years. Plus, President Donald Trump leaned in, tweeting his support for the bill Thursday night to up the pressure on the far right."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

Daniel B.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #73 on: May 19, 2018, 03:51:15 AM »
Which begs the question, which party is more divided?

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #74 on: May 19, 2018, 01:06:10 PM »
Ted Cruz finds himself in a much closer conflict in his re-election campaign for Senator in Texas against O’Rourke.

The latest mass shooting at Santa Fe High School in Texas will NOT help Teddy.  The NRA owns Ted.  Ted also used the firm Cambridge Analytica in his presidential run.  This will be a race to watch.

I still DONT think that the Dems can win the Senate.  Manchin is in trouble in West Virginia, Indiana is going to be problematic, and Florida could slip away from the Dems.  So the dems could lose the same amount of seats that they are able to flip (Arizona, Nevada, etc).

But Teddy is definitely scum of the earth material, so IF the Dems were able to defeat him, that would definitely be good for the country.
« Last Edit: May 19, 2018, 03:46:40 PM by Buddy »
FOX (RT) News....."The Trump Channel.....where truth and journalism are dead."

Daniel B.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #75 on: May 19, 2018, 02:25:41 PM »
Ted Cruz finds himself in a much closer conflict in his re-election campaign for Senator in Texas against O’Rourke.

The latest mass shooting at Santa Fe High School in Texas will NOT help Teddy.  The NRA owns Ted.  Ted also used the firm Cambridge Analytica in his presidential run.  This will be a race to watch.

I still DONT think that the Dems can win the Senate.  Manchin is in trouble in West Virginia, Indiana is going to be problematic, and crook and Florida could slip away from the Dems.  So the dems could losing the same amount of seats that they are able to flip (Arizona, Nevada, etc).

But Teddy is definitely scum of the earth material, so IF the Dems were able to defeat him, that would definitely be good for the country.

Agreed.  The demographics are not good for a democratic takeover of the Senate.  Too many closed races in red states.  I would not be surprised if they came through the midterms with fewer seats.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #76 on: May 20, 2018, 07:01:24 PM »
A GOP Senate divided against itself cannot stand:

Title: "Blankenship wages war on GOP after losing Senate primary "

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/20/blankenship-gop-senate-west-virginia-senate-598053

Extract: "Blankenship has said the GOP’s newly minted Senate nominee, Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, would likely lose in the fall — and promised to work to defeat him. He’s not the only sore loser: In Ohio, businessman Mike Gibbons is harboring lingering frustration over Rep. Jim Renacci's primary tactics during their Senate race, according to a Republican close to Gibbons, and is not yet prepared to endorse the congressman’s campaign."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #77 on: May 21, 2018, 03:26:37 AM »
The House is currently rudderless with its lame duck Speaker; which could have major repercussions on the GOP congressional races during the midterms:

Title: "Paul Ryan's House is collapsing"

https://www.axios.com/paul-ryan-house-republicans-speaker-kevin-mccarthy-jim-jordan-a10fa352-29a3-4ea7-bb57-7a18725be1f8.html

Extract: "Paul Ryan's House is collapsing, and if the chaos keeps accelerating it could force him out of the speakership before his planned graceful exit at the end of the year:

The Republican House is careening into chaos at the moment its members most need to rally together. We're less than six months away from the midterms, and the House is on the line. Hill Republicans are anxious and effectively leaderless. Nobody fears repercussions from a lame duck Speaker. So even the usually well-behaved moderate members are wreaking havoc."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #78 on: May 21, 2018, 08:52:41 PM »
The GOP should tremble as they read these articles about the strength that comes from the Democrats' diversity:

Extract: "Surge of female candidates reshapes Democratic Party"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/women-2020-elections-599591

Extract: "A string of victories for women in primary elections across the country is beginning to reshape the face of the Democratic Party and accelerate a conversation about its future — with consequences that reach well beyond the 2018 midterm election horizon."

&

Title: "Snubbed in past, black Dems seek big gains in 2018"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/21/black-candidates-democrats-2018-599588

Extract: "After years of brush-offs by local and national Democratic groups, donors and operatives are putting new muscle behind black candidates in the 2018 midterms."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

JimD

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #79 on: May 25, 2018, 04:24:14 PM »
An item for this topic which will work against the R's is the rise in fuel prices.

High fuel prices hit the lower incomes much harder than anyone else so this does have some potential to impact the election if they continue for long. Though it is worth pointing out that Trumps core is mostly middle class and not poor and thus somewhat immune to the fuel prices. But it is the overall economy which is key and a downturn of any kind is bad news.

With prices rising so far there will certainly be a surge in production efforts and most all of that will be via fracking.  A counter balance to the high prices on workers will be that in a few of the red states there will be a surge in employment in the fracking businesses and this will improve the economic situation for some.  An interesting dynamic which may have some impact.  It is always possible that the administration/congress uses their power to tax (or not) and intervenes in the market to help their political cause also.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #80 on: May 26, 2018, 01:32:32 AM »
JimD, you're right about fuel prices. Trump/Bolton/Pompeo's idiocy about Iran will not turn out well for R's.

Though, to be honest, we need at least $1/gallon tax. Still getting the R's out of office is the teeniest start towards recovering from the monstrous ascendancy of lies and hatred.

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #81 on: May 27, 2018, 04:21:55 PM »
The surge of Democratic women will contribute to the blue wave in 2018:

Title: "Women surging in Democratic politics for 2018, 2020"

https://www.axios.com/women-presidential-candidates-2020-democratic-party-trump-7e6069aa-fc74-449a-99dd-273fc1dd44c6.html

Extract: "The biggest trend in midterm Democratic politics is women kicking ass, a sign of energy and momentum for women presidential candidates in 2020."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #82 on: May 28, 2018, 05:38:27 AM »
GOP infighting in the California US House fight could cost the Republicans control of the US House:

Title: "Republicans turn on each other in California US House fight"

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/republicans-turn-on-each-other-in-california-us-house-fight/ar-AAxSns9?ocid=spartandhp

Extract: "What was once a political kinship forged around the values of the Reagan revolution has deteriorated into a nasty rivalry in a state where Republicans can scarcely afford it."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #83 on: May 29, 2018, 03:19:17 AM »
The GOP keeps shooting itself in the foot:

Title: "Republican congressman will quit Congress: "I am an alcoholic""

https://www.axios.com/republican-rep-tom-garrett-alcoholic-1527545982-43498f8a-0d5a-4edb-9ed2-10ae1922b6c1.html?utm_source=sidebar

Extract: "Rep. Tom Garrett of Virginia announced Monday that he is an alcoholic and won't run for re-election, just days after a Politico report on his treatment of staff. In a statement, the Virginia Republican denied the staff treatment allegations.

Why it matters: Garrett's exit from the race moves his district from a "Likely R to Leans R," tweeted election analyst Kyle Konkik."
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #84 on: May 29, 2018, 03:23:25 AM »
Younger Democratic candidates are adding momentum towards a blue wave in November:

Title: "Millennials take on Trump in the midterms"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/28/democrats-millennials-midterm-elections-610024

Extract: "Younger candidates are flooding Democratic congressional primaries — and winning."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #85 on: May 29, 2018, 05:13:23 PM »
Per the linked Reuters poll information from last week (to June 24), the Dems are leading the GOP in the midterm race for Congressional seats:

Title: "Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?"

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180101-20180524/collapsed/true
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #86 on: May 30, 2018, 10:06:28 PM »
Republicans are an endangered species in California:

Title: "California Republicans hit rock bottom"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/30/california-republicans-third-party-status-613568

Extract: "In the culmination of the withered state GOP’s long slide toward near-political irrelevance here, new voter registration data released this week show the once-robust party trails behind both Democrats and “no party preference” in the nation's most populous state. The California Republican Party is now outnumbered by independent voters by 73,000, according to Political Data Inc., which tabulates voter file data from county registrars."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #87 on: June 06, 2018, 07:53:41 PM »
Based on the California primary results, the Democrats are on track to gain control of the House in the mid-term elections:

Title: "California’s primary results suggest Democrats are on track for a House majority"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/6/17433846/california-primary-results-democratic-majority

Extract: "Tuesday night’s California primary election results confirm that, as best we can tell, Democrats are on track to secure a narrow House majority in the 2018 midterms."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #88 on: June 06, 2018, 08:13:13 PM »
Schumer thinks that the Democrats have a 'very good chance' of taking control of the Senate in the midterm elections:

Title: "Schumer: Democrats could take Senate majority"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/06/democrats-senate-majority-2018-schumer-629123

Extract: "‘When you look race by race, we have a very good chance,’ he said in an interview.

But five months before the election, Schumer insisted he’s optimistic, touting internal Democratic polls that show even Trump backers in six deep-red states prefer a Democrat who can counter the president.

“As Trump’s going up, our senators are going up in the polling,” Schumer said, crediting a crop of Democratic incumbents “who are identified with their own states, as opposed to identified with Washington and the national party.“ "
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #89 on: June 07, 2018, 12:12:30 AM »
McConnell would not announce his plan to cancel the Senate's August recess unless he was concerned that he is going to lose control of the Senate after the midterm elections:

Title: "Mitch McConnell cancels Senate’s August recess"

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/6/5/17430518/mcconnell-cancels-august-recess-congress-midterms

Extract: "McConnell’s decision could also have a consequential impact on the midterms. By keeping incumbent senators tied to Washington, the majority leader forces vulnerable Democrats — and Republicans — to reconfigure their campaign schedules or weigh the consequences of skipping out on work."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Daniel B.

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #90 on: June 07, 2018, 01:42:45 PM »
While the House is definitely up for grabs, I view a Democratic takeover of the Senate as a long shot.  With 35 Senates seat up for election this year, the Republicans just need to win 8 to keep control.  Six of those eight are in relatively safe states.  Eighteen are considered safe Democratic seats.  That leaves eleven being highly contested.  Of those, ten are in states that Trump won in 2016.  Early polling indicates that all these races will be close.  As far as winning a Republican seat, Arizona and Nevada seem to offer the best chances.  That said, the Democrats must retain all their seats, which may be difficult in states like Indiana, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia, and especially Florida.  The main advantage that the Democrats have is the unpopularity of Trump.  The disadvantage is that neither Trump nor the economy has imploded.  Pedictit has the Democrats with a 30% chance to win the Senate.  CNBC expects the Republican to increase their Senate majority. 

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #91 on: June 07, 2018, 08:20:11 PM »
A few months ago I said to watch a few things this election cycle:

1)  Watch the "Parkland crew" and gun control movement.  At the time I said I thought that the Parkland folks didn't look like they would "run out of gas"..... and I said I expected their momentum to keep moving forward.  So far... so good.  They AREN'T going to quit.

2)  Watch the stock market.  I said that I thought there was a very good chance that the S&P gets down to somewhere in the 1,800 - 2,000 level.  The market has a LONG WAY to go.... and I still think it can "get there".

3)  Russian Investigation.  I said back in late Feb/early March that things would be "picking up" come the "ides of March" (March 15th).  They have indeed.... and we have further to go, with MANY....MANY....MORE INDICTMENTS TO COME.

We'll see how those three items play out over the coming months.  Donnie is in BIGLY TROUBLE, along with most of his family, his personal attorney, and many folks both in Congress now... and some that WERE in Congress (Right Jason Chaffetz).



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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #92 on: June 07, 2018, 11:53:03 PM »
In the midterm election Trump will likely act as an albatross around the collective GOP neck:

Title: "Poll: Almost half of voters more likely to pick candidate who would be check on Trump"

http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news-campaigns/391129-poll-almost-half-of-voters-more-likely-to-pick

Extract: " Almost half of voters in a new poll say they want to elect congressional candidates in the midterms who will serve as a check to President Trump's power in Washington.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey released Thursday found that 48 percent of voters say they are more likely to support a candidate in the November midterms who promises to be a check on Trump. Less than one-quarter, 23 percent, said the opposite.
Pollsters also found that more than half of voters, 53 percent, said they are less likely to support a congressional candidate who supports some or most of Trump's signature issues. Less than one-third, 31 percent, would back a candidate who supports Trump's issues."
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #93 on: June 08, 2018, 12:16:53 AM »
After the latest round of primaries, Fivethirtyeight estimates increased chances that the Democrats will gain seats in Congress:
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #94 on: June 12, 2018, 07:55:39 PM »
Hopefully, there will be a voter backlash against this un-American behavior by the GOP:

Title: "Fraud Fiction Becomes Purge Reality"

https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2018/06/supreme-court-husted-decision-will-disenfranchise-minority-and-low-income-voters.html

Extract: "The Supreme Court’s decision in Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute is the culmination of a decades-long effort to disenfranchise minority and low-income voters."
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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AbruptSLR

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #95 on: June 15, 2018, 06:09:42 PM »
The Democrats are gaining ground in their effort to try to gain control of the Senate in the midterms, but they still have an uphill battle ahead of them:

Title: "Shrinking map boosts Democrats in battle for the Senate"

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/15/senate-midterms-map-republicans-majority-democratic-incumbents-646183

Extract: "The Senate battleground map has shrunk dramatically in recent weeks — a net plus for Democrats but not enough to change their status as heavy underdogs to win the chamber in November.

Democratic incumbents look increasingly safe in four Rust Belt states President Trump carried in 2016 — Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Republicans are locked in a bitter primary until August. Both parties agree a core universe of states are truly in play: Republicans are targeting Democratic incumbents in Missouri, Indiana, Florida and North Dakota, while Democrats are contesting GOP-held seats in Nevada, Arizona and Tennessee. There is disagreement on how competitive West Virginia and Montana are."
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Susan Anderson

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #96 on: June 16, 2018, 08:30:25 PM »
For those interested in US politics at the state level, this is interesting. I rely on 538, as its proven methodology takes out some of the extremes and biases. However, Trump's evaluation has a 3-7 day lag (he's still getting a bump from Korea).

How Trump’s Popularity Is Holding Up, By State https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-trumps-popularity-is-holding-up-by-state/

For those who think we are monolithic, the state by state percentages might help them see that is not the case. I did have a quibble when I looked at Massachusetts (where I vote), since I know Clinton won by 27% and I see Trump at -4% in January 2017. Anyone who wants that overview for comparison, try this: https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/president

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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #97 on: June 21, 2018, 06:20:06 PM »
There are 4 Senate seats that now look like they will go to the Republican's in November (according to most current polls):

1)  Indiana (currently held by Dem running for re-election)
2)  North Dakota (currently held by Dem running for re-election)
3)  Florida (currently held by Dem. running for re-election)
4)  Texas (currently held by Repub Cruz running for re-election).

These aren't the only "close ones" .... but these are the "close ones most likely to go to Republicans".

But ALL of them are still fairly close.... at least at this early date.  So anything could happen.  Will Ted Cruz stumble as he tries to massage the possibility of running for prez again while at the same time trying to beat O'Rourke for his senate seat in November?

http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/ted-cruz-is-running-again-trump-is-still-making-things-complicated/ar-AAyWSzT?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #98 on: June 21, 2018, 10:22:58 PM »
Democrats target turning out minority voters in battleground districts:

Title: " Where the DNC is targeting unregistered minority voters"

https://www.axios.com/dnc-2018-plan-minority-voter-outreach-3824f23e-73f9-42b0-ac78-62338599de4f.html

Extract: "The Democratic National Committee is investing $2.5 million to turn out minority voters from St. Louis to Maine for this November's midterm election, per NYT's Astead Herndon.

Why it matters: This might be the party's largest plan yet to target minorities, specifically those who don't typically vote, in a midterm election year. As the base of the Democratic Party, these voters could help Democrats take back the House."
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Re: GOP Losing Ground for the 2018 Mid-Term Election
« Reply #99 on: June 24, 2018, 06:02:53 PM »
Even if the bills to prevent Trump from appearing on state ballots unless he releases his tax returns are eventually found to be unconstitutional, still the trolling effect alone might impact the 2018 midterm elections:

Title: "The big picture: The state efforts to keep Trump off the 2020 ballot"

https://www.axios.com/states-tax-return-laws-presidential-2020-trump-88e84cce-7214-409d-b4c7-a24aad919bdb.html

Extract: "
Lawmakers in at least 25 states have introduced bills that would require presidential candidates to release their tax returns to appear on the 2020 ballot in that state — a clear swipe at President Trump, the only modern president who's refused to release his personal tax returns.

Why it matters: In theory, Trump could be blocked from the ballot in any state where the new requirement became law. But not a single state has enacted it so far, and the governors of California and New Jersey have vetoed it after it passed both state chambers. It's more interesting as a way for state Democrats to troll Trump than as an actual re-election threat.

Where it stands: Rhode Island is the latest state to pass this measure through its state Senate, according to the Providence Journal, and Maryland's state Senate passed a bill in May. Both will now move to their states' House of Delegates for consideration.

One big problem: It might not be constitutional for a state to require presidential candidates to release their tax returns in order to get ballot access. The U.S. Supreme Court has previously ruled that neither states nor the federal government can create additional qualifications for congressional representatives or senators, per AP, and various legal experts anticipate that would extend to presidential candidates.

Battle lines: Rhode Island Democratic state legislators argue that “tax returns provide essential information about candidates’ conflicts of interest." "
« Last Edit: June 25, 2018, 04:57:20 PM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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