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Poll

When will the Arctic Extent dip below 1,000,000 Km^2

2018-2019
11 (16.9%)
2020-2025
21 (32.3%)
2026-2030
12 (18.5%)
2031-2040
15 (23.1%)
2041-2060
2 (3.1%)
2061-2080
0 (0%)
2081-2099
1 (1.5%)
2100-beyond
3 (4.6%)

Total Members Voted: 65

Voting closes: July 27, 2018, 07:46:32 AM

Author Topic: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?  (Read 1258 times)

Wherestheice

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When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« on: July 12, 2018, 07:46:32 AM »
This thread is kinda like the one titled "How soon could we go ice free", but I am curious on everyone's thoughts on WHEN exactly the ice will melt to 1 Mil. Km...

Votes up for 15 days, 1 vote per user.

mostly_lurking

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #1 on: July 12, 2018, 08:55:19 AM »
There is an error in this poll. No option for anything above 2100. Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.
« Last Edit: July 12, 2018, 09:45:19 AM by mostly_lurking »

Sleepy

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #2 on: July 12, 2018, 08:57:13 AM »
Since you also asked for thoughts; thinking when we get our next moderate to strong La Nina, so between 2020-2025 was my choice.
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Lurk

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #3 on: July 12, 2018, 10:10:03 AM »
I'd prefer a 2023-2027 option :)
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RikW

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #4 on: July 12, 2018, 10:25:42 AM »
I go for 2018-2020;

I can't believe this year will be the year, although the ice is falling apart in small parts quickly, the melt season will be too short/ freezing will start soon enough, but based on the graphs/ satelite numbers etc. I think the state of the ice is changing so fast the models overestimate ice-quality and it's much worse than it appears to be.

And even then I think/fear we will reach record low numbers end of august/ in september.

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #5 on: July 12, 2018, 10:41:41 AM »
There is an error in this poll. No option for anything above 2100. Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.

Edit made and you can change your vote, i'm guessing you were the vote for 2080-2100, so you can change now. 8)

mostly_lurking

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #6 on: July 12, 2018, 10:44:46 AM »
There is an error in this poll. No option for anything above 2100. Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.

Edit made and you can change your vote, i'm guessing you were the vote for 2080-2100, so you can change now. 8)

Thnx :)  Doesn't seem to let me change at the moment.

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #7 on: July 12, 2018, 10:45:59 AM »
I'd prefer a 2023-2027 option :)

5 year increments for the 20's seemed best imo, 2025-2030 would fit your thoughts best id say. ;)

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #8 on: July 12, 2018, 10:47:33 AM »
There is an error in this poll. No option for anything above 2100. Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.

Edit made and you can change your vote, i'm guessing you were the vote for 2080-2100, so you can change now. 8)

Thnx :)  Doesn't seem to let me change at the moment.

Oh hmm, can you not remove your vote than re-vote?

Neven

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #9 on: July 12, 2018, 10:57:26 AM »
I've edited the poll.

And voted 2030-2040.
Compare, compare, compare

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #10 on: July 12, 2018, 10:58:41 AM »
I've edited the poll.

And voted 2030-2040.

Thanks Neven!

oren

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #11 on: July 12, 2018, 11:07:08 AM »
2025-2030. I would be very surprised if it didn't happen by 2030. I wouldn't be surprised if it came earlier.

Hefaistos

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #12 on: July 12, 2018, 11:55:41 AM »
We need to move out of the solar minimum and we need a strong El Nino, I voted 2030-40

Richard Rathbone

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #13 on: July 12, 2018, 12:54:19 PM »
Never. Under BAU 2030-2040, but I don't think there's that much BAU left.

Stephan

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #14 on: July 12, 2018, 12:58:51 PM »
I expect 0 km² around 2025 ± 2 years. Therefore I chose the bin 2020-2025 for the 1M km² question.

Pmt111500

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #15 on: July 12, 2018, 01:21:13 PM »
Went for 2020-2025 to keep the middle finger of the right hand up...year 2022 was a projection before 2017 dissed the statistics and partial mechanism used to concoct the value. Really if the increased cloudiness over arctic can divert some of the oceanic heat accumulated in the tropics to be moved back to Tropics and then Southern hemisphere, this might be off by some tine.
A quantity relates to a quantum like camel's back relates to camel's _______ ? (back, vertebra, vertebral tendon, spinal disc, paralysis)

DavidR

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #16 on: July 13, 2018, 02:20:13 AM »
2020 - 2025 : Without a significant reduction in the average volume loss from one year to the next there is little chance of extent surviving beyond 2025.  The average decline in minimum volume has been 440 km^3 / year over the past 20 years, up from 161 km^3 / year over the previous 20 years.  If  that rate of decline continues the minimum volume will be around 1000 km^3 by  2025.

The average minimum over this decade has been 4920 km^3.  I expect that there will be at least one year in the next 8 where the volume minimum will drop sufficiently to take extent below 1M km^3.
Toto, I've a feeling we're not in Kansas anymore

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #17 on: July 14, 2018, 02:26:43 AM »
I voted 2020-2025, but with an El Niño likely developing, and the ice already in a bad state, I wouldn’t be surprised if next year is the “year”.

Sterks

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #18 on: July 14, 2018, 07:43:23 AM »
Yeah I also feel that when the next Super Niño develops we may subsequently have a bad year or bad sequence of years for Arctic ice (superimposed to the gradual decline). 1998 may have started the slide down in the 2000's. Assisted by the super warm 2005 year. 2014-2015 Niño may have triggered the warm Winters of recent...
No vote, no idea when the next Super Niño will come.

Ken Feldman

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #19 on: July 19, 2018, 09:03:24 PM »
I went for 2025 - 2030, assuming a 2012 like season (lots of early melt ponds followed by a GAC at exactly the wrong time) after another decade of increased volume losses. 

I think the first ice-free September will be followed by several strong rebound years due to the negative feedbacks associated with ice freezing, so we won't see repeated ice-free Septembers until the late 2030s or 2040s.  By that time, the Laptev will be more like the Atlantic than the Arctic in salinity, allowing more warm Atlantic water to flow into the central Arctic, which will bring too much heat into the Arctic to prevent ice free falls beyond the middle of this century.

litesong

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #20 on: July 20, 2018, 02:42:49 AM »
Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.
Ah.... an AGW denier who knows the solar TSI will continue...into the foreseeable future/never..... at a subnormal irradiation level, as it has for the last 12+ years (including a 3+ year period setting a 100 year record low).

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #21 on: July 20, 2018, 04:22:55 AM »
Should have at least one option After 2100/not in foreseeable future/never.
Ah.... an AGW denier who knows the solar TSI will continue...into the foreseeable future/never..... at a subnormal irradiation level, as it has for the last 12+ years (including a 3+ year period setting a 100 year record low).

The chances of an ice free arctic not happening till then is probably really low anyways

Juan C. García

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #22 on: July 20, 2018, 04:40:11 AM »
And voted 2030-2040.

Same as Neven [2030-2040].
And the same as my vote on when will PIOMAS be less than 1,000 km3.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Lurk

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #23 on: July 20, 2018, 06:05:57 AM »
And voted 2030-2040.

Same as Neven [2030-2040].
And the same as my vote on when will PIOMAS be less than 1,000 km3.

I'm curious to know why both of you opine that period. Thanks.
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Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #24 on: July 20, 2018, 06:07:19 AM »
And voted 2030-2040.

Same as Neven [2030-2040].
And the same as my vote on when will PIOMAS be less than 1,000 km3.

I'm curious to know why both of you opine that period. Thanks.

Me as well

Lurk

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #25 on: July 20, 2018, 06:18:27 AM »
And voted 2030-2040.

Same as Neven [2030-2040].
And the same as my vote on when will PIOMAS be less than 1,000 km3.

I'm curious to know why both of you opine that period. Thanks.

Me as well

My 'guess' is increasing cloudiness and snow cover due to a change in normal past arctic climate/weather from global climate changes .... but I don't like making assumptions or guesses as to what others think or why, so I asked.
Previously known as  ASILurker - sorry should have said that before
"The history of the race, and each individual's experience, are thick with evidence that a truth is not hard to kill and that a lie told well is immortal." — Mark Twain

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #26 on: July 20, 2018, 06:29:09 AM »
And voted 2030-2040.

Same as Neven [2030-2040].
And the same as my vote on when will PIOMAS be less than 1,000 km3.

I'm curious to know why both of you opine that period. Thanks.

Me as well

My 'guess' is increasing cloudiness and snow cover due to a change in normal past arctic climate/weather from global climate changes .... but I don't like making assumptions or guesses as to what others think or why, so I asked.

Thats also the mainstream view in science. I think its safe to say it could happen next year or 22 years from now.

miki

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #27 on: July 20, 2018, 07:24:35 AM »
Unless some real winter cold kicks in, I don't see how the arctic ice can go on to survive past the summer of 2022. Voted 2020-2025. Thanks, Neven.

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #28 on: July 20, 2018, 11:06:30 AM »
These polls keep coming up, I thought I just missed voting in one that looked like this.

This is an easy vote as I don't know the answer but the bin 2020-2025 spans 6 years in the near future. That's my choice.

It doesn't look like it is going to be this year, so the 2018-2020 bin only has two potentially realistic years and so can't compete with the 6 years in the second bin. The year 2020 is in both bins so the only year the first bin really has going for it is next year, 2019.

The bins after that are disfavored because the event may well have already happened prior to the years in those bins.


Comment: it looks a little strange to have the bins overlapping by one year. For example, the year  2020 is in both of the first 2 bins. This could have been avoided (and my vote made more difficult) by reducing the second bin to the 5-year interval 2021-25. Similarly, the later bins could be changed to begin in years starting with either a '1' or a '6'.

Also, the units should be km^2, not just km.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 11:19:06 AM by slow wing »

Wherestheice

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Re: When will the Arctic Go Ice Free?
« Reply #29 on: July 20, 2018, 12:13:21 PM »
These polls keep coming up, I thought I just missed voting in one that looked like this.

This is an easy vote as I don't know the answer but the bin 2020-2025 spans 6 years in the near future. That's my choice.

It doesn't look like it is going to be this year, so the 2018-2020 bin only has two potentially realistic years and so can't compete with the 6 years in the second bin. The year 2020 is in both bins so the only year the first bin really has going for it is next year, 2019.

The bins after that are disfavored because the event may well have already happened prior to the years in those bins.


Comment: it looks a little strange to have the bins overlapping by one year. For example, the year  2020 is in both of the first 2 bins. This could have been avoided (and my vote made more difficult) by reducing the second bin to the 5-year interval 2021-25. Similarly, the later bins could be changed to begin in years starting with either a '1' or a '6'.

Also, the units should be km^2, not just km.

Done