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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1000 on: December 11, 2018, 07:39:02 PM »
This Detroit automotive critic and active race car driver doesn't believe in climate change. He even bleeds oil. So, why did he buy a Tesla Model 3?
https://insideevs.com/hardcore-gearhead-buys-a-tesla-model-3-video/amp/
Article with (lengthy) video — this segment ‘officially’ starts around 7 minutes in, goes to ~45:00

Edit: adding new article:
FUTURIST AND BEST-SELLING AUTHOR RECONSIDERS THE AUTO INDUSTRY AFTER DRIVING A TESLA
Quote
Daniel Burrus … recounts that he’d also taken test drives with the newest SUVs from BMW, Mercedes, Porsche, and Cadillac. “However, it was when I drove the Tesla Model X that I felt like I was driving in the future. After that test drive, my view of the other brands was changed. All the others instantly felt like the past”….
https://insideevs.com/tesla-model-x-test-drive-unusual-phenomenon/amp/

Tesla is launching a new retail offensive with a focus on malls
The automaker now appears to be doubling down on locations inside malls as it now expands to smaller and less ‘high-end’ malls.
https://electrek.co/2018/12/10/tesla-stores-focus-malls/

Tesla received HIGHEST RATING in Guangzhou (China) new energy consumption survey report.
https://teslatopinfo.com/2018/12/10/tesla-received-highest-rating-in-guangzhou-china-new-energy-consumption-survey-report/

Daimler to buy $23 billion of battery cells for electric car drive
https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN1OA0OG
    “20 billion euros worth of battery cells by 2030” sounds impressive — but it’s only enough for 3 or 4 million EVs.
Quote
… Point is that the number of EVs @Daimler is planning to produce *in total through 2030* is about the same as what @Tesla will be producing *per year* by 2021/22. In other words, #Tesla is a full decade ahead of its competitors.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1072501443582717953

Forget Tesla Buying A GM Factory, Tesla Could Buy GM
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/11/forget-tesla-buying-a-gm-factory-tesla-could-buy-gm/
« Last Edit: December 12, 2018, 03:36:46 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1001 on: December 12, 2018, 02:34:40 PM »
Tesla noted in its Q3 2018 Update Letter that the mid-sized premium sedan market in Europe is “more than twice as big as the same segment in the US.”

Tesla will be shipping 3k Model 3 to Europe every week by Feb 2019: report
Quote
Reports have now emerged from local media that Tesla would be shipping 3,000 vehicles per week to Europe starting February 2019. Belgian news agency Focus-WTV, for one, stated that the electric cars would be arriving every week in the port of Zeebrugge, which is located on the coast of Belgium (special thanks to Tesla owner-enthusiast Hans Noordsij, who tipped Teslarati off about the Focus-WTV report). The local news outlet noted that the electric cars are shipped through the services of transportation firm International Car Operators (ICO), which operates a site on the Zeebrugge docks.

ICO’s operations are particularly notable as the company uses RoRo (roll-on, roll-off) ships, which are capable of loading and unloading cargo in a quick manner. The transportation of Tesla’s vehicles from the United States to Zeebrugge will reportedly take about 15 days, with the route going through the Panama Canal. Upon arriving at the coastal port, the electric cars would be distributed across Tesla’s delivery centers in Europe. ICO is reportedly investing 2.5 million euros ($2.83 million) to accommodate the influx of Tesla’s vehicles as well. …
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-3-europe-3k-per-week-february-2019-report/

A Tesla employee at a prep facility in Norway says the cars received at his location alone is expected to reach 5 digits in Q1....
https://twitter.com/mikeonink/status/1068286854062051328

Edit: for context, Tesla number 30,000 was recently registered in Norway
Source: https://twitter.com/nasalahe/status/1072861867285065729
« Last Edit: December 13, 2018, 02:21:14 PM by Sigmetnow »
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TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1002 on: December 12, 2018, 08:14:37 PM »
Apparently the pre orders for the Porsche Taycan are being snapped up by Tesla owners.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-07/existing-tesla-owners-cant-wait-buy-tesla-killer-porsche-taycan

It seems possible that EV owners are loyal to the concept of EV's, but not necessarily to the Tesla brand.
Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1003 on: December 12, 2018, 09:25:10 PM »
Apparently the pre orders for the Porsche Taycan are being snapped up by Tesla owners.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-12-07/existing-tesla-owners-cant-wait-buy-tesla-killer-porsche-taycan

It seems possible that EV owners are loyal to the concept of EV's, but not necessarily to the Tesla brand.
Terry

that's what i tried to convey months ago when this thread started.

once major manufacturers got up to speed with their EV offers and production Tesla will wane into insignificance (at least car wise)

basically i said a few months back that 2 things are necessary for tesla to survive as a care maker:

a) Elon must hand over the helm (already happened on legal level)

b) Tesla must merge with one of the big players ( i heard about handshakes with Mercedes Benz)

once those two things have happened Tesla will survive as a sub-brand, else it will disappear.

as a little side note to GM, why are so many surprised about their current state?

the company has filed about a decade back and only survived on government crutches.

in fact GM was and is broke, period, everything else is about jobs and a slow meltdown to
reduce the shock to bearable levels.

ahhh..... forgot to re-mention why tesla can't survive:

too many debts piled up, could only survive if nobody else would ever produce EVs. one can simply do the math, debts against minimum interest rates and/or sooner or later, shareholder value and it's easy to see that it's not manageable. other than governments, they won't have a chance to procrastinate their paybacks to the next 30-50 years until money is worth 25% of its current value

 ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1004 on: December 13, 2018, 02:42:07 PM »
Porsche’s promised 20,000 EVs a year is not a threat to Tesla, which will sell five times that many this year of Model S and X alone. Plus about 140,000 Model 3....

20,000 Taycans is about 5% of the number of EVs Tesla will sell in 2019. 

There’s plenty of room for other companies who are starting to dip their toes into the market... which Tesla will dominate well into the next decade, and likely beyond.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1005 on: December 13, 2018, 02:47:40 PM »
Raise your hand if you saw this headline coming from a major financial publication:

Forbes!
How General Motors Can Survive And Compete With Tesla
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenkam/2018/12/11/how-general-motors-can-compete-with-tesla/


Elon Musk Is Getting the Last Laugh on Wall Street After a Wild 2018
Tesla told holders of $920 million of convertible debt due in March that it would settle the conversion with a 50-50 split between cash and stock, a sign that the company could be on the path to consistent profitability and positive cash flow generation going forward.
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2018-12-12/elon-musk-is-getting-last-laugh-on-wall-street-after-wild-2018?__twitter_impression=true


UBS Declares That “Tesla Has Won The Race And Leads The Championship” With EVs
https://cleantechnica.com/2018/12/12/ubs-declares-that-tesla-has-won-the-race-and-leads-the-championship-with-evs/


Quote
Since 2016, $TSLA shorts are down $6.73 billion in mark-to-market losses, which includes $841 million of stock borrow financing expenses.
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1072914937809391619

Shorts are down $450 mm in mark-to-market losses in Dec, down $2.3 bn YTD
https://twitter.com/ihors3/status/1072856742743236608


Zacks investment strategy session top pick is TSLA
https://twitter.com/konrad_bilinski/status/1072797320113201153
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1007 on: December 15, 2018, 12:10:37 AM »
Why Can’t OEMs Dial It Up And Overtake Tesla In The EV Race?
Quote
WHY BIG AUTO JUST CAN’T SQUASH TESLA
In what must be one of the longest headlines in history, Bill MacDonald asks, “Why don’t bigger car companies such as Ford start producing electric cars, eliminating Tesla’s presence in the emerging market, thus claiming said market share for themselves?”

The answer, as MacDonald reveals in a recent article published in Quora, is simple: Because they can’t.
Many have mocked Tesla for “bleeding cash,” although Tesla would probably rather describe what’s been going on as “investing in new products.” As the legacy automakers expand their EV offerings, they will soon be bleeding cash as well, as one after another Big Auto exec has admitted.

Shifting production from ICE vehicles to EVs can’t be done by simply flipping a switch on the assembly line. “New battery and powertrain tech has to be engineered,” MacDonald writes. “Manufacturing for those parts has to be established. Supply chains for new types of raw materials have to be established. Platforms that accommodate efficient EV operation have to be engineered. Branding and marketing strategies have to be figured out. Shipping, sales, and service logistics and training have to be established. And in the end, the product can’t just be any EV. It has to be competitive with a Tesla.”

 
The old-school OEMs can choose to bed down on a rock – build new factories and logistics networks for EVs – or on a hard place – dismantle existing facilities and retool them to produce EVs. Either option is going to require massive new investment. How much? MacDonald figures it will cost “roughly the time and money that Tesla spent, minus some savings for being more efficient about it than Tesla has been. Even if you can do it 30% more efficiently than Tesla has done it, you are still talking about 11 figures [tens of billions].”

If and when the automotive giants do start producing EVs in volume, their woes will be just beginning. The greenie and techie early-adopter buyers have already gone electric, so once the volume market gets rolling, every buyer of an EV will be one less buyer for a dinosaur-burner. That means the automakers will be cannibalizing the ICE business that they are still paying big money to operate. Right now, they’re enjoying huge margins on gas cars, especially trucks and SUVs, but they aren’t able to earn anything like those margins on EVs – indeed they’re lucky to make any profit at all.

MacDonald sees that situation reversing over time. “The minute your EVs become competitive, you will slowly start making less and less money on ICEVs, as the volume drops and economies of scale reverse. The margins on ICE will dry up much faster than the margins on EV will grow. There will be a gap. During this gap, you will still be pouring cash into EV factories and logistics, while your profits have suddenly dried up.”

 
The worst parts of the story for the majors have to do with battery supplies and sales and support logistics. Today, only Tesla and BYD have control over their own battery cell supply chains (although Daimler has taken a step in the right direction with its acquisition of German battery-maker ACCUmotive). In order to secure enough batteries at a competitive price, the legacy brands will have to make massive investments of time as well as money, long before they start seeing much profit from EV sales.

Furthermore, the majors’ business model is based on franchise dealerships, which MacDonald calls “a way of subsidizing the sales and support logistics of making cars, via the heavy cost burden of routine service and non-warranty repair.” But service revenues for EVs are sure to be much lower. As Tesla has shown, they may turn out to be virtually non-existent. How are the automakers going to respond when their dealers lose their most reliable income stream? “If they have a higher cost of routine maintenance than Tesla, their cars will be seen as inferior and people will buy Teslas instead. If they match Tesla’s lack of maintenance [requirements], their sales operations will go out of business and they will have to spend even more money to build a non-franchise sales and service operation just like Tesla had to do.”

In the end, the old guard will end up in the same situation they’ve been knocking Tesla for: “burning cash and being unable to generate profits, staring at a massive chasm of time and money that stands between them and re-established profitability.”

Tesla just barely managed to cross this Valley of Death three times, and the giant automakers, which have access to plenty of capital, should be able to do so as well. But some current trends are ominous. Auto sales are slowly contracting as more people opt not to own vehicles. Trade wars and high tariffs are also hurting, as are the costs of trying to keep up with rising emissions standards in some key auto markets. Some of the smaller and/or less well capitalized brands may disappear.

As MacDonald sums up, the legacy automakers are facing a hard choice: “Keep making ICEs and slowly watch your profits get eaten by Tesla, BYD, Nio, etc, or risk a dangerously expensive crossing through a transition period of cash burn and negative margins.”
https://insideevs.com/oems-cant-overtake-tesla-ev-race/amp/
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1008 on: December 15, 2018, 10:04:53 PM »
Quote
WHY BIG AUTO JUST CAN’T SQUASH TESLA
 
The old-school OEMs can choose to bed down on a rock – build new factories and logistics networks for EVs – or on a hard place – dismantle existing facilities and retool them to produce EVs. Either option is going to require massive new investment. How much? MacDonald figures it will cost “roughly the time and money that Tesla spent, minus some savings for being more efficient about it than Tesla has been. Even if you can do it 30% more efficiently than Tesla has done it, you are still talking about 11 figures [tens of billions].”


Does MacDonald not realize that established automakers already have hybrid and EV lines? In what imaginary world would they have to spend the same amount of capital as Tesla, minus "some savings for being efficient", when they're already have factories building the cars....

Why did InsideEV post an article "authored" by a Tesla accessory company, that is using text from some random dude on quora.  This is beyond embarrassing. The article just some Tesla fanboy speaking as if he's an authority on the subject, but clearly he has no idea what he's talking about. Is InsideEV just posting whatever positive news about Tesla they hear? It's bizarre

zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1009 on: December 15, 2018, 10:18:39 PM »
Quote
The medical license of Muhannad S. Hafi, M.D., one of $TSLA's on-site doctors for its on-campus clinic, described by @ElonMusk as "the absolute best care for our associates," was just revoked by the Medical Board of CA effective December 21, 2018 for a litany of violations.

https://twitter.com/PlainSite/status/1072574242938675200

Amazing

TerryM

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1010 on: December 16, 2018, 01:26:56 AM »
Quote
The medical license of Muhannad S. Hafi, M.D., one of $TSLA's on-site doctors for its on-campus clinic, described by @ElonMusk as "the absolute best care for our associates," was just revoked by the Medical Board of CA effective December 21, 2018 for a litany of violations.

https://twitter.com/PlainSite/status/1072574242938675200

Amazing


It's not easy to lose your medical license in California. Has he been signing off on the Boss's prescriptions?


Tesla workers need a union.
Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1011 on: December 16, 2018, 07:47:57 AM »
Not that it matters much, but not sure whom to believe:

Quote
Dr. Hafi never worked at the Tesla onsite, he never even went there once. He only worked at the Farwell location for Access Omnicare. Get your facts straight.

https://mobile.twitter.com/YvetteBonnet/status/1073384274181517312

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1012 on: December 16, 2018, 01:43:52 PM »
Your periodic reminder that Tesla is more than just a car company:

Tesla Megapack to debut at giant energy project in California
https://electrek.co/2018/12/15/tesla-megapack-debut-giant-energy-storage/

ReflexFunds (@ReflexFunds) 12/15/18, 7:36 AM
This is the 300MW/1,200MWh project won by Dynergy/Vistra and not the previously announced Tesla 182.5MW/730MWh PG&E project. So it looks like Vistra has chosen Tesla to build its battery too, and Tesla will have a total of c.2GWh PG&E battery projects. $TSLA
https://twitter.com/reflexfunds/status/1073919619507912705

ValueAnalyst:  I estimate the total revenue from the two projects to #Tesla Energy at nearly $1B.
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1073964027041193984


ValueAnalyst (@ValueAnalyst1) 12/15/18, 9:56 AM
"Car company"
https://twitter.com/valueanalyst1/status/1073954929050611718
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1013 on: December 16, 2018, 03:44:28 PM »
Not that it matters much, but not sure whom to believe:

Quote
Dr. Hafi never worked at the Tesla onsite, he never even went there once. He only worked at the Farwell location for Access Omnicare. Get your facts straight.

https://mobile.twitter.com/YvetteBonnet/status/1073384274181517312

Are you being sarcastic? I honestly can't tell. You posted some random twitter user with 50 followers.

Anyways.....

https://mobile.twitter.com/PlainSite/status/1072664141477937152

Notice who it's signed by and where the clinic is located.


From the nurse that used to work there:
Quote
There was a plaque with Dr. Hafi's name on his office door at the offsite clinic!  Dont let the short time fool you...nobody works at this place long....even sexual offenders.  Tells even more about Besh and AOC.  Dr Besh has no values.  No morals. He was aware.

gerontocrat

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1014 on: December 17, 2018, 09:07:50 PM »
There is TESLA, and there is Musk. Is there still synergy there, or is Musk becoming a real problem? Here is an opinion piece from https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/421627-trouble-at-tesla-how-the-company-can-survive-elon-musk

by...
David P. Weber, an attorney and certified fraud examiner. He is the former assistant inspector general for investigations at the SEC. He teaches ethics, corporate governance and fraud examination in the MBA, MS and undergraduate programs at the University of Maryland’s Robert H. Smith School of Business. He drives a Tesla Model 3.

Note that the man wants TESLA to succeed
Quote
.....CBS’ “60 Minutes” program aired an interview with Musk, in which Musk spoke about his ongoing compliance with his U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) consent order; his supervision by the board of directors and newly installed chairperson; and his views on the SEC in specific.

It’s a must watch for any student of corporate governance — on "Opposite Day."

Musk made fairly clear that he is not in compliance with his SEC consent orders. Required after the infamous $420 acquisition tweet, which turned out to be intentionally false, Musk was supposed to turn over his Twitter account for review before posting tweets concerning Tesla that could result in market movement. Did he? No.

When asked, in essence, if this complied with the SEC consent order, Musk responded, “Well, I guess we might make some mistakes. Who knows?” He followed that up by stating, “I want to be clear. I do not respect the SEC. I do not respect them.”

Elon, here is a tip: Waive red meat at a guard dog, and you might get bitten; even if the SEC is a poodle

With regards to why Robyn Denholm, the new chairman of the board, has not tightened control over Musk’s impulsive conduct, he noted that he hand-picked her and that it would be “not realistic” for her to control the board: “I am the largest shareholder in the company. And I can just call for a shareholder vote and get anything done that I want,” he said.

His view stands in stark contrast to the law, which views him, as both CEO and controlling shareholder, as a fiduciary to the remainder of the shareholders, under longstanding Delaware law, the state where Tesla is incorporated.

The board of directors, and Denholm in particular, need to enhance their oversight over Musk. That includes prohibiting him, for example, from getting into Twitter fights with the press, making false statements of mergers or stating on television that he refuses to comply with a federal court order governing his conduct.

They also need to comply with federal court orders. More importantly, they must get their CEO to become a true leader, a person who leads by example, such as by treating his employees with respect and showing that his conduct is beyond reproach. 

Doing so here would go a long way to supercharge Tesla’s future.
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Archimid

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1015 on: December 17, 2018, 11:11:49 PM »
The magic of editing.

Quote
With regards to why Robyn Denholm, the new chairman of the board, has not tightened control over Musk’s impulsive conduct, he noted that he hand-picked her and that it would be “not realistic” for her to control the board: “I am the largest shareholder in the company. And I can just call for a shareholder vote and get anything done that I want,” he said.

His view stands in stark contrast to the law, which views him, as both CEO and controlling shareholder, as a fiduciary to the remainder of the shareholders, under longstanding Delaware law, the state where Tesla is incorporated.

The CBS interview edited out the statement that invalidates the legal concern of the expert who supposedly wants Tesla to succeed. Here is the full quote that CBS edited.

“I am the largest shareholder in the company. And I can just call for a shareholder vote and get anything done that I want I mean that’s not realistic because I am the largest shareholder in the company and a very high percentage of the shareholders support me and the company. So essentially I could just call for a shareholder vote and get anything done that I want provided I could get support of at least a 1/3 of the other shareholders, which is likely. At the end of the day the shareholders control the company.”


Elon is the leader of Tesla and got Tesla to where it is today. He has done such an excellent job that not only Tesla is growing at breakneck speed and its profitable, but it is actually accomplishing its primary mission of accelerating the advent of sustainable Energy.

If Elon leaves Tesla then Tesla will be swallowed by corporate interests and be more profitable than ever, but it won't grow and more importantly it will stop the acceleration of renewable energy.
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1016 on: December 18, 2018, 01:34:03 AM »
Another interesting point is that VAG are investing nearly €30bn in batteries for their EV's.  In a factory?  No, in buying batteries for their EV's from other suppliers.

This leaves VAG as a consumer of battery technology and Tesla a producer.  It means VAG cannot hope to compete with Tesla on battery tech because they don't own it and can't use it for anything other than producing competing vehicles to Tesla.

This may fit the time honoured model of ICE vehicle manufacturing of JIT delivery.  But as batteries are even more important to EV than engines are to ICE, this approach is going to be limiting in the extreme.

Leaving Tesla, again, a leader in the pack.

I can't see this changing any time in the next 2 years but I'll be watching anyway.  All the competitors are going to have to spend even more than Tesla did because they will have to ramp up faster and to a larger scale.  At the same time Tesla will be ramping up through profits on vehicles sold in a maturing market.

When Google started producing better search results than Alta Vista, there were those who believed the "incumbent" would rally and drive Google out.  That belief is a foot note in history and Alphabet is still growing.

Physical manufacturing may be harder to crack than software search engines, but the principle is similar.
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1017 on: December 18, 2018, 02:56:39 AM »
Tesla and Volkswagen are both constructing the packs, but leaving the production of cells to other manufacturers. The only difference is Tesla has a close relationship with Panasonic, who leases Tesla's gigafactory.  I'm pretty sure the cell construction and chemistry are all Panasonic, who have custom built them to Tesla's specification.

I think the Germans are actually ahead of the game when it comes to cells. There have been massive public investments and big capital being spent by the car companies for battery factories in both Europe and China.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1018 on: December 18, 2018, 05:43:25 PM »
Despite all the Sturm and Drang, Tesla employees rated Musk 77 on a scale of 0-100.  SpaceX employees gave Musk an average score of 83.

Elon Musk voted by SpaceX and Tesla employees as one of 2018's Best CEOs
Quote
Among the CEOs that were considered, SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk came out as No. 19 in the survey’s overall rankings. Musk, apart from GM CEO Mary Barra (who was No.49) were the only CEOs from the auto sector that made it to Comparably‘s list. Musk was also ranked as the 14th most sought-after tech CEO, among 29 chief executives that made it to the Top 50 rankings. Overall, Musk’s 19th overall and 14th in tech rank are quite impressive, particularly as he did not make it to the website’s rankings last year at all. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-spacex-tesla-employees-best-ceo-2018/
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1019 on: December 18, 2018, 06:23:11 PM »
Almost as if they are proud of their hard work and accomplishments, as they should be. By reading the concern trolling one gets the impression Tesla employees are miserable slaves, but the reality is that they are top people that believe in Tesla’s mission.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1020 on: December 18, 2018, 06:31:43 PM »
Almost as if they are proud of their hard work and accomplishments, as they should be. By reading the concern trolling one gets the impression Tesla employees are miserable slaves, but the reality is that they are top people that believe in Tesla’s mission.

And many have willingly taken a pay cut from their previous employment to do so.
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magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1021 on: December 18, 2018, 11:05:14 PM »
Despite all the Sturm and Drang, Tesla employees rated Musk 77 on a scale of 0-100.  SpaceX employees gave Musk an average score of 83.

Elon Musk voted by SpaceX and Tesla employees as one of 2018's Best CEOs
Quote
Among the CEOs that were considered, SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk came out as No. 19 in the survey’s overall rankings. Musk, apart from GM CEO Mary Barra (who was No.49) were the only CEOs from the auto sector that made it to Comparably‘s list. Musk was also ranked as the 14th most sought-after tech CEO, among 29 chief executives that made it to the Top 50 rankings. Overall, Musk’s 19th overall and 14th in tech rank are quite impressive, particularly as he did not make it to the website’s rankings last year at all. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-spacex-tesla-employees-best-ceo-2018/

LOL i've never seen my staff vote against me either ;)

perhaps it's purposeful what you're doing but i still would read more from your usually good stuff if it were not for the total one-sidedness.

as i said, because this is necessary to build a counterpart to those who deny everything that does not fit their purpose but then i'm not of the opinion to do the same on the other side adds to credibility.

only who has a critical eye on all sides is ultimately credible.

i know i said similar things before and will continue because as much as some fight for batteries and others fight for nuclear and others for what have you, i fight for balanced approaches, not 100% pro or 100% against but objectivity as a goal (hard to achieve i know)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1022 on: December 19, 2018, 03:59:17 PM »
Despite all the Sturm and Drang, Tesla employees rated Musk 77 on a scale of 0-100.  SpaceX employees gave Musk an average score of 83.

Elon Musk voted by SpaceX and Tesla employees as one of 2018's Best CEOs
Quote
Among the CEOs that were considered, SpaceX and Tesla CEO Elon Musk came out as No. 19 in the survey’s overall rankings. Musk, apart from GM CEO Mary Barra (who was No.49) were the only CEOs from the auto sector that made it to Comparably‘s list. Musk was also ranked as the 14th most sought-after tech CEO, among 29 chief executives that made it to the Top 50 rankings. Overall, Musk’s 19th overall and 14th in tech rank are quite impressive, particularly as he did not make it to the website’s rankings last year at all. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/elon-musk-spacex-tesla-employees-best-ceo-2018/

LOL i've never seen my staff vote against me either ;)
...

With you standing over them, or their jobs dependent in it, I wouldn’t be surprised. ;)

Given all the negativity written about Musk and his companies (so extensively portrayed in this thread), you’d think everyone must really hate working there and it must be the worst workplace ever.  But if that were the case, why do his employees rate him so much higher than the employees of the CEOs listed below?  Or, could it be that the haters are a tiny minority, and their complaints are magnified to suit others’ purposes?

40.Daniel Schulman, PayPal (San Jose, CA)

41. Frederick Smith, FedEx (Memphis, TN)

42. Richard Fairbank, Capital One (McLean, VA)

43. Arne Sorenson, Marriott (Bethseda, MD)

44. Gene Hall, Gartner (Stamford, CT)

45. Gail Boudreaux, Anthem, Inc. (Indianapolis, IN)

46. Bruce Cerullo, Nordic Consulting (Madison, WI)

47. Brian Roberts, Comcast (Philadelphia, PA)

48. Scott Wagner, GoDaddy (Scottsdale, AZ)

49. Mary Barra, General Motors (Detroit, MI)

50. William McDermott, SAP (Newtown Square, PA)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1023 on: December 20, 2018, 04:56:15 PM »
Tesla Gigafactory 3 in China is progressing '1 yr ahead of schedule,' says local reports
Quote
One factor that appears to have escaped Tesla’s critics, though, was that the company is seemingly enjoying the full support of the Chinese government. And in a country such as China, the support of the government matters much. With government backing, even projects deemed too ambitious become feasible. Considering the progress in Gigafactory 3’s Shanghai site so far, this appears to be the case, as construction in the company’s 864,885-square meter plot of land in the Lingang Industrial Zone is already underway.

Last week, drone footage taken of the site revealed that workers have already completed laying the perimeter fence around Gigafactory 3. The progress of the battery and electric car factory’s construction was emphasized even more in recent reports from local Chinese media, who provided some details on Gigafactory 3’s development. One of these reports stated that the facility, which is on its first stage of construction, is currently one year ahead of schedule (credit is due to Tesla community member vincent13031925 for translating and summarizing the local news report’s content on Twitter). 

This is not all, though, as local media also stated that the price of Model 3 and Model Y — the two vehicles that will be produced in the facility — can be reduced by 1/3 if Tesla utilizes local supply chains and labor. Reiterating previous reports, local Chinese media have also stated that an assembly line for the Model 3, the first vehicle that will be built in Gigafactory 3, is expected to be ready for operation in the second half of 2019.
...
So far, Tesla appears to be operating well under the approving eye of the Chinese government. Permits for the project were quickly filed and approved, and local Shanghai banks were reported to have easily granted low-interest loans for the facility’s construction. The local government seemed to have given its blessing when Tesla made its bid for the plot of land in the Lingang Industrial Zone as well, since the electric car maker’s bid went completely unchallenged. Overall, it almost seems like China is favorably looking to Tesla as a company that can lead a transition towards the widespread adoption of electric cars. As such, it is doing what it can to support the company. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-gigafactory-3-china-1-year-ahead-of-schedule-local-reports/
« Last Edit: December 20, 2018, 05:04:33 PM by Sigmetnow »
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NeilT

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1024 on: December 21, 2018, 12:11:35 AM »
Of course the Chinese government would be looking to clone the technology from Tesla into local Chinese firms so they can really get their EV business off the ground...

How this will play out over time is another matter.  But in the short-mid term it should play well for Tesla.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1025 on: December 22, 2018, 10:03:01 AM »
Is there any information on how many model 3 tesla have caught fire so far?
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1026 on: December 26, 2018, 08:11:21 PM »
Ignore The FUD: Tesla Was Auto Industry’s Leader In 2018
Quote
Much of this year was marked by a massive smear campaign against Elon Musk and his electric car company Tesla. FUD was at an all-time high. Ignore it. If you cut through the clutter, and instead, according to Wired, “If you focus on Tesla the company, then 2018 has been very good indeed.”

Although Tesla won’t release official figures until the new year, Kelley Blue Book estimates the company sold about 160,000 cars (including Models S, 3, and X) through the end of November. “Last year was around 50,000, so it’s more than triple the sales,” says Kelley Blue Book analyst Tim Fleming.

The current price point puts the newest Tesla sedan in KBB’s “luxury” segment, but that hasn’t stopped people from buying the Model 3. “It will be the top-selling luxury vehicle this year,” Fleming says. That’s against all luxury vehicles, including SUVs. The next best-selling car, the Mercedes C-Class, comes in seventh. Moreover, Tesla sold 2.5 times more Model 3 vehicles than BMW sold 3 Series.

And how does Tesla compare with its automotive brethren on Wall Street? According to Bloomberg, “Stocks of automakers in China, France, Germany, India, Japan, South Korea and the U.S. are down as much as 36 percent… Only one of the world’s 10 most valuable car companies is setting sales records and outperforming the equity market. That would be Tesla Inc., proving that the zero-emission future works.

“How is the rest of the industry, still overwhelmingly committed to fossil fuel, doing? Daimler AG, the parent of Mercedes, lost a third of its value. Porsche Automobil Holding SE declined 23 percent. BMW AG, which brands its product ‘the ultimate driving machine,’ made stockholders 17 percent poorer. Even Toyota Motor Corp., the global No. 1 making everything from the popular hybrid Prius to the esteemed Lexus luxury line, is down 3 percent. All of the giants, including General Motors Co., Ford Motor Co. and Fiat Chrysler Automobiles SA, reported minuscule sales growth the past five years, a major reason why they are investor also-rans,” notes Bloomberg.

“Tesla became No. 3 in market capitalization among the 20 largest automakers with a total return (income plus appreciation) dwarfing the few that are up on the year when the industry average was a loss of 13 percent. Tesla also produced the greatest risk-adjusted return, which is the market’s way of saying that Tesla investors received the most compensation for price fluctuations,” according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

With Tesla’s planned expansion in European and Asian markets in 2019, Forbes says, “As major automotive makers batten down hatches for the stormy financial times ahead, U.S. upstart electric carmaker Tesla Inc is set to prosper in 2019.” Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois agrees, “Tesla is one of the few (manufacturers) likely to grow earnings in 2019-20.”

According to Inverse, “next year’s rollout to other continents will send sales surging as more consumers get on board.” Scott Shepard, senior analyst at Navigant Research says, “The effect here should be considerable. The Model 3 roll-out in North America made it the fastest growing plug-in vehicle market in 2018.” Nevertheless, Shepard notes, “China is a big market for Tesla, but China’s market is already so big that the Tesla effect on it will not be as dramatic as in North America or Europe.”
===
Source: Wired, Bloomberg, Forbes, Inverse; Video: Fox Business
https://insideevs.com/tesla-ignore-fud-1-automaker-2018/amp/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1027 on: December 26, 2018, 08:13:20 PM »
Jess (@TeslaJess)12/26/18, 1:56 AM
Quote
In one year, our #Tesla #Model3 has improved the vehicles functionality by more than a model year's worth.

*Better braking
*Side view on UI
*Nav / AP
*Summon
*Heated seats
*Climate while away
*Etc, etc.

How has your ICE improved this year?
https://twitter.com/teslajess/status/1077820343908151296

Edit:
Quote
@Tesla @elonmusk 5 out 6 homes on our cul-de-sac have a #TeslaModel3 and they’re powered by the ☀️! That’s a #Tesla #CultDeSac that #ElonMusk would be proud of! PS: We’ll get the 6th this year! Happy [Boxing] Day! #DoGoodHaveFun
https://twitter.com/breastcar/status/1077872891285233664
Image below.  :)

« Last Edit: December 26, 2018, 08:24:32 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1028 on: December 27, 2018, 07:22:35 PM »

Jess (@TeslaJess)12/26/18, 1:56 AM
Quote
In one year, our #Tesla #Model3 has improved the vehicles functionality by more than a model year's worth.

*Better braking
*Side view on UI
*Nav / AP
*Summon
*Heated seats
*Climate while away
*Etc, etc.

How has your ICE improved this year?
https://twitter.com/teslajess/status/1077820343908151296

* My braking didn't need improvement :)

* Unemployment Insurance isn't to be looked at sideways ???
* Navigation system was updated to include 2018 changes  ;)
* My adjustable heated seats operate independently of my rear view heaters  8)
* My ICE never requires Climate while away  ;D
* Ect, ect - Mine can drive 1,000 Km before requiring additional energy  ::)
* BONUS - My ICE didn't rank 27th out of the 29 brands tested for reliability  :o

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2018/10/24/tesla-reliability-tumbles-consumer-reports-survey/1748024002/

Terry

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1029 on: December 27, 2018, 09:26:15 PM »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1030 on: December 27, 2018, 10:06:43 PM »
Quote
* My braking didn't need improvement 
How do you know?  No one was complaining about braking before Tesla took Consumer Reports’ criticism to heart, and improved braking on all Model 3, without owners needing to do anything. 

Edit:  Also: Brake pads on a Tesla literally never need to be replaced for lifetime of the car.
https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1078010341651492865

Quote
* Unemployment Insurance isn't to be looked at sideways
  “User Interface” - does your insurance provide your car with displays of the surroundings?  And, Teslas have the built-in ability to save dash-cam footage onto a USB.

Quote
* Navigation system was updated to include 2018 changes   
Teslas were updated to know which highway lane the car is in, and drive itself on highways through highway interchanges, including dealing with merges, merging vehicles, and changing lanes to pass slower traffic.

Quote
* My adjustable heated seats operate independently of my rear view heaters   
Tesla drivers can issue fart sounds from a selected seat on demand, using a button on the steering wheel or the turn signal stalk.  Beat that. ;D

Make sure you get your emissions tested immediately!!
https://twitter.com/guytesla/status/1075225212877033472

Quote
* My ICE never requires Climate while away
Anyone who has pets or food or other temperature-sensitive items in the car, particularly in extreme heat or cold, appreciates this feature.

Quote
* Ect, ect - Mine can drive 1,000 Km before requiring additional energy
How often do you need to travel 1,000 km?  Teslas can add energy overnight while you sleep, so you always wake up to a full “tank.”  And do it with green energy that doesn’t contribute to greenhouse gas emissions, or pollute your neighborhood.  No oil changes or gas station stops.

Quote
* BONUS - My ICE didn't rank 27th out of the 29 brands tested for reliability   
Model 3 was named vehicle of the year by The Detroit News
https://www.detroitnews.com/story/opinion/columnists/henry-payne/2018/12/26/detroit-news-vehicle-year/2379185002/


« Last Edit: December 27, 2018, 10:59:25 PM by Sigmetnow »
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jai mitchell

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1031 on: December 28, 2018, 04:30:07 PM »
This very interesting presentation shows that the current U.S. auto market in ICE vehicles is currently being suppressed by the introduction of electric vehicles (in general) and (specifically) a viable lower cost Tesla Model 3 that is forthcoming. 

They look at the adoption rates of new technologies and then compare them with the current sales of EVs.



They say that it looks like we are already starting to see reductions in ICE vehicles in the u.s. as people are delaying their new car purchase to get an EV in the near term.  They project that we will see increased sales of USED ICE vehicles as this transformation takes hold. 

Happy New Year!

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1032 on: December 29, 2018, 09:56:04 PM »
“Tesla is one of the few [OEMs] likely to grow earnings in 2019-20.”

Forbes:  Tesla Could Be A Lone Success In 2019
Quote
As major automotive makers batten down hatches for the stormy financial times ahead, U.S. upstart electric carmaker Tesla Inc is set to prosper in 2019.

Tesla has finally taken control of its Model 3 production in the U.S. and investors see big benefits to the bottom line. Long-term investors have now started worrying about Model 3 profit margins being undermined as Tesla satisfies well-heeled early adopters who want to buy top of the range, no expense spared, and turns to sell cheaper versions.

But Tesla Model 3 sales to Europe will start in 2019, and that promises rich pickings, with sales expected to reach 100,000, and much of them top of the range versions with fat profits.

Investment researcher Jefferies reckons Tesla is ideally poised to take advantage of the long awaited upsurge in electric car sales.
“Tesla is one of the few (manufacturers) likely to grow earnings in 2019-20,” said Jefferies analyst Philippe Houchois.

“Unrealistic goals have been rebased. Global BEV (battery electric vehicle) share should accelerate in 2019-20. Tesla should continue to stand out with broader price points, battery security of supply, product edge and a brand that transcends the volume/premium divide,” Houchois said. ...
https://www.forbes.com/sites/neilwinton/2018/12/19/tesla-could-be-a-lone-success-in-2019-as-european-model-3-sales-catch-fire/

Germany:
Boersenmillionaer.de (@BM_Premium_BB) 12/28/18, 3:02 PM
#tesla now sold more than 2000 #model3 in germany since 21/12/2018!
https://twitter.com/bm_premium_bb/status/1078742935506771970
[Meaning they have configured their car on-line to initiate their purchase, and paid the order fee.]

Tilman Winkler (@TilmanWinkler)  https://twitter.com/tilmanwinkler/status/1078786897290371072
has a lengthy thread or two about German subsidies and tax advantages which occur in 2019 that are probably holding many Germans back from ordering for another week or so.  So these early numbers are likely the start of the tide there, not the crest of it.
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Neven

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1033 on: December 30, 2018, 04:54:52 PM »
They say that it looks like we are already starting to see reductions in ICE vehicles in the u.s. as people are delaying their new car purchase to get an EV in the near term.  They project that we will see increased sales of USED ICE vehicles as this transformation takes hold. 

Happy New Year!

That was a very interesting video, but they didn't discuss two things: the price of batteries, and what Big Auto and Big Oil will do to prolong the status quo as long as possible (for instance, by taking out Tesla).
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1034 on: December 30, 2018, 06:43:43 PM »
They say that it looks like we are already starting to see reductions in ICE vehicles in the u.s. as people are delaying their new car purchase to get an EV in the near term.  They project that we will see increased sales of USED ICE vehicles as this transformation takes hold. 

Happy New Year!

That was a very interesting video, but they didn't discuss two things: the price of batteries, and what Big Auto and Big Oil will do to prolong the status quo as long as possible (for instance, by taking out Tesla).

I’m sure Big Auto and Big Oil would like to take out Tesla, but I think it is too late for that, now.  Their efforts weren’t successful when Tesla was smaller and more vulnerable, and now the EV genie is out of the bottle — people want them, and so do governments of polluted cities, states and countries.

What can BA/BO do besides spread FUD (which hasn’t kept Tesla from reaching record after record), and try to end EV subsidies/tax advantages (which tends to hurt Big Auto as well).  Musk has often said that ending all EV subsidies would be beneficial to Tesla, as it would level the playing field.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m sure they will try.  But the China government and people love Tesla (even Model X - themed weddings are a big thing there these days), and EU countries are jumping over each other to win the next Tesla gigafactory.  New huge utility battery projects are in the works all over the world.  And Tesla roofs are just taking off.  2019 will make it clear the tipping point has already passed, and local signs of oil decline will start to be noticed.  Big Oil will have bigger things than Tesla to worry about.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1035 on: January 02, 2019, 05:30:38 PM »
Tesla Q4 2018 Vehicle Production & Deliveries, Also Announcing $2,000 Price Reduction in US
Quote
... In 2018, we delivered a total of 245,240 vehicles: 145,846 Model 3 and 99,394 Model S and X. To put our growth into perspective, we delivered almost as many vehicles in 2018 as we did in all prior years combined.


Our Q4 Model 3 deliveries were limited to mid- and higher-priced variants, cash/loan transactions, and North American customers only. More than three quarters of Model 3 orders in Q4 came from new customers, rather than reservation holders.

There remain significant opportunities to continue to grow Model 3 sales by expanding to international markets, introducing lower-priced variants and offering leasing. International deliveries in Europe and China will start in February 2019. Expansion of Model 3 sales to other markets, including with a right-hand drive variant, will occur later in 2019.


1,010 Model 3 vehicles and 1,897 Model S and X vehicles were in transit to customers at the end of Q4, and will be delivered in early Q1 2019. Our inventory levels remain the smallest in the automotive industry, and we were able to reduce vehicles in transit to customers by significantly improving our logistics system in North America.


Moving beyond the success of Q4, we are taking steps to partially absorb the reduction of the federal EV tax credit (which, as of January 1st, dropped from $7,500 to $3,750). Starting today, we are reducing the price of Model S, Model X and Model 3 vehicles in the U.S. by $2,000. [U.S.] Customers can apply to receive the $3,750 federal tax credit for new deliveries starting on January 1, 2019, and may also be eligible for several state and local electric vehicle and utility incentives, which range up to $4,000. Combined with the reduced costs of maintenance and of charging a Tesla versus paying for gas at the pump – which can result in up to $100 per month or more in savings – this means our vehicles are even more affordable than similarly priced gasoline vehicles.

Tesla’s achievements in 2018 likely represent the biggest single-year growth in the history of the automotive industry. We started the year with a delivery run rate of about 120,000 vehicles per year and ended it at more than 350,000 vehicles per year – an increase of almost 3X. As a result, we’re starting to make a tangible impact on accelerating the world to sustainable energy. Additionally, 2018 was the first time in decades that an American car – the Model 3 – was the best-selling premium vehicle in the U.S. for the full year, with U.S. sales of Model 3 roughly double those of the runner up.

We want to thank our customers, suppliers, investors, and especially our employees, who worked so hard to accomplish this.
http://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-q4-2018-vehicle-production-deliveries-also-announcing-2000
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1036 on: January 02, 2019, 08:06:26 PM »
Hey sigmetnow, do your remember when you and a couple others were trying to convince me that the tax credit was NOT a subsidy? Strange that tesla all of a sudden reduced the cost of their cars as soon as the credit expired. It's almost as if companies use consumer credits to increase their profits. Weird. But that's still not subsidy right? Please help me understand how this all works again.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1037 on: January 02, 2019, 08:43:30 PM »
Let’s revisit the concept of scaling production resulting in lower price per unit.

Quote
Tesla will sell 350k cars in 2019. That’s going to bring in around $25 bil in rev. If they lower the cost of the cars by $2k that’s $700 mil. That a 3% reduction in rev. From expectation. While scaling will save them thousands a car. Margins are not affected.
https://twitter.com/gerberkawasaki/status/1080478816546349061

$2,000 price reduction in U.S.:
- Because they can
- Because as production rate increases, cost per car decreases (consistently over 1,300 cars/day in early December, closing in on 1,400 per a paint line employee)
- Because new high-speed battery production lines are being installed, also lowering cost
- Because Tesla has a heart, and lowering its price is in keeping with its mission to accelerate the adoption of clean energy vehicles
- Because over 3,000 cars/week will be going to Europe and China in Q1.
- Expect further price reductions in 2019 and 2020
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zizek

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1038 on: January 02, 2019, 11:03:55 PM »
Management and the board all got together and decided to decrease the price. They said:
"hello fellow board members, we may have been on the verge of bankruptcy earlier this year, we are still billions of dollars in debt, have serious cash flow problems, are having difficult time raising cash, our stock price is incredibly volatile, we have huge conversions coming up. But let's decrease the price of our car. We found efficiencies in our production line, so let's reduce our profits. Just for funsies. We're such nice guys. It has nothing to do with the credit expiry and lack of demand."

You are delusional

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1039 on: January 02, 2019, 11:30:03 PM »
@ zizek  If you have recordings or notes of the Board of Tesla saying those things, then ok.  Otherwise it's you who are delusional.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1040 on: January 02, 2019, 11:42:35 PM »
I think it's pretty clear that in Q4 Tesla was demand-constrained rather than supply-constrained. I've been expecting this for the past month or two, based on several factors including the short wait times from order to delivery.
I am certain the US price cut was done to avoid a further drop in demand. Had the company still been supply-constrained, a good chance that the price cut would not have happened, despite margin improvements.
I still expect an extreme drop in US sales unless the 35k version appears, or leasing is offered.
I think this doesn't bode well for Tesla as a whole. Demand tapered off  much quicker that one would have guessed based on initial numbers
The same might happen in Europe and the rest of the world, again unless the 35k version appears quickly. But even that may noy buy the company more than a year - just my gut feeling. So end-2019 or mid-2020 a serious crisis could develop.
What could improve Tesla's future prospects is the model Y. Should it have a "normal" design, and should it appear quickly on the scene, with a low price point, it could prove to be a longer-lasting hit, as sedans are out of favour while SUVs/CUVs are more in general demand.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1041 on: January 02, 2019, 11:46:24 PM »
@ zizek  If you have recordings or notes of the Board of Tesla saying those things, then ok.  Otherwise it's you who are delusional.

comeon, that was sarcastic and quite obviously so and by no means literally speaking.

we all know when companies who are not profitable lower their prices, it's quite common and some know what it means and others don't depending on the viewing angle or bias if you prefer that term.

not that i think that the ad hominem part was necessary or is a good think to call out adjectives of that kind but the meaning is clear and true, the real reason is to keep sales up or boost them.

we can all watch what will happen not so far out when all other great automakers start to seriously serve the market, it has already begun and they (tesla) are already feeling it for sure.
« Last Edit: January 02, 2019, 11:51:31 PM by magnamentis »

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1042 on: January 03, 2019, 03:48:18 AM »
Quote
I think it's pretty clear that in Q4 Tesla was demand-constrained rather than supply-constrained.

I agree, specially towards the end of the year. This result seems to me like the first hint at what demand will look like going forward. I like what I see. More than 75% of the sales were new orders.

63,150 x .75 = 47,362.5.

13 weeks in a quarter that's 3,643 new US only and high end only Model 3 a week.

But 3.6k is probably not an accurate number for the demand of Model 3 since reservations were probably higher at the beginning of the quarter and December having mostly new orders. But I've seen no real info on that.

Quote
I am certain the US price cut was done to avoid a further drop in demand. Had the company still been supply-constrained, a good chance that the price cut would not have happened, despite margin improvements.


I'm surprised by this price cut.  I don't think it makes much sense as a demand driver. To drive you launch special sales and perks.  I think this was done because this is the mission of Tesla. To accelerate the advent of the electric car. Cheaper car means more people can buy them.


Quote
I still expect an extreme drop in US sales unless the 35k version appears, or leasing is offered.

I expect a small drop in US sales in January. If the market continues its downward trend, then the drop will remain until the Black Model 3 comes out. International sales will make up for the drop and then some.

The key is the Black Model 3. The 35k Model 3. When the Black Model 3 drops that's when the fun begins.

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I think this doesn't bode well for Tesla as a whole.

I think it does, pending financial numbers.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1043 on: January 03, 2019, 05:58:45 PM »
Rob Maurer in his Tesla Daily Unofficial Podcast recently discussed Tesla Demand Concerns. The first part of the episode examines the stock price amidst the macro environment, but the second half:

He said, (paraphrasing): 
Tesla is trying to do something in Q4 it will very likely never have to do again:  deliver 5,000 to 6,000 highly-optioned Model 3 a week into just one region:  North America. 

Even when the Model 3 successfully ramps to 10,000 a week, and half continue to be sold in NA, Tesla will not need to sell that many high-end Model 3 as it did in Q4 2018 when it had no availability of the standard range and standard interior.

Tesla Daily: Tesla News and Analysis
Dec 20, 2018 episode.  Above discussion is @ ~5:00
https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/tesla-daily-tesla-news-analysis/id1273643094
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1044 on: January 03, 2019, 07:52:25 PM »
Auto stock returns in 2018...
Tesla: +7%
Toyota: -9%
GM: -15%
Fiat: -19%
Nissan: -20%
Volkswagen: -21%
Honda: -22%
Ford: -34%
Daimler: -34%
Tata: -63%
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1080324069822816256
Image below.
(Tata Motors owns Jaguar [I-PACE])

 Some more from the world largest car market:
Brilliance; -72%
Great Wall Motor: -52%
Geely: -49%
Dong Feng: -22%
SAIC: -11%
https://twitter.com/globalstockpick/status/1080451758646714369
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1045 on: January 03, 2019, 08:09:14 PM »
Top-heavy ( ;) ) chart for 2018 EV sales in the U.S.
Full chart: https://insideevs.com/monthly-plug-in-sales-scorecard/
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magnamentis

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1046 on: January 03, 2019, 09:55:02 PM »
63'150 Model 3 sold

64'900 Model 3 sales expected

the missing number is probably to the partly faked Q3 boost, sure no-one wants to remember but that's about what i said, Q3 was tuned and the since no super recorded saved them Q4 was behind expectations as much.

again, i say it each time, i like the product but they can't survive in the shark's basin with their
business practices (conduct)

soon all major players like VW, Audi, MB, BMW, Jaguar will give them "saures" and ultimately one of them will take over tesla's car department.

my main complaint about this discussion is that so many headlines from either side are used to proof  a point and very few basic numbers and business predictions based on longterm experience are thoroughly discussed.

what i mean is that long-term only top managed businesses survive, no matter what size and market share they currently hold and with longerm experience i mean all the many examples of great products and company that went down the river (merged or went bust) due to not sufficientl skilled and serious management and mangement errors and/or PR problems.

i hope that all this post is not offending to anyone should not be but i predict humbly that withing 5-6 years tesla auto-branch will be in the hands of a big global player and it won't be a US-Company that will own it (the branch)

let's look and see, game on and till then i will mostly lurk to stay current on the matter.


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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1047 on: January 03, 2019, 10:56:32 PM »
May I ask who expected 64,900? If I remember correctly the guidance given by Tesla was "more than Q3" and it was.
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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1048 on: January 04, 2019, 01:44:34 AM »
The Toronto Star is a newspaper with a definite leftist bias. Their take on Tesla and Musk is less than flattering.

https://www.thestar.com/business/opinion/2018/12/30/elon-musk-makes-it-hard-to-keep-rooting-for-tesla.html

They point to possible ties between Musk and Ellison prior to his ascendancy to Tesla's board.

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Re: Tesla glory/failure
« Reply #1049 on: January 04, 2019, 02:08:48 AM »
Auto stock returns in 2018...
Tesla: +7%
Toyota: -9%
GM: -15%
Fiat: -19%
Nissan: -20%
Volkswagen: -21%
Honda: -22%
Ford: -34%
Daimler: -34%
Tata: -63%
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1080324069822816256
Image below.
(Tata Motors owns Jaguar [I-PACE])

 Some more from the world largest car market:
Brilliance; -72%
Great Wall Motor: -52%
Geely: -49%
Dong Feng: -22%
SAIC: -11%
https://twitter.com/globalstockpick/status/1080451758646714369
It didn't take Tesla long to lose that +7% - and more.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-02/tesla-tumbles-after-model-3-deliveries-miss-company-announces-price-cuts

The above also discusses the 63,150 M3 deliveries vs. the expected, absorbing the tax credit and American price cuts.

TSLA Closed 2018 at $332,80 and now stands at $299,08

The 10K cars/wk that Musk promised back in 2017 have yet to appear. Are we still experiencing "production hell"
Terry

P.S. With the huge downturn in delivered cars throughout the US, how was it possible that Elon couldn't find available auto carrier trucks?