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weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1250 on: June 20, 2019, 09:33:33 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 19 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,136,524  km2
               
Total Area         
 8,136,524    km2      
-273,462    km2   <   2010's average.
-419,855    k   <   2018
-938,256    k   <   2000's average.
         
Area loss 66 k, 43 K LESS than the 2010's average loss of 109 k on this day.
Total area 2nd lowest (again) (16 k less than 2016, and 263 k greater than 2012).
2012 is still the front runner as regards area now.

Looking at the raw daily data, 2019 is now in third place with respect to sea ice area. For 6.19, NSIDC sea ice area has a daily value of 8,107,524 kilometers squared.

2019 now has more than 57,800 square kilometers of sea ice area than 2007, and 263,273 square kilometers more than 2012.

Pagophilus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1251 on: June 20, 2019, 11:46:19 PM »

Quite a lot of hyperbole on the melting season thread on expected sea ice collapse not yet showing in the data NSIDC and AMSR2 data.


Perhaps a graph showing the number of hyperbolic predictions written per day on the melting season thread would be useful?  That would allow comparison with the NSIDC and AMSR2 data and we could see whether there was any correlation or not.   :)

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1252 on: June 21, 2019, 05:47:29 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 19th, 2019:
     9,972,882 km2, a drop of -63,998 km2.
     
June 20th, 2019:
     9,912,407 km2, a drop of -60,475 km2.
     2019 is now 6th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1253 on: June 21, 2019, 06:29:25 AM »
The ASI extent summer cliff has started: 2019 must have drops on the order of 81 to 95K km2 on the following 35 days, to follow the 2010's average extent.

Obviously, some drops will be less than that and others will be century drops.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Tony Mcleod

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1254 on: June 21, 2019, 08:08:13 AM »

Quite a lot of hyperbole on the melting season thread on expected sea ice collapse not yet showing in the data NSIDC and AMSR2 data.


Perhaps a graph showing the number of hyperbolic predictions written per day on the melting season thread would be useful?  That would allow comparison with the NSIDC and AMSR2 data and we could see whether there was any correlation or not.   :)

Wouldn't that risk creating even more hyperbolic prediction, like a feed back?

Aluminium

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1255 on: June 21, 2019, 08:23:35 AM »
The number of posts correlates with melting. The latest data seems extremely bad for ice. :)

be cause

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1256 on: June 21, 2019, 08:59:47 AM »
lol .. I wrote a post on posts per day last night and binned it .. although it was to lnvite folks to remove their posts unless they were adding something of value . But then I too realized that all the noise correlates with what's happening ... Thanks Aluminium for the graphic representation . b.c.

  .. ps .. looks like yesterday was an El Nino day ..
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 10:32:51 AM by be cause »
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 ...

Rodius

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1257 on: June 21, 2019, 10:04:56 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

June 19th, 2019:
     9,972,882 km2, a drop of -63,998 km2.
     
June 20th, 2019:
     9,912,407 km2, a drop of -60,475 km2.
     2019 is now 6th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).

I might be a bit slow to notice.... but the worst 15 years of extent all happened in the last 15 years.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1258 on: June 21, 2019, 11:39:13 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,912,407 km2(June 20, 2019)

- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 60 k, 11 k less than the average loss on this day of 71 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,234 k, 116 k (2.7 %) greater than the average of 4,242 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 42.9% of the melting season done, with 85 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.27 million km2, 6th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.09 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.38 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.20 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +1.0 to +2.0 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean. A complicated picture.

We are now entering  the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Over the last 2 weeks and more extent loss has been below or well below average.

Meanwhile, volume in the first half of June dropped like a stone (see the PIOMAS thread).
Quite a lot of hyperbole on the melting season thread on expected sea ice collapse not yet showing in the NSIDC and AMSR2 data as well.

The postings on the melting thread certainly do show that this year the ice is extremely mobile.
There is an El Nino (though not very strong) that looks like persisting at least until the Autumn.

Mixed messages.

But I am sticking with my guess of a 4 million km2 minimum, just in 2nd place. But when looking at the data I just do not hear the Beach Boys playing "Wipeout".
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Pagophilus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1259 on: June 21, 2019, 02:24:28 PM »
The number of posts correlates with melting. The latest data seems extremely bad for ice. :)

It is inspiring to see real science in action, Aluminium.   One day someone will thank you for this.    :) 
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 02:30:31 PM by Pagophilus »

weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1260 on: June 21, 2019, 03:24:31 PM »
Looking at the raw daily data, 2019 NSIDC sea ice area is still the third lowest value in the data set. For 6.20, the daily value is 8,039,945 kilometers squared. There was a loss of 67,579 kilometers squared from the previous date.

2019 now has 142,879 kilometers squared more of sea ice area than 2007, and 264,543 kilometers squared more than 2012. Losses continue to be below average.

The next closest year is 2016, which has a 66,540 kilometers squared lead.

NSIDC sea ice extent is now the 5th lowest for 6.20, with a value of 10.427 millions of kilometers squared. 2019 has greater sea ice extent for the date, than 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2016.
« Last Edit: June 21, 2019, 03:50:51 PM by weatherdude88 »

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1261 on: June 21, 2019, 03:28:09 PM »
The number of posts correlates with melting. The latest data seems extremely bad for ice. :)

It is inspiring to see real science in action, Aluminium.   One day someone will thank you for this.    :)
Ah.. but.. Cause & Effect ?

When there is a significant increase in melting there is lot more posting on the Arctic Sea Ice Area and Extent data thread. You see that also on the Global Sea Ice Area and Extent thread - perhaps even more strikingly. I also see that my graphs and tables get looked at a lot more on that thread at such times. Does the same thing happen on the Melting Season thread as people look to see why the sudden melt has happened? In this case the cause is melting almost immediately followed by a spike in postings?

Then there are the occasions when the melting season posts correctly predict the Panzer divisons blitzkreiging and blowtorching the Arctic. So the correlation works well.

Then there are also times when the weather models let the side down. So in this case a spike in postings presage following days of limited melt.

Not that I will be dragging through the history on these threads to quantify and then analyse the data. Nor would I be so cruel as to expect Aluminum to expand his interesting exercise into a major project, extending into all times of the year. (Winter is also getting very interesting as maxima reach new lows)

Back to the data.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1262 on: June 21, 2019, 03:36:03 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,068,945  km2
               
Total Area         
 8,068,945    km2      
-248,149    km2   <   2010's average.
-386,657    k   <   2018
-905,134    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -68    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -25    k   loss
Central Seas__   -20    k   loss
Other Seas___   -23    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss
Greenland____   -10    k   loss
Barents ______   -2    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    10    k   gain
CAA_________   -4    k   loss
East Siberian__   -4    k   loss
Central Arctic_    3    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -18    k   loss
Laptev_______   -8    k   loss
Chukchi______    1    k   gain
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss
Hudson Bay___   -21    k   loss

Area loss 68 k, 36 K LESS than the 2010's average loss of 104 k on this day.
Total area 3rd lowest (16 k greater than 2016, and 263 k greater than 2012).

2012 is the front runner as regards area.

Other Stuff
GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +1.0 to +2.0 degrees celsius. The images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean. A complicated picture.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Area losses have retreated to well below average in the last few days.

Meanwhile, volume in the first half of June dropped like a stone (see the PIOMAS thread). What will the 2nd half of the minh have in store for us?

Mixed messages from all over the place. Ho hum.
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Pagophilus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1263 on: June 21, 2019, 03:39:15 PM »
The number of posts correlates with melting. The latest data seems extremely bad for ice. :)

It is inspiring to see real science in action, Aluminium.   One day someone will thank you for this.    :)
Ah.. but.. Cause & Effect ?

I had not thought of that.  We do indeed need to investigate the disturbing possibility that the postings are causing the melting, and not the other way round.
 :o

Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1264 on: June 21, 2019, 05:31:53 PM »



Mixed messages from all over the place. Ho hum.


I don't see a mixed message. All of the results seem to point to a clear and cohesive picture which is consistent with the weather.

Is there any data result at this point in time which looks surprising to you ?

oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1265 on: June 21, 2019, 05:54:35 PM »
I've tried to keep quiet so as not to contribute to the noise, but please - the off-topic (though intelligent) discussions are cluttering this thread, please move them to the "meaningless season chatter" thread where they belong.
The on-topic discussions and rebuttals of Geron's boilerplate commentary should be held in the melting season thread.
(Neven - please punish me if I'm wrong. Please punish everyone else if I'm right)

jdallen

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1266 on: June 21, 2019, 06:14:28 PM »
^^^ +1 ^^^
This space for Rent.

Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1267 on: June 21, 2019, 06:36:16 PM »
This is a thread about data.

I'm asking the question if there's anything surprising or unusual about the data which prompts the mixed message comment.

As far as concerns about thread clutter, I think people are being a little over sensitive. No one is forcing anyone to read the other posts.

Of course, Neven's word is final. But I would also like to ask Gerontocrat himself whether he welcomes questions about his editorial comments?

If Gerontocrat says he doesn't want questions about his commentary, I'll respect that and don't need the heavy hand of the moderator to intervene.

HapHazard

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1268 on: June 21, 2019, 09:20:43 PM »
I used to like this thread.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1269 on: June 21, 2019, 09:32:59 PM »
This is a thread about data.

I'm asking the question if there's anything surprising or unusual about the data which prompts the mixed message comment.
In my post 4 hours earlier in the day on the JAXA extent data I wrote...
Quote
We are now entering  the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July. Over the last 2 weeks and more extent loss has been below or well below average.

Meanwhile, volume in the first half of June dropped like a stone (see the PIOMAS thread).
Quite a lot of hyperbole on the melting season thread on expected sea ice collapse not yet showing in the NSIDC and AMSR2 data as well.

The postings on the melting thread certainly do show that this year the ice is extremely mobile.
There is an El Nino (though not very strong) that looks like persisting at least until the Autumn.

Mixed messages.
It is unusual for area and extent data to persistently (i.e. more than two weeks) to go in one direction while weather models and other data point in another direction.

Hence the comment " mixed messages".

It is reasonable, to remark when statements in in other threads , e.g. "Panzer divisions" (not my phrase) fail to mobilise and Friv's extravagant forecasts do not materialise in or seem justified by changes in the area and extent data so far. "Looks like it's going to [be] pretty soon that sailing from Pacific to Atlantic w/o an ice breaker. Perhaps June."(NOT one of Frivs)  is a candidate for the future.
 
If I make a remark that has no obvious context ( I do assume that people read the other main sea ice threads - especially melting & PIOMAS), then it is right to request for me to explain. As far as mixed messages are concerned, that explanation was there.

...and, by golly, that is all I am going to say about that.
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1270 on: June 21, 2019, 09:38:16 PM »
I used to like this thread.
So did I.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
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Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1271 on: June 21, 2019, 10:50:00 PM »
You know what I really miss? That plot of daily area anomalies to see what kind of cliff we have just passed in comparison with the other 2010's... I believe somebody posted that in past years and it's a great chart, I'd be much obliged :)

Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1272 on: June 21, 2019, 11:02:24 PM »
Look, I'm okay with short replies, but if things evolve into real discussions, please, take them to more appropriate threads, as there are so many.
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Neven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1273 on: June 21, 2019, 11:04:27 PM »
After going up for a bit, compactness goes down again (thanks mainly to 147K drop in area):
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1274 on: June 22, 2019, 05:43:34 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 21st, 2019:
     9,814,580 km2, almost a century drop: -97,827 km2.
     2019 is 6th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1275 on: June 22, 2019, 06:47:54 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,814,580 km2(June 21, 2019)

- Extent is 6th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 98 k, 27 k more than the average loss on this day of 71 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,457 k, 144 k (3.3 %) greater than the average of 4,313 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 43.6% of the melting season done, with 84 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.25 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.07 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.35 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.17 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +1.0 to +2.2 degrees celsius  during the next week. The images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean. A complicated picture.

We are now entering  the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Until this day, over the last 2 weeks and more extent loss has been below or well below average.
The question is now - is this a one-off drop or will above average daily extent loss be sustained?
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1276 on: June 22, 2019, 02:47:50 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 20 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 8,001,728  km2
               
Total Area         
 8,001,728    km2      
-228,132    km2   <   2010's average.
-351,570    k   <   2018
-874,598    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -67    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -35    k   loss
Central Seas__   -13    k   loss
Other Seas___   -19    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -1    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss
Greenland____   -17    k   loss
Barents ______   -3    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    7    k   gain
CAA_________   -2    k   loss
East Siberian__    5    k   gain
Central Arctic_    15    k   gain
         
Kara_________   -18    k   loss
Laptev_______   -13    k   loss
Chukchi______   -6    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -19    k   loss

Area loss 67 k, 26 K LESS than the 2010's average loss of 93 k on this day.
Total area 3rd lowest (67 k greater than 2016, and 253 k greater than 2012).

2012 is the front runner as regards area.

Other Stuff
GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +1.0 to +2.2 degrees celsius  during the next week. The images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean. A complicated picture.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Area losses have retreated to well below average in the last few days.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Pagophilus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1277 on: June 22, 2019, 03:24:13 PM »
It is unusual for area and extent data to persistently (i.e. more than two weeks) to go in one direction while weather models and other data point in another direction.

Hence the comment " mixed messages".

It is reasonable, to remark when statements in in other threads , e.g. "Panzer divisions" (not my phrase) fail to mobilise and Friv's extravagant forecasts do not materialise in or seem justified by changes in the area and extent data so far. "Looks like it's going to [be] pretty soon that sailing from Pacific to Atlantic w/o an ice breaker. Perhaps June."(NOT one of Frivs)  is a candidate for the future.


Gerontocrat, I read your editorial comments as extremely useful and sensible.  You base them on the current evidence from the Arctic and the past behavior of the ice.  That is what a scientist does.  I don't just like your comments, I need them.  You are anchoring so much of the discussion on this forum. 

On the melting thread, which is a lot of fun, speculations dart all over the place and they are sometimes rather detached from the overall data.  The discussions often resemble those that scientists have after they have had a few beers.  I sometimes get a bit intoxicated myself.  One day an apocalyptical prediction is going to come true, we all know that, but meanwhile I prefer to think like a Casino owner, mostly going with the behavior of the overall system, not the individual bets.  So, please, please continue to make your comments. 

BTW   I agree that discussion of your comments (as opposed to questions about data) should go to other threads.  However, I don't think you need to defend them.  We know who you are, and you are doing more than enough already.   

Over and out.

Richard Rathbone

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1278 on: June 22, 2019, 04:03:53 PM »
You know what I really miss? That plot of daily area anomalies to see what kind of cliff we have just passed in comparison with the other 2010's... I believe somebody posted that in past years and it's a great chart, I'd be much obliged :)

and if this is maintained somewhere I'd appreciate a link, it really is the key graph for June comparisons.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1279 on: June 22, 2019, 04:16:18 PM »
You know what I really miss? That plot of daily area anomalies to see what kind of cliff we have just passed in comparison with the other 2010's... I believe somebody posted that in past years and it's a great chart, I'd be much obliged :)

and if this is maintained somewhere I'd appreciate a link, it really is the key graph for June comparisons.
Probably not the one attached. If it is the posting I found is

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,418.msg8940.html#msg8940
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Richard Rathbone

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1280 on: June 22, 2019, 05:40:06 PM »
That's the plot but CT is long dead, I've yet to find a replacement for it.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1281 on: June 22, 2019, 05:50:42 PM »
That's the plot but CT is long dead, I've yet to find a replacement for it.
Surely the NSIDC area and extent files (.csv) at https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ have got all the data required? (as does JAXA for daily AMSR2 extent data at https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/monitor)

The cruder projections I post on JAXA data use remaining melt for each year.
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oren

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1282 on: June 22, 2019, 06:13:23 PM »
That's the plot but CT is long dead, I've yet to find a replacement for it.
I know Wipneus has replicated the CT data and even the CT regions. The data is somewhere on his site. But I've never seen this anomaly plot.

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1283 on: June 22, 2019, 07:59:46 PM »
That's the plot but CT is long dead, I've yet to find a replacement for it.
I know Wipneus has replicated the CT data and even the CT regions. The data is somewhere on his site. But I've never seen this anomaly plot.

Made a search over last year thread.
As long as area keeps dropping fast , and extent doesn't respond, compactness will drop fast too. Right now it's lowest in the 2005-2018 record:

Indeed, there has been a "July Cliff" for NSIDC sea ice area in the past week:



But weather forecasts seem to be favorable for ice retention in the next several days, so I guess there will be a reduction in melt ponding and the cliff will fizzle out (and maybe bounce back upwards a bit, although that remains to be seen...)

Jim Hunt

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1284 on: June 22, 2019, 11:43:26 PM »
I know Wipneus has replicated the CT data and even the CT regions. The data is somewhere on his site. But I've never seen this anomaly plot.

Wipneus' raw regional area/extent data:

High res 3.125 km AMSR2: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/UH_AMSR2_3.125km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt

Standard res 10 km JAXA AMSR2: https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/amsr2/data/Jaxa_AMSR2_L3_10km_Area_Extent-v0.0.txt


NSIDC SSMIS:
https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/sea-ice-extent-area/data/nsidc_arc_nt_detail.txt

Crunch the numbers to generate your own anomaly graph if so desired. The latter corresponds closely to the original "CT area"
Reality is merely an illusion, albeit a very persistent one - Albert Einstein

Sterks

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1285 on: June 23, 2019, 12:00:08 AM »
No, Jim, sorry, if I start to produce all the graphics I would like to, I would lose my employment, or my family, or both. It almost happened to me in the past, lesson learned.
I rely in the meantime on the work of the contributors here, thank you all, sincerely!

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1286 on: June 23, 2019, 05:44:19 AM »
[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 22nd, 2019:
     9,728,067 km2, a drop of -86,513 km2.
     2019 is now 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1287 on: June 23, 2019, 09:09:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,728,067 km2(June 22, 2019)

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 87 k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day of 74 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,543 k, 156 k (3.6 %) greater than the average of 4,387 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 44.4% of the melting season done, with 83 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt would give a minimum of 4.23 million km2, 4th lowest in the satellite record, and 1.05 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2.
Looking at the last 5 years average remaining melt gives a result of 4.34 million km2, 6th lowest, and 1.16 million km2 above 2012.

Other Stuff

GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +1.0 to +2.1 degrees celsius  during the next week. The images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean. A complicated picture.

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Until the last 2 days, over the last 2 weeks and more extent loss has been below or well below average.

Will above average daily extent loss be sustained?
Will area loss follow suit and return to at least average daily loss levels?
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iceman

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1288 on: June 23, 2019, 12:48:58 PM »
That's the plot but CT is long dead, I've yet to find a replacement for it.

I too have lost the plot.

different metric: There's a volume anomaly graph on Wipneus' site that's useful for seasonal comparison across years. Appears to be updated only through March, though.
       https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/piomas

gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1289 on: June 23, 2019, 03:05:37 PM »
NSIDC Total Area as at 22 June 2019 (5 day trailing average) 7,918,878  km2
                        
 Total Area         
 7,918,878    km2      
-216,996    km2   <   2010's average.
-329,795    k   <   2018
-864,180    k   <   2000's average.
         
Total Area Change   -83    k   loss
Peripheral Seas   -30    k   loss
Central Seas__   -35    k   loss
Other Seas___   -17    k   loss
         
Peripheral Seas         
Bering _______   -0    k   loss
Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss
Greenland____   -16    k   loss
Barents ______   -1    k   loss
         
CAB Seas         
Beaufort_____    4    k   gain
CAA_________   -7    k   loss
East Siberian__    14    k   gain
Central Arctic_   -6    k   loss
         
Kara_________   -11    k   loss
Laptev_______   -22    k   loss
Chukchi______   -8    k   loss
         
Other Seas         
Okhotsk______   -1    k   loss
St Lawrence___    0    k   gain
Hudson Bay___   -17    k   loss

Area loss 83 k, just 4 K LESS than the 2010's average loss of 87 k on this day.
EDIT
Total area 3rd 4th lowest (13k greater than 2007, 100k greater than 2016, and 260k greater than 2012).

2012 is the front runner as regards area.
Other Stuff
GFS showing  temperature anomalies at +1.0 to +2.1 degrees celsius  during the next week. The images suggest high +ve anomalies in central and eastern Siberia, with contrasting and sometimes strong -ve anomalies for most of the time on land and coastal sea by and in the Beaufort/CAA and Western Siberia, and in contrast again mostly +ve anomaly over most of the Arctic Ocean. A complicated picture.

We are in the period of maximum daily area loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Area losses have ticked up somewhat on this day after retreating to well below average in the few days before.
________________________________________________________________________
There is a significant difference between AMSR2 high resolution data and both NSIDC and JAXA data. I think I will have a look at that later. Off to mow the lawn.
« Last Edit: June 23, 2019, 04:26:52 PM by gerontocrat »
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gerontocrat

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1290 on: June 23, 2019, 05:13:41 PM »
On the 2019 Melting Season thread Jim Hunt posted AMSR2 high resolution extent and area graphs that show 2019 is the leader of the pack. This reinforces the torching and mayhem indicated and predicted in the melting season thread.

(https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2591.msg207781.html#msg207781).

Meanwhile JAXA extent say 3rd lowest (by 200+ k), NSIDC (5 day) area says 4th lowest, (by 260k), and NSIDC Daily Extent 6th lowest (by 300k). When looking at graphs that exclude the peripheral seas a similar picture emerges. NSIDC High Arctic area on 22 June is 162k greater than 2012. These amounts are not small.

It is logical to assume that the higher the resolution, the more accurate the result, and that  the JAXA and NSIDC data should eventually follow the AMSR2 data. But normally there is some consistency in the variation between these different sets of data. Something to watch in the following days.

Attached are :-
 - Jim Hunt's Arctic Sea Ice Area graph (not enough colour difference between some years for my tired old eyes),
-  NSIDC Sea ice Area,
- Jim Hunt's Arctic BASIN Sea Ice Area graph
- NSIDC High Arctic Area


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ArcticMelt2

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1291 on: June 23, 2019, 07:59:32 PM »
The Pacific side continues to lead:


Steven

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1292 on: June 23, 2019, 08:10:01 PM »
That plot of daily area anomalies to see what kind of cliff we have just passed in comparison with the other 2010's... I believe somebody posted that in past years

On Wipneus' website there is a text file with daily NSIDC area anomaly data: see here

NSIDC daily area is currently 5th lowest for the date, but the difference between 2nd and 5th place is small.  The 5 lowest years for this date are 2012 (lowest), 2007, 2010, 2016 and 2019.  Here is a graph that I made from Wipneus' data.:


Pagophilus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1293 on: June 24, 2019, 12:38:12 AM »
JAXA ARCTIC EXTENT :-  9,728,067 km2(June 22, 2019)

- Extent is 5th lowest in the satellite record.
- Extent loss on this day 87 k, 13 k more than the average loss on this day of 74 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 4,543 k, 156 k (3.6 %) greater than the average of 4,387 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 44.4% of the melting season done, with 83 days to average date of minimum (13 September).

We are now entering the period of maximum daily extent loss that lasts until mid or late July.
Until the last 2 days, over the last 2 weeks and more extent loss has been below or well below average.

Will above average daily extent loss be sustained?
Will area loss follow suit and return to at least average daily loss levels?

Like many another, I have been wondering why extent losses have dropped so slowly.  I think much of the reason may lie in the Barentz Sea.  Two tongues of ice have been projecting into the Barentz for some time, as the ice pack rotated away from the Pacific side and towards the Atlantic side, an unusual move.  One tongue projects between Svalbard and FJL and one between FJL and SZ.

The initial reaction was that this ice had gone to 'oblivion', into the 'killing zone', and I too was of that opinion.  In fact the ice tongues have been remarkably persistent (see the first comparative NSIDC map below, comparing June 8 and 22 this year).  No doubt this is partly because new ice is entering the Barentz, but the Barentz waters are cooler this year, and I think this may be in large part because so much ice has melted into the Barentz, forming a cold freshwater layer at the top, at least in the region of the ice.  So there ice hangs around longer than expected in the Barentz, so extent declines more slowly (the Beaufort also plays its role, but others have mentioned that).

Comparisons with June 22, 2018 (second map) and with the silver-medal-holding 2016 show how unusual this situation is.  There is a LOT of ice in the Barentz.  Will the main ice pack melt as far back as in previous years, to the continental shelf to the N of FJL etc?  That might be a big determinant as to how low extent goes this year.   

Pragma

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1294 on: June 24, 2019, 01:31:07 AM »
Pagophilus,

These are excellent maps. Thanks for taking the time, and I hope they become a regular feature on this thread.

I just spent quite a bit of time this morning with 2 copies of the Charctic app up on my system, trying to compare what you show so clearly.

+1


Pagophilus

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1295 on: June 24, 2019, 01:47:01 AM »
Pagophilus,

These are excellent maps. Thanks for taking the time, and I hope they become a regular feature on this thread.

I just spent quite a bit of time this morning with 2 copies of the Charctic app up on my system, trying to compare what you show so clearly.

+1

Pragma, thank you.  But all the credit has to go to the NSIDC, they can be obtained here:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/

I think they are amazing too, and I am glad to bring them before this forum if they have not previously around.

Rich

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1296 on: June 24, 2019, 02:04:10 AM »


I think much of the reason may lie in the Barentz Sea.  Two tongues of ice have been projecting into the Barentz for some time, as the ice pack rotated away from the Pacific side and towards the Atlantic side, an unusual move.  One tongue projects between Svalbard and FJL and one between FJL and SZ.

The initial reaction was that this ice had gone to 'oblivion', into the 'killing zone', and I too was of that opinion.  In fact the ice tongues have been remarkably persistent (see the first comparative NSIDC map below, comparing June 8 and 22 this year).

The reason ice has been moving into these regions is the persistent cyclone sitting in or near the Kara during this interval.

When the low pressure leaves the area, the region should behave similar to previous years.

Pragma

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1297 on: June 24, 2019, 03:07:50 AM »

Pragma, thank you.  But all the credit has to go to the NSIDC, they can be obtained here:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/

I think they are amazing too, and I am glad to bring them before this forum if they have not previously around.

LOL! I'm laughing and embarrassed. As I have mentioned before, NSIDC is updating their tools all the time and are very receptive to suggestions.

I was going to email them, suggesting a comparison tool.  :-[

Um, er ... never mind  :)

weatherdude88

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1298 on: June 24, 2019, 03:36:40 AM »
Looking at the raw daily data, 2019 NSIDC sea ice area is the fourth lowest value in the data set. For 6.22, the daily value is 7,889,878 kilometers squared. There was a loss of 82,849 kilometers squared from the previous date.

2019 now has 293,437 kilometers squared more sea ice area than 2007, 259,734 kilometers squared more than 2012, 4,313 kilometers squared more than 2016. Losses continue to be below average.

The next closest year is 2010, which has a 36,358 kilometers squared lead.
If the sea ice area loss for 6.23 is less than 110,999 kilometers squared, 2019 will have the 5th lowest daily value for 6.23.

The highest melt years had significant late June area cliffs, where 2019 has had a period of below average sea ice area losses.

Why does NSIDC Central Arctic sea ice area data, show less sea ice area for the sub 2008 data set than the post 2007 data set? The data set shows 2019 has 471,675 kilometers squared more sea ice area in the CA than 2007. The only logical explanation is NSIDC redrew the sea boundaries for the post 2007 data?
« Last Edit: June 24, 2019, 12:06:57 PM by weatherdude88 »

Juan C. García

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Re: 2019 sea ice area and extent data
« Reply #1299 on: June 24, 2019, 05:51:47 AM »
Pragma, thank you.  But all the credit has to go to the NSIDC, they can be obtained here:

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-comparison-tool/

I think they are amazing too, and I am glad to bring them before this forum if they have not previously around.
They are great, so thanks NSIDC for this work and also, thanks Pagophilus for let us (me?) know about this graphs!  :)
(I think I saw them before, but I didn't remember...)
______________________________

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.
 
June 23rd, 2019:
     9,658,561 km2, a drop of -69,506 km2.
     2019 is 5th lowest on record.
     (2012 highlighted).
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.