JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT :- 4,053,800 km2(September 13, 2019)
Extent loss in the last 4 days of 116 K, compared with an average of just 1k, yes, 1k, has changed things quite a bit.
- Extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite record,
- Extent is 853 k greater than 2012, 186 k less than 2016. but 2016 extent is now increasing, and 82 k less than 2007,
- Extent loss on this day 34 k, 36 k different from the average gain on this day of 2 k.
- Extent loss from maximum 10,217 k, 404 k (4.1%) greater than the average of 9,814 k loss from maximum by this day,
- On average 100% % of the melting season done, with Zero days to average date of minimum (13 September).
The Perils of Projections.
Average remaining melt (0.04 million km) would give a minimum of 4.02 million km2, equal 2nd with 2016, 0.84 million km2 above the 2012 low of 3.18 million km2, equal to 2016, 0.05 less than 2007.
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Ice Melt Outlook ??
From today on average there are daily extent gains . However, in the the last 10 years there were 5 years with further extent loss, with up to 8 days of extent losses to come (2018).
In just 2 of the last 10 previous years (2010 & 2018) remaining extent loss is enough to bring 2019 to a minimum below 4.00 million km2.
Perhaps it ain't over yet - the Fat Lady has laryngitis?
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ps: If extent gains, when they come, are subdued, the 2019 September monthly average would be well below 2016, even if the daily minimum is above 2016. Something to look at on the NSIDC extent data.