oren
I'm addressing this to you as you were the first to respond, asked the most pertinent questions, and frankly because I was a little taken aback that you weren't in agreement with the broad jist of my post.
I'll not be quoting your questions, but I'll be answering as best I can in the order you presented them. The others I believe will find answers to their questions/comments covered here. (or evaded?)
I'm hesitant to answer for NeilT, but as I understood his post he blames the blackout(s) on a number of factors, one of such is the additional stress that EVs place on an already stressed network.
The UK had been stressed when coal was the primary source of energy, and as coal plants were shuddered they were replaced by lower capacity renewables. In addition to this additional loads that weren't planned for years ago (primarily EVs) have been adding to the problem.
I'll defer to NeilT and your own insites WRT the specifics of UKs power generation other than to mention that like many locales the UK is adding load faster than they are adding generation.
In re to nuclear solutions I'm again unaware of the specifics of the situation in the UK. NeilT seems to believe that it's the only way to get ahead of the UK's rising demand, while my understanding is that North America has lost the ability to bring Nuclear projects in on time, or within budget.
I don't think there is much difference between your own and my take on Nuclear in the near future. I'll leave it to NeilT to explain why he believes Nuclear power to be a timely, viable solution
I'm inclined to agree with your assessment of wind, solar, gas and batteries. My problem is in seeing instances where these solutions are doing much more than treading water WRT the additional demands that EV and other loads are adding to the grid.
The longer anyone burns coal the sooner the worst effects of Climate Change will be felt. We're in a hole re. clean electrical generation and distribution. As long as this perception holds there will be political pressure to extend the life of thermal coal plants.
If I'm misrepresenting NeilT's position I apologize and wan't to assure both sides that any misrepresentation was the result of my misinterpreting what I'd read, not a nefarious scheme to misrepresent his position.
E-Buses were paired with
small numbers of gas/diesel sipping private cars as this scenario envisions a drastic cutback in the ownership of private vehicles. I didn't wish to muddy the waters by tossing all options into one large pot, but to separate various futures I was envisioning. Both futures have quite obviously been exaggerated for emphasis.
My feeling about Musk began when we investigated the electricity needed to power an all EV home (some years ago?) on this forum, and research I'd earlier on the same subject. I didn't go after EV's because I didn't like Musk, rather I went after Musk because I didn't like the numbers I was getting from EV saturation scenarios.
If all of the EVs are made by VW, Chevrolet or Toyota the results would be the same - unless there is some battery/engine combination that increases miles/kWh by a huge degree - a breakthrough that I see as unlikely to occur in a relevant time period.
The problem as I see it with your "all other things being equal" is that privately owned EV's alter the playing field. With an EV in every garage we need to produce ~twice the electricity we generate today. I'm not sure that a rapid roll out of this much clean electricity is reasonable in the UK, the US, China or any number of venues. A problem that halting, limiting, or at least discouraging EV usage might diminish.
The problem of EV's is specifically their "big battery". Can I recommend some of Sig's recent posts where she points out that a long range Tesla actually
requires more than two 310 mile charges to nociate the 454 mile trip between Las Vegas and Los Angeles because of elevation changes. While regenerative braking was supposed to negate these hills, apparently in real life this just ain't so, and it points out a huge discrepancy between Tesla's advertised mileage. And the mileage that people are getting in real life.
I'm not singling Tesla out for this >1/3 underestimation of the miles/kWh that a full BEV model will deliver even when the route is limited to the shallow grades allowed on the Interstate Highway system. The pressure to outperform the competition and the obfuscation involved in "by the minute" electrical purchasing as well as advertizing that emphasizes the Wattage entering the battery as opposed to the Wattage leaving your household wiring all serve to add to the problem I'm addressing.
When gerontocrat and I were working on this problem in the past we accepted the advertised mileage of EVs in our calculations. I wouldn't be so naive knowing what I now know.
If this missed anyone's specific objections I'm sorry, but it's what I'm going to throw out there today. If you're not familiar with the previous discussion regarding Average electrical use per family, matched against Average miles driven per family, it might be enlightening. We used American families driving on American roads - and with that caveat the results shouldn't be too different in other 1st world nations.- but for the relatively new data indicating huge problems with the proffered mileage figures when hills are involved. We don't drive on pancake flat highways.
Terry
Appears I'm cross posting with 7 others, so this may need revision at some point - posting it now before an 8th chimes in.