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Bob Wallace

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2900 on: June 26, 2018, 12:31:02 AM »
Quote
Clearly, the decision is based on economics, not on environmental concerns. If there are subsidies, you could stop them. You could insulate homes better to reduce heating demand. You could set a maximum amount of trees to be used for pellets (which IMO should only be made from timber leftovers and recycled wood). And so on.

Yes, most decisions are now made based on economics, not on environmental concerns. 

If there are subsidies....  If there are.  Coal has enormous external costs.  What if we calculated them in.

Increased insulation would help cut the amount of fossil fuel used for heating.  That does not change the math for wood.

You could set a max amount for wood.  Which means burning more fossil fuel.

What I'm seeing is people who have made up their minds that burning wood is more evil than burning fossil fuels.  Perhaps it is.  But until someone does all the math everyone is guessing.

Neven

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2901 on: June 26, 2018, 12:38:20 AM »
Thanks for acknowledging there may be more alternatives to just evil and lesser evil.
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Bob Wallace

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2902 on: June 26, 2018, 12:41:09 AM »
Renewables making a move...

Looking at global electricity generation over the last twenty years we can see something happening in the last five.



Renewable energy generation grew faster than fossil fuel.  10,551 TWh to 8,174 TWh. 

Following the 1997 to 2002 fossil fuels and nuclear have grown in decreasing amounts while renewables have steadily increased.

True but total energy use is growing faster than renewables so that demand for fossil fuels continues to climb.

Our runner is behind the pack but closing. 

For the 2007 to 2012 block fossil fuels produced 72,332 TWh of electricity. 
For the 2012 to 2017 block fossil fuels produced 80,506 TWh of electricity.
An increase of 8,174 TWh.


For the 2007 to 2012 block renewables produced 23,051 TWh of electricity. 
For the 2012 to 2017 block renewables produced 33,602 TWh of electricity.
An increase of 10,551 TWh.

Renewables grew more than fossil fuels.  Globally.

And this is before the current low prices of renewable energy had fully kicked in.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2903 on: June 26, 2018, 12:46:48 AM »
Thanks for acknowledging there may be more alternatives to just evil and lesser evil.

Sometimes the choice is between good and evil.   But other times, unfortunately, it's a choice between evil and less evil.

I'm sure there are Bernie fans who view Hillary as somewhat evil.  But the choice was not between good Bernie and somewhat evil Hillary.  It was between somewhat evil Hillary and evil to the bone Donald.

(BTW, that is not my opinion of either Bernie or Hillary.  I'd put Bernie between Hillary and Donald due to Bernie's inability to implement solutions.  And I consider neither evil.  But I would have voted for Bernie in a heartbeat had he won the primary.)

numerobis

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2904 on: June 26, 2018, 04:35:22 AM »
If we log forests, we release carbon stored in its soil. Land use change is a big contributor.

numerobis

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2905 on: June 26, 2018, 04:36:06 AM »
<snip, if you really have to use that kind of language, do it in a PM; N.>
« Last Edit: June 26, 2018, 06:24:36 AM by Neven »

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2906 on: June 26, 2018, 05:01:06 AM »
The IRS has given a temporary extension to grid scale PV projects that begin construction by the end of 2019 to qualify for the full 30% investment tax credit as long as the project is completed by 1/1/2024.
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/06/25/irs-gives-big-solar-two-more-years/

This is good news.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2907 on: June 26, 2018, 05:40:42 AM »
<snip, as per above; N.>

Ooooohhhhhhhhhhhhh, harsh.

(But I have to admit I'm smiling.  No, laughing.)
« Last Edit: June 26, 2018, 06:25:06 AM by Neven »

Bob Wallace

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2908 on: June 26, 2018, 05:44:28 AM »
The IRS has given a temporary extension to grid scale PV projects that begin construction by the end of 2019 to qualify for the full 30% investment tax credit as long as the project is completed by 1/1/2024.
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/06/25/irs-gives-big-solar-two-more-years/

This is good news.

That is good news.  It should largely offset the Trump tariff on solar panels.

By the end of 2019 we should have a supply from other countries that are outside the tariff BS.  And we should be producing more panels in-country.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2909 on: June 26, 2018, 05:54:30 AM »
Dale Ross is the Mayor of Georgetown, Texas whose electricity is almost 100% renewable.

Quote
People there say coal plants kept the lights on for generations. Then, Republican Mayor Dale Ross concluded the market was changing.

Unlike many Republicans, Ross accepts climate science. He supports clean power so much he bought an electric motorcycle. But Ross said he approved wind and solar because it's affordable.
 
"This was first and foremost a business decision and if you win the business argument, then you're gonna win the environmental argument," Ross said.

"It's a totally different landscape out there," he said. "And let me tell you, in the state of Texas, since January 1, four coal plants have closed. This is the economics of the matter. You buy wind and solar for, say, $18 a megawatt. You buy coal for $25. You have that choice. Which one are you gonna buy?"

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-leader-in-renewable-energy-wind-turbines/

dnem

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2910 on: June 26, 2018, 02:09:50 PM »
These numbers were posted on a Sustainable Consumption list that I am on:

Wind supplied 1.9%, and solar only 0.7%, of total energy in 2017. Meanwhile fossil fuels contributed 85% to world energy demand (the rest is hydro, biomass and nuclear). Of the substantial increase in energy consumption in 2017, wind and solar together accounted for 25% while almost 70% came from fossil fuels.

I don't know the source of the data but I trust the poster.  The data are for TOTAL energy, not just electricity generation.  Sobering.

BenB

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2911 on: June 26, 2018, 03:19:12 PM »
According to BP, "other renewables" (everything bar hydro) produced around 3.6% of total energy in 2017:

https://www.bp.com/content/dam/bp/en/corporate/pdf/energy-economics/statistical-review/bp-stats-review-2018-full-report.pdf (see page 9 for a summary of global energy consumption by source)

By comparison, nuclear provided around 4.4% and hydro 6.8%. Oil leads the way with over 34%.

Bob Wallace

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2912 on: June 26, 2018, 08:34:41 PM »
Quote
Wind supplied 1.9%, and solar only 0.7%, of total energy in 2017.

That's a bad metric.  We waste about 2/3rds of the energy we use.  Mostly to the inefficiency of fossil fuel plants and internal combustion engines to turn the energy in petroleum, natural gas and coal into a usable form of energy.

ICEVs, for example, are about 20% efficient.  EVs are about 80% efficient. 

Sixty percent of the energy (actually more) that we use to drive will not need to be replaced with renewable energy.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2913 on: June 27, 2018, 10:13:21 PM »
With Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s victory, U.S. Congress will likely gain a new climate champion
Quote
On Tuesday night, 28-year-old Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez toppled a 10-term Congressman from New York City in a landslide Democratic primary victory. The shocking result virtually assures that the U.S. Congress will welcome its youngest female member ever next year.
...
Ocasio-Cortez is one of the first American politicians to put forward a climate change plan that would keep global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius.

To meet that goal while leaving space for developing countries to move at a slower pace, independent assessments suggest that the United States needs to reduce its emissions by approximately 75 to 125 percent or more — actually drawing carbon dioxide out of the air — by 2035. Ocasio-Cortez hopes to move the entire country to 100 percent renewable energy by 2035. Even Bernie Sanders’ climate plan didn’t set such an ambitious goal.

The crash carbon diet would require “the complete mobilization of the American workforce to combat climate change,” as Ocasio-Cortez told HuffPost reporter Alexander Kaufman.

On her campaign’s website, she summarizes the danger that climate change poses to the planet:

Climate change is the single biggest national security threat for the United States and the single biggest threat to worldwide industrialized civilization, and the effects of warming can be hard to predict and self-reinforcing. We need to avoid a worldwide refugee crisis by waging a war for climate justice through the mobilization of our population and our government. This starts with the United States being a leader on the actions we take both globally and locally.

According to Ocasio-Cortez, such an effort would cost “trillions of dollars,” but would “not only save our planet from the ravages of climate change but would also lift millions of Americans out of poverty.”

It’s an audacious plan that’s easy to dismiss as wishful thinking. But last night’s results just brought Ocasio-Cortez’s vision a step closer to reality.
https://grist.org/article/with-alexandria-ocasio-cortezs-victory-congress-will-likely-gain-a-new-climate-champion/

“Big day for Puerto Rico:
✔️ @Ocasio2018 is about to join Congress, elected on a platform to rebuild the island with 100% renewable energy ...”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1012034585352433665

Cross-posted from Hurricane 2018 and Money/Politics (sort of ;) )
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2914 on: June 30, 2018, 01:13:26 AM »
Elon Musk’s unprecedented solar+storage vision for Puerto Rico moves forward

Puerto Rico is requesting ten 20 MW / 20 MWh batteries to be deployed strategically in the country’s power grid. The RFQ notes that sites should be upgradable to 40 MW / 160 MWh.
Quote
In the fall of 2017, leadership in Puerto Rico suggested that they were considering getting bids on Tesla’s proposed energy storage concepts for the island. Since then, constant reports about small scale energy storage being deployed on the island have filtered out. Of course Tesla has been part of it, but the whole of the industry – including Sonnon, LG, Fluence, AES and so many others have been involved.

Last month, as part of the solicitation process, a government requested report, Desirability and Convenience Study: Utility Scale Energy Storage Systems (PDF), was published stating that total savings from a 40 MW / 48 MWh energy storage system:

Would be about $120/MW-hr. Assuming 40 MW charge/discharge every day at this differential cost, the total annual saving would be approximately $1.75 million per year.
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/06/28/elon-musks-unprecedented-solarstorage-vision-for-puerto-rico-moves-forward/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2915 on: July 03, 2018, 05:56:52 PM »
U.S.:
"I don't know if I agree with some of the greenhouse gas people or whatever, but I do believe that [solar power] is a good use of saving energy."

Solar Is Saving Low-Income Households Money in Colorado. It Could Be a National Model.
The state’s energy assistance programs are solving two challenges at once: help people save money on electricity bills while expanding renewable energy.
Quote
Low-income households in Colorado are getting a new question during visits from energy assistance agencies: Have you considered solar panels?

It's an innovative approach to solving two challenges at once: reducing greenhouse gas emissions as the effects of climate change appear across the state, and lowering low-income families' electricity bills.

The results can make a big difference for residents like Joe Anderson, whose power bills have been cut by two-thirds since 13 solar panels were installed free-of-charge on his ranch-style house under one Colorado program. "I felt like I kind of got the luck of the draw," he said. ...
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/02072018/colorado-rooftop-solar-panels-clean-energy-utility-bill-savings-low-income-households-weatherization
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jacksmith4tx

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2916 on: July 04, 2018, 03:39:52 AM »
Good presentation by Varun Sivaram (MIT) on the state of solar power today and a few serious problems that loom in the future. Value deflation, technology lock-in are real economic side effects of most emerging technologies. Check out the video:


About his new book: Taming the Sun
"Publisher's Summary

Solar energy, once a niche application for a limited market, has become the cheapest and fastest-growing power source on earth. What's more, its potential is nearly limitless. But in Taming the Sun, energy expert Varun Sivaram warns that the world is not yet equipped to harness erratic sunshine to meet most of its energy needs. And if solar's current surge peters out, prospects for replacing fossil fuels and averting catastrophic climate change will dim.

Innovation can brighten those prospects, Sivaram explains. Financial innovation is already enticing deep-pocketed investors to fund solar projects around the world. Technological innovation could replace today's solar panels with coatings as cheap as paint and employ artificial photosynthesis to store intermittent sunshine as convenient fuels. And systemic innovation could add flexibility to the world's power grids and other energy systems, so they can dependably channel the sun's unreliable energy.

Unleashing all this innovation will require visionary public policy: funding researchers developing next-generation solar technologies, refashioning energy systems and economic markets, and putting together a diverse clean energy portfolio. Although solar can't power the planet by itself, it can be the centerpiece of a global clean energy revolution."
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2917 on: July 04, 2018, 05:15:47 AM »
I admit I didn't watch the whole video as I find it's a very inefficient method of communicating information, but jumping through some of the slides it seemed as I suspected that the famous duck curve is the problem he has in mind, and batteries to shift daytime production to evening consumption is what he neglects to mention as a possible solution. If that's the case, I find it a lacking analysis. If you watched the whole thing, could you clarify if batteries/short-term storage are discussed, and if so - where in the video?

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2918 on: July 04, 2018, 05:53:01 AM »
oren,
I think if you google his name and the title of his new book there are other presentations. This video appears to part of his book tour pitch. It appears there are some the leading scientists in renewable energy research in the audience so the Q&A had some interesting exchanges.

He did discuss storage and what it does to the grid. He was the author of a study that modeled the Texas ERCOT grid in 2017 and gave a pretty aggressive analysis that said batteries might never solve the intermittent nature of solar. Basically you need at least 4X the nameplate solar power, a 4 to 1 ratio,  in storage to deal with a future of EVs and shifting demand patterns. Storage needs to be really cheap and last longer than 24hrs to displace natural gas & fossil fuels. Beyond solar as just a electricity source he sees liquid fuel production as a good use of solar power once the cost per watt drops to 1/10th current silicone costs - he's big on ‎Perovskite.

At the end of the video I noticed the lecture was sponsored by Chevron Energy  ;D
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oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2919 on: July 04, 2018, 06:16:18 AM »
Thanks jacksmith.
I found a couple of slides about batteries, starting from 32:30 into the video. I got a strong feeling that he is downplaying batteries on purpose. He kept saying that batteries are just one storage solution among many others, and that there are a whole lot of differing requirements for storage. To prove that his slide puts batteries up to the 1MW range, while we read here recently about a 1 GWh battery project in California. And even worse, his "Super-Cheap" future batteries at $150/KWh are a dud compared to Tesla's soon-to-be $100/KWh, while his solar panels cost <25% of current prices. Smells strongly of an agenda.
Count me among the highly unconvinced.

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2920 on: July 04, 2018, 07:06:49 AM »
Having lived with a solar system for 6 years I have personally experienced 8 days in a row when my PV array was reduced to less than 20% of my usage. By my calculations I would need at least a 80-90 kWh storage system to be 100% grid independent. I'm ready to do it when the price drops to a couple thousand dollars but for now I'll just use my Volt as a emergency backup system.

Have you heard about that system by Advanced Rail Energy Storage System (ARES)? It's like pumped hydro but on rails and seems like it could be scaled up to multi-gigawatt size. In the future water may become too valuable to use for electric storage anyway seeing how fast we are depleting the water tables.
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etienne

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2921 on: July 04, 2018, 11:34:18 AM »
My experience is that right now batteries are only good for short term storage, like if you do peak shaving or if you load them from a PV array. The problem with the PV array is that the batteries won't work much during hte winter. Bob Wallace had a good point saying that in many cases it is cheaper to overbuid and curtail than to store. Overbilding might even allow you to load a small battery on a good winter day. In Luxembourg, a big battery won't be fully loaded more than once or twice from mid October to March.
For long time storage, I feel that the best solution would be some carbon capture solution that would produce a liquid fuel. Hydrogen is a solution that is now available, but the problem with gas is that you don't have so much kWh per volume, so storage possibilities are limited. Solid fuel (wood ;D) might be more dense, but it is not so easy to manage.

oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2922 on: July 04, 2018, 12:28:47 PM »
I think that batteries should be ideal for day to night storage and intermittent production issues. I am not sure about longer-term storage, I think existing hydro could take a lot of that load especially if managed with such a goal in mind, as well as other solutions as mentioned above.
In addition, natgas peaker plants could take up the slack for those rare periods where wind and sun are available for several days in a row. Similar to the role the diesel generator fulfills at an off-grid location.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2923 on: July 07, 2018, 05:17:37 PM »
Utilities are now more able to handle residential storage — and reap benefits from it.

Hawaii opens up existing solar installations to energy storage
A ruling by state regulators will allow the more than 60,000 Hawaiian homeowners and businesses that have PV systems installed under previous net metering rules to add energy storage without violating their agreement.
Quote
Nowhere in the United States has embraced rooftop solar like Hawaii. Very high retail electricity prices made net-metered rooftop solar a bargain in the island state well before the mainland, with the result that 16-20% of all homes on individual islands hosted PV systems by the end of 2017.

As this is a much higher rate of distributed solar than anywhere in the Continental United States, this and the island’s isolated grid also meant that the state’s utilities hit technical challenges associated with deploying this solar sooner.

And whether or not these technical issues were a sufficient and valid reason, state regulators shut off net metering to new customers in the territory of Hawaiian Electric Companies (HECO) in 2015, instead shifting to policies that de-facto mandated pairing solar with energy storage by forbidding electricity exports.

But while the Hawaii Public Utilities Commission (HPUC) was forcing energy storage upon new customers who sought to install solar, they had not yet made it a reasonable option for existing solar customers, as it would void their net metering agreement.

This changed last Friday, with HPUC issuing an order which approves an option for customers to add energy storage to an existing net-metered installation, without adding any more solar. This goes beyond HECO’s proposal that such systems be allowed for emergency back-up, and will allow energy storage for other purposes. ...
https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2018/07/05/hawaii-opens-up-existing-solar-installations-to-energy-storage/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2924 on: July 10, 2018, 03:59:46 PM »
The problem is not just the source of the power.  It’s how it reaches its customers.

Quote
Before the scorching heat descended on Los Angeles last week, the Department of Water and Power assured residents it had “adequate resources” to meet the electrical demands. It did, in fact, have enough power to go around, utility officials said Monday, after tens of thousands of people had suffered outages. But in many neighborhoods, the DWP said, its aging infrastructure could not handle the surging demand for electricity as Angelenos ran their air conditioning day and night.
http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-dwp-power-out-20180709-story.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2925 on: July 14, 2018, 08:50:09 PM »
Clean energy is catching up to natural gas
The natural gas “bridge” to sustainability may be shorter than expected.
Quote
According to GTM Research, it is peakers that are going to fall first in the US. With the rate of decline in battery prices, they will be competing directly with peakers in a few years and beating them consistently by the mid-2020s.

Of the 20 GW of peakers slated for between now and 2030, GTM estimates, 10 GW or more could get beat out by batteries. “I can’t see a reason why we should ever build a gas peaker again in the US after, say, 2025,” said Shayle Kann, then a senior adviser at GTM.
https://www.vox.com/platform/amp/energy-and-environment/2018/7/13/17551878/natural-gas-markets-renewable-energy
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oren

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2926 on: July 15, 2018, 12:54:31 AM »
We will need some peakers for those rare periods of several consecutive days of low sun and low wind.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2927 on: July 15, 2018, 05:09:08 AM »
Two points.

1) In the rare case of several days of inadequate solar and wind, it's not peakers we'll need, Combined Cycle Gas is much more efficient in sustained operation.  It will be sustained operation that we will need because we will not only need to fill the shortfall, but also to recharge the batteries.

2)  Even if we did need peaker plants, that doesn't mean that we will need plants beyond those already built.

etienne

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2928 on: July 15, 2018, 07:14:47 AM »
There is more than one solution to produce electricity, cogeneration plan, hydro without storage... are possible. The interesting point when batteries do the load balancing is that electricity production can be done in an optimized configuration. This might be the re-birth of base-load production and the end of peakers.
Base load with renewables is mainly hydro, wood gasification, tide energy. Unfortunately, these are expensive renewables.
Don’t know if trash can be seen as renewable energy, but this is also an interesting base load energy.

etienne

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2929 on: July 15, 2018, 11:07:31 AM »
I forgot in the list above the methanisation of biological waste that can be used to produce heat and electricity. Storage of methane is complicated because of the byproducts of the methanisation.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2930 on: July 15, 2018, 04:14:53 PM »
I forgot in the list above the methanisation of biological waste that can be used to produce heat and electricity. Storage of methane is complicated because of the byproducts of the methanisation.
Which byproducts are you referring to?
Terry

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etienne

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2932 on: July 17, 2018, 10:44:32 PM »
I forgot in the list above the methanisation of biological waste that can be used to produce heat and electricity. Storage of methane is complicated because of the byproducts of the methanisation.
Which byproducts are you referring to?
Terry

A friend told me that methane coming from biomethanisation can't be stored because there would be too much components that would be agressive for the steel of the bottles and for the rubber of the joins. It would be too expensive to remove these in order to allow storage and bruning it directly to produce electricity would be better. I'm not a specialist, but it seemed possible. Here in Luxembourg, biomethanisation is made mainly with grass, corn and manure from cows and pigs.

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2933 on: July 18, 2018, 03:10:17 AM »
Contaminant from manure has H2S and sulfur oxides, the latter turn to sulfuric acid with any humidity at all. Very corrosive, attacked stainless steel milk trailer parked beside a pig manure to methane operation i am familiar with.

Landfill methane for some reason has high silicon content (?!) which requires expensive filtrations.

sidd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2934 on: July 18, 2018, 04:55:44 AM »
Landfill gas contains siloxanes which are used in cosmetics.
"Siloxanes are a group of man-made organic compounds that can differ in composition. They are frequently found in cosmetic and personal hygiene products, health care, food ingredients, plastics and other industrial products.
Increased usage leads to increased presence in landfill and wastewater processing facilities. When biogas containing siloxanes is combusted, i.e. in a boiler, turbine, generator, or CHP unit, silicone dioxide (SiO2) particles – essentially sand – are created and contaminate engine and exhaust components downstream. " Source: http://www.dcl-inc.com/pdf/siloxane-cleanup/DCLA-Siloxane_Removal_Technology.pdf

sidd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2935 on: July 18, 2018, 07:27:15 AM »
Tanx. Been wondering bout that for years.

sidd

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2936 on: July 18, 2018, 09:17:11 PM »
Palau is in the middle of a new experiment: Over the next year and a half, the country will shift to 100% renewable energy, at no cost to the government, in what is likely to be the fastest national transition to renewable energy ever to occur.

This island nation is making the fastest-ever shift to renewables
The island nation of Palau plans to stop buying diesel and go 100% solar by the end of 2019–and offer a blueprint for other island nations to do the same.
https://amp.fastcompany.com/90203041/this-island-nation-is-making-the-fastest-ever-shift-to-renewables

Cross post in Paris 2015 Agreement thread.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2937 on: July 19, 2018, 10:49:35 AM »
Things are going a bit wrong.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/17/iea-warns-of-worrying-trend-as-global-investment-in-renewables-falls

Quote
The world’s energy watchdog has sounded the alarm over a “worrying” pause in the shift to clean energy after global investment in  fell 7% to $318bn (£240bn) last year.

The International Energy Agency said the decline is set to continue into 2018, threatening energy security, climate change and air pollution goals.

Fossil fuels increased their share of energy supply investment for the first time since 2014, to $790bn, and will play a significant role for years on current trends, the IEA said.

Investment in coal power dropped sharply but was offset by an uptick in oil and gas spending, the World Energy Investment report found.
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rboyd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2938 on: July 22, 2018, 04:06:15 PM »
China reducing support for solar leading to a large reduction in solar growth forecasts for this year.

https://renewablesnow.com/news/gtm-cuts-by-40-2018-solar-forecast-for-china-615667/

Renewable energy investment fell by 1% in the first half of 2018, with a big drop in solar investment offset by a jump in wind investment (which should continue with a rush to install before US subsidies run out in 2019).

"We see U.S. wind investment increasing in 2018-2019 as developers rush to finish projects in time to qualify for federal tax credits,” said Amy Grace, BNEF head of North American research."

https://renewablesnow.com/news/solar-investments-drop-in-h1-2018-wind-is-up-bnef-619468/

Overall, not a good picture - looks like CO2 emissions will jump significantly this year (driven by China), and continuing after that.

https://www.ft.com/content/98839504-6334-11e8-90c2-9563a0613e56
« Last Edit: July 22, 2018, 04:13:13 PM by rboyd »

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2939 on: July 22, 2018, 04:37:50 PM »
rboyd,
See my comments on the nuclear power thread.
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,776.msg163721.html#msg163721

Since that post I would note that General Electric, one of the few approved/certified nuclear power contractors, has cut it's forecast (again). I can imagine GE getting a government bailout on 'security concerns'. Unlike Trump's penchant to whip out the 'national security' ploy to sidestep congress and existing law there maybe good reason to do it now for GE's power division.

As to the future of solar I'm afraid we have entered into a period of great uncertainty.
As it stands today the industry is loosing money as the glut grows and prices fall.
http://pvinsights.com/
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rboyd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2940 on: July 22, 2018, 10:37:48 PM »
jacksmith4tx,

The US tariffs on imported solar pv certainly wont help either, as with the throttling back of new growth in Germany as they build out the required grid changes (Germany hit 41.5% renewable electricity in the first half of 2018)

https://energytransition.org/2018/01/german-energy-consumption-2017/

https://reneweconomy.com.au/renewables-hit-record-41-5-germany-first-half-2018/

The only expansion of nuclear is happening in China, Russia, India and the UK. De-commissioning in the US will produce a drop in nuclear output. With static/falling electricity demand, renewables plus nat gas (yep, worse than coal when the methane leaks are taken into account) plus energy efficiency will slowly kill nuclear in the US. Unless Trump believes in making nuclear great again (MaNGA).

We are already at 493 ppm CO2e, even when using a low number for methane equivalence. Worse than the "worst case" UN IPCC scenario. Through the 450 ppm CO2e mark (net of the level of sulphur dioxide dimming asssumed by the UN IPCC) within 4-5 years.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2941 on: July 24, 2018, 10:29:02 PM »
Tesla Powerpacks aid Samoa’s transition to 100% renewable energy
Quote
“Without the new battery energy storage systems and microgrid controller, the system will not be able to operate efficiently with such a high percentage of solar penetration in Samoa of 55%. Since the batteries have been running on trial tests, the quality (voltage and frequency) of the electricity supply has been very steady and not fluctuating as before,” he said.

Tuilaepa further stated that Tesla’s battery storage system, together with the country’s ongoing renewable energy projects, would ultimately allow Samoa to power itself on 100% renewable energy by 2025. Over the years, the state has been pushing clean energy solutions to its power system, and between July 2017 to June 2018 alone, 48% of the electricity in Samoa was generated from renewable energy systems. ...
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-powerpack-samoa-renewable-energy-transition/
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Sciguy

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2942 on: July 25, 2018, 06:25:42 PM »
While the trade war between the USA and China and China's decision to slow down new solar installations will temporarily slow the growth of solar, there is a silver lining to the cloud:

https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/Is-The-Solar-Industry-Really-In-Trouble.html

Quote
It seems that not everyone is as gloomy as Goldman. In fact, the PV panel glut that will result from China’s decision to cut subsidies for new installations could become a silver lining on what could otherwise be considered a disaster for the industry.

As BNEF correctly projects, the more panels there are, the lower their prices will be, and the lower the prices, the more attractive they would be. Also, these glut-caused lower prices will mitigate the impact of the Trump tariffs on the U.S. solar industry, although they won’t be able to offset them completely.

There are also new solar markets opening up: Saudi Arabia is one very ambitious new addition to the industry. A survey from market research company 6WREsearch recently forecast that the Saudi solar market will expand at a compound annual rate of 30 percent between 2018 and 2024. The UAE is also very ambitious in the solar power department, planning to source a quarter of its energy from solar installations by 2030. Africa as a whole is another market that will likely become emerging force in solar power.

The fact is that the solar industry won’t stop growing, despite tariffs and the suspension of new projects in the world’s biggest solar market. These developments could slow down its growth for a while, but with more and more players entering the solar field any negative effects would be temporary. It’s worth noting that BNEF also forecast that China’s role in the global solar market will decline in the medium term and it will account for only 25 percent of new installations in 2020, down from more than half in 2017.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2943 on: July 26, 2018, 02:00:30 PM »
A good look at the solar shingles and how they are mounted on the roof.

Tesla Solar Roof tile design and installation showcased in first responders video
Quote
Archer further noted that while the diode trunk harness operates at a high voltage, testing on the Solar Roof system indicates that there is almost zero risk of shock or electrocution when cutting or crushing the tiles. There is also almost no risk of electric shock when cutting through the diode trunk harness.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-solar-roof-cal-fire-emergency-response-training-video/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2944 on: July 26, 2018, 05:16:35 PM »
"China solar manufacturers raise first-half output despite capacity cap"
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-solar/china-solar-manufacturers-raise-first-half-output-despite-capacity-cap-association-idUSKBN1KG0J9

Quote
(China) said in June that it would cut subsidies for new projects and cap capacity additions at 30 gigawatts (GW) for this year, down from a record 53 GW in 2017, as it tried to “optimize” the pace of construction amid overcapacity fears.

Despite the policy adjustments, manufacturers continued to ramp up production in the first half of 2018, even though total installed generation capacity remained unchanged compared to the same period of last year, China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) Vice-Chairman Wang Bohua said.

“The solar power sector should strengthen self-discipline whether domestically or overseas, and it should refrain from false propaganda and from price-gouging cut-throat competition,” Wang told an industry conference.

He said the production of silicon wafers - a key solar component - rose 39 percent year-on-year to 50 GW in the first half, with solar module output rising to 39 GW, up 22 percent.

What's the long game here? Overproduction + cheaper currency = world domination in PV? Or is this the MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) strategy. I guess we will have to see where this excess production ends up. India could soak up the entire surplus (if they have a place to put it). The Saudi want to do 100GW so some might go there.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2945 on: July 26, 2018, 11:48:39 PM »
Well it looks like the tariffs are killing the US solar industry. First Solar (largest US manufacturer) just reported a loss and lower their forecast. FSLR down 6% after earnings.
First Solar said it lost $49 million, or 46 cents a share, in the quarter, versus earnings of $52 million, or 50 cents a share, a year ago. Sales fell to $309 million from $623 million a year ago. While they do expect full year earnings to be positive their pipeline is shrinking. No viability past 2020.
https://www.pv-tech.org/news/first-solars-sales-at-low-point-for-the-year-in-q2
"Gross margin range was lowered slightly to be in the range of 20.5% to 21.5%, compared to previous guidance of 21.5% to 22.5%.
Total module shipments are expected to be in the range of 2.8GW to 2.9GW, down from 2.9GW to 3.0GW."

Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2946 on: July 27, 2018, 04:37:45 AM »
This renewable energy forecast was released today (July 28 2018) by the NREL (National Renewable Energy Laboratory). A lot of people in the renewable energy food chain watch this official government report and politicians cite it when making policy.
https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2018/summary.html

This update, fourth in the series, includes the recent tariffs, tax effects and interest rates. This is US only but it includes the full spectrum of power sources and fuels. There is no reference to storage so solar and wind get very low capacity factors. If this report is to be believed it looks like coal and gas will still be the dominate electricity source out to 2050 even though they project a big increase in natural gas prices. Without a price for carbon or pollution coal will still be a major source of power.

As with any modeled version of reality, your millage may vary.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

BenB

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2947 on: July 27, 2018, 12:23:47 PM »
I don't think First Solar's results are related to the tariffs, as they're not affected by them, and in fact benefit from them to the extent that other suppliers are affected. The financial results vary a lot from quarter to quarter, so I wouldn't read too much into that, and the slight reduction in the sales forecast for 2018 seems related to issues with the ramp-up of new/upgraded factories rather than demand. Another way of saying that they don't have visibility beyond 2020 is that all of their production for the next couple of years is sold out. After that, it isn't, but that's fairly normal. So far this year they've booked 3.7GW and shipped 1.0GW, so I don't really see that their pipeline is shrinking.

jacksmith4tx

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2948 on: July 27, 2018, 01:41:32 PM »
Siemas Gamesa, one of the big three wind turbine manufactures (GE & Vestas) has reported lower margins due to trade tariffs and higher material costs. Due to the extremely competitive markets the company doubts they can pass along cost increases to customers. Revenue fell 21 percent to 2.14 billion euros ($2.49 billion) in the April-June quarter, while adjusted EBIT fell 26 percent to 156 million euros due to lower prices.
Siemens Gamesa, majority owned by Germany’s Siemens (SIEGn.DE) after the merger of its wind power business with Spain’s Gamesa, said order intake for its onshore business was 1,660 megawatts (MW) in the quarter, up from 693 MW a year earlier but below the 2,464 MW in the preceding quarter.

The firm’s total order backlog hit a record 23.23 billion euros.
Science is a thought process, technology will change reality.

rboyd

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Re: Renewable Energy
« Reply #2949 on: July 27, 2018, 04:39:42 PM »
The US has a highly inefficient industrial policy driven through the Military Industrial Complex (MIC) that is designed to enrich defence contractors while turning out increasingly sophisticated crap - such as the F35 and Littoral Combat Ship (see links below), together with massively expensive aircraft carriers that can be sunk by a single long range cruise missile. Andrei Martyanov has written an interesting book on the subject of the US losing military supremacy while outspending every other country by large amounts.

China only spends 2% of GDP on defence (growing rapidly as their GDP increases) with a much lower cost base and a focus on more effective defensive weapons. Its industrial policy is targeted to developing the non-defence industry - especially targeted on upgrading the technology levels. This includes support for the renewables industry, as well a drive to replace their dependencies on US technology. Policies that the USA followed during its catch up phase in the 1800s.

Over-militarization and financialization are symptoms of a nation in decline.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/what-went-wrong-with-the-f-35-lockheed-martins-joint-strike-fighter/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-24/lockheed-f-35-s-reliability-progress-has-stalled-pentagon-told
https://taskandpurpose.com/navy-littoral-combat-ship-problems/

The Book by Martyanov
https://www.amazon.com/Losing-Military-Supremacy-American-Strategic-ebook/dp/B07DVSM76H/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1532702350&sr=8-1&keywords=andrei+martyanov