This report was just released which examines several current and future energy scenarios.
Electric Power Research Institute
https://www.epri.comDeveloping a Framework for Integrated Energy Network Planning
https://www.epri.com/#/pages/product/3002010821/In the white paper there are 7 topics covered in depth:
Capacity expansion
Distributed energy resources
Distribution planning
Integrated resource planning
Production cost
Renewable integration
Transmission planning
Over 70 pages of research including 10 Key Resource Planning Challenges:
1. Incorporating operational detail.
As emerging power system resources (primarily solar and wind) replace synchronous generators (for example, coal, natural gas, and nuclear) that traditionally have provided needed operational reliability services, resource planners will need to explicitly consider operational reliability capabilities of candidate resources and methods to mitigate potential impacts.
2. Increasing modeling granularity.
Computer models for conducting long-range resource planning need to include finer geographic resolution and temporal granularity to address new resource planning challenges.
3. Integrating generation, transmission, and distribution planning.
Future resource planning will benefit from closer interaction of planners across the entire electricity supply chain to understand how decisions at one planning level may impact other levels as well as the ability to make trade-offs between potential investments in each of these subsystems to optimize the future overall electric power system. Closer integration driven by value reverses the recent trend to separate generation, transmission, and distribution planning to promote a competitive environment.
4. Expanding analysis boundaries and interfaces.
Electric companies are beginning to be asked by regulators and external stakeholders to address issues outside of their electric service territories and in other parts of the economy as part of their resource planning activities. Efficient electrification of end-use sectors such as transportation, in which electricity historically has played little role will further expand these boundaries.
5. Addressing uncertainty and managing risk.
There is a growing need for resource planners to account more explicitly for key uncertainties when developing resource plans and to adopt new approaches for managing evolving corporate risks.
6. Improving forecasting.
Improved and more granular forecasting is critical for robust long-term resource planning. More accurate forecasts of electric load, VER production, DER adoption, future natural gas prices, and weather are high priorities.
7. Improving modeling of customer behavior and interaction.
Robust system planning in the future will need to incorporate deeper understanding of electric customer behavior, incentives to change customer behavior, and how customer behavior may impact the performance of emerging customer resources for energy supply, storage, and demand.
8. Incorporating new planning objectives and constraints.
Future resource plans will need to be optimized to achieve objectives beyond traditional least-cost resource adequacy—including resiliency, flexibility, and new environmental and societal objectives while adhering to system operational reliability constraints.
9. Integrating wholesale power markets.
Increasingly, planners will need to consider the evolution of wholesale power markets that provide opportunities for companies to buy and sell energy, capacity, and ancillary services along with the impact of these markets on the economic viability of resources that provide reliability services and other desired system attributes.
10. Supporting expanded stakeholder engagement.
In recent years, public involvement in company resource planning has increased dramatically. Electric utilities are engaged now more than ever in designing extensive stakeholder engagement processes related to resource planning and responding to stakeholder comments.