2019 in a nutshell.
GFS runs, among other premier weather models in use, have not overall been great at detecting upcoming blocking conditions. From top to bottom you see 1 day, 5, 7, 10,
then the *15*, then the 12. (Fig1 Blocking frequency in the GFS forecast using blocking index of Tibaldi and Molteni (1990))
the GFS long range has given us advanced warning of northern blocking patterns all year. When GFS says 300+meter 500mb anomaly in the Arctic at hours +378 +384 you pay attention, it's been effective early warning all year long. It's not better until within 10 days which we all look at on our phone weather apps.
I'm not sure why we have to keep apologizing for using effective forecasting tools. Roughly 25% of the day 15 GFS has indicated catastrophic northern blocking when it was coming. You ever tried detecting anything? That's *good*.
August is going to be as tame as it gets. I will note that this is the first time the polar cell has not been thoroughly ejected from the Arctic since May 1 and we're only just getting there. I don't know what the hell to think about September but I'm thinking about it from a corn crop perspective.
(By the way, trade estimate polls are -20% off the USDA's latest WASDE, which is widely understood to be completely wrong on harvested acres, glad to continue this elsewhere)
October goes back to heat incursions to the Arctic
as per trend and given the AO ... I don't know who expects the AO to pop positive significantly in the remainder of 2019 when its been in the dirt since February in the most complete & total polar cell malfunction ever recorded
...published multiple times by multiple top researchers and institutions like Met Office, US CLIVAR, Harvard, all pointing to the stratosphere, tied directly to the thickness & influence of Arctic Sea Ice.
~I~ think, The long feared structural shift in atmospheric dynamics is beginning. Solar minimum & thin sea ice both model a -AO -NAO blocked northern hemisphere loaded across the date line. 2019 is the entry to a transition mode where chaos rules reduce predictability. only 3-5 years of BAU is possible in Ag & life in general, unless the Arctic Ocean is cooled.
Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum
https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8535Fast atmospheric response to a sudden thinning of Arctic sea ice
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-015-2629-7Just published new insights via Jet Stream measurements:
Increased shear in the North Atlantic upper-level jet stream over the past four decades
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-019-1465-z