(EDITED: That was a horrific mess that was! It was badly rushed bc students came early. Sorry. Fixed a math error, too.)7/28/2019 stands at 6.19M km sq. 2019 needs an increase of < 10k km sq. for a record low on this date.
Nailed one. Came in at 114k, specifically. Yay, in a sick-to-the-stomach sort of way, eh?
7/30/2012 stood at 6.13M km sq. on this date , a drop of 70k.
7/29/2019 stands at 6.08M km sq., a record low for the date. 2019 needs an increase of < 50k km sq. for a record low on this date.
Analysis:
I'm giving priority to the winds coming off of Greenland, over the CAA and up the Fram/over Svalbard and calling a solid -120k +/-15k.
I see little reason to adjust this after perusing the various images/data. Call it 105k +/-10k, so around 5.975M km sq.Updated: I was looking at NullSchool again and over the time frame of the 30th the heat just gets higher and flows ever deeper into the basin, all over the place. I can't see the 30th being lower than the 29th under those conditions even though winds seemed stronger on the 29th.
Revise to 120k +/-10k, so around 5.96M km sq.
BONUS: I've developed a way to convert JAXA<>NSIDC when one or the other is missing. Since NSIDC comes in much later, we can have some Fun With Numbers: Calling the NSIDC for 7/29 at
6.48M km sq. (Damn. Yet another error: 6:.48, not 6.46. Never post just before teaching...)
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8/10/2012 stood at 4.94M km sq.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 94.67k km sq. for a record low on this post-GAC date. (12 days)
9/15/2012 stood at 3.18M km sq. on this date.
2019 needs an average daily drop of > 60.03k km sq. for a record low on this date. (48 days)
Comment: If we keep getting century drops, we're going to hit both of these. Interestingly, 2012 also had a few days of fairly big losses in late July, then a pause, then the GAC and the 9 Days That Ate The Ice.
Would be cool to see the pattern repeat, just because patterns are cool - but also are often red herrings, but I suppose we should expect a much calmer Aug 2-10 than in '12.
Getting closer....