Atmospheric connections, structure, and long range weather forecasting

[bbr2314]

The data is not yet apparent because the damage is still being done and has not been fully assessed, as sark's posts confirm. Also from the same account -- the soybean yield decrease this year is actually unprecedented.

It should be noted that it took about 2-4 years for the full impacts of the 2007 yield crisis to reverberate across the world. This was when Syria and Libya both collapsed, as did Egypt temporarily. What happens this go-round, especially if 2020 is worse than 2019?

Wyoming is clearly not going to become like Texas, in fact, Yellowstone's anomalies this year may be the coldest in the recent satellite record (no offense, sark). I believe Wyoming is at the center of the ongoing / worsening "cold pole" developing in tandem with the strengthening NAM remnant vortex.

It should be noted that lack of precipitation is the controlling factor for many areas of Greenland that do not have snow, as opposed to warm temps. I actually think this is also true in the High Rockies. Precipitation this year is 50-100% above normal (or higher) and much of that departure has come in the form of snowfall, and that is why we are now seeing yearly temps up to -6F over the Dakotas -- anomalies that could worsen further by December!

Yearly max temps up to 8F below normal is literally unprecedented in the modern record for the US (at least as far as I know). What happens if 10F, then 15F are around the corner? If winter expands further into May and June and September and October in these regions in the near future, which it is already showing signs of doing, we will hit those numbers very easily and in very short order. And by that point July and August will be next, and they will fall very quickly (IMO) and in tandem with the BOE (2031?).

While a Wyoming-to-Texas climate scenario is certainly possible, the increasing amount of moisture available at all times of year is (IMO) going to result in the snow line beginning to encompass much of the higher Rockies all year round. And this occurring already is why we are now seeing these ridiculous anomalies and failing crops.

[El Cid]

And now let's see the truth of geopotential height above the Arctic between May-Sep. Two pictures. 1950-80 ("baseline" of sorts), and 2016-19.

heights are getting higher everywhere, note Africa and the Carribean, but no disappearance of the polar cell so far

[bbr2314]

The polar cell has not disappeared, it has failed in its old form, and your maps scale is insufficiently specific to capture this change.

Here is the annual temp map for the US since 2016. We evidently go through cascading snowfall cycles that last multiple years (2011-2012 (WARM)->2012-2013 (transitioning to cold)->2013-2014 (COLD centered in Midwest / Rockies)->2014-2015 (COLD centered in Great Lakes) / reset (Super Nino, WARM winter 2015-2016). 2016->2019 is below.



We are probably going to see another reset or two before the BOE occurs. Until that point, there will not be enough +OHC in the Arctic to result in substantial year-round snowcover outside of Greenland, so the reaction will continue running out of steam (although its severity is likely to continue increasing). But by 2031? With a BOE? Maybe it won't run out of steam.

It is interesting to note the sheer decline in annual temps since 2016 across the High Plains. Splotches of South Dakota were 50F for a 365-day average around this date in 2016. In 2019, they are under 40F for the last full-year period -- that is a HUGE shift! There is a huge swath of the northern plains that has colder temps than most of the highest Rockies did in 2016.

[bbr2314]

Who needs crops!



Hopefully not us

[Klondike Kat]

Freezes ended the 2019 growing season across much of the western Corn Belt. Impacts on crop yields have not yet been fully assessed. U.S. corn & soybean development in other regions continues at record-slow pace.

https://twitter.com/usda_oce/status/1184823930688888832

You are correct in that the impacts have not been fully assessed.  That will not be known until years' end.  However, the markets are rarely off significiantly, and the current estimate of 13.8 million bu has not changed, and while the futures price went up slightly after the blizzard, it has settled back down to where it stood at the end of September. 

Both Dakotas combined account for about 8.5% of the total corn production in the U.S.  Most of the corn there reached maturity, before the blizzard hit.  Some farmers may be challenged to bring in the remainder of the crop before the expected hard freeze next week.   All in all, your prediction of a 20% hit to production seems rather pessimistic.

[HapHazard]

I think I took a wrong turn somewhere & ended up in a thread about corn?

[binntho]

arcticapocalypticpoetry

good one!

[binntho]

An interesting article about current status and impending changes in the Polar vortex and the resulting changes in weather in Europe and the US. Large blocking highs over Greenland and Alaska, massive heat incursions into the Arctic, sever cold into central Canada and US, central and eastern Europe.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/news/pattern-change-cold-air-usa-europe-snow-expand-fa/?fbclid=IwAR1IkV0ym-7zFnlgzaK5U3rd4RQ5frUsPBqPRNEg1caFY47M-_PUGUZBVCo

They are predicting good news for snow lovers in areas where the Italian meterological site ilmeteo.it was only last week predicting minimal snow this winter (so much for long range forecasting, huh!)

[sark]

Nothing anyone says sounds right to me any more.  It was a mistake to bring up markets around humans.

My mistake

Fight me

[sark]

I read somewhere, when looking up the cold pole problem, that not conserving atmospheric angular momentum would also increase precipitation. 

But we don't have a cold South Pole right now.  In fact,

Both polar cells are failing now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml

[sark]

bbr and others... now I see it.  compression snows and cut off lows

SNOW I SEE IT

[apocalyps]

I read somewhere, when looking up the cold pole problem, that not conserving atmospheric angular momentum would also increase precipitation. 

But we don't have a cold South Pole right now.  In fact,

Both polar cells are failing now.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/z200anim.shtml

I have trouble visualising the collapse of the southpole polar cell. Could you explain what is happening there? Love your insights and others, it made me sign up after lurking for 5 months

[ReverendMilkbone]

Is there any connection between the breakdown of the polar vortex and the crazy winds we are having in California?  PG&E is about to cut power again for the weekend. 

[sark]

IMHO

Yes, if it is weather in the continental midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere.  what we experience of weather is largely derived from the expression of the polar cell in this fluid system

Outside of the central tropics, the Earth's atmosphere progresses East, headed toward the rising sun.  Westerly Atmosphere flow.  Prevailing winds from the West

Overall the sky is flinging forward of the Earth's rotation, spinning faster than the planet.  this atmosphere direction is called zonal flow.  U+

it's a spiral from equator to pole.  like a twist top ice cream cone

where it twists, there's a jet stream

the polar cell is like a candy cherry garnish.  but your treat is melting in the sun & a little pool underneath the cherry has sent it adrift and it's wobbling around on top.

why not

Zonal flow causes winds from the West, or Westerlies, and these winds progress zonally like from Seattle to New York.

this could be described with flight of aircraft and angular momentum in the atmosphere & earth but thrust and friction and landing weight, a bit of a stretch for me, let's be honest

the opposite of zonal is meridional and that's wind blowing North South.  V+  Well,  since about the mid-1990's and definitely increasing the entire time since then is WHAT!?  not just of the jet stream, but everything.  literally weather extremes of ridges and lows and pretty much all storms.  Your situation is exactly that, something that always existed, but now it's severe weather.  The jet stream is crashing into the Earth.

well the major torque exerted between the rotating earth, the rotating fluid core, and the rotating atmosphere, and hell Retrograde planets & the Sun too, it is conserved.  AAM -is- slowing over time in our measurements.  Meridional measurements are pretty good and um, wow

https://www.timeanddate.com/time/earth-rotation.html#calc-daylength

because all the North South long contorted dissolving breaking jet stream action has begun scrubbing into the Earth with meridional friction.  letting the clutch out.

the Earth is speeding up.  the Earth's relative motion with regard to the atmosphere is catching up.  Days are shorter and gravity waves are sound

Climate models need to have atmospheric angular momentum reinforced with a parameter so it is not lost, because they're still practicing on the QBO

if GW isn't conserved in an atmospheric model, the energy basically gets "rained out" and the south pole gets very cold, because they don't have waves that can jack into the strength of the Antarctic winter polar vortex, which would become deeper in a warming model

the suspected reason for the too cold pole is the lack of wave interaction with the winter PV over Antarctica... so this SSW we are still having over Antarctica nearing its final warming.  Brutal

Because the slowing at the north pole has translated to the Southern hemisphere with some torque of its own and the whole entire atmosphere got VERY slow recently, about the slowest on record from when I had a chance to see a good record of AAM.  Right around Oct 1

So yeah pretty much any annoying weather is your own personal observation of it since the 90's but obviously since 2014

[El Cid]

Atmospheric angular momentum:

nice summary on this site, worth reading:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/90558-the-fundamentals-of-atmospheric-angular-momentum/

and a study:

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/qj.3600

[sark]

MJO ensemble forecasted into the circle of death

meaning what?

http://www.njstrongweatherforum.com/t511-what-is-the-mjo-really

on the first image in this thread you'll notice the MJO chart is up to date, because it was linked to a live image url. so the comment regarding what was shown at the time is unrelated to the up to date chart... you gotta scroll down to the bottom to see what it looked like in someone's response

[sark]

Still have only seen the one site with an up to date charted AAM reading, atlas.niu.edu

This is a good explainer that describes what "Weak GWO" means, as is currently forecast

https://www.weather.gov/media/grr/GLOM2015/Presentations/Marino_GWOSevereStorms.pdf

weak global winds

it's been this way for four months.  I'd like to know what is the longest, weakest period of GWO in the archive

[sark]

DUN DUN DUNNNN

[sark]

This is Ed Berry https://www.linkedin.com/in/ed-berry

One of the authors of the global synoptic–dynamic model (GSDM).  The product was available as GWO phase space on the CPC's website but it is currently offline there.

[sark]

plain 500mbs

First, well,
you see it

then a moment 48 hours from now

then the latest CFSv2 for November

lastly, November '18

spooky.

[sark]

I actually hate this

November 18

Actual temp readings in the Arctic are *often* split into two poles of cold, and dear Lord the actual atmosphere responds

Why wasn't this a problem when it was driven by solar minimum and thick sea ice weather?  What the hell happened in 1977?  because the thin sea ice is part of what causes this

Now you got solar minimum & thin sea ice piling on and creating a deepening crisis wherein atmospheric angular momentum has fallen negative for 4 months and doesn't appear to be rising yet, in fact signs point to nope

Well you would too if you had to flow around this damn thing

[sark]

New CanSIPS is out and this is the prediction for November

[sark]

This is an 18 October Global Synoptic-Dynamic Model plot showing 4 weeks of information that is able to be conveyed on a single chart.  It's called a phase space diagram and you'd have to watch Ed Berry explain it on YouTube. 

I had the good fortune to run into this recently. (first image)  It shows conditions leading to barely neutral to negative global wind

The AAM is computed by interolating forecast of the operational numerical weather model:  http://aam.earthrotation.net/rt/

GIFS 1 & 2 Northern Hemisphere & Southern Hemisphere show complete polar vortex breakdown at all  levels.  Something is wrong.

Below that is the ECMWF at hour 240 around November 11 which is still on an 8 day cycle of the polar cell gyrating in & out as it turns atop the Earth.  Once the rest of this area fills in and the winter tropospheric polar cell gets going, there are models indicating very low sea level pressure over the Arctic in DJF.  Well, maybe the built up atmospheric angular momentum that is conserved in models by parameter wants to now push it forward and create a very strong zonal jet stream over the U.S.  why not

I hope it works that way but about half of these waves are breaking through the jet stream in late Summer - Autumn

Anyway, a lot of the other indicators like La Nina temps off the South American West coast suggest continued negative global wind speed (Mr) as measured atmospheric angular momentum.

In that lecture linked above on this page of Ed Berry in 2018, he speaks about a risk.  Atmospheric super-rotation, a condition in which tropical convection firing in the ITCZ tends to accelerate the atmosphere faster than the Earth's rotation

Ed also attests to a recent (since the 90's) trend of lower AAM, while he also asks *why* does thin sea ice lead to a negative Arctic Oscillation.

I think they lost faith in the GSDM after 2018.  Just like the Madden-Julian Oscillation long-range weather indicator is increasingly stuck in Phase 8, 1,  and 2

Academics aren't allowed to say this stuff, and in Ed's lecture he doesn't finish the sentence, but an atmospheric super-rotation is what most planets do.  Like Venus.  He may have been about to describe the differences in where waves originate on such bodies

We are at points on both of those renowned teleconnections GWO and MJO indicating low atmospheric angular momentum and seem to be stuck there

In forecast these products rely on models but they have to be watched real time, but they should outperform numerical models

well they do.  the remaining polar low is in such a shape that it causes a split vortex.  We see it when polar arms get spun out by tropical highs busting right through the jet stream and sticking to the North Pole until they dissipate. 

Maybe a big driver of that is solar minimum.  I kinda pray it.  It's also super obvious that another big factor is thin Arctic sea ice.

What I don't think *anybody* expected was according disruption of the Southern polar cell.

We're right now seeing a sudden stratospheric warming following through from the stratosphere to the ground and it is predicted to final warm the winter polar vortex over Antarctica in the next few days.  Meanwhile, Looks increasingly like the nascent Northern polar vortex is being split in November.  This could be the earliest polar vortex sudden warming in NH winter ever.  I tend to think it will slightly defy description.

what we are seeing since 2013 and especially 2016, 2018, and 2019 is atmospheric restructuring.  all the processes of a stable global interglacial distribution of ground temperatures are broken.  the polar vortex, jet stream, zonal mass, and geopotential height over the poles.

this is the hothouse Eocene climate waking up.  how long is that supposed to take, 3-15 years?

WHY?  Well, one explanation is a self-reinforcing bad feedback loop worldwide with all these fatal factors piling on at once.

Jesus, be a sun spot.

[sark]

hour 198 on the GFS starts to get realistic in terms of jet stream.  there is now an early indication that the block forming up near Alaska will result in a strong anticyclonic jet stream in the Arctic.  This is what happened October 26th over Greenland.  That frozen in anticyclone was also picked up by GFS at hour 198.  It pierces the polar front and results in a strong anticyclonic jet stream inside the Arctic Circle.

*16 days.  up from 0 and 4 and 8*

Winter is powerful.  it will get cold.  There is a polar front beginning to  form up as the rest of the Arctic Ocean area cools.  there will be a winter stratospheric polar vortex.  I just don't think it'll be very stable, which is adding to the problem of anticyclones cutting the polar cell in half, which is adding to the split condition

so the conjecture is, this is a self-reinforcing dynamic mode change.  That would explain why 2 years looked damn similar in a row

[sark]

The Southern Hemisphere's winter polar vortex has been destroyed by the Sudden Stratospheric Warming that began at the end of austral winter.

I will take questions now.

[El Cid]

Meanwhile, Looks increasingly like the nascent Northern polar vortex is being split in November. 

There is absolutely no polar vortex spilt on any models, any timeframes at all

[sark]

Meanwhile, Looks increasingly like the nascent Northern polar vortex is being split in November. 

There is absolutely no polar vortex spilt on any models, any timeframes at all

This is for 12 Nov at 50hPa

[sark]

notice the tropopause?

[sark]

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

signs of warming already

[El Cid]

This is the 10hpa forecast as long as they make it (GFS). NO SPLIT AT ALL.

I hope your other data and musings are more exact

[sark]

This is the 10hpa forecast as long as they make it (GFS). NO SPLIT AT ALL.

I hope your other data and musings are more exact

that's a different attribute at a different level.  no bite on the attitude.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=39&run=18&time=252&lid=OP&h=1&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

[jdallen]

This is the 10hpa forecast as long as they make it (GFS). NO SPLIT AT ALL.

I hope your other data and musings are more exact

that's a different attribute at a different level.  no bite on the attitude.

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=2&model=gfs&var=39&run=18&time=252&lid=OP&h=1&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Posing a question, as I have no rigorous understanding as yet of the dynamics here.

Would it perhaps be implied here that there is increasing turbulence resulting in disconnections in behavior between layers of atmosphere? 

Or, if the apparent disconnections is purely coincidental, is what we are seeing evidence of increased turbulence and increased disruption of existing patterns?

[sark]

Posing a question, as I have no rigorous understanding as yet of the dynamics here.

Would it perhaps be implied here that there is increasing turbulence resulting in disconnections in behavior between layers of atmosphere? 

Or, if the apparent disconnections is purely coincidental, is what we are seeing evidence of increased turbulence and increased disruption of existing patterns?

That's an interesting question, afraid I can't touch it.

As far as what's in the forecast, the tropospheric polar vortex (or simply "Arctic air") is going to divide rather neatly into two chunks in the week Nov 7-14.  When looking at 50hPa the atmosphere responds in these GFS forecasts.  So basically you get  a perturbation and split polar vortex in the *troposphere* which then propogates upward and reaches as high as the top of the tropopause.

Does this convulsion enter the stratosphere and impact the winter Strat PV?

Not yet.

https://www.stratobserve.com/misc_vort3d

[sark]

There is a convulsion coming

[sark]

https://imgur.com/a/eIdjZT0

The 00Z GFS runs away starting at hour 240

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019110300&fh=240

[sark]

When angular momentum is not conserved by parameterization in a weather model, it leads to a too-cold Southern Pole, as the models cannot resolve waves interfering with the stratospheric PV in the Southern hemisphere, and the lost momentum is rained out as precipitation.  Just sayin'

total rainfall should be showing increased in 2019 more than can be expected by the measly +1.3C global temp. I understand it can be difficult to get a good measurement of that.

Our global winds are crashing.

wind speeds at the surface rising, that means atmosphere slowing, right?

[bbr2314]

This is super far out but it illustrates what Sark is describing perfectly. And while it is super far out I think we will see a look like this by the middle of the month.



Oh, and the US is freaking FRIGID for the duration. The 00z GFS actually shows a major snowstorm in the Southeast, although I don't think it will verify, it is only 5 days out.

I would not be shocked if many locations in Montana etc "the Triangle of Coldness I will not shut up about" record their coldest Novembers on record. What is most disturbing is that there is such a seemingly strong correlation between this unprecedented cold in the NW Rockies and the ice-free conditions in the Bering etc. So what happens in 2025 when it is even worse, and doesn't refreeze at all, and we are piling up snow in these regions from September to May, and then it doesn't melt?



While the above frame is over 10 days out, there are a couple before then that look very similar, mimicking the weather we have seen since September, which I imagine will only get worse.

[El Cid]

Lower level winter "splits" are not interesting, they happen every year very routinely. Does not mean anything. Just one example (the first date I randomly picked had it). You can find tons like these every year

[sark]

It usually doesn't happen all Spring & Summer & Autumn with a period of under 16 days, and then spread to the Southern Hemisphere.

Best I can suggest is check the rainfall quantities.  This should have increased more than the temperature increase would suggest, due to the falling AAM.

if this was 1968 or 1977 there would be less of a problem because the geopotential height over the Arctic was deep.  thick sea ice.  Now we seem to have the issue outlined above.  whatever influences are piled on here are resulting in a system that is showing signs of breaking.

How many stratospheric splits and SSW has the NHEM experienced since 2013?  Seems it ain't 0.6 per year.

[sark]

Lower level winter "splits" are not interesting, they happen every year very routinely. Does not mean anything. Just one example (the first date I randomly picked had it). You can find tons like these every year

this is why we do things like look at anomalies

but this isn't going to be assessed here on this forum.  i'm not here to play scientist, and I'm sure as hell not the one to assess this information

you'd have to beat this, not point at random

[sark]

these are the years that stuck out in JJA anomalies and a couple of them beat '19 in severity & focus on the North Pole

but now we're kind of pushing 7 months straight :/

I'll have to re-do this on all the years in the archive using May-Oct to know if it beats all.  meanwhile the 06Z GFS is coming in

[sark]

500 millibar height anomaly +/- 90 meters, period of May 1 - October 31 from 1948 - 2019

[El Cid]

Of course we have positive geopotential height anomalies over the arctic. That happens almost by definition! Arctic Amplification creates warmer air above the Arctic hence the anomalies.
And yes, as we move forward, the anomalies will be bigger and bigger.
Yet, it does not mean that the world is ending (yet) 

[sark]

Of course we have positive geopotential height anomalies over the arctic. That happens almost by definition! Arctic Amplification creates warmer air above the Arctic hence the anomalies.
And yes, as we move forward, the anomalies will be bigger and bigger.
Yet, it does not mean that the world is ending (yet)

Strawman

1.
an intentionally misrepresented proposition that is set up because it is easier to defeat than an opponent's real argument.

and it's a real habit

[sark]

This line of thinking should be assessed by someone else.  It's not going to be debated emotionally here on this hobby forum.  I'm not here to play scientist with you lot or participate in a nerd fight.

How many times can I repeat the thesis in question?  It must be a round peg for square holes.

Polar vortex destruction is leading to decreasing atmospheric angular momentum, which is a feedback upon itself.

Major factors include:

1) ocean heat / thin sea ice
2) solar minimum
3) annual geopotential heights

If this is true, it is an unassessed feedback in dynamics that could meet the definition of abrupt runaway, a self-reinforcing feedback loop that leads to a relatively rapid change of system mode.

If not true, we'll see AAM roar positive, continuing to oscillate along a reasonable trend line, even if long term in decline.  In that case, it's just abrupt normal apocalyptic mainstream climate change,  which is well covered already.

I've not seen it addressed yet, that's what I'm here for.  I appreciate defending this line of thinking against solid reasoning, but this isn't going to become another forum nerd fight.  This is just a place to put it all down for future reference.

It might be evident in precipitation quantities that exceed the increase expected by mean global temperature.  It might be evident in winds or relative AAM.  I don't even have access to the GSDM as the CPC product was taken down and passwords on GSDMsolutions changed *both* within the past year.

What do I do at this point?

[uniquorn]

Very very heavy rain here last night.

What do I do at this point?

be amazed at the information available at our fingertips

[sark]

There is an ongoing scientific investigation into whether or not the hemispheres can be connected in this way.

For me, it's much more simple than that.

Isaiah 28:20

The bed is too short to stretch out on, the blanket too narrow to wrap around you.

[sark]

In case anyone missed it, there was a GFS run that flat out ran away after hour 240...

it'll be available here for several more days until it cycles out

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019110300&fh=240

As a diagnostic it is a valuable run to look at all the various attributes.  it's one to study.  we're seeing what happens when the polar front is broken completely and tropical air floods in to the Arctic from all sides.  When this happens, the polar cell is completely flung afield.

Subsequent runs have not broke so completely and we're starting to get an inkling of what it will look like.  It's bad.  It adds a 7th month to extreme polar atmospheric height anomalies.  It's a '57 or '59 or '60 on a much warmer Earth.  It's not a runaway in week 3 in the latest runs, but it is bad.

Speaking of:  here's Elwynn Taylor speaking in June of 2018... another who made the mistake of being bullish corn.  Well, ya can't help it

What this man saw back in the 80's is extraordinarily interesting and is observed in a chart, although I think the progression has been interrupted somewhat in our new, modern climatology.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/JFM_season_nao_index.shtml

[sark]

In case anyone missed it.

This got my pulse up.  It was 2 hours before the ECMWF showed a more diffuse setup to the event beginning at hour 240

A lot of forecasters took this run seriously, which surprised me, so what you might have read in the past day about long range weather forecast could have been based on this runaway model.

Ever seen anything like it?

[El Cid]

So the story is that as the globe warms, winds cease/weaken, the polar cell can not be sustained, tropical air pours into the Arctic and this leads to an equable climate.

I have two problems with this:
1) We did not have an equable climate in the past few million years even when we had highert temps than today
2) There is nor real scientific explanation for an equable climate, ie. loss of AAM is not explained, see eg here:

https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/eli/research/equable/hadley.html

"...The main problem is that Farrell does not provide any explanation for why angular momentum sinks would have become stronger during the Cretaceous and the Eocene...This lack of information in the argument makes the theory harder to accept, and until this portion of the argument is explored in greater depth, Farrell's theory cannot be accepted as the correct explanation of equable climates."