June 2019 SIPN report is out:
https://www.arcus.org/sipn/sea-ice-outlook/2019/juneTealight (Nico Sun) has been very busy. Look for "Sun" in the tables and and images in the report.
Extract from his submission on SIE September Monthly Average.Median 4.40
Ranges 3.73-4.88 Standard Deviations
His submission also tells you how he did it and the equations he used.
I wonder what Tealight has come up with so far for the JAXA daily extent minimum (and NSIDC and/or AMSR2 area).
Heuristic EstimatesThe image from the report attached summarises the results by method, one of which is "heuristic" defined by Wikipedia as follows.
A heuristic technique (/hjʊəˈrɪstɪk/; Ancient Greek: εὑρίσκω, "find" or "discover"), often called simply a heuristic, is any approach to problem solving or self-discovery that employs a practical method, not guaranteed to be optimal, perfect, logical, or rational, but instead sufficient for reaching an immediate goal. Where finding an optimal solution is impossible or impractical, heuristic methods can be used to speed up the process of finding a satisfactory solution.
Heuristics can be mental shortcuts that ease the cognitive load of making a decision. Examples that employ heuristics include using a rule of thumb, an educated guess, an intuitive judgment, a guesstimate, profiling, or common sense.
Extract from a heuristic submission. I think the guy who did it is a hero for what he does. All credit to him for chucking in his submission.
"Executive summary" of your Outlook contribution (using 300 words or less) describe how and why your contribution was formulated. To the extent possible, use non-technical language.email rec'd 11:00 pm (AKDT) on12 June: Hi Betsy, Well we just got back from the historic last
C-130H mission from USCG Air Station Kodiak. The long serving Hs are being replaces by the
C-130J model. Our Seasonal Ice Zone Reconnaissance Survey (SIZRS) flight was successful.
We flew up 150°W making oceanographic stations with expendable probes every degree fro 72
to 76 and then flew back at higher altitude doing atmospheric dropsonde drops. Notable ice
observations are that the ice edge has already retreated to 72°N and there was a lot of open water even up to 76°. The snow is already gone.
I usually try to do a little more analysis of trends for the year around the Arctic Ocean and look at the AO, but no time for that; it’s already midnight Pacific Daylight Time. To be any later and still be on the 12th, I’d have to be in Hawaii.
So after exhausting if not exhaustive deliberation with my SIZRS colleges over pizza at the last eatery still open Kodiak, and considering the ice we saw today, my fresh from looking out the window is 3.8 million square km average Sept 2019 ice extent. Method would be politely called heuristic, and as ever the outlook recognizes that this summer's weather trumps everything else and is for the most part unknowable.
Best regards, Jamie
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Marvellous. So from now on, when someone asks me how on earth I come to and/or justify a result or comment my answer will be "using heuristic techniques when examination of the various data sources". Sounds much better than "dunno, sorta guess".
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