Now that everybody and their brother has chimed in with not one of you seeming to have a grasp of what I have suggested, let me fill you in.
HistoryIn August 2015, there was a strong El Nino predicted. It wondered if a strong El Nino might affect the ASI. I did a quick lit survey and found nothing direcly addressing this. Another person posted two papers that were tangential, but not directly related. So, I went to the data in the form of charts I could find online. I did not use any raw data at all, just eyeballed two charts: El Ninos, ASIE 1953 - as close as it got at that time.
I wrote a couple posts about it at RC. That's it. That's the entire extent of the development of this theory.
I used this info to predict a new low ASIE or near new low (2nd or 3rd lowest) ASIE for 2016. All of you who frequent these pages know how hard predicting ASIE is. I predicted the Sept. ASIE minimum for 2016 (2nd lowest) in August 2015. Dumb luck? Maybe, but I don't think so.
The TheoryIt is a theory: Observation, hypothesis, test.
Observation: Science lit says no effect. Charts say there is. 1 to 2 years following an EN, low ASIE's often occur.
Hypothesis: Warmth from the Pacific via air (fast feedback) and ocean waters (slow feedback) can affect ASI by weakening or fully melting sea ice directly and indirectly, within 24 months of the end of an EN (really two summers as the third summer would be outside the window usually.)
Some mechanisms:
* Direct short-term air temps
* Direct longer-term air temps
* Precipitation, pan-Arctic
* Direct effects from hgher and/or warmer river discharge
* Direct longer-term ocean temps via Bering Strait from the Pacific.
* Direct/inderect effects from increased short-lived, local CO2/CH4, both land and sub-sea.
Storms? No idea.
Here is my original "data":
EN ’51 – ’54 = inception of ASI Extent decline.
EN ’57 – ’59 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’65 – ’66 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’68 – ’70 = New Low
EN ’72 – ’73 = possible correlation, some delay
EN ’76 – ’78 = New Low
EN ’79 – ’80 = New Low
EN ’82 – ’83 = New Low
EN ’86 – ’88 = New Low (’89,’90)
EN ’94 – ’95 = New Low
EN ’97 – ’98 = Drop from Previous (?)
EN ’04 – ’05 = Near New Low/New Low
EN ’04 – ’05/’06 – ’07 = New Low
EN ’09 – ’10 = New Low (’10, ’12)
EN ’15 – ’16 = New Low ’16,’17?
Result: 86% correlation of ENs and ASIE lows.
Since that time, I remember two studies concluding there are teleconnections between Pacific air temps and moisture and ASI.
I have attached the original ASIE chart I used.
This is, perhaps a better starting point for these conversations, a bit of a reboot, maybe.
And... well, damn. I go searching for those two papers and find this, from this year:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0363-1By isolating the impact of the individual drivers in an Earth system model, we here demonstrate that internal variability of sea ice is primarily caused directly by atmospheric temperature fluctuations. The other drivers together explain only 25% of sea-ice variability. The dominating impact of atmospheric temperature fluctuations on sea ice is consistent across observations, reanalyses and simulations from global climate models. Such atmospheric temperature fluctuations occur due to variations in moist-static energy transport or local ocean heat release to the atmosphere. The fact that atmospheric temperature fluctuations are the key driver for sea-ice variability limits prospects of interannual predictions of sea ice, and suggests that observed record lows in Arctic sea-ice area are a direct response to an unusually warm atmosphere.
Mic. Dropped.