Does El Niño affect Arctic sea ice?

[Killian]

<snip, Killian is on moderation for the time being; N.>

[binntho]

As to the ethics of publishing private messages: A correspondent cannot unilaterally declare privacy, and I feel free to publish any such messages unless in the unlikely case that I have previously aggreed to keep future correspondence private. Which I won't do, as they tend to be a vector of vitriol, best neutralized by exposing it to sunlight.

[be cause]

All I can say Binntho is thanks for taking the time and effort . I appreciate the outcome .. , b.c.

[Tony Mcleod]

All I can say Binntho is thanks for taking the time and effort.

Hear, hear.

[Killian]

If this model has the accuracy claimed, expect a new low/near new low in the 2020-2022 period.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-predict-el-nino-2020-163608017.html

Per many discussions over the years, and particularly this past summer, I think we can generally agree on a couple/few points:

1. Weather matters.
2. Insolation in June is really important.
3. Export via Fram is THE big driver of losses in-season.
4. Bottom melt is THE big driver over time.
5. Powerful storms, at the right time, matter.
6. Pacific heat and humidity affect ASI.

Debatelable: El Nino matters. But:

EN in 2015-16 = new 2nd low in '16.
EN in 2018 = new 2nd lowest in '19.

I suggest a big EN in 2020 - or any EN in 2020, will have a new 2nd lowest within the two summers. It's pretty simple: You drag a bunch of heat up out of the deep Pacific and unload it on NA/SA, some of it's going to end up in the Arctic.

Of course, we could get '07 and '12 wind patterns before then and get a new 2nd or - unlikely ('12 truly was a massive outlier) - a new low, but I'll put my $$ on the next EN to get us closest or past 2012.

Cheers

[Phil.]

Wayne who sometimes posts here has discussed the effect of El Nino on his blog from time to time.

https://eh2r.blogspot.com/2019/05/clouded-global-heat-transfers-from.html

[Tom_Mazanec]

Early warning: Physicists from Giessen, Potsdam and Tel Aviv forecast "El Niño" for 2020
https://www.pik-potsdam.de/news/press-releases/early-warning-physicists-from-giessen-potsdam-and-tel-aviv-forecast-el-nino-for-2020

"Conventional methods are unable to make a reliable 'El Niño' forecast more than six months in advance. With our method, we have roughly doubled the previous warning time," stresses JLU physicist Armin Bunde, who initiated the development of the algorithm together with his former PhD student Josef Ludescher. Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, Director Emeritus of PIK, explains: "This clever combination of measured data and mathematics gives us unique insights - and we make these available to the people affected.” He points out that, of course, the prediction method does not offer one hundred percent certainty: "The probability of 'El Niño' coming in 2020 is around 80 percent. But that's pretty significant."

Very early warning signal for El Niño in 2020 with a 4 in 5 likelihood
https://arxiv.org/abs/1910.14642

(Submitted on 31 Oct 2019)
The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important driver of climate variability and can trigger extreme weather events and disasters in various parts of the globe. Recently we have developed a network approach, which allows forecasting an El Niño event about 1 year ahead. Here we communicate that since 2012 this network approach, which does not involve any fit parameter, correctly predicted the absence of El Niño events in 2012, 2013 and 2017 as well as the onset of the large El Niño event that started in 2014 and ended in 2016. Our model also correctly forecasted the onset of the last El Niño event in 2018. In September 2019, the model indicated the return of El Niño in 2020 with an 80% probability.

[vox_mundi]

Research Links Sea Ice Retreat With Tropical Phenomena, Including a New Kind of El Nino
https://phys.org/news/2020-01-links-sea-ice-retreat-tropical.html

Two researchers present evidence today in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that the accelerating melt of Arctic sea ice is linked to weather patterns near the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

the researchers said there is strong evidence that the ice melt sets a chain of events in motion that sends cold air equatorward in the upper atmosphere. The two used computer analysis of historical data to identify which atmospheric phenomena also change as Arctic ice diminishes, as it has steadily since 1999. Among the variables that seemed to move in lockstep with ice melt were intensifying trade winds at the equator in the Central Pacific Ocean. The study marks the first time that researchers have looked at both world regions together in this context.

... Though many researchers had thought that air originating in the Arctic couldn't make it to the equator, Kennel and Yulaeva said their work suggests it does.

One consequence is that the nature of El Niño storms changes. Classical El Niños feature build-ups of warm water at the eastern end of the Pacific Ocean off South America. Kennel and Yulaeva's analyses indicate that El Niños starting in the Central Pacific Ocean are the ones that respond to the arrival of Arctic air near the equator. Kennel suggested that since so much of California's rain comes from atmospheric river storms that develop in the Central Pacific, the Arctic-Tropics connection merits further study.

Open Access: Charles F. Kennel et al. Influence of Arctic sea-ice variability on Pacific trade winds, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020).

[Killian]

Well, this is exciting! It's not every day I get a significant climate mechanism hypothesis confirmed!

And very bad news.

Copied from my (pending) post at RealClimate:

El Nino/Arctic Sea Ice Extent lows correlation mechanism confirmed by Scripps scientists!

You may recall this post from 2015 https://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2015/08/unforced-variations-aug-2015/comment-page-5/#comment-635199
and other discussions since. Simply, I predicted ocean and air energy from EN’s must impact the ASI, primarily the ocean heat content, as the primary flow of ocean currents in the Arctic Ocean is Pacific --> Atlantic.

The link above has the data on ENs and ASIE lows. I found no LN correlation.

The article states

“Heat bomb” describes the pockets of warm water from the Pacific Ocean that are speeding up the melting of sea ice. When the warm, salty and dense Pacific Ocean water enters the area through the Bering Strait, it settles deep beneath the frozen surface.

The mixing of the different waters generates phytoplankton growth and creates a “heat bomb” melting the ice above. The exact mechanism causing the ice to melt so rapidly had previously been unknown.

These pockets of warm water can last for months and even years causing a circular current called “eddies” or “heat bombs” as they mix and interact with the surrounding water.

https://www.cbs8.com/article/tech/science/scripps-institution-of-oceanography-heat-bombs-destroying-arctic-ice/509-fcee1005-ba14-412c-a7e7-f1dd302ac34b

While this does not confirm the specific EN/ASIE correlation, I am confident that will come.