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What do you think will happen?

It will be lost to the ocean during this summer.
It will get stuck in the shallow water and stays grounded for at least until winter 20/21.

Author Topic: Where is D-28 headed?  (Read 5230 times)

blumenkraft

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Where is D-28 headed?
« on: October 08, 2019, 09:07:07 PM »
Attached a GIF showing monthly increments from April and a bathymetry map.

« Last Edit: January 07, 2020, 10:54:38 AM by Neven »

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #1 on: October 10, 2019, 08:35:09 PM »
This is a GIF showing the first 17 days of D-26s travel.

Sentinel-3 SLSTR, click to play.

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #2 on: October 17, 2019, 05:09:39 PM »
For now, it bumped into the landfast ice there.

I find that movement a little weird, given it's obviously not going with the wind direction.

Also weird, it seems the landfast ice is cracking before the iceberg hits. Coincidence?

Thoughts?

be cause

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #3 on: October 17, 2019, 05:55:31 PM »
any chance it's bigger looking underwater ? The invisible meeting subsurface may have been even more dramatic .. .
 It looks like it got free . got stuck , pivoted as it was being blown out of the way , broke free and crashed .. not the most dignified record of a journey that may already be over . b.c.
2007 + 5 = 2012 + 4 = 2016 + 3 = 2019 + 2 = 2021 
 (phew)

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #4 on: October 17, 2019, 06:20:13 PM »
any chance it's bigger looking underwater ?

My first thought too. But then there is warm water from below thinning that thing for a long time and one might think it's thinning on the edges most, no?

Quote
not the most dignified record of a journey that may already be over . b.c.

LOL, how would you move if you were 35km long without legs, eh?? ;)

mitch

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #5 on: October 17, 2019, 08:20:23 PM »
An iceberg as big as D-26 will stick down 300 m or more into the sea.  Currents at that depth are not necessarily going where the wind is blowing.  As for thinning, the temperature at 300 m is most likely warmer than the surface water, so most melting will occur from the bottom. However, being a tabular berg, it will just sink lower--the freeboard will remain about 10% of the total thickness.

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2019, 08:53:47 AM »
Mitch, the 300m figure is an estimation, right? Or is there a paper you can point to?

As for movement, we rotated clockwise and moved north. But only a little.

baking

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2019, 04:00:16 PM »
Mitch, the 300m figure is an estimation, right? Or is there a paper you can point to?

I took at as "300 meters is a reasonable low end for recently calved tabular icebergs" and not something specific to D-26.  It would depend on the shelf it broke off from.

One point of information is that underwater peaks at 300 meters in depth (near calving fronts) tend to have icebergs grounded on them.  Deeper peaks can have icebergs grounded on them, but usually the bigger ones.  Of course that doesn't tell us about the icebergs that didn't get grounded.
« Last Edit: October 20, 2019, 04:15:59 PM by baking »

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2019, 07:01:56 PM »
I was asking about the 300m because this piece of ice is floating on the water for a long time now. The grounding line is at least 100 km behind this iceberg. I don't know how exactly this translates into years but it's a lot of summers that could thin it out for sure. And i don't know how thick it is when it passes the grounding line.


mitch

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2019, 07:15:54 PM »
Baking,
You are right, 300 m is a guess not a measurement. I was trying to find a temperature profile nearby, but was not able to in any reasonable time. You are right that bottom topography is also an issue with the bigger bergs. 

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #10 on: October 23, 2019, 09:16:37 PM »
The last two days, straight north!

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #11 on: October 27, 2019, 09:53:53 AM »
Update

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #12 on: November 17, 2019, 08:03:56 AM »
Big oopsie.

This iceberg is called D-28, not D-26.

And also, it's stuck.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #13 on: November 17, 2019, 09:12:08 PM »
B_,
If you edit the first post's title, I think that new posts in this thread will have that title.  (Note that one can change the title for a single post within a thread, as I did here.)  If it is frozen, you can ask Neven to edit it for you.
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

PragmaticAntithesis

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #14 on: November 18, 2019, 08:56:05 PM »
Big oopsie.

This iceberg is called D-28, not D-26.

And also, it's stuck.

Happens to the best of us!
A single seed in the right place can sprout an entire forest.

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #15 on: November 18, 2019, 09:05:30 PM »
Thanks for saying that, PragmaticAntithesis. :)

Stephan

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Re: Where is D-26 headed?
« Reply #16 on: January 05, 2020, 10:35:38 PM »
Nov 19 to Jan 04: A progress in N direction of about 18 km. Its western edge still is very close to that persistent sea ice field which probably marks shallow waters.
It still has to move another 30 km to reach really open waters.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

Neven

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #17 on: January 07, 2020, 11:18:25 AM »
Adjusted thread title.
Il faut comparer, comparer, comparer, et cultiver notre jardin

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #18 on: January 07, 2020, 04:51:01 PM »
Thanks a lot, Neven! :D

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #19 on: January 20, 2020, 04:55:38 PM »
Update!

We are slowly moving north.

14 frames, 10-day increments (roughly)

Click to play

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #20 on: January 20, 2020, 05:02:48 PM »
Note that smaller marked iceberg.

This one got caught in the shallow waters days before D-28 calved off. Now it's pushed away by D-28.

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #21 on: January 20, 2020, 05:15:50 PM »
And here a zoom out with bathymetry map (NASA Blue Marple).

FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #22 on: January 21, 2020, 01:43:42 AM »
I expect D28 to do "Cart-wheels" in the coastal current as it travels westwards round Antarctica to the Weddell Sea (just like B15AA - which is now drifting north into its sunset in the South Atlantic).

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #23 on: January 21, 2020, 10:06:02 AM »
How did you vote, Fred?

FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #24 on: January 22, 2020, 10:23:27 PM »
I have now voted that it will get stuck because I do not believe it will escape north yet.
I forecast it will travel west (anti-clockwise) round the coast towards the Weddell Sea over a number of years, getting frozen in during the winters.

For comparison, B15AA has spent 20 years getting from the Ross Sea to the South Atlantic, where it will soon melt away. (I did find B15AA on (Ant)arctic.io on 2016-08-13, @ long. 37.11554, lat. -68.27076, which is closer to the Weddell Sea than D28. On the image for 2019-01-19 it appears at long.-40.16057, lat.-64.97348 approx., having traveled west over the north of the Weddell gyre!) It has taken yet another year to sail free northwards.

I wait to be proved wrong!

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #25 on: January 23, 2020, 07:52:01 AM »
Yes, we all do, Fred. :)

FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #26 on: January 24, 2020, 12:03:34 PM »
In the last 5 days D28 has just started to rotate anticlockwise as it edges northwards - and the leading edge of the 'berg is also approaching the end of the fast-ice blocking its movement westwards.
The cracks in the eastern side of the ice-shelf that spawned D28 grow each year but are now growing much clearer and a little closer to the front. Are we going to get the next big iceberg soon?

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #27 on: February 09, 2020, 12:55:22 PM »
Update!

FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #28 on: February 09, 2020, 06:27:57 PM »
Bit off-topic: Much less pooled water higher up the ice-shelf in this catchment area this year - the lowest big pool in particular is missing!

Stephan

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #29 on: February 09, 2020, 06:31:01 PM »
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #30 on: February 09, 2020, 07:02:47 PM »

grixm

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #31 on: February 18, 2020, 08:31:15 AM »
It is speeding up. It has moved around 20km north in the last four days. Click to play.

FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #32 on: February 18, 2020, 12:31:58 PM »
   .   .   & westwards too, round that blocking fast-ice. Question is - does it continue to travel/spin westwards (most likely?) or keep heading north away from the continent?

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #33 on: February 18, 2020, 12:38:55 PM »
Apparently both directions are possible from here.


Stephan

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #34 on: February 22, 2020, 08:35:01 PM »
   .   .   & westwards too, round that blocking fast-ice. Question is - does it continue to travel/spin westwards (most likely?) or keep heading north away from the continent?
As far as I can see through the clouds it has moved northward (from Feb 18 to Feb 22 around 7 km).
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #35 on: February 22, 2020, 09:03:30 PM »

But the icebergs that traveled north and melted were east of the location of D28.
Smaller ice "mush" is now flowing west from south of D28, north of the fast ice that was blocking the big iceberg earlier.
Still voting that D28 will follow a coastal current westward when it gets into sufficiently deep (more northern) water.

Stephan

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #36 on: February 22, 2020, 09:14:05 PM »
The westward flow of the "mush" is obvious. But the big iceberg doesn't seem to have the tendency to follow it. I think we should wait for a clearer day to be certain which way it chooses.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #37 on: February 22, 2020, 09:24:00 PM »
Yesterday has a radar pic. I overlayed it with (NASA Blue Marple layer) bathymetry map.

If it goes north, there are still 50/60km to go to have it in deeper waters.

Stephan

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #38 on: February 25, 2020, 11:01:11 PM »
   .   .   & westwards too, round that blocking fast-ice. Question is - does it continue to travel/spin westwards (most likely?) or keep heading north away from the continent?
As far as I can see through the clouds it has moved northward (from Feb 18 to Feb 22 around 7 km).
Still very cloudy - my best guess it that is has travelled around 14 km northward between Feb 18 to Feb 25.
It is too late just to be concerned about Climate Change

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #39 on: February 27, 2020, 07:50:41 AM »
Nice cloud-free Sentinel 3 picture from yesterday.

blumenkraft

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #40 on: March 02, 2020, 10:26:16 AM »
It went a little bit eastwards recently.


FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #42 on: April 05, 2020, 02:49:19 PM »
Recent Positions for D28:-

Location  @ 02/28/2020:-        ->        @04/03/2020(April)
D28          67°18'S    72°12'E.   ->        67°01'S    74°04'E. (This is marked as grounded!)

Tiny bit of northwards movement but none of my forecast westwards!

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/icebergs/Iceberg_Tabular.pdf
« Last Edit: April 06, 2020, 01:37:08 AM by FredBear »

FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #43 on: April 30, 2020, 05:28:10 PM »
D28 has taken 7 months to do 1 anticlockwise revolution, it is now spinning faster, moving westwards (but has stopped moving north?).
I plan to update the location at the end of next week (5 week gap) to create some sort of record.

FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #44 on: May 09, 2020, 03:15:05 AM »
Recent Positions for D28 (This is marked as grounded!)(5 week intervals):-

Location  @ 02/28/2020(Feb)       ->        @04/03/2020(April)     -> @ 05/08/2020(May)
D28          67°18'S    72°12'E.   ->        67°01'S    74°04'E.     ->  66°22'S    71°12'E.

April - tiny bit of northwards movement but none of my forecast westwards!
May - bit more north (but wobbling lately) and a more definite westwards movement, with increased anti-clockwise rotation recently.

https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/icebergs/Iceberg_Tabular.pdf

FredBear

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Re: Where is D-28 headed?
« Reply #45 on: September 13, 2020, 01:48:24 PM »
D28 has been listening to my forecast (reply 24) since May, eventually traveling westward and rotating anti-clockwise. Recent movement has been slow, probably because of the large amounts of sea ice surrounding it. During winter the visible-light pictures disappear     .     .     .

Location @ 02/28/2020(Feb) ->@04/03/2020(April) -> @ 05/08/2020(May) ->@ 09/11/2020(Sept)
D28         67°18'S    72°12'E -> 67°01'S    74°04'E. ->  66°22'S    71°12'E   ->66°16'S    58°52'E