I looked at the data and my tables, somewhat stunned. A minimum of 3.5 million km2 with average remaining melt?
JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT: 6,965,917 KM2 as at 15-Jul-2020
- Extent loss on this day 151k, 76 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 75k,
- Extent loss from maximum on this date is 7,482 k, 993 k, 15.3% more than the 10 year average of 6,488 k.
- Extent is at position #1 in the satellite record
- Extent is 531 k LESS than 2019,
- Extent is 548 k LESS than 2016,
- Extent is 629 k LESS than 2012
- Extent is 728 k LESS than 2007
_____________________________________________
On average 65.2% of melting from maximum to minimum done, and 61 days to minimum
Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)
Average remaining melt (of the last 10 years) would produce a minimum in Sept 2020 of 3.50 million km2, 0.33 million km2 above the 2012 minimum of 3.18 million km2.
For a new record low minimum extent, remaining melt needs to be 9.5% above the average.
______________________________
N.B. Click once for full-size images