COVID-19

[nanning]

From the Guardian:
"Aerial footage shows huge queues for masks in South Korea amid coronavirus panic – video"
(51s)

[Richard Rathbone]

less than 10k.

Its under control in China, maybe 5k total there. It will be more easily controlled elsewhere, maybe 2k total there. Summer is coming.

[blumenkraft]

Link >> https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-in-us.html

* This table represents cases detected and tested in the United States through U.S. public health surveillance systems since January 21, 2020. It does not include people who returned to the U.S. via State Department-chartered flights.

Total tested:   426

Well, if you don't test people, you'll not find new cases. Brilliant strategy in Trump country ...

[Neven]

less than 10k.

Its under control in China, maybe 5k total there. It will be more easily controlled elsewhere, maybe 2k total there. Summer is coming.

I voted the same. I'm more worried about the panic than the disease itself. Once people realise this isn't a Hollywood blockbuster and boredom sets in again, we'll have another flu variant at the most. Probably a good time to invest in the pharmaceutical industry.

[Alexander555]

less than 10k.

Its under control in China, maybe 5k total there. It will be more easily controlled elsewhere, maybe 2k total there. Summer is coming.

How do you know everything is under control in China ? Everything that comes out of China comes from the Herr Goebbels. And the restaurants in Beijing are still as empty as 5 weeks ago. That sounds like it's not under control at all. And they just placed a hotel in lockdown in Spain ( tenerife) with 1000 people in it.

[vox_mundi]

The health secretary, Matt Hancock, has said the official advice around coronavirus is being updated so that people returning to the UK from any areas quarantined by the Italian government should self-isolate whether they show symptoms or not.

----------------------------

Kuwait reports three new cases of coronavirus, raising total to eight.

----------------------------

Four new cases of coronavirus have been detected in Iraq in Kirkuk province, the health ministry said. This means there are now five cases in the country, and marking the first instance of Iraq patients.

The patients are an Iraqi family who had been on a trip to Iran, the ministry said in a statement. They have been placed in quarantine. Iraq reported its first case of the virus on Monday, an Iranian theology student in the holy Shi’ite city of Najaf.

------------------------------

Canary Islands: Hundreds of Tourists Tested After Case In Hotel
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls

A Tenerife hotel withs 1,000 guests is reportedly in lockdown after an Italian tourist tested positive to contracting the new coronavirus.

Spanish health authorities are carrying out tests on hundreds of tourists in a Canary Islands hotel after a coronavirus case has been identified.

Holidaymakers have reportedly been quarantined inside a complex in Tenerife, and local reports have named the hotel as the H10 Costa Adeje Palace in Adeje, south of the island. It’s a region that is extremely popular with British tourists at this time of the year.

Police are said to be surrounding the hotel to make sure no one enters or leaves to control the virus’ spread.

--------------------------------

Number of infections in South Korea approaching 980
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls

South Korea reports 84 more cases of new virus, bringing total number of infections to 977.

--------------------------------

The outbreak of new coronavirus has killed 15 in Islamic Republic amid 95 confirmed cases.

The novel coronavirus has claimed three more lives in Iran, state media reported, taking the country’s overall death toll to 15.

Iran has yet to say how many people it has quarantined but the semi-official Mehr news agency said 320 people had been hospitalised in the Shi’ite holy city of Qom, where Tehran confirmed its first two deaths last week.

--------------------------------

First Infection Confirmed in South of Italy

A woman from Bergamo, who was on holiday with her friends in Sicily, has tested positive for Convid-19. The patient, who is not in serious conditions, has been transferred to the Hospital Cervello in Palermo.

She had been on holiday in Palermo since before the outbreak of the virus in the country.

In the meantime, a 60-year old Italian entrepreneur from Florence, who came back from Singapore, has also tested positive for Convid-19, as the number of confirmed cases in the country rises to over 220, with seven deaths.

... Meanwhile, Maltese chandlers and port workers in Paola and Valletta, in Malta, have stopped their operations over coronavirus fears, refusing to board vessels coming from Italy to unload cargo, Malta Today has reported.

According to MaltaToday, “port workers are complaining of a lack of medical staff in the area as they handle cargo that has arrived from Italian ports.’’

--------------------------------

Fourth Diamond Princess passenger dies as Japan closes some schools
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls

A passenger from the Diamond Princess in their 80s has died, the Japanese broadcaster NHK has reported.

The country’s education minister has also asked asked education boards with reported coronavirus cases to temporarily close schools.

He also said some schools without confirmed infections should also consider closing.

---------------------------

Korean Air Cabin Crew Member Tests Positive
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-asia-markets.html

A cabin crew member of Korean Air has tested positive for the coronavirus, the South Korean airline said on Tuesday, according to Reuters. That has caused the airline to shut its office near the Incheon International Airport at the city’s capital Seoul.

Details of the routes and flights where the crew member were on were not immediately available, the report said.

---------------------

South Korea to Test All 200,000 Members of Church at Center of Virus Outbreak
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/coronavirus-latest-updates-china-asia-markets.html

The South Korean government says it plans to test potentially more than 200,000 members of a church at the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, according to Reuters, citing the prime minister’s office.

The leader of the Shincheonji Church of Jesus agreed to provide authorities with the names of all its members in South Korea, which has been estimated to be around 215,000 people, according to the report. More than half of Covid-19 cases in the country have been traced back to the church.

------------------------

[BeeKnees]

As the poll is for a whole decade and most think this will become a new form of Flu  then the death toll over that period would be expected to be much higher than 10k I would imagine, even without being some mad civilisation ending virus.

Something that's bothering me is the number that are seriously effected and require ventilators to survive is very high.  Conversely it also means that this could be more serious than say Spanish flu but modern technology means it's less deadly. 

[Tom_Mazanec]

As the poll is for a whole decade and most think this will become a new form of Flu  then the death toll over that period would be expected to be much higher than 10k I would imagine, even without being some mad civilisation ending virus.

Something that's bothering me is the number that are seriously effected and require ventilators to survive is very high.  Conversely it also means that this could be more serious than say Spanish flu but modern technology means it's less deadly.

If this becomes widespread do we have enough ventilators for those serious cases?

[Gray-Wolf]

less than 10k.

Its under control in China, maybe 5k total there. It will be more easily controlled elsewhere, maybe 2k total there. Summer is coming.

I voted the same. I'm more worried about the panic than the disease itself. Once people realise this isn't a Hollywood blockbuster and boredom sets in again, we'll have another flu variant at the most. Probably a good time to invest in the pharmaceutical industry.

I wish I could muster the same level of 'Hope' as your good self Neven?

The virus is 'out and running Free' with us always up to 2 weeks behind the game so far as 'Cases' and 'Spread' are concerned?

If we could rely on the numbers coming out of China we'd be better able to understand both the 'R0' and the 'CFR' ...... as it is the + or - error bars are so wide when the potential numbers are so large?

Fully agree on the civil unrest aspects of the virus esp. over 'peak infection'?

When the masses grasp that their health Service is failing and absenteeism is impacting all aspects of the supply/demand networks the gods alone know what will pan out..... I'm glad I'm not in a nation where every Tom,Dick and Harry are 'open carrying' is all I'll say!!!!

[Neven]

As the poll is for a whole decade

Right, I thought it was for 2020 only, so my vote is too low. How many people die from influenza every year, ie how many will die during the 2020s? I'd say double that for COVID-19.

[blumenkraft]

We might see a vaccine in a year or two.

That's a lot of time for the virus to do harm.

[Tom_Mazanec]

As the poll is for a whole decade

Right, I thought it was for 2020 only, so my vote is too low. How many people die from influenza every year, ie how many will die during the 2020s? I'd say double that for COVID-19.

More than a decade means you might have to take into account developments like nanomedicine. Also, it includes indirect deaths. I changed the question to include that (that might have been where I messed up the "change your vote" ability?).

[pileus]

Great study but I think the 2,3% number is way too high. Reason: It is obvious from the numbers themselves (extreme disparity between Hubei mortality and everywhere else) and local reports that huge numbers of mild cases in Hubei are not counted and told to go home and self-quarantine, so only the more serious cases are counted in the study. Also, the sample is said to be closed on Feb 11, so the CFR should be close to final. So it is 2,3% on a biased sample that likely does not include mild cases. I still stick to around cca 1% mortality based on everything I know. And let's not forget that not everyone will catch COVID, as just like cca 25% caught the Spanish flu.

On another note (see above): Iran really is a major concern. Lax regulations, authorities are not ready at all, porous borders, surrounding countires with poor healthcare = perfect breeding ground and likely much higher mortality than eg China. I don't see how they can stop it in Iraq/Iran/Syria/Lebanon and the like

Agree, the overall fatality rate if all infections are included (which is practically and virtually impossible) is most likely well under 1%.

I found the demographic splits and severity arc outcomes to be more instructive and useful in the summary of the study.

[Tom_Mazanec]

COVID-19 (Coronavirus) Economic Impact Sweeps Down on Global Economy Like a Fat Black Swan
http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/economic-impact-of-coronavirus-covid-19/

The economic impact of this little virus is already pandemic. While it is fear more than actual health problems that has apparently kicked the entire world in the butt right now, the lack of medical reality big enough to merit the fear does not in any way diminish the reality of fear’s economic impact.

[Archimid]

So be it. I picked less than 10,000. I hope this thing can be slowdown until effective treatments are developed. A look at the tables this morning makes me a bit less confident about my pick,  seeing the US approach to this disease even more so.

[vox_mundi]

Croatia Latest European Country to Confirm Coronavirus Case
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls

Croatia’s prime minister Andrej Plenkovic has confirmed its first case of coronavirus infection, in a patient who is hospitalised in the capital.

“The patient is in the Zagreb clinic for infectious diseases. It is a younger person and he has milder symptoms. He is in isolation and his condition is good at the moment,” Plenkovic told a news conference.

Health minister Vili Beros said that the patient had stayed in Milan from 19 February to 21 February.

------------------------

Austria reports first two cases of coronavirus

It appears that Austria has its first two cases of coronavirus, in the province of Tyrol. There’s no indication yet of the source of the outbreak, but Tyrol borders northern Italy where officials are struggling to contain a growing number of cases.

-----------------------------

Iran's Deputy Health Minister Tests Positive for Coronavirus - Reports

In Iran it is being reported that the deputy health minister has tested positive for coronavirus. According to the semi-official news agency ILNA, the spokesman for Iran’s health ministry confirmed in an interview with state television that Deputy Minister Iraj Harirchi has been infected and is now under quarantine.

Iraj Harirchi had been working as normal on Monday, and gave a news conference with journalists in Tehran about the virus during which he reportedly had been sweating and looking uncomfortable.

[be cause]

indirect deaths too ? ..  over 10 years ?  .. then 1 billion + .. just b.c.

[bluice]

How should we count deaths over a decade? Millions of sick elderly people die to pneumonia every year. If Covid isn't the cause of death, then some other virus/bacteria will be. People won't live forever whether Covid or not.

[kassy]

This sort of shit will really help...where was the USA on that preparedness ranking?

Traveler Returning From Coronavirus-Hit China May Have to Pay Thousands for Flu Test

A Miami man who felt ill after returning from a business trip to China in January was slapped with a $3,270 bill after seeking a test to determine if he was infected with the Wuhan coronavirus, the Miami Herald reported on Monday.

....

Hospital personnel told Azcue a coronavirus diagnosis would require a CT scan, so he instead opted for a simple flu test. That fortunately confirmed that Azcue had nothing worse than the common flu, but according to the Herald, his insurance provider, National General Insurance, sent him a bill for $3,270. Hospital staff said it could possibly be reduced to $1,400, but only if Azcue was able to provide three years of documentation showing he did not catch the flu as a result of a pre-existing condition. They also said that more bills would be on the way, according to the Herald.

https://gizmodo.com/traveler-returning-from-coronavirus-hit-china-may-have-1841900021

No idea which pre-existing condition would make you catch flu.
Lets say you are immunocompromised that still just means you will have a harder time fighting the virus but actually getting it is dependent on contacts not pre-existing conditions....

[kassy]

A poll for just next year might be more useful than extrapolating all kinds unknown stuff for a decade. Remember GIGO but YMMV.

[Archimid]

A very interesting narration of the cases. This is not the flu, this is much worse in both infectiveness and severity.  This can not be let out in the wild.

3 COVID-19 Cases As Described By Doctors In China

[Tom_Mazanec]

Maybe we will exterminate it like we did SARS?
By indirect I was thinking social collapse.
If you die of Covid19 at 88 whereas otherwise you would have died of the flu at 89 than you are counted.
Maybe I made the timeline too long, but I wanted to factor in this becoming an endemic disease like the flu.

[kassy]

I was wondering too. I read some articles which indicate that the 'Antibody-Dependent Enhancement' ADE might also be a factor for the COVID-19. Could it be that it's the same mechanism as suspected for the Dengue fever?
What I understand of this mechanism is, that an infection with one strain of the virus is quite harmless, but that a following infection with another strain of the virus is far more severe because the immune system is reacting in a wrong way to the second strain of the virus causing a significant higher death rate for the second infection.
If this would be the case, we could have a 'common cold' like reaction for the first strain and the Corvid reaction to the second infection. In this case the first round of infections would have gone unnoticed.
If the tests could not detect that there are two stains, a lot of people, which 'just' had the first infection some time ago would test positive.
Does this make sense?

Dengue has 4 known subtypes. The sequences of the COVID virus so far are rather similar.

If there were actually 2 co-circulating types that would be shared since that would be very relevant information.

[Shared Humanity]

Great study but I think the 2,3% number is way too high. Reason: It is obvious from the numbers themselves (extreme disparity between Hubei mortality and everywhere else) and local reports that huge numbers of mild cases in Hubei are not counted and told to go home and self-quarantine, so only the more serious cases are counted in the study. Also, the sample is said to be closed on Feb 11, so the CFR should be close to final. So it is 2,3% on a biased sample that likely does not include mild cases. I still stick to around cca 1% mortality based on everything I know. And let's not forget that not everyone will catch COVID, as just like cca 25% caught the Spanish flu.

On another note (see above): Iran really is a major concern. Lax regulations, authorities are not ready at all, porous borders, surrounding countires with poor healthcare = perfect breeding ground and likely much higher mortality than eg China. I don't see how they can stop it in Iraq/Iran/Syria/Lebanon and the like

I agree. I wish everyone would stay focused on the large lab experiment that is being conducted called Diamond Princess. This is the perfect way to understand community transmission and mortality rates.

Latest numbers for Diamond Princess: (17 hours old)

3700 passengers
691 cases
3 dead

What do we know about Diamond Princess that we do not know about the cases in China?

1. Every single passenger has been tested, if not on the ship then when they were evacuated by countries bringing citizens home.
2. All deaths are being recorded.

The experiment is not yet completed. The 1st 10 passengers who were identified as infected occurred on Feb. 4. There are a number of serious cases still in Japan hospitals as they were not flown home. These are the patients we need to follow closely.

[vox_mundi]

In my age group, if I test positive, what's my chances?

- a coin toss if it will be severe (~40%)

- a roll of a single die if it will be critical (~15%)

- a roll of the dice if it will be terminal (~8%)

Statistics in the 'Game of Life'

-----------------------

... This will not be over quickly. You will not enjoy this. ...

300 - (2006)

[kassy]

One thing that has me wondering is the re-infections.

Are these cases actually re-infections or is it the disease flaring up again?

We know that some have the disease for over a week without showing any symptoms. We know that people repeatedly tested negative and then were found positive on a third test (possibly by different method).

So were the recovered cases really clear of the disease?

The movie in #1370 at 2m55 talks about ACE-2 receptors.

We have them in the lower lungs but also the stomach and intestines and ´specific parts of the male anatomy´ have them too. It´s also on the kidneys and the heart.

So possibly the virus has been cleared from the lungs with the patient recovering a bit and then being listed as recovered but possibly the virus is still present on the kidneys for example and spreading from there after an interval.

Remember we are now treating symptoms and not using a dedicated anti-viral.

[oren]

Latest numbers for Diamond Princess: (17 hours old)

3700 passengers
691 cases
3 dead

4 dead now.

[vox_mundi]

^

... One thing that has me wondering is the re-infections.

Are these cases actually re-infections or is it the disease flaring up again?

It's more likely a reflection of the sensitivity of the test vs reinfection.

We've done similar tests in our laboratory and viral load levels can vary 10-20% from day-to-day during the convalescent phase of viral infection. This is with a FDA validated test which is not the case right now.

The test, itself, may have a run-to-run variance of 10-20% or more.

Combining these and other variables, like drug suppression of circulating virus, can give you a curve that's a lot bumper than you would ordinarily imagine.

We'll know better in a month or two.

[silkman]

The Guardian:

"Meanwhile Brine Leas Academy in Nantwich said it was temporarily closing its sixth form after teachers and students also returned from a half-term trip to Italy. Cransley School, an independent school also in Cheshire, announced it would close for a week after some pupils reported feeling ill after a skiing trip to Bormio in Lombardy."

Half term in UK schools is over and parties are returning from skiing trips to the Dolomites.

This is in my neck of the woods - for Milan read Manchester and Liverpool in a day or two? I sincerely hope not.

[crandles]

The Guardian:

"Meanwhile Brine Leas Academy in Nantwich said it was temporarily closing its sixth form after teachers and students also returned from a half-term trip to Italy. Cransley School, an independent school also in Cheshire, announced it would close for a week after some pupils reported feeling ill after a skiing trip to Bormio in Lombardy."

Half term in UK schools is over and parties are returning from skiing trips to the Dolomites.

This is in my neck of the woods - for Milan read Manchester and Liverpool in a day or two? I sincerely hope not.

Played bridge in Chester last night, sounds uncomfortably close to me too.

[vox_mundi]

Coronavirus (COVID-19): Latest Information and Advice
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-information-for-the-public

The UK government has updated the advice it is giving to people who have recently been travelling.

The full advice is now as follows:

Based on the scientific advice of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) the UK chief medical officers are advising anyone who has travelled to the UK from mainland China, Thailand, Japan, Republic of Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia or Macau in the last 14 days and is experiencing coughing or fever or shortness of breath, to stay indoors and call NHS 111, even if their symptoms are mild.

If you have returned from these specific areas since 19 February, you should call NHS111 and stay indoors and avoid contact with other people even if you do not have symptoms:

- Iran.
- Specific lockdown areas in northern Italy as designated by the government of Italy.
- Special care zones in South Korea as designated by the government of the - Republic of South Korea.
- Hubei province (returned in the past 14 days).

...

- Northern Italy (defined by a line above, and not including, Pisa, Florence and Rimini).
- Vietnam.
- Cambodia.
- Laos.
- Myanmar.

-------------------------

Schools across the UK are sending pupils home as they struggle to comply with the latest official advice on Covid-19 for students and staff who spent last week’s half-term holiday in northern Italy.

[wili]

Over ten years, nearly everyone in the world will likely get it. This isn't the 'Spanish flu.'

Epidemiologists say that it will most likely become endemic, perhaps seasonal, like the regular flu, but much deadlier. So if it's a 1% death rate, it would be 77 million direct deaths. But it's probably higher than that, and it will definitely be higher than that in many parts of the world, and as health care systems get overwhelmed. So I would say definitely above 100 million direct deaths over 10 years.

Reported cases outside China are still rising rapidly, now at 370 some new cases a day. And of course it is clear that in Iran, Italy, Indonesia and probably many other places there are clearly many, many cases that have not been detected or have been misdiagnosed or just lied about/hidden.

I have no idea how to figure out indirect deaths, but there will be many. Have they been calculated for earlier large-scale epidemics?

We should all expect that cases are going to be reported in our immediate vicinity within the coming weeks...months at latest...and plan accordingly...

(And remember that you can get it multiple times...)

[greylib]

I wish everyone would stay focused on the large lab experiment that is being conducted called Diamond Princess. This is the perfect way to understand community transmission and mortality rates.

The death rate for the Diamond Princess passengers seems very low, considering the age of most of them. I'm wondering whether clean air on the ship vs polluted air in Wuhan might have made a difference, since the main cause of death is lung infections.

By Chinese urban standards, Wuhan isn't that polluted - but I notice that they did have some major anti-pollution protests there last year.

[vox_mundi]

^ Probably being hospitalized on Day 1 with intensive care available 24/7 helped vs waiting till your on deaths door before you get a hospital bed.

[greylib]

That as well. So not a very representative lab experiment, then.

[Archimid]

It's a great lower bound with Wuhan providing the higher bounds.

[SteveMDFP]

Remember we are now treating symptoms and not using a dedicated anti-viral.

Not in China.  China announced 3 specific, effective anti-viral agents, approved for marketing there.
Two are investigational drugs, not generally available outside China, except in clinical trials.
The third is chloroquine, with extremely limited supplies outside China.

I can't confirm China is actually using these routinely in suspected/confirmed cases, but I'd be shocked if they weren't.  Such use might explain some of the dramatic fall in new cases and deaths there.

[wili]

Isn't it a bit early to determine a death rate for the Diamond Princess passengers? Have they all fully recovered yet? (sorry, I haven't been following this story as closely as I should have)

[Archimid]

We have a simple instantaneous death rate from different samples. It is not the same as the final number but it conveys meaningful information.

[Richard Rathbone]

As the poll is for a whole decade

Right, I thought it was for 2020 only, so my vote is too low. How many people die from influenza every year, ie how many will die during the 2020s? I'd say double that for COVID-19.

That would make it 10M rather than 10k, which is why a bit of panic now that slows it enough that it fails to maintain a chain of hosts through the NH summer is important.

[KiwiGriff]

We have a global pandemic of a virus that causes death in 1.5 to 5% pf cases
If you think the rest of the world will lock down major city's like china has I have some news for you. Governments are reacting weeks late to close contact with centers of infection . We can not halt the spread it is already to late.
What many are failing to comprehend  is what is missing from this list .
77,660 Mainland China
977 South Korea
691 Others
283 Italy
170 Japan
95 Iran
90 Singapore
84 Hong Kong
53 US
37 Thailand
31 Taiwan
22 Australia
22 Malaysia
16 Germany
16 Vietnam
13 United Arab Emirates
13 UK
12 France
11 Canada
10 Macau
8 Bahrain
8 Kuwait
3 Spain
3 Philippines
3 India
2 Russia
2 Oman
1 Afghanistan
1 Lebanon
1 Nepal
1 Cambodia
1 Israel
1 Belgium
1 Finland
1 Sweden
1 Croatia
1 Iraq
1 Egypt
1 Sri Lanka

Last Updated at (M/D/YYYY)
2/26/

No cases in South America, Indonesia  few in Africa, India and Philippians.
This can not be correct with what we know of infection rates and cross border travel.

 Most of us have had flu most of us will get this. In the less developed world they do not have the health facility's to treat the worse cases . In our world medical infrastructure is already frequently stressed by regular flu.

Ten to hundred million

If your granny dies a few years early at 80 it is still going to be  a death to you 
   

[vox_mundi]

Coronavirus Spreads to Switzerland
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls

Switzerland has confirmed its first case of coronavirus, the Federal Office of Public Health has announced.

Further details will be provided at 5pm CET, the health department said, declining to say where the first case had been detected.

Swiss television RTS said authorities in Ticino, on the border to Italy, had confirmed the case occurred in their region.

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First Confirmed Case In Mainland Spain – Report
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls

The first case of coronavirus in mainland Spain has been identified by health authorities in Catalonia, according to the La Vanguardia newspaper.

It would be the country’s fourth confirmed case, if the report is correct, after three tourists from Germany, Italy and Britain were diagnosed with the illness in the Canary Islands and in Mallorca.

----------------------------

Bahrain, Oman Confirm More Cases
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-coronavirus-outbreak-latest-updates-200225003320810.html

Oman has identified two new cases of coronavirus, while Bahrain has confirmed nine new cases, the two countries health ministries reported.

Both Bahrain and Oman reported their first cases on Monday.

-----------------------------

Oman's Khasab Port Suspends Shipping To and From Iran
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/02/china-coronavirus-outbreak-latest-updates-200225003320810.html

Oman's Khasab port is suspending the import and export of goods to and from Iran from February 26 because of new coronavirus outbreak, its operator Marafi said on Twitter on Tuesday.

Oman reported its first two cases of the virus on Monday.

-----------------------------

Conflict Between Religion and Science Shows in Iran
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-51628990

The reports that we are receiving from cities around Iran suggest that the numbers of cases is actually much higher than the Iranian authorities are giving.

Unlike in Italy, Iranian officials are refusing to impose quarantines in areas affected by the outbreak. They say quarantines are old-fashioned and that they do not believe in them.

The Shia shrines in the cities of Qom and Mashhad are still open, despite Qom being a hotbed of the virus.

There are grand ayatollahs in Qom who believe that its shrine, which attracts millions of pilgrims from around the world, and its important seminary, which hosts many foreign religious students, are the pride of the Shia world.

Shutting them down would be a huge step for the clerics and not one that they would be likely to take unless they come under international pressure.

We can see the clear conflict between religious fundamentalism and science.

Iran also lacks the medical equipment it needs to help contain the outbreak. It has run out of masks and does not have enough testing kits.

A number of medical workers have also been infected, so there is a worry that they will soon run out of doctors and nurses to attend to those with the disease.

The majority of Iranians are extremely worried.

... A separate WHO mission to Iran, which had been announced for Tuesday, has been delayed, WHO spokesman Christian Lindmeier said, adding that he had no date for its departure.

The outbreak has infected more than 80,000 globally


COVID-19 Positive - Iraj Harirchi (L) coughed and appeared to be sweating during a news conference on Monday

------------------------------

Donald Trump has played down fears of the coronavirus spreading in the US, after requesting an additional $2.5bn to reinforce defenses “in case something should happen”.

On Tuesday, during his two-day visit to India, the US president told a news conference that the situation was “very well under control in our country”

Meanwhile, he said China was getting the epidemic under control.

... They’ve had a rough patch and ... it looks like they’re getting it under control more and more. They’re getting it more and more under control so I think that’s a problem that’s going to go away, but we lost almost 1,000 points yesterday on the [stock] market.

... Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer, said there were a shortage of kits to test for the virus and condemned Trump’s proposed budget cuts to health agencies including the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

... All of the warning lights are flashing bright red. We are staring down a potential pandemic, and the administration has no plan. We have a crisis of coronavirus, and President Trump has no plan, no urgency, no understanding of the facts or how to coordinate a response.

- Senate minority leader, Chuck Schumer

-------------------------

Meanwhile ...  China have “repurposed the machinery of government” such as check points, toll booths and tightly controlled transportation networks, to address the disease outbreak while taking multiple hospitals out of general use.

... Everyone has a role and it has been repurposed to fit into this machinery and it works through a prevention and control task force that answers straight to the state council and president.

Its a technologically turbocharged response. They are using big data and AI in places. They’ve had to manage massive amounts of data and map huge numbers of contacts, 70,000 people over vast areas.

40,000 healthcare workers, many of whom volunteered, are in Wuhan helping with the response, according to Bruce Aylward, head of the WHO-Chino joint mission on covid-19.

----------------------------

Trump Faces ‘Black Swan’ Threat to Economy and Re-Election
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/24/trump-threat-coronavirus-reelection-economy-117272

----------------------------

Trump Claims No One Heard of Ebola Before 2014 in Rambling Press Conference From India
https://gizmodo.com/trump-claims-no-one-heard-of-ebola-before-2014-in-rambl-1841902201

... Trump defended his past comments about Ebola patients in 2014, claiming, “at that time nobody had even heard of Ebola or even conceived of something where you basically... people would disintegrate.” (... ya never heard about Cat 5 hurricanes, either)

... “I think it is going to be under control,” Trump said about coronavirus during his press conference in New Delhi, which was livestreamed on YouTube. “I think it is going to work out fine. We hope so.”

... Public health experts like Harvard epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch warn that the coronavirus could infect anywhere from 40 to 70 percent of everyone in the world, according to the Washington Post. And it’s not clear that the U.S. health system is prepared for a serious cluster of the virus emerging uncontrolled in the country.

------------------------------

Trump Claims Vaccine Is ‘Very Close’ Amid Coronavirus Outbreak — But White House Says He Was Talking About Ebola
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/white-house-says-trumps-vaccine-claims-about-ebola-not-coronavirus.html

The White House said Tuesday that President Donald Trump was referring to Ebola — not the deadly coronavirus — when he claimed that “we’re very close to a vaccine.”

Trump discussed the fast-spreading virus, at a press conference during a state visit to India.

An NBC News reporter asked the president whether his administration’s response to the coronavirus squared with his criticism in 2014 of President Barack Obama’s handling of the Ebola outbreak.

“We’re still working on Ebola,” Trump said. “We’re doing a vaccine ... we’re still working on that.”

With coronavirus, the death rate is currently closer to “1 or 2 percent,” Trump said.

“In the other case it was a virtual 100 percent. Now they have it, they have studied it, they know very much. In fact, we’re very close to a vaccine,” Trump said.

Elsewhere in the press conference, Trump downplayed the threat of the coronavirus to the U.S., saying, “We’re really down to probably 10” cases.

There are currently 53 confirmed U.S. cases of coronavirus.

-----------------------------

[Bruce Steele]

We humans tend to our sick and if they can’t go to the hospital because there are no more hospital beds we keep them at home. If death is close for a family member custom says we need to visit them and say our goodbyes . For a highly communicable disease whole families can become fatalities.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/18/coronavirus-kills-chinese-film-director-family-wuhan-covid-19

Quarantine in tight quarters , like your apartment , a hospital ward, or a ship cabin is not how a quarantine should be implemented. If I were to design a quarantine procedure it would be to isolate each individual , in tents if necessary. What masks, suits, gloves and face masks are available should be used by those who carry food, or deal with hygiene for those stricken . The care givers should have first access to protective gear.
 Food can be bought ahead of time and if you don’t have a couple months of dry goods stored away by now you are either in denial or you expect someone else to carry you through the quarantines that will inevitably happen. Being a positive thinker is fine until it gets you killed.

Here is some quality film from inside Wuhan. Nothing shocking. There is ,near the end of the film, a man singing from his apartment window. It is worth your time to watch.

https://www.sixthtone.com/news/1005196/film-crew-documents-life-in-wuhan-amid-covid-19-epidemic

Over one billion


 

[Sigmetnow]

Italy scrambles to contain coronavirus after admitting hospital mess-up

Patient 1' mishandled
Conte on Monday night said that the hospital that treated the first coronavirus case in the country's north, known as Patient 1, had not followed protocol. Conte did not elaborate on what protocols were breached.

It was clear "there has been a management of the hospital not entirely proper according to prudent protocols, which are recommended in these cases, and this has certainly contributed to the spread," he said.

Italian authorities have identified Patient 1 as a 38-year-old man, giving only the name Mattia.

Mattia was originally in intensive care for respiratory problems at a hospital in Codogno, but is now being treated at the Policlinico San Matteo in Pavia, about 35 kilometers south of Milan, Italian Civil Protection Agency spokesman Juri Pittaluga told CNN. Mattia's pregnant wife, Valentina, has also tested positive for the virus and is in the Sacco hospital in Milan, but her health condition is "not worrying at all," Pittaluga said. ...

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/25/europe/italy-coronavirus-backfoot-intl/index.html

[wili]

At this hour, the Dow is dropping like a stone again, down over 1% already

[vox_mundi]

Coronavirus Exposes the Divide Between China's Rich and Poor
https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-exposes-the-divide-between-chinas-rich-and-poor/a-52526369

The coronavirus outbreak in China has come down hard on the country's poor who cannot afford to be quarantined, have less access to supplies, and do not have the money or the connections to leave the country.

... Despite Beijing's promises of stamping out social and economic disparities, inequality remains a major problem in China. The coronavirus crisis has come to clearly demonstrate the impact of these inequalities on public health and access to services. Experts warn low- and middle-income Chinese will suffer the most as the epidemic continues.

"Income disparity certainly makes a lot of difference in crisis-stricken China, and Hubei in particular," Kent Deng, a professor of economic history at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told DW.

The cost of food, medicines and supplies have peaked since the outbreak, but "those with a deep pocket will be able to maintain their lifestyle regardless," Deng said, adding that lower and middle classes "will become impoverished this time next year" once their savings have dried up.

According to the economist, China's "well-to-do class" counts for around 50 million in a total population of 1.4 billion. "The vast majority living hand to mouth cannot possibly afford the outbreak of the new virus," he warned.

... For those who can afford it, there is home delivery available of meals, groceries, and certain medicines in quarantined cities like Wuhan. Delivery drivers wearing face masks deliver anything imaginable to people's homes — from face masks to margaritas.

Alongside doctors and nurses, delivery workers have also been hailed as "heroes" by many in China for their hard work. They are also praised for risking their own health to keep the virus from spreading by helping others stay at home.

However, food delivery drivers or small shop workers cannot stop working because they lack savings or social support. Many delivery drivers are also stigmatized as potential carriers of the coronavirus.

... White-collar professionals can afford to stay home and often have sufficient savings that allow them to halt work for a period of time. Many white-collar jobs can also be done remotely.

"Many workers are employed informally, which makes it impossible to receive social security protection such as unemployment insurance … it's difficult for them to be out of work and they are more vulnerable to catching the virus," Christina Maags, a lecturer in Chinese politics at London's SOAS China Institute.

She added that China's underdeveloped welfare state exacerbates inequalities as low-income workers are not protected by a social safety net.

According to Fei Yan, an associate professor at Beijing's Tsinghua University, lower-income Chinese living in cities are also vulnerable to overcrowding and lack of healthcare options.

For example, in smaller houses and apartments, it is more difficult to separate sick and healthy family members.

"If a case breaks out in a poor family without a two-story house, it might be a tragedy in the end," Yan said.

Guanxi

... Travel has also become a right of the rich in China. Since the outbreak, travel restrictions have been imposed that will keep the average person from moving. But those who know the right people can sometimes still get around.

"When people have received approval to travel abroad, or were able to buy plane tickets, this is commonly not only the result of being able to pay, but also of knowing the right people," said Maags, adding that China's wealthy were more likely to have political connections which "enable them to circumvent restrictions others face, especially during a health crisis."

Personalized networks of power in China are known as "Guanxi," and in China money and connections go hand in hand.

"Cases in which high-income people have managed to escape abroad demonstrate the pervasiveness of corruption in China, where your 'guanxi' networks are equally as important as the money you have," said Maags.

-----------------------

Only a third of Chinese small businesses open as outbreak continues to disrupt labour and logistics
https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3052307/coronavirus-only-third-chinese-businesses-open-outbreak
Government says just 30 per cent of small businesses are back to work, with many manufacturers struggling to source labour due to the coronavirus outbreak

Larger producers are faring better, but still suffering a logistical hangover from China’s nationwide containment efforts

“People are working without a script, people in Europe and the US have no idea of the devastation in China,” said Kent Kedl, senior partner for Greater China and North Asia at Control Risks, a risk consultancy ... Over the years we have helped a lot of companies do live action crisis planning on their supply chains, but the scenario was always that one critical supplier goes down. In this case, the whole country was down – nobody ever ran that scenario

[vox_mundi]

Health Officials Are Warning That the Spread of Coronavirus In the United States Appears Inevitable.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/coronavirus-china-live-updates/2020/02/25/f4045570-5758-11ea-9000-f3cffee23036_story.html

The comments were made in separate briefings to lawmakers and reporters on Tuesday, marking an escalation in tone and urgency.“Ultimately we expect we will see community spread in the United States,” Nancy Messonnier, a top official at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, told reporters.

...“It’s not a question of if this will happen but when this will happen and how many people in this country will have severe illnesses.”

- Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases

--------------------------------

CDC Outlines What Closing Schools, Businesses Would Look Like in US Pandemic
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/25/cdc-outlines-what-closing-schools-businesses-would-look-like-in-us-pandemic.html

The CDC outlined what schools and businesses will likely need to do if the COVID-19 virus becomes an epidemic outbreak in the U.S. Schools should consider dividing students into smaller groups or close and use “internet-based tele-schooling,” Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, told reporters on a conference call.

“For adults, businesses can replace in-person meetings with video or telephone conferences and increase teleworking options,” Messonnier said. She said local communities and cities may need to “modify, postpone or cancel mass gatherings.” Hospitals may need to triage patients differently, add more tele-health services and delay elective surgery, she said.

... “We are asking the American public to work with us to prepare for the expectation that this is going to be bad”

- Dr. Nancy Messonnier, director of the CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases

... “I understand this whole situation may seem overwhelming and that disruption to everyday life may be severe. But these are things that people need to start thinking about now,” Messionnier said on Tuesday. “You should think about what you would do for child care if schools or daycares closed.”

---------------------

Bahrain Reports Nine New Cases of Coronavirus

BEIRUT — Bahrain announced nine new cases of coronavirus midday Tuesday local time, after earlier announcing two cases, bringing the total number of patients to 17 in the tiny island nation.

-----------------------

Italy confirms 283 cases of coronavirus; more than 60 new infections within 24 hours

-----------------------

Prague Airport to check passengers from Italy for virus symptoms; Bulgaria Air cancels flights to Milan

-------------------------

Iranian deputy health minister and opposition lawmaker say they are infected with the coronavirus

------------------------

Italy Mortality Rate Similar To China’s
https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/25/coronavirus-update-italy-mortality-rate-similar-to-chinas/#e1850e6c43c8

Italy’s surprise blowout of the new coronavirus, dubbed Covid-19 by the WHO, shows that — despite the country bursting onto the scene over the last few days — their mortality rate is similar to China’s.

What we know is that some 229 people have contracted the respiratory infection in Italy as of Monday night. Italy is now the European “epicenter” of Covid-19 with a reported seven deaths as of Monday evening.

In Italy, roughly 3% of the confirmed number of cases ended in death as of Monday. But the number of new cases jumped early Tuesday to 270, so that has the mortality rate now at 2.6%

--------------------------

There have been three further deaths in the coronavirus outbreak in northern Italy, according to a local official. The authorities say the number of virus cases in the country has grown to 322, with 10 deaths now confirmed. (3.3% mortality rate)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/feb/25/coronavirus-live-updates-outbreak-latest-news-italy-italia-deaths-symptoms-china-stocks-wall-street-dow-jones-economy-falls

[pietkuip]

If this becomes widespread do we have enough ventilators for those serious cases?

Sweden did not have enough places according to press reports from previous times (two seasons with swine influensa). Even when the Getinge company is producing relatively cheap ones.

Patients were moved around a lot between hospitals. And then as now, the bad cases need those ventilators for many weeks.

I don't think I will even bother to call when I will get difficulties breathing.

[colchonero]

South Korea 977
Italy 322

[nanning]

I think the poll is an entertainment factor that's very inappropriate. We have humans fearful/dying and families crying.
It is coming to you and your family too.
Please, remove the poll.