COVID-19

[blumenkraft]

Oh, Qatar is finally doing something.

Qatar makes face masks mandatory under threat of $55,000 fine. Move is compulsory for anyone who steps outside of their home from Sunday, with violators also facing prison sentences

Link >> https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/coronavirus-qatar-makes-face-masks-mandatory-threat-55000-fine

[GrauerMausling]

Some anecdotal story about the first cases in Germany:
in the house of my brother a woman was admitted to hospital on January 1st with breathing problems. He knows the date as the ambulance was in front of the house when he left the house to visit me on that day as we had lunch together. So we are quite sure about the date.
In the hospital she showed ALL the Covid 19 problems including a lengthy stay in the ICU. Of course at that time nobody new about Covid 19 so they treated it as a viral pneumonia. Now they did an antibody test and this one is positive. So it could by that we already had the first case in my city at the very beginning of 2020. 

[northsylvania]

Not too sure about this development.
"Higavi said his team are en route to a solution: administering the drug colchicine to coronavirus patients.
Colchicine is an approved drug used in the prevention and treatment of gout attacks, caused by too much uric acid in the blood.
Higavi said they have completed testing colchicine on mice and found that it successfully inhibited the release of alpha defensin. Now, they are waiting for the necessary approvals to test it on human coronavirus patients."
Like hydroxychloroquine, colchicine is relatively inexpensive but also has some particularly nasty side effects. For example, people on cholesterol lowering drugs might not be able to tolerate it.

[vox_mundi]

Agreed northsylvania

Colchicine is much more toxic than hydroxychloroquine

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/20586571/

... Colchicine has a low threshold for toxicity and must be used with extreme care. It has a narrow therapeutic index, with no clear-cut distinction between nontoxic, toxic, and lethal doses, causing substantial confusion among clinicians.  Although colchicine poisoning is sometimes intentional, unintentional toxicity is common and often associated with a poor outcome.

Drug interactions: CYP 3A4 and P-glycoprotein inhibitors, such as clarithromycin, erythromycin, ketoconazole, ciclosporin, and natural grapefruit juice can increase colchicine concentrations. Co-administration with statins may increase the risk of myopathy.

In the United States, there are several hundred recorded cases of colchicine toxicity annually; approximately 10% of which end with serious morbidity or mortality. Many of these adverse events resulted from the use of intravenous colchicine.

[bbr2315]

bbr,

I agree with Steve. The longer you can delay the unavoidable (?) the more chance we have to find new therapies and/or vaccine. Meaning: those countires that had a "good" first wave and could delay the second one long enough will likely see much lower death rates in the end.

As for Vit D: I am not sure about how this works but there certainly seems to be some seasonality - though not totally convincing. Eg: Brazil has plenty of sunshine even during winter (see Rio's sunshine hours, attached) and still they have a strong wave.

Still, even the common cold is seasonal for reasons not understood yet...

Those are also valid points re: therapies and vaccine!

Influenza's seasonality is roughly bounded by the tropics. Rio and SP both fall right around 23-24S. It is borderline but I would consider it "winter" there though it will probably end sooner than in BA / Santiago and even SP. It is definitely a bit of an odd spot. The spread in the tropics is confusing as the situation in Mexico and India is also worsening (and Middle East) and they are NHEM. Perhaps it is just sufficient community spread + air conditioning?

[Bruce Steele]

We used to buy colchicine at the plant nursery to create mutagenesis in pot plants. ( fifty years ago ) It really does some strange things to weed. If I recall it tended to result in hermaphrodite plants , the bane of growers everywhere. Lots of other weird plant results also.  I forget why we wanted polyploid plants. 

https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpls.2019.00476/full

[kassy]

COVID-19 Can Cause Loss of Smell, And Scientists Finally Discovered Why

...

For the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), however, the pattern of smell loss is different. Many people with COVID-19 reported a sudden loss of sense of smell and then a sudden and full return to a normal sense of smell in a week or two.

Interestingly, many of these people said their nose was clear, so smell loss cannot be attributed to a blocked nose. For others, smell loss was prolonged and several weeks later they still had no sense of smell. Any theory of anosmia in COVID-19 has to account for both of these patterns.

This sudden return of a normal sense of smell suggests an obstructive smell loss in which the aroma molecules cannot reach the receptors in the nose (the same type of loss one gets with a clothes peg on the nose).

Now that we have CT scans of the noses and sinuses of people with COVID-19 smell loss, we can see that the part of the nose that does the smelling, the olfactory cleft, is blocked with swollen soft tissue and mucus – known as a cleft syndrome. The rest of the nose and sinuses look normal and patients have no problem breathing through their nose.

...

Initially, we thought that the virus might be infecting and destroying the olfactory neurons. These are the cells that transmit the signal from the aroma molecule in your nose to the area in the brain where these signals get interpreted as "smell"

However, an international collaboration showed recently that the ACE2 proteins the virus needs to invade the cells were not found on the olfactory neurons. But they were found on cells called "sustentacular cells", which support the olfactory neurons.

We expect that these support cells are likely to be the ones that are damaged by the virus, and the immune response would cause swelling of the area but leave the olfactory neurons intact. When the immune system has dealt with the virus, the swelling subsides and the aroma molecules have a clear route to their undamaged receptors and the sense of smell returns to normal.

and more on:
https://www.sciencealert.com/scientists-worked-out-how-covid-19-disrupts-some-people-s-smell

[Alexander555]

Earley winter result ? They had a few cold days in South-Africa last week. https://www.news24.com/news24/southafrica/news/more-field-hospitals-for-eastern-cape-as-union-expects-explosion-of-covid-19-cases-20200622

[Archimid]

Two hair stylists with the coronavirus wore masks. So did their 140 clients. Of those tested, none got sick

https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2020/06/two-hair-stylists-with-the-coronavirus-wore-masks-so-did-their-140-clients-of-those-tested-none-got-sick.html

CLEVELAND, Ohio — In Missouri, two hair stylists who tested positive for COVID-19 after working in close contact with 140 clients and six coworkers. Local health officials feared it would be the start of a major outbreak.

But it wasn’t.

The reason? Employees and patrons at the Great Clips salon were required to wear masks, health officials said.

[vox_mundi]

Two Trump Staffers Who Attended Tulsa Rally Test Positive for Covid-19
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/live/2020/jun/22/john-bolton-donald-trump-protests-coronavirus-phoenix-speech-latest-news-updates

Two more Trump campaign staffers tested positive for coronavirus. The two staffers attended the president’s Saturday rally in Tulsa, although the campaign said they wore masks during the event.

That news brings the total number of Tulsa rally staffers who have tested positive for the virus to eight. Six members of the advance team tested positive before the rally, but Trump decided to move forward with the event anyway.

The updated number of cases among the campaign staff will almost certainly intensify concerns over how the virus may have been spread at the indoor rally.

Even as more of his campaign staffers test positive for coronavirus, Trump is still scheduled to hold a campaign event in Phoenix, Arizona, tomorrow.

... An alarming 20% of Covid-19 tests in Arizona are coming back positive.

------------------------------

Half of US States See Coronavirus Surge As Officials Warn First Wave Far From Over
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/22/us-coronavirus-spikes-first-wave-not-over

29 states reported a jump in cases, while Trump says increased testing is a problem: ‘It makes us look like we have more cases’

... Trump dodged a question about whether he ordered coronavirus testing to be slowed, as he claimed during his Tulsa rally on Saturday. “If it did slow down, frankly, I think we’re way ahead of ourselves, if you want to know the truth. We’ve done too good a job,” the president said in an interview today. The comment appeared to be at odds with his advisers’ claims that he was joking about slowing testing.



------------------------------

[El Cid]

https://voxeu.org/article/unmasked-effect-face-masks-spread-covid-19

"This column looks at the town of Jena and other German regions that introduced face masks before the rest of the country to see whether the requirement makes a difference in the number of new COVID-19 cases. Requiring face masks to be worn decreases the growth rate of COVID-19 cases by about 40% in Germany."

"Jena presents a unique case in Germany (see also Mitze et al. 2020), as the obligation to wear face masks in public transport, shops, and workplaces was introduced much earlier there (on 6 April) than in all other regions in Germany (around 27 April). The introduction of obligatory face masks was accompanied by a public campaign “Jena zeigt Maske” (“Jena shows mask”), which started one week earlier to make the local population aware of this novel measure."

"If we look at the number of COVID-19 cases in Jena, masks seem to have a positive effect. The number of registered new infections fell to almost zero in the days after masks were introduced"

Our solution is to apply the synthetic control method (Abadie and Gardeazabal 2003, Abadie et al. 2010, Abadie 2020) to construct a counterfactual that closely follows the COVID-19 trend in Jena before masks were introduced. The idea is to construct a weighted average of similar regions in Germany (with no mask obligations) at the time when mask-wearing became compulsory in Jena.

[gerontocrat]

I've had a look at the 7 day averages for daily new cases and daily deaths.

World - deaths quickly up as new cases rise.

USA - deaths not yet rising in line with recent increase in daily new cases - but we know hospitalisations are up, so the grim reaper is standing by.

[etienne]

Two hair stylists with the coronavirus wore masks. So did their 140 clients. Of those tested, none got sick

https://www.cleveland.com/coronavirus/2020/06/two-hair-stylists-with-the-coronavirus-wore-masks-so-did-their-140-clients-of-those-tested-none-got-sick.html

CLEVELAND, Ohio — In Missouri, two hair stylists who tested positive for COVID-19 after working in close contact with 140 clients and six coworkers. Local health officials feared it would be the start of a major outbreak.

But it wasn’t.

The reason? Employees and patrons at the Great Clips salon were required to wear masks, health officials said.

Well, there is also this study coming from a country where people wear masks...

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3083394/university-hong-kong-study-finds-eyes-are
University of Hong Kong study finds eyes are ‘important route’ for coronavirus, up to 100 times more infectious than Sars

I wouldn't put too much trusts in masks, it helps a lot, but it doesn't provide a full protection.

[kassy]

Detailed mask discussions can be held in that thread.
The issue is not full protection but a little is better then none.   

[blumenkraft]

400,000 forced into lockdown after local COVID-19 outbreak in Germany | DW News

[bbr2315]

The official death toll is now heading towards 500K rather quickly. If we include excess deaths we are probably around 600K+ by now. That means we are probably no more than a week or two away from 1% of the global population having been infected by COVID (750K deaths = 1% of 75M = 1% of 7.5B or thereabouts).

The exponential curve is not progressing uniformly everywhere but we are clearly heading for the bigger numbers now. It took six months to get to 1% globally, in the next six months, I think 10%+ globally would be a LOW estimate.

[blumenkraft]

I voted 1 to 10 mio in 10 years. 1 to 10 mio in 2020 seems more likely now... 

[bbr2315]

I voted 1 to 10 mio in 10 years. 1 to 10 mio in 2020 seems more likely now... 

I think we will hit 1M deaths (actual) in about 30-60 days (?) 10M could be realistic for 12/31.



While cases in the US are going up, deaths are still dropping precipitously (and I don't think data is being fudged, if anything some places may now be overcounting).

In Spanish Flu, the herald wave mortality of .99% was doubled in autumn in Bergen, Norway to over 2%. I would suggest the seeming relaxation in mortality rates across the NHEM is tied to the rising Vit D in populations. Not only does it blunt transmissibility, but it also is very helpful vs mortality.

Evidently we are seeing significant indoor transmission take place in the hottest regions during NHEM summer (?) this would explain Mexico, Florida, India, Texas, Arizona..... and while cases are going up, severity is still somewhat blunted in the aforementioned US states (though it is still impactful a la 1% mortality summertime Norwegian Spanish Flu).

In Qatar and Singapore we have seen absurdly low mortality rates alongside the very high numbers of cases.... I believe this reflects the preponderance of the virus amongst their YOUNG populations i.e. migrant workers who are active and healthy. Perhaps this is also going on in the rising U.S. cases, where better testing combined with relaxation of quarantines is resulting in more young people getting infected, "benign-ing" the overall results?

This will change come 10/1 but in the meantime it is probably a good thing we have this kind of transmission ongoing at this time of year as it will blunt an autumnal wave. One thing that should be noted is the total population infected between the various waves of Spanish Flu was approximately 40-45% in all locations in the Norway 1918 study (which also included Maryland as a contrast to dietary vit D impact on mortality -- spoiler, it is significant). With NYC probably at 30-35% infected, this would suggest any additional outbreaks in the city will be minimal, and that this initial outbreak was a BEST CASE SCENARIO.

Elsewhere, if Spanish Flu was any guide, most locations will see two to three total waves, some may see up to 40% of their total population infected in their primary waves IF they occur in autumn. However, the catch is that there is a potential that the autumnal mortality rate will actually double from where it is today (starting ~10/1 as I keep yammering on about), which theoretically means that a local epidemic on the scale of NYC replicated seven months later in the year could yield a per capita death toll 2X as high (or higher considering that the additional mortality + hospitalizations would further cripple hospitals), all else being equal. 

The mortality data out of Georgia is disturbing.... more zipcodes in NYC are drifting towards .5% total pop death toll, I assume as data is processed, which means a bunch is probably still missing. The worst-hit zip had an additional death added, bringing its total to 82 and its population fatality rate to .662%.

[bbr2315]

Georgia Counties Deaths / IFR of .1%+

Under 10.5K = 36 counties, 6 of which have .1%+ IFRs....

Hancock: 32 / .36%
Randolph: 23 / .31%
Terrell: 27 / .30%
Early: 31 / .29%
Turner: 16 / .19%
Wilcox: 15 / .17%

Above Early County (pop: 10.5K), only five counties have fatality rates above .1%.

Mitchell: 38 / .16%
Butts: 32 / .14%
Upson: 43 / .16%
Sumter: 49 / .16%
Dougherty: 151 / .16%

I wonder if this represents part of the undercount going on (i.e. they catalog the dead more effectively in places of few residents). But it also indicates the virus has spread much more effectively in places of lowest population, paradoxically, or that the mortality rate in the most rural areas is very high. If it is the latter, it means a lot of spread is yet to come, which is terrifying (though I think a lot is imminent in either case).

[Archimid]

Detailed mask discussions can be held in that thread.
The issue is not full protection but a little is better then none.

The rule I'm following for masks post is:

If it is about masks and their relationship to c19, the post goes here. If it is about masking alone (masking efficiency, proper mask use, etc) I use the masking thread.

[blumenkraft]

Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19 [VISUALISATION]

Link >> https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2562261/

[vox_mundi]

New Epidemic Model Indicates COVID-19 Here to Stay, Likely to Cause 235,000 U.S. Deaths by October
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-epidemic-covid-deaths-october.html

... This model incorporates a number of parameters of significant relevance to pandemics, particularly COVID-19, and is capable of making predictions of such parameters and their interdependence.

"We decided to create a new model of this coronavirus in order to predict a larger range of parameters that prior models don't," Khan said. "One major feature is the asymptomatic spreaders—people who don't know they are sick, wander into society and spread the virus. Another feature is the lockdown that we all have experienced. We decided to start from that perspective and build a new model. This kind of model is described as a compartment model, where society is divided into conceptual compartments."

The compartments used in the model include: susceptible, undetected infected, detected infected, detected recovered, social distancing, undetected recovery/death, and detected deaths.

"The susceptible population is the majority of the population of a region or country at the onset of the disease," Khan explained. "There's a small number of what we call 'unknown infected," because they're not sick enough to realize and go for testing, be hospitalized or stay home. There's a small number of those who start the spread of the infection. Then, as people's symptoms progress, or as a result of randomized testing, they become detected infected. These detected infected people either go on to recover, which puts them in a new compartment, or they die, and that's another compartment."

Hussain said other aspects also play a pivotal role in who may or may not be more susceptible to contract COVID-19.

"Factors such as culture, food habits, political systems, skin color and latitude are variables," he said. "For example, with China's political system, if they are ordered to stay six feet away from one another tomorrow, everyone would comply. Latitude is a major factor because of how much sunshine a person is exposed to."

The paper makes some bold predictions, including:

• - In continued lockdown, COVID-19 infections will persist for at least two years.
• - Infections, however, will rapidly rise (by an order of magnitude) if lockdown is lifted—peaking after two months—recurring yearly, similar to influenza.
• - Repeated lockdowns and releases do not avoid an endemic infection, even following a White House release guideline of 14 days of declining cases, or even a stricter 28 days.
• - Earlier lockdowns would have cut COVID-19 deaths in New York, but, surprisingly, not in Texas.
• - Infections could be curtailed by stringent measures like strict lockdown compliance, face masks, social distancing, contact tracing and isolation, etc.

The most telling aspect of their paper is the numbers. According to their predictions, by Oct. 1, there could potentially be 3 million COVID-19 cases, and 235,000 total deaths in the U.S.

The reason why earlier lockdown would have saved tens of thousands of lives in the state of New York but wouldn't have made much of a difference in Texas is because of how well New York complied with lockdown measures, Khan said.

Khan et al., A Predictive Model for COVID-19 Spread Applied to Six US States. arXiv:2006.05955
https://arxiv.org/abs/2006.05955

[dnem]

New Epidemic Model Indicates COVID-19 Here to Stay, Likely to Cause 235,000 U.S. Deaths by October

The most telling aspect of their paper is the numbers. According to their predictions, by Oct. 1, there could potentially be 3 million COVID-19 cases, and 235,000 total deaths in the U.S.

There are already >2.4 million cases and about 120k deaths. 3 million cases and 235k deaths by October does not make sense, especially as the IFR appears, for the moment, to be going down.

[vox_mundi]

All models are wrong, but some are useful.

[greylib]

Lots of stuff for Statistics freaks at the UK Office of National Statistics. They've cross-referenced current death certificates with the 2011 census. (That's why children under 9 aren't included.)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26

Religious differences:
For males aged 65 years and over, those identifying as Jewish or Muslim have a raised rate of death involving COVID-19 compared with all other religious groups, at 795 deaths per 100,000 and 755 deaths per 100,000 respectively. For females aged 65 years and over, those who identified as Hindu, Muslim or Jewish had a higher rate of death involving COVID-19 compared with all other religious groups.

"No Religion" had a lower death rate than "Christian". Nobody's quite sure why, nor why Jewish people are at the top of the death table. That really IS surprising to me – Judaism sets out a lot of hygiene rules, which are followed pretty thoroughly even by the non-devout. In fact, it's led to anti-Jewish pogroms in the past: "Why did no Jew die in the plague we've just suffered? They must be in league with the devil!" I doubt it's a genetic thing: Islam and Judaism are both very diverse genetically, yet they're at the top of the table. The only thing I can find common to both is circumcision, but that surely can't be right. The numbers are too big for statistical error, I think.

Racial differences:
Males from a Black ethnic background had a higher age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) of death involving the coronavirus (COVID-19) than those from other ethnic backgrounds. Their ASMR of death was 2.9 times greater than that of White males.

Analysis also revealed raised death rates among males in Bangladeshi or Pakistani, Indian, and other ethnic groups. Males in these ethnic groups had rates 2.2 times, 1.8 times and 1.9 times higher than those of White ethnic background, respectively.

Females had a lower rate of death involving COVID-19 than males across all ethnic groups, with Black females having less than half the rate of Black males.

The pattern for females was largely like that of males. Females of Black ethnic background had the highest rate of death involving COVID-19, at 119.8 deaths per 100,000. This was 2.3 times higher than that of White females.

All other ethnic groups, other than Chinese, had a statistically significantly raised rate of death compared with White females.

As a white atheist my chances look better than a lot of people, which has cheered me up. If I were 27 instead of 72, that would improve things, as would turning female. But, no thank you – I remember being young, and I prefer now. And females always get the short end of the stick, so I'll put up with being an Old White Male.

[SteveMDFP]

"No Religion" had a lower death rate than "Christian". Nobody's quite sure why, nor why Jewish people are at the top of the death table. That really IS surprising to me – Judaism sets out a lot of hygiene rules, which are followed pretty thoroughly even by the non-devout. 

My hypothesis would be that those who identify with a minority religion may be more likely to attend services.  This is how they stay in contact with the group they identify with.  If you're a member of a majority religion in a nation, attending religious services may not serve the same purpose.

It's possible that a similar pattern may hold for racial/ethnic minorities.

[dnem]

All models are wrong, but some are useful.

Well yeah, I agree with that basic sentiment, but saying there will be only 600,000 more cases but 115,000 more deaths by October is mutually inconsistent and just plain wrong and makes me question anything else in the piece.

[Tom_Mazanec]

To the four people who voted one billion or more deaths:
Do you still expect that? Why or why not?

[cognitivebias2]

New Epidemic Model Indicates COVID-19 Here to Stay, Likely to Cause 235,000 U.S. Deaths by October

The most telling aspect of their paper is the numbers. According to their predictions, by Oct. 1, there could potentially be 3 million COVID-19 cases, and 235,000 total deaths in the U.S.

There are already >2.4 million cases and about 120k deaths. 3 million cases and 235k deaths by October does not make sense, especially as the IFR appears, for the moment, to be going down.

Of the 2.4 million cases, 1.3M are still active, providing a pool of potential victims to close the gap.  That said, 3M total cases will probably happen in 15-25 days, while 235k deaths should be at least 60 days out.

[vox_mundi]

New Epidemic Model Indicates COVID-19 Here to Stay, Likely to Cause 235,000 U.S. Deaths by October

The most telling aspect of their paper is the numbers. According to their predictions, by Oct. 1, there could potentially be 3 million COVID-19 cases, and 235,000 total deaths in the U.S.

There are already >2.4 million cases and about 120k deaths. 3 million cases and 235k deaths by October does not make sense, especially as the IFR appears, for the moment, to be going down.

Something to consider:

When they prepared and submitted their manuscript on June 10 there were:

Positive tests: 1,936,161
Patient deaths: 104,400

... with a declining death rate and no (or little) evidence of the post-Holiday, post-lockdown surge that is evident in 29 states (2 weeks later).

Agreed that their assumption (that no rational leadership would continue to open-up in the face of rising hospitalization) is flawed.

What they need to learn from this exercise is to weight their variables differently and consider more irrational scenarios in the future.

[oren]

To the four people who voted one billion or more deaths:
Do you still expect that? Why or why not?

With true IFR now known to be ~1% assuming reasonable healthcare, and with countries managing to prevent total collapse of health systems using various lockdown and social distancing strategies (on both nationwide and personal levels), I think an expectation of a billion deaths, or even 100 million deaths, would now be irrational. With a quick and effective vaccine or a miracle cure/treatment we should manage to remain in 1-10M, and without we will end up in 10-100M.

[vox_mundi]

Trump—After ‘Slow The Testing Down’ Remark—Will End Federal Funding For Testing Sites
https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsolender/2020/06/24/trump-after-slow-the-testing-down-remark-will-end-federal-funding-for-testing-sites/amp/

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/24/coronavirus-federal-government-to-end-funding-some-covid-19-test-sites.html

Just days after walking back President Trump’s comments about “slowing down” coronavirus testing at a rally in Tulsa, the White House now plans to end funding for coronavirus testing sites in several states as the virus continues to ravage parts of the country, according to reports from CNN and Talking Points Memo.

The White House attempted to walk that comment back, with one official telling Forbes Trump was “obviously kidding” and trade advisor Peter Navarro calling it “tongue-in-cheek,” but Trump appeared to stand by the comment on Monday, saying the U.S. has done “too good a job” at testing, and on Tuesday he insisted, “I don’t kid.”



Despite White House Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany claiming Trump was being sarcastic in saying “I don’t kid,” it seems his Tulsa remark has become manifest, as the White House is planning to end federal funding for 13 coronavirus testing sites across five states on June 30.

The sites, down from 41 originally put in place to speed up testing at the local level, include seven in hard-hit Texas, where cases are currently surging, as well as two in Illinois and New Jersey and one in Colorado and Pennsylvania each.

Testing is already a serious issue in Texas, as people have had to wait in long lines for over two hours to receive tests.

------------------------------------

Texas Hits All-time High for COVID-19 Cases; Governor Urges Residents to Stay Home
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2020/06/23/texas-governor-says-texans-should-stay-home-state-hits-all-time-high-covid-19-cases/3247472001/

... "Because the spread is so rampant right now, there's never a reason for you to have to leave your home," Gov. Greg Abbott told CNN affiliate KBTX. "Unless you do need to go out, the safest place for you is at your home."

“Texas will report an all-time high in the number of cases of people testing positive of more than 5,000,” Abbott said in an interview on KBTX. “The hospitalization rate is at an all-time high. Coronavirus is spreading in Brazos County and across the entire state of Texas, which is exactly why action is being taken.”

Hours later, state health officials reported a record 5,489 new COVID-19 cases.

And the state broke its record for hospitalizations for the 12th day in a row, with the Department of State Health Services reporting 4,092 COVID-19 patients in Texas hospitals.

------------------------------------

Houston’s Texas Medical Center (TMC), often referred to as the largest medical center in the world, showed its ICU beds were at 97% of normal capacity. The hospital has maximum capacity for nearly 1,000 more ICU beds if it activates its plans for public health emergencies.

https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/total-icu-bed-occupancy/

... “Should the number of new cases grow too rapidly, it will eventually challenge our ability to treat both Covid-19 and non-Covid-19 patients.”

------------------------------------

California Reports More Than 7,000 Coronavirus Cases, Biggest Daily Jump So Far
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/24/california-reports-more-than-7000-coronavirus-cases-biggest-daily-jump-so-far.html

California reported an additional 7,149 Covid-19 cases since Tuesday, a 69% increase in two days, bringing the state's total to 190,222 cases, according to the state's health department.

"We cannot continue to do what we have done over the last number of weeks," Gov. Gavin Newsom said at apress briefing.

Hospitalizations from Covid-19 have increased 29% over the last 14 days, totaling 4,095 as of Tuesday, Newsom said.

------------------------------------

US Officials Detail Preparations for This Autumn’s ‘Inevitable’ Coronavirus Surge
https://www.defenseone.com/threats/2020/06/officials-detail-preparations-inevitable-coronavirus-surge-fall/166399/

All the officials testifying on Tuesday cautioned that there is likely to be a surge of cases in the fall and winter, which will coincide with flu season. They stressed, however, that they will be better prepared this time around. Adm. Brett Giroir, who heads the U.S. Public Health Service within HHS, said the country will be manufacturing 180 million N95 respirators and conducting at least 40 million tests per month by that time. He said the administration must ensure all of that can happen domestically and is aiming for a 60- to 90-day supply of all the equipment the country will need.

“I’m confident that from here on as we ramp domestic manufacturing that we are going to be in a better position than we were three months ago,” Giroir said.

Fauci added the administration is working to build up personal protective equipment, space on hospital beds, access to ventilators and testing capacity.

“All of that is right now being stored up in the national strategic stockpile in preparation for what we hope never occurs but we know might occur,” Fauci said of the equipment and supplies. He later added a fall spike is likely, suggesting “it’s not going to disappear” and that the goal was to drive the numbers down significantly so the country is better equipped for an “inevitable upsurge in cases.”

Robert Redfield, director of the Centers for Disease Control, put it even more bluntly.

“We are going to experience significant coronavirus infection in the fall and winter,” Redfield said, later adding, “This fall and winter is going to be difficult and we need to prepare for it.”

------------------------------------

East Lansing Bar Patrons Asked to Self-Quarantine After Outbreak
https://www.woodtv.com/health/coronavirus/east-lansing-outbreak-tied-to-popular-bar/amp/

EAST LANSING, Mich. (WOOD) — Those who recently visited a popular bar in East Lansing are being asked to self-quarantine after more than 20 people tested positive for COVID-19.

... At least 25 patrons have tested positive after visiting during that period. About half of the patients have a connection to Michigan State University, and all are aged between 18 and 23 years old, according to the health department.

-----------------------------------

... and don't be bringing any of your shit into my state...

-----------------------------------

NY, NJ and CT Require Travelers From States With High Coronavirus Rates to Quarantine for Two Weeks
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2020/06/24/us/new-york-coronavirus-travel-restriction/index.html

New York, New Jersey and Connecticut issued a travel advisory Wednesday that requires people arriving from states with high coronavirus rates to quarantine for 14 days.

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont said the travel advisory applies to anyone coming from a state with a transmission rate above 10 per 100,000 people on a seven-day rolling average or 10 percent of the total population testing positive on a seven-day rolling average.

"We have to make sure the virus doesn't come in on a plane," Cuomo said.

As of Wednesday, the advisory applies to Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas. It begins tonight at midnight.

Cuomo said each of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut will be responsible for its own enforcement of the quarantine.

In New York, Cuomo said, those violating the quarantine could be subject to a judicial order and mandatory quarantine, and fines are $2,000 for the first violation, $5,000 for the second violation, and $10,000 if you cause harm.

... The interstate travel restrictions are just another consequence of the federal government's inability to create a robust national public health infrastructure. The lack of nationwide rules and effective supply chains has largely left each state on its own and had the effect of pitting them against each other.

--------------------------------------

... b-but what about his bone spurs? ...

-------------------------------------

Trump Will Not Follow New Jersey Coronavirus Quarantine Order, 'He's Not a Civilian,' White House Says
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/24/trump-will-not-follow-new-jersey-coronavirus-quarantine-order.html

The White House said that President Donald Trump will not change his plan to travel to New Jersey this weekend despite a new order by the governor requiring visitors who have been in states with high numbers of coronavirus cases to quarantine for 14 days.

"The president of the United States is not a civilian," said a White House spokesman when asked about Trump's compliance with the quarantine order given his travel Tuesday to Arizona, which has seen a rise in the rate of its Covid-19 cases.

New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy, along with New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont, announced that visitors from states with large numbers of coronavirus cases would be required to quarantine for two weeks, or face fines.

Trump is expected to travel this weekend to his golf club in Bedminster, N.J. In past visits to the club, he has flown on Air Force One to airports in Newark and Morristown.

---------------------------------

EU May Opt to Keep Americans Out When External Borders Open
https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-06-23/eu-could-opt-to-keep-americans-out-when-external-borders-open

The European Union looks set to keep the door shut to American travelers next month after officials discussed whom to allow back into the bloc as the coronavirus crisis subsides and governments ease border controls.

One of the criteria up for discussion is “reciprocity,” which would mean U.S. citizens wouldn’t immediately be allowed into the EU because Europeans are still barred for health reasons from traveling in the other direction. It’s likely that this factor will be combined with other metrics, including the rate of new Covid-19 cases, when deciding whom to bar, according to an internal document seen by Bloomberg News.

[vox_mundi]

White House Ordered NIH to Cancel Coronavirus Research Funding, Fauci Says
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/white-house-ordered-nih-to-cancel-coronavirus-research-funding-fauci-says/

The National Institutes of Health abruptly cut off funding to a long-standing, well-regarded research project on bat coronaviruses only after the White House specifically told it to do so, according to Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/nih-cuts-coronavirus-funding-amid-trump-comments-and-conspiracy-theories/

Fauci made the revelation Tuesday at a Congressional hearing on the federal response to the COVID-19 pandemic, which is caused by a coronavirus that is genetically linked to those found in bats. Rep. Marc Veasey (D-Texas) asked Fauci why the NIH abruptly canceled funding for the project, which specifically worked to understand the risk of bat coronaviruses jumping to humans and causing devastating disease.

Fauci responded to Veasey saying: “It was cancelled because the NIH was told to cancel it.”

“And why were they told to cancel it?” Veasey pressed.

“I don’t know the reason, but we were told to cancel it,” Fauci said.

After the hearing, Fauci clarified to Politico that it was the White House that told the NIH to cancel the funding.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/23/fauci-nih-white-house-bat-study-336452


The involvement of the White House is a new wrinkle in a story that has appalled and angered scientists. Since the grant was nixed in late April, scientists had speculated that politics and a conspiracy theory played a role in canceling funding for the research, which was in good scientific standing and seen as critical work. The grant, titled “Understanding the risk of bat coronavirus emergence,” was originally funded by the NIH in 2014 and renewed for another five years in 2019 after receiving an outstanding peer-review score.

The research is run by EcoHealth Alliance Inc., a nonprofit based in New York, but it collaborates with a virologist at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) in China, who works with bat coronaviruses. The WIV became the center of a conspiracy theory that suggested that the pandemic coronavirus originated in or escaped from a lab at the institute.

On April 17, a reporter brought up that conspiracy theory and EcoHealth’s grant to President Trump during a press conference. The reporter asked “Why would the US give a grant like that to China?” Trump responded that “We will end that grant very quickly.”

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-vice-president-pence-members-coronavirus-task-force-press-briefing-april-17-2020/

Conspiracy Debunked: https://www.poynter.org/ifcn-covid-19-misinformation/?search_terms=lab

In an email to EcoHealth on April 19—two days later—Dr. Michael Lauer, NIH deputy director for Extramural Research, reportedly wrote:

... The scientific community believes that the coronavirus causing COVID-19 jumped from bats to humans likely in Wuhan where the COVID-19 pandemic began. There are now allegations that the current crisis was precipitated by the release from Wuhan Institute of Virology of the coronavirus responsible for COVID-19. Given these concerns, we are pursuing suspension of Wuhan Institute of Virology from participation in federal programs.

The funding was terminated on April 24. In a termination letter to EcoHealth, the NIH wrote that “At this time, NIH does not believe that the current project outcomes align with the program goals and agency priorities.”

Following Dr. Fauci’s revelations Tuesday, EcoHealth President Peter Daszak tweeted that it was an “obvious case of political interference.”

“Eventually, we’ll all know the shoddy truth of how a conspiracy theory pushed by this administration led @NIHDirector to block the only US research group still working in China to analyze COVID origins,” he wrote. “Thanks to this China can now do the research, we can’t!”

Scientists, meanwhile, have roundly refuted claims that the WIV was the source of the new coronavirus, noting that natural spillover from animals is the most likely source.

In an April 18 comment to ScienceInsider, the WIV virologist working with EcoHealth— Shi Zhengli—also disputed the link, saying that “the closest progenitor of COVID-19 virus is still mysterious and it’s definitely not from my lab or any other labs... It’s a shame to make the science so complicated.”

Scientists also continue to express dismay at the apparent political interference. The American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) released a statement Wednesday saying that such orders to cancel funding “will undermine the integrity of science funding and public trust. We urge Congress to use its oversight authority to ensure that the integrity of government science agencies is not compromised.”

[blumenkraft]

COVID-19 TREATMENT AND VACCINE TRACKER

Link >> https://milken-institute-covid-19-tracker.webflow.io/

[pietkuip]

The site Newsworthy and European Data Journalism made maps and graphs of excess mortality:
https://www.newsworthy.se/en/corona-excess-deaths/

These are the data for Sweden: https://www.newsworthy.se/en/dashboard/newslead/49888/

It is interesting that the county of Dalarna started early. It was reported yesterday that they already had a case as early as December. Someone who had not traveled anywhere.

Statistics is a bit dubious, for example when I look at my own county of Kronoberg. Or the very small numbers on Gotland, the only region that was declared safe to travel to by Norway.
 

[Pmt111500]

Looks like summer will not kill this virus like one president of the US said early in the epidemic. Maybe he didn't straightforwardly lie, but just didn't know it. It's a mark of a good leader to calm people down when they have to face the unknown. On the other hand, it looks like the people of US are more susceptible than EU citizens to get this virus and die from it. It's a good thing to know, maybe the president of the US was just unlucky to have such citizens. (/Sarc)

[gerontocrat]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries gives a slightly different result for the USA.

It shows the 7 day trailing average of daily new cases at a new record of 32.4k.

The 7 day trailing average of daily deaths still unchanged, but with hospitalisations increasing and miracles in short supply, it is only a matter of time before that graph heads up.
______________________________________________________
ps:- One of the hottest new spots is Texas - being where Musk may well move the Tesla operation lock stock & barrel because California was too insistent on maintaining the lockdown.

[vox_mundi]

U.S. Hits Highest Single Day of New Coronavirus Cases With More Than 45,500, Breaking April Record
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/24/us-hits-highest-single-day-of-coronavirus-cases-at-36358-breaking-april-record.html

Wednesday's cases top the previous highest daily count from April 26 — during the first peak of the pandemic in the U.S. — by more than 9,000 cases, according to NBC News' tracking data. The World Health Organization reported its single-day record on Sunday, with more than 183,000 new cases worldwide.

... Unfortunately, as many states struggle to contain the virus after having prematurely loosened restrictions, hospitals are becoming overwhelmed by patients. ... Only 12 percent of Arizona's ICU beds are available, the state health department reported Tuesday.

https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/covid-19/dashboards/index.php

Nearly 48% of all positive cases have been among people between the ages of 22-44, the WSJ reported.

Emergency rooms in the AZ are seeing about 1,200 suspected COVID-19 patients a day, compared with around 500 a month ago, the AP reported.

Graphs at link: https://mobile.twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1275917243063255040


So much winning. A sharpie isn’t going to fix this problem.

-----------------------------------

Here Are the 8 States That Trigger Coronavirus Quarantines for Travelers Going to New York
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/06/24/here-are-the-8-states-that-trigger-coronavirus-quarantines-for-travelers-going-to-new-york.html



... In Texas, if the current case trajectory continues, Houston could be the hardest-hit city in the US with numbers rivaling those in Brazil. Infection numbers are also rising in Dallas, Austin and San Antonio, said Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at the Baylor College of Medicine.

Models show that Houston could have a four-fold increase in the number of daily cases by July 4, he said, adding that states need to act to stop community transmission.

"That is really worrisome and as those numbers rise, we're seeing commensurate increases in the number of hospitalizations and ICU admissions," he said. "You get to the point where you overwhelm ICUs and that's when the mortality goes up."

... Arizona has added about 2,700 new cases per day over the seven days that ended Tuesday. Adjusted for population, that's about 38 new cases per 100,000 people per day.

... "Going out in public without a mask is like driving drunk," said Dr. Jonathan Reiner, a cardiologist and professor of medicine at George Washington University. "If you don't get hurt. You might kill somebody else."

At least 33 states are seeing a rise in cases compared to the previous week, data from Johns Hopkins University show. Those states are Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas, Utah, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin and Wyoming.

------------------------------------

The Coronavirus Surge is Real, and It's Everywhere
https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-surge-map-7714f8d1-5ba1-46f8-9bf3-5d59938f2c95.html

The coronavirus pandemic is getting dramatically worse in almost every corner of the U.S.

The big picture: The U.S. today is getting closer to the worst-case scenario envisioned in the spring — a nationwide crisis, made worse by a vacuum of political leadership, threatening to overwhelm hospitals and spread out of control.

- Nationwide, cases are up 30% compared to the beginning of this month, and dramatically worsening outbreaks in several states are beginning to strain hospital capacity — the same concern that prompted the nationwide lockdown in the first place.

- This is the grimmest map in the eight weeks since Axios began tracking the change in new cases in every state.

By the numbers: Over half the country — 26 states — have seen their coronavirus caseloads increase over the past week.

- New cases are up 77% in Arizona, 75% in Michigan, 70% in Texas and 66% in Florida.

- California, which has seen steady increases for weeks, recorded a 47% jump in new infections over the past week.

- These steep increases come after weeks of steadily climbing cases or back-and-forth results across the South, Midwest and West Coast. Only the New York region and parts of New England — the earliest hotspots — have consistently managed to get their caseloads down throughout May and June.

[etienne]

The Covid19 flu is also coming back in Europe.

I think what might make the difference is air conditioned. Most houses don't have it, at least in Luxembourg, north of France, Belgium... so people stay much more outside these days.

[gandul]

Depending on the day, sometimes I think the US is so advanced, then other days I find it so backwards in just about everything except maximizing capital for a minority.

Man I do feel good not living there anymore.

[vox_mundi]

100 Percent of Regular ICU Beds In Texas Medical Center Occupied
https://www.khou.com/amp/article/news/health/coronavirus/houston-hospitals-ceo-provide-update-on-bed-capacity-amid-surge-in-covid-19-cases/285-a5178aa2-a710-49db-a107-1fd36cdf4cf3


https://www.tmc.edu/coronavirus-updates/tmc-icu-bed-capacity-modeling/

https://mobile.twitter.com/zachdespart/status/1276190327808962562

Zach Despart
@zachdespart @TXMedCenter has officially reached 100% base ICU capacity as COVID cases in #Houston continue to surge.
Key numbers:
- 373 long-term surge ICU beds available
- 504 short-term " "
- Harris County has 4.7 million residents

... Gov. Abbott has just issued an executive order banning elective surgeries at hospitals in Dallas, Bexar, Harris & Travis counties. The order is meant to prevent a hospital bed shortage



A little over a quarter of the ICU beds are taken by COVID-19 patents, and hospitals are converting regular rooms to critical care.

Hospitals in Houston's Medical Center will now move some ICU patients to beds not normally used for critical care.

(... we can always put cots in the hallways and restrooms - at $10,000/day)

Twenty-eight percent of the ICU patients are being treated for COVID-19

LBJ'S ICU capacity was at 120 percent while Ben Taub's was at 88 percent.

Meanwhile, UMMC said it's at 85 percent capacity for its COVID-19 unit. This comes after the hospital added 12 beds to their unit.

--------------------------------

Despite reaching surge capacity, four hospital CEOs said Thursday there's no cause for "unwarranted alarm."

Those same CEOs signed a letter to Houstonians Wednesday warning, "If this trend continues, our hospital system capacity will become overwhelmed."

The average ICU occupancy rate at the world's largest medical center is 70 to 80 percent, but higher rates aren't unheard of.

... Following reports that TMC had reached 97 percent capacity, Dr. Marc Boom, Houston Methodist president and CEO, said ICU capacity percentages in the 80s or 90s is "completely normal."

Dr. Doug Lawson, St. Luke’s Health CEO, said hospitals are actively planning for anticipated increases over the coming months, which includes bringing in contract nurses and clinicians from other parts of the country to help with surges and doubling critical care capacity.



(... What do you do when those 'other parts of the country' are also surging at the same time and nurses are not available?

This was the same problem 3 months ago. Everybody needed masks, PPE, and ventilators at the same time and no one had a plan. Trump is to busy going to rallies or playing golf to give a shit.)

[vox_mundi]

Young, But Vulnerable to COVID-19
https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-06-young-vulnerable-covid-.html


Chronic diseases are more common at working-age in the Global South. The proportion of people with cardiovascular diseases in their early 20s is for example more than two times higher in Brazil and Nigeria compared to Italy.

Although populations in countries in the Global South are on average younger than in Europe, they might be more vulnerable to severe forms of COVID-19. One reason for this is the higher proportion of people at working age with pre-existing chronic conditions.

At almost every age within this population group, more people in Brazil and Nigeria suffer from pre-existing chronic conditions than in European countries, such as Italy. This increases their risk of a severe case of COVID-19. "We show that the prevalence of cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and chronic kidney disease in Brazil and Nigeria is considerably higher relative to Italy," said Marília Nepomuceno. The researcher at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research in Rostock, Germany, used data from the Global Burden of Disease Database for her analysis.

The results show that the proportion of people with cardiovascular diseases in their early 20s is more than two times higher in Brazil and Nigeria compared to Italy. For chronic kidney disease and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, the prevalence in Brazil and Nigeria is also considerably greater relative to Italy. It is particularly higher for people over the age of 40. Among women, for instance, differences in prevalence can be up to four times higher in Nigeria than in Italy. These health disadvantages, which are common in the Global South, suggest that their working-age populations are far more vulnerable to severe forms of COVID-19 disease than that of Europe.

Marília Nepomuceno and her colleagues argue that vulnerability to COVID-19 depends not only on age and sex, but also strongly depends on other factors, including health conditions, access to healthcare services, hygienic and sanitary conditions, and economic disparities. The precarious state of these factors in countries in the Global South may result in higher health risks from COVID-19. This counteracts the relative advantage of their younger populations. Country-specific measures that account for the epidemiological, social, and economic contexts are needed to better understand the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic across the globe.

Marília R. Nepomuceno et al. Besides population age structure, health and other demographic factors can contribute to understanding the COVID-19 burden, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2020).
https://www.pnas.org/content/117/25/13881

------------------------------------

CDC MMWR: COVID-19 Outbreak Among College Students After a Spring Break Trip to Mexico - Austin, Texas
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6926e1.htm

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 during and after a college spring break trip (March 14–19) led to 64 cases, including 60 among 183 vacation travelers, one among 13 household contacts, and three among 35 community contacts. Prompt epidemiologic investigation, with effective contact tracing and cooperation between a university and a public health department, contributed to outbreak control.

------------------------------------------

CDC: Here’s the Latest On Who Gets the Sickest From COVID-19
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/younger-people-not-immune-from-severe-covid-19-new-cdc-guidance-suggests/

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday updated and expanded its list of who is at risk of developing severe illness from COVID-19—emphasizing that it’s not just the elderly who suffer from the disease.

... Now, the agency emphasizes that there is a gradient of risk based on age. In other words, there is some risk at any age, but that risk increases with age. A 50-year-old will have more risk than a 40-year-old, and a 60-year-old is at higher risk than someone in their 50s. The greatest risk is seen in those aged 85 and over.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/older-adults.html

In addition to age, having certain underlying health conditions has also been a clear factor that increases risk of severe illness. From the outset of the pandemic, public health experts have focused on those with cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic respiratory disease, and obesity.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-with-medical-conditions.html

In the updated guidance, the CDC refined and expanded the list of health conditions that lead to high risk based on the latest data. The list now stands at:

- Chronic kidney disease
- COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease)
- Obesity (BMI of 30 or higher)
- Immunocompromised state (weakened immune system) from solid organ transplant
- Serious heart conditions, such as heart failure, coronary artery disease, or cardiomyopathies
- Sickle cell disease
- Type 2 diabetes

“These changes increase the number of people who fall into higher risk groups,” the CDC noted in its announcement of the updated guidance.

And people who have multiple conditions on the list have even higher risks—the more conditions, the more risk.

Last, the agency clarified conditions that might increase a person’s risk for developing severe COVID-19. Those conditions include: asthma, high blood pressure, smoking, Type 1 diabetes, liver disease, pregnancy, cystic fibrosis, neurologic conditions such as dementia, and cerebrovascular diseases such as stroke.

[blumenkraft]

Are airplanes safe?

500 Delta airline staff test positive for coronavirus, 10 dead

Link >> https://www.newsweek.com/500-delta-airline-staff-test-positive-coronavirus-10-dead-1513016

[vox_mundi]

Record Spikes In U.S. Coronavirus Cases Push Up Hospitalization Rates In 16 States
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/record-spikes-in-us-coronavirus-cases-push-up-hospitalization-rates-in-16-states.html



The U.S. added more than 34,400 coronavirus cases on Wednesday, according to a CNBC analysis of Johns Hopkins University data, after health officials in California, Florida and Texas all reported record-high single-day spikes.

As of Wednesday, the nation’s seven-day average of daily new Covid-19 cases was 31,172. This number has increased more than 34% compared with a week ago, according to the analysis.

Twelve states hit record highs in daily new cases, which include Arizona, Arkansas, California and Florida. Coronavirus hospitalizations are also rising in 16 states, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by the Covid Tracking Project.

---------------------------------

Florida Governor Says State Has No Plan of Continuing Its Reopening



When asked about Florida’s reopening, Gov. Ron DeSantis said that the state doesn’t have plans for continuing its step-by-step plan. He added that the state “never anticipated” to continue moving forward at this point

“We are where we are. I didn’t say we were going to go on to the next phase,” DeSantis said at a news briefing. His comments come shortly after Texas Gov. Greg Abbott announced he would pause reopening plans for his state as coronavirus cases and hospitalizations continue to climb.

Florida is averaging about 3,756 daily new cases as of Wednesday, which is about a 71% increase since one week ago, according to a CNBC analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University.

9 days ago: DeSantis: Florida is 'not rolling back' reopening plans despite increase in cases
https://www.bizjournals.com/southflorida/news/2020/06/17/desantis-florida-not-rolling-back-reopenings.html

[Archimid]

I know the US gets a bad reputation, and honestly, it is well earned. As a superpower, the US has done some horrible things.

But the US has also done wonderful things. One of those things was top of the line health care. No, I'm not saying the US invented modern medicine, but until a few years ago the US was the clear world leader in health, at least from a technology point of view.

The technology is there still. Greatness is still achievable.  But the leaders are blind.

Florida Governor Says State Has No Plan of Continuing Its Reopening

Dumb. Their plan should be to roll back any behavior they can pinpoint that produces a high number of outbreaks. Surely they are contact tracing...

[Sarcasm]
or maybe they just gonna let the hospitals fill and then let the surge capacity fill and then let the field hospitals fill. Only weak people that require medical services will notice. Otherwise, the economy will thrive. [/Sarcasm]

[Neven]

This one will probably fly under Vox Mundi's radar, or maybe it will be all over the news tomorrow. 

From Der Standard (Google translation):
 

42.4 percent of the residents of Ischgl have antibodies against coronavirus
At the end of April, almost 1,500 people were tested in the Tyrolean winter sports resort. Now we have the results

June 25, 2020, 9:17 pm

42.4 percent of Ischglers have antibodies against Sars-CoV-2.

Innsbruck - 42.4 percent of the residents of the Tyrolean winter sports resort Ischgl have already developed antibodies against Sars-CoV-2. This is the result of an investigation by the Institute of Virology at the Medical University of Innsbruck, which was presented on Thursday. The proportion of people who tested positive for antibodies is thus about six times higher than the number of people who tested positive by means of a PCR test, explained study director Dorothee van Laer. That was the highest value that has been measured so far, it said at the presentation of the study.

Virologist Dorothee van Laer provides information about the study design and the Sars-CoV-2 antibody tests in the Tyrolean community of Ischgl, which were carried out at the end of April.
Medical University Innsbruck
At the end of April, 1,473 people, i.e. 79 percent of the entire Ischgl population, were tested on a voluntary basis for the study. 214 people were children. According to the results, only 27 percent of those under the age of 18 have antibodies.

So, Ischgl is where allegedly a lot of the virus was picked up by tourists and spread all over Europe.

Maybe you can help with the following calculation, cause I must be doing something wrong: 1473 people were tested, which is 79% of the Ischgl population. This means that total population is 1865. It is said that 42.4% of the population has been infected with SARS-CoV-2, which translates to 791 persons. In total two persons are said to have died of COVID-19. According to my calculation, this means that the IFR for Ischgl is 0.0025%. Is that correct? (nope, see edit4).

Strangely enough, none of this was discussed on the Austrian TV news this evening. They did open with it, but where normally a report is followed by a short interview with an editor or expert, for further explanation and context, there was none this evening. Of course, there was no archival footage either of Austrian soldiers digging mass graves, or some such, either.

In all the online articles I have read so far no mention has been made of the Ischgl IFR either. The numbers are reported, and also that 85% of infected didn't have any symptoms, and that a lower percentage of children had antibodies. But what is stressed most of all, is that this doesn't mean there is herd immunity, and that it isn't known yet whether people can get reinfected.

I find this very strange, but then again, I am convinced that SARS-CoV-2 is comparable to influenza (epidemiologically speaking), and that the reaction to this crisis has been manufactured and manipulated to further all kinds of anti-democratic interests.

---

edit: I wrote this yesterday evening, but it didn't get posted. It's being picked up in the international media now, but so far, no one is delving into what the numbers may actually mean (and how that rhymes with the official narrative that hasn't changed much since day 1), except perhaps for this excerpt on Bloomberg: "Only nine adults in the entire sample received hospital treatment." Nothing about how many people allegeldy died from COVID-19 in Ischgl.

edit2: Maybe the reason IFR is so low in this subset is because of demographics, local conditions, general population health, even though we are not supposed to look at those things. But still, the difference is really huge large. Of course, the 85% asymptomatic number and fewer children infected are interesting as well.

edit3: My calculation must be wrong somehow.

edit4: God, I'm stupid. IFR is not 0.0025%, but 0.25%.

[Archimid]

https://www.citypopulation.de/php/austria-tirol.php?cityid=70608

See the age distribution in ischgl.

[Neven]

https://www.citypopulation.de/php/austria-tirol.php?cityid=70608

See the age distribution in ischgl.

It seems comparable to NYC, but maybe I'm doing something wrong again: https://www.citypopulation.de/en/usa/places/newyork/bronx_richmond_new_yo/3651000__new_york/

[blumenkraft]

no one is delving into what the numbers may actually mean

If this study is legit, other scientists will use these data as a piece of this giant jigsaw puzzle. Just as they always do. You do know how science works, Neven.

[oren]

With 0.25% apparent IFR (assuming no one died at home), it seems Ischgl got it lightly (even considering its young population), and is near to herd immunity in the process. In any case, the numbers are low, but not out of the ballpark.