Well Russia as a defender of free market capitalism, who'd a thunk it? Their costs are about $7pb but need a price around $20 for long term sustainability, S.A. costs are around $3pb but need about $85pb for their quota to sustain their luxury socialist welfare state, they simply don't have the capacity to cover these costs at lower prices, frackers need $50 to break even $60pb to meet debt obligations. At $20pb demand for dollars would crash, meanwhile reserves held in treasuries would have to be liquidated, what could go wrong?