The 2020 melting season

[glennbuck]

< Deleted, ice age speculations are banned. Sorry, not your fault. O>

[Pagophilus]

Extraordinary area of very thick smoke haze (ca 2000km x1200km) has developed over Eastern Siberia and the ESS over the past few days.  This haze is the result of what must be colossal fires in Central and Eastern Siberia (red dots on images, courtesy of Worldview's Fire and Thermal Anomalies layer).  The skies, the earth must look apocalyptic over much of this area.

The fire situation seems to be getting worse by the day, with a new major fire center developing in Central Siberia over the past 3 days, and with, to my eye, much more smoke being generated over the five day period shown on the gif.  I know it has been a very bad fire season in Siberia, but now it is looking even worse. 

Note that CO2 from these fires is thought to be more than compensating for reduced human CO2 emissions this year.  The effects on the ice I leave to experts, but they cannot be trivial at this scale.

The smoke seemed at first to go out over the ESS, and now seems more concentrated over Siberia.

To give an idea of the scale, a whole Arctic view is below the gif (dark areas are where Worldview data is not yet available for today.)

Warning: large gif.

[glennbuck]

<After bbr fed us with his (and others) ice age pet theory, it is banned now. O>

[Aluminium]

10-12 knots will push the ice into the Laptev Sea next days. Thin ice is nothing against overheated water.

[gregcharles]

Ah ok, my uncle talks about the Jet stream stopping and a mini ice age, whenever i talk to him about abrupt climate change. Did Professor James Hansen write something about the slowing of the Jet Stream?

There is a theory that (let's see if I can get this right) as ice melts and floods the northern seas with fresh water, it has the potential to slow down the Gulf Stream that flows from the Gulf of Mexico across the Atlantic. The Gulf Stream keeps Europe much warmer than it would be otherwise. (Note that Rome, Italy and Chicago, US are about the same latitude. Stopping the Gulf Stream thus could make Europe get colder.

There is another theory about the Jet Stream getting less stable due to ice melting in the arctic, which can make the polar vortex break down. That can lead to cold snaps in the temperate areas.

Note: I'm using "theory" in the scientific sense here, not in the denialist, "don't believe it, it's just a theory" sense.

<I'll keep this one but no more discussions of ice age theories, not on this thread and not elsewhere. O>

[kassy]

None of that relates to the melting season.

[ArcticMelt2]

Why is insolation just now coming forward? Due to heat transfer in Siberia?

[ajouis]

maybe due to continued area losses?

[be cause]

I'll be deleting this later .. please don't engage with bbr re future ice ages etc on the melt thread .. it has been rinsed and repeated for the last 8 years .. by now Canada should be under an ice sheet .. b.c.

 ps .. high risk of your posts being deleted too .

[gerontocrat]

Why is insolation just now coming forward? Due to heat transfer in Siberia?

Not sure what you are getting at. Insolation is one half of the calculation of the AWP anomalies in the graph. The other half is the different albedo of ice, (and snow-covered ice?) and open water .

The Maths is simple- as open water increases the Albedo Warming Potential (AWP) increases as the albedo of open water is lower than that of ice-covered seas. How much it increases depends on latitude and time of year, i.e. insolation. Rapid upward spikes in daily anomaly must mean rapid ice loss.

Clouds, or lack of clouds, heatwaves, ocean warmth, cyclones, ocean currents etc etc are are not part of the formula but surely must play a huge part in determining what actually happens to the ice, e.g. how much of that AWP is applied to the ocean surface.. Guess that's why they need ginormous computers to figure it out.

The daily anomaly graph is super to look at behaviour of individual seas day by day, but I reckon the cumulative anomaly is far more significant, and the key word is POTENTIAL.

Or am I "teaching my grandmother to suck eggs" (I wonder where that saying comes from).

[bbr2315]

And just like that the Beaufort Sea escapes disaster.

Trying something new that Blum thought me and will save server space on ASIF.

Edit: It's autoloading now... 
So I don't think this is a good solution for those with a data limit.

GFS is not as robust, now we await 12z EURO... if CMC verifies it is an almost 70MB gradient stretching the entire Arctic, with a coupled GAC // GAAC that would be EVEN WORSE than solo GAAC , IMO.

[S.Pansa]

Models seem to have a hard time to decide, how strong the Beaufort storm will be.

The latest two GFS runs (06z & 12z) have the low up to ~990; the GEM model was first with this idea in its 00z run from today.

But the latest GEM/CMC run (12z) has the low back down to 962 on  hour 90 (July 28 2020). 

Will be interesting to see what the next ECMWF run comes up with & what the weather experts of the forum think about this.

Edit: ECMWF 12z is in: by fare not as ambitious as the GEM ... a bit stronger as the GFS

[gandul]

<All removed, thanks. O>

[gandul]

Models seem to have a hard time to decide, how strong the Beaufort storm will be.

The latest two GFS runs (06z & 12z) have the low up to ~990; the GEM model was first with this idea in its 00z run from today.

But the latest GEM/CMC run (12z) has the low back down to 962 on  hour 90 (July 28 2020). 

Will be interesting to see what the next ECMWF run comes up with & what the weather experts of the forum think about this.

There is only one, maybe two real experts, but my opinion if that the Beaufort is gone, even with the prior EC run that was softer.

[Sublime_Rime]

The Irminger current historically used to turn south below Greenland and dip around Greenland before merging with the Labrador and heading south.
As pictured. Last ten years Its been turning south further north near Svalbard. Now last year, and even more this it has decided to go over the top of Greenland, and this year, not even satisfied by colonising the CAA, and Aided by the Beaufort clockwise gyre being closer to Mckenzie Bay,  it has stopped the Alaskan coastal current, heading east from Bering,  or at least pushed it under to flood the central Beaufort.

Such a shift in a warm water current would be a pretty terrifying acceleration in Atlantification if verified. How has the shifts in this current been tracked over the period you mention? Would this be the major driving factor behind the crack north of Greenland and the CAA?

As others on here have mentioned the huge export from north of CAA to Beaufort, I've pinned that mostly to the prolonged anti-cyclone. This shift in current seems more covert, so I'm curious as to how its location has been confirmed.

[Frivolousz21]

The ATLANTIC  SIDE is is going to melt out to the POLE.

the euro is straight nuts with UNBELIEVABLE  HEAT.  MORE DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN CAB TO THE POLE.

ALSO JUST NARLY HEAT FROM THE POLE TO THE ATLANTIC ICE EDGE.

EXPECT THOSE AREAS OF OPEN WATER  BETWEEN THE CRIPPLED FLOES TO DRAMATICALLY  EXPAND.



Also don't expect much of a bad storm.

There isn't much amplification in the jet, very little vorticity, the boundary layer temp gradient is weak.

It's just not cold anywhere.

BBR & myself agree that below 2.5 million is on thess table

Also below 3750km3 or lower for volume on cryosat/icesat 2 is very plausible. 


Click to ANIMATE

[Frivolousz21]

Guys the Canadian weather model is a joke for arctic weather.

Please don't use it.

It has impossibly deep vortexes and record breaking high pressure systems in the arctic year round.

Please  consider what I am saying.

Every August it usually has 1-2 945-950mb systems.

IIRC last year or the year before it had a 938mb forecasted cyclone in August like 5 days out that ended up 992mb

[bbr2315]

The ATLANTIC  SIDE is is going to melt out to the POLE.

the euro is straight nuts with UNBELIEVABLE  HEAT.  MORE DOWNSLOPE WINDS FOR THE SOUTHERN CAB TO THE POLE.

ALSO JUST NARLY HEAT FROM THE POLE TO THE ATLANTIC ICE EDGE.

EXPECT THOSE AREAS OF OPEN WATER  BETWEEN THE CRIPPLED FLOES TO DRAMATICALLY  EXPAND.



Also don't expect much of a bad storm.

There isn't much amplification in the jet, very little vorticity, the boundary layer temp gradient is weak.

It's just not cold anywhere.

BBR & myself agree that below 2.5 million is on thess table

Also below 3750km3 or lower for volume on cryosat/icesat 2 is very plausible. 


Click to ANIMATE

The EURO forecasts snowfalls in the Mackenzie Ranges and highest Rockies, as well as some of the mountains in Kamchatka / adjacent to Chukchi. If there is to be a GAC I do believe it will initiate after the deposition of snowfall in these regions / enhancement of the thermal gradient w blue waters of the Arctic. Like you said, otherwise, it is just warm everywhere.

It is actually quite notable that the EURO shows almost no snowfall over the Arctic. Normally snows would be beginning over the ATL sector about now. As Friv states, I believe the 12z EURO forecast is a death knell for the ice on the ATL front, perhaps all the way to Lomonosov Ridge.

[be cause]

.. and 1080 +highs over G'land .. . With gfs we have had 4 977mb lows forecast this month none of which have come near being realized .
  But the weather is not good for ice , storm or no storm . Look at the latest wv images .. the Atlantic side of the pole has updated again in the last few hours .. less cloud near the pole and lots of disintergration to be seen North of 89' (90E) ..
          https://go.nasa.gov/3hCiOBN   .. b.c.

[glennbuck]

Guys the Canadian weather model is a joke for arctic weather.

Please don't use it.

It has impossibly deep vortexes and record breaking high pressure systems in the arctic year round.

Please  consider what I am saying.

Every August it usually has 1-2 945-950mb systems.

IIRC last year or the year before it had a 938mb forecasted cyclone in August like 5 days out that ended up 992mb

I think to be fair there all getting bad at predicting the weather as it is so unpredictable nowadays, more than a few days out weird weather appears and they change the forecasts.with the climate crisis, i think weather is becoming very strange last few years especially.

[Frivolousz21]

I agree that every model has its drawbacks.

But believe me when I tell you that the Canadian model is by far the worst out of the big global's.


Those 4-977mb forecasts are at least realistic.

The Canadian and its 962mb forecast is straight ABSURDITY!!!

[Pagophilus]

Why is insolation just now coming forward? Due to heat transfer in Siberia?

I agree with ajouis and gerontocrat.  The insolation value is probably a set value for each day determined by calculation in advance.  Albedo will change in this model depending on factors like the amount of open water vs the amount of ice. 

At record low area values for the ice, then the albedo warming potential will be high, as ajouis implies.  I think it is an albedo potential, because it gives us a sense of how much energy could be absorbed, relative to other years, if the skies were clear.  It is not indicating the ice will melt more, but given clear weather, it could melt more. 

However, I did not build this model (and could not build this model) so I am happy to be corrected...

[be cause]

the Anticyclonic weather is easier to forecast .. and many forecasts were good a week and more later until the GAAC faded . Now it's all change and 'unpredictable' beyond 3 days , some accuracy to 5 days then it's 'your guess is as good as mine' territory . This is as always .. as A-team said .. the next 3 days is enough to be getting on with .. and analysing what has happened to the ice , rather than what may .. .. I agree with Friv re the Canada model .. it would be my last port of call
 .. b.c.

[FishOutofWater]

Did someone mention vorticity? The expanded jet stream we have seen the last 2 summers following the intense end warmings of the winter stratospheric polar vortex has very effectively exported cold air out of the polar regions and imported warm air from the hot continents. In the summer of 2013 we saw very pulled back jet stream which locked in over the Arctic ocean shoreline keeping the central Arctic cold.

This melting season is built on top of stored heat from the very warm conditions last summer. The apparently benign end to last year's melting season resulted in less heat extraction from the Beaufort and Chukchi sea region than in a year with lots of action like 2012.

Note that potential vorticity animations always have strung out fields, but this summer the PV fields are very strung out. I think that this animation gives a good example of an aspect of how Arctic amplification is working by wave energy rapidly transferring heat to the polar regions.

I agree with Friv that the Atlantification is strong this summer and the latest ECMWF run looks bad for the ice especially on the Atlantic side. One of the worst aspects of strong downslope winds off of Greenland is the way the Coriolis effect will extend the flow of waters from the west Greenland current up the right hand side of the Nares strait, then up the NW shore of Greenland.

Animation of 12Z GFS forecast PV and past 72 hours courtesy of Levi Cowan at Tropical Tidbits.

Please click to animate.

[glennbuck]

Every latitude band observed above average temperatures in June 2020. That is 2 Celsius above average for the Arctic in June, must of added to the melt season, i wonder what Temperatures last year and the past have had above average for June in the Arctic.

[Paul]

I do think we got to be careful when looking at model runs and take them as gospel. I don't think the trends have change, it is still mainly high pressure on the Atlantic side of the basin and low pressure over the Beaufort sea but of course each run will change the variation of the theme therefore as usual the longer term forecast can vary massively from one run to another.

In all honesty, in most years, the forecast looks fairly uneventful for the sea ice but this year... Godness knows. The Beaufort ice is getting more diffused by the day and whilst it won't dissappear quickly that low could definately have more of an impact. The forecast favours ice spread, how will that leave the CAB ice if it happens? Compaction is one thing but if the ice has been weakened significantly by top melt then large ice spread events is surely going to start leaving holes appearing in the CAB.

And there is the Atlantic/Laptev ice edge, just how close to the pole will it get. Looks like from my eyes the winds are not too strong attacking the Atlantic front but SSTS are warm, the air is warm and there is signs of diffused ice. You have to say the possibity of the ice edge reaching the pole is most definately there.

[Frivolousz21]

Resolute, NU has tied the record high for this day at 14.3C+.  With a steady SSE to SE wind of 8-12kts.

Yesterday tied the record high of 15C.

Tomorrows record is 14.7C

The forecast high is 20C.

So the record is going to get demolished.

Like the CAA ice

[glennbuck]

Resolute, NU has tied the record high for this day at 14.3C+.  With a steady SSE to SE wind of 8-12kts.

Yesterday tied the record high of 15C.

Tomorrows record is 14.7C

The forecast high is 20C.

So the record is going to get demolished.

Like the CAA ice

  interesting just as 2012 took biggest drop of 225.000  km ^2 on 25th of July i think, could be some big drops soon over next few days then? Is the 225,000  km ^2 drop in 2012 the largest on record and 200,000 km^2, 2020 drop the second highest in a day?

[Frivolousz21]

Resolute, NU has tied the record high for this day at 14.3C+.  With a steady SSE to SE wind of 8-12kts.

Yesterday tied the record high of 15C.

Tomorrows record is 14.7C

The forecast high is 20C.

So the record is going to get demolished.

Like the CAA ice

  interesting just as 2012 took biggest drop of 225.000  km ^2 on 25th of July i think, could be some big drops soon over next few days then? Is the 225,000  km ^2 drop in 2012 the largest on record and 200,000 km^2, 2020 drop the second highest in a day?

Thats really unlikely.  In fact the next few days will probably see the smallest drops we have seen in a long time.

While the CAA is getting crushed it's a small area of ice.

It's just a Battleground region because until 2007 it never melted out.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

While the size of upward heat sink to the space is infinite, there is also the downward heat sink into the permafrost soils, aquifers, bed rocks, sea water, and sea beds which is finite due to endogenic heating. The cold dump to downward sink is now diminishing from its top towards bottom as surface heat meets increasingly endogenic heat at equilibrium surface point: In Finland bedrock temperature measurements show bedrocks having warmed 1.5C as much as 700 metres down.

In addition to the build-up heat in the underworld, the melted permafrost also has started to decompose and release heat - even under snow cover - further reducing the available heat sinks when the next spring arrives with evermore violent spring floods. Cold grounds shield snow against short heat waves. This earth system protection is increasingly lost leading to floods and then forest fires as soils dry earlier as water drains away (or has drained away previous permafrost melting years).

The warmed up soils was the reason for the collapse of Maurice Ewing - William Donn accumulative lake-snow model of the Arctic Ocean at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory in Palisades, New York. As sea ice melts and sea water warms, the effect of larger snowfalls as coolant come to naught as the soils under the snow cover warm up too making snow that sits on warmer soils ever more volatile.

Do these make any sense to you as contributing explanations in addition to this springs heat wave, reduction of aerosol load, & high amount of insolation: the ticking atomic bombs get under our feet.

Yes, that's the horrific one. Maybe the proper scientists attribute this to some specific element of the climate system. Laptev has had methane seeping out now for couple of years, this year Western Siberia has been very warm (hot even) , there are no contrails due CoViD-19 to block the sun, permafrost melting has been increasing rather steadily... Plenty of factors all seem to coverge this year on Laptev Sea.

[Frivolousz21]

Resolute, NU has tied the record high for this day at 14.3C+.  With a steady SSE to SE wind of 8-12kts.

Yesterday tied the record high of 15C.

Tomorrows record is 14.7C

The forecast high is 20C.

So the record is going to get demolished.

Like the CAA ice

  interesting just as 2012 took biggest drop of 225.000  km ^2 on 25th of July i think, could be some big drops soon over next few days then? Is the 225,000  km ^2 drop in 2012 the largest on record and 200,000 km^2, 2020 drop the second highest in a day?

Honestly? 

<Newbie. O>

[Frivolousz21]

The warmth currently INVADING the CAB and CAA is nuts.

Look at tomorrow's forecast during peak heating.

Incredible downslope into the Southern CAB.

THE KEY TO THIS SEASON IS THE WEATHER.

BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY IS THE LOWERED ALBEDO AND HOW IT EARLY ON ALLOWED WIDESPREAD  LOW LEVEL WARMTH TO BUILD AND REINFORCE THE LOW ALBEDO.

NOW WE'RE IN THE HOME STRETCH WITH 700-850K MORE KM2 OF OPEN  WATER ALBEDO OF 0.7% THAN THE CLOSEST YEARS. 

On top of the  super  low albedo all over.

I AM VERY CONFIDENT THAT this summer we are going to see unprecedented open water in the CAB.

Record  low volume, extent, and area...

The only question I have is how low will it go??

[pccp82]

Honestly? 

Troll post or total newbie???

i scroll right past his posts. feels like a complete troll. someone brand new and posting a ton? red flag.

either way, nothing of value is lost by ignoring.

i have 23 posts in 5 years. he has 41 posts in fewer than 5 days.

<NOT a troll. Wild-eyed newbie. O>

[Frivolousz21]

Holy shit everyone!!!


Please excuse my language...

These sst are unbelievable and then you think about the forecast coming up or the Atlantic and Russian side holy crap.

By August 3-6th... the amount of heat that we are going to see and around the Arctic on the Atlantic and Russian side in the water is going to be just unfathomable.

And this is just a ice discussion imagine how bad this must be on the methane clathrates.

[be cause]

Honestly? 

someone brand new and posting a ton? red flag. I have 23 posts in 5 years. he has 41 posts in fewer than 5 days.

another phoenix rises from the ashes ..

<Please give some slack. Newbie. Will make sure to educate. O>

[Frivolousz21]

Concentration on the Pacific side continues to plummet.

Here is my current prediction for the sea ice min.

I'd love to see everyone's thoughts.

[wdmn]

Two glimpses through the clouds today from RAMMB CIRA confirm the concentration map from Bremen.

First photo of the Beaufort. For orientation, Alaska is at the bottom of the image.
Second photo is of the Atlantic side. Islands in the photo are Franz Josef Land.

N.B. any tips on better bands to use would be welcome via private message or in this thread if it's appropriate.

EDIT: very small (almost nil) loss in JAXA extent today.

[Frivolousz21]

Two glimpses through the clouds today from RAMMB CIRA confirm the concentration map from Bremen.

First photo of the Beaufort. For orientation, Alaska is at the bottom of the image.
Second photo is of the Atlantic side. Islands in the photo are Franz Josef Land.

N.B. any tips on better bands to use would be welcome via private message or in this thread if it's appropriate.

EDIT: very small (almost nil) loss in JAXA extent today.

Thank You for the image and the proper giggle.

[wdmn]

Two glimpses through the clouds today from RAMMB CIRA confirm the concentration map from Bremen.

First photo of the Beaufort. For orientation, Alaska is at the bottom of the image.
Second photo is of the Atlantic side. Islands in the photo are Franz Josef Land.

N.B. any tips on better bands to use would be welcome via private message or in this thread if it's appropriate.

EDIT: very small (almost nil) loss in JAXA extent today.

Thank You for the image and the proper giggle.

  LOL! I honestly don't know how that happened. The ASIF gods are messing with me... with us all!

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 24^th, 2020:
     6,042,112 km², a small drop of -5,029 km².
     Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent

It seems that the small drop means that we are losing compactness. It is not good news. Ice can come into contact with warm water. At the end, more melt will happen.
Image: https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2/today/Arctic_AMSR2_nic.png

[bbr2315]

T-78 hrs... wow @ 00z GOOFUS...

[Juan C. García]

And a small cyclone that brings heat and winds to Beaufort, in 3 days.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#2020/07/28/0300Z/wind/isobaric/850hPa/overlay=temp/orthographic=-177.08,69.89,601/loc=-127.316,80.338

[jdallen]

Resolute, NU has tied the record high for this day at 14.3C+.  With a steady SSE to SE wind of 8-12kts.

Yesterday tied the record high of 15C.

Tomorrows record is 14.7C

The forecast high is 20C.

So the record is going to get demolished.

Like the CAA ice

20c?!  RESOLUTE!?!?!?

(Edit:  OK, they *have* gotten that warm before... once.)

[jdallen]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 24^th, 2020:
     6,042,112 km², a small drop of -5,029 km².
     Source:

It seems that the small drop means that we are losing compactness. It is not good news. Ice can come into contact with warm water. At the end, more melt will happen.

Correct, I believe.  The small extent drop is NOT reassuring.

[miki]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

July 24^th, 2020:
     6,042,112 km², a small drop of -5,029 km².

I've got a bad feeling about this. Spreading ice is dead ice.

[Frivolousz21]

I CAN'T  FREAKING BELIEVE IT!!!!!!!

THE 00Z GOOOOFUS...OTHERWISE KNOWN AS THE GFS...

ABSOLUTELY DESTROYS THE BEAUFORT/FAR WESTERN CAB....I MEAN VERBATIM IF THIS RUN ACTUALLY HAPPENED WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT AMAZINGLY HUGE DROPS  IN AREA AND EXTENT.

THE IRONY IS THAT IN 2012 A SIMILAR SET UP NUKED THE SAME AREA.

Here is 144-268 h5 every 24 hours.

And 3 days of 850MB temps.

The wind  coming off NA hitting the Beaufort 11and Western CAB is Southerly with INSANE HEAT.

[Freegrass]

Latest Five Day Forecast
Wind + Temp @ Surface
Large GIF!

Things are really getting interesting now.
Just one question. If this is happening with "low vorticity" as Friv said, how big should we expect the storms to be later in the season? 

[Aluminium]

July 20-24.

2019.

[El Cid]

I have a simple and fast way of knowing how bad the actual weather (forecast) is for the ice. I simply count how many posts Friv does during the day

 

Based on this metric, the outlook is pretty bad

 

[El Cid]

Concentration on the Pacific side continues to plummet.

Here is my current prediction for the sea ice min.

I'd love to see everyone's thoughts.

I tried the same the other they by erasing the thinnest ice from HYCOM. My results are not dissimilar from yours. As others said it is cca 2,5 mln sq km. I think yours is smaller though I am not sure: