#2020 - the year new records became commonplace#
i see 4 events affecting the ice this year so far. some are records (Fram export), some are not (Nares arch breaking-up date).
the persistent great Fram export event. the persistent cyclone event. the persistent (albeit a small positive) nares event. the current persistent anticyclone event. the current persistent insolation event.
the keyword is persistent. read extreme melt.
Fram export- wind-aided export 40 strait days
Nares arch- cold winter temps caused no export until later than average
cyclone- it was brought to our attention a week before it began by a poster showing nullsoft data.
lasted about 15 strait days
anticyclone- ongoing: clearer than normal sky. how long wiil it continue?
insolation- ongoing: How long has the temp been above zero at the pole? 20 days?
the rules seem to have changed. in the past (excepting 2012), extreme events hurting the ice happened, but nowhere near in the durations, we have witnessed this year.
i'm afraid that this year will mark a new minimum. the perfect melt-storms have hit all in one year. i hate negativity, but as far as excessive melt/export is concerned, i am really bummed out.
the CAB (not just the Beaufort) is beginning to spin. another poster keeps us abreast of what she calls the ?crack?. the arrival date of the BOE is being accelerated i fear.
the weather has sucked
imo, the wind has been the big player this year and is getting stronger it seems.
the current insolation...who would have thought that a damn virus would have made the air so much clearer that insolation in actuality has been upped massively in it's ice killing effectiveness.
because i do hate negativity, i'm not even going to discuss the insidious bottom melt.
from a physics perspective. the wind has caused or assisted extreme melt/export. read turbulence causes increased heat transfer.
i have sat back and watched the posts made as requested. it's not fun, i'm horrified.
i want to list all the really cool contributors to this forum, but my typewriter ribbon isn't long enough.
ty oren. you have continued moderation par excellence (the great N must be thanked as moderator emiritus). flower man and uniqorn continue to amaze me with their animations. the time and effort that you all spend informing us non-scientists must be massive. you are world-class cryosphere posters and deserve worldwide recognition.
This has to be the most informative forum in the whole damn world for those of us concerned with our children's future.
that being said, I will make not only a prediction but a promise.
* I predict we will see a new record minimum this year.*
if I am wrong (it happens occasionally), if my view is squed like my spelling, it means I'm suffering from that syndrome that illustrates that one's opinion on their own smarts is overestimated and my opinions are f*****-up.
so I promise that I will discontinue posting my observations hereafter the minimum if there is not a record minimum.
i hope to see you on the other side.
ps I bought my house in 1983. it was built in '79 (the CAB was frozen year-round then). the original faucet in the kitchen had never dripped. it started dripping today. it reminded me that S*** happens with time, but the arctic concerns me more than my sink, hence i write this post instead of fixing the faucet.
pss Over the years, friv, you have been so enlightening.
td