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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1250 on: August 09, 2016, 07:26:08 AM »
In the linked article Scribbler provides another example of weird weather with "rain bombs" hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/08/09/hot-gulf-of-mexico-hurls-rain-bombs-at-florida-and-the-u-s-gulf-coast/

Extract: "Hot Gulf of Mexico Hurls Rain Bombs at Florida and the U.S. Gulf Coast"
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1251 on: August 10, 2016, 09:45:38 PM »
Fears of starvation, disease after deadly Sudan floods
Quote
People made homeless by widespread flooding in Sudan that has killed 76 people in recent days are facing serious food shortages and threats from disease, officials say.

The Nile river is at its highest levels in more than a century and 13 of the country’s 18 provinces had been affected by flash flooding, the country's Interior Minister Ismat Abdelrahman said on Thursday.

Heavy rains and flooding have completely destroyed 3,206 houses and damaged 3,048 others in the eastern province of Kassala, one of the worst hit areas, the interior ministry said.

According to the United Nations, the government estimates that more than 80,000 people have been affected by the flooding so far.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/08/sudan-floods-160805164516083.html
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1252 on: August 11, 2016, 06:05:34 PM »
Here is another example of extreme weather due to climate change:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/08/10/sahara-like-heat-marches-north-sparks-scores-of-massive-wildfires-across-portugal/

Extract: "Over the past week, Sahara Desert-like weather conditions marched north into Spain and Portugal. This extreme, abnormal heat brought with it a rash of severe wildfires. And, unfortunately, these are exactly the kinds of conditions we should expect to see more and more of as a result of human-forced climate change."
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sidd

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1253 on: August 11, 2016, 09:04:26 PM »
Is this not exactly what we expect from the expansion of the Sahara northward across the Mediterranean ?

magnamentis

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1254 on: August 11, 2016, 10:07:03 PM »
that's where i'm living and it's the coolest summer since i'm here over 10 years ago and way back remembering from visiting my parents and grand parants. right now temps are between 5-15C cooler than normal ( min to max, matter of factly below 30C which is totally exceptional, normal would be >30C from july till second week of december with close to no exceptions. further the air (ocean side) is way more humid right now with real clouds, another of those real exceptions. normal would be 22-45% rel. hum. and we're permanently between 45 and 65% with 3-4 days as exceptions with the related temps of 35-42C.

further there are not more than average wildfires here, they happen each year, just in different places while portugal is worse, not last because of less sophisticated infrastructure, visible upon crossing the boarder with naked eyes.

thought a first hand real life input will be welcome. hottest year as of my memory since i'm living here permanently (retired) was 2006 while i did not verify that from numbers. it's just what everyone remembers
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Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1255 on: August 12, 2016, 05:35:51 AM »
Yesterday southern Sweden had thunderstorms, hail and snow. Cozy.
Beanie premiere today, or rather yesterday, but I refused then. :)
~+3°C again this morning.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1256 on: August 12, 2016, 01:46:59 PM »
Eric Holthaus on the Gulf Coast flooding:
Quote
One very important ongoing weather event to highlight: Louisiana will be getting a *lot* of rain today.

To be exact, high resolution weather models are showing the potential for 10-20 inches of additional rainfall by Saturday evening (this is on top of the 8-10 inches that have fallen since Wednesday morning). The National Weather Service has issued their highest alert of the risk of excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.

As I wrote in my email on Monday, this is about the same amount of rain this region gets in three typical months of hurricane season. The National Weather Service in New Orleans on Thursday repeatedly compared the ongoing rainfall event to a landfalling tropical cyclone. I think that's a good comparison. If this storm system was named Fiona, the next name on the Atlantic hurricane list, there's be wall-to-wall coverage, and Jim Cantore would be in the French Quarter. As it is, barely a mention, except on the local news. The NWS did a great job forecasting this rainfall event, I just hope that word is getting around to residents.

Some additional context: This heavy rainfall is being fueled in part by the very warm Gulf of Mexico waters, leading to an atmosphere over New Orleans that contains among the most water vapor that's ever been measured there, in the top 5 of all August readings. Since a warmer atmosphere can hold more water vapor, this rainfall event was made more likely by global warming.
http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-louisiana-rain-edition-friday-august-12th

Images: > current gulf area radar, with flash flood watch/warn areas.
> 3-day QPF (forecast rainfall, in inches)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1257 on: August 12, 2016, 10:01:11 PM »
A few tweets on the Louisiana flooding happening now.  Click on the links for photos/animations.

Gov. Edwards has declared a state of emergency for the entire state of LA because of severe weather → bit.ly/2bcZHk9 #lagov #lawx
https://twitter.com/louisianagov/status/764124827682803712

Nearly stationary swirl of rain devastating parts of the Deep South with flooding #lawx #mswx #flooding
https://twitter.com/gregpostel/status/764124863246327808

Anticyclonic (aka clockwise) rotation embedded in the cyclonic rotation of the SE low pressure system! #LAwx #flood
https://twitter.com/metstatinc/status/764179006400802816

Not a guarantee but HRRR paints a believable, troubling picture w/ big rains redeveloping late tonight. #LAwx
https://twitter.com/stevewafb/status/764161401183211521

FAST rises on area rivers in south MS, southeast LA & near Baton Rouge!! #LAwx #MSwx water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.ph…
https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/764084621239648260

River Flood stages & crests. Note some of these are now RECORD Crests...higher than the Flood of 1983! #lawx @WWLTV
https://twitter.com/dave_nussbaum/status/764180381474193409

Dangerous & life threatening driving conditions in flash flood areas!! SW MS, north of I-12 in SE LA #LAwx #MSwx
https://twitter.com/nwsneworleans/status/764080593038565378

Via @WalkerPolice - caskets now floating in St. Mark's Cemetery on Dunn St in Walker. #LAwx
https://twitter.com/stevewafb/status/764178097981779968


WPC storm summary as of 10am Friday, local time.  List of rainfall totals so far.
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc2.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1258 on: August 13, 2016, 04:02:35 AM »
America’s Latest 500-Year Rainstorm Is Underway Right Now in Louisiana
Observers are calling the record floods a “classic signal of climate change” — and high-resolution models predict another one to two feet of rain by Saturday evening.
Quote
Today’s rainstorm in Louisiana is at least the eighth 500-year rainfall event across America in little more than a year, including similarly extreme downpours in Oklahoma last May, central Texas (twice: last May and last October), South Carolina last October, northern Louisiana this March, West Virginia in June, and Maryland last month.
https://psmag.com/americas-latest-500-year-rainstorm-is-underway-right-now-in-louisiana-98acbdf435d0
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1259 on: August 13, 2016, 03:08:43 PM »
"Cloudbursts Friday hit Illinois State Fair in Springfield with more than 5.56″ of rain—3.44″ of it in just one hour–while drenching rains submerge sections of the Chicago area in the wake of the driest August open in 46 years! ... The rates at which the thundery downpours fell paralleled what you might see in a tropical storm or hurricane."
http://chicagoweathercenter.com/blog/cloudbursts-friday-hit-illinois-state-fair-in-springfield-with-more-than-5-56-of-rain-3-44-of-it-in-just-one-hour-while-drenching-rains-submerge-sections-of-the-chicago-area-int-he-wake-of-the
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1260 on: August 13, 2016, 09:27:52 PM »
Some areas in Louisiana have received over 3 feet of rain in the last 72 hours! (Over 914 mm!)

Quote
MRMS (gauge-corrected) 72-hr rainfall total over Louisiana thru 7 AM CDT
many parishes w/15-30" ... max 3-feet+
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/764487914403328002

Top weatherman at WAFB Baton Rouge, on the flood:  "I can't tell you what's going to happen because we've never seen anything like this before."
https://twitter.com/scottpw7/status/764501080549920769
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1261 on: August 13, 2016, 10:07:52 PM »
This sprawling, “stacked” low is carrying more water vapor than many tropical cyclones -- but this system does not qualify as a tropical cyclone because its center has remained just inland.

Record Flooding in Southeast Louisiana May Get Worse
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/record-flooding-in-southeast-louisiana-may-get-worse
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1262 on: August 13, 2016, 10:14:39 PM »
Meanwhile, on the East Coast:

Current AccuWeather RealFeel® temps (combination temp/humidity/wind/clouds/sun):
NYC: 111F.  (43.9C)
Philadelphia: 106F
Baltimore: 107F
Washington, D.C.: 109F
Dover, DE: 112F
Easton, MD: 115F  (46.1C)

https://twitter.com/breakingweather/status/764522427405758466
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1263 on: August 13, 2016, 10:34:17 PM »
Dispassionate data-images.  Horrifying to watch.  Louisiana (LA) flooding.

Entire 48+ hours (11-13 Aug) of 1-minute GOES-14 IR images during LA flooding event:


https://twitter.com/cimss_satellite/status/764551402966355968
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1264 on: August 14, 2016, 12:40:12 AM »
Dispassionate data-images.  Horrifying to watch.  Louisiana (LA) flooding.

Entire 48+ hours (11-13 Aug) of 1-minute GOES-14 IR images during LA flooding event:


https://twitter.com/cimss_satellite/status/764551402966355968

Awesome time lapse of the storm.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1265 on: August 14, 2016, 02:09:23 AM »
Eric Holthaus:  This is a truly terrifying graphic. Amite River [in Louisiana] has risen 28ft in 2 days, now >6ft above previous all-time record.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/764544263006801921
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1266 on: August 15, 2016, 12:02:13 AM »
1,000 motorists are just now able to begin leaving the flooded interstate highways in Louisiana where they were marooned overnight.

Quote
As waters recede, stranded I-12 motorists are exiting the interstate now. I-12 EB is now OPEN east of I-55 to MS.
https://twitter.com/lastatepolice/status/764922383727595520

Not prepared for this': Motorists stranded on I-12 describe miserable conditions
Quote
About 1,000 frustrated motorists remained stranded on Interstate 12 Sunday, many without food and water, after historic flooding made parts of the roadway impassable, state officials said.

Most of the marooned spent Saturday night stuck on dry stretches of the interstate, including a Lafayette woman headed to her father's funeral in Slidell, which she missed.

And state officials did not expect to re-open the roadway entirely, or rescue the motorists, on Sunday either.

Those stranded said they have been plagued by a lack of water, food and information.

"It is hot and humid and there is no place for anybody to go," said Julie Cobb, who with her husband Jason and sons Nathan, 8 and Charlie, 5 are headed for Destin Fla. from their home in Spring, Texas.

"People are not prepared for this situation," she said in a telephone interview. "You just don't realize what is going on."
http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/article_996eaa62-6237-11e6-87e7-8fbbc5dacbbe.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1267 on: August 15, 2016, 04:01:41 PM »
Disaster Zone in Louisiana As More than Seven Thousand People Rescued
SUN,  AUG 14
There's an unfolding disaster in Louisiana as thousands more were rescued as deadly and devastating floods sweep through town after town.  VIDEO:
http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/disaster-zone-in-louisiana-as-more-than-seven-thousand-people-rescued-744213571845

WBRZ video:
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Truck swept off Hwy 10 east of Clinton. Driver on top waiting for rescue. He's been there 20mins now. @WBRZ #lawx
https://twitter.com/tvmarkarmstrong/status/764151314129428482

Quote
@wxjerdman: Stunning to see river crest records standing for several decades poised to be shattered in Louisiana. #lawx #flood
https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/764470970681794564
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1268 on: August 15, 2016, 07:53:07 PM »
Historic Flood Event in Louisiana From 20-30 Inches of Rain
Quote
A historic flooding event continues over southern Louisiana, where widespread rainfall amounts in excess of twenty inches since Friday have brought all ten river gauges on the Amite, Tickfaw, and Comite Rivers to record flood crests, flooded thousands of homes, and caused over 1,000 water rescues. The most extreme floods have occurred on the Amite River, which flows along the east side of the Baton Rouge metropolitan area. Flood waters stranded hundreds of cars on Interstate 12 just east of Baton Rouge for more than 24 hours, Saturday through Sunday.

About 25 miles east-southeast of Baton Rouge, the flood crest on the Amite River appears likely to overtop the levee system built at Port Vincent after the destructive floods of April 1983 (at the tail end of the 1982-83 “super” El Niño). The flood control system was designed to handle a recurrence of the 14.6-foot crest observed in that record event. However, the Amite at Port Vincent had already reached 14.91 feet as of 9:15 am CDT Sunday, and it is projected to hit a crest of 16.5 feet early Monday, remaining above the previous record until Tuesday. Major flooding can be expected to the south of Port Vincent in southern parts of Ascension Parish, where voluntary evacuations are already in effect. “If you can get out, get out now,” said parish president Kenny Matassa on Sunday morning.
https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/historic-flood-event-in-louisiana-from-2030-inches-of-rain#
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1269 on: August 17, 2016, 04:53:09 PM »
Louisiana flooding: worst in U.S. since Superstorm Sandy
Quote
At least 11 people have been killed, some 40,000 homes affected and 30,000 people rescued in what officials have described as some of the worst flooding ever to hit the state.

Around 8,000 people remain in emergency shelters, days after the deluge began.
...
Among the worst affected was Livingston Parish, where more than three quarters of all homes have already been "lost to floods," Lori Steele, a spokeswoman for the parish, told NBC News.

"We're devastated in Livingston," Livingston Sheriff Jason Dore told the news conference.

Floodwaters were slopping over the top of the the Laurel Ridge levee, which protects the parish in the Baton Rouge metropolitan area from the Amite River, according to the Ascension Parish Homeland Security Office.

A third of Ascension's 45,000 homes have been flooded — and waters there are expected to rise.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/louisiana-flooding-u-s-s-worst-disaster-hurricane-sandy-red-n632496
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1270 on: August 19, 2016, 01:36:38 PM »
"When no-name storms have the ability to become 500-year scale disasters, we should know we've reached a new meteorological era. These storms will continue to happen more and more frequently unless our leaders stop worrying about the incremental battles of yesterday, and start building a brand new tomorrow as quickly as possible."
http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-obama-s-climate-legacy-edition-friday-august-19th
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1271 on: August 20, 2016, 01:37:33 AM »
Center of U.S. tornado activity shifting east and south, possibly due to climate change
Quote
A Purdue University research team has found that the center of tornado activity in the United States has shifted in recent decades, and this shift is possibly influenced by climate change.

"This completely redefines annual tornado activity in the United States," said Ernest Agee, a professor in the Department of Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences.

Findings detailed in a paper that appeared Aug. 4 in the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, published by the American Meteorological Society, show evidence that the central area of annual tornado activity has moved from Oklahoma to Alabama.

Agee's team studied data from the past 60 years to look for a shift in annual tornado activity. The team divided the 60 years into two groups: 1954-1983, which was a time of cooler temperatures compared to an increasingly warmer second period, from 1983-2013.

Data showed a notable decrease in both annual counts and tornado days in the traditional "tornado alley" of the central plains, aided by declines in summer and autumn. However, annual values were sustained in the southeast with some increase in "Dixie alley" due in part to substantial autumn seasons increases from Mississippi to Indiana, Agee said.

One (250km x 250km) region in Oklahoma, for example, had the greatest annual number of tornado days in the first period. However, in the latter period, a similar Oklahoma region recorded the largest decrease in tornado days, while central Tennessee had the greatest increase.
http://phys.org/news/2016-08-center-tornado-shifting-east-south.html
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1272 on: August 20, 2016, 06:25:31 PM »
Thank you Sigmetnow. I love these kinds of studies that get at the recent trends in weather we are experiencing as a result of AGW. I have no doubt this shift is due to human related activities. I studied and posted here a couple of years ago an evaluation of the number of tornadoes that were occurring and it was fairly clear that the number of tornadoes and their strength was not increasing. There was some evidence of an increase in the weakest tornadoes, F1's, but I think this may be due to our ability to identify and track them.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1273 on: August 20, 2016, 08:30:27 PM »
110,000 homes worth a combined $21 billion are in Louisiana’s flood-affected zones, study says
Quote
The first attempt to assess the scope of damage from the past week’s historic flooding in Louisiana has produced staggering numbers.

Approximately 280,000 people live in the areas that flooded, according to an analysis released Friday by the Baton Rouge Area Chamber. In those flood-affected areas are 110,000 homes worth a combined $20.7 billion and more than 7,000 businesses — about one in every five businesses in the region — that together employ more than 73,000 people.

The figures underscore two of the biggest challenges that families as well as local, state and federal officials face as they work to recover from the unprecedented flooding: How to house those left suddenly homeless, and how to pay for the recovery.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-nation/wp/2016/08/19/110000-homes-worth-a-combined-21-billion-are-in-louisianas-flood-affected-zones-study-says/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1274 on: August 21, 2016, 02:49:48 AM »
From @NWSSanAntonio Texas:
High confidence of flash flooding, several inches of rain already, up to 10 inches [254mm] *more* rain tonight.
 https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/767094624603086848
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1275 on: August 21, 2016, 01:07:57 PM »
The No-name storm dumped three times as much rain in Louisiana as Hurricane Katrina
Quote
The  Louisiana flood has taken at least 13 lives and damaged 40,000 homes. This multibillion-dollar disaster is a devastating example of the damage water can do and proves that a hurricane is not required to leave behind a flooding catastrophe.

[Louisiana disaster reveals deep challenges in flood communication]

The multi-day rainfall totals, shown both in the map above and in the list below, are stunning — many in the 20-30 inch range.
...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/19/no-name-storm-dumped-three-times-as-much-rain-in-louisiana-as-hurricane-katrina/
 

If you would like to donate to the Red Cross relief effort in Louisiana, it's easy to do.  Go to REDCROSS.ORG, or call 1-800-RED-CROSS, or text the word LAFLOODS to 90999 to make a $10 donation.

Image:  Multi-day rainfall totals from Louisiana flood, August 2016. (National Weather Service)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1276 on: August 21, 2016, 01:46:06 PM »
And the gulf rain system moves on to south Texas:

Heavy Rain Swamps Texas; Water Rescues Reported in San Antonio
Quote
More than a half foot of rain has fallen in some areas. One location near Gonzales, Texas, saw 8.73 inches of rain in a five-hour period Saturday night.
https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/heavy-rain-texas-water-rescues

More rain on the way today:
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1277 on: August 21, 2016, 03:23:52 PM »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1278 on: August 21, 2016, 05:22:48 PM »
Japan sees three tropical cyclones at once
The laws of physics clearly cannot be broken, but this looks suspicious.
Quote
However difficult it is to forecast the weather, the results will always follow the laws of physics.

At the moment, the forecast paths of three tropical storms, now close to Japan, seems to question logic.

If all three followed similar paths - because all three are being steered by the same wind and sitting over the same warm water - then it would just be a busy period.

Unfortunately, this does not seem to be the case.

At 1200GMT on Saturday, Tropical Storm Mindulle was very close to Iwo Jima and moving north. Tropical Storm Lionrock was 500km south of Osaka and heading west. While Tropical Storm Kompasu was less than 500km east of Tokyo, yet travelling northwestwards.

Tropical storms are steered by winds in the middle atmosphere and are fed by the warmth of the waters beneath them. On first sight, it makes no sense that three storms this close to each other should go in different directions.

Indeed, when any two tropical cyclones are within 2,000km of each other, they may well start "dancing". They interact in what is known as the Fujiwhara Effect and rotate around a point halfway between each other.

These storms fit the bill but show no signs of interacting now or in the forecast future.

The laws of physics clearly cannot be broken, and on closer inspection, the atmosphere shows the cause of this apparent lack of sense: A line of discontinuity in the atmosphere runs across Japan, just to the west of Tokyo, from north to south.

In meteorological terms, this is called a trough and is a common feature in the atmosphere. It can be thought of as a crack, rather like that seen in deeply parched ground.

In the atmosphere, that crack, or trough, can reach from the top of the atmosphere to the ground, and one is developing over Japan.


Tropical storms cannot cross such troughs and on either side the wind blows away, so Storm Lionrock, on the western side, heads west while Storm Kompasu, on the eastern side, will move northeast.

The only one of these storms to become newsworthy will be Mindulle. It is just to the east of this deepening trough crack and following the side upwards straight towards Tokyo.

It is likely to become a typhoon before it enters Tokyo Bay on Monday.

Satellite evidence suggests that a fourth cyclone is forming to complete the square in the southeast corner.

As yet, this cluster of tropical thunderstorms has not been officially identified.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/08/japan-sees-tropical-cyclones-160820123533383.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1279 on: August 25, 2016, 12:22:09 AM »
Moving this to this thread:

Eric Holthaus:
Quote
There's been a surge of coverage of the Louisiana floods over the past 24 hours or so by the national media, but as New Orleans-based NPR reporter Ryan Kailath tweeted,"It's not that the national media isn't covering. It's that the national audience doesn't always seem to care."

Why don't we care about Louisiana?

Thousands of Americans are, tonight, in shelters across the state with nowhere to go. There's a possibility that the "FEMA trailers" notorious during Hurricane Katrina more than 10 years ago could make a comeback, given the scale of devastation. In the hardest hit communities, about 90 percent of homes have been destroyed. A heartbreaking editorial by the tremendously overworked and indispensable Baton Rouge Advocate practically begged President Obama to pay attention. This is after a series of sometimes cynical critiques like this one in Salon and this one in the Atlantic.

Along with Andy Revkin and Jacquelyn Gill, I recorded a special emergency edition of our Warm Regards podcast last night to talk through these issues, which has broken a record for listeners in a single day in our short run so far. Andy's comprehensive Dot Earth post also gets to the heart of what's happening here.
More links in the original article:   http://tinyletter.com/sciencebyericholthaus/letters/today-in-weather-climate-why-louisiana-matters-edition-thursday-august-18th

The podcast is here:   https://soundcloud.com/warmregardspodcast/flood-watch-putting-louisianas-epic-floods-in-a-climate-context
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1280 on: August 25, 2016, 08:32:58 PM »
Wednesday May Have Been One of the Most Active August Tornado Days on Record in the U.S.
Quote
The final tornado count from Wednesday may rank as one of the most active August tornado days on record.

It could also end up ranked as a top 20 largest tornado outbreak on record in Indiana.

Wednesday's tornado outbreak in Indiana and Ohio could rank among the largest tornado days on record for the month of August after a final confirmed number of tornadoes is determined.
https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/indiana-ohio-tornado-outbreak-perspective


Notably, the NWS Storm Prediction Center and other meteorologists did not foresee this outbreak.
U.S. Tornadoes:  Up to 20 tornado reports and climbing across Indiana and Ohio, with "surprise" tornado outbreak today.
https://twitter.com/ustornadoes/status/768573423165575168
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1281 on: August 25, 2016, 09:32:27 PM »
Do people need more than 20 minutes to act on tornado danger?  I say: yes, planning your day knowing there is a higher than usual risk of tornadoes keeps more people safe.

Yesterday’s Midwest tornado outbreak was not in the forecast. What happened?
Quote
It’s a lot of tornadoes for a day that appeared “minimal risk” at the outset.

Tornadoes are a science not settled. That much is clear from Wednesday’s events. It’s surprising that a large outbreak occurred with no risk area issued by the Storm Prediction Center in the hours prior. It hardly happens anymore, but that doesn’t mean it can’t.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/08/25/yesterdays-midwest-tornado-outbreak-was-not-in-the-forecast-what-happened/
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mati

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1282 on: August 25, 2016, 11:23:12 PM »
an F1 tornado hit Windsor ontario as well yesterday, totally unexpected with no warnings...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/cleanup-southwest-ontario-tornado-1.3735830
and so it goes

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1283 on: August 30, 2016, 03:56:46 AM »
Satellite animation of two hurricanes headed toward Hawai'i.

Quote
Hurricanes #Madeline and #Lester churning westward across the Pacific, latest NHC / CPHC forecast tracks included
https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/770404921434857472
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Juan C. García

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1284 on: August 30, 2016, 04:08:22 AM »
The worst Typhoon (with the lowest pressure at the Northern Hemisphere and on the Pacific Ocean) is in front of Japan.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1285 on: August 30, 2016, 04:26:45 AM »
Colorado Springs brings out snowplows -- in August! -- to deal with heavy hail from "stuck thunderstorms" that also caused flooding.

Colorado Springs Hit By Flooding, Hail; Water Rescues, Sinkhole Reported
https://weather.com/news/news/colorado-springs-flooding-hail

As storm moves out, El Paso County residents begin recovery from floods, hail
http://gazette.com/as-storm-moves-out-el-paso-county-residents-begin-recovery-from-floods-hail/article/1583947
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Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1286 on: August 30, 2016, 12:36:32 PM »
Return of the "Pacific Blob"?  I actually don't think it has ever gone away....but now there are three "mini blobs" in the Pacific:  One off the coast of Oregon/Washington....one northeast of Japan....and one WEST of Japan.

A fourth area.....just south of the Hawaiian islands is also warming, and its warmth stretches to the entire west coast of Mexico and Central America.  As most of you likely know....there are currently two hurricanes in action heading for Hawaii that are riding that warm water.

https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=3668502585335462792#editor/target=post;postID=7264693089164824936;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=7;src=link

But the more interesting thing to watch for me....is the continued warming of the "triple blobs" in the north Pacific mentioned earlier.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1287 on: August 30, 2016, 06:47:46 PM »
The United States is Facing Four Simultaneous Tropical Threats
In a year of record temperatures, the U.S. has a surplus of storms heading its way — and Hawaii might have to get used to more hurricanes.
Quote
The only one that will unavoidably make landfall — technically defined as its center crossing over land — is Tropical Depression Nine, formerly known as Invest 99L. Meteorologists have been tracking this system for at least 11 days now, since it emerged off the coast of West Africa. Recent weather models have become less ominous about the system, and the National Hurricane Center expects it to reach land in northwest Florida as a mid-strength tropical storm.
...
Meanwhile, in the Pacific, two strong hurricanes — Madeline and Lester — are currently heading toward Hawaii. To say that a double hurricane landfall in Hawaii in the span of less than a week is rare would be a serious understatement: It has never happened in history, according to Hawaiian hurricane records that date back to 1949. Hawaii as a whole has seen only two hurricane landfalls during that entire period — Dot (1959) and Iniki (1992).
...
And these four aren’t all that may be headed our way. On the edge of reliable forecasts, about a week from now, a tropical system currently emerging off West Africa may also head toward the Caribbean or the southeastern United States. As I said, it’s peak season.
https://psmag.com/the-united-states-is-facing-four-simultaneous-tropical-threats-5cfe1ea51d06#.drvso63jx
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1288 on: August 31, 2016, 09:51:10 PM »
One Hurricane Is Rare In Hawaii, And The State Might See Two This Week
Quote
Hawaii faces a rare threat this week, and a possible preview of climate change: Two hurricanes — Madeline and Lester –– are expected to pass very close to the islands in quick succession. Data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Office for Coastal Management shows that this likely hasn’t happened since at least 1949, when reliable weather record keeping began in the Central Pacific.

The threat coincides with President Obama’s Wednesday visit to Hawaii, where he will address a meeting of Pacific heads of state on environmental conservation. Neither hurricane is expected to affect the meeting on Oahu, but a potential meteorological disaster so close by will add an exclamation point to Obama’s message, which is expected to emphasize the urgent need to address climate change. Later on the trip, Obama is scheduled to visit remote Midway Atoll, near where he recently expanded what is now the largest marine protected area in the world, and attend the G20 summit in China, where he is reportedly going to enter the United States formally into the 2015 Paris accord on climate change.
...
In recent years, Hawaii’s hurricane threat appears to have grown, although whether that is a symptom of natural climate variability or human-caused climate change is a subject of scientific debate. ...
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-hurricane-is-rare-in-hawaii-and-the-state-might-see-two-this-week/
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Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1289 on: September 04, 2016, 10:16:18 PM »
"Of the 10 or so meteorologists I’ve talked to in the last day or so, none can recall Hermine’s rare combination: a hurricane that has transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone, one that is forecast to transition back into a hurricane and one that will stall just off the East Coast for most of a week. It probably hasn’t happened before, at least going back several decades."

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/we-havent-seen-many-storms-like-hermine/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1290 on: September 06, 2016, 08:33:13 PM »
Study: Typhoons that slam Asia getting much stronger
Quote
Typhoons that slam into land in the northwestern Pacific — especially the biggest tropical cyclones of the bunch — have gotten considerably stronger since the 1970s, a new study concludes.

Overall, landfalling Asian typhoon intensity has increased by about 12 percent in nearly four decades. But the change is most noticeable for storms with winds of 209 kilometers per hour or more (130 mph), those in categories 4 and 5. Since 1977, they've gone from a once-a-year occurrence to four times a year, according to a study Monday in the journal Nature Geoscience.

These are storms like Lionrock that in August killed at least 17 people, about half of them elderly residents of a Japanese nursing home, and Haiyan — one of the strongest storms on record, killing more than 6,000 people in the Philippines in 2013.
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/2c037bb732ce477ba5a6ad60282ce02a/study-typhoons-slam-asia-getting-much-stronger
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1291 on: September 07, 2016, 01:24:26 AM »
Study: Typhoons that slam Asia getting much stronger

Here is a related article from Scribbler:

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/09/06/new-study-climate-change-has-doubled-the-number-of-category-4-and-5-storms-striking-east-and-southeast-asia/

Extract: "New Study: Climate Change Has Doubled the Number of Category 4 and 5 Storms Striking East and Southeast Asia
The atmospheric-ocean heat engine. It’s a pretty simple mechanism for pumping up the power of storms. But as simple as it is, the results can be devastating when this engine gets revved up by human-forced climate change, according to a new study released Monday in Nature Geoscience."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1292 on: September 07, 2016, 10:10:22 PM »
NOAA: Expect More Extreme Flood Events In the Future
Quote
Extreme, catastrophic flood events like the one that swamped Louisiana last month are becoming more likely because of climate change, according to a hot-off-the-press analysis by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The study found that the record rainfall responsible for last month’s epic floods—the worst natural disaster to hit the United States since superstorm Sandy—was made at least 40 percent more likely by global warming. The researchers arrived at that conclusion by applying a new but increasingly popular statistical approach called “weather attribution.” Details of the analysis, which is currently under peer review, can be found in the open-access journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.

“We found that the mostly likely impact of climate change is a near doubling of the odds of such a storm.”
http://gizmodo.com/noaa-expect-more-extreme-flood-events-in-the-future-1786333685
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oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1293 on: September 10, 2016, 12:59:10 AM »
Unprecedented atmospheric behavior disrupts one of Earth's most regular climate cycles
Quote
A team of scientists has discovered an unexpected disruption in one of the most repeatable atmospheric patterns.

The normal flow of air high up in the atmosphere over the equator, known as the quasi-biennial oscillation, was seen to break down earlier this year. These stratospheric winds are found high above the tropics, their direction and strength changes in a regular two- to three-year cycle which provides forecasters with an indication of the weather to expect in Northern Europe. Westerly winds are known to increase the chance of warm and wet conditions, while easterlies bring drier and colder weather.

The quasi-biennial oscillation is a regular feature of the climate system. On average, these equatorial eastward and westward winds alternate every 28 to 29 months, making them very predictable in the long term. The team's findings published in Science this week, show that this unexpected change in wind direction was caused by atmospheric waves in the Northern Hemisphere.

A return to more typical behaviour within the next year is forecast, though scientists believe that the quasi-biennial oscillation could become more susceptible to similar disruptions as the climate warms.
http://phys.org/news/2016-09-unprecedented-atmospheric-behavior-disrupts-earth.html

Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1294 on: September 13, 2016, 07:19:16 AM »
The meteorological autumn hasn't started in southern Finland yet. Temperatures during days climb regularly above 15, even 20 C (that's 60s of F, for you imperials) and the first frosts have not yet been observed at least on our yard (which is quite coolly located). As a result the autumn colors of the trees are mostly absent, only birches and rowans (as northern species) have started to go yellow. This autumn the more southern species manage better than the more normal local species.
« Last Edit: September 13, 2016, 09:01:50 AM by Pmt111500 »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1295 on: September 13, 2016, 08:17:25 PM »
Quote
Super Typhoon #Meranti is Earth's strongest storm of 2016.
Full lifecycle animation:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=WP162016

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/775730597670981632

Meranti has been 185+ mph intensity for past 18 hrs. Only 2 prior NW Pacific tropical cyclones since 1970 did this (Tip & Haiyan)

Quote
"If there was such a thing as a Category 6 Typhoon, #Meranti would be one. 185mph sustained wind is well above Cat 5."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/775744244484935680

Super Typhoon Meranti Packing 185 MPH Winds, Dangerous Threat to Taiwan, China and Northern Philippines
https://weather.com/storms/typhoon/news/tropical-depression-sixteen-w-tropical-storm-typhoon-meranti-sep2016
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budmantis

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1296 on: September 13, 2016, 09:22:34 PM »
Here's an infrared image of Meranti.

oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1297 on: September 14, 2016, 12:36:58 AM »
Quote
Meranti's winds increased from 85 mph to 180 mph in the 24 hours ending Monday at 11 a.m. EDT, according to the JTWC.
And it's at 190 mph as of two hours ago.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1298 on: September 14, 2016, 02:29:10 AM »
I went to the north coast of SW England this morning through heavy rain, to find myself enveloped in thick mist. I returned home to a thunderstorm, plus this from the ToryGraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/09/13/hot-weather-alert-with-temperatures-expected-to-reach-30c/

Quote
It is the hottest day of the year so far, the Met Office has confirmed, as temperatures rocketed past 34C (93F).

A temperature of 34.4C was recorded at Gravesend in Kent, making it the hottest September day since 1911. Heathrow and Kew Gardens followed as they both recorded temperatures of 32.8C at lunchtime.

Large parts of England were placed on heatwave alert, the first time Public Health England has ever issued a warning in September, with hot and humid weather forecast for the next few days.

However, there was a striking North/South divide as parts of northern England and Scotland suffered bad flooding.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1299 on: September 17, 2016, 06:02:26 PM »
"There's no way we can cast this as good news that winters will warm substantially."

Study: By 2050, Massachusetts Winters Could Have As Few As 20 Days With Temps Below Freezing
Quote
A study conducted by researchers at the University of Massachusetts Amherst and published in the October issue of the Journal of Climate projects that, by the year 2050, there could be as few as 20 days in the state where temperatures hit below the freezing mark.

Currently, that number stands at about 90 days a year.

Michael Rawlins, lead author of the study and manager of UMass Amherst's Climate Science Research Center, says the projected decrease is a result of the continued emissions of climate-warming greenhouse gases. For his research, Rawlins used projections in which emissions continued to rise aggressively. He said picking such a model made sense because the planet is now at a point in which temperatures will rise this century — regardless of any actions taken to reduce emissions.
...
Rawlins notes that warming winters could profoundly disrupt ecosystems, particularly of insects such as mosquitoes and ticks that have come to expect cold, freezing winters.

And while warmer winters would mean heating costs would go down for consumers, Rawlins projects summers will also be warmer — so cooling costs would go up.
http://www.wbur.org/news/2016/09/16/climate-change-mid-century-massachusetts-winters
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