Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change

[Sleepy]

Wedge tornado in Germany yesterday.
https://twitter.com/BWiesel92/status/996797568846913536
https://twitter.com/mikeseidel/status/996854990634446848

I had to download those.

[Sigmetnow]

More on the recent severe weather in the northeast U.S. (here, Maryland):

“Just like Ellicott City, MD on 7/30/16, nearly 8 inches [200 mm] of rain fell in Frederick, MD in just a few hours last night (2 months worth). In the last 7 decades the amount of water falling in heavy rain events has increased ~71% in the northeast U.S., likely related to #climatechange ”
https://twitter.com/ClimateWeave/status/996902405466984453
Graphic below.

[Archimid]

but, but, but clouds reduce day time heatwaves!

[Daniel B.]

but, but, but clouds reduce day time heatwaves!

Yes, everything has a give and take.

[Alexander555]

What has the biggest impact when you talk about clouds, for the arctic ? That they block the sun, or that they protect the heat. If it would move in from somewhere south.

[Neven]

What has the biggest impact when you talk about clouds, for the arctic ? That they block the sun, or that they protect the heat. If it would move in from somewhere south.

That's an off-topic question, but the answer is: It depends on the time of year.

[Alexander555]

Sorry for posting off-topic an question. And maybe it was a little bit a stupid question. Because there is no sun to block for most of the year. And the sun you have in summer is weak, just enough for 1 degree C. So the clouds will mainly protect the heat. But than it's still a little weird why the anomolies are so big in winter, and there are almost none during the short summer.

[Alexander555]

I was just thinking about that small weird anomaly during summer. But if i look at the temperatures at my home in winter and summer. And at the temperature at the Arctic. The winter temperature at the Arctic in January is -35 degree C. The summer temperature is like 1 degree C. At my home the day winter temperature is 5 degree C and the night temperature is 1 degree C. And the summer day temperature is 22 degree C , and the night temperature is 13 degree C. That means in winter there is a 40 degree C gap between my home and the Arctic. So if there would be a wind that travels from my place to the arctic it will cause an anomaly if it drops less than 40 degree C over these few 1000 miles. But in summer that gap between my home night temperature and the Arctic is only 12 degree C. So the temperature has to drop less than 12 degree to get an anomaly during a summer night. It may lose less than 12 degree C over the same few 1000 miles. Or there is no anomaly left. And it can not get colder, because you move to the coldest point. That means if the Arctic warmes faster than Europe, there is less chance for an anomaly. Because the gap will only get smaller. You think it has something to do with it ? And i live close to the atlantic ocean, that gives us mild winters. So in central Europe, the gap is probably smaller in winter.

[Neven]

Maybe it's better to continue here, Alexander555.

[Daniel B.]

Sorry for posting off-topic an question. And maybe it was a little bit a stupid question. Because there is no sun to block for most of the year. And the sun you have in summer is weak, just enough for 1 degree C. So the clouds will mainly protect the heat. But than it's still a little weird why the anomolies are so big in winter, and there are almost none during the short summer.

You may have just answered your question.  The slight cooling in summer is probably due to the clouds blocking a weak sun, even though it is present continuously.  The large warming in winter is most definitely affected by increased cloudiness.  So, as Neven says, it depends on the time of year, but overall, the large winter warming seems to Trump the small summer cooling.

[Pmt111500]

The location where Heat of fusion/melting is involved in and over Arctic Ocean hydrology is moving upwards, thus thinner ice, thicker clouds. Once BOE the T(air) goes up pretty quickly and the Atlantification/Pacification of Arctic (Mediterranean) Ocean is complete on surface. We'll probably see normal stratocumulus rolls etc. then letting some sunlight through the surface. A good question is, is there still time to save the winter ice of Arctic.

[Forest Dweller]

Several videos of the tornado that hit Germany just across the border are here:
https://nltimes.nl/2018/05/17/video-tornado-tears-germany-just-missing-netherlands

Looks like maybe an F2 or F3 which is pretty strong for this region.
And perhaps a bit early...
Dutch meteorologists expect tornado frequency to increase.
Few people know that The Netherlands has the most tornadoes per square kilometer in the world, including the Dutch themselves.
But they are usually small, a big F4 or F5 outbreak does happen every decade or so however.
I managed to warn for the last one in 2016(luck i s'pose).
People forget every time and wonder how that is possible in the Netherlands???

We've been pretty lucky so far, with the big tornadoes occurring away from most people and damaging a few small towns or neighborhoods.
But as densely populated as it is here, good chance of a worse event i'd say.

[Sleepy]

The location where Heat of fusion/melting is involved in and over Arctic Ocean hydrology is moving upwards, thus thinner ice, thicker clouds. Once BOE the T(air) goes up pretty quickly and the Atlantification/Pacification of Arctic (Mediterranean) Ocean is complete on surface. We'll probably see normal stratocumulus rolls etc. then letting some sunlight through the surface. A good question is, is there still time to save the winter ice of Arctic.

Earth will have plenty of time to restore it, once she has snuffed out those pesky lifeforms who are giving her the rash.

Meanwhile, a slightly unusual spring here continues. The following image may also serve as a nice analogue for deniers, skeptics and incrementalists who are obsessively staring at cooler anomalies?

[Tor Bejnar]

Yup, I see that cooling trend from the 15th to the 17th. 

[Alexander555]

https://watchers.news/2018/05/21/very-rare-cyclone-sagar-hits-somalia-19-people-killed-in-flash-floods-and-thousands-affected/

[Alexander555]

https://watchers.news/2018/05/21/heatwave-in-karachi-claims-at-least-64-lives-pakistan/

[TerryM]

https://watchers.news/2018/05/21/heatwave-in-karachi-claims-at-least-64-lives-pakistan/

It seems very early in the season. They gave the temperature in F&C, but I wonder what the wet bulb temperatures reached?
It's high wet bulb temperatures that typically cause deaths.
Terry

[Shared Humanity]

https://watchers.news/2018/05/21/heatwave-in-karachi-claims-at-least-64-lives-pakistan/

For some here, this is nothing to worry about. Cold weather is the thing we have to watch out for.

For me? This is only the beginning and, over the next 2 decades, millions will die from heat waves and drought.

[Tunnelforce9]

In my country (Netherlands) we are experiencing the hottest May in 300 years  (since records started)

"If we look at this month so far, and with the weather forecast in hand, the average monthly temperature in De Bilt is 16.5 to 16.8 degrees. Normally it is 13.1 degrees '', says meteorologist Ben Lankamp of Weerplaza. "In June the normal average temperature is 15.6 degrees"




source (dutch) https://www.ad.nl/binnenland/beleven-we-de-warmste-mei-in-driehonderd-jaar~a79e6621/

[Alexander555]

https://watchers.news/2018/05/21/heatwave-in-karachi-claims-at-least-64-lives-pakistan/

For some here, this is nothing to worry about. Cold weather is the thing we have to watch out for.

For me? This is only the beginning and, over the next 2 decades, millions will die from heat waves and drought.

Cold ? A city like Karacji with 21 million people in it. That's a mountain of asphalt, steel and concrete, no wonder it don't cools at night anymore. And that so close to the equator. I don't think cold will be a problem for them.

[Daniel B.]

https://watchers.news/2018/05/21/heatwave-in-karachi-claims-at-least-64-lives-pakistan/

For some here, this is nothing to worry about. Cold weather is the thing we have to watch out for.

For me? This is only the beginning and, over the next 2 decades, millions will die from heat waves and drought.

Hmm.  Are you sure about that?

[Shared Humanity]

https://watchers.news/2018/05/21/heatwave-in-karachi-claims-at-least-64-lives-pakistan/

For some here, this is nothing to worry about. Cold weather is the thing we have to watch out for.

For me? This is only the beginning and, over the next 2 decades, millions will die from heat waves and drought.

Hmm.  Are you sure about that?

Not sure. Certain about it!

As am I. In fact, millions are already dying. We simply refuse to acknowledge that the decades long drought in East Africa is climate change related. We will continue to refuse to acknowledge this until it is no longer possible and this will only occur when tens of millions are dying in hot spots around the world.

[Archimid]

Do cold weather deaths include snow burial? Because it seems to me that it will be less cold most of the time, but with much more snow. This WACCY thing is just starting, so I doubt that's been accounted for.

Also how does that breakdown by latitude? I know that where I live the number of cold related deaths is 0, so that can't go down. In my area we will only have increases in heat related deaths. (sans extreme disturbances in the jet streams bringing cold arctic air or stratospheric air to my area.)

[Daniel B.]

https://watchers.news/2018/05/21/heatwave-in-karachi-claims-at-least-64-lives-pakistan/

For some here, this is nothing to worry about. Cold weather is the thing we have to watch out for.

For me? This is only the beginning and, over the next 2 decades, millions will die from heat waves and drought.

Hmm.  Are you sure about that?

Not sure. Certain about it!

As am I. In fact, millions are already dying. We simply refuse to acknowledge that the decades long drought in East Africa is climate change related. We will continue to refuse to acknowledge this until it is no longer possible and this will only occur when tens of millions are dying in hot spots around the world.

Millions?  Thus far numbers from the Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters the shows the number barely in the thousands.  Even that is a big drop from earlier decades.  The highest deaths globally from drought occurred in the 1920s at a little under half a million, followed by the 40s at just over a third of a million, and the 60s at ~150k. 



Do you any data backing up your claims?

[Daniel B.]

The graph did not post.  See the link:

https://ourworldindata.org/natural-catastrophes

[Avalonian]

Daniel, according to that figure the total deaths from droughts in the 1980s was around 50,000 people. The 1983-5 drought in Ethiopia alone killed 400,000 (exacerbated by corruption etc., yes, but still waaaay more than the figure there, by whatever reckoning). What about the 2011 drought in Somalia, which conservatively killed at least 50,000 people, whereas the graph shows hardly any? Do they have an explanation for these discrepancies? If not, then I suspect that entire diagram is just a little untrustworthy!

Edit: OK, just seen that I misread the caption. That might explain the 1980s, if there was very little famine over the rest of the decade. But still: the Somalian 2011 drought alone, averaged over seven years, gives more deaths per year than the global total, according to this. Something's not right.

[Alexander555]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_European_heat_wave

[oren]

For me? This is only the beginning and, over the next 2 decades, millions will die from heat waves and drought.

Hmm.  Are you sure about that?

A. Source? I assume this is from some kind of scientific paper.
B. What RCP are you assuming? As your image shows rising heat deaths under RCP 8.5?

[Sleepy]

It's from this oren:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(17)30156-0/fulltext
Figure 1
Map of the 451 locations included in the analysis.

[Daniel B.]

For me? This is only the beginning and, over the next 2 decades, millions will die from heat waves and drought.

Hmm.  Are you sure about that?

A. Source? I assume this is from some kind of scientific paper.
B. What RCP are you assuming? As your image shows rising heat deaths under RCP 8.5?

Here is the paper:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanplh/article/PIIS2542-5196(17)30156-0/fulltext

With a few localized exceptions, heat deaths only surpass cold death under the RCP 8.5 scenario. 

[Archimid]

Of course cold deaths mean just that, death by freezing. It doesn't include deaths by snow burial, or snow water run off floods. And heat deaths will be minimal compared to other warmer planet related  deaths.  That said, I doubt that analysis includes WACCy considerations. Once WACCy starts in full swing no doubt that the deaths by cold will stop falling and start increasing.

[Sleepy]

If you look at the map I posted above yesterday, one might wonder what those who live in places like Pakistan, Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia thinks of this study? Those who still are alive that is...

[Yuha]

If you look at the map I posted above yesterday, one might wonder what those who live in places like Pakistan, Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia thinks of this study? Those who still are alive that is...

And what about Africa, India and Bangladesh?

Nevertheless, the main conclusions of the paper are:

Two results must be highlighted. First, the impact varies across areas, and populations living in warmer and, in some cases, poorer regions are expected to experience a heavier burden. Second, increases in temperature-related excess mortality are substantially reduced in scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit greenhouse emissions and further warming of the planet, and stricter mitigation approaches are associated with larger benefits.

[Shared Humanity]

If you look at the map I posted above yesterday, one might wonder what those who live in places like Pakistan, Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia thinks of this study? Those who still are alive that is...

Heat related deaths will continue to rise in these regions which will ultimately result in a massive humanitarian crisis and an exodus of people from inhospitable environments.

[Sleepy]

Yuha & SH, exactly. Which is miles away from denialist conclusions. The places I listed were just some of those with recent massive heat waves. There are, and definitely will be more, places to add to that list.

[Daniel B.]

If you look at the map I posted above yesterday, one might wonder what those who live in places like Pakistan, Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia thinks of this study? Those who still are alive that is...

And what about Africa, India and Bangladesh?

Nevertheless, the main conclusions of the paper are:

Two results must be highlighted. First, the impact varies across areas, and populations living in warmer and, in some cases, poorer regions are expected to experience a heavier burden. Second, increases in temperature-related excess mortality are substantially reduced in scenarios involving mitigation strategies to limit greenhouse emissions and further warming of the planet, and stricter mitigation approaches are associated with larger benefits.

Sometimes, the data is not all-inclusive.  Nevertheless, it is still informative.

[Hefaistos]

Yuha & SH, exactly. Which is miles away from denialist conclusions. The places I listed were just some of those with recent massive heat waves. There are, and definitely will be more, places to add to that list.

"Two-thirds of people in the world will be living in cities by 2050 and the boom will be concentrated in India, China and Nigeria, according to United Nations estimates  ... Tokyo is currently the world’s largest city with 37 million people, followed by Delhi with 29 million, Shanghai with 26 million, and Mexico City and São Paulo, each with around 22 million inhabitants. Cairo, Mumbai, Beijing and Dhaka all have close to 20 million inhabitants.
However, Delhi will overtake Tokyo in top spot by around 2028, the report said."

Delhi has 44C each day now in a relentless and extended heat-wave. Heat is forecast to increase in June, until monsoon sets in in beginning of July.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/17/two-thirds-of-world-population-will-live-in-cities-by-2050-says-un

[Sleepy]

Tack Hefaistos, missed that one.

[Forest Dweller]

Weird cyclonic storms Sagar & Mekunu in the Arabian Gulf.
Sagar was the furthest recorded west and killed 34 in Somalia as of now.
Mekunu dumped twice the yearly amount of rain on Oman/Yemen.
1 storm is weird, 2 is weirder...scribbler's post on it here:
https://robertscribbler.com/2018/05/24/odd-and-dangerous-mekunu-bears-down-on-oman/

[Sigmetnow]

Nothing to see here.  Move along.

“So, a tornado at like 8,000 feet elevation in Wyoming, epic flash flooding for th second time in as many years in Ellicott City, MD, an early season subtropical storm, some all time record May heat in the Midwest....just another day in [U.S.] weather.”
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1000862758026477568

Ellicot City flood:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg156201.html#msg156201

STS Alberto:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2237.msg155882.html#msg155882

[Sigmetnow]

The record U.S. midwest heat.  90°F = 32°C.  100°F = 38°C

“Today will clench the first-ever five-day 90°F heat wave in May in Twin Cities history. (going back to 1871)
Tomorrow should be >90°F, too. "Normal" high for today: 72°F
Longer, more intense heat waves is one of the most certain predictions of human-caused climate change. ”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/1001093628872331264
Image below.

Edit: Twin Cities = Minneapolis + St. Paul, Minnesota. U.S.

[Sigmetnow]

“Minneapolis [Minnesota, U.S. midwest] had its biggest April snowstorm on record (14.9") just six weeks ago.
Today, it's on the way to 100°F. The earliest 100°F day in recorded history here
43 days from a foot of snow to 100°F seems like some sort of national record.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1001177893005905920
Image at the link.

Edit: 
“...and, it's official. Today is the earliest 100°F day in Minneapolis history.”
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/1001186658459488257
NWS text image at the link.

Also:
“It’s crazy. Here in Toronto we had an ice storm the weekend of April 14. It’s 97 today!”
https://twitter.com/deniseinmississ/status/1001179819466477568

Toronto is 650 miles (1,050 km) from Minneapolis.

[Niall Dollard]

A new Norwegian extreme temperature record has been set today for the month of May :

 32.7 C at Etne (Hordaland) on the west coast.

[Sleepy]

Yeah, waiting until tomorrow posting the May anomalies for Sweden. May has been 3-6° C warmer than normal with individual days 10° C warmer. Extreme heat is a hundred times more common nowadays than during the sixties.

Really hope this weather doesn't persist over June an July. We are only self-sufficent on flour, sugar and carrots here...
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1102.msg155607.html#msg155607

[gerontocrat]

Yeah, waiting until tomorrow posting the May anomalies for Sweden. May has been 3-6° C warmer than normal with individual days 10° C warmer. Extreme heat is a hundred times more common nowadays than during the sixties.

How unusual are current Baltic SSTs?

[Sleepy]

Unusual. I might not understad your question gerontocrat, but I usually check DMI for baltic SST's. Today and thirty days ago.

[gerontocrat]

Unusual. I usually check DMI for baltic SST's. Today and thirty days ago.

Golly gosh - how high will they go? (rhetorical question)

Methinks also I had better get a better handle on what DMI has to offer.

[bbr2314]

Unusual. I usually check DMI for baltic SST's. Today and thirty days ago.

Golly gosh - how high will they go? (rhetorical question)

Methinks also I had better get a better handle on what DMI has to offer.

I would think this spring / SSTAs in the massive ATL warm blob and in the Med / etc support extreme and severe summer heat episodes across Europe this year, a la 2003.

[Neven]

Austria just had its warmest May since 1868, 2.6 °C above average.

[Sleepy]

While in the merry month of May, now from me home I started.
My English sucks so I never got more than the first line from The Rocky Road to Dublin.

Edit; this is more unusual than a red hot December.