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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 1198481 times)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1400 on: February 19, 2017, 02:00:36 PM »
"Spring (phenological) continues to advance northward via the "first leaf-out" & is nearly 20 days earlier than ave ( https://www.usanpn.org/data/spring )"
https://twitter.com/zlabe/status/833012592134103040
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1401 on: February 19, 2017, 04:04:13 PM »
Meteorologist Gary Szatkowski: We're going to warm so much, people will say we can't take it any more. Please stop with all the warming. Nope, we're gonna keep warming.
https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/833329156263907328
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1402 on: February 20, 2017, 01:53:55 AM »
Eric Fisher: Today's record highs...looks like warmth managed to overachieve a bit. #SpringFever
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/833436694355537920
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icefisher

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1403 on: February 20, 2017, 02:21:28 AM »
The following attachment implicates Mesospheric interaction with tropospheric convection. Due to the complex interactions and my limited knowledge of the Mesosphere I am struggling to understand how they connect.  There does not seem to be a recurrence of a sudden shutdown of an MJO event since 2011.  Is this something we need to be concerned about?

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1404 on: February 20, 2017, 02:51:28 AM »
Went on a 45 mile bike ride in Chicago today. I don't recall ever being on my bike in February.

aslan

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1405 on: February 20, 2017, 05:42:23 PM »
Downpours in Andalucía. But this kind of event usually occurs in Autumn or at the start of the Winter.

http://ccaa.elpais.com/ccaa/2017/02/19/andalucia/1487504063_160360.html?id_externo_rsoc=FB_CM

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1406 on: February 22, 2017, 04:30:29 PM »
"Lower 48 high-temperature will average 59°F [15°C] ... near warmest February day during last 3-decades+
Feb 21, 1995 tops -- Western warmth."
https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/834418272028262400
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Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1407 on: February 23, 2017, 02:47:17 PM »
Here in the US....we're having yet another warm February.  It kind of has that "2012 feel to it".  During that spring....Canada and the US had a WEIRDLY WARM MARCH...but it started with the last part of February being warm as well.

Right now....in the US....so far in February, there have only been 19 New Record LOW Temperature records set in the whole US.....through 02/20. The fewest number of New Record Lows in the US for any full month is 52 back in Feb of 1992.  And there have only been a few individual months less than 100.

Right now in the US, for February....the Ratio of "New Record Highs" to "New Record Lows" is an "off the charts" 134 to 1 ratio....with 2,546 New Record Highs, and only 19 New Record Lows through Feb 20th.

The highest ratio for any single month going back to 1930 is 54 to 1 set in January of 2006 with 4,297 New Record Highs and 80 New Record Lows.

The much warmer nights....are not allowing for temperatures to cool down as much....making it more difficult to set new record lows, as well as allowing the day time temperatures a "head start" from starting at a warmer than normal night time low temperature.

Here in the US....sometime over the next 3 - 5 years.....we may see the first month that has ZERO new record lows.

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-daily-record-high-temps-to_30.html

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-daily-high-temps-to.html
« Last Edit: February 23, 2017, 04:33:06 PM by Buddy »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1409 on: February 23, 2017, 04:14:48 PM »
Buddy, you are talking about Lows here, right?  Not Highs. ;)
Quote
Right now....in the US....so far in February, there have only been 19 New Record High Temperature records set in the whole US.....through 02/20. The fewest number of New Record Highs in the US for any full month is 52 back in Feb of 1992.  And there have only been a few individual months less than 100.
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Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1410 on: February 23, 2017, 04:31:32 PM »
Yes....my bad, thanks for catching that....I'll change that.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1411 on: February 23, 2017, 04:37:58 PM »
Quote
Buddy, you are talking about Lows here, right?  Not Highs. ;)

Corrected....thanks again ;D
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1412 on: February 24, 2017, 03:47:42 AM »
"According to the plants, spring is already here—more than 20 days early—for a huge swath of the Southeast.

June-like weather in February."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/834851340132118528
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1413 on: February 24, 2017, 02:35:52 PM »
Through the 23rd of Feb....we are now at 3,609 new record highs...and still 19 new record low temperatures in the US.  A ratio of 189 to 1. :o


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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1414 on: February 24, 2017, 04:42:38 PM »
Now....Feb still has 5 days to go....and the reason the graph looks so "off the charts" is primarily a function of the VERY LOW DENOMINATOR.  The graph shows the ratio of New Record Highs to New Record Lows for the last 13 months.  With only 19 new record lows...it makes the ratio look pretty bad.

There is also a fairly high amount of New Record Highs as well....about 3,600....but that is nowhere NEAR the record number in the US from March of 2012 which was above 10,000 New Record High Temperatures.

In the last 9 days there has only been ONE new record low in ALL the US....and that is in Alaska.  I would have to do some digging....but 9 days with only 1 new record low has to be some kind of record.  Even in 2012 during the record March in the US.....there were 325 New Record Low Temps that month.  The ratio that month was 32 to 1.....with 10,394 new record high temps.

The record for any month is 54 to 1 in January of 2006........going back to 1930.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2017, 04:51:26 PM by Buddy »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1415 on: February 24, 2017, 07:19:52 PM »
Today is the warmest February day in at least 145 years in Boston—since official recordkeeping began.
71°F [21.7°C] is the average Boston high on JUNE 1ST
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/835188406023905280

NWS Boston:  [OFFICIAL] It's over! The record for #Boston has been broken. ALL-TIME warmest temperature recorded for the month of February!
https://twitter.com/nwsboston/status/835179533124894720
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1416 on: February 24, 2017, 07:27:04 PM »
Record temperatures: At 1 PM, over a dozen U.S. cities have tied or broken their highest readings EVER IN FEBRUARY! http://coolwx.com/record/
https://twitter.com/accu_jesse/status/835190062790893568
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5to10

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1417 on: February 24, 2017, 07:36:16 PM »
"Congratulations Boston!"

Dear god...

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1418 on: February 24, 2017, 07:42:27 PM »
Temperatures up to 40 degF (22 degC) above normal today across the eastern U.S..
The warmest February day for 100+ years (since records begin).
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/835197141366657024

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5to10

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1419 on: February 24, 2017, 07:52:31 PM »
Temperatures up to 40 degF (22 degC) above normal today across the eastern U.S..
The warmest February day for 100+ years (since records begin).

If there were ever a more fitting time...


Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1420 on: February 26, 2017, 12:25:04 AM »
This line of thunderstorms extends all the way north into Canada. In February.
The day after the warmest February day in history for many.
https://twitter.com/growingwisdom/status/835574864337588224

Two tornado warnings in eastern Pennsylvania until 2:45pm. Fairly populated areas.
https://twitter.com/hrrrison/status/835572790916894720

Damaging storms in Berks County, Lehigh Valley knock down utility poles, knock out power to people throughout the area.
https://twitter.com/69news/status/835622333851254785

Andrew Freedman:  "This is not a typical radar image for Feb. 26."
https://twitter.com/afreedma/status/835608199545905152

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5to10

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1421 on: February 26, 2017, 12:59:29 PM »
It's snowing again after a 2-3 week interim.

Near Vancouver B.C., we rarely get snow here. This is by far the most snow I've ever seen in one season, in a stark contrast to the heat wave of the south. It was around -15 to -20 for some weeks here as well, unheard of really for this area. Not common. We were also nailed with the worst ice storm i've ever seen which caused major damage to trees.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1422 on: February 26, 2017, 04:42:28 PM »
It's snowing again after a 2-3 week interim.

Near Vancouver B.C., we rarely get snow here. This is by far the most snow I've ever seen in one season, in a stark contrast to the heat wave of the south. It was around -15 to -20 for some weeks here as well, unheard of really for this area. Not common. We were also nailed with the worst ice storm i've ever seen which caused major damage to trees.

there are alway, at any time cold spots and warm spots distributed around the globe and while their are weather patterns that often repeat and hence are responsible for "common weather conditions" in our times many of such patterns are getting unreliable or change entirely which leads to both, so many cold and hot records that appear out of the ordinary. in reality, for every cold spot with record cold you'll find a hot spot with record heat, just differently distributed.

i'm aware that i lack the proper education to explain this in proper scientific language but i hope the meaning is recognizable :-) else sorry and perhaps someone can do better.

DrTskoul

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1423 on: February 26, 2017, 06:02:09 PM »
It's snowing again after a 2-3 week interim.

Near Vancouver B.C., we rarely get snow here. This is by far the most snow I've ever seen in one season, in a stark contrast to the heat wave of the south. It was around -15 to -20 for some weeks here as well, unheard of really for this area. Not common. We were also nailed with the worst ice storm i've ever seen which caused major damage to trees.

there are alway, at any time cold spots and warm spots distributed around the globe and while their are weather patterns that often repeat and hence are responsible for "common weather conditions" in our times many of such patterns are getting unreliable or change entirely which leads to both, so many cold and hot records that appear out of the ordinary. in reality, for every cold spot with record cold you'll find a hot spot with record heat, just differently distributed.

i'm aware that i lack the proper education to explain this in proper scientific language but i hope the meaning is recognizable :-) else sorry and perhaps someone can do better.

Globally the "record cold" cold spots are decreasing....

TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1424 on: February 26, 2017, 07:28:45 PM »

Globally the "record cold" cold spots are decreasing....Drastically!!


I wonder if of 5 to 10's cold snap is related to the on again off again appearance of what at one time was known as the "ridiculously resilient ridge". The rather spectacular ending of Northern California's drought was due in part I believe to the demise of the ridge, and atypical cold further north might share this genesis.


While no one hopes for a continuation of California's drought, an atmospheric river stressing the dams isn't a wonderful alternative, especially if extreme cold to the north is part of that package.


Terry

magnamentis

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1425 on: February 26, 2017, 10:14:23 PM »
It's snowing again after a 2-3 week interim.

Near Vancouver B.C., we rarely get snow here. This is by far the most snow I've ever seen in one season, in a stark contrast to the heat wave of the south. It was around -15 to -20 for some weeks here as well, unheard of really for this area. Not common. We were also nailed with the worst ice storm i've ever seen which caused major damage to trees.

there are alway, at any time cold spots and warm spots distributed around the globe and while their are weather patterns that often repeat and hence are responsible for "common weather conditions" in our times many of such patterns are getting unreliable or change entirely which leads to both, so many cold and hot records that appear out of the ordinary. in reality, for every cold spot with record cold you'll find a hot spot with record heat, just differently distributed.

i'm aware that i lack the proper education to explain this in proper scientific language but i hope the meaning is recognizable :-) else sorry and perhaps someone can do better.

Globally the "record cold" cold spots are decreasing....

thanks, that's what i thought and would have liked to write, just didn't because i was not sure, not enough dug into those details, hence thanks for confirming/mentioning it.

magnamentis

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1426 on: February 26, 2017, 10:16:25 PM »

Globally the "record cold" cold spots are decreasing....Drastically!!


I wonder if of 5 to 10's cold snap is related to the on again off again appearance of what at one time was known as the "ridiculously resilient ridge". The rather spectacular ending of Northern California's drought was due in part I believe to the demise of the ridge, and atypical cold further north might share this genesis.


While no one hopes for a continuation of California's drought, an atmospheric river stressing the dams isn't a wonderful alternative, especially if extreme cold to the north is part of that package.


Terry

funny thing that i just once in month was checkin on my post count and when i was trying to find the value for the next level, one post above i found your post with EXACTLY 1'000 posts and "Upper Class" congrats, even though it's not important it's still nice and fun.

TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1427 on: February 27, 2017, 01:09:09 AM »

funny thing that i just once in month was checkin on my post count and when i was trying to find the value for the next level, one post above i found your post with EXACTLY 1'000 posts and "Upper Class" congrats, even though it's not important it's still nice and fun.


I'll be damned. I've never been terribly prolific, but even turtles eventually pass the marks.


Thanks for bringing it to my attention!
Terry

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1428 on: February 27, 2017, 11:17:35 AM »
I'm still getting used to being middle class!!! If this season pans out as I believe it will then magnamentis will have no probs becoming upper class!

Congrats to Terry too!!
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magnamentis

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1429 on: February 27, 2017, 06:05:13 PM »
I'm still getting used to being middle class!!! If this season pans out as I believe it will then magnamentis will have no probs becoming upper class!

Congrats to Terry too!!

hehe... i just hope that it did not come across as important to me, was just curious. even though i'm a convinced opponent to the never ending story of comparison, i have to admit that it's very hard to entirely get rid of those old habits and deep subconscious instincts LOL

enjoy furhter

cheers

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1430 on: February 27, 2017, 06:30:13 PM »
Congratulations, Terry!
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1431 on: February 27, 2017, 06:31:32 PM »
"Wild how far ahead spring is in [Washington] DC. Same tree on Feb 26 2017 & Apr 1 2014. Almost 5 weeks earlier this yr."
https://twitter.com/islivingston/status/836219801727008769

(To be fair, winter 2013/14 was Very, Very Cold in the northeast U.S.)
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be cause

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1432 on: February 27, 2017, 07:24:18 PM »
"Wild how far ahead spring is in [Washington] DC. Same tree on Feb 26 2017 & Apr 1 2014. Almost 5 weeks earlier this yr."


that would be the Trump effect ?
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1433 on: February 27, 2017, 07:58:56 PM »
 8) Welcome to the Trumpocene  8)
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1434 on: February 27, 2017, 09:50:58 PM »
"Wild how far ahead spring is in [Washington] DC. Same tree on Feb 26 2017 & Apr 1 2014. Almost 5 weeks earlier this yr."


that would be the Trump effect ?

What?! No snowballs for Lamar Smith ?
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1435 on: February 27, 2017, 11:39:34 PM »
"Wild how far ahead spring is in [Washington] DC. Same tree on Feb 26 2017 & Apr 1 2014. Almost 5 weeks earlier this yr."


that would be the Trump effect ?
I think you are deleting the last [/quote] at the end of the text when you quote. You should leave it there, press Enter and write after it. Your quotes will be clear and those quoting you will be clear too.

be cause

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1436 on: February 28, 2017, 01:07:28 AM »
Sorry .. I don't do much quoting :) . I have just been out .. starry night at the end of February in rural N. Ireland . As has been the norm this winter there is no hint of frost . In the past ,@ 80% of starry winter nights were frosty ... this year @ 20% .. it is a very noticable change . Spring is @ 2 weeks ahead here but grass never stopped growing all winter .. the countryside is green . It has been a pleasure living in my mobile home while all our weather has headed toward the Arctic . It is noticable that the flow north has stopped for the first time since last August .
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1437 on: February 28, 2017, 10:24:52 AM »
Just some graphics about the current winter drought we have here in Germany (of course nobody seems to get aware of and talks about).

Pretty scary those dark red colours-even in Februar. Just wonder what this summer would bring. Fortunately I live in a bright white area where some clouds are catched by the mountains...

Here is a link to the database-all seems to be under construction-the download options are pretty bad, had to cheat with some screenshots and to add the dates to the older images. :)

https://www.ufz.de/index.php?de=37937
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1438 on: February 28, 2017, 10:53:43 AM »
. It is noticable that the flow north has stopped for the first time since last August .

Could it really be that the basin has taken to late Feb to chill down to 'freezing Season' behaviours? If this is the fact of the matter then what will next winter be like across the basin?
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1439 on: February 28, 2017, 01:58:36 PM »
Looks like we may get a warm spring in the US.....reminiscent of 2012.

The first map is the new forecast for March.  The second one is March/April/May combined.  The warmth around Alaska is NOT going to be good for the ice....



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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1440 on: March 01, 2017, 06:04:25 AM »
11:00 pm Chicago. We are in the middle of our 3rd wave of thunderstorms today.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1441 on: March 01, 2017, 05:41:04 PM »
Quote
Pretty scary those dark red colours-even in Februar. Just wonder what this summer would bring. Fortunately I live in a bright white area where some clouds are catched by the mountains...

Northern Europe.....a good chunk of western Russia.....Canada.....all warming.  How do you say "not good" in German?  Nicht gut
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1442 on: March 01, 2017, 06:20:21 PM »
Quote
Pretty scary those dark red colours-even in Februar. Just wonder what this summer would bring. Fortunately I live in a bright white area where some clouds are catched by the mountains...

Northern Europe.....a good chunk of western Russia.....Canada.....all warming.  How do you say "not good" in German?  Nicht gut

absolut korrekt, nicht gut oder wenn's ganz schlimm ist "gar nicht gut"

absolutely correct, "nicht gut" or if things get really bad one can say "gar nicht gut"

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1443 on: March 01, 2017, 07:54:23 PM »
"This is basically a year 2100 sort of spring that we're seeing this year."

Early bird special: Spring pops up super early in much of US
Quote
...The unseasonably warm weather has the natural world getting ahead of — even defying — the calendar, scientists said Tuesday.

In cities like Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Columbus, Ohio, spring has arrived about a month earlier than the 30-year average and about 20 days earlier than in 2012, which was the earliest spring on record....
http://bigstory.ap.org/article/396b37a877cb45dea91c5c56144b497b/early-bird-special-spring-pops-super-early-much-us
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1444 on: March 01, 2017, 08:02:32 PM »
Massive Permafrost Thaw Documented in Canada, Portends Huge Carbon Release
Study shows 52,000 square miles in rapid decline, with sediment and carbon threatening the surrounding environment and potentially accelerating global warming.
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Huge slabs of Arctic permafrost in northwest Canada are slumping and disintegrating, sending large amounts of carbon-rich mud and silt into streams and rivers. A new study that analyzed nearly a half-million square miles in northwest Canada found that this permafrost decay is affecting 52,000 square miles of that vast stretch of earth—an expanse the size of Alabama.

According to researchers with the Northwest Territories Geological Survey, the permafrost collapse is intensifying and causing landslides into rivers and lakes that can choke off life downstream, all the way to where the rivers discharge into the Pacific Ocean.

Similar large-scale landscape changes are evident across the Arctic including in Alaska, Siberia and Scandinavia, the researchers wrote in a paper published in the journal Geology in early February. The study didn't address the issue of greenhouse gas releases from thawing permafrost. But its findings could help quantify the immense global scale of the thawing, which will contribute to more accurate estimates of carbon emissions....
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/27022017/global-warming-permafrost-study-melt-canada-siberia
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Niall Dollard

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1445 on: March 01, 2017, 08:19:17 PM »
11:00 pm Chicago. We are in the middle of our 3rd wave of thunderstorms today.

Remarkable weather you are having. For the first time in recorded history (back 146 years), Chicago has had no measurable snowfall in the months of January and February.

https://www.timeout.com/chicago/blog/for-the-first-time-chicago-experienced-a-snowless-january-and-february-022817

nicibiene

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“We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them.” –“Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow. The important thing is not to stop questioning.” Albert Einstein

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1447 on: March 02, 2017, 03:27:24 PM »
The early warmth makes fruit growers tremble:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-01/record-warmth-could-turn-into-a-disaster-for-u-s-fruit-growers

Yep. Several seasons ago, Michigan growers lost 80% of their peach harvest due to unseasonably warm February weather which caused early blossoms and which was followed by a hard freeze.

Oddmonk

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1448 on: March 02, 2017, 05:38:01 PM »
The early warmth makes fruit growers tremble:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-01/record-warmth-could-turn-into-a-disaster-for-u-s-fruit-growers

Yep. Several seasons ago, Michigan growers lost 80% of their peach harvest due to unseasonably warm February weather which caused early blossoms and which was followed by a hard freeze.

This will be a telling year in agriculture. The price of food may soon begin to reflect its cost in carbon.

icefisher

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1449 on: March 03, 2017, 02:26:01 AM »
St. Louis Missouri USA February average temperature sets all time warmest record by more than 3 degrees Fahrenheit.   Hummingbirds have already returned -- two months early.  Hope they survive!  Tree pollens and mold spore counts are making life miserable in addition to the severe flu season this year.  Rising evapotranspiration rates coupled with low precipitation since January 1, 2017 are beginning to stress shallow rooted plants.  I get depressed thinking about the remainder of 2017.