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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 1198512 times)

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1600 on: October 26, 2017, 05:20:01 PM »
 :)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1601 on: October 26, 2017, 06:14:17 PM »
I bought a "carving pumpkin" a couple days ago and have been watching it.  So far, it hasn't carved anything.   :P

We're have unseasonably cool weather in Tallahassee, Florida, USA right now.  (57ºF yesterday vs. 66ºF average ).  I adore it!  (But I'm from cooler regions.  My friends from Miami aren't pleased.)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1602 on: October 26, 2017, 06:59:20 PM »
I suppose, in the interest of reducing waste, it should be living cacti -- decorated or grown into appropriate shapes, and reused each year....
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TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1603 on: October 27, 2017, 02:57:38 AM »
I took a long walk today through a forested region beside our river. No insects, 2 ducks, but no other birds, and shirtsleeve weather near the end of October in Canada.


Hope the birds have migrated & the insects are hibernating? The Monsanto corn is nearing the end of it's season, so all is well on the farms.


Terry

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1604 on: October 27, 2017, 03:13:11 AM »
October 26, and widespread 40s in Fairbanks-land & 50s in Anchorage-land. What's the world coming to…#akwx @Climatologist49 @DaveSnider
     https://twitter.com/AlaskaWx/status/923707648435879937
Image below.

The 51°F at Anchorage is an Anchorage Intl AP record. It was 56°F on this date in 1936 when the climate site was downtown (Ship Creek). akwx
     https://twitter.com/Climatologist49/status/923708630167195648
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Daniel B.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1605 on: October 27, 2017, 01:58:32 PM »
Meanwhile, down in Houston there are expecting temperatures to fall into the 30s this weekend, which would break the record low of 42F on Sunday.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1606 on: October 29, 2017, 04:43:45 PM »
Fall foliage season begins in the 3rd week of September in northern Illinois with peak color in the 2nd week of October. We are at the end of October and the trees in my neighborhood are still bright green.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1607 on: October 31, 2017, 09:07:35 PM »
Quote
Places in New England that have seen the warmest first 2 months of fall on record:

Everyone
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/925398967717974016
Image below.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1608 on: November 01, 2017, 02:39:55 PM »
The three linked articles all discuss recent research findings about atmospheric river events.  The first reference finds that global warming will increase the intensity of atmospheric river events along the U.S. West Coast:

Title: "70-year record shows long-term trend in atmospheric river activity along U.S. West Coast"

http://blogs.agu.org/geospace/2017/08/03/70-year-record-shows-long-term-trend-atmospheric-river-activity-along-u-s-west-coast/

Extract: "The researchers found warmer oceans are associated with more intense atmospheric river activity, which leads to more extreme precipitation. Sea surface temperatures worldwide have increased by about 1 degree Fahrenheit (about 0.5 degrees Celsius) since the late 1940s as a result of climate change, and the Pacific Ocean has been warming at the same pace. Previous research has shown the warmer sea surface temperature patterns highlighted by this study are a result of global warming from human activity.

The authors also used the longer record to tease out other patterns in atmospheric river activity. Previous records of atmospheric river activity along the West coast extended only to the 1970s and only captured one complete phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a natural climate pattern with warm and cool phases appearing to last 20-30 years based on the current record.

Along with other patterns of climate variation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) has been shown by the new study to strongly affect atmospheric river activity. The effect of the PDO on atmospheric rivers is so far much larger than the effect of gradually warming oceans due to human activity, according to the new study."

&

Title: "NASA estimates the global reach of atmospheric rivers"
https://phys.org/news/2017-11-nasa-global-atmospheric-rivers.html

Extract: "A recent study by NASA and several partners has estimated, for the first time, the global impact of atmospheric rivers on floods and droughts, as well as the number of people affected by these atmospheric phenomena. "

&

Title: "Research Roundup: Atmospheric Rivers”

https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/blogs/earthmatters/2017/10/27/research-roundup-atmospheric-rivers/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1609 on: November 08, 2017, 05:32:40 PM »
- Just in: Six Northeast states had the warmest October on record this year.
- Year-to-date, dozens of U.S. cities from Arizona to Pennsylvania are having their hottest year on record.
- Year-to-date, just one U.S. city — Pendleton, Oregon — is cooler than average in 2017.
- Every single state is warmer than normal so far in 2017.
But it’s probably a coincidence.

https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/928292742698098694
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gerontocrat

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1610 on: November 10, 2017, 03:22:31 PM »
- Just in: Six Northeast states had the warmest October on record this year.
- Year-to-date, dozens of U.S. cities from Arizona to Pennsylvania are having their hottest year on record.
- Year-to-date, just one U.S. city — Pendleton, Oregon — is cooler than average in 2017.
- Every single state is warmer than normal so far in 2017.
But it’s probably a coincidence.

Meanwhile, since mid-June the jet stream has done the UK no favours at all, at all. But then again, they do say that the UK has the best summer in the world - you just have to be here on the one day it happens.
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Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1611 on: November 17, 2017, 06:05:24 PM »
Well we have a 'Medicane' just south of Italy at the mo.
Greece has taken some serious flooding already with more storms floating around the core. Shear should become an issue later tomorrow but a.t.m. a healthy looking storm!
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1612 on: November 28, 2017, 02:10:51 AM »
A beautiful sunny Spring day in Chicago today as temperatures climbed to a balmy 57F. Tomorrow's high will be 56F but it will be rainy.

Forecasts through Monday, December 4 call for highs around 50F.

This...is...insane.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1613 on: November 28, 2017, 05:05:55 PM »
A beautiful sunny Spring day in Chicago today as temperatures climbed to a balmy 57F. Tomorrow's high will be 56F but it will be rainy.

Forecasts through Monday, December 4 call for highs around 50F.

This...is...insane.

Just for reference (since I looked it up :) ) the average Chicago high temperature on Dec 4 is 42°F (5.6°C).
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werther

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1615 on: November 29, 2017, 07:26:11 PM »
Up till now, Siberia hasn't had any exceptional cold:


featuring daily max temp anomaly through november up to yesterday.

Doesn't mean winter over there will remain on the 'warm' side. But the average does have an impact. And it's a big lag up to now.

In the Bering region it's even more pronounced. That's what has kept the Chukchi Sea open for a long time.

Reallybigbunny

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« Last Edit: November 30, 2017, 10:27:11 AM by Reallybigbunny »

Daniel B.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1617 on: November 30, 2017, 02:28:55 PM »
Up till now, Siberia hasn't had any exceptional cold:


featuring daily max temp anomaly through november up to yesterday.

Doesn't mean winter over there will remain on the 'warm' side. But the average does have an impact. And it's a big lag up to now.

In the Bering region it's even more pronounced. That's what has kept the Chukchi Sea open for a long time.

I guess that depends on whether you consider 10C below average to be exceptionally cold.  Thus far, the temperatures have been colder than normal, with significant snowfall.  This weather pattern is expected to make its way over the central US next week.  Not that we can expect temperatures near -40, but expectations are for ~5-10C below normal for this time of year.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1618 on: December 01, 2017, 12:14:43 AM »
Compare Australia’s weather at the moment (see above) with Texas this year....

La Niña means drought is now expanding in Texas, even though we're just three months after Hurricane Harvey's record-setting rainfall.
Yes, this will be Houston's rainiest year in history. Yes, they'll probably end the year in a drought.
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/936335040090443783
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1619 on: December 01, 2017, 10:29:00 PM »
“It's December.
America is virtually snow-free.
Record high temperatures are outpacing record lows 100-to-1.
The seasons themselves are confused.
Where's winter?”
    https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/936648301625135104

WHAT HAPPENED TO WINTER?
December is here, but warm temperatures are setting records nationwide.
Quote
A coast-to-coast holiday heat wave means that, on Thursday, the last day of November, just 7.6 percent of the country was snow-covered, about one-third of the typical value over the past 15 years. Over the past seven days, 1,550 record high temperatures have been set across the country compared with just 15 record lows, a 100 to one clip. Nearly every corner of the country is warmer than normal.

In parts of the West, it's actually T-shirt weather: Temperatures in the Rockies, for example, are more typical of mid-June than late-November. On Monday, Denver reached 81 degrees—some 34 degrees above normal and warmer than Los Angeles, Houston, or Tampa, Florida—the warmest temperature ever recorded there during the month of November. On the same day, it was so unusually warm in Salt Lake City that the city broke its record high—at 2:20 a.m. Tucson, Arizona, set record highs all four days of the long Thanksgiving weekend, peaking at 92 degrees on Sunday—the highest reading ever measured there so late in the year.
...
The warm weather isn't just confined to the U.S. Parts of Australia, China, and the Arctic are all experiencing similarly intense heat waves. In Greenland, temperatures on Thursday are a whopping 36 degrees above normal.
https://psmag.com/environment/why-is-winter-suddenly-so-warm
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TerryM

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1620 on: December 01, 2017, 10:47:42 PM »
It's tee shirt weather here in SW Ontario, but the green leaves have turned. Pleasant fall weather.
Terry

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1621 on: December 02, 2017, 03:06:29 PM »
Enjoy it now.  The temps are expected to fall dramatically next week, when the cold air, that has been stationed over Siberia, makes it way over.  Forecast highs are below freezing for most of December.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1622 on: December 02, 2017, 04:37:19 PM »
It's tee shirt weather here in SW Ontario, but the green leaves have turned. Pleasant fall weather.
Terry

Trees in Chicago have finally had a substantial leaf drop in the past week, much later than normal.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1623 on: December 02, 2017, 10:18:55 PM »
Last hurrah of 10 degrees centigrade on Tuesday here in SW Ontario, then chilly for the next couple of weeks. The squirrels are hyperactive right now.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1624 on: December 03, 2017, 01:30:13 PM »
Last hurrah of 10 degrees centigrade on Tuesday here in SW Ontario, then chilly for the next couple of weeks. The squirrels are hyperactive right now.
Looking similar here in Michigan.  Getting everything done outside this weekend.  The ski resorts are antsy for the cold and snow to reopen.  Everything was open early this year, but they had to close back up.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1625 on: December 03, 2017, 03:32:01 PM »
55F and sunny in Chicago today. High of 61 and rain forecast for tomorrow. It is then supposed to get cold with highs in the low 30's but this is similar to a forecast for last week when rain was supposed to usher in colder weather. The rain never happened and temps continued to climb into the high 40's and low 50's throughout the week. Last weeks forecast predicted highs in the low 30's today.

I'll wait and see.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1626 on: December 03, 2017, 05:45:02 PM »
Winters have been slow to start here in Ottawa for the last bunch of years. As a result there has been a move to installing refrigerated outdoor skating rinks in  public places like in front of city hall. This year they've only managed to get one of them up and running by this week. The days of skating on the Rideau Canal in December seem long gone.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1627 on: December 04, 2017, 12:56:41 AM »
Australia rain event:

Here are some 3 day totals for this weekend's rain event in #Victoria. The North East and North Central districts generally recorded the heaviest falls, but the highest total for this event was Mount St Leonard with a whopping 228.4mm [9 inches].
https://twitter.com/bom_vic/status/937193746772430853

Maps and data at the link.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1628 on: December 04, 2017, 02:09:37 PM »
Looks like just another December day in the Anthropocene in Minnesota [today]:
✓New record high, 26 degrees warmer than normal
✓Thunderstorms
✓Massive cold front
✓17°F by nightfall ...
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/937548014855643136
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1629 on: December 04, 2017, 02:16:20 PM »
This is brutal. Not a drop of rain is forecast for southern California through at least December 20th.
It's the rainy season there—in name only at the moment.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/937617863501930496

Wow. That's an incredibly dry 16-day precipitation accumulation forecast for December along the West Coast! Ensembles & ECMWF very similar. #CAwx #ORwx #WAwx #BCwx
     https://twitter.com/weather_west/status/937572873429909504
     Image below.



This week in Southern California, "extreme fire danger" edition:

Temperatures in the 80s
Hurricane force wind gusts
Relative humidity less than 10%
"Potential for very rapid fire growth"

It's December, y'all.
     https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/937619214743097344
     Second image below.
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1630 on: December 05, 2017, 01:45:20 AM »
62F in Chicago at 7 pm with thunderstorms and possible hail rolling in. Yesterday, they forecast a high for tomorrow of 31F. Now the forecast is 41F. The low is tracking much further north than expected. Winds are ridiculous.

It is December for God's sake! 62F!

Daniel B.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1631 on: December 05, 2017, 03:38:47 AM »
Fear not.  Tomorrow it will start to feel like December, and look like it for the foreseeable future.  By the way, 62 is not even a record.

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« Last Edit: December 05, 2017, 08:16:57 AM by Bruce Steele »

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1633 on: December 05, 2017, 08:34:21 AM »
OK probably  the 10,000 acre fire between Ojai and Santa Paula. Big Santa Ana winds tonight with years of drought. Fires are expected I suppose.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1634 on: December 09, 2017, 03:11:22 AM »
Houston just received its first measurable snowfall in almost eight years.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1635 on: December 09, 2017, 03:53:28 AM »
Houston just received its first measurable snowfall in almost eight years.
Houston is ahead of us here in Cambridge Ontario Canada, but it is finally cooling off.
Hope those who were affected by the Texas hurricanes have been able to prepare for the cold.
Terry

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1636 on: December 09, 2017, 04:20:52 PM »
Houston just received its first measurable snowfall in almost eight years.
Houston is ahead of us here in Cambridge Ontario Canada, but it is finally cooling off.
Hope those who were affected by the Texas hurricanes have been able to prepare for the cold.
Terry
Unlikely.  Most of these southern cities just close down, until the temperatures rise, and the snow melts.  Richmond is effectively closed today.  I suspect you awoke to a dusty today, as I did.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1637 on: December 09, 2017, 08:48:53 PM »
Unlikely.  Most of these southern cities just close down, until the temperatures rise, and the snow melts.  Richmond is effectively closed today.  I suspect you awoke to a dusty today, as I did.


Still not a flake in sight. A neighbor is having his roof replaced, not normally a job for snowy times.
Terry

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1638 on: December 09, 2017, 09:01:22 PM »
Unlikely.  Most of these southern cities just close down, until the temperatures rise, and the snow melts.  Richmond is effectively closed today.  I suspect you awoke to a dusty today, as I did.


Still not a flake in sight. A neighbor is having his roof replaced, not normally a job for snowy times.
Terry

Surprising, considering that you are not that from far me, and our landscape is completely covered.  Not very deep mind you, but enough for a quick shoveling job.  I would not recommend replacing a roof in this weather.  Most shingles required thd gear from the sun, in order to meld together.  Hopefully, they will not encounter leakage.  Perhaps they got a discount this time of year.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1639 on: December 10, 2017, 10:27:09 AM »
Yea
The roof job, and the lack of snow surprise me.
A dinner in KW on the 10th just got cancelled so I'll probably wait until snow finally shows up here.


I'm originally from Blair, and I don't believe we're the only locals on this site.
Terry
edit - Just checked your profile. Thought you might have been from Toronto or Kitchener Waterloo. My bad.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1640 on: December 10, 2017, 09:01:16 PM »
So I here that Western Europe is getting a lot of snow, and the SE US just got hit by a major, unusual snow storm. Meanwhile, it's of course very dry and hot in CA and it looks like those conditions will continue for a while.

Is this all part of a 'stuck' and very loopy jetwave pattern. Is it all connected? Thoughts?
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1641 on: December 10, 2017, 10:37:12 PM »
My understanding is that odd-numbered jet stream loop patterns, like we have currently, are particularly stable.  Doesn’t look like much change for the immediate future.

Images: the atmosphere...
From top to bottom:  10, 250 and 500hPa
And the 6-10 day outlook at the surface (of North America).

https://mobile.twitter.com/weatheroptics/status/939953574955618304

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/938497976250568706

https://mobile.twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/938485913935544321

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1642 on: December 11, 2017, 03:33:37 AM »
Alaska just reported one of the most extreme snowfall rates on record: 10 inches [254 mm] per hour
Quote
Imagine going into a movie theater to check out the latest science fiction flick and there is not a single flake of snow on the ground. A couple hours later, as the credits start to roll, you mosey outside and are stunned to find your car buried in more than a foot of snow.

Perhaps you’d wonder if you were still watching a movie.

Well that’s kind of what happened Wednesday at Alaska’s Thompson Pass, just outside of the town of Valdez, when an incredible 10 inches of snow piled up in one hour — around 1.7 inches every 10 minutes. This is an absolutely incredible snowfall rate. ...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/12/07/alaska-just-reported-one-of-the-most-extreme-snowfall-rates-on-record-10-inches-per-hour/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1643 on: December 12, 2017, 12:01:44 AM »
Amazingly dry pattern for the next 10 days lower 48- just about everyone below normal precip. From bad to worse out west
    https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx/status/940317467339083781
Image below.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1644 on: December 12, 2017, 08:25:40 PM »
The temperature in Barrow, Alaska, is warming so fast, quality-control algorithms straight up removed the data because it seemed so unreal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/12/12/barrow-is-warming-so-fast-algorithms-removed-the-data-because-it-seemed-unreal/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1645 on: December 21, 2017, 05:11:27 PM »
“A shorter snow season increases the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth’s surface and can further warm the planet.”
GIF at this Twitter link: https://twitter.com/wxshift/status/943861210369462273

Article and interactive graph:  http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/snow-cover
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1646 on: December 21, 2017, 06:00:57 PM »
Frozen rivers are winter highways of western Alaska, so cold weather is a must for safe travel. At Bethel the total freezing degrees days thru Dec 19 (a measure of accumulated cold) is only 36% of average and is the lowest of any winter since 1925. #akwx @Climatologist49
     https://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/943709875225243649
Image below.
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Daniel B.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1647 on: December 21, 2017, 06:50:16 PM »
“A shorter snow season increases the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth’s surface and can further warm the planet.”
GIF at this Twitter link: https://twitter.com/wxshift/status/943861210369462273

Article and interactive graph:  http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/snow-cover

As does clearing of the fallen snow.  Black roads, parking lots, rooftops, etc. absorb sunlight that would have normally been reflected.

Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1648 on: December 22, 2017, 04:35:48 AM »
“A shorter snow season increases the amount of sunlight absorbed by the Earth’s surface and can further warm the planet.”
GIF at this Twitter link: https://twitter.com/wxshift/status/943861210369462273

Article and interactive graph:  http://wxshift.com/climate-change/climate-indicators/snow-cover

As does clearing of the fallen snow.  Black roads, parking lots, rooftops, etc. absorb sunlight that would have normally been reflected.

Sigmetnow posts a chart that shows that summer snow cover in the northern hemisphere has dropped by 50% or 4 million square miles in the last 40 years which is dramatically increasing the amount of sunlight absorbed and you decide to talk about plowing snow having the same effect??

Now I know why I set you on ignore and how it is a mistake to click to see what you say.

Susan Anderson

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1649 on: December 22, 2017, 05:34:03 AM »
I don't think urban degradation is entirely irrelevant, bearing in mind that we've been busy "paving over paradise". You can look at some of the satellite maps of urban lights to get a sense of the scale of urban and suburban warming's potential contribution. Certainly Boston is a good 5-10 degrees warmer than further inland (though mostly because of the ocean nearby) in winter (and vice versa in summer). But it is way south to discuss in the context of the Arctic and Antarctic.

We also steadily increase the amount of melting chemicals every year which has to have a range of unintended consequences.

Given the topic is anecdotal stories, I'd also mention the greatly diminished numbers of birds, butterflies, moths, bees, and other insects everywhere I go. Once again, northeast US (Boston-Princeton, 290 miles).