Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 1198378 times)

Martin Gisser

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1800 on: February 09, 2018, 09:50:10 PM »
Here's an article with nice pictures when the snow hit first time:
https://www.moroccoworldnews.com/2018/01/239497/zagoura-ouarzazate-taroudant-snow/

Alexander555

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1801 on: February 09, 2018, 10:43:21 PM »
Probably the thick layers are only local, but still it's plenty snow for a place that normaly don't has snow.

Bernard

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 148
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 23
  • Likes Given: 24
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1802 on: February 09, 2018, 11:42:07 PM »
That is a lot of snow indeed. But snow is not unusual in Morocco mountains. One of the places quoted in the article, Ifrane (elev > 1600m) is a famous ski resort, with average yearly precipitations (falling mainly in winter) over 1,100 mm, more than in my France Southern Alps.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ifrane#Climate
Which is indeed exceptional is snow further South, on the other side of the Atlas mountains, in places such as Ouarzazate, "the door of the desert".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ouarzazate#Climate

SteveMDFP

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2476
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 583
  • Likes Given: 42
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1803 on: February 10, 2018, 02:26:44 AM »

Hullo Sleepy,

Once upon a time I had a book - "The Sea Around Us" by Rachel Carson (yes - her of "Silent Spring" written as she was dying), published 1951. In it is an entire chapter on retreat of Arctic Sea Ice, and references going back a good many years to ice-free days in Norwegian harbours (no ice- breakers back then).

It even has theories about the cause - not Global warming.

This wonderful book I lent out and saw it no more. But by golly and by gosh, it is a wonderful read.

If you can utilize a US online retailer, a replacement copy seems fairly affordable:
http://booksamillion.com/search?id=7181978532705&query=%22%22The+Sea+Around+Us%22++%22Rachel+Carson%22
But it was a first edition - weep!

Even a first edition can be replaced, though not as economically:
https://www.etsy.com/listing/122145634/rachel-carson-the-sea-around-us-1st

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1804 on: February 10, 2018, 02:03:19 PM »
The present SSW provides more "global cooling" to annoy someone in NA, we are left with this.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1805 on: February 10, 2018, 06:46:17 PM »
Chicago has just experienced a delightful foot of snow, falling over a period of 24 hours. Reminiscent  of winters past.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1806 on: February 13, 2018, 07:15:21 PM »
Feb 12, Florida.
“The low temperature at Key West was 76°F again this morning, on track to set a new daily record for the warm minimum! The current record of 75° was most recently set in 2013. Normal lows for this time of year are in the mid 60s.

NWS Key West sunset view!
#FLwx #FLKeys #KeyWest ”
https://twitter.com/nwskeywest/status/963222817071337472
Sunset photo at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1807 on: February 13, 2018, 07:25:43 PM »
Svalbard Airport temps.
“Remarkable warmth (relative to average) in the Atlantic-side of the #Arctic Ocean during the last 30-days ---> mean temperatures were 11.9°C above average at Longyearbyen, Svalbard!

[Climate stats from @Meteorologene at https://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Longyearbyen/statistics.html ]
https://twitter.com/ZLabe/status/963162589118132224
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1808 on: February 13, 2018, 10:10:53 PM »
The image below from cci-reanalyzer suggests what may happen by 21 Feb (a bit of a way out, I know).

But if it happens (the SSW effect?) it will be a bit chilly across large parts of the USA, and warm as toast in the Bering Strait.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1809 on: February 14, 2018, 01:41:35 PM »
SSW yes. From last week a hindcast of ECMWF 20mb;
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2141.msg141274.html#msg141274
and forecast of 20mb and zonal mean winds:
https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,2141.msg141326.html#msg141326

Attaching ECMWF forecast for 850mb and temp. Click on it to animate.

Southern Scandinavia might miss out on all of that fun. Also adding the last four days for Sweden.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Alexander555

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2503
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 185
  • Likes Given: 49
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1810 on: February 14, 2018, 06:17:50 PM »

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1811 on: February 15, 2018, 09:36:00 PM »
Polar vortex split!

“Likely to put Western Europe and much of Eurasia into the deep freeze for the rest of February”

The polar vortex just split in two. Get ready for some wild weather from Europe to the U.S.
https://mashable.com/2018/02/15/polar-vortex-split-stratospheric-warming-snow-cold-europe-us
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1812 on: February 20, 2018, 03:13:13 PM »

UK cold snap to come
A measured response from the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/feb/19/sudden-stratospheric-warming-set-to-bring-lengthy-cold-snap-to-uk

Quote
Britain will be gripped by a potentially lengthy cold snap as sudden stratospheric warming looks poised to cause temperatures to tumble.

Forecasters have warned that the meteorological event has disturbed the jet stream – allowing chilly winds from eastern Europe to blast the UK – and could last well into March.

And a typical report from one of our yellow press - The Daily Express

Quote
UK cold weather charts SHOCK:
GFS models show temperature plunge NEXT WEEK


This raises fears that freezing weather could unleash transportation chaos and grind parts of the country to a standstill before the end of this month.

In the latest Met Office’s latest forecast map they predict "Russian air" blanketing Britain throughout this week
.

Damn Russkie air!

And a lurid image to boot. (Trouble is, this time they might be right. It does happen, not often, but once in a while.)
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1813 on: February 20, 2018, 03:53:50 PM »
Colder temps for lower latitudes has been on the horizon for two weeks now. Initally the forecasts indicated that we in northern Europe would not be affected but now it looks like we will be. Either we have the heat, or the Arctic.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

ivica

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1475
  • Kelele
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 99
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1814 on: February 20, 2018, 11:22:30 PM »
severe-weather.EU @severeweatherEU 3h3 hours ago

Quote
Looking  ahead at Sunday-Wednesday (Feb 25th - 28th) period when the arctic  outbreak will be in the mature stage over our continent. Confidence is  good that based on various models we will be experiencing a very cold  period for the end of February. Maps: @PivotalWeather



I can't call winter what I've had so far, now it comes. Last 2 years were bad for fruits, late frost. What this one brings to me...

<this thread may be better fit for it then Gardening, i think>

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1815 on: February 21, 2018, 04:59:04 PM »
“Tuesday has been the warmest day ever recorded in the month of February for several cities in the eastern US, including:
Muncie, IN: 76F [24.4°C]
Zanesville, OH: 77F
Pittsburgh: 78F
Clarksburg, WV: 79F
Tampa, FL: 89F [31.7°C]”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/966080438480592901

“The warmest February morning on record? .... is practically everywhere in the East [U.S.].”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/966288447836180480
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1816 on: February 21, 2018, 05:05:44 PM »
“Cape Morris Jesup, Greenland, the northernmost weather station in the world, was above freezing yesterday.  In February.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/966290679935721472
Image below.

“What's going on in the Arctic right now just isn't normal (or at least it didn't used to be)”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/966064260660031488
Freaky GIF of arctic temperature anomalies at the link.

It’s Bizarrely Warm at the Northernmost Land Weather Station
https://earther.com/it-s-bizarrely-warm-at-the-northernmost-land-weather-st-1823153892/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1817 on: February 21, 2018, 05:22:36 PM »
I can't call winter what I've had so far, now it comes. Last 2 years were bad for fruits, late frost. What this one brings to me...
Then you might have colder than me, or the northernmost part of Greenland.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1818 on: February 21, 2018, 07:31:29 PM »
Latitude 42.89°N

“Wow, 77° in Vermont right now.
A reminder, it’s February. ”
https://mobile.twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/966376532133457921
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1819 on: February 21, 2018, 07:39:57 PM »
Latitude 42.89°N

“Wow, 77° in Vermont right now.
A reminder, it’s February. ”


I am at 52 N, 2 West. My comment is unprintable.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1820 on: February 21, 2018, 07:41:28 PM »
Already hit 75F to set new February record in Central Park... probably going to be warmest February as well...

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2507
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 923
  • Likes Given: 225
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1821 on: February 21, 2018, 08:39:15 PM »
Already hit 75F to set new February record in Central Park... probably going to be warmest February as well...

and it will be near zero Fahrenheit in Central Europe, the coldest end of a February I remember...

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1822 on: February 21, 2018, 08:41:00 PM »
Already hit 75F to set new February record in Central Park... probably going to be warmest February as well...

and it will be near zero Fahrenheit in Central Europe, the coldest end of a February I remember...
Indeed -- I believe the heat pulse from the SE Ridge into Greenland is responsible for your current cold weather, and we are going to see continued pulses/eventual transition to massive sustained +500MB ridging over Greenland and Quebec, and a possible blizzard/cold spell here as well (IMO!)

Central Europe is going to see feet and feet of snow... it is going to be remarkable!

El Cid

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2507
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 923
  • Likes Given: 225
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1823 on: February 21, 2018, 09:56:24 PM »
Already hit 75F to set new February record in Central Park... probably going to be warmest February as well...



Central Europe is going to see feet and feet of snow... it is going to be remarkable!

Thanks a lot, we already have more than enough snow  :)

magnamentis

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1824 on: February 21, 2018, 11:01:52 PM »
Already hit 75F to set new February record in Central Park... probably going to be warmest February as well...

and it will be near zero Fahrenheit in Central Europe, the coldest end of a February I remember...

then you're either young or.... LOL, i remember -28 about 20 years ago or let's say munich is now -1 and record is -20C for the 21st of february, don't believe the hypsters from the media, it's just cold and was warm in janaary and already everyone is whining about arctic temps (-1 munich) is only an example, it's definitely far from record low temps in central europe and i've been living and travelling arond there for 40 years before moving east west and south LOL

just choose any middle european city on the temperature map and google it's record low for the day. the above examples applies quasi accross the board with very few exceptions and they're also not on record low just a tiny bit closer than 19C
« Last Edit: February 21, 2018, 11:08:21 PM by magnamentis »

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1825 on: February 22, 2018, 01:05:48 AM »
“This is super nerdy, but a testament to the truly weird weather pattern happening today across eastern North America.
595 dm heights = unusually high even for mid-summer.
It’s sort of like seeing a snowstorm in July. Completely out of character for the atmosphere.”
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/966443919306354688

“My plot doesn't do it justice but the 595 dm "heat" ridge along the US Eastern Seaboard is in my opinion one of the most impressive weather records that I can ever recall in my lifetime. It takes incredibly warm air through the entire atmospheric column to support this feature.”
https://twitter.com/judah47/status/966422929377554432
Image below.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1826 on: February 24, 2018, 09:49:55 AM »
I almost forgot, (SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) declared spring in the southernmost parts of Sweden on Wednesday.
Blue=Winter, light green=Spring temps (daily mean above 0°C), green=Spring conditions wich is daily mean temps above 0°C for at least seven days straight, starting earliest on February 15.
« Last Edit: February 24, 2018, 09:57:13 AM by Sleepy »
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1827 on: February 24, 2018, 04:42:57 PM »
 :o

What should you do if you are threatened by a tornado and flash flooding at the same time?

Where do you go? Do you climb to your roof or into the basement?  Which threat takes priority?

https://weather.com/storms/severe/news/2018-02-22-tornado-flash-flood-warning-action


The answer, of course, is: “It depends.”  But mobile homes and low-lying ditches are a definite No.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Susan Anderson

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 527
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 40
  • Likes Given: 279
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1828 on: February 24, 2018, 07:23:45 PM »
Report from the trenches (southern Illinois) say waters were already higher than living memory, before the recent continuing rains. Lots of that kind of thing here there and everywhere. For those interested, Jeff Masters Wunderground blog - and especially comments - provides regular expert evidence from around the world. This on the flooding:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/record-atmospheric-moisture-feeding-central-us-flooding
[or back off to https://www.wunderground.com/cat6

For those seeking evaluation and accumulations of evidence, including cost summaries of worldwide climate/weather extremes, it's hard to beat.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1829 on: February 24, 2018, 08:25:16 PM »
:o

What should you do if you are threatened by a tornado and flash flooding at the same time?

Where do you go? Do you climb to your roof or into the basement?  Which threat takes priority?



gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1830 on: February 24, 2018, 08:52:38 PM »
I almost forgot, (SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) declared spring in the southernmost parts of Sweden on Wednesday.
Blue=Winter, light green=Spring temps (daily mean above 0°C), green=Spring conditions wich is daily mean temps above 0°C for at least seven days straight, starting earliest on February 15.
I've just looked at cci-reanalyzer to see what misery awaits us in the UK for the next 10 days.
Has your SMHI just got hold of the latest super-strong stuff from Amsterdam?
"You gotta be joking, man".
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1831 on: February 25, 2018, 09:24:17 AM »
Unfortunately gerontocrat, if there's any group of people on this planet that is boringly down to earth and fastidious, it's those guys.
Further, it's not unusual that the southern parts go directly from autumn to spring nowadays.

Going a bit north.
The lowest recorded temperature for Stockholm in February is -30°C, that one is from 1805.
Yes, 213 years ago...
Adding an old ensemble for Stockholm from 20180208 and also from yesterday 20180224.
That pretty much depicts this years winter, so bye bye now. Embrace eternal autumn.

Maybe I should go down to Amsterdam and explore their offerings?  :-\
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1832 on: February 25, 2018, 07:43:55 PM »
Feb 24:
“Cape Morris Jesup (#Greenland's northernmost observation station) is now reporting temperatures well above freezing today... +6.1°C at the latest observation! Crazy!
... “
https://twitter.com/zlabe/status/967498889854050304
Image below; more info at the link.

“The northernmost permanent weather station in the world, just 440 miles from the North Pole, has warmed to 43°F today -- in the middle of months-long darkness during what is normally the coldest time of the year.
This is simply shocking. I don't have the words.”
   https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/967510368103870465


“Update from @dmidk climatologist confirms observational data is accurate as far as can be checked”
https://twitter.com/greenlandicesmb/status/966288934371319808
More at the link.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2441
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1012
  • Likes Given: 1034
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1833 on: February 25, 2018, 07:56:01 PM »
the most recent measurement at Morris Jesup at @ 4pm gmt was below -13'C .. things do change a lot in 24 hours ..
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1834 on: February 25, 2018, 09:18:27 PM »
Just out of curiosity, was the recent 80F weather in the northeast US considered a 1 in 500 year event or something along those lines? 

I'd love to know the last time in the geological record that Greenland experienced 43F days in February.

Has it been millions of years?

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1835 on: February 25, 2018, 09:55:21 PM »
Just out of curiosity, was the recent 80F weather in the northeast US considered a 1 in 500 year event or something along those lines? 

I'd love to know the last time in the geological record that Greenland experienced 43F days in February.

Has it been millions of years?
No. Harpy, you seem to read overhyped sources. Seriously, weather is variable, and "millions of years" includes several warm climactic periods. Let's focus on what we know well, it's scary enough as it is even when sticking to reliable facts.

bbr2314

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1817
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 158
  • Likes Given: 53
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1836 on: February 25, 2018, 10:10:04 PM »
Just out of curiosity, was the recent 80F weather in the northeast US considered a 1 in 500 year event or something along those lines? 

I'd love to know the last time in the geological record that Greenland experienced 43F days in February.

Has it been millions of years?
No. Harpy, you seem to read overhyped sources. Seriously, weather is variable, and "millions of years" includes several warm climactic periods. Let's focus on what we know well, it's scary enough as it is even when sticking to reliable facts.
What? He is not necessarily wrong.

In fact, the recent weather *was* unprecedented in both the NE US and in Greenland (ongoing). I do not know the recurrence interval but NYC is going to have its warmest February since record-keeping began in the 1860s, taking over from 2017 for the #1 spot. So it is most certainly the warmest in 150 years and probably many centuries/millennia more...

RunningChristo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 61
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 15
  • Likes Given: 107
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1837 on: February 25, 2018, 10:17:47 PM »
The heat is still on,  currently +4.0 C at Longyearbyen, Svalbard! Ironically we're at the complete other end of the ladder around Oslo, where temps are dropping fast as we speak, will be well below -10 tomorrow morning and for a  whole week most likely😲. Spring is hereby postponed until further notice, right so Sleepy?
My fancy for ice & glaciers started in 1995:-).

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2441
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1012
  • Likes Given: 1034
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1838 on: February 25, 2018, 10:20:51 PM »
and the dmi 80 record anomaly of 2 days ago has as expected been shattered ! bc
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

gerontocrat

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 20376
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 5289
  • Likes Given: 69
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1839 on: February 26, 2018, 12:07:21 AM »
Yes records are being broken.
Yes, another notch up in AGW.

Apocalypse now! I don't think so.
"Para a Causa do Povo a Luta Continua!"
"And that's all I'm going to say about that". Forrest Gump
"Damn, I wanted to see what happened next" (Epitaph)

be cause

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2441
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1012
  • Likes Given: 1034
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1840 on: February 26, 2018, 01:14:51 AM »
no better time for one .. looks like Britain will have a little Brexit weather drill this week as the cold that left the Arctic drops by .. with a generous coating of snow . A nation is about to be brought to a standstill just as it declares it's independence . And it's all coming from Europe .. oh the irony ..
Conflict is the root of all evil , for being blind it does not see whom it attacks . Yet it always attacks the Son Of God , and the Son of God is you .

harpy

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 437
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 104
  • Likes Given: 26
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1841 on: February 26, 2018, 02:53:06 AM »
Just out of curiosity, was the recent 80F weather in the northeast US considered a 1 in 500 year event or something along those lines? 

I'd love to know the last time in the geological record that Greenland experienced 43F days in February.

Has it been millions of years?
No. Harpy, you seem to read overhyped sources. Seriously, weather is variable, and "millions of years" includes several warm climactic periods. Let's focus on what we know well, it's scary enough as it is even when sticking to reliable facts.

There were several warm periods of time over the past 1 million years or so based on the ice core data.  The CO2 levels are now MUCH higher than any of those periods. 

Here look for yourself:  https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/co2-and-temperature-changes-are.html

I'm not reading overhyped sources - that's a discriminatory statement.  I've actually posted accurate information, not overhyped information.

The problem is not overhyping, it's inaction and conservative approaches to talking about exponential climate change.  We need overhyping right now, because we're in a climate emergency that's unprecedented in the geological record.


So let's try this again:   If CO2 levels are the highest they've been in 2-3 million years (and temperature follows CO2), then is it anything less than logic to ask whether or not current 43F weather in the north pole in February, and 80F degree days in NYC in February are the warmest in a million years?

Some folks around here wouldn't be convinced unless they literally travelled back in time with a thermometer and took the readings themselves.
« Last Edit: February 26, 2018, 03:11:21 AM by harpy »

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1842 on: February 26, 2018, 03:03:35 AM »
Just out of curiosity, was the recent 80F weather in the northeast US considered a 1 in 500 year event or something along those lines? 

I'd love to know the last time in the geological record that Greenland experienced 43F days in February.

Has it been millions of years?
No. Harpy, you seem to read overhyped sources. Seriously, weather is variable, and "millions of years" includes several warm climactic periods. Let's focus on what we know well, it's scary enough as it is even when sticking to reliable facts.
What? He is not necessarily wrong.

In fact, the recent weather *was* unprecedented in both the NE US and in Greenland (ongoing). I do not know the recurrence interval but NYC is going to have its warmest February since record-keeping began in the 1860s, taking over from 2017 for the #1 spot. So it is most certainly the warmest in 150 years and probably many centuries/millennia more...
Agree.
I was referring to extrapolating that to millions of years, in relation to a specific weather event, to which I disagree.

oren

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 9805
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3584
  • Likes Given: 3922
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1843 on: February 26, 2018, 03:34:58 AM »
Just out of curiosity, was the recent 80F weather in the northeast US considered a 1 in 500 year event or something along those lines? 

I'd love to know the last time in the geological record that Greenland experienced 43F days in February.

Has it been millions of years?
No. Harpy, you seem to read overhyped sources. Seriously, weather is variable, and "millions of years" includes several warm climactic periods. Let's focus on what we know well, it's scary enough as it is even when sticking to reliable facts.

There were several warm periods of time over the past 1 million years or so based on the ice core data.  The CO2 levels are now MUCH higher than any of those periods. 

Here look for yourself:  https://warmgloblog.blogspot.com/2013/06/co2-and-temperature-changes-are.html

I'm not reading overhyped sources - that's a discriminatory statement.  I've actually posted accurate information, not overhyped information.

The problem is not overhyping, it's inaction and conservative approaches to talking about exponential climate change.  We need overhyping right now, because we're in a climate emergency that's unprecedented in the geological record.


So let's try this again:   If CO2 levels are the highest they've been in 2-3 million years (and temperature follows CO2), then is it anything less than logic to ask whether or not current 43F weather in the north pole in February, and 80F degree days in NYC in February are the warmest in a million years?

Some folks around here wouldn't be convinced unless they literally travelled back in time with a thermometer and took the readings themselves.
A quick check at Wikipedia leads me to estimate a high probability that Greenland experienced 43F days in February 125,000 years ago:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eemian
Quote
The Eemian was the interglacial period which began about 130,000 years ago and ended about 115,000 years ago. It corresponds to Marine Isotope Stage 5e.
...
The Eemian climate is believed to have been about as stable as that of the Holocene. Changes in the Earth's orbital parameters from today (greater obliquity and eccentricity, and perihelion), known as Milankovitch cycles, probably led to greater seasonal temperature variations in the Northern Hemisphere, although global annual mean temperatures were probably similar to those of the Holocene. The warmest peak of the Eemian was around 125,000 years ago, when forests reached as far north as North Cape, Norway (which is now tundra) well above the Arctic Circle. Hardwood trees such as hazel and oak grew as far north as Oulu, Finland.

At the peak of the Eemian, the Northern Hemisphere winters were generally warmer and wetter than now, though some areas were actually slightly cooler than today. The hippopotamus was distributed as far north as the rivers Rhine and Thames. Trees grew as far north as southern Baffin Island in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: currently, the northern limit is further south at Kuujjuaq in northern Quebec. Coastal Alaska was warm enough during the summer due to reduced sea ice in the Arctic Ocean to allow Saint Lawrence Island (now tundra) to have boreal forest, although inadequate precipitation caused a reduction in the forest cover in interior Alaska and Yukon Territory despite warmer conditions.
...
Sea level at peak was probably 6 to 9 m (20 to 30 feet) higher than today, with Greenland contributing 0.6 to 3.5 m, thermal expansion and mountain glaciers contributing up to 1 m, and an uncertain contribution from Antarctica.

Pmt111500

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1844 on: February 26, 2018, 04:46:58 AM »
The neighbors cat (northern landrace, not as heavily furred as the Norwegian wild cat (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norwegian_Forest_cat) though, was again out for the night @ ~-11C. He's getting a bit old so he has (or likes) to stay in on the colder nights, even with the undercoat. We don't have any wild cats in Finland, though we have barn yard feral cats on locations. If the winters warm up as projected we'll have naturalized cats pretty soon, I guess. The other cat is of a southern breed with only a top coat so no nightly T's of under -5C for him.

sidd

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6774
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1047
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1845 on: February 26, 2018, 05:47:56 AM »
Got some mongrel cats living in one of the barns all year. They get fed around the neighbourhood, but seem to prefer to hang in the lowest level carved out the hill under the barn, where they make themselves nice little nests at a respectable distance from the chickens. I know they've been out there in subzero (F) weather, seem fine. They definitely have undercoats.

A few years ago i walked up a hill on a cloudless night to get to cell phone reception,  was well below zero (F) with the stars hanging like diamonds and corn stalks breaking like gunshots under my boots. One of the cats accompanied me all the way up the hill and back, a good hour in very cold weather. Pranced about, ran after real and imagined prey, had a good old time.

I daresay the cat was warmer than i was.

sidd

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1846 on: February 26, 2018, 08:15:04 AM »
The heat is still on,  currently +4.0 C at Longyearbyen, Svalbard! Ironically we're at the complete other end of the ladder around Oslo, where temps are dropping fast as we speak, will be well below -10 tomorrow morning and for a  whole week most likely😲. Spring is hereby postponed until further notice, right so Sleepy?

No, because what I posted was a meteorological definition.
I almost forgot, (SMHI Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute) declared spring in the southernmost parts of Sweden on Wednesday.
Blue=Winter, light green=Spring temps (daily mean above 0°C), green=Spring conditions wich is daily mean temps above 0°C for at least seven days straight, starting earliest on February 15.
Spring has arrived and it doesn't matter if there's a colder period (like now) afterwards. Spring is still there even if the southern parts gets -60°C. ;)
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1847 on: February 26, 2018, 08:25:27 AM »
Yes records are being broken.
Yes, another notch up in AGW.

Apocalypse now! I don't think so.
The same procedure as every year.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sleepy

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1202
  • Retired, again...
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 120
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1848 on: February 26, 2018, 08:39:40 AM »
Anomalies for yesterday shows why we now can read the standard phrase "where's global warming" posted in different media. Unfortunately, such comments are scarcer now than ten years ago.
Omnia mirari, etiam tritissima.
-
Science is a jealous mistress and takes little account of a man's feelings.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25759
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1849 on: February 26, 2018, 03:06:41 PM »
Snow in Rome

“#snowinrome, such a rare event the city nearly shuts down #nevearoma ”
https://twitter.com/spoggioli1/status/968029045718908928
Image below.

Rare snow storm disrupts flights, shuts down schools in Rome
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-italy-snow/rare-snow-storm-disrupts-flights-shuts-down-schools-in-rome-idUSKCN1GA0WV
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.