Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change

[Martin Gisser]

Europe’s sunny weather makes for a sorry summer in Reykjavik
REYKJAVIK, Iceland (AP) — Pop singer Helgi Bjornsson, who is well-known in his native Iceland for a 1980s hit titled “I Do Like the Rain,” recently appeared on national television while a deadpan reporter challenged him to defend the song’s premise.

The people of Reykjavik do not like the rain anymore. This summer has been so gray and wet in the capital of Iceland that meteorologists have to look as far back as 1914 to find records for a worse May and June.
(...)
During June, the month of midnight sun and camping holidays in Iceland, sunshine touched Reykjavik for a total of 70 hours. The temperature reached 13.2 degrees Celsius (56 F) on the warmest day, two degrees shy of Reykjavik’s average for the month.

In May, it rained every single day.


(...)
https://apnews.com/a947ab13c1bc4c1c86c29e72c0f14c5d

---------------------
P.S.: Stupid AP. It is Björnsson with Ö. And I guess the song is this: "Mér finnst rigningin góð" which google translates as "I think the rain is good".

[Sigmetnow]

Southern California; Los Angeles.

“Map of all the stations around LA currently reporting a temp of 115° (46.1°C) or higher
There's, um, quite a few of them #LAHeatwave”
https://twitter.com/gdimeweather/status/1015368735044009986
Image below.

“For those that aren’t familiar, while most of us have our hottest average temperatures in July, SoCal usually has theirs in early September (I’m sure there’s a @Climatologist49 map for this). This sort of heat in July there is incredible. Natl wx this week has been something else”
https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1015432464221790211


“Infrared isn't working on police airships because the surroundings are giving off warmer heat signatures than people. At nighttime. In Los Angeles.”
https://twitter.com/bergopolis/status/1015451020153913344

[Sigmetnow]

Southern California

“Burbank, CA has broken the city's all time hottest observed temperature on record. Temperatures are currently at 113F, which breaks the old record high of 111.9F set back in July 2006.”
https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1015347462964416512

[Susan Anderson]

Wow! Meanwhile, Super Typhoon Maria now at 160 mph, headed for China; looks like it's headed north of Taiwan but will be broken down a bit before landfall:
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/western-pacific/2018/super-typhoon-maria

[Alexander555]

https://www.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/milieu/ijsberg-van-100-meter-hoog-bedreigt-kust-van-groenland-inwoners-uit-voorzorg-geevacueerd~acad4f17/

[gerontocrat]

https://www.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/milieu/ijsberg-van-100-meter-hoog-bedreigt-kust-van-groenland-inwoners-uit-voorzorg-geevacueerd~acad4f17/

Worth posting the image (and the commentary)

Een 100 meter hoge ijsberg op drift bedreigt de kusten van Groenland. De lokale autoriteiten hebben uit voorzorg alvast mensen geëvacueerd.
De Groenlandse politie maande de kustbewoners van het eiland Innaarsuit aan weg te trekken van de kust. Ze vreest dat hun woningen onderlopen als het reusachtige ijsblok breekt. “We vrezen dat de ijsberg kalft, wat een overstroming zou veroorzaken”, aldus veiligheidschef Lina Davidsen.

Het dorp, dat in het noordwesten van Groenland ligt, telt 169 inwoners. Enkel zij die in de nabijheid van de ijsberg wonen, werden geëvacueerd. “De ijsberg drijft nog altijd dicht bij het dorp, de politie is aan het bespreken hoe het nu verder moet”, zei Kunuk Frediksen, een hoge officier van de Groenlandse politie.

[Tor Bejnar]

Google doesn't know one or two of the words, but:

A 100 meter high iceberg adrift threatens the coasts of Greenland. The local authorities have already evacuated people from precaution.
The Greenlandic police have been Innaarsuit [giving orders to???] the coastal inhabitants of the island to pull away from the coast. She fears that their homes are underrunning [under threat???] as the giant ice block breaks. "We fear that the iceberg is calving, which would cause a flood," said chief executive Lina Daviden.

The village, which lies in the northwest of Greenland, has 169 inhabitants. Only those who live in the vicinity of the iceberg were evacuated. "The iceberg still floats close to the village, the police are discussing how to proceed now," said Kunuk Frediksen, a senior officer of the Greenland Police.

[gerontocrat]

Google doesn't know one or two of the words, but:

"The iceberg still floats close to the village, the police are discussing how to proceed now," said Kunuk Frediksen, a senior officer of the Greenland Police.

Get out there and push ( I wonder if its grounded)

[Tor Bejnar]

or wait for high tide, then push.  The berg on the near side is clearly higher in the water than it used to be and may well be perched on some rocks.  (Weight shifting [caused by, e.g., lost edge] can cause this look as well, without being grounded.)

[Hefaistos]

Must be quite deep close to the shoreline, as only 10% of the berg is above surface and it's said in the article it's 100 m high, we have 900 m below surface. Hard to see how that thing could sail ashore...

[Sigmetnow]

“The first six months of the year have made it the hottest La Niña year to date on record,” said Clare Nullis of the WMO.

Heatwave sees record high temperatures around world this week
From Europe to Africa, extreme and widespread heat raises climate concerns in hottest La Niña year to date on record
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/13/heatwave-sees-record-high-temperatures-set-around-world-this-week

[ReverendMilkbone]

“The first six months of the year have made it the hottest La Niña year to date on record,” said Clare Nullis of the WMO.

Heatwave sees record high temperatures around world this week
From Europe to Africa, extreme and widespread heat raises climate concerns in hottest La Niña year to date on record
https://amp.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/13/heatwave-sees-record-high-temperatures-set-around-world-this-week

I would bet a handshake that next years El-Nino is going to be a massive record breaker.

[be cause]

hundreds died in flooding in Japan .. worth recording it happened ?  b.c.

[Sleepy]

Wierd or anecdotal?
The heat and drought in Sweden since May is not enough, we are still flying abroad more.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/trots-varmen-fler-reser-utomlands
7-8% more travels this summer. The sun is obviously a lot better around the Mediterranean Sea or in the US. 

[Sigmetnow]

hundreds died in flooding in Japan .. worth recording it happened ?  b.c.

It was covered extensively in the Floods thread:  https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1951.msg162449.html#msg162449 

[sesyf]

Wierd or anecdotal?
The heat and drought in Sweden since May is not enough, we are still flying abroad more.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/trots-varmen-fler-reser-utomlands
7-8% more travels this summer. The sun is obviously a lot better around the Mediterranean Sea or in the US. 

They probably have a wish for skin cancer or something from higher UV radiation....

[Sigmetnow]

Bill McKibben (@billmckibben)
7/16/18, 2:00 PM
“Huh. We've swamped the atmosphere with so much methane that it is producing new cloud patterns. That seems a tad ominous ...”
https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/1018918335554228227

Methane Is Giving Noctilucent Clouds a Boost
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Methane-Giving-Noctilucent-Clouds-Boost

[Sleepy]

Wierd or anecdotal?
The heat and drought in Sweden since May is not enough, we are still flying abroad more.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/trots-varmen-fler-reser-utomlands
7-8% more travels this summer. The sun is obviously a lot better around the Mediterranean Sea or in the US. 

They probably have a wish for skin cancer or something from higher UV radiation....

You tell me, sesyf. I'm clueless...
Yesterday's anomalies (1^st image) and the forecast (2^nd image) for the next three days via SMHI. No, the forecast is not for the Adriatic Coast because the sun is not up at midnight there, it's Karesuando/Karesuvanto. For those of you who don't know where that is, I'll mark it with a big yellow dot on the anomaly map.

[Sigmetnow]

Hot spots.

[Martin Gisser]

Heck, if there weren't a gazillion of mosquitos I would prefer Finland over the Mediterranean or the Carribean (or any other such sun starved place) for summer vacation!

[Sleepy]

Don't, this hotspot (since May...) might be running out of beer.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svensk-ol-kan-ta-slut-torkan-ar-boven

But seriously, farmers are in real trouble here.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/orebro/branschen-varnar-om-krislage-stor-risk-for-brist-pa-mejeriprodukter-i-host
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/lantmannen-kan-behova-importera-800-000-ton-spannmal
Which will affect us all down the line.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/vast/varmen-kan-gora-din-mat-dyr-till-hosten

[Sleepy]

Hot spots.

Here's the real thing by SMHI.

[Sleepy]

No wonder.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/varmland/karolina-fick-ovantat-badsallskap

Updated coverage from the fires here.
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/flera-skogsbrander-i-landet

[Csnavywx]

I live in Chicago...mid 90's through the weekend with high humidity...no air conditioning...will do fine.

In times gone by, we had no air conditioning to cope with 90-degree temperatures, and we coped.

The U.S. population as a whole today skews older, poorer, fatter, and sicker (e.g., diabetes, and the cardio-vascular and renal complications thereof).  Much less able to withstand heat, both physically and economically.

And well stupider! Suffering 90 Fahrenheit they well deserve. What a joke. It's not even 100! No empathy here. Bring on the fucken climate change. They want to suffer. They need to suffer. What else to tell the leading science denying nation?

Wow so much either a lack of appreciation of the conditions in the past or lack of empathy.

Ha!

According to the National Weather Service, this are the years with the most 90+ degree days in Chicago:

1988:  47
1955:  46
2012:  46
1959:  39
1952:  38
1954:  36
1964:  35
1971:  35
1944:  34
1977:  33
1987:  33
1934:  32

Only one year since the turn of the century made this list.  There were more 90+ degree days in the 1950s than the 2000s.  Even 100+ degrees were more frequent.  In the 30-year period from 1930-1959, twenty seven 100+ degrees were recorded.  In the past 30 years, there have been only 11, and none since 2012.  Considering the city tops 100 on average every 4.5 years, they are overdue.  The highest recorded temperature was 105 in 1934.

Picking summer temps in IL is a bit of cherry-picking as this is the state with the least amount of summer temperature change in this century so far (about half of the summers between 2000 and present have been below normal and half above normal).

[Sigmetnow]

This may or may not not be “weird,” and it’s certainly not “anecdotal” — but it has one freaky-looking GIF.  Differences in tornado locations from year to year do not seem random.

“Annual tornado occurrences (start locations by EF rating) using @thomasp85 gganimate, @hadleywickham ggplot, and @edzerpebesma sf.”
https://twitter.com/JBElsner/status/1020002736996265984
Image below; GIF at the link.

[oren]

As one tweet remarked:
Fascinating animation. It seems almost like there's a two-year alternation between more clustered and more dispersed tornado occurrences. Is that a real thing?

[Sigmetnow]

NWS Podunk: We could predict the exact path of tornadoes 24 hours in advance and half the people in its way would wait until the sky gets dark to leave.

Rick Smith: I disagree with this. Half is too low!

Gary Szatkowski: Did you factor in how many people would come from miles away to gather on the 'edge' of the path and see the tornado?

https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/887387484023345152

[Niall Dollard]

The max of 41.1 C recorded earlier today at Kumagaya, Japan is the highest official temperature ever recorded in Japan. It broke the old national Japanese temperature record by 0.1 C

[Pmt111500]

National Weather Service got to national news with a climate change story, https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10296525, mainly what was already known, winters have become almost a  month shorter in southern finland. Local news promoted soil carbon-adding agriculture. 

[Pmt111500]

July 2018 in Finland was the warmest in measurement history surpassing the old record from 1941 by 0,4 degrees Celsius. 19,6°C is the new record, with Lapland hitting 5°C above normals whereas elsewhere temperatures were only 2,5-4°C above normals. Highest this year has been 33,7°C, nowhere near the record of 37,2°C, measured in Joensuu on 29th of July, 2010.

[Aluminium]

In Murmansk, July 2018 was only the second warmest (the warmest was in 1960), though monthly temperature was 5,3°C above normal. Nevertheless, yesterday Murmansk got the highest temperature of August. 30,2°C.

[Pmt111500]

Highest point in Sweden has changed due glacial melting, the icy south peak of Kebnekaise has lost 20 m and is now lower than the stony north peak.
A bit more:
https://www.thelocal.se/20180802/arctic-heat-melts-away-swedens-highest-peak-kebnekaise

[bligh8]

Here along the coast weather systems moving east across the country at times stall, in the past this would only perhaps bring a little more rain.  These days they stall and ocean air retrogrades over the coast. The result is dirty air, it stinks, not like low tide Ocean smell, just foul & dark grey in color. This has happened 3-4 times over the last 2 months.

Adding this to SLR & increasing violent storms the coast is not a good place to live.

I was just in Michigan for a spell,  the air was refreshing, fresh and crisp with the North West winds.

[Bruce Steele]

Rumor, anecdotal , and I wasn't there.
During the Calif. Mid. State Fair a large number of pigs died of heat exposure . Maybe 60.  Temperatures reached 111 F and 109 F for the last couple days of the fair. I can't find any news coverage because it is tragic and brutal and it hurts too much . But there it is , climate change death and our feeble tolerance to pain.
It don't make good copy.
And we are going to be burying the bad stories, and we don't want to hear about climate change , or hard cold evidence. And we won't. Na na na na na na

https://www.sanluisobispo.com/entertainment/mid-state-fair/article215361510.html

And no there is no mention of pig mortality in this article... Just people trying to excape the heat.

[TerryM]

Bruce


I remember that when they were navigating from Tahiti to Hawaii in a recreated double canoe they had problems with the modern pigs they took along. Sunscreen, frequent sprinklings with ocean water & plenty of shade were required.


Humans appear to be much more able to withstand the high temperatures than our modern porcine pals. Your own furry breed might do better against direct sun's rays, but high temperatures would probably prove just as fatal.


I wonder if they'd appreciate a misting system to keep the temperature down when they're separated from a wallow.


Terry

[Bruce Steele]

Terry, They need a wallow.
I don't know how many other swallows died in the earlier heatwave that killed the ones in my window eaves . I think there is damage we just don't see but I think we would prefer to look away anyhow.
I have looked for the last decade into acidification and it will proceed without notice because it is even more obscure than dead barn swallows or stressed farm livestock.
 You'd think an old pig farmer might be toughened up to such things.
 And yes an old breed like the Mangalitsas I raise are hardier but on hot days I keep a vigil because all pigs are very sensitive to heat. I however get to sneak back into the AC between rounds.
 Maybe it's morbid but we should have reality TV in the slums of Mumbai when temps push human endurance so we can see it . Don't worry it ain't gonna happen but most of us need to open our eyes.
We watch the Barrow Ice Cam but maybe we need a Mumbai wet bulb cam .

[TerryM]

Bruce
Both insects and insectivores seem in short supply here in southern Ontario. A single dragonfly spotted in an afternoon on the river! The robins came north far too early this year and I've seen none recently.
Blue Green Algae seems to be having a bumper year however.
Terry

[oren]

Bruce thank you for your occasional "stories from the trenches". I share a feeling of helpless despair.

[Shared Humanity]

Maybe it's morbid but we should have reality TV in the slums of Mumbai when temps push human endurance so we can see it . Don't worry it ain't gonna happen but most of us need to open our eyes.
We watch the Barrow Ice Cam but maybe we need a Mumbai wet bulb cam .

30 year career in manufacturing where you measure and chart everything. We need to start measuring and charting warm weather fatalities and publicize them.

[be cause]

.. it seems no problem to count the dead after a few chill days in winter .. usually hear figures like 15 or 30 thousand extra deaths in the UK  .. and no one cares .. so if 15 0r 30 people die in a heatwave .. who will rise up in horror ?  b.c.

[Alexander555]

They predict it will stay hot in Europe until the end of Oktober.
https://www.hln.be/wetenschap-planeet/weernieuws/blijft-de-hitte-echt-duren-tot-in-oktober~a1b462f4/

[Alexander555]

Last year we also had a heatwave i think in Oktober, but it was not that dry. Now they also predict it will be much more dry than normal.

[bbr2314]

I am fairly sure this winter is going to be completely absurd (i.e., extremely cold and snowy), at least for Eastern North America. The shift to cold continents / warm Arctic since 2012 is unmistakeable undeniable and only worsening.

[Shared Humanity]

I am fairly sure this winter is going to be completely absurd (i.e., extremely cold and snowy), at least for Eastern North America. The shift to cold continents / warm Arctic since 2012 is unmistakeable undeniable and only worsening.

Would love cold and snowy for north america...best possible weather for agriculture.

[sark]

I am fairly sure this winter is going to be completely absurd (i.e., extremely cold and snowy), at least for Eastern North America. The shift to cold continents / warm Arctic since 2012 is unmistakeable undeniable and only worsening.

I got curious about WACCy results so I created this gif, ERA-I temperature difference of 1979-2000 vs 2007-2017.  (click to animate)

[wolfpack513]

I live in Redding, CA so I would say the last 10 days meets the criteria for this thread.  The last 5-6 years have been unrelentingly warm.  Only a handful of months have been at or below normal. 

The fuels is what to focus on and its connection to a warmer climate.  Our ERC’s have been at or above seasonal peak since late June.  The long term average for seasonal peak for NorCal’s fuels is typically around Labor Day. 

[bbr2314]

I am fairly sure this winter is going to be completely absurd (i.e., extremely cold and snowy), at least for Eastern North America. The shift to cold continents / warm Arctic since 2012 is unmistakeable undeniable and only worsening.

I got curious about WACCy results so I created this gif, ERA-I temperature difference of 1979-2000 vs 2007-2017.  (click to animate)

Can you do 2013-2018 vs 1979-2000? I think 2007 misses the "inflection point" that occurred in 2012.

[sark]

I am fairly sure this winter is going to be completely absurd (i.e., extremely cold and snowy), at least for Eastern North America. The shift to cold continents / warm Arctic since 2012 is unmistakeable undeniable and only worsening.

I got curious about WACCy results so I created this gif, ERA-I temperature difference of 1979-2000 vs 2007-2017.  (click to animate)

Can you do 2013-2018 vs 1979-2000? I think 2007 misses the "inflection point" that occurred in 2012.

Here's ERA-I 1979-2000 vs 2013-2017 by month.

[bbr2314]

Here is 2013-2017 minus 2006-2012. I think we need to bound the before and after closer to the inflection point (or what I believe to be the inflection point). If 2018 were included I would imagine the blues would be even more severe. The shift over the past decade or so has been quite incredible, IMO, and this suggests we are entering a period of catastrophic climate change and impending glaciation for Quebec.

If you check out their "climate model" the glaciation of Quebec and surrounds kicks off in FORCE between -2 and -3C vs. 1979-2000 normals. We are now well below that vs. 2006-2012 but we still have a ways to go to reach that vs. 1979-2000. The question is, will the trend since 2012 continue (I don't see why it wouldn't) and how quickly will we get to -3C vs. 1979-2000 normals if it does?

If we roll forward the results since "peak continental warming" from 2006-2012 (approx) vs. 2013+, we are already at -2C vs. those years and now cooler or neutral vs. 1979-2000. That would mean we need about another six years to get to -2C vs. 1979-2000 across the favored regions of Canada.

IF this is anywhere near accurate, we will see rapid re-glaciation begin across Quebec and the vicinity beginning in approximately 2024, and worsening rapidly through 2030. This would appear to be a close match to the changing SWE / sea ice mass balance in the Northern Hemisphere, which portends another doubling in continental accumulated SWE through 2025-2030, assuming 2018 was not a fluke (which I do not think it was).

We are seeing the mechanism behind the Younger Dryas unfold in real time which is extremely exciting, even if it means the end of most industrialized civilization...!

[oren]

This is not for the impending glaciation of Quebec, already discussed ad nauseum in some threads, but warm summers will prevent any snow from sticking around, regardless of how cold winter gets.
Also: whose climate model?
And: maybe there is some oscillation/variability at work?