Support the Arctic Sea Ice Forum and Blog

Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 1198636 times)

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #250 on: December 23, 2013, 05:26:26 PM »
Here's the temperature anomaly map for North America Dec 3-10:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82604&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid

We're looking at very cold temperatures tonight here in Minnesota: -26 C (-15 F) with wind chills down to -34 C (-30 F).
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #251 on: December 23, 2013, 06:44:57 PM »
No snow in Siberia!  Much-above-average warmth across Russia (and the arctic) over the past 30 days.

http://siberiantimes.com/ecology/casestudy/features/no-snow-in-siberia-locals-marvel-and-worry-at-the-snow-shortage/

People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

Sigmetnow

  • Multi-year ice
  • Posts: 25763
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1153
  • Likes Given: 430
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #252 on: December 24, 2013, 02:37:00 AM »
Tweet from Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison.
12/23/13, 5:49 PM
Currently 15 degrees in Anchorage, Alaska, 31 at McMurdo Station, Antarctica, and 1 degree in Madison, Wisconsin.
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #253 on: December 24, 2013, 04:12:20 PM »
-12 F (-23 C) here in Minnesota right now, but the East Coast has had some very warm weather for this time of year:


Record high temperatures in New York, Philadelphia – Washington D.C. ‘about 40 degrees warmer than normal’


http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2013/12/record-high-temperatures-in-new-york.html

Quote
December 21-22. From Florida to New York daily and, in some cases, monthly heat records were broken. There are too many to list all, so here is a selection:

DECEMBER MONTHLY RECORDS

Norfolk, Virginia: 81° on 12/22 (old record 80° on 3 occasions)

Augusta, Georgia: 83° on 12/21 (old 82° on 8 occasions)

Savannah, Georgia: 83° on 12/22 (ties 5 other occasions)

Jacksonville, Florida: 84° on 1/22 (ties 9 other occasions—including twice before this month)

SOME OF THE DAILY RECORDS SET ON DECEMBER 21 or 22

    63° Binghamton, NY
    70 ° Harrisburg, PA (set at 6 a.m.)
    82° Tampa, FL
    73° Knoxville, TN (set at 4 a.m.)
    72° Chattanooga, TN
    73° Bristol, TN
    64° Canton, OH (set at midnight )
    72° Pittsburgh, PA
    70° New York City, Central Park,
    71° Newark, NJ
    64° Hartford, CT
    63° Worcester, MA
    72° Washington, DC
    64° Providence, RI
    86° Orlando, FL
    71° Atlanta, GA
    78° Raleigh, NC
    68° Philadelphia, PA
    76° Richmond, VA
    71° Atlantic City, NJ
    67° Wilmington, DE

Any ASIForum members in these areas enjoying these temperatures?
« Last Edit: December 24, 2013, 04:23:05 PM by wili »
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

pikaia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 395
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 121
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #254 on: December 24, 2013, 10:32:49 PM »
The UK is being battered by very strong winds at the moment, and the pressure north of Scotland was measured at 906mb! My barometer only goes down to 950mb.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

bligh8

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 313
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #256 on: December 28, 2013, 08:50:33 PM »
Here's the temperature anomaly map for North America Dec 3-10:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=82604&eocn=home&eoci=iotd_grid

We're looking at very cold temperatures tonight here in Minnesota: -26 C (-15 F) with wind chills down to -34 C (-30 F).

Wili...First, Thanks for the weather anomaly map. The information displayed all points towards the bigger picture of Global climate change.
 
My point in posting the newspaperarticle was poorly explained (by me).
In that these type of damaging weather events are increasing, as everyone here knows. In a weather climate like we have now, which is very rapidly changing, society is running from one weather related catastrophe to the next and we are subsidizing the FF industry by paying for the damage. Thus perpetuating our own "to comfortable to give up" life style.
 
This activity(noise) is a prelude to the second step on the ladder of Global warming. We all, including everybody has witnessed the first step with a collective yawn, put a convenient name on it and stuck in the back drawer of forgotten issues. The first step as a Globally recognizable event was the destruction of the planets coral reef systems. So what, a few distinct creatures and some fish died...but it was non the less a global warming related event.
 
The second step (the collapse of the WAIS) will happen soon enough and in my opinion much quicker than the models are predicting today. It will have a high impact on the planets economy and as a result of this event hundreds of millions of people will die. Mass migration, food and redistribution of energy will fall into the garbage patch of global warming. Sea level rise in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to a catastrophic chain of events in the Arctic as warm Atlantic and Pacific waters surge into the Arctic Ocean. The tiny amounts of methane release we are seeing today will escalate accordingly.
 
The "noise" will escalate to calamity and geo-engineers will frantically spray all kinds of toxic brews into the atmosphere trying to protect what's left. Sea Levels will continue to rise and economic conditions will continue to deteriorate. By this time society will have no basic human services...at all. Folks will be left to their own devices for survival, accordingly, compassion and brutality will be evidenced at every turn.
 
Unfortunately the GW ladder is a short one as the third and forth steps will melt in a ever increasingly hot planet.
 

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #257 on: December 28, 2013, 09:18:17 PM »
Many good points. Let me just make a comment about this one for now:

"we are subsidizing the FF industry by paying for the damage. Thus perpetuating our own "to comfortable to give up" life style."

I wonder if this could be a way to get courts involved here. It is long past time for class action suits and suits by governments at different levels against the ff companies or against the groups funding climate denial so they can start paying directly for the damages they have been central at creating, and that they have done everything in their power to stop others from preventing.

Even a law suit that didn't win could garner some press and put some fear of the goddess in some of these spineless bastards. Ideally, any winnings would be used to relocate (rather than, say, rebuilding along the coast), as well as to educate, to insulate, and to foster other measures that reduce the likelihood of the next disaster being even worse.
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

bligh8

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 313
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 56
  • Likes Given: 4
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #258 on: December 29, 2013, 05:11:16 PM »
Hey Wili

Perhaps a law suit surrounding a particular event could be broadly publicized but I doubt it would be this last ice storm, or even hurricane sandy, which by the way our electrical rate just rose 4.5 percent in response to that event. However that mess out in Colorado could be argued to be a direct result of GW.

Wili as you probably guessed by now I’m no scientist and had little understanding of GW other than the concept just a few months ago. That said, I took the time to focus on the research past and present within the fram straights. What I found was disturbing and revealing to the point where one could rationally define what’s coming within the confines of GW.

As for solutions I have none. It seems the entire planet utilizes FF to define economic outlooks, from south Sudan to Japan everyone is jumping on the FF train to destruction.

There seems to be no outcry from the public, O-sure folks yell about fracking and pipelines, but the basic numbers are adding up quickly to the destruction of human life, possibly forever. The necessary reductions in co2 emissions will never, under the current situation be implemented. Even if they threw the ff switch to off today the damage we have done will resound for centuries to come. The street artist, the poets, the writers, the producers and politicians all seem blind to this.

The old adage “Evil will prevail unless good men act” seems to fit perfectly.

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #259 on: January 03, 2014, 10:14:49 AM »
"There seems to be outcry from the public" Well, aren't we the public? Why aren't we out crying??'-)

No really, I do plan to raise a bit of a ruckus this year--to not 'go gentle into that good night'--mostly on line and email blitzes. Any New Years resolutions from others?

On possible legal approaches, there's this: http://www.resilience.org/stories/2014-01-02/a-legal-call-to-arms-to-remedy-environmental-and-climate-ills

Back on the subject of the thread:
 Australia had its hottest year ever in 2013

One important thing about this event is that it cannot be accounted for by natural variation alone--it has the direct marks of AGW on it:

   
Quote
While many climate extremes cannot be directly attributed to a changing climate, the burden of extremes Australia is experiencing is a product of climate change and requires a coordinated national response.”

    The 2013 record high is also remarkable because it occurred not in an El Nino year (where a warm ocean current can push up temperatures), but a normal year.

    Professor David Karoly, from the School of Earth Sciences at University of Melbourne, says analysis has been made of the temperature record using simulations with nine different climate models that represent the natural variability of Australian average temperatures.

    He says these indicate that greenhouse climate change vastly increased the odds of setting a new temperature record.

    “In the model experiments, it is not possible to reach such a temperature record due to natural climate variations alone
,” Professor Karoly says.

    In simulations with no increases in greenhouse gases, none of the more than 13,000 model years analysed reach the record temperature observed in 2013.

    And in simulations for 2006 to 2020 with natural variability and human influences, including increases in greenhouse gases, such records occur approximately once in every ten years.

    “Hence, this record could not occur due to natural variability alone and is only possible due to the combination of greenhouse climate change and natural variability on Australian average temperature.”
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

pikaia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 395
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 121
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #260 on: January 03, 2014, 03:23:58 PM »
The sequence of storms hitting the UK recently has been blamed on the steep temperature gradient over North America, and its effect on the jet stream. Is this related to climate change?

idunno

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 194
  • wonders are many
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #261 on: January 03, 2014, 04:58:33 PM »
Hi pikaia,

The below, semi-official, answer:

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2014/01/03/uk-weather-how-stormy-has-it-been-and-why/

"It’s partly due to particularly warm and cold air being squeezed together in the mid-latitudes, where the UK sits. This could be due to nothing more than the natural variability which governs Atlantic weather."

The steep temperature gradient over North America MAY be due to climate change, and is symptomatic of Arctic air escaping to lower latitudes. A WACCY - Warm Arctic Cold Continents - pattern.

Here a realtime map of the jetstream:

http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/250hPa/orthographic=2.56,86.11,304

The high winds towards the UK/France just happens to have been in almost exactly the same place for several weeks.


JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #262 on: January 03, 2014, 05:05:23 PM »
pikaia

idunno is probably more up on this than I am, but I think the general impression is a little more stark than the official weather office explanations as they almost always tend to shy away from any attribution to climate change.

I am not an expert on this and the best info is probably on one of the threads on the ASIB.  But I think the answer is that climate change is definitely a contributing factor.  It is likely that it a significant factor though via the effects of climate change on the melting of the arctic ice, but this conclusion is not yet definitively locked down.

I don't have a link handy but one sees fairly regularly that extreme weather events have increased dramatically over the last 30 years and that alone carries the mark of climate change in that without climate change one would just not see the frequency and intensity of the weather events we are seeing.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ccgwebmaster

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1085
  • Civilisation collapse - what are you doing?
    • View Profile
    • CCG Website
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #263 on: January 03, 2014, 05:27:28 PM »
idunno is probably more up on this than I am, but I think the general impression is a little more stark than the official weather office explanations as they almost always tend to shy away from any attribution to climate change.

I actually find it rather telling that they need to emphasise that it could just be natural variability. They are neither saying it definitely is with that statement (certainly not expressing certainty) and the fact they need to push that assertion at all (in a statement about the weather!) suggests the thought is out there that it could be climate change related - whether amongst the masses realising the weather is out of the ordinary or due to the suggestions of things like the Francis research into jet stream changes.

It's a pity they can't spin it the other way - while we all recognise we cannot absolutely attribute specific events to climate change (and even the scientists cannot go beyond statistical attribution) it is valid to at least say all weather events now have some climate change input and more importantly - it doesn't really matter if it's true or not in the sense that people need to be told that climate change is a serious issue and will cause major problems.

In that last respect it would be strategically worthwhile arguably to tie climate change to bad weather more strongly just to try to reinforce the message amongst the public that climate change is here (it has been for decades now, just strengthening in effects all that time, and strengthening faster more recently) and serious and needs action.

By perpetually playing up the doubts and pushing natural variability as an option the Met Office is supporting the denier side of the arguments - and perhaps intentionally so.

They are certainly failing to use the precautionary principle in continuing to favour non climate change explanations (and more to the point - passing off climate change explanations as natural variability as per their decision a year or so ago that the remarkable rainfall and lack of sunlight was due to jet stream behaviour, with the notable failure to comment that the jet stream was being affected by climate change).

idunno

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 194
  • wonders are many
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #264 on: January 03, 2014, 05:51:10 PM »
It is all going to get a whole pile worse in America; where it seems that the whole Arctic is coming to visit, in the next week or so...

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-outbreak-when-the-north-pole-came-to-ohio-16906

I am not very good at interpreting that jetstream map, but as far as I can tell, wrt the polar vortex, there just isn't one, at the moment. It doesn't seem to have formed at all this year, so Arctic cold can fall out of the Arctic, and will shortly arrive in Ohio.

Is this a result of global warming? It is certainly a predicted consequence of Arctic amplification.

Andrew Freedman's piece above is, as usual from him, excellent.

idunno

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 194
  • wonders are many
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #265 on: January 03, 2014, 06:21:04 PM »
And here's more, an earlier piece which forecasts the currently-arriving US Cryogeddon:

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/arctic-blasts-dominate-december-start-to-january-16902

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #266 on: January 03, 2014, 07:08:20 PM »
Re the American cold weather.

To me the reaction to this is part of the proof that the climate has changed.  And also that people just have short-term memories.

I grew up in Wyoming at about 5200 ft above sea level.  My memories go back to the late 1950's and I have the stories from my parents who grew up there as well who were born there in 1916 and my grandparents who moved there in the late 1800's. 

This "extreme" cold we are having right now used to be standard fare and no one would have thought much about it.  When I was growing up we had temperatures down to around minus 30F every YEAR.  We thought nothing of playing outside for several hours in this kind of weather when we were kids.  Every few years we would near minus 40F and I saw minus 50F two times.  My mother and father had seen minus 60F.  Where my wife grew up in Wyoming it was even colder than where I grew up.  Blizzards were a several times a year occurrence and the only ones which were remarked upon later were the real killers.  Parts of Wyoming were cut from anything but rail traffic for a full month in a blizzard in 1949 for example.  Or when they were bad enough to kill 20 or 30 thousand cows. 

One of my sisters still lives in the house I grew up in and she says they have not hit minus 30F in 20 years.

I live in Prescott, Arizona now and on the news 2 nights ago the weatherman was saying how lucky we are compared to those in the Midwest because it never gets below 0 deg F here.  Naturally I perk up at this statement and grab the laptop.  Prescott's record low turns out to be minus 22F.  But it was a hundred years ago. 

Thus part of the problem with communicating what we are doing to the world. People do not perceive the change which has already happened so they do not properly react to warnings about the change coming.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #267 on: January 03, 2014, 07:29:29 PM »
While I am sure our climate is changing with the jet stream (blocking highs, cutoff lows) acting increasingly strange, this cold outbreak in North America is not unusual. I have lived in Chicago for 50 years and we routinely had periods of sub zero temperatures this time of year in the 1970's and 80's. The winter of 1983 had lows in the -30F range. I remember this well because my oldest was born that winter. This weather feels unusual because the winters have been warming noticeably for several decades.

Loving winter as much as I do, I welcome the cold. I have taken 4 hour hikes along lakefront paths the last 2 days, yesterday in blinding snows. It was beautiful and  peaceful.

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #268 on: January 03, 2014, 09:01:11 PM »
Good on ya!  When I was young (and much more crazy than now) I used to go backpacking in the winter in Wyoming when it was sometimes down to -30F.  And yes I was sometimes so cold I could not sleep, but I did it anyway.  I went mountain climbing in the winter as well.  Survived an avalanche once.  It is a wonder I am still here.  But is was FUN!
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

wili

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3342
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 602
  • Likes Given: 409
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #269 on: January 04, 2014, 11:48:30 PM »
idunno wrote:
Quote
wrt the polar vortex, there just isn't one, at the moment. It doesn't seem to have formed at all this year

Is this unusual? Is this evidence that the polar vortex and the (mid-latitude) jet stream have merged already, or are well into the process of doing so?

There's been some discussion of this here and there, but I don't get a sense that there is a consensus among those who follow these things closely here.

Should we start a thread just on this, or is there one already?
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

idunno

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 194
  • wonders are many
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #270 on: January 05, 2014, 02:39:48 AM »
Hi wili,

The first part of that sentence was equally relevent...

"I am not very good at interpreting that jetstream map, but as far as I can tell, ...etc"

;-)

This is not false modesty. Others here will be able to interpret this odd-looking pattern better than me. There is some discussion on the ASIB under the Weird Weather post.

There is some further discussion on here under "where is the polar vortex" or somesuch, and the Guardian is discussing it here...

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jan/04/us-snowstorm-dead-dangerous-wind-cold

...whence I have thrown in a link to Jennifer Francis's work, via Tenney...

http://climatechangepsychology.blogspot.co.uk/search/label/Jennifer%20Francis
« Last Edit: January 05, 2014, 03:20:41 AM by idunno »

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #271 on: January 05, 2014, 08:36:14 PM »
Interesting article on atmospheric rivers.

Quote
Megastorms Could Drown Massive Portions of California [Preview]

Huge flows of vapor in the atmosphere, dubbed "atmospheric rivers," have unleashed massive floods every 200 years, and climate change could bring more of them

Quote
The intense rainstorms sweeping in from the Pacific Ocean began to pound central California on Christmas Eve in 1861 and continued virtually unabated for 43 days. The deluges quickly transformed rivers running down from the Sierra Nevada mountains along the state’s eastern border into raging torrents that swept away entire communities and mining settlements. The rivers and rains poured into the state’s vast Central Valley, turning it into an inland sea 300 miles long and 20 miles wide. Thousands of people died, and one quarter of the state’s estimated 800,000 cattle drowned. Downtown Sacramento was submerged under 10 feet of brown water filled with debris from countless mudslides on the region’s steep slopes. California’s legislature, unable to function, moved to San Francisco until Sacramento dried out—six months later. By then, the state was bankrupt...

Wow. 

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=megastorms-could-down-massive-portions-of-california

This description is awe inspiring (in a bad way).  We are screwed if this happens again.

http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=atmospheric-rivers-california-megaflood-lessons-from-forgotten-catastrophe
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #272 on: January 05, 2014, 08:53:12 PM »
More on atmospheric rivers

Quote
Abstract

Within the warm conveyor belt of extra-tropical cyclones, atmospheric rivers (ARs) are the key synoptic features which deliver the majority of poleward water vapour transport, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall. ARs are responsible for many of the largest winter floods in the mid-latitudes resulting in major socioeconomic losses; for example, the loss from United Kingdom (UK) flooding in summer/winter 2012 is estimated to be about $1.6 billion in damages. Given the well-established link between ARs and peak river flows for the present day, assessing how ARs could respond under future climate projections is of importance in gauging future impacts from flooding. We show that North Atlantic ARs are projected to become stronger and more numerous in the future scenarios of multiple simulations from five state-of-the-art global climate models (GCMs) in the fifth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The increased water vapour transport in projected ARs implies a greater risk of higher rainfall totals and therefore larger winter floods in Britain, with increased AR frequency leading to more flood episodes. In the high emissions scenario (RCP8.5) for 2074–2099 there is an approximate doubling of AR frequency in the five GCMs. Our results suggest that the projected change in ARs is predominantly a thermodynamic response to warming resulting from anthropogenic radiative forcing.

Quote
An assessment of projections from seven climate models for California [7] suggests an increase in the number of years with high AR frequency, an increase in water vapour transport in ARs and a lengthening of the season in which ARs occur. All of the evidence in that region points towards an enhanced flood risk from ARs ..

Every doomstead should have a row boat?

http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/8/3/034010/article
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

CraigsIsland

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 206
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 4
  • Likes Given: 25
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #273 on: January 06, 2014, 04:57:41 AM »
As someone who lives in Sacramento- we're pretty well aware of this possibility; we just prefer moderation; and we're not in that mode right now. Way below precipitation for the year and forecast is glum for the next two weeks. Incredibly persistent blocking high between Alaska and CA. Also- it was warm enough for t-shirts on 65 degree day. Feels like a very weird April already and very dry. Water restrictions have been put into place for several communities. Let's hope for a normal pattern of rainfall.

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #274 on: January 06, 2014, 09:44:55 PM »
I am sure it was here that I read a link that stated the Southwestern U.S. has received below average precipitation for a decade.

It doesn't help much if you catch up with a 3 month atmospheric river.

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #275 on: January 06, 2014, 10:08:21 PM »
As we mentioned in one of the other threads the Central Valley has subsided as much as 100 ft in some areas from pumping ground water.  If they had a storm like in 1861 where the storm created a lake 300 by 20 miles in the valley imagine what would happen now.  If might be years before the water dried up in some areas.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ccgwebmaster

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 1085
  • Civilisation collapse - what are you doing?
    • View Profile
    • CCG Website
  • Liked: 2
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #276 on: January 06, 2014, 10:41:55 PM »
As we mentioned in one of the other threads the Central Valley has subsided as much as 100 ft in some areas from pumping ground water.  If they had a storm like in 1861 where the storm created a lake 300 by 20 miles in the valley imagine what would happen now.  If might be years before the water dried up in some areas.

If precipitation patterns changed enough you might get permanent or semi-permanent and very variable inland lakes. Imagine trying to practice agriculture or site infrastructure in such a climate?

It's worth noting the later effects of climate change could result in climates we do not currently experience - and perhaps have never experienced during our evolutionary history. The longer term changes will likely be far more profound than just more and worse storms and unusual weather as we are seeing now.

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #277 on: January 07, 2014, 12:59:52 AM »
Is The USA Record Cold Arctic Outbreak Tied To Global Warming?

An article of The Weather Channel, with a reference to a "This is not cool" video with Peter Sinclair, interviews to Dr. Jeff Masters and Jennifer Francis.


http://www.weather.com/news/science/environment/arctic-blast-linked-global-warming-20140106

Interesting to see that the Weather Channels makes a link between the Arctic Blast and Global Warming.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

idunno

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 194
  • wonders are many
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 7
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #278 on: January 07, 2014, 01:36:26 AM »
Hi Juan,

Thanks for that.

That link contains a link to Barnes 2013, new to me, which argues that Francis and Vavrus 2012 is wrong:

http://barnes.atmos.colostate.edu/FILES/MANUSCRIPTS/Barnes_2013_GRL_w_supp.pdf

As I don't understand either, I'll just note that the science of this ain't settled.

I presume, though, that current events make Francis's work look more robust. She's sure getting a lot of press, the poor soul.

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #279 on: January 07, 2014, 06:48:03 AM »

As I don't understand either, I'll just note that the science of this ain't settled.


Hi idunno:

I don't understand them either. From my point of view, it is easy to affirm that global warming is bringing cold weather when a cold front hits water vapor from a warm ocean. Then we can say that global warming helps to produce the water vapor and a strong snow storm can be related to global warming. But in this Arctic blast, I am not able to relate it to global warming, even that I could see the strange behavior on the jet stream.

But thanks for highlight the Barnes' article. I didn't notice this article in my first reading.
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Juan C. García

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 3359
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1279
  • Likes Given: 1127
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #280 on: January 07, 2014, 01:46:27 PM »
Very interesting Neven's post on his Arctic Sea Ice Blog, covering the link of global warming and the USA Arctic Blast:

http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/2014/01/looking-for-winter-weirdness-2014.html#more
Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Jim Hunt

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6268
  • Don't Vote NatC or PopCon, Save Lives!
    • View Profile
    • The Arctic sea ice Great White Con
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 87
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #281 on: January 07, 2014, 03:11:24 PM »
That link contains a link to Barnes 2013, new to me, which argues that Francis and Vavrus 2012 is wrong:

See Chris Reynolds' discussion on this very topic:

http://dosbat.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/francisvavrus-and-slower-jetstream.html
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

werther

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 747
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 31
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #282 on: January 08, 2014, 03:26:48 PM »
Two snippets of some interest I’ve had under my eyes today:

A detail of Skin Surface Temps/SST around Antarctica for 05012014. I’ve noticed the rim of anomalous warmer water around large parts of the continent before through the last years. There may not be much significance. But it could be a signal of upwelling deeper water. With exception of the Weddell Sea, most coasts show widening open water the last few days.
If there’s a relation with the THC, this is one of the signs to look for.

Second, I’ve been playing around with some ‘weekly average CO2 Mauna Loa’ data from ESRL.
Since 01012010 the upwards rush from November to May has become a bit steeper each next year. There’s also indication that it lasts longer. The downslopes, as NH growth season inhales CO2, are more or less the same. OK, maybe there’s more emission. Or the carbon sinks become weaker. Whatever, this is not going in the necessary direction. The weeklies will get over 400ppm third week of march; at least three monthlies will go over 400 this year…

Shared Humanity

  • Guest
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #283 on: January 09, 2014, 11:35:44 PM »
Well....you have your "canary in the coal mine" but you also have your "bats in the belfry".



http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/01/08/dead-bats-fall-from-sky-queensland-australia_n_4563450.html

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #284 on: January 10, 2014, 03:26:21 AM »
SH

It will get worse than the article states now too.

What do bats do?  They consume up to 5 times their weight every night in bugs.  So you wipe out a big percentage of the bats and you are quickly going to have a bug problem.  Organic farmers are going to be hit.

At our farm we had bat houses built onto the sides of the farm buildings just so they would reduce the bug presence.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

ritter

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 573
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 24
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #285 on: January 10, 2014, 05:40:52 PM »
Bats don't just eat bugs. They are also an important pollinator.

Quote
Over 300 species of fruit depend on bats for pollination. These fruits include:

mangoes
bananas
guavas
http://www.fs.fed.us/wildflowers/pollinators/animals/bats.shtml

pikaia

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 395
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 121
  • Likes Given: 39
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #286 on: January 10, 2014, 06:38:57 PM »
Apparently, bat dung also makes good loft insulation. That must help to reduce CO2 emissions!  :)

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #287 on: January 10, 2014, 08:05:23 PM »
Apparently, bat dung also makes good loft insulation. That must help to reduce CO2 emissions!  :)

And you could grow mushrooms in it.  A win win situation?  :o
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JackTaylor

  • Frazil ice
  • Posts: 209
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 1
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #288 on: January 11, 2014, 11:27:15 PM »
Bat Dung ! ! It is not an inconsequential item of history.

Only a couple of centuries back, bat guano (interesting subject) was a prized agriculture fertilizer.
Still touted by some organic gardeners, but be aware of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histoplasmosis

Some folks are of the belief because moisture causes leeching of ammonia (nitrogen) from bat guano during trade/distribution, degrading quality, to stay out of ship bilge water it was marked in containers and was the infamous product labeled
Ship High In Transit.

Contributes to our "vernacular expressions" ? ?
« Last Edit: January 12, 2014, 12:23:28 PM by JackTaylor »

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 50

Jmo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 38
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #290 on: January 14, 2014, 04:45:07 AM »
Hi all
I'm sure the "winter weirdness" and links to GW will be an ongoing debate.  This blog seems fairly articulate.  is this another example of simply another opinion?  seems to be able to back up claims with long-term observations re historical weather events and the possible skewing of circumpolar vortex observations...
I am a concerned observer, not a climate scientist.  :D

http://cliffmass.blogspot.com.au/

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #291 on: January 14, 2014, 06:37:20 PM »
Jmo

Yes Prof Mass is an articulate author and seems to be an expert in Meteorology, but perhaps not climate science.  There is a difference between the two.  Though it is a lot better having him talk about it instead of someone without a relevant degree who thinks they know it all.

Everything he talks about and tons more can be found in the various topics of the Forum and the ASIB.  His opinion that climate change is not effecting the jet stream is represented there as well as contrary opinions.  It seems the jury is out still on this subject.

Quote
...But a few researchers came up with a hypothesis that as the poles warm the jet stream would weaken and that would result in more waviness of the jet stream.  However, recent work by Professor Elizabeth Barnes of Colorado State has shown that there were methodological deficiencies in the research suggesting increased jet undulations with global warming. And that there is no observational evidence of increased waviness.  Furthermore, there is little evidence that the jet approaching North America has weakened recently. 
...

Note that there are already critiques of Barnes work out there questioning her methodology.  Lots to learn here still.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

Jmo

  • New ice
  • Posts: 38
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 3
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #292 on: January 15, 2014, 12:23:58 AM »
Thanks JimD.  :)  Just as I thought.  It seems to me that the likelihood of AGW not having an impact is quite low, but as you say, there is still much to learn.  I asked the question, since it was one of the better blogs I'd seen rationally arguing that it may not be as portrayed by "alarmists" or "skeptics" = the authors view that both are wrong.  What's concerning is the lack of change based on what we already know.  I keep reflecting on the mantra that if we are wrong and do positive things, we have only improved our world.  If we are right and do little (or nothing)...
It should be a no-brainer!   ;D

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 50

Gray-Wolf

  • Grease ice
  • Posts: 948
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 131
  • Likes Given: 458
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #294 on: January 16, 2014, 04:47:20 PM »
I wonder if the lead up to the 2010 earthquake messed with the internal plumbing in the region?
KOYAANISQATSI

ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
VIRESCIT VULNERE VIRTUS

Laurent

  • Young ice
  • Posts: 2546
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 13
  • Likes Given: 50
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #295 on: January 16, 2014, 05:55:13 PM »
May be or these lakes are connected with the sea ?

TerryM

  • First-year ice
  • Posts: 6002
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 893
  • Likes Given: 5
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #296 on: January 16, 2014, 06:55:28 PM »
Subsistance?

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #297 on: January 16, 2014, 07:22:10 PM »
I am reading a book right now about the paleo-climate history of water in the Western US right now and it has a description of similar effects.

It could be just enough increased rainfall that the natural process of hydration of the soil, filling of aquifers and change in evaporative effects has crossed a tipping point and the lake is growing towards a new normal.

This process has repeated many times in the Western US (we are in the opposite direction right now) as the climate has shifted as we went in and out of glacial periods.  A large percentage of the Great Basin was covered by very large lakes at different times in the past.  Now it is bone dry deserts and heading towards even greater dryness.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #298 on: January 19, 2014, 05:47:22 PM »
2013 Australia temperature extremes

http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2014/01/off-charts-2013-australias-hottest-year.html

And 2014 is off to a good start too.
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

JimD

  • Nilas ice
  • Posts: 2272
    • View Profile
  • Liked: 6
  • Likes Given: 0
Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #299 on: January 20, 2014, 01:21:05 AM »
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein