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Author Topic: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change  (Read 1198562 times)

werther

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #850 on: November 07, 2015, 09:09:04 PM »
Looking at the different climatology pages on Wetteronline it occurred to me that warm anomalies are quite abundant. So I put these first week of November mean temp graphs together:



That makes a nice overview, doesn’t it? I could speculate on this for a while. But I leave it to speak for itself.

Chuck Yokota

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #851 on: November 08, 2015, 02:34:11 AM »
An unprecedented second tropical cyclone is headed for Yemen, a week after Cyclone Chapala.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/rare-cyclone-bears-beleaguered-yemen-megh-socotra-weather-151107221838657.html
Quote
Locals on Yemen's beleaguered Socotra Island have taken emergency shelter for the second time in a week as yet another tropical cyclone tracks towards them packing potentially devastating winds and rain.

Cyclone Megh, which formed in the Arabian Sea earlier in the week, appears set to hit Socotra directly on Sunday morning as it travels west towards the Yemeni mainland.

It comes hot on the heels of Cyclone Chapala, which killed a number of people and caused widespread damage a week ago as it brushed past Socotra on a similar path from the Arabian Sea.

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #852 on: November 08, 2015, 04:56:34 AM »
That's freakin crazy!

No cyclone for nearly 100 years, then two in a week!!

Does anyone need any more evidence that there have been some fundamental shifts in the basic workings of the planetary climactic system??
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #853 on: November 08, 2015, 11:23:06 AM »
The linked reference presents a summary of a special issue on weather and climate extremes (see also a link at the end of this post to the other references in that special issue):

John E. Hay , David Easterling, Kristie L. Ebi, Akio Kitoh & Martin Parry (2015), "Conclusion to the special issue: Observed and projected changes in weather and climate extremes", Weather and Climate Extremes, doi:10.1016/j.wace.2015.11.002


http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2212094715300463


Abstract: "Weather and climate extremes affect every facet of society-economies, environments and cultures. As a result, policy makers, planners, decision makers and other stakeholders are increasingly seeking information on the nature of such extreme events on time scales from hours to days, to seasons and to decades.

This Special Issue has presented a combination of original research and assessments of earlier work in relation to weather and climate extremes. The papers covered two major themes: (i) detecting and attributing changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in the observational record, as well as projecting changes in such extremes at regional and local scales; and (ii) examples of the impacts and other consequences of both the historic and anticipated changes in extreme weather and climate events, as well as policy implications and practical applications.

The papers in this Special Issue have shown the nature of the scientific and related challenges, the progress made to date, and the challenges, opportunities and constraints yet to be addressed. They have contributed to increased understanding of where, how and why such events manifest themselves, now and into the future. Such insights increase the capacity to manage the risks associated with these events, and thereby reduce the consequences that society might otherwise have suffered."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #854 on: November 08, 2015, 04:23:34 PM »
That's freakin crazy!

No cyclone for nearly 100 years, then two in a week!!

Does anyone need any more evidence that there have been some fundamental shifts in the basic workings of the planetary climactic system??

 Indeed.   +1
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #855 on: November 08, 2015, 04:34:53 PM »
Omega Block!  Record heat in Paris, right before the climate conference....

Quote
A dangerous pattern of long-term heat is setting up over Europe this week, and forecast models suggest it could stretch beyond the weekend. Temperatures are running up to 30 degrees above average and long-term heat records are falling in the U.K and France.

The unusual aspect of this heatwave is not only how early it’s coming — heat of this magnitude is more typical later in the summer — but how long it seems likely to last.

England experienced its hottest July day on record Wednesday as the temperature at London Heathrow soared to 98.1 degrees (36.7 Celsius) according to the U.K. Met Office, breaking the previous record set in 2006.

Several locations across France established their hottest temperature ever recorded in any month. In Paris, the mercury surged to 103.5 degrees (39.7 Celsius) on Wednesday afternoon, which is the second highest temperature the city has ever recorded, according to Meteo-France.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/06/30/europe-is-just-beginning-a-sweltering-multi-day-heatwave-this-is-whats-behind-it/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #856 on: November 08, 2015, 05:14:17 PM »
Quote
@billmckibben: Megh, in Yemen, is 28th Cat 3 or stronger cyclone/hurricane in N. Hem. this season--the old record was 20. #hotnewworld H/t @philklotzbach

https://twitter.com/billmckibben/status/663372035507273728
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Pmt111500

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #857 on: November 08, 2015, 05:15:25 PM »
Yes the summer was pretty hot in Central Europe... Here's the current anomaly map for the latest week, still somewhat over averages: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/wctan1.png

Oops, the link updates, 1-7.11.2015 is pretty high yes.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2015, 05:28:44 AM by Pmt111500 »

BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #858 on: November 08, 2015, 05:32:44 PM »
For the daily CET record in England, which goes back to 1772, the 6th was a record warm daily average, the 7th equaled the record warmest. The next 3 days (9th to 11th) all have the potential to set new daily records too.

All the daily data undergo revisions after the end of the months, so these records may change.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #859 on: November 10, 2015, 03:00:02 AM »
Per the attached 63 million mid-west American may be subjected to severe storm activity this week:

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/2015/1109/Severe-storm-warning-for-63-million-Americans-this-week
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #860 on: November 11, 2015, 02:47:41 AM »
Spring Will Come Three Weeks Early in 2100 in U.S. Thanks to Climate Change
http://www.newsweek.com/early-spring-shorter-winter-thanks-climate-change-382968
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #861 on: November 11, 2015, 02:18:08 PM »
Flurry of Hawaiian Hurricanes Shows Climate Fingerprints
Quote
“The odds of a year like 2014 are going up,” Vecchi said. “Our assessment is that in the 1800s, the odds of years like 2014 was substantially lower than it is now. So the fraction of attributable risk is something around 90 percent.”
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hawaiian-hurricanes-climate-19656
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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #862 on: November 11, 2015, 02:28:05 PM »
In the Central England Temperature (CET) series, the minimum temperature for today (13.2C) is higher than the record high daily mean for today (13.0C) which was set in 2004. Pretty remarkable if it remains after quality control at the end of the month
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Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #863 on: November 11, 2015, 06:28:42 PM »
In the Central England Temperature (CET) series, the minimum temperature for today (13.2C) is higher than the record high daily mean for today (13.0C) which was set in 2004. Pretty remarkable

That reminds me of March 21st, 2012, in Marquette, Michigan (USA).  The old RECORD HIGH for that day was 49 degrees F.  But that day....the LOW FOR THE DAY was 52 degrees F, which was HIGHER THAN THE OLD RECORD HIGH OF 49.  The new record high for that day, was 81 degrees F, which was 32 degrees warmer than the prior record high.

And just think....we have "booked" weird stuff like this for the next 30 years or more.
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #864 on: November 11, 2015, 07:07:14 PM »
The linked Robert Scribbler articles discusses reasons why we can expect more weird weather this coming boreal winter:

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/11/10/more-weather-weirding-godzilla-el-nino-vs-a-mean-polar-amplification/

Extract: "Why is this temperature anomaly pattern so darn weird? It all has to do with atmospheric physics. During times of strong El Ninos, the temperature difference between the poles and the Equator tends to increase as the Equator warms. This, in turn, strengthens the Jet Stream. A strong Jet Stream, for its part, tends to keep cold air locked away at the poles. So, ironically, as the Equator warms with El Nino, the poles have a tendency to cool off a bit.
So far, for the Fall of 2015, this isn’t really what we’ve seen. Sure, the Equator has warmed up quite a bit. Concordantly, the Jet Stream appears to have strengthened somewhat. We still have a big ridge that tends to keep forming over the ridiculously and persistently warm Northeastern Pacific, but it’s not stretching all the way into the Arctic like it did last year. Meanwhile, Jet Stream velocities and related storm track intensities are hitting rather high values. Arctic Oscillation has also recently hit extremely high positive values. A strongly positive Arctic Oscillation traditionally tends to result in cold air remaining locked away in the Arctic, but considering the temperature anomaly maps, Arctic cold hasn’t really been all that cold of late.
….
All in all, this pattern points to more and more weather weirding on tap for this Winter. Jet Streams and storm tracks may run further to the north as a result — especially in the areas of the Pacific Northwest and in Northern Europe. Troughs may also tend to dig a bit deeper along the Central and Eastern US and on out into the North Atlantic. This is not exactly the forecast we would expect with such a strongly positive Arctic Oscillation. But the related cool air pool has retreated so far north as to, at least for now, not fully result in a strong El Nino + strong Arctic Oscillation related weather pattern. Instead, for now, what we are seeing is a weird kind of hybrid weather pattern that appears to be incorporating the influences of a Monster El Nino, of ongoing polar amplification, of the cool pool in the North Atlantic, of the abnormally warm Barents Sea, and of the Hot Blob still firmly entrenched in the Northeastern Pacific."
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #865 on: November 11, 2015, 10:29:59 PM »
As is a follow-up on my Reply #859, the attached image and linked article indicates severe Thunder Storm Warnings for much of the US Mid-west:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/11/11/winter-storm-blasts-colorado-threatens-midwest/75568302/

“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
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jbatteen

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #866 on: November 12, 2015, 06:16:23 AM »
A very unusual Fall season unfolding in Minnesota and surrounding areas.  We have yet to have a hard freeze in Northfield, about 45 miles south of Minneapolis.  There are still flowers around.  The trees have lost their leaves but the understory is still green.  I've never seen anything like it this late in the year.

From November 9th
http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2015/11/balmy-again-tuesday-tracking-wednesdays-soaker/
Quote
    62 degrees: high temperature at MSP Airport Monday afternoon
    45 degrees: average high for November 9
    +17 degrees vs. average Monday
    +11.5 degrees vs. average so far this November at MSP Airport
    November 18: average date of first 1-inch snowfall at MSP Airport

From November 4th:
http://blogs.mprnews.org/updraft/2015/11/november-lite-early-whispers-of-el-nino/
Quote
Today brings another day of unseasonably mild temperatures across Minnesota as our weather pattern continues to scream September.

A November reality check arrives late tomorrow with the next cold front. The longer range forecast whispers El Nino as we stare as a murky (and mild?) December forecast through the long range weather lens in a few weeks.

Expect increasing shots of seasonably cold air, punctuated by more warm fronts ahead.

    +13.3 degrees – temps at Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport vs. average so far this November
    2008 – last time we saw 70s in November at MSP
    1975 – last time we saw three days in the 70s in November at MSP

The other weather shoe is never too far away this time of year at 45 degrees north latitude. Our next cold front sweeps across Minnesota Thursday with scattered rain and a clap of thunder. Brisk northwest winds behind the advancing front plunge temperatures back to near average Friday and Saturday.

Yes, our cold fronts are barely average this fall. The next warm front arrives with a breezy Sunday. Temps pushing back into the mid and upper 50s are still a good 10 degrees warmer than average for Nov. 8-9.

Whispers of El Nino already here?

With each passing mild day turned mild week, shades of El Nino begin to weave a tapestry that could become a trend in Minnesota this winter. The Twin Cities National Weather Service agrees with my weather eye, seeing upper air patterns that look suspiciously El Nino.

As I put together my winter forecast this week, I still think El Nino will be the dominant player in our winter weather overall. All of the medium range guidance screams mild.

The University of Maine’s Climate Reanalyzer project brings yet anther blob of unseasonably mild air across the Midwest next week.

NOAA’s experimental three-week temperature forecast product keeps a mild bias overall for most of the United States through November. Cool in the southwest and mild across the northern U.S.? If it quacks like an El Nino duck.

The raw model output continues to favor temps much above average into late November. Highs in the 50s, and even 60 degrees leading up to a potentially brown Thanksgiving?

Stay tuned.

wili

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #867 on: November 12, 2015, 04:39:43 PM »
Good points.

I've lost track now of the number of times on a 60 something degree day (that should have been 40s or colder) that I said, "Well, this is surely going to be the last day this warm till spring comes!" only to have it get that warm again in a few days.

(Right now, though, I can't complain much, since my furnace went out a few days ago, and it will be a few more days till it's replaced.)
"A force de chercher de bonnes raisons, on en trouve; on les dit; et après on y tient, non pas tant parce qu'elles sont bonnes que pour ne pas se démentir." Choderlos de Laclos "You struggle to come up with some valid reasons, then cling to them, not because they're good, but just to not back down."

Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #868 on: November 12, 2015, 06:57:39 PM »
Looks like the long term forecast for the upper Midwest over the next few months is for more mild weather.

Here's a link to a graph of New Record Highs....to New Record Lows for November in the US.

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-daily-record-high-temps-to.html

Now...we're only 9 days into the month on this graph....so things can certainly change.  BUT....November is off to a "toasty" start.

Two other things to note:  The number of new record high MINIMUM's (ie new "record high lows")is twice that of new record high MAXIMUM's.  In other words.....it isn't cooling off nearly as much at night.  What warmth there is....is hanging around over night.

And below is a graph BY YEAR of the ratio of new record highs to new record lows in the US.  It looks like 2016 (next year) has a good probability of blowing away the temperature record that we will likely set this year in the US:

http://climatechangegraphs.blogspot.com/2012/08/ratio-of-new-record-high-temps-to-new_30.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #869 on: November 12, 2015, 10:20:49 PM »
Hurricane Kate formed unusually far north and west over unusually warm Atlantic waters; remnants to join first named UK winter storm: Abigail
 Severe Weather Threatens Midwest U.S.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-kate-races-across-atlantic-severe-weather-threatens-midwest
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bluesky

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #870 on: November 13, 2015, 12:25:26 AM »
last weekend was such an unusual freak weather in France according to French metoffice (meteofrance)
  • temps often 10 to 14 degrees C above average
  • record were broken allover the country except in the South East
  • record reached two days in a raw on Saturday and then beaten again on Sunday
  • 29C at Pointe Socoa (Pyrenees Atlantiques) record for November all over France
Saturday 7th despite a cloudy sky Samedi many November monthly record were broken :  Paris (21,6°C), Rennes (21,4°C), Rouen (20,1°C), Mulhouse (24,3°C), Troyes (22,6°C), Annecy (21,3°C), Chamonix (21,1°C), Clermont-Ferrand (24,6°C), Mende (21,2°C), Brive-la-Gaillarde (25,6°C), Agen (25,4°C), par exemple. Many of the previous record were very recent (all saints 2015 or 2014)
Biarritz (27.8C) and Dax (28.1) and Bordeaux (26.7C) beat their record by more than 1C
At  Mulhouse (Alsace), the former record 21,3°C dated back 7 novembre 1955.  It was beaten 3 times in 4 days. the 5th (21,8°C), the 7th (24,3°C) the 8th (23,5°C). At  Biscarrosse (Landes), the former record 1 novembre 1999 (24,4°C) was beaten the 6 at 25,7°C, then the 8th at 27,7°C !

http://www.meteofrance.fr/actualites/30543730-douceur-inedite-sur-le-pays-ce-week-end

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #871 on: November 13, 2015, 12:59:22 AM »
In the Austrian town where I live the November temperature record was broken a couple of days ago and now stands at 24.4 °C. Apparently because of atmospheric blocking over Central Europe:

Quote
Stabile Hochdruck-Wetterlagen über Mitteleuropa kommen im Herbst in vielen Jahren vor. Die aktuelle Wettersituation hat aber einige Besonderheiten, erklärt Podesser: „Ungewöhnlich ist, dass diese stabile Wetterlage mit rund drei Wochen sehr lange hält. Noch ungewöhnlicher ist, dass es selbst in den typischen Nebelregionen sonnig ist. Denn die Luft ist extrem trocken."

'It's unusual for the weather to remain stable like this for three weeks'.

Our PV solar installation has been producing electricity like crazy, already having produced more KwH than all of November last year.  :o
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #872 on: November 13, 2015, 02:33:48 AM »
November this year here is much warmer than October was - feels very odd.

Did you have snow last year? That seems to be the deciding factor for this time of year for my system. Also so far things seem to average out over the course of the year - had a huge July followed by marginal August and Sept. Only have 2 full years to go by though but with all the ups and downs the total annual production ended up pretty close.


Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #873 on: November 19, 2015, 02:02:07 PM »
It seems trees have declared a war on humans.  Can't blame them.

Storm Damage Prompts State of Emergency in Washington
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/storm-damage-prompts-state-emergency-washington-n466136
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #874 on: November 20, 2015, 04:50:12 PM »
Record power outages after windstorm hits Spokane, killing 2
Quote
A brutal storm packing near hurricane-force winds slammed into the Inland Northwest late Tuesday afternoon, toppling hundreds of trees that killed two women in Spokane, blowing off roofs, grounding airplanes and causing record numbers of power outages.

As the storm hit, winds were so strong that emergency-management leaders in Spokane County asked all residents to take shelter where they were.

One woman was killed by a falling tree near the 1500 block of West 14th Avenue on the South Hill. Another woman was killed when a tree fell on a car 5 miles east of Cheney on state Highway 904.

More than 206,000 customers lost power. Avista officials said it will take days to restore it all.

Spokane roads and neighborhoods were choked with downed trees and blinded by power outages.
http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/northwest/record-power-outages-after-71-mph-windstorm-pummels-spokane-killing-2/

Solar Roadways (yes, they are still hard at work developing improved panels, at lower cost) comments that "this week's storm caused the worst outages in utility company Avista's 126-year history."
(Click on the Solar Roadways icon in this link to go to their Facebook page.)
https://www.facebook.com/solarroadways/posts/10153042081392126:0
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #875 on: November 20, 2015, 05:02:05 PM »
Lack of snow costing millions of dollars, forcing production location and schedule changes, in the Hollywood film industry.
https://www.thewrap.com/global-warming-sparks-hollywood-production-meltdown/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #876 on: November 22, 2015, 03:14:56 PM »
Human-caused changes in climate played a role in 14 of 28 storms, droughts, and other 2014 extreme weather events investigated by global scientists.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/2015/11/151105-climate-weather-disasters-drought-storms/
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bligh8

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #877 on: November 23, 2015, 08:19:07 PM »
Since record keeping began in 1966 Hurricane Catarina was the only Hurricane to develop in the
South Atlantic and occurred in March 2004.  The link to agw was unclear, citing more research
needed to be done.

From within the linked article:
 
“Casualty and Damage Statistics
According to the State of Santa Catarina Civil Defense (information available at the site www., in an area with approximately 400,000 inhabitants and 154,000 buildings, 23 cities were severely damaged.
Over 33,000 people lost their homes and 40,000 buildings were severely damaged. Roof damage in some cities reached about 95% of the houses. Four persons lost their lives and 7 people disappeared in small boats along the coast. Agriculture damage reached about US$40 million mostly in rice fields (25%), corn (90%) and banana (70%), with 25, 90 and 70%, respectively, production loss in the area affected by the storm. A large number of industries were affected (approximately 1800) and their activities were interrupted for up to a month. Approximately 8600 people lost their jobs as a result of the damages in the industrial and commercial sectors. Roads were blocked and had to be repaved. The State of Rio Grande do Sul, just to the south of Santa Catarina, was also hit by severe winds. About 31,000 people were affected in Rio Grande do Sul along the northern coast and 4500 houses were damaged. A total of about 80% of the schools interrupted classes for up to 15 days.”

http://severe.worldweather.org/iwtc/document/Topic_2a_Pedro_Silva_Dias.pdf

AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #878 on: November 24, 2015, 12:55:28 AM »
The linked article cites a new UN report indicating the extreme weather events are now occurring at almost twice the frequency of two decades ago:

http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/11/23/us-climatechange-disasters-idINKBN0TC1EG20151123

Extract: "Weather-related disasters such as floods and heatwaves have occurred almost daily in the past decade, almost twice as often as two decades ago, with Asia being the hardest hit region, a U.N. report said on Monday."

See also:
http://www.un.org/apps/news/story.asp?NewsID=52627#.VlPba_mrSUk

Extract: "A new report issued today by the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR) shows that over the last 20 years, 90 per cent of major disasters have been caused by 6,457 recorded floods, storms, heatwaves, droughts and other weather-related events."
« Last Edit: November 24, 2015, 04:51:38 AM by AbruptSLR »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #879 on: November 25, 2015, 03:00:17 AM »
U.S.:  A very late tropical cyclone plus an early ice event is leading to a potentially bizarre holiday weekend weather potpourri.

Bizarre Thanksgiving Weekend: Ice Storm and a Hurricane
Quote
There have been only three other eastern Pacific storms of record dating to 1949 that formed later in the season than Sandra did on November 24. Sandra is the latest storm in the eastern Pacific since Hurricane Winnie was a December oddball in 1983.
...
Seeing the potential for Sandra to still be a tropical depression early Saturday as little as 500 miles away from an area of freezing rain is a cool, weather geeky factoid you can share either while trying to keep your relatives awake after Thanksgiving dinner or while standing in a long line on Black Friday.

And, by the way, if you think hurricanes can't feed into winter storms, remember Superstorm Sandy's wintry side just over three years ago?
http://www.weather.com/storms/winter/news/ice-storm-tropical-storm-hurricane-sandra-thanksgiving-black-friday-2015
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #880 on: November 25, 2015, 02:10:44 PM »
Weather disasters occurred almost daily over last decade, UN says
Floods and heatwaves frequency almost double in two decades, but scientists say ‘jury is out’ on how much is due to climate change.
Quote
While geophysical causes such as earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis often grab the headlines, they only make up one in 10 of the disasters trawled from a database defined by the impact.

The report, called The Human Cost of Weather Related Disasters, found there were an average of 335 weather-related disasters annually between 2005 and August this year, up 14% from 1995-2004 and almost twice as many as in the years from 1985 to 1994.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/nov/23/weather-disasters-occurred-almost-daily-over-last-decade-un-says
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #881 on: November 26, 2015, 08:19:25 PM »
Remarkable Hurricane Sandra exploded into a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds overnight.   Sandra is also now the latest Category 4 storm ever observed in either the Eastern Pacific or the Atlantic.  Sandra is the first major hurricane in the Western Hemisphere that has ever been observed on Thanksgiving Day.
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/an-unprecedented-thanksgiving-visitor-a-category-4-hurricane
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #882 on: December 03, 2015, 09:54:46 PM »
India army on war footing to rescue survivors as flood toll nears 270
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CHENNAI, India, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The Indian military evacuated more than 2,000 residents stranded in the southern state of Tamil Nadu on Thursday as the death toll from flooding rose to 269 after the heaviest cloudburst in over a century.

Forecasts of more rain over the next 48 hours forced the army to work on a war footing to rescue survivors trapped in inundated parts of Chennai.

India's fourth most populous city saw only slight rains on Thursday, but water levels had not receded since a day earlier, when a massive release of water from a brimming reservoir swamped low-lying areas of the city.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has blamed climate change for the deluge, travelled to Chennai to get a first-hand view of a rescue effort that has so far been halting.
...
The cloudburst earlier this week dumped as much as 345 mm (14 inches) of rain over 24 hours.
http://www.trust.org/item/20151203083236-g6fw0/

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/southern-india-major-flooding_565f3d5ce4b08e945fedb130
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #883 on: December 04, 2015, 09:12:22 PM »
More:
Southern India Is Hit With Deadly Flooding After Wettest December Day In 100 Years
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Extreme rainfall in southern India has killed nearly 270 people and displaced about a million more, as flooding causes major problems in the state of Tamil Nadu.

Chennai, the capital of Tamil Nadu and fourth-most-populous city in India, experienced its wettest December day in over a century this week, according to AccuWeather. That follows a November that brought the city 300 percent more rain than is usual for the month. Monsoon winds typically bring rainfall to Chennai during October, November, and December, but rainfall this year has been exceptional — the city and surrounding region has gotten more than 11 inches of rainfall over the last several days, which, as the LA Times reports, is about 75 percent of the average for the whole monsoon season.
http://thinkprogress.org/climate/2015/12/04/3728251/chennai-flooding/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #884 on: December 05, 2015, 01:26:20 AM »
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #885 on: December 05, 2015, 01:12:30 PM »
A pretty serious flooding situation unfolding in western Ireland and northern England.

Red warnings have been issues both the British Met Office and Met Eireann. Flooding already occurring in many area, with up to 100mm of rain expected to fall still up to tomorrow morning. Last I've heard, some villages are being evacuated in northern England.
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #886 on: December 05, 2015, 02:17:46 PM »
South Indian floods kill hospital patients, but rains ease
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Flood waters that had started to recede began rising again around noon after a new cloudburst that sent residents running for shelter under trees and in shopfronts. Parts of the flat, coastal city remained under as much as eight feet (2.5 meters) of water for a fourth day.

Many residents have spent days stranded on rooftops since more than 345 mm (14 inches) of rain fell over 24 hours on Dec. 1, the most since the British ruled the city in Tamil Nadu state, then known as Madras, 100 years ago.
http://www.trust.org/item/20151204080738-yvbus/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #887 on: December 05, 2015, 02:23:06 PM »
In Ireland, more than 2,000 homes expected to be without power overnight after a month’s rainfall fell in just under 36 hours.

Storm Desmond: flood warnings issued across UK and Ireland
Met Office forecasts heavy rain and high winds in Scotland, northern areas of England and Wales
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/dec/05/flood-warnings-issued-across-uk-and-ireland-as-storm-desmond-arrives
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #888 on: December 05, 2015, 02:28:10 PM »
96-hour forecast shows a turbulent Atlantic Ocean with multiple strong storms.
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #889 on: December 05, 2015, 06:38:13 PM »
Durham police: 'Move possessions upstairs'

LIVE:  Storm Desmond hits UK
This page automatically updates:
http://www.bbc.com/news/live/uk-35015243
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #890 on: December 05, 2015, 06:45:24 PM »
Pacific Storm Parade to Lash Northwest With Flooding Rain, Mountain Snow Into Next Week
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This is a pattern that was noticeably, largely absent last fall, winter and spring along the West Coast. Blocking high pressure aloft diverted the jet stream away from the U.S. West Coast last season, leading to the record-paltry Cascades and Sierra spring snowpack.
http://www.weather.com/forecast/regional/news/ice-wind-snow-rain-northwest-dec-2015
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #891 on: December 05, 2015, 06:55:45 PM »
Precipitable Water is the depth of water in a column of the atmosphere, if all the water in that column were precipitated as rain. As a depth, the precipitable water is measured in millimeters or inches.

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@NWSOPC: CIRA layered PW helps visualize #AtmosphericRiver; easy to see AR stretching from the Caribbean to Ireland/UK! #GRPG https://t.co/AdwbLsyyIi

https://twitter.com/nwsopc/status/673164464687071233
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #892 on: December 05, 2015, 08:36:28 PM »
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The 2015 hurricane season in the Atlantic, eastern Pacific, and central Pacific basins ended on November 30, according to the meteorological calendar. It was a year that brought many storms that defied usual expectations and destroyed parts of the record books.

The Atlantic was quieter than usual, the second year in a row with below-average storm activity. Meanwhile, hurricanes and cyclones in 2015 menaced regions that do not usually see them: the central Pacific Ocean and the Arabian Sea (northwest Indian Ocean). The entirety of the Pacific Ocean, from Asia to the Americas was teeming with El Niño-influenced storms.

Thirty major hurricanes, typhoons, and cyclones occurred in the northern hemisphere in 2015; the previous record was 23 (set in 2004). Twenty-five of those storms reached category 4 or 5, well beyond the previous record of 18.
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=87092
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silkman

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #893 on: December 06, 2015, 09:01:38 AM »
Folk in the North of England are made of pretty stern stuff. Just look how the kids in Cumbria responded to Desmond, the latest 100 year storm to hit the Lake District...... Six years after the last one!

Watch what's going on behind the lads on the bikes:






Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #894 on: December 06, 2015, 02:47:57 PM »
These comments from the last 24 hours pretty much say it all about the increasingly severe weather and the cost of climate change:

-----
Forecaster Phil Avery explains Storm Desmond's path

We talk about hurricanes and the eye of the storm - the centre of Storm Desmond never came very close to us. Yesterday it was to the east of Iceland and it's continued on that eastward journey. What we have is a trailing front, with a lot of warm moist air ahead of that, which has just brought rain into Cumbria and parts of southern Scotland and northern England.

------
About 55,000 homes in Lancaster are without power this morning after an electricity substation was flooded in last night's heavy rain.

According to the BBC's Emma Stanley, Electricity North West said flood defences upgraded five years ago to cope with a "one-in-a-hundred years flood" were breached late last night.

---------
@EllisButcher: The cost of the #CumbriaFloods of 2009 was put at £276M. I'd say we will be well over that. Record breaking rain, river levels & damage.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #895 on: December 06, 2015, 11:17:58 PM »
That north western area of England/western Scotland has no useful aquifers, its either keep it in a lake/reservoir or lose it. So the lakes are kept full and can rapidly overflow. With 340mm rain and no way to delay the runoff floods are almost as inevitable as water shortages would be if the reservoirs were kept empty to cope with these events.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #896 on: December 11, 2015, 09:33:00 PM »
Storm Desmond rainfall partly due to climate change, scientists conclude
Quote
Manmade climate change was partly responsible for Storm Desmond’s torrential rain which devastated parts of Scotland, the Lake District and Northern Ireland, scientists have concluded.

The researchers at Oxford University and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) calculated that climate change had made the flooding event 40% more likely, with the estimate of the increased likelihood ranging between 5% and 80%.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/11/storm-desmond-rainfall-flooding-partly-due-to-climate-change-scientists-conclude
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #897 on: December 14, 2015, 01:14:00 AM »
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If #NonaPH hits the Philippines it will mark the first time the country has been hit by a cyclone in every month of a year #climatechange

https://twitter.com/ptmitchell/status/676015893344727040
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #898 on: December 14, 2015, 01:29:35 PM »
Typhoon Melor Slams the Philippines, Sends 725,000 Fleeing
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MANILA, Philippines — About 725,000 people fled their homes and communities braced for coastal floods of up to 13 feet as Typhoon Melor slammed into the eastern Philippines on Monday, officials said.

The government's weather bureau said the typhoon was packing winds of 95 miles per hour with gusts of up to 115 mph, and heavy to intense rain within its 185-mile diameter.
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/typhoon-melor-slams-philippines-sends-725-000-fleeing-n479396
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #899 on: December 19, 2015, 12:11:40 PM »
An article by John Mason at Skeptical Science on Storm Desmond:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/december-2015-uk-floods.html

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On December 4th-5th 2015, the Atlantic was dominated by a huge low pressure system with a deep centre of around 940 millibars situated over Iceland. A second low at 987 millibars was situated several hundred miles off Newfoundland. The resultant Warm Conveyor to the south of these big extratropical cyclones stretched across the Atlantic, from well to the south-west of the Azores right up to NW Europe. Within the warm conveyor, an Atmospheric River piled head-on into Ireland, Northern England and Wales. Rain started to fall over the Cumbrian mountains on the evening of the 4th. By the evening of the 5th, the UK 24-hour rainfall record had been smashed, with 341 mm (13.42 inches) of rain falling at Honister and 322 mm (12.67 inches) at Thirlmere, where an event-total over two days of 405 mm (15.94 inches) was also recorded – a 48-hour UK record.

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