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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #900 on: December 19, 2015, 08:19:46 PM »
40°C is 104°F;  25°C is 77°F.

'Climate change at work' as Adelaide swelters through another hot night
Quote
Adelaide's ongoing severe heatwave is a first for this time of year and the "sort of signal you will see with climate change", a Bureau of Meteorology head says.

South Australia acting regional director John Nairn said Adelaide had never experienced a sequence of four 40 degree Celsius days during December.

The city sweltered through another hot night last night, with the mercury dropping to only 25C by about 6:30am.

Temperatures peaked in the city at 41C on Wednesday, with maximums forecast to be above 40C for the next three days.

Today's maximum is forecast at 42C with minimum temperatures predicted to fall to 26C overnight.

"It is an unusual event," Mr Nairn said.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-12-17/climate-change-at-work-in-adelaide/7035926
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mati

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #901 on: December 20, 2015, 02:01:48 AM »
avalanche on svalbard kills one during major storm:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35144236
and so it goes

Tor Bejnar

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #902 on: December 20, 2015, 04:43:07 AM »
I almost wrote about the presumed causal snowstorm of that avalanche, but the article quoted someone as saying it was biggest storm in 30 years.  A few hours ago I thought "30-year storm" isn't too weird. 

But thinking about it again, I wonder if any snowstorm today should be considered 'wierd'.  (OK, it still snows at high latitudes in the winter (and high elevations everywhere).  And will for the rest of my life.)

Yesterday Buffalo, NY had it first snow (0.1 inch or more) of the year (edit) season, about 2 weeks later than the previous record set in 1899.  But this isn't particularly weird, given global warming and the very strong El Nino.
« Last Edit: December 21, 2015, 03:29:32 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #903 on: December 20, 2015, 02:08:27 PM »
More on the Buffalo snow and the unusually warm weather in the eastern U.S..

Buffalo Gets First Snow, Smashes Record for Longest Time Without Any by Two Weeks
http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/buffalo-gets-first-snow-smashes-record-longest-time-without-any-n483156
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #904 on: December 20, 2015, 02:13:39 PM »
Common Thread at 2015 AGU Conference: The Big Melt

- Lots of red on the Arctic Report Card
- More than polar bears at risk
- The big shift from snow to rain in Western mountains
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/common-thread-at-2015-agu-conference--the-big-melt
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Clare

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #905 on: December 21, 2015, 06:42:07 AM »
My SIL sent this 'springlike' pic from Holland today:

Meanwhile things are warming up here in NZ:

"the hot air was coming across the Tasman Sea, following scorching weather in Australia where temperatures had climbed above 40°C in Melbourne and Adelaide.
"It does cool a bit as it's coming across the sea and gets some moisture, and then as it comes over New Zealand, it dries out on the ranges, especially in the South Island ... and on the eastern side, then we get these really warm northwesterly winds."and
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/32-7c-in-dunedin-record-temperatures-hit-scorching-south-island
We're expecting 30+'C here tomorrow, a bit much when we don't have aircon (not v common in NZ homes). A shady tree & cold beer seems like a good plan...


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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #906 on: December 21, 2015, 02:54:54 PM »
A forecast high in Chicago of 59F and rainy on my 60th birthday, December 23.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #907 on: December 21, 2015, 03:05:27 PM »
This is not cool.

P-maker

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #908 on: December 21, 2015, 03:43:35 PM »
Sleepy,

It seems as if you have run into the same problem as our Australian friends had last year. You propably have to ask SMHI to extend the scale to accomodate the future climate.

Happy Green Christmas

P


Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #909 on: December 21, 2015, 05:24:50 PM »
P-maker, thanks.

Yeah, I suggested that in February (on a Swedish blog) when we ran out of colors as well.

And oh, I'll try to mowe my lawn tomorrow, as I won't have time on Christmas Eve. We will also have a green new years eve. And the rest of January by the look of things now...

Merry Christmas!

silkman

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #910 on: December 21, 2015, 08:14:53 PM »
Here in NW England, I mowed mine yesterday. Not sure if it was the last cut of Autumn or the first cut of Spring!

Happy Holidays!

werther

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #911 on: December 21, 2015, 09:55:58 PM »
Thanks, Silkman,
Your garden pic is representative for the situation in the Netherlands, too.

I combined the Wetteronline anomaly maps like I did in November:



Difference is that this is almost three weeks out in December, as the November pic was based only on the first week.
I'd say the situation has settled even stronger now, especially over Eastern Russia, Mid-Siberia and Kazakhstan. Only around Bering Strait winter seems to finally get a grip.

Clare

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #912 on: December 22, 2015, 04:00:09 AM »
Doubly weird:

Yesterday Christchurch NZ broke its December temp record with 36'C, now it is currently (mid-afternoon here) at a max of 9.8'?
 :o

A southerly wind change did it.

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #913 on: December 22, 2015, 06:30:59 AM »
Thanks silkman, nice lawn!

Normally there are big differences between the rest of Europe and Scandinavia. I've lived more than a half century here and never had the thought of mowing my lawn in December, but now there are people here having fresh potatoes for Christmas, so why not.

WSI's seasonal forecast for Europe from yesterday confimes my own speculations above, unfortunately.
http://www.wsi.com/news/scheduled-forecasts/wsi-europe-warm-wet-windy-pattern-to-continue-across-much-of-europe
Quote
January•Nordic Region*- Warmer than normal
•UK* - Near normal
•Northern Mainland* - Warmer than normal
•Southern Mainland* - Warmer than normal

•February:•Nordic Region - Colder than normal
•UK - Near-normal to slightly colder than normal
•Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
•Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

•March:•Nordic Region - Slightly warmer than normal
•UK - Near normal
•Northern Mainland - Warmer than normal
•Southern Mainland - Warmer than normal

Another weird thing is that after a large El Nino, Scandinavia should normally see colder than normal and less precipitation than normal. Now there's only a hint of that in February, and we are not there yet.

silkman

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #914 on: December 22, 2015, 08:33:31 AM »
Sleepy

I've mowed that lawn since 1983 and until recently the last cut was end Oct and the first in late March.

Not much sign of change in the medium term forecast either if the ECMWF is to be believed. Here's New Year's Eve. More rain in the Lakes and no snow in the Alps. A snowless Davos in January might help the Economic Forum get the message.


Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #915 on: December 22, 2015, 09:11:11 AM »
I could mow my lawn too if I wanted, but I'm too lazy (and it's good for the critters to hibernate).  ;D

But it's relatively warm here in Austria too, and incredibly wet. That's to say, no rain for more than two months now (my cistern is almost empty), but very high relative humidity.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #916 on: December 22, 2015, 12:34:15 PM »
Just do it, Neven. My worms were not hibernating. Little lumps of dirt all over the lawn. :)

Here's a small part of my green green grass of home from today. I left a part at the top of the picture for comparison. It's certainly not pretty. Really wet and soggy because it rained tonight, but the sun did show up at the horizon during the morning.

It was a weird experience mowing the lawn this close to Christmas. A sad one really.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #917 on: December 22, 2015, 02:07:42 PM »
Sleepy

I've mowed that lawn since 1983 and until recently the last cut was end Oct and the first in late March.

Not much sign of change in the medium term forecast either if the ECMWF is to be believed. Here's New Year's Eve. More rain in the Lakes and no snow in the Alps. A snowless Davos in January might help the Economic Forum get the message.

Sorry, I didn't notice your comment. Maybe the last cut is early October here, I have never mowed my lawn in March so would say early April.

The Economic Forum might just appreciate the lack of snow. Hmm.
I which they would have listened in 1981. I know I didn't. :(
Hansen wasn't alarmistic at all. The rest of that old Science paper is here:
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~davidc/ATMS211/articles_optional/Hansen81_CO2_Impact.pdf

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #918 on: December 22, 2015, 02:36:13 PM »
Gary Szatkowski, NWS meteorologist for the Philadelphia region:

Quote
Looking for last minute gift ideas for your meteorologist? I think we need a new temperature scale. Broke this one.

https://twitter.com/garyszatkowski/status/679288335974735872
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Shared Humanity

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #919 on: December 22, 2015, 03:29:45 PM »
I could mow my lawn too if I wanted, but I'm too lazy (and it's good for the critters to hibernate).  ;D

But it's relatively warm here in Austria too, and incredibly wet. That's to say, no rain for more than two months now (my cistern is almost empty), but very high relative humidity.

We are periodically getting rain in the upper Midwest (I live in Chicago.) but the weather in between what is mainly light rains is bizarre. We have been stuck in a high humidity, very low wind weather pattern for most of the last 6 weeks. Gray overcast skies rule and fog is almost a daily occurrence. I often feel as if I am walking in a cloud. The dew points are usually only a couple of degrees over the current temperature.

It has caused me to speculate whether tracking dew points would reveal some rather subtle but spectacular changes in the atmosphere. Wouldn't this give an idea of the atmospheric moisture load. I would imagine that dew points are rising and this cannot be good as water vapor is yet another greenhouse gas. I actually think this is what is driving the abnormally war winters in the Arctic.
« Last Edit: December 22, 2015, 04:11:19 PM by Shared Humanity »

Sebastian

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #920 on: December 22, 2015, 03:40:43 PM »
Germany's wetteronline.de reports that for the monthly average for Germany, they expect December to be 1.3 degrees warmer than the warmest December on record (which was at 4.8° C). The expected average equates to a warm March or cool April.

Source (in German):
http://www.wetteronline.de/wetterticker?postId=post_5492410

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #921 on: December 22, 2015, 06:34:27 PM »
I could mow my lawn too if I wanted, but I'm too lazy (and it's good for the critters to hibernate).  ;D

But it's relatively warm here in Austria too, and incredibly wet. That's to say, no rain for more than two months now (my cistern is almost empty), but very high relative humidity.

We are periodically getting rain in the upper Midwest (I live in Chicago.) but the weather in between what is mainly light rains is bizarre. We have been stuck in a high humidity, very low wind weather pattern for most of the last 6 weeks. Gray overcast skies rule and fog is almost a daily occurrence. I often feel as if I am walking in a cloud. The dew points are usually only a couple of degrees over the current temperature.

Yes, exactly the same thing here. Very moist, but still cold at night and in the morning (around freezing point). The result is that I need to dry the corners of all the windows in the house, especially those on the west and north sides, every morning. Mind you, it's new house, passive house standard, so really well insulated, triple glazing, etc.

But if it's -2 °C outside, 19-20 °C inside, and the relative humidity in the house is 70-75% (I can't get it out because it's so moist outside), the corners of my windows will have a temperature of around 12 °C, which means water droplets will start to condense on the glass there (see German dew point spreadsheet below).

It didn't happen when we moved in last January, because there was snow and -10 °C outside, meaning rel. hum. in the house was 55%.

It's really annoying and we hope this won't be a recurring thing. Blood El Niño.  ;) ;D
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E. Smith

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #922 on: December 22, 2015, 08:51:10 PM »
It has indeed been a weird second half year. To my mind we are now seeing the first signs of a coming equable climate – meaning many more days with drizzle all over the place.

In the old days, you had to go to extreme maritime locations – such as the Faeroe Islands or western Ireland - in order to have lengthy episodes of drizzle.

Since summer solstice, we have here in Denmark seen an incredible number of drizzle episodes. Days on end with grey skies and relentless fine droplets soaking everything in a wet misty mess.

The WMO has a complete section on Drizzle in their synoptic code:

Quote
Drizzle
50 -- intermittent light drizzle
51 -- continuous light drizzle
52 -- intermittent moderate drizzle
53 -- continuous moderate drizzle
54 -- intermittent heavy drizzle
55 -- continuous heavy drizzle
56 -- light freezing drizzle
57 -- moderate to heavy freezing drizzle
58 -- light drizzle and rain
59 -- moderate to heavy drizzle and rain”

It would be interesting to see an up-to-date analysis of this parameter for a number of representative stations (if there are any manual observing stations left out there).

My guess is that as we move towards an ice-free Arctic Ocean, we will see widespread drizzle become the dominant way for our atmosphere to get rid of excess moisture over the mid-latitudes from GHG-forced evaporation over the subtropics.

High humidity has come to stay Neven, so better figure out a clever way to dry your windows before they rot away.

Neven

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #923 on: December 22, 2015, 09:57:12 PM »
High humidity has come to stay Neven, so better figure out a clever way to dry your windows before they rot away.

Working on it.  :)
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #924 on: December 23, 2015, 03:30:33 AM »
From the National Weather Service - Mount Holly (Philadelphia region) forecast discussion:
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #925 on: December 24, 2015, 12:11:07 AM »
Nature in state of confusion as Europe heat continues
Flowers start to bloom and hibernating animals keep fattening up as winter struggles to set in across northern Europe.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/12/nature-state-confusion-europe-heat-continues-151222104608676.html
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Buddy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #926 on: December 24, 2015, 01:34:10 AM »
The LOW expected tomorrow in New York City (at Central Park) is supposed to be HIGHER than the soon-to-be OLD RECORD HIGH (set in 1996).  Supposed to be in the low 70's for a high....

What global warming?
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #927 on: December 24, 2015, 05:26:16 AM »
If I only planned a little bit better, I could have placed wood anemones, cowslips and wild strawberries together with fresh/new potatoes on our dinnertable today.
What a smashing Christmas Eve, even our temperature anomalies are Christmascozy'ish!
I had to clean our entrace yesterday and this morning, that bloody dog dragged in tons of freshly cut grass.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #928 on: December 24, 2015, 08:56:48 AM »
Midsummer celebrations in Skövde.
Mid(winter)summer at the Boulognerlake, in the Boulognerforest in Skövde.
https://skovdenyheter.solidtango.com/video/midsommarfirande-i-jultid

Ending with a nice dip in the lake. Normally we dip bread into the stock from the Christmas ham today. Now we can do both! :)

Edit; adding some more pictures from the festivities.
« Last Edit: December 24, 2015, 09:14:48 AM by Sleepy »

werther

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #929 on: December 24, 2015, 11:28:25 AM »
Based on the spectacular data trove accessible to all, issued by NCEP-NCAR, I´ve been exercising a lot during the past years on the effects of climate change.
Though I haven´t done much this year, I took the opportunity for  a snap moment to do some comparisons this morning.
First, the easy part, temp anomaly in what I call ´winter power´, a comparison of 45% of this years´ winter against the last three full winters (1 Oct / 31 Mar):

On the way to the top warmest Arctic winters in the satellite data era, although the Baffin Bay could present some surprises.
Then I watch 500Mb geopotential height. It always nicely reveals the planetary waves. Some years ago, I was looking for clues on the possible demise of the Ferrel (mid-latitude) cell and wave-supported transmission of heat to the Arctic.
Well, there’s something to see here, very steadfast ridging and troughing, underpinning why it is that warm around Eastern N America, Europe and Russia.
So I thought it might be interesting to compare the 500Mb situation for Oct and Nov to that during the last strong El Nino year, ’97:

That’s nice, you can see how the anomaly difference heaps up against the polar front in this global picture.
Maybe even clearer through focusing on the Poles:

In the North. PS December data show the ‘Greenland trough’ even more pronounced between N American and European ridges.
A little to my surprise (as the Antarctic usually shows opposing effects), the pattern is clear in the South, too:

And so, now it’s time to hold breath and wait for the end of winter to see if this lasts.
Given the strength of the pattern, I doubt very much this will flip over into widespread wintry weather anywhere on the Northern Hemisphere. Maybe a couple of weeks with snow over here in the Netherlands. Nothing remotely near getting my skates out of the storage.
To end this with a reminder quoted a lot some seasons ago; “the heat will come to haunt us”, I wish you all a good Christmas with your families and friends! Let’s enjoy what good is still around…
« Last Edit: December 24, 2015, 05:33:55 PM by werther »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #930 on: December 24, 2015, 09:45:57 PM »
Eric Holthaus: "Wowwwww. Some areas were 40-50 degrees warmer than normal this morning. Never seen anomalies like this before."
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/680109481884172288


http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/12/24/east_coast_weather_is_freakishly_warm_this_christmas_eve.html
« Last Edit: December 24, 2015, 09:57:19 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #931 on: December 26, 2015, 05:49:19 PM »
National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center, about the central U.S. weather:

Quote
The weather map is sick! #severe #tornado #blizzard #flood. Working 'em all @NWSSPC [today].
https://twitter.com/gcarbin/status/680767617091678212


Radar/Warnings image is from Weather Underground's Storm app.

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #932 on: December 27, 2015, 12:08:55 AM »
Again! UK flooding, worse than two weeks ago.

Hundreds flee their homes as swaths of northern England are submerged
• Met Office issues two highest-level red weather warnings
• Rescue services called to around 350 incidents in Lancashire
• Severe flood warning in place for Leeds city centre
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/26/hundreds-flee-their-homes-as-englands-north-is-submerged


UK floods: Homes evacuated amid heavy rain
Quote
Heavy rain has caused more flooding in northern England, with homes evacuated in Lancashire and Yorkshire, and rivers overflowing in Manchester and Leeds.

Damage has included the destruction of a former pub in Greater Manchester, and a large hole has appeared in the M62.

Met Office warnings of further rainfall are in place for northern England, Scotland and Wales.
Hundreds of flood alerts and warnings have been issued - more than 30 of them severe, meaning danger to life.
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35181139
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pikaia

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #933 on: December 27, 2015, 10:26:27 AM »
Climatereanalyzer.org is forecasting temperatures above freezing at the North Pole on December 30 at 1200.


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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #934 on: December 27, 2015, 10:33:48 PM »
Well they dont mention this temp at the North Pole but summarise the rest here:

Lashed by nature's extremes
9:26 AM Monday Dec 28,
The holidays have got off to a difficult start with wild weather in Australia, the Americas and Britain

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11566732

El Nino gets a mention but maybe I missed any mention of CC.

Clare

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #935 on: December 28, 2015, 02:44:10 AM »
Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole
Quote
(The Arctic region as a whole is expected to experience a [frankly quite insane] temperature anomaly in the range of 4 degrees Celsius above average by January 3rd of 2016. Note the broad regions over Northern Canada, Siberia, and the Arctic Ocean that are predicted to experience temperatures in the range of 20 degrees Celsius above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 baseline readings. For some areas — particularly in Northern Canada — this will mean near or even above freezing temperatures for tundra and permafrost zones in the depths of Winter. A set of conditions that has serious implications for permafrost thaw and related carbon store feedbacks. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/27/warm-arctic-storm-to-hurl-hurricane-force-winds-at-uk-and-iceland-push-temps-to-72-degrees-f-above-normal-at-north-pole/
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #936 on: December 28, 2015, 04:43:16 AM »
UK floods:  Filming over a flood gate as water rises in York
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-35187038
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #937 on: December 28, 2015, 06:16:57 AM »
Warm Arctic Storm To Hurl Hurricane Force Winds at UK and Iceland, Push Temps to 72+ Degrees (F) Above Normal at North Pole
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(The Arctic region as a whole is expected to experience a [frankly quite insane] temperature anomaly in the range of 4 degrees Celsius above average by January 3rd of 2016. Note the broad regions over Northern Canada, Siberia, and the Arctic Ocean that are predicted to experience temperatures in the range of 20 degrees Celsius above the already hotter than normal 1979 to 2000 baseline readings. For some areas — particularly in Northern Canada — this will mean near or even above freezing temperatures for tundra and permafrost zones in the depths of Winter. A set of conditions that has serious implications for permafrost thaw and related carbon store feedbacks. Image source: Climate Reanalyzer.)
http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/27/warm-arctic-storm-to-hurl-hurricane-force-winds-at-uk-and-iceland-push-temps-to-72-degrees-f-above-normal-at-north-pole/

An important note to add to that article, we should start to see the effects of the current El Nino, on the weather patterns in the northern hemisphere, during January.

John Batteen

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #938 on: December 28, 2015, 10:04:24 PM »
We've been seeing it for months already, at least in North America.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #939 on: December 28, 2015, 11:35:27 PM »
Flooding in the central U.S. from the current system may surpass the Great Flood of 1993.

Historic and unseasonable flooding overwhelms Central U.S., Mississippi River
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In some locations, forecasts are calling for record or near-record crests over the next few days as rainwater across a large area of the South and Midwest drains into tributaries that feed into the Mississippi River.

Near Chester, Ill., the Mississippi River is forecast to crest at 49.8 feet, which would set a new record for the location, surpassing the old record of 49.7 feet which was set during the Great Flood of 1993. That flood was the second-worst flooding disaster since the Great Flood of 1927, and in some locations became the worst flooding disaster on record. Damage totals for the Great Flood of 1993 topped $15 billion.

However, this week’s flooding isn’t truly put into perspective until you consider that nearly all of the historic crests along the Mississippi have occurred during the spring melting season or the summer rainy months. Wintertime flooding to this extent is typically not possible simply because there is usually not enough moisture in cold, winter air to support such incredible rainfall totals.

In Chester, only a single wintertime flood has made it into the top 10 crests on record — 39.71 feet on Dec. 9, 1982. Not coincidentally, December of 1982 was also right in the middle of the strongest El Niño on record at the time.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/12/28/historic-and-unseasonable-river-flooding-overwhelms-central-u-s-mississippi-river/
People who say it cannot be done should not interrupt those who are doing it.

GeoffBeacon

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #940 on: December 29, 2015, 05:59:29 AM »
I'm now marooned in my 1st floor flat in York - since Saturday night. Not serious: I can wade out if I put shorts on but it will be a bit mucky. Other people aren't so lucky – but, of course, still better than Syrian refugees.

(Related tweet: Cameron criticised for #yorkfloods http://ow.ly/Wp2MJ --- but @IslamicReliefUK welcomed http://ow.ly/WpbTN)


GUARDIAN

The Guardian came and reported:

'Beacon [that's me] blamed not the Environment Agency, but climate change – or, more accurately, the humans who cause the planet to warm. “To stop this happening, really we need to stop eating beef, driving cars and building buildings out of steel and concrete,' he bellowed from his first floor perch."

No doubt I was a bit pompous and the reporter clearly wanted an ordinary 'vox pops' but does the "bellowed-from-his-first-floor-perch” put-down mean even the Guardian shies away from any hints that we must drastically change our way of life?

BBC

The BBC are still dragging their feet. Yesterday morning the BBC World Service Newsday 6.06 GMT had a piece “Weather Wreaks Havoc in US and Britain”. Oddly the presenter says its 8.15 GMT at 8.30 into the recording then continues:
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Now there's a number of extreme weather stories  from right aroound the world some scientists are talking of the effect of the climate phenomenon  known as El Nino where heated water unusually heated water in the pacific ocean ends up causing extreme weather patterns around the globe

In the southern United States more than 40 people are known to have died to the severe weather..

...parts of Latin America are seeing tremendous droughts and parts are seeing the worst flooding seen in 50 years.More than 150,000 people have been forced to evacuate their homes...In the UK

...highest river levels ever recorded in parts of Yorkshire...
No mention of climate change.

But the World Service World Have Your Say at 16.06 GMT put the weird weather down to climate change (not global warming - remember there are record colder days too!) in conjunction with natural variations and an enormous El Nino. (Start at 27.00 in the recording)

But I thought the unfortunate weatherman was having a hard time following the BBC party line, which is to minimise the issue for political reasons. He ended saying
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“So,er, yes, without (delving?) too far into a very very difficult political situation some might say that the writing is there on the wall if you believe it and you're prepared to read it.

He sounded worried to me. I hope he hasn't got a wife and family to support!

THE INDEPENDENT

@climatehawk1 has just tweeted this story in the Independent
I'm trapped in my home thanks to the flooding, why can't anyone admit that this is climate change?


Why indeed.
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Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #941 on: December 29, 2015, 08:12:20 AM »
We've been seeing it for months already, at least in North America.
NA is of course much more directly affected than northern Europe, but there's more to come.
http://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1064.msg67482.html#msg67482

I'll add a small animation from nullschool with the 250hpa layer.
Click to start.

Edit; I'll add this as well as it's a far more worthier read than my meager English.
https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation
And specifically regarding the normal atmospheric response to an El Nino.
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The atmospheric response to El Niño is strongest in the months January-March and it will be interesting to see how closely the atmospheric response projects onto forecasts derived from a strong El Niño.   But at least as if on cue, the models are predicting a strong southerly Jet Stream across the Southern United States.  Another key feature in the North Pacific basin is the very warm waters in the eastern North Pacific and the north central North Pacific. It will be interesting to see if yet once again the warm temperatures in the eastern North Pacific can couple with atmospheric ridging, which is now predicted for early to mid-January.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2015, 11:04:35 AM by Sleepy »

tombond

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #942 on: December 29, 2015, 08:35:30 AM »
The increased regular flooding in northern England is one example of the adaptation required to the changing climate caused by human activity.

Where human habitation occurs on floodplains it is necessary to control the flow of water by the construction of many small upstream reservoirs which capture the initial flood water then releases the water slowly through a small diameter pipe over say 4 or 5 days reducing the height of peak flooding.

The land on which the reservoirs are constructed can still be used for farming for most of the time and the water ponding for a few days causes little damage to the pasture.

I worked on a small project similar to this in Western Australia where I live.  The project took ten years to complete because while the sun was shining and there was no flooding it was always the first project to have its funding deferred.




Gray-Wolf

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #943 on: December 29, 2015, 03:03:47 PM »
Hi Tombond!

 Here in the Calder Valley we have two huge areas set aside for flood alleviation holding mind boggling amounts of water when full.

 They kept them closed on Christmas day even though we had started seeing flooding as they knew Saturdays rain would be substantial.

They opened the flood alleviation in Todmorden at 6.a.m. and our flood sirens sounded at 7.15a.m. Over that hour all the excess was taken up and still allowed the river, which can flood above 2.1m, to smash the 2012 record floods of 4.85m by another 0.84m by 3pm saturday.

I do not know what else could be done to help after 3 decades of flood alleviation schemes have been put into place?
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ko.yaa.nis.katsi (from the Hopi language), n. 1. crazy life. 2. life in turmoil. 3. life disintegrating. 4. life out of balance. 5. a state of life that calls for another way of living.
 
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tombond

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #944 on: December 29, 2015, 03:54:45 PM »
Gray-Wolf

Sorry to hear about the floods in your area and hope you personally were not severely effected.

That is the issue with a changing climate and increased flooding events, flood mitigation measures need to be constantly upgraded. 

Before the increased flooding events actually occur it is very difficult to obtain any government funding for additional speculative flood mitigation measures.

In my case we have the opposite problem, the flood measures are now installed but the climate is drying out, 25% rainfall reduction over the past 40 years and it now seems unlikely they will ever be used.

Wildfires are now the biggest issue with houses lost on a regular basis.

silkman

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #945 on: December 29, 2015, 06:09:45 PM »
Current temperature at Longyearbyen Airport as reported by Weather Underground is 6C:

"Longyear Airport
Tuesday, December 29, 2015
                          Actual       Average   Record
Temperature   
Mean Temperature   3 °C      
Max Temperature   6 °C         -9 °C         3 °C (2004)
Min Temperature   0 °C"

AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #946 on: December 29, 2015, 08:14:37 PM »
Per the linked article the severe storm that recent left North America is headed towards the Arctic and will likely deliver large amounts of heat north of Russia (see un-associated images):

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2015/12/the_storm_that_caused_tornadoes_will_heat_the_north_pole.2.html

Extract: "Taken together, the fires, floods, heat waves, tornadoes, and blizzards are surely strange, even unsettling—but the scariest weather of the year is still on the way.
As it departs North America this week, the storm will rapidly intensify over the northern reaches of the Gulf Stream and draw tremendous amounts of warm air northward from Spain and the Mediterranean Sea toward the Arctic. As the storm approaches Iceland, it will have strengthened to the equivalent of some of the strongest hurricanes ever recorded in terms of atmospheric pressure. Intensely high pressure over western Russia, perhaps boosted by melting sea ice, will aid in setting up the tropics-to-pole atmospheric superhighway.
Unlike other recent episodes of extreme weather around the planet, this storm is probably not related to El Niño, which has limited influence in Europe."

Edit: I have added two Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Maps to show that the low pressure is currently between 946 & 947 hPa.
« Last Edit: December 29, 2015, 08:21:58 PM by AbruptSLR »
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #947 on: December 29, 2015, 09:34:58 PM »
As a follow-on to my last post I present the following information for Dec 29 2015:
The first image shows the Earth Surface Wind & TPW (Total Precipitable Water) Map, and the second image shows the Earth Surface Wind and Surface Temperature Map (note that green indicates above freezing temperatures).  Combined these images indicate that the current storm is driving rain well north of Greenland.
« Last Edit: December 30, 2015, 12:36:24 AM by AbruptSLR »
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #948 on: December 29, 2015, 11:55:38 PM »
Now that I think about it I realize that in addition to today's storm (Hurricane Frank) off the coasts of Ireland & Iceland, the following Earth Surface Wind & Temperature Maps for Dec 30 and 31 2015 and Jan 1 and 2, 2016, respectively, show that two more strong storms will follow the Gulf Stream across the Atlantic, which will continue driving warm air into the Barents Sea for some days to come.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson

AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #949 on: December 30, 2015, 12:45:22 AM »
Robert Scribbler says that Frank will reach a low of 920 hPa before running into Iceland. While the attached Earth Surface Wind & MSLP Map shows the central pressure is currently 941 hPa.

http://robertscribbler.com/2015/12/29/warm-storm-brings-rain-over-arctic-sea-ice-in-winter/

Extract: "The impacts of this storm, which the UK Met Office is now calling Frank, could well be tremendous. Cumbria in Northern England may be set to experience yet another ‘worst flood on record’ — one of three occurring just this month. And the 920 mb range central low of this sprawling system is forecast to rip through the heart of Iceland itself. But the more visible risk of damages to England and Iceland may well pale in comparison to the quiet, yet drastic impacts taking place in the far north.

There, over the Arctic sea ice today, the rains began in winter time.

As the first front of warm air proceeded over the ice pack to the north of Svalbard, the rains fell through 35-40 degree (F) air temperatures. It splattered upon Arctic Ocean ice that rarely even sees rain during summer-time. Its soft pitter-patter a whisper that may well be the sound to mark the end of a geological age.

For we just don’t see rain over Arctic sea ice north of Greenland during Winter time. Or we used to not. But the warmth that liquid water falling through the black of what should be a bone-cold polar night represents something ominous.
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.”
― Leon C. Megginson