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Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1050 on: February 02, 2016, 03:36:48 AM »
Tons of stuff to watch in this one, if you're nerdy enough. ;)
A year of weather 2015.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1051 on: February 03, 2016, 04:33:15 PM »
U.S.:  The southern part of this storm spawned several damaging tornados; flood watches and warnings continue up and down the eastern U.S. as heavy rain moves through.

Winter Storm Kayla, One of Heaviest Snowstorms of Record in Parts of Nebraska, Winds Down in Great Lakes
Quote
In parts of Nebraska, Kayla was one of the heaviest snowstorms on record dating to the late 19th century.
https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/winter-storm-kayla-forecast-recap-feb-3-2016
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Jim Hunt

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1052 on: February 07, 2016, 12:07:17 AM »
Over here in Soggy South-West Engalnd a month's worth of rain has fallen in 24 hours:

http://econnexus.org/severe-flood-warning-for-portreath/

More on Twitter:

https://twitter.com/jim_hunt/status/695974621007519748

Here are a few flood warnings, and #MyBackYard:
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1053 on: February 07, 2016, 10:26:20 AM »
+8°C with sunshine and the birds are singing loud today. We're back to past winters meme, it's warmer than forecasted. Weather is fucked up everywhere on this planet, we are fortunate here though.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1054 on: February 07, 2016, 06:34:42 PM »
Storm Imogen is due here shortly:

http://www.V2G.co.uk/2016/02/storm-imogen-follows-floods-in-south-west-england/

However even before she arrives, power has been cut to the big telecoms tower at the top of our hill:

"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Jim Hunt

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1055 on: February 09, 2016, 12:29:53 AM »
At her peak Imogen turned out the lights at over 20,000 properties, but now she's heading off across the North Sea.

However no sooner has one hurricane force storm departed the North Atlantic than another one arrives:
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1056 on: February 09, 2016, 04:45:03 PM »
Jim, here is what that storm did yesterday....

Cruise Ship Returning to U.S. Port After Hitting 30-Foot Waves
TUE, FEB 09

Quote
A monster storm off the U.S. coast collided with the ship, forcing 6,000 passengers and crew to hunker down while the ship was battered by 100mph winds.
Ship's captain: this was "probably one of my worst days at sea."
Video: http://www.nbcnews.com/nightly-news/video/cruise-ship-returning-to-u-s-port-after-hitting-30-foot-waves-618925123870
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Juan C. García

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Which is the best answer to Sep-2012 ASI lost (compared to 1979-2000)?
50% [NSIDC Extent] or
73% [PIOMAS Volume]

Volume is harder to measure than extent, but 3-dimensional space is real, 2D's hide ~50% thickness gone.
-> IPCC/NSIDC trends [based on extent] underestimate the real speed of ASI lost.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1058 on: February 09, 2016, 09:46:50 PM »
Western Australia’s north hits 47C to become one of the hottest places on Earth
Quote
Perth was easily the hottest city on earth on Monday, with a high of almost 43C in the city’s eastern suburbs, and no other region on the planet had such widespread scorching temperatures as WA.

Mr Vivers said a slow moving high pressure system parked near the coast was in no rush to move on.
“It’s been a steady pattern and conditions around Perth haven’t really changed much.,” he said.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/western-australias-north-hits-47c-to-become-one-of-the-hottest-places-on-earth/news-story/be1fc3513524bcd0bf3987595ad0b7b5
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AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1059 on: February 09, 2016, 10:43:23 PM »
Western Australia’s north hits 47C to become one of the hottest places on Earth
Quote
Perth was easily the hottest city on earth on Monday, with a high of almost 43C in the city’s eastern suburbs, and no other region on the planet had such widespread scorching temperatures as WA.

Mr Vivers said a slow moving high pressure system parked near the coast was in no rush to move on.
“It’s been a steady pattern and conditions around Perth haven’t really changed much.,” he said.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/western-australias-north-hits-47c-to-become-one-of-the-hottest-places-on-earth/news-story/be1fc3513524bcd0bf3987595ad0b7b5

Now that climate change has been proven, Australia can let go of 350 climate scientists:

http://gizmodo.com/australia-may-fire-350-climate-scientists-because-clima-1757953183

Extract: "There are down sides to success. Australia’s national science industry has announced that, as far as they’re concerned, there is no longer any doubt that climate change exists—so they will no longer be funding research that seeks to prove it."
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oren

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1060 on: February 12, 2016, 09:31:46 AM »
Western Australia’s north hits 47C to become one of the hottest places on Earth
Quote
Perth was easily the hottest city on earth on Monday, with a high of almost 43C in the city’s eastern suburbs, and no other region on the planet had such widespread scorching temperatures as WA.

Mr Vivers said a slow moving high pressure system parked near the coast was in no rush to move on.
“It’s been a steady pattern and conditions around Perth haven’t really changed much.,” he said.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/western-australias-north-hits-47c-to-become-one-of-the-hottest-places-on-earth/news-story/be1fc3513524bcd0bf3987595ad0b7b5

Now that climate change has been proven, Australia can let go of 350 climate scientists:

http://gizmodo.com/australia-may-fire-350-climate-scientists-because-clima-1757953183

Extract: "There are down sides to success. Australia’s national science industry has announced that, as far as they’re concerned, there is no longer any doubt that climate change exists—so they will no longer be funding research that seeks to prove it."

This is unbelievable.

Jim Hunt

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1061 on: February 12, 2016, 12:29:42 PM »

The latest research from Exeter University:

http://www.exeter.ac.uk/news/research/title_494823_en.html

Quote
Britain’s rocky coastline is being reshaped and eroded by the increasingly common extreme weather.

Rock coasts erode quickly and are more vulnerable to stormy weather than previously thought, a new study shows. According to the first data collected on how they behaved before, during and after a storm large boulders can shift daily. It is hoped the research will allow erosion risk and sediment supplied from rocky coasts to be more accurately measured in future.

The data also shows that rock coasts have the potential to supply – and break down – much more coarse sediment into our coastal environment than previously thought.
"The most revolutionary thing one can do always is to proclaim loudly what is happening" - Rosa Luxemburg


Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1063 on: February 12, 2016, 04:25:39 PM »
Another low snow year in Anchorage is playing havoc with this year's Iditarod Trail Sled Dog Race.
Quote
Anchorage set a record for low snow totals last year at 25.1 inches. This year's total so far is 25.8 inches, while a normal snowfall total in Anchorage is 74.5 inches.
http://www.usnews.com/news/sports/articles/2016-02-10/low-snow-causes-havoc-again-with-iditarod
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1064 on: February 12, 2016, 07:25:16 PM »
"We may have just seen a truly ominous new weather record"
Quote
Hurricanes have long been a potent symbol — maybe the most potent — of a changing climate. Not only do these storms release destructive energy on a scale that’s staggering to contemplate, but how much they can do so depends on the heat contained in ocean water — their power source.

That’s what makes it so striking to find Jeff Masters, a hurricane expert and co-founder of the Weather Underground, declaring that late October’s Category 5 Hurricane Patricia wasn’t just the strongest hurricane ever seen in the Western hemisphere. No, Masters asserts that Patricia was the strongest tropical cyclone ever reliably recorded by humans, at least when measured by its wind speeds. (Tropical cyclones go by various names, including hurricanes and typhoons, in different parts of the world).

“I regard Patricia as unmatched for the strongest winds of any tropical cyclone in recorded history,” Masters wrote on Monday. He later continued: “Now that ocean temperatures are considerably warmer than they were a few decades ago, the maximum potential intensity a hurricane can reach is higher, and we should expect to see a few Patricias sprinkled among the inevitable phalanxes of major hurricanes that will assault our shores in the coming decades.”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2016/02/11/we-may-have-just-seen-a-truly-ominous-new-weather-record/

Dr. Masters' article is here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/hurricane-patricias-215-mph-winds-a-warning-shot-across-our-bow
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JimD

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1065 on: February 17, 2016, 03:09:27 PM »
Just watched the Phoenix news and they are expected to hit 91F today.  If it hits 91 that will be the highest temp ever recorded in Feb.

In the last week and out another week Phoenix will have seen about 6 daily high records as well as a number of daily max low temps.  All of AZ and the entire southwest is seeing many high temp records.

Anaheim (a suburb of LA) hit 97F yesterday.

In the last week the snowpack in the southern Sierra has dropped from slightly over normal to 86%.  But there is lots of winter to go still for snow. 
We do not err because truth is difficult to see. It is visible at a glance. We err because this is more comfortable. Alexander Solzhenitsyn

How is it conceivable that all our technological progress - our very civilization - is like the axe in the hand of the pathological criminal? Albert Einstein

A-Team

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1066 on: February 17, 2016, 03:49:32 PM »
The newspaper said Phoenix is at 0.1" or 2.54 mm of precip or the season. Zero chance of precip the next 10 days.

The Colorado River watershed is right at the 20 year average. However like the Sierra snowpack, it needs a storm every week or the average will tank over the next ten days.

I would say it is long overdue to put El NoNo in the trash can (after reviewing how, why, and by whom it got so over-hyped) and take a fresh look at the physics that actually determines Pacific Ocean storm tracks in the current climate. Clearly there is some sort of standing wave or resonant physics that gives rise to a stationary weather pattern able to shrug off or rebound from random weather disturbances. Looking at nullschool has been giving me a sense of deja vu for months on end.
« Last Edit: February 17, 2016, 04:11:21 PM by A-Team »

John Batteen

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1067 on: February 18, 2016, 05:13:12 AM »
Clearly the southwest is experiencing a climate shift independent of El Nino to a more arid state.  That doesn't negate the El Nino event.  Here in the upper midwest we've been experiencing a winter very similar to 97-98.  Record warm.  The jet stream configuration over the entire CONUS has been text book El Nino more often than not this winter.  The rest of the world is experiencing it too.

Sleepy

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1068 on: February 18, 2016, 11:37:23 AM »
This is an AGW enhanced El Nino as I see it. It has been pushed forwards due to that second peak but also Scandinavia has had some of the expected aftermath of it, colder and drier, and there's more to come when one look at the forecasts.
Most of our meteorologists here are not very good at communicating AGW. Speaking of which, this might fit here. Note Manabe at the end regarding the south west:

A-Team

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1069 on: February 18, 2016, 02:38:00 PM »
Quote
the entire CONUS has been text book El Nino more often than not this winter.
Not the case. For starters, the Southwest is a quarter of the continental US. We have not had a single day of 'El Nino weather' since October unless you count the wildly misattributed mid-January event.

US weather largely comes off the jet stream and Pacific Ocean, not Canada per se. If the storms have indeed been deflected farther north this year, it follows the weather in the Northwest is also highly abnormal (not El Nino pattern). So just for starters everything west of Denver is abnormal.

In my view, no such thing as a distinctive El Nino weather pattern exists, meaning loosely if you saw exactly the same pattern during La Nina or La Nada you would not say 'hey what is going on, this is an El Nino weather pattern'.

A distinctive El Nino weather pattern in the NH would imply someone could demonstrate the ability invert the weather. That is, I give you double-blinded northern hemisphere weather data from 1980-2015, you get back to me with the status of the equatorial South Pacific for each of those masked years. If not, there's no such thing as an objective distinctive El Nino weather pattern.

In my view, only textbook applicable here is from Psychology 101, the chapter entitled 'The Power of Suggestion'. When people are told every day for months on end on weather tv that equatorial south pacific is in a gonzo El Nino condition, anything and everything that later happens in the US will be attributed to El Nino.

If it had instead been reported that 2015/16 was a gonzo La Nina/Nada year and to expect a horrific continuation of the drought (which is what is happening but for other reasons), the identical anything and everything in the US would now be attributed to the ongoing gonzo La Nina/Nada. (I am making this prediction at the 99.9% confidence level.)

These rain statistics, if you care to call just two years 'statistics' ie 1982/83 and 1997/98, assume a flat climatology (have no adjustment to the rapid change in surface temperature and water vapor content). Historic weather statistics are very rapidly losing their value under climate change. We couldn't predict diddley before and now it's even harder.

El Nino reminds me of a roulette wheel. The croupier said 'les jeux sont faits' back in mid-December, so NOAA bet on the black (more rain than average, happens half the time). Something was really off with the weather, so I bet on the red back on a Dec 10th post. As did the Old Farmers Almanac back in mid-Oct.

NCAR's Trenberth had the sense to wait until the wheel stopped spinning on 01 Mar 2016 when, ignoring repeated cries of 'rien ne va plus' from the croupier, he changed his bet from black to red!!!

If you recall the investigation of the Challenger disaster (the closest thing to this year's El Nino predictions), nothing  would have come of it had not NASA appointed a reputable physicist (Richard Feynman) to the committee, thinking 'what does a quantum field theorist guy know about gaskets'.

That's what I am calling for here with El Nino 2015/16: an independent investigating committee of real physicists who come in knowing absolutely nothing about climatology/meteorology. These folks are quick studies; we'd soon get a good idea on what went wrong, why it went wrong, and whether we can fix it.

I tend to think not. The ocean warming, yes; the tropical breezes, never; tele atmospheric physics, progress is possible; other competing effects that trump El Nino, too soon to say; moving beyond wait-and-see, not likely.

I do think this year presents a great opportunity to focus on the dominant processes affecting Pacific storm tracks but that is getting lost defending Received Wisdom around El Nino. The aforementioned psychology textbook has a good chapter called 'Responses to Cognative Dissonance' but it is very seldom read.
« Last Edit: February 18, 2016, 03:00:56 PM by A-Team »

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1070 on: February 18, 2016, 05:12:22 PM »
Temps 10° to 35° above average; extreme fire danger in central U.S.

Record Warmth, Spring Fever, Extreme Fire Danger in the Plains; Midwest, Northeast Warm-Up Through the Weekend
https://weather.com/forecast/national/news/mid-february-warmth-spreads-east
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1071 on: February 18, 2016, 05:16:14 PM »
Meanwhile, back in the snowy part of the U.S., officials try to explain why a heavy snowstorm, forecast well in advance, caught them by surprise.

Quote
HARRISBURG - As blizzard conditions began to strand motorists for what would become 24 hours of icy discomfort last month, Pennsylvania Turnpike managers were hampered because they relied on a single afternoon weather forecast that understated the severity of the storm, they said Tuesday.
http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/20160217_Turnpike_chief__Forecast_suggested__manageable__snow_storm.html
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LRC1962

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1072 on: February 18, 2016, 07:29:31 PM »
A-Team: I agree with you. Relatively the world has been in a fairly stable state in the past 10,000 years or so. The problem now is that there are forces in play that have to push us out of those stable years and therefore trying to predict what is going on based on what has happened during those years to my mind is very problematic. Also problematic to me is comparing things to past eras when similar force numbers where in play. They ignore 2 very critical factors.
1) Time period. In almost every case in the past it happened over a very long time period. In our case we are doing it over a very short time. Watch what happens to a chemical experiment when you change the time period for the reaction to happen. It never comes out the same way.
2) Man. He not only is controlling the atmosphere by adding CO2, but he also is trying to control the entire land surface. Urban sprawl, industrial agriculture (IMO a major player that is ignored far too often), controlling water through dams, diversions, irrigation, Resource development, ergo almost every inch of the land surface and they all have major impacts. Put together there is no comparing to past eras.
How do we then forecast what will happen? Maybe call in the sci-fi writers. It is surprising some of the things they have called right with far less data. Details are almost always wrong, but the general trend, I have seen from the best of them far more accurate predictions then the experts. Or on the other hand, try an historian, they do not get hung up on how things are supposed to work they just can tell you that when man does this, that seems to happen and this seems to be the out come. Therefore if you do want to avoid what happened in the past it may be prudent not to do the following ..... as the results always came out bad  when that was tried. But, then what do sci-fi writers and historians know about what is happening in the world today?
"All truth passes through three stages: First, it is ridiculed; Second,  it is violently opposed; and Third, it is accepted as self-evident."
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1073 on: February 19, 2016, 01:58:01 AM »
Quote
NWS Tulsa:  4:45pm: Satellite imagery detecting likely fire locations.
https://twitter.com/nwstulsa/status/700452912284065792

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BornFromTheVoid

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1074 on: February 19, 2016, 03:42:29 PM »
Kerry Emanuel and Dan Cziczo currently doing an AMA (questions and answers) on reddit.com/r/askscience.

https://www.reddit.com/r/askscience/comments/46kez8/askscience_ama_series_were_drs_kerry_emanuel_and/
I recently joined the twitter thing, where I post more analysis, pics and animations: @Icy_Samuel

AbruptSLR

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1075 on: February 19, 2016, 08:19:41 PM »
The following is a re-post from the wildfire thread:


AbruptSLR  February 18, 2016, 09:28:55 AM

Wildfires are forecast for tomorrow in the Central USA, due to high temperatures and winds in February.  I note that paleo-data indicates that during recent past interglacial periods such wildfires were common throughout the Central USA:

http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/18/us/warm-weather-february/index.html


Not only did the forecasts of wildfire come true, but our new climate change conditions generated fire tornadoes across thousands of acres in Missouri:

http://abcnews.go.com/US/high-winds-spark-fire-tornadoes-missouri/story?id=37056702

Extract: "High winds caused fires to spread across thousands of acres in Missouri on Thursday, generating whirling fire tornadoes and wreaking havoc on thousands of acres of land.
“In my 39-year career, I have never seen anything like that before,” Dean Cull, Deputy Chief of the Southern Platte Fire Protection District told ABC News today."
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pikaia

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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1077 on: February 19, 2016, 09:33:22 PM »
Quote
Bob Henson:  Whoa!  In Svalbard, Norway (78°N), the *low* on Sun. night is predicted to be 30F. Average *high* in late Feb: 9F.

https://twitter.com/bhensonweather/status/700753006841573380

Quote
Kees van der Leun: ... Nov and Dec in Svalbard were 7°C above normal, Jan 11°C, and past 30 days 11°C as well: http://www.yr.no/place/Norway/Svalbard/Svalbard_lufthavn/statistics.html

https://twitter.com/sustainable2050/status/700754000476577792
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1078 on: February 19, 2016, 09:45:09 PM »
Fierce Tropical Cyclone Winston threatens to devastate Fiji
Quote
Cyclone Winston is now making its approach to Fiji as a Category 4 or 5 storm that could cause widespread devastation on an island that has never experienced a storm of this intensity. In addition, it is going to strike from a direction (roughly east to west) that is also rare, if not unheard of, in Fiji.
...
In fact, some meteorologists are comparing the satellite intensity estimates to Super Typhoon Haiyan and Hurricane Patricia, both of which were among the most intense storms ever recorded on Earth.

Fiji meteorologist Neville Koop told Australia's ABC News that many of the 75,000 residents of the low-lying capital of Suva may not fully realize the danger looming off the coast.

"Most of the people in Suva are under the misapprehension that Suva doesn't get cyclones - that it's only the north and the west of the country that seems to get them and the ones that come past Suva are weak and insipid," he said.

"This is the exception to that — it's probably one of the strongest cyclones to affect the capital in the last decade or two."
http://mashable.com/2016/02/19/cyclone-winston-threatens-to-devastate-fiji/
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Csnavywx

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1079 on: February 19, 2016, 10:30:34 PM »
Quote
the entire CONUS has been text book El Nino more often than not this winter.
Not the case. For starters, the Southwest is a quarter of the continental US. We have not had a single day of 'El Nino weather' since October unless you count the wildly misattributed mid-January event.

US weather largely comes off the jet stream and Pacific Ocean, not Canada per se. If the storms have indeed been deflected farther north this year, it follows the weather in the Northwest is also highly abnormal (not El Nino pattern). So just for starters everything west of Denver is abnormal.

In my view, no such thing as a distinctive El Nino weather pattern exists, meaning loosely if you saw exactly the same pattern during La Nina or La Nada you would not say 'hey what is going on, this is an El Nino weather pattern'.

A distinctive El Nino weather pattern in the NH would imply someone could demonstrate the ability invert the weather. That is, I give you double-blinded northern hemisphere weather data from 1980-2015, you get back to me with the status of the equatorial South Pacific for each of those masked years. If not, there's no such thing as an objective distinctive El Nino weather pattern.

In my view, only textbook applicable here is from Psychology 101, the chapter entitled 'The Power of Suggestion'. When people are told every day for months on end on weather tv that equatorial south pacific is in a gonzo El Nino condition, anything and everything that later happens in the US will be attributed to El Nino.

If it had instead been reported that 2015/16 was a gonzo La Nina/Nada year and to expect a horrific continuation of the drought (which is what is happening but for other reasons), the identical anything and everything in the US would now be attributed to the ongoing gonzo La Nina/Nada. (I am making this prediction at the 99.9% confidence level.)

These rain statistics, if you care to call just two years 'statistics' ie 1982/83 and 1997/98, assume a flat climatology (have no adjustment to the rapid change in surface temperature and water vapor content). Historic weather statistics are very rapidly losing their value under climate change. We couldn't predict diddley before and now it's even harder.

El Nino reminds me of a roulette wheel. The croupier said 'les jeux sont faits' back in mid-December, so NOAA bet on the black (more rain than average, happens half the time). Something was really off with the weather, so I bet on the red back on a Dec 10th post. As did the Old Farmers Almanac back in mid-Oct.

NCAR's Trenberth had the sense to wait until the wheel stopped spinning on 01 Mar 2016 when, ignoring repeated cries of 'rien ne va plus' from the croupier, he changed his bet from black to red!!!

If you recall the investigation of the Challenger disaster (the closest thing to this year's El Nino predictions), nothing  would have come of it had not NASA appointed a reputable physicist (Richard Feynman) to the committee, thinking 'what does a quantum field theorist guy know about gaskets'.

That's what I am calling for here with El Nino 2015/16: an independent investigating committee of real physicists who come in knowing absolutely nothing about climatology/meteorology. These folks are quick studies; we'd soon get a good idea on what went wrong, why it went wrong, and whether we can fix it.

I tend to think not. The ocean warming, yes; the tropical breezes, never; tele atmospheric physics, progress is possible; other competing effects that trump El Nino, too soon to say; moving beyond wait-and-see, not likely.

I do think this year presents a great opportunity to focus on the dominant processes affecting Pacific storm tracks but that is getting lost defending Received Wisdom around El Nino. The aforementioned psychology textbook has a good chapter called 'Responses to Cognative Dissonance' but it is very seldom read.

Deal. It's not that hard when using monthly data and even less difficult using seasonal (especially DJF) composites. Shows up pretty well with MEI >1 over the north Pacific as persistent mid-to-upper levei troughing over a period of months near or over the Gulf of Alaska (see current and forecast 500mb anomaly composites for example). It's very easy however, to overstate or misuse these tools, and in the case of analogs, butcher it completely.

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1080 on: February 20, 2016, 02:24:21 PM »
Buildings Evacuated in Downtown Chicago As High Winds Whip Debris
Power losses; debris flying.  Videos: door swinging open and closed on 61st floor inside of of swaying building; four people struggle to help a woman get across a sidewalk and into a taxi.
http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Chicago-Building-Evacuated-for-High-Winds-369464642.html
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1081 on: February 20, 2016, 04:03:48 PM »
Eric Holthaus:
Quote
Days after becoming 1st nation to ratify Paris climate agrmnt, Fiji hit by monster cyclone…https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/701050062277726208

Quote
Cyclone Winston made landfall on Fiji’s main island, Viti Levu, late Saturday local time. The Fiji Meteorological Service estimated wind gusts near Winston’s center at around 200 mph—strong enough for Winston to be considered the strongest tropical cyclone ever measured in the Southern Hemisphere. Just prior to landfall, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center in Hawaii estimated Winston’s sustained winds at around 185 mph, based on satellite.
...
Meteorologist Bob Henson said that prior to landfall, Winston attained a “nearly ideal environment for intensification.” Exceptionally warm ocean temperatures egged on by a record-strength El Niño were a big reason why Winston was so strong. At one point, satellite-based intensity estimates of Winston were a perfect 8.0 on an 8.0 scale. Winston also took a very atypical track to arrive in Fiji, making landfall from the East—the opposite of the usual direction—which may have left residents unprepared, and amounts to a worst case scenario for the island chain.
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/02/20/cyclone_winston_batters_fiji.html
« Last Edit: February 20, 2016, 05:49:18 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1082 on: February 20, 2016, 05:48:32 PM »
Prelim M5.8 earthquake Fiji region Feb-20 15:51 UTC, updates:  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10004rdp
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1083 on: February 20, 2016, 05:56:34 PM »
Buildings Evacuated in Downtown Chicago As High Winds Whip Debris
Power losses; debris flying.  Videos: door swinging open and closed on 61st floor inside of of swaying building; four people struggle to help a woman get across a sidewalk and into a taxi.
http://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/Chicago-Building-Evacuated-for-High-Winds-369464642.html

I live in Chicago. I almost got blown over walking to work yesterday morning. There are still traffic signals blinking red all over the city.

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1084 on: February 20, 2016, 05:59:26 PM »
Prelim M5.8 earthquake Fiji region Feb-20 15:51 UTC, updates:  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10004rdp

Cyclones so powerful they cause earthquakes!

 ;)

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1085 on: February 21, 2016, 05:21:17 PM »
Prelim M5.8 earthquake Fiji region Feb-20 15:51 UTC, updates:  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10004rdp

Cyclones so powerful they cause earthquakes!

 ;)
I've noticed others.  For example, near SuperTyphoon Hagupit (Ruby) in December 2014.
Quote
5.7 - SULAWESI, INDONESIA: Date: Wed, 03 Dec 2014 00:27:05 UTCLat/Lon: -2.8995/122.418Depth: 21.03 on.doi.gov/12pwjhJ
https://twitter.com/eqtw/status/539947141305602048
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1086 on: February 21, 2016, 05:34:47 PM »
Ensemble model problems.  ;)

You know it's bad when:  Meteorologists poll Twitter users for the forecast. 

Quote
Michael Ventrice:  HUGE variance between the GEFS and ECMWF EPS at 180 hours out. POLL: RT if you believe warm ECMWF; Fav for cold GEFS

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/701412973672267776
(Currently, GEFS is ahead.  :D )
« Last Edit: February 21, 2016, 05:39:49 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1087 on: February 21, 2016, 06:04:13 PM »
Prelim M5.8 earthquake Fiji region Feb-20 15:51 UTC, updates:  http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us10004rdp

Cyclones so powerful they cause earthquakes!

 ;)
I've noticed others.  For example, near SuperTyphoon Hagupit (Ruby) in December 2014.
Quote
5.7 - SULAWESI, INDONESIA: Date: Wed, 03 Dec 2014 00:27:05 UTCLat/Lon: -2.8995/122.418Depth: 21.03 on.doi.gov/12pwjhJ
https://twitter.com/eqtw/status/539947141305602048

Apparently scientists have found associations between storms and earthquakes:

Typhoons Can Trigger Earthquakes, Study Suggests
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2009/06/090610-typhoons-cause-earthquakes.html

Heavy Rainfall Can Cause Huge Earthquakes
Rain-induced erosion loosens faults, scientist says.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2011/11/111215-rainfall-hurricanes-typhoons-earthquakes-science-earth/

Hurricanes and typhoons can trigger earthquakes, says study
http://earthsky.org/earth/hurricanes-and-typhoons-can-trigger-earthquakes-says-study
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1088 on: February 21, 2016, 06:40:15 PM »
And this longer article which suggests that stormwater seeping into faults may make earthquakes more likely. 
(Compare to Oklahoma's earthquakes caused by fracking water disposal wells...?)

Blame it on the rain: The proposed links between severe storms and earthquakes
http://www.earthmagazine.org/article/blame-it-rain-proposed-links-between-severe-storms-and-earthquakes
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1089 on: February 21, 2016, 07:41:18 PM »
The Fiji fault is under the ocean! 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1090 on: February 21, 2016, 09:29:28 PM »
The Fiji fault is under the ocean!

 ;D  Good point!

Maybe the energy of a shifting ocean, caused by storm surge?  (Which is what I think we were both angling at, in some fashion, from the beginning.  ;) )
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1091 on: February 21, 2016, 09:37:01 PM »
Astronaut Tim Peake on the International Space Station tweeted this photo of a large cloud of sand and dust hanging over Spain and Portugal.  Strong southerly wind flow off of Africa (700 hPa).
(And gale force winds near the U.K.!)
https://twitter.com/astro_timpeake/status/701417496050593792
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1092 on: February 23, 2016, 03:03:05 AM »
January weather statistics for the U.S.:   Honolulu had its driest January on record.
Quote
January was drier than average for much of Hawaii, with many locations receiving less than 25 percent of normal monthly precipitation. Honolulu had its driest January on record, receiving just 0.01 inches of rainfall. The January normal rainfall for Honolulu is 2.31 inches and the previous record dry January of 1924 received 0.12 inches. Abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions expanded to the entire state.
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/201601
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1093 on: February 23, 2016, 07:44:01 PM »
Unless we cut-back quickly on GHG emissions, the linked reference indicates that by 2100 the current 1 in 20-year storm could be an annual occurrence for most of the world:

Claudia Tebaldi and Michael F. Wehner (2016), "Benefits of mitigation for future heat extremes under RCP4.5 compared to RCP8.5", Climatic Change, doi:10.1007/s10584-016-1605-5


http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs10584-016-1605-5

Abstract: "Using ensembles from the Community Earth System Model (CESM) under a high and a lower emission scenarios, we investigate changes in statistics of extreme daily temperature. The ensembles provide large samples for a robust application of extreme value theory. We estimate return values and return periods for annual maxima of the daily high and low temperatures as well as the 3-day averages of the same variables in current and future climate. Results indicate statistically significant increases (compared to the reference period of 1996–2005) in extreme temperatures over all land areas as early as 2025 under both scenarios, with statistically significant differences between them becoming pervasive over the globe by 2050. The substantially smaller changes, for all indices, produced under the lower emission case translate into sizeable benefits from emission mitigation: By 2075, in terms of reduced changes in 1-day heat extremes, about 95 % of land regions would see benefits of 1 °C or more under the lower emissions scenario, and 50 % or more of the land areas would benefit by at least 2 °C. 6 % of the land area would benefit by 3 °C or more in projected extreme minimum temperatures and 13 % would benefit by this amount for extreme maximum temperature. Benefits for 3-day metrics are similar. The future frequency of current extremes is also greatly reduced by mitigation: by the end of the century, under RCP8.5 more than half the land area experiences the current 20-year events every year while only between about 10 and 25 % of the area is affected by such severe changes under RCP4.5."
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1094 on: February 24, 2016, 03:09:10 AM »
The linked article discusses track of thunderstorms and tornadoes that left dead and destruction across the US south and southeast:

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/strong-tornadoes-feared-storm-aims-gulf-coast-n523986

Extract: "A third person was killed in Lamar County, Mississippi, Sheriff Danny Rigel told NBC News. The National Weather Service said radar indicated a possible tornado at the scene, where a mobile home was destroyed.

Six tornadoes were confirmed across Louisiana by 9 p.m. ET, according to the National Weather Service, along with three in Alabama and one in Mississippi. Many others were reported but hadn't been confirmed Tuesday night.

Almost 19,000 customers remained without power across Louisiana at 9 p.m. ET, Louisiana's seven main electric utilities reported. The state Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness activated its crisis action team to coordinate responses."

Edit: The following link leads to a follow-up story including the damage done by the storm in Florida:

http://www.theatlantic.com/national/archive/2016/02/a-deadly-tornado-in-the-south/470739/

See also for the Southeast:
http://www.cnn.com/2016/02/24/us/severe-weather-threat-for-southeast/

Edit2: This storm has now swept into the Northeast:

http://www.nbcnews.com/news/weather/cleanup-underway-after-storm-system-kills-8-south-blows-northeast-n525356

Extract: "Americans in more than a dozen states faced the heartbreaking task of cleaning up Thursday afternoon after a dangerous storm system swept the Gulf Coast to the Northeast, spawning killer tornadoes.

At least eight people were killed as some 60 tornadoes were reported on Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm system threatened to topple more trees as a brutal line of winds plowed through Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York.

Virginia saw the majority of deaths — four — and residents were struggling to keep stock of what they lost as they sifted through the debris.

In Louisiana, Sugar Hill RV Park owner Mark Anderson was thankful for his life after a tornado reportedly flipped campers and crushed cars at his property in Convent, a small community west of New Orleans along the Mississippi River."
« Last Edit: February 25, 2016, 07:31:40 PM by AbruptSLR »
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1095 on: March 06, 2016, 04:34:46 AM »
"System may forecast tornadoes weeks away; Test it next week" 
This is an article courtesy of the Associated Press that was picked up off the wire and printed in the local paper. 
"Victor Gensini, a meteorology professor at the College of DrPage outside Chicago, found a link between tornado activity in the United Sates and complicated atmospheric wave patterns that shift every 40 to 60 days.  Gensini's study is based on something he calls the Global Wind Oscillation, a collection of climate and weather wobbles, like the familiar El Nino, Madden Julian Oscillation and others.  It's more of a catch-all index that operates as "an atmospheric orchestra," Gensini said.
He focuses on the jet stream and the changes that occur at 33,000 feet.  At the moment it is changing from west to east to more roller coaster-like plunges north and south.  "The largest tornado outbreaks of the last 50 years have all occurred during a transitional phase similar to the one we are about to experience," Gensini said.  This pattern allowed Gensini to predict at least 22 tornados in the Southeastern United States between March 5 - 19 back on February 22.
 

Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1096 on: March 06, 2016, 05:17:54 PM »
More on the Gensini tornado predictions:

Article:
College of DuPage prof may have found way to forecast tornadoes 2-3 weeks in advance
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/breaking/ct-college-of-dupage-prof-may-have-found-way-to-forecast-tornadoes-2-3-weeks-in-advance-20160304-story.html

Brief article and radio clip:
DuPage Researcher Trying To Predict Tornadoes Weeks In Advance
http://chicago.cbslocal.com/2016/03/04/dupage-researcher-trying-to-predict-tornadoes-weeks-in-advance/

His paper in the American Meteorological Society journal is here: 
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/MWR-D-15-0289.1

Gensini's Facebook page:
https://www.facebook.com/vgensini
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Sigmetnow

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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1097 on: March 08, 2016, 01:19:44 PM »
Eric Blake:  Huge upgrades coming for the ECMWF model system [March 8]- large resolution & skill increases expected #weather
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/706914282190016516

Edit: Details at  https://software.ecmwf.int/wiki/plugins/servlet/mobile#content/view/51725856
« Last Edit: March 08, 2016, 03:08:05 PM by Sigmetnow »
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1098 on: March 08, 2016, 11:21:04 PM »
Huge, slow-moving kink in the jet stream expected to lead to severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, and over 12 inches of rain in places over the next three days in the south-central U.S.
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Re: Weird Weather and anecdotal stories about climate change
« Reply #1099 on: March 08, 2016, 11:54:12 PM »
That kink is bringing very pleasant warm weather to Chicago. Currently 70F.