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seaicesailor

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1550 on: July 11, 2017, 02:51:10 PM »
2017 A reports 21 cm of surface melt, almost entirely during last week, and about 19 cm of bottom melt. Almost 40 cm gone in 10 days!, the ice is now 79 cm, thinner than at deployment. At this rate the ice surrounding the buoy wont see August.

Unfortunately, currently away, cannot do the profile animations, for a nice while. :-(

Edit, interesting to observe the rate of surface melting during this week,  this buoy has been literally "under the weather" in Chukchi sea, not the 24/7 sunny skies one could associate with accelerated melt, but humid warm winds with clouds and rain.
« Last Edit: July 11, 2017, 03:27:09 PM by seaicesailor »

Andreas T

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1551 on: July 11, 2017, 05:44:06 PM »
Could we be looking at the ice freeboard now, meaning it is not draining because it is inundated?
The water in the middle distance has dropped lower so the one on the near right can't be at sea level. My hunch is that the ice is still fairly thick, say 1.5m. That would have an average freeboard of 17cm with the higher parts as much above that as they cover a smaller part of the area. Hard to estimate the contours visible but I think even the lower water levels visible are a little above sea level.
Cold weather is forecast for the rest of the week I believe, so probably very little surface melt.

The sunshine in the 06 UTC image didn't last long, I found the attached Terra image on the rapidfire site https://lance.modaps.eosdis.nasa.gov/realtime/?calendar not sure if this shows something eosdis doesn't. I think it shows whitening as we would expect from the draining surface water since the start of the month. It also shows the gap along Stefanson island getting more substantial (not wider but longer parts) That is what I am watching (and the opposite coast of Parry channel) to get an indication when to expect break up in that area. Further south this is happening now but I would guess another week near Obuoy14. (just to join the "lets see if I can get this wrong" game)

Jim Hunt

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1552 on: July 11, 2017, 07:06:26 PM »
Unfortunately, currently away, cannot do the profile animations, for a nice while.

In which case see below for the non animated version.

In addition here's the 2017B summary from considerably further north:

Pos: 85.02 N, 4.91 W
Air Temp: 0.8 C
Ice thickness : 155 cm
Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 10 cm
Ice bottom melt : 27 cm
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vigilius

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1553 on: July 12, 2017, 03:00:24 AM »
Another daily gif of July 9,10, 11. The curiously persistent little pond in the near right continues to amuse. I like SIS have often thought I was looking at perforations not ponds but I think Jim has the right of it, this stuff is still kinda thick. (click to animate)

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1554 on: July 12, 2017, 03:59:16 AM »
The near right little pond on the July 11 image shows what I'm pretty sure is very thin new ice, and the pond level fell a little, leaving air pockets that make this new ice look white.
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slow wing

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1555 on: July 12, 2017, 05:45:47 AM »
Would a simple explanation be that the pond on the right doesn't drain because it doesn't happen to have a drainage channel open to lower levels?

PS I enjoy reading this thread and seeing the pictures and data - thanks to those contributing.

Rob Dekker

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1556 on: July 12, 2017, 09:16:05 AM »
The latest image from Obuoy 14 suggests that there is not much melting going on.
In fact, it looks like the surface is freezing over :


Andreas T

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1557 on: July 12, 2017, 09:32:23 AM »
this image from yesterday suggests there has been a little snowfall

magnamentis

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1558 on: July 13, 2017, 08:33:37 PM »
The latest image from Obuoy 14 suggests that there is not much melting going on.
In fact, it looks like the surface is freezing over :




it depends when the images are made (time of the day) except on days with full insolation (blue skies) this happens every day at "NIGHT" time (clockwise) later in the same day when temps rise by a few degrees things are mostly the same like yesterday while there at times is a bit of snow falling or freezing drizzle.
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Andreas T

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1559 on: July 14, 2017, 08:44:29 AM »
Maybe this should be in the NWP thread but since I think we will see signs of this at Obuoy14 soon.
In the 14 13. 7. Terra image a glimpse through the clouds shows a crack (red arrow) opening roughly 30km west of the Buoy position. While the earlier openings (blue arrow)were spreading slowly because of pinning by islands the ice which remains undisturbed at the moment will be less stable especially if there are openings spreading along the islands (green arrow)
This will put the break up in this vicinity on par with last year, earlier than I expected.
EDIT added a link to Wipneus' AMSR2 animation on another thread
Animated Canadian Archipelago. Some ice in the main channel (Barrow Strait) has "mobilized".
« Last Edit: July 14, 2017, 01:56:04 PM by Andreas T »

Bruce Steele

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1560 on: July 16, 2017, 04:14:01 PM »
ITP 97 is showing some very strange conditions. Surface waters have been in the -.4 C to -1.2 C range from the surface to 100 meters for over a week. There is also a concurrent shoaling of saline water from depth. I keep expecting to see some reversion to something more normal but everyday I look at the update and things still look weird .  I know one buoy's data might be just a buoy that is putting out bad numbers , but maybe it is the one source on what the water column is doing . What would a breakdown of the thermocline and the halocline look like ?

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1561 on: July 16, 2017, 04:21:30 PM »
another glimpse of Obuoy14's vicinity in todays AQUA 10:15 image
https://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/realtime.cgi

The opening along Stefanson island is quite large now and east of the large crack ice is moving away.
The GPS data of the buoy shows an icrease of velocity but no other signs of movement

Edit: I have just seen a later MODIS image which shows the channel to the south (MClintock? ) breaking up.  I expect Obuoy14 to be back on the move tomorrow. I admit saying not in the next 4 weeks back on 6. June was playing it safe, giving it another week on 11. July a bit too generous.

The next thing to guess at is whether its going south or east

Bruce, those contours are certainly surprising in the location where the buoy is. I can't explain it. Noticeable is the salinity and temperature contours don't coincide exactly but it does suggest somehow water mixing up to the surface. The profiles show a maximum of -0.5 near the surface which should have quite a melting effect on the ice, my interpretation of the drift track is that it is still among the pack.
« Last Edit: July 16, 2017, 10:51:07 PM by Andreas T »

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1562 on: July 16, 2017, 11:03:43 PM »
July 15 PolarView: Stefansson Island upper left and 'large crack' lower right.  (O-buoy 14 location map)
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 05:04:48 AM by Tor Bejnar »
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vigilius

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1563 on: July 17, 2017, 03:37:35 AM »
Just a little gif comparing 7/11 to 7/16 at 2300 UTC. (I've been busy in the analog world, just getting back to this- looks like I missed a lot of fog in the interim, click to animate) At any rate, though we are excitedly looking forward to movement, the features before us are quite constant for now. The peculiarly persistent pond in the near right is still there! (why 2300 UTC? that's about when I start work in the evening LOL)

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1564 on: July 17, 2017, 03:53:53 AM »
From today's Worldview- the clouds partly mask the large lead previously noted but have parted enough to show fracturing east of Lowther Island, the larger of the small islands in the middle of the Parry Channel. #14 is up around the upper left corner of the shot, not 20 miles from the very large curved lead, I expect everyone will be coming back and hitting refresh on the #14 camera image every chance they get. Just hope the equipment holds out.

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1565 on: July 17, 2017, 08:42:09 AM »
Just a little gif comparing 7/11 to 7/16 at 2300 UTC. (I've been busy in the analog world, just getting back to this- looks like I missed a lot of fog in the interim, click to animate) At any rate, though we are excitedly looking forward to movement, the features before us are quite constant for now. The peculiarly persistent pond in the near right is still there! (why 2300 UTC? that's about when I start work in the evening LOL)
Vigilius thanks for this. Staring at the images daily I could swear no change was going on. From your animation it seems top melt is slowly continuing under the clouds and the snow dusting (the right pond is growing again). Also it seems the camera leaned backwards slightly during these 5 days, as the far features have move further away.

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1566 on: July 17, 2017, 12:28:35 PM »
Noticeable movement southward, haven't seen the latitude budge in a long time...   ...hard to tell from these scale factors but it looks to have moved approx seven miles in the last few hours. (assuming it has gone south by 0.1 degrees latitude)

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1567 on: July 17, 2017, 12:48:13 PM »
No recent data from 2017A and 2017B - are they dead?

Jim Hunt

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1568 on: July 17, 2017, 12:52:54 PM »
No recent data from 2017A and 2017B - are they dead?

This year the data only seems to get processed for public consumption about once per week.
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Tor Bejnar

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1569 on: July 17, 2017, 04:52:11 PM »
Per O-Buoy website OBuoy 14 is just north of 74ºN and at about 103ºW.  PolarView image screenshots below (JPG full res. has lines; JPG lossy has variable enlargement) with approx. location circles.

Alas, the image has better resolution above the dark spot in the upper left corner of the enlargement. (Scale: 61 km between 102º and 104º lines of longitude at the 74ºN parallel.)
« Last Edit: July 17, 2017, 05:18:42 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1570 on: July 17, 2017, 11:50:36 PM »
ITP 97 is showing some very strange conditions. Surface waters have been in the -.4 C to -1.2 C range from the surface to 100 meters for over a week. There is also a concurrent shoaling of saline water from depth. I keep expecting to see some reversion to something more normal but everyday I look at the update and things still look weird .  I know one buoy's data might be just a buoy that is putting out bad numbers , but maybe it is the one source on what the water column is doing . What would a breakdown of the thermocline and the halocline look like ?

http://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=155136


The dissolved oxygen plot looks even more extreme. Certainly looks like some big upwelling events happened in the last week or two. Far too deep for bottom contour to affect currents. Could it be volcanism?

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Bruce Steele

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1571 on: July 18, 2017, 12:07:41 AM »
Hyperion, The ITP is dependent upon a sensor running up and down a cable so there are sometimes issues with the mechanics of the sensors daily trip. It does seem like things are settling down a little today but I think the surface temperatures the buoy is reporting should result in some rapid bottom melt.  I am expecting a polynya in the area of ITP 97. 

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1572 on: July 18, 2017, 01:16:13 AM »
The fact that up profiles are so different from down profiles makes me suspect something is wrong with those DO data. I don't know anything about how these are taken, but other ITP profiles don't have that issue.

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1573 on: July 18, 2017, 01:57:04 AM »
If you compare a buoy that has completed it's mission in the Beaufort like ITP69 the T/S composite is visually similar to ITP 97. The comparisons of the DO composites with those two buoys however show some sort of failure of the oxygen sensors on the ITP97 buoy.
 I will continue to watch the temperature / salinity numbers 97 is reporting because those sensors seem to be in working order. The only other ITP reporting is ITP 95 but it is on the Atlantic side. The temperature numbers are I believe telling a story to watch.

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1574 on: July 18, 2017, 07:34:48 AM »
#14 took another tiny jog south today. And the clouds in the 7-17 Worldview are letting some big leads show through, the whole channel is sort of breaking up. Whither #14? South toward McLintock Channel or east toward Resolute? I suppose there could be a betting pool, to include the chance of it washing up on Cowther, Russell or Young Island (LOL)

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1575 on: July 18, 2017, 01:58:46 PM »
2017A and B have updated. 2017A seems to be "bobing in the sea" with top and bottom sounder showing some modal oscillation (hope I'm using the correct term here)
water temperature dropped down after its warm spell, maybe increased mixing? If salty water mixes with ice temperature should drop to a lower equilibrium with ongoing melting, than if melting leads to a freshened meltwater layer under the ice.

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1576 on: July 18, 2017, 03:29:08 PM »

The dissolved oxygen plot looks even more extreme. Certainly looks like some big upwelling events happened in the last week or two. Far too deep for bottom contour to affect currents. Could it be volcanism?


Would Ekman Pumping be more likely?
A low pressure system over broken ice causing upwelling &, possibly leading to polynya formation?


Terry

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1577 on: July 18, 2017, 03:39:34 PM »
A fresh snowfall around O-Buoy 14 makes it look pretty right now.  PolarView image (east and west, dated 2017-07-17) doesn't show the big crack anymore (Where'd it go?). (composite image approx. same size as image posted on July 16 (above), only this pair is rotated, cropped, juxtaposed and rotated back [not quite perfectly])
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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1578 on: July 18, 2017, 09:00:19 PM »
I guess this link will take you to a different image tomorrow but I can't remember quickly where to find the archive, the excellent high resolution 17. 7.  AMSR2 image from UH shows cracks opening to the north and partjy filling in the opened area in Parry channel. ftp://ftp-projects.cen.uni-hamburg.de/seaice/AMSR2/Arc_latest_yesterday_AMSR2_3.125km.png

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1579 on: July 18, 2017, 09:47:16 PM »
PolarView image doesn't show the big crack anymore (Where'd it go?).

Ah - perhaps the explanation is that the ice in the channel all collapsed. Rather impressive polynyas on the north side visible on Worldview now.


vigilius

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1580 on: July 19, 2017, 05:58:25 AM »
Another little 3-day gif, of July 16-17-18, all at 2300 hrs, click to animate. Our friend continues to move southward but for now the ice around it is moving right along with it. We got a pretty good look at the Parry Channel just three days ago when the clouds let us in and the change on Worldview just since then is pretty, well, let's just say "wow".

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1581 on: July 19, 2017, 01:42:08 PM »
The dissolved oxygen plot looks even more extreme. Certainly looks like some big upwelling events happened in the last week or two. Far too deep for bottom contour to affect currents. Could it be volcanism?
Would Ekman Pumping be more likely?
A low pressure system over broken ice causing upwelling &, possibly leading to polynya formation?
Terry
Would methane plumes be more more likely??

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1582 on: July 20, 2017, 03:03:14 AM »
Would methane plumes be more more likely??

You are reading my mind.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2017, 05:25:45 AM by Hyperion »
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Andreas T

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1583 on: July 20, 2017, 10:33:47 AM »
it doesn't surprise me that you like that idea, but it at least 3000m water depth it isn't probable, or plausible. What happened to your earlier idea of pacific water shooting up to the Greenland coast?
The methane idea also does not explain why the lower contours are undisturbed and upwelling should also show up in the salinity contours.

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1584 on: July 20, 2017, 11:35:39 AM »
Hey. who knows? we've only got one buoy that to be honest is providing data difficult to trust with the huge discrepancies between down and up logs. If its using the pretty standard halogenated aluminium opto-fluorescence  DO sensors they are usually very reliable and provided they are not starved for water flow (can't imagine such engineering incompetance personally) should only have a lag of less than a minute to respond to changes. Is it possible that a big subduction zone thermogenic methane plume is consuming all the oxygen, without disturbing the halocline massively? IMHO more plausible than an actual hydrothermal upwelling. And I just can't see how any current interaction with a 3km deep bottom could produce a signature like this. The only other possibility that I can suggest is its a cold fresh meltwater pulse from Alaskan rivers that has let the sediment mass settle out of it, become more buoyant, mixed, warmed, and consumed the oxygen from the water its rising through by breaking down its dissolved organic carbon burden as it surfaces. Velis giant beaver phenomenon. I've been meaning to get a hires bathometry chart and overlay the Buoy track. Maybe in the morning. If there's a canyon  outflow from a major Alaskan river descending the slope there this could be it. We have a submerged 3000+km long river system called the Kaikoura canyon in NZ that was carved by ice age sediment laden glacial melt outflow that leaves the east coast of the south island and has been traced to 2500km nth east of the east cape of the north island over 4km deep on the abyssal plain. Huge canyon maze thats crawling with giant squid where it drops off the continental shelf. Such things can happen.
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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1585 on: July 20, 2017, 12:20:37 PM »
Well I make it somewhere about here. Some 5-600km offshore. Probably the riverine hypothesis as a stab in the dark. Might be the dirty fresh is nosing in between the deep Atlantic and shallower pacific warm layers, and dropping organic sediment through the deeper stuff thats consuming the oxygen, before surfacing. Wild guessing game really. Still could be methane from the pile of muck stacked by plate movement against the shelf. Mostly dissolved at depth. Fizzing and bubble expansion as it nears surface. So less disturbance of the Atlantic warm and salty than the Pacific layer.
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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1586 on: July 20, 2017, 02:44:55 PM »
O-Buoy 14 is on the move. Map shows movement since its computer woke up with spring sunshine.  Screen shots from yesterday's PolarView image. (Click on 'enlargement' for greater enlargement.)
« Last Edit: July 20, 2017, 02:51:18 PM by Tor Bejnar »
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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1587 on: July 20, 2017, 09:13:03 PM »
ITP95, at 85 north roughly between Svalbard and the pole appears to be experiencing some mixing in the last week. Near surface Salinity rising, Temp dropping in the 50-80m range. Looks like some halodecline may be occuring from the waves penetrating the pack.



Bit of a drop in Dissolved oxygen here too. Has to be rising Hypoxic deep water surely?

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1588 on: July 21, 2017, 03:40:35 PM »
Near surface Salinity rising

You've linked to a live plot, which will change ad infinitum (or at least until the buoy bites the dust). Here's one preserved for posterity.

It looks to me as though in actual fact near surface salinity beneath ITP95 is currently decreasing?
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RoxTheGeologist

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1589 on: July 21, 2017, 06:30:27 PM »

That's what you expect during melt season:  That the freshwater from ice melting reinforces the pycnocline.


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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1590 on: July 22, 2017, 02:55:50 AM »
It has a bit. We have just lost a lot of rubble melted out between fram and the pole. There looks to me like a fairly large loss in the thickness of the overall fresher layer. And a ridging up of salinity to depth. Possibly just its location.
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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1591 on: July 22, 2017, 01:22:23 PM »
There looks to me like a fairly large loss in the thickness of the overall fresher layer.

The fact that the buoy is moving seems like the likeliest explanation?
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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1592 on: July 23, 2017, 06:34:53 PM »
that's O'buoy 14's current location, not much longer and ti will reach the great melting zone or better, the melting zone will reach the buoy ;)
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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1593 on: July 23, 2017, 07:43:40 PM »
I really like how the ice is reflected in the ponds  :D

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1594 on: July 24, 2017, 05:37:36 AM »
I don't know where if anywhere to find the sensor string data. But:


2017A
Date: March 9, 2017 - Present
Conditions at Deployment (3/9/2017):
Snow Depth: 0 cm
Ice Thickness: 85 cm

Current Buoy Data (07/17/2017):
Pos: 76.84 N, 152.71 W
Air Temp: -2.4 C
Air Pres: 1019.1 mb

Current Ice Observations (07/15/2017)

Snow depth : 0 cm
Ice thickness : 56 cm [down from 79 in week to 17 july]
Since Deployment (03/09/2017)
All Snow Melted
Ice Surface Melt: 30 cm
Ice Bottom Melt : 32 cm

[seems this one gained 33cm of ice after 9 march, then lost 62cm]

2017B
Date: April 10, 2017 - Present
Conditions at Deployment (4/10/2017):
Snow Depth: 2 cm
Ice Thickness: 169 cm

Current Buoy Data (07/17/2017):
Pos: 84.91 N, 4.99 W
Air Temp: 0.2 C
Current Ice Observations (07/17/2017)

Ice thickness : 142 cm [down from 155 in week to 17th july]

Since Deployment (04/10/2017)
Snow Completely Melted
Ice Surface Melt 14 cm
Ice bottom melt : 36 cm

[seems this one gained 23cm of ice after 10 April, then lost 50cm]

Status of Instrumentation:
All Sensors reporting well
« Last Edit: July 24, 2017, 05:55:28 AM by Hyperion »
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Hyperion

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1595 on: July 24, 2017, 07:30:52 AM »
Well, both hycom and polarportal seem to think these Buoys were in thinner than the average Ice thickness in these areas of floes and rubblefields.

If this is not because they are in particularly puny Floes then we have less ice volume than perhaps even the 5000 cubic km less than piomass says, that one of our chaps Calculated a couple of weeks back from one of these thickness products. Particularly since about half the extent area seems to be slush and rubble.

Losing a third of its thickness in a week to the 17th, I won't be surprised if 2017A in the Beaufort is ice-free by now a week later.
Policy: The diversion of NZ aluminum production to build giant space-mirrors to melt the icecaps and destroy the foolish greed-worshiping cities of man. Thereby returning man to the sea, which he should never have left in the first place.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/McGillicuddy_Serious_Party

Tigertown

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1596 on: July 24, 2017, 07:54:29 AM »
 Hyperion
Losing a third of its thickness in a week to the 17th, I won't be surprised if 2017A in the Beaufort is ice-free by now a week later.

The problem with that is that usually the remaining ice redistributes and gives the false impression that the ice is not melting much. We should know better by the fact that the area and concentration keep dropping. The extent, with the exception of a stall or two, has dropped, but apparently not as much as some had expected. It is a shame there are not more buoys, so as to paint a broader picture of what is really going on.

oren

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1597 on: July 25, 2017, 07:48:39 AM »
At O-Buoy 14, top melt continues at a relaxed pace (snow lowering, ponds deepening and expanding) while the camera continues to lean. Click.

Tor Bejnar

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1598 on: July 25, 2017, 02:41:21 PM »
leaning backwards
Is this related to this O-Buoy 14 GPS information?
Arctic ice is healthy for children and other living things.

ghoti

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Re: What the Buoys are telling
« Reply #1599 on: July 25, 2017, 04:57:21 PM »
2 degrees lean isn't much. Is it related to the movement of the ice to the south lately? Slightly uneven surface melt on the edge of the ice holding the buoy would be sufficient to induce 2 degrees of lean.