Vigilius, these areas have little connection with the part of the Parry channel where Obuoy14 is.
Lancaster sound is deeper and usually ice moves throughout the winter there, this is one of the polynyas where the movement of water into Baffin Bay keeps water surface open.
North of Resolute are other, smaller polynyas which are regular features, again flow from the Arctic ocean to the Atlantic is the cause, warmer temperatures now are enlarging the open water.
The water which opens is flowing towards Baffin Bay and has no effect on the vicinity of Obuoy14.
Next week warm air is expected to flow into the CAA from the south, this is when I expect major changes to the snow cover to show at the buoy, around the 3rd June, i.e. similar timing to last year.
Longer term outlook is of course very dependent on uncertainties in the weather, but we saw inflow of older ice through McClure strait (together with Obuoy14) in the autumn which has collected where my IR image shows the lowest ice temperatures. I think this is more substantial than last year, how it will play out I don't claim to know.
oren, temperatures were still below -10C on 1st May and several days after, so snow will have drifted then. Now I expect it to have fused into a harder firn at least on the surface and without fresh snow fall there will be no movement by wind.