2021 Sea ice area and extent data

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,774,514 KM2 as at 09-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 13k, 12 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 25k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,220 k, which is 842 k, 9.0% more than the 10 year average of 9,378 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Extent is  259 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  575 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  408 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  232 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  125 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 95.6% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 27 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.25 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A modestly below average sea ice gain on this day sees extent up 2 places to 9th lowest in the satellite record. For the next month and maybe more extent will be in the wobbly month before and after maximum.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 09-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,565,246 KM2         

Total Area           12,565,246    km2        142,719    km2   >   2010's average. -271,256    km2   <   2020  528,895    km2   >   2017           Total Change    4    k   gain Peripheral Seas   -7    k   loss Central Seas___    11    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -15    k   loss Bering _______    1    k   gain Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -13    k   loss St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Greenland____    5    k   gain Barents ______    13    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    3    k   gain Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________   -1    k   loss East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    7    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Kara_________    2    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 4 k, 1 k more than the 2010's average gain of 3 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 143 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 529 k more than 2017         
- Area is 238 k more than 2016         
- Area is 271 k less than 2020          
- Area is 263 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 09-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,206,742 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 23 k, 7 k more than the 2010's average gain of 16k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #13 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 210 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 445 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 201 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 258 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 206 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

From NSIDC Data

4 graphs
- High Arctic sea ice Extent & Area
- Peripheral Seas sea ice Extent & Area

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 10^th, 2021:
     13,831,212 km², an increase of 56,698 km².
     2021 is now 11^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

P.S. 2021 ASI extent is at 47,075 km² of reaching the lowest max (2017: 13,878,287 km²).

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,831,212 KM2 as at 10-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 57k, 49 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 8k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,276 k, which is 891 k, 9.5% more than the 10 year average of 9,386 k.

- Extent is at position #11 in the satellite record

- Extent is  181 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  604 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  460 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  185 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  172 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 95.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 26 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.29 million km2, 0.40 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A very high extent gain pushes extent from 9th to 11th lowest in the satellite record
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 10-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,572,473 KM2         

Total Area           12,572,473    km2        146,018    km2   >   2010's average. -303,086    km2   <   2020  598,242    km2   >   2017           Total Change    7    k   gain Peripheral Seas   -0    k   loss Central Seas___    8    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -21    k   loss Bering _______    5    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -14    k   loss St Lawrence___   -1    k   loss Greenland____    7    k   gain Barents ______    18    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    2    k   gain Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    2    k   gain Central Arctic_    2    k   gain Laptev_______   -1    k   loss Kara_________    6    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 7 k, 3 k more than the 2010's average gain of 4 k         
         
- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 146 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 598 k more than 2017         
- Area is 221 k more than 2016         
- Area is 303 k less than 2020          
- Area is 278 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 10-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,229,449 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 23 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average gain of 12k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #13 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 221 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 473 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 228 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 266 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 191 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 11^th, 2021:
     13,853,676 km², an increase of 22,464 km².
     2021 is now 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,853,676 KM2 as at 11-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 22k, 13 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 9k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,299 k, which is 904 k, 9.6% more than the 10 year average of 9,395 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Extent is  138 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  590 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  503 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  205 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  180 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.1% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 25 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.31 million km2, 0.42 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 11-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,589,413 KM2         

Total Area           12,589,413    km2        150,613    km2   >   2010's average. -294,987    km2   <   2020  678,230    km2   >   2017           Total Change    17    k   gain Peripheral Seas    9    k   gain Central Seas___    8    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -24    k   loss Bering _______    7    k   gain Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -17    k   loss St Lawrence___   -0    k   loss Greenland____    9    k   gain Barents ______    26    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    1    k   gain Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_    1    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Kara_________    7    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 17 k, 5 k more than the 2010's average gain of 12 k         
         
- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 151 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 678 k more than 2017         
- Area is 242 k more than 2016         
- Area is 295 k less than 2020          
- Area is 272 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 11-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,269,510 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 40 k, 28 k more than the 2010's average gain of 12k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #13 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 249 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 540 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 278 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 237 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 185 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Stephan]

I added the monthly extent value for January 2021 into my long-term plot where I calculate the extent anomalies from 1979 up to now.
The average (1979-2021) January extent is now 14.23 M km². January 2021 had an average extent of 13.48 M km², which is 0.75 M km² less than that long-term average.
The higher than average extent increase in January 2021 pushed its value above the linear trend line. The difference of the actual month from that trend line is +0.36 M km² (calculated from the linear trend line this January should have been at 13.12 M km²).
The slope of the long-term linear trend line has thus decreased by one digit (-0.0559 instead of -0.0560).

See attached graph. Click to enlarge.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 12^th, 2021:
     13,884,635 km², an increase of 30,959 km².
     2021 is now 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

P.S. Today, 2021 is already 6,348 km² above the lowest maximum on record, which occurred in 2017 (13,878,287 km²).

[Ktb]

Based on date of maximum for the 2007-2020 period, the max could occur as early as Feb 24th or as late as March 31st. 11 to 46 days.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,884,635 KM2 as at 12-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 31k, 11 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 20k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,330 k, which is 916 k, 9.7% more than the 10 year average of 9,414 k.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

- Extent is  55 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  616 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  487 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  238 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  179 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.4% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 24 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.32 million km2, 0.43 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Despite 2 days of above average extent gain, extent rises 3 places from 11th to 8th lowest.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

JAXA data - a bit more

I attach the table comparing this year's current maximum with previous years' maxima.

Alas, the chances of a record low maximum this year are now below zero, on this day 6,348 km2 of sea ice extent less than zero.

Any bets on how high this year's maximum can go?

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 12-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,622,430 KM2         

Total Area           12,622,430    km2        162,027    km2   >   2010's average. -247,746    km2   <   2020  747,468    km2   >   2017           Total Change    33    k   gain Peripheral Seas    20    k   gain Central Seas___    13    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -17    k   loss Bering _______    6    k   gain Hudson Bay___    10    k   gain Baffin  Bay____   -12    k   loss St Lawrence___    0    k   gain Greenland____    8    k   gain Barents ______    25    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    2    k   gain Beaufort_____   -1    k   loss CAA_________   -3    k   loss East Siberian__    3    k   gain Central Arctic_    2    k   gain Laptev_______    0    k   gain Kara_________    10    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 33 k, 11 k more than the 2010's average gain of 22 k         
         
- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 162 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 747 k more than 2017         
- Area is 296 k more than 2016         
- Area is 248 k less than 2020          
- Area is 254 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 12-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,287,985 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 19 k, 4 k less than the 2010's average gain of 23k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #12 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 244 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 560 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 292 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 210 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 146 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 13^th, 2021:
     13,886,614 km², an increase of 1,979 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,886,614 KM2 as at 13-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 2k, 39 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,332 k, which is 877 k, 9.3% more than the 10 year average of 9,455 k.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

- Extent is  17 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  586 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  450 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  290 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  130 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 23 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.27 million km2, 0.37 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Can't download data from NSIDC, so no posting today.
I've sent NSIDC an email, see attached.

Anybody getting any problems downloading data from the file list on https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ ? if not, my computer has got the problem - & only with NSIDC data.
__________________________________________
Hullo NSIDC,

I don't know if this is me or you., as my computer has some problems with File Picker in Windows 10.

When I click on a file to download in the list on https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ nothing, zilch, happens.

So I went to ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/seaice_analysis/ but when I press enter google turns it into a search.

Is it me, or have you changed who can access the data. In some ways I hope it is you.

best regards,

Matt Greenwood

ps: This started to be a problem yesterday but I was able to download using my mobile phone.
Today - no,

[Juan C. García]

Can't download data from NSIDC, so no posting today.
I've sent NSIDC an email, see attached.

Anybody getting any problems downloading data from the file list on https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/sea-ice-tools/ ? if not, my computer has got the problem - & only with NSIDC data.

Hi Gero.
I also experience a problem downloading these files. On Edge, it ask you to downloaded with Edge, Firefox, Crome, etc..., but it doesn't give the option of downloaded with Excel.

Edit: It didn't work with Edge, but I was able to download it with Firefox.

Maybe it is Microsoft, but my computer started to be so slow with Firefox, that I felt that it could be hijacked. It has been a long time that I have problems with Internet (it cuts the conection every minute). Maybe I am just paranoid.

[VeliAlbertKallio]

I have experience similar problems due to Internet service providers struggling with the capacity of networks burdened by remote working with many people (school children with their teachers, office workers with their bosses, colleagues and customers) using live video picture and sound streaming. This of course is due to covid-19 in those countries where pandemic is out of control and remote working a must. I expect these problems disappear when situation normalises in future. My PC just freezes at times when connecting to Internet as the addressing system directing data crashes. At school we see this happening all the time with children disappearing or voice/sound dissipating. 
 <You are welcome to remove my note once new data becomes available to reduce clutter!>

Hi Gero. I also experience a problem downloading these files. On Edge, it ask you to downloaded with Edge, Firefox, Crome, etc..., but it doesn't give the option of downloaded with Excel. Edit: It didn't work with Edge, but I was able to download it with Firefox. Maybe it is Microsoft, but my computer started to be so slow with Firefox, that I felt that it could be hijacked. It has been a long time that I have problems with Internet (it cuts the conection every minute). Maybe I am just paranoid.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 14^th, 2021:
     13,909,170 km², an increase of 22,556 km².
     2021 is 8^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,909,170 KM2 as at 14-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 23k, 28 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 51k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,354 k, which is 849 k, 8.9% more than the 10 year average of 9,506 k.

- Extent is at position #8 in the satellite record

- Extent is  22 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  567 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  362 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  306 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  98 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.4% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 22 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.33 million km2, 0.44 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

Goddam google. I've downloaded Firefox and it works.

Reply from NSIDC below...

Jennifer, Feb 15, 2021, 8:39 MST:
Dear Matt,

Thank you for contacting NSIDC. We have not changed who can access the data, our data are publicly available to everyone. I think the issue you are describing is related to the web browser you are using. Based on the information you have provided I think you are using the Chrome web browser to access the Sea Ice Analysis spreadsheets. The most recent version of Chrome blocks FTP addresses which I think is why the files are failing to download when you click on them. I just tested this myself in Chrome and the files also fail to download for me too.

The easiest option would be to try to access them in a different browser, such as Firefox or Edge. The links on the Sea Ice Tools page or the direct FTP address should work.

Alternatively, if you wish to use Chrome there is a work around, if you right click on the file link and select 'Open link in new tab' the file should download.

I hope this helps but if you have any further questions then please don't hesitate to contact me.

Kind regards,

Jennifer

nsidc@nsidc.org

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 14-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,702,144 KM2         

Total Area           12,702,144    km2        181,577    km2   >   2010's average. -125,958    km2   <   2020  787,206    km2   >   2017           Total Change    44    k   gain Peripheral Seas    23    k   gain Central Seas___    20    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -3    k   loss Bering _______   -0    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    3    k   gain St Lawrence___   -2    k   loss Greenland____    5    k   gain Barents ______    22    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    4    k   gain Beaufort_____    0    k   gain CAA_________   -2    k   loss East Siberian__    4    k   gain Central Arctic_   -3    k   loss Laptev_______    4    k   gain Kara_________    14    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 44 k, 8 k more than the 2010's average gain of 36 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 182 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 787 k more than 2017         
- Area is 442 k more than 2016         
- Area is 126 k less than 2020          
- Area is 203 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 14-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,297,552 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 7 k, 23 k less than the 2010's average gain of 30k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #11 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 200 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 502 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 311 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 191 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 38 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[gerontocrat]

from NSIDC Data - a bit more

Sea ice area increase in the barents and Greenalnd Seas remians very high - Barents sea ice area now 28th lowest and Greenland sea ice area 22nd lowest in the satellite record.

On the other hand Hudson Bay has dipped to a record sea ice area low for a fourth day this year, and little St Lawrence to a record sea ice area low for the 21st day this year.

[halligator]

from NSIDC Data - a bit more

Sea ice area increase in the barents and Greenalnd Seas remians very high - Barents sea ice area now 28th lowest and Greenland sea ice area 22nd lowest in the satellite record.

On the other hand Hudson Bay has dipped to a record sea ice area low for a fourth day this year, and little St Lawrence to a record sea ice area low for the 21st day this year.

Hi Gerento. Long time reader, first time commenter.

I'm noticing a sizeable gap in the ice within the Baffin Bay, based on the University of Bremen data.

Can you include the NSDIC area for Baffin Bay next time?

Thanks heaps. I'm a big fan of your work.

[oren]

Welcome, halligator.

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 15^th, 2021:
     13,974,043 km², an increase of 64,873 km².
     2021 is now 10^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,974,043 KM2 as at 15-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 65k, 24 k more than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 41k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,419 k, which is 873 k, 9.1% more than the 10 year average of 9,546 k.

- Extent is at position #10 in the satellite record

- Extent is  20 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  628 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  300 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  255 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  123 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 21 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.35 million km2, 0.46 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A sharp rise in extent on this day causes extent to slip in the rankings from 8th lowest to 10th lowest in the satellite record.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

from JAXA data - a bit more

I attach the table comparing the current maximum extent with previous year's maxima. With on average about 3 weeks to go to maximum, current extent is already the 5th lowest maximum in the satellite record.

I also attach the current estimate of the February monthly average graph, which assumes average extent gain from now to month end. The graph suggests that the Feb '21 average may be 10th lowest in the satellite record, more than 300k above the linerar trend, and about 100k less than the Feb '20 average.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 15-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,770,144 KM2         

Total Area           12,770,144    km2        206,732    km2   >   2010's average. -45,618    km2   <   2020  795,892    km2   >   2017           Total Change    68    k   gain Peripheral Seas    40    k   gain Central Seas___    28    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    11    k   gain Bering _______   -1    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -3    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    17    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Greenland____   -1    k   loss Barents ______    15    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    4    k   gain Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________   -0    k   loss East Siberian__    5    k   gain Central Arctic_    3    k   gain Laptev_______    5    k   gain Kara_________    10    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 68 k, 25 k more than the 2010's average gain of 43 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 207 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 796 k more than 2017         
- Area is 514 k more than 2016         
- Area is 46 k less than 2020          
- Area is 180 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 15-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,320,607 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 23 k, 11 k less than the 2010's average gain of 34k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 188 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 471 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 311 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 169 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 2 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 16^th, 2021:
     13,978,817 km², an increase of 4,774 km².
     2021 is now 9^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,978,817 KM2 as at 16-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 5k, 8 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 13k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,424 k, which is 864 k, 9.0% more than the 10 year average of 9,560 k.

- Extent is at position #9 in the satellite record

- Extent is  1 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  617 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  270 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  263 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  106 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 97.0% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 20 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.34 million km2, 0.45 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 16-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,802,989 KM2         

Total Area           12,802,989    km2        194,863    km2   >   2010's average. -10,624    km2   <   2020  738,425    km2   >   2017           Total Change    33    k   gain Peripheral Seas    14    k   gain Central Seas___    19    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______    3    k   gain Bering _______   -2    k   loss Hudson Bay___   -2    k   loss Baffin  Bay____    28    k   gain St Lawrence___    2    k   gain Greenland____   -18    k   loss Barents ______    4    k   gain           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    3    k   gain Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    1    k   gain East Siberian__    5    k   gain Central Arctic_   -4    k   loss Laptev_______    5    k   gain Kara_________    6    k   gain

         
Sea ice area gain on this day 33 k, 12 k less than the 2010's average gain of 45 k         
         
- Area is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 195 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 738 k more than 2017         
- Area is 538 k more than 2016         
- Area is 11 k less than 2020          
- Area is 136 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 16-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,321,294 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 1 k, 40 k less than the 2010's average gain of 41k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #10 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 148 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 383 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 281 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 173 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 50 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 17^th, 2021:
     13,875,310 km², a century break drop of -103,507 km². 
     2021 is now 7^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,875,310 KM2 as at 17-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 104k, 92 k more than the average loss on this day (of the last 10 years) of 12k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,321 k, which is 772 k, 8.1% more than the 10 year average of 9,548 k.

- Extent is at position #7 in the satellite record

- Extent is  77 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  520 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  152 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  347 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  7 k MORE than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 19 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.25 million km2, 0.36 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A 103k extent loss. Well, that seemed to come from nowhere. Rare, but not unknown. On the same day in 2015 the loss was 113k. But what happens next?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

from JAXA data  - a little conundrum

Table JAXA-ARC-1 (attached again) calculates the average date of maximum from the simple average of the date of maximum of the last 10 years. The result is the 8th March. The same emthodology applies to the maximum extent calculation - currently 14.24 million

In the Table of Daily Changes attached a new extent is calculated for each day from the 10 year average daily change. The result is the maximum occurs on March 15th, one week later than from Table JAXA-Arc-1. The maximum extent from thgis daily change table is 14.17 million km2, some 70k less than the figure in Table JAXA-Arc-1.

The closer one looks, the more wrinkles. the devil is really in the detail.

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 17-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,791,414 KM2         

Total Area           12,791,414    km2        143,536    km2   >   2010's average. -39,072    km2   <   2020  619,865    km2   >   2017           Total Change   -11    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -17    k   loss Central Seas___    5    k   gain           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -19    k   loss Bering _______   -6    k   loss Hudson Bay___    0    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    30    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Greenland____   -22    k   loss Barents ______   -1    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    2    k   gain Beaufort_____    2    k   gain CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__    5    k   gain Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss Laptev_______    4    k   gain Kara_________    1    k   gain

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 11 k, 51 k less than the 2010's average gain of 40 k         
         
- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 144 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 620 k more than 2017         
- Area is 520 k more than 2016         
- Area is 39 k less than 2020          
- Area is 71 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 17-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,294,719 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 26 k, 59 k less than the 2010's average gain of 33k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 88 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 279 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 251 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 208 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 109 k less than 2012
__________________________________________
You don't often see a turnround from high gains to a sgnificant loss in one day.
JAXA extent dropped by 103k on this day
NSIDC one day extent dropped by 154k on this day, which suggests this might be an event contuing over the next few days.      
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 18^th, 2021:
     13,771,850 km², a 2^nd consecutive century break drop, today of -103,460 km².
     2021 is now 4^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,771,850 KM2 as at 18-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 103k, 105 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 2k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,217 k, which is 667 k, 7.0% more than the 10 year average of 9,551 k.

- Extent is at position #4 in the satellite record

- Extent is  184 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  370 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  41 k MORE than 2017
- Extent is  393 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  99 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 96.9% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 18 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.14 million km2, 0.25 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
Two century break extent losses in a row in January and February have NOT happened at least in this century. So the first record-breaker this year?
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 18-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,770,792 KM2         

Total Area           12,770,792    km2        93,059    km2   >   2010's average. -84,925    km2   <   2020  497,749    km2   >   2017           Total Change   -21    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss Central Seas___   -1    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -23    k   loss Bering _______    3    k   gain Hudson Bay___    5    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    24    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Greenland____   -26    k   loss Barents ______   -3    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______   -0    k   loss Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    3    k   gain East Siberian__    4    k   gain Central Arctic_   -12    k   loss Laptev_______    2    k   gain Kara_________   -0    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 21 k, 51 k less than the 2010's average gain of 30 k         
         
- Area is at position #9 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 93 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 498 k more than 2017         
- Area is 493 k more than 2016         
- Area is 85 k less than 2020          
- Area is 9 k more than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 18-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,250,451 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT LOSS on this day 44 k, 64 k less than the 2010's average gain of 20k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #7 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 24 k more than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 173 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 228 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 269 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 184 k less than 2012   
_________________________________________
You don't often see a turnround from high gains to a sgnificant loss in one day followed by yet another day of large area and extent losses.
JAXA extent dropped by 104k on this day, after 103k the previous day
NSIDC one day extent dropped by 110 k on this day, after 154k the previous day.
the full effect will show in the 5 day data over the next few days.   

And if we see a similar trend for a third day?       
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 19^th, 2021:
     13,748,191 km², a 3^rd consecutive drop, today of -23,659 km².
     2021 is now 3^th lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,748,191 KM2 as at 19-Feb-2021

- Extent loss on this day 24k, 51 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 27k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,193 k, which is 616 k, 6.4% more than the 10 year average of 9,578 k.

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Extent is  236 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  308 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  31 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  365 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  145 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 97.2% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 17 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.08 million km2, 0.19 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
A 24k loss against an average 27k gain would be of note in most years.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge

[gerontocrat]

NSIDC Total AREA as at 19-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 12,749,128 KM2         

Total Area           12,749,128    km2        47,216    km2   >   2010's average. -111,096    km2   <   2020  387,562    km2   >   2017           Total Change   -22    k   loss Peripheral Seas   -19    k   loss Central Seas___   -3    k   loss           Peripheral Seas          Okhotsk______   -27    k   loss Bering _______    5    k   gain Hudson Bay___    8    k   gain Baffin  Bay____    22    k   gain St Lawrence___    1    k   gain Greenland____   -24    k   loss Barents ______   -5    k   loss           Central Arctic  Ocean Seas          Chukchi______    1    k   gain Beaufort_____    1    k   gain CAA_________    2    k   gain East Siberian__    4    k   gain Central Arctic_   -11    k   loss Laptev_______    1    k   gain Kara_________   -1    k   loss

         
Sea ice area loss on this day 22 k, 46 k less than the 2010's average gain of 24 k         
         
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record.         
- Area is 47 k more than the 2010's average         
- Area is 388 k more than 2017         
- Area is 458 k more than 2016         
- Area is 111 k less than 2020          
- Area is 42 k less than 2012         
___________________________________________         
NSIDC Total EXTENT as at 19-Feb-2021 (5 day trailing average) 14,207,909 KM2         
         
NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT loss on this day 42 k, 58 k less than the 2010's average gain of 16k         
         
- EXTENT is at position #6 in the satellite record.         
- EXTENT is 35 k less than the 2010's average         
- EXTENT is 99 k more than 2017         
- EXTENT is 184 k more than 2016         
- EXTENT is 287 k less than 2020          
- EXTENT is 241 k less than 2012
_________________________________________
JAXA extent loss on this day 24k
NSIDC one-day extent gain 35k on this day

Event over?         
___________________________________________         
Note: Click an image for full-size         

[Phil.]

"NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 42 k, 58 k less than the 2010's average gain of 16k"

Sorry to nitpick but shouldn't that be: : "EXTENT loss on this day 42 k"?

[be cause]

Hi Gero. .. last 2 days you report NSIDC sea ice extent GAINS   b.c.

[gerontocrat]

Hi Gero. .. last 2 days you report NSIDC sea ice extent GAINS   b.c.

"NSIDC Sea ice EXTENT gain on this day 42 k, 58 k less than the 2010's average gain of 16k"

Sorry to nitpick but shouldn't that be: : "EXTENT loss on this day 42 k"?

Bummer - corrected. I need an AI algorithm to spot this stuff and autocorrect me - as long as I don't have to say "sorry, Alexa" or even worse "Sorry, Bixby".

[gerontocrat]

Here is a look at NSIDC Area data in my JAXA analysis format to see if recent events have made much difference.

NSIDC ARCTIC SEA ICE AREA:  12,749,128 KM2 as at 19-Feb-2021

- Area LOSS on this day 22k, 46 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 24k,
- Area gain from minimum on this date is 10,117 k, 466 k, 4.8% more than the 10 year average of 9,651 k.
- Area is at position #8 in the satellite record

- Area is  54 k MORE than 2010's Average
- Area is  -111 k LESS than 2020
- Area is  458 k MORE than 2016
- Area is  -42 k LESS than 2012
______________________________
On average 95.0% of Area gain from minimum to maximum done, and 20.1 days to maximum

Projections.
Average remaining area gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March of 13.26 million km2, 0.56 million km2 above the 2017 minimum maximum  sea ice area of 12.70 million km2.
_______________________________________________________
Area losses somewhat less than extent losses
________________________________________________________

[Juan C. García]

[ADS NIPR VISHOP (JAXA)] Arctic Sea Ice Extent.

February 20^th, 2021:
     13,752,226 km², an increase of 4,035 km².
     2021 is 3^rd lowest on record.
     In the graph are today's 15 lowest years.
     Highlighted 2010's average, 2021 and the 5 years with daily lowest minimum:
          (2012, 2020, 2019, 2016 & 2007)

Source: https://ads.nipr.ac.jp/vishop/#/extent.

[gerontocrat]

JAXA ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT:  13,752,226 KM2 as at 20-Feb-2021

- Extent gain on this day 4k, 31 k less than the average gain on this day (of the last 10 years) of 35k,
- Extent gain from minimum on this date is 10,197 k, which is 585 k, 6.1% more than the 10 year average of 9,613 k.

- Extent is at position #3 in the satellite record

- Extent is  347 k LESS than 2020,
- Extent is  273 k MORE than  2018,
- Extent is  25 k LESS than 2017
- Extent is  371 k LESS than 2013
- Extent is  161 k LESS than the 2010's Average
_____________________________________________
On average 97.5% of extent gains  from minimum to maximum done, and 16 days to maximum

Projections. (Table JAXA-Arc1)

Average remaining extent gain (of the last 10 years) would produce a maximum in March 2021 of 14.03 million km2, 0.14 million km2 above the March 2017 record low maximum of 13.88 million km2.
_______________________________________________________________
The current extent maximum of 13.98 million km2 of the 16th Feb is NOT increased using the remaining extent gain in 4 out of the last 10 years.
_______________________________________________________________
N.B. Click on image to enlarge