Transport and self driving vehicles

[Sigmetnow]

Sig, Our US conventional oil supplies have been in decline for years, most of our shale basins are in decline.
A huge portion of the US public is in denial and thinks we can maintain economic growth and our current oil powered society for many many more years, decades more without any need to switch to solar or wind.
 So there is no problem with oil and the real problem is liberals their electric cars and all the troubles of the world caused by liberals, like immigration.
 It isn’t just MAGA , it is a major portion of our fellow Americans who think everything is just fine and money spent on renewables( especially tax money ) is wasted.
 We don’t have town halls and talk about our divisions in our society,  so acting out with road rage is just the tip of the iceberg.
 Just wait until the Permian Basin starts it’s inevitable decline . That will mark when our divisions go tilt.

Bruce, it certainly seems that way, much of the time.

Trump recently told advisers that if he wins the 2024 election, he wants to impose a 60% tariff on all imports from China.  This will thrill MAGA Republicans and auto workers who act out because deep down they are terrified that EVs, and particularly Chinese EVs, will be the end of their jobs.

But US manufacturers depend on China suppliers.
< China does not pay this tariff, US importers like myself pay it, and then I raise prices on US customers to cover it.  If I didn't I would go out of business. 

And if that tariff did happen, China would retaliate with its own, and the OEMs’ China market, which they can’t afford to lose, will disappear.
 
1/28/24, https://x.com/leadingreport/status/1751686127952498821
 
1/28/24, https://x.com/stevenmarkryan/status/1751754449977229781

 
Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, the former governor of Michigan and longtime EV owner (who currently drives a Ford Mach-E) noted that 60% of US EV factories are in Red States.  It will take a little time, but people who work in those factories, people who see the power benefits, the cost benefits compared to filling up at the pump, will take a different view as EV prices become equal or less than ICE.
➡️ pic.twitter.com/PXAxEZ2K4H  2 min.

Adults carry emotional baggage that kids do not….
 
Got flipped off in the cybertruck today lol ➡️ pic.twitter.com/7HRMD82fC0 
 
Officially the cutest Sentry Mode footage my Cybertruck has ever taken ➡️ pic.twitter.com/ZXtAEpxegP 

Yet this Texas Facebook poster celebrated her Cybertruck delivery:

“Yeehaa! Picked up our Cybertuck today 🤠 Y'all think we are the 1st back county rednecks to get one? What a kick! It's like driving a spaceship 🚀” - Cathy Smith via Cybertruck Facebook Group

➡️ pic.twitter.com/N3CKp3QfE8 
 
Above reactions from: https://x.com/astrojordy/

The transition from horse-transport to cars must have been as equally contentious. But as Tony Seba says, the EV adoption S-curve #autocalypse is almost upon us.

[gerontocrat]

I've wondered for some time why Tesla's FSD uses cameras that restrict themselves to the visible light part of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Animals by using parts of the spectrum humans cannot see add to their chances of survival.
Humans use cameras that see infra-red especially at night to find humans and other creatures.

click attached image twice for fullsize.

[Sigmetnow]

I've wondered for some time why Tesla's FSD uses cameras that restrict themselves to the visible light part of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Animals by using parts of the spectrum humans cannot see add to their chances of survival.
Humans use cameras that see infra-red especially at night to find humans and other creatures. …

Tesla uses IR to monitor the inside of the cabin:
 
Tesla Model S Plaid Has In-Cabin Infrared LEDs, Possibly for Driver Monitoring
https://teslanorth.com/2021/06/19/tesla-model-s-plaid-has-in-cabin-infrared-leds-possibly-for-driver-monitoring/

#highlandmodel3 #tesla also features a infrared interior camera too. 🤔 pic.twitter.com/db4vMu3aC1
1/27/24, https://x.com/16luca/status/1751421766352969951

CyberTruck interior camera. It looks like its infrared like the S/X.
Its also restricted which is interesting. pic.twitter.com/hDJ6tdJbW3
12/13/23, https://x.com/tesla_winston/status/1735101070651932923
 
 
Perhaps, given the illumination that vehicle headlights are required to provide, the three different field-of-view front-facing cameras, along with more advanced image processing, provides adequate (and improving) resolution and motion detection even in the visible spectrum?  I seem to recall that the different cameras use different parts of the spectrum.
 
There’s the “occupancy network” software:

Along with the removal of USS [UltraSonic Sensors], we simultaneously launched our vision-based occupancy network – currently used in Full Self-Driving (FSD) Beta – to replace the inputs generated by USS. With today’s software, this approach gives Autopilot high-definition spatial positioning, longer range visibility and the ability to identify and differentiate between objects. As with many Tesla features, our occupancy network will continue to improve rapidly over time.

https://www.tesla.com/support/transitioning-tesla-vision

The video examples I posted above suggest that FSD already sees more than what humans often see.
 
But, other cars use IR to detect rain, and Tesla does not, which may explain why its “auto wiper problem” remains….

[Sigmetnow]

Rivian doesn't have an internal camera so you can text and drive all you want and no one cares. The car won't ding at you or anything.
 
In fact, Rivian sent an OTA update to DEACTIVATE the interior camera in older cars, and doesn't even install one in newer vehicles.

1/31/24, https://x.com/dirtytesla/status/1752867035741053360
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/KKZVbxkSHG  23 sec clip of driving a RIvian while holding a phone

[Sigmetnow]

Waymo robotaxis can hit California highways after state approval

SAN FRANCISCO — California regulators on Friday granted Alphabet’s self-driving car division Waymo permission to expand its robotaxi service to include highways in several Bay Area cities and large swaths of Los Angeles, a massive expansion that comes amid concerns about the impact more driverless cars will have on city streets.

The decision by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) allows the company to deploy its robotaxis on local roads and freeways at speeds up to 65 mph. But Julia Ilina, a Waymo spokesperson, said in a statement that the company plans to take a “careful and incremental approach to expansion” and has “no immediate plans” to expand its robotaxi service to highways.

The ruling still marks a massive expansion for the company, which has been offering its 24/7 robotaxi service in San Francisco and Phoenix for months. The company is testing its cars on freeways in California with a safety driver behind the wheel, but in Phoenix, the tests have no human driver on highways, Ilina said. The company does not currently bring passengers on highways.

Friday’s decision follows sharp opposition from local officials — particularly in San Mateo and Los Angeles counties — who tried halting the expansion, arguing that they should have more power over how, and if, the technology is deployed on their streets. In a November letter to the state commission, Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass said she worried about the “adverse impacts” the expansion would have.

“In a city that spans 500 square miles, has a population of approximately 4 million people, and contains 7,500 miles of roadways, the risk is exponentially greater,” she wrote.

But the CPUC, which regulates the technology for the state, said in its decision that Waymo has “complied with the requirements” and may expand immediately. Despite the opposition, Waymo also received support from a range of groups in California — including the California Chamber of Commerce and the California Bicycle Coalition.

“CalBike sees autonomous driving technology as an opportunity to improve roadways across California and nationwide,” the coalition said in a statement. “Waymo’s technology has the potential to create a safer roadway environment by removing human error and observing rules of the road — such as speed limits — which many human drivers fail to do.”

Still, the angst around driverless cars is likely to continue in California, where several incidents last month fed public officials’ safety concerns about the vehicles coming to their cities. For example, over several days in February, a Waymo vehicle smashed into a closing gate while exiting the University of Southern California’s campus, and the next day, another car collided with a cyclist in San Francisco.

Then, days later, the company announced a voluntary recall of its software for an incident involving a pickup truck in Phoenix.

None of the incidents resulted in major injuries. …

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2024/03/01/waymo-expands-california-los-angeles-highways/

[Sigmetnow]

A Ford Mustang Mach-E, apparently on “partial automation,” (Blue Cruise) crashed into a stopped car on the highway, killing the other driver.
 
US agency probes driver assistance system use in fatal Ford crash
Mon, March 18, 2024

WASHINGTON, March 18 - The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration said on Monday it has opened an investigation into a recent Ford Mustang Mach-E fatal crash in San Antonio, Texas, where authorities suspect an advanced driver assistance system was in use.

On Friday, the National Transportation Safety Board opened a separate investigation into the Feb. 24 crash, saying initial information indicated the Ford struck the rear of a Honda CR-V that was stationary in a traffic lane on Interstate Highway 10.
A San Antonio police report said the Ford had "partial automation" engaged at the time of the crash.

NHTSA is opening a special crash investigation into the Fatal Ford accident. The agency typically opens more than 100 special crash investigations annually into emerging technologies and other potential auto safety issues.

Since 2016, NHTSA has opened more than three dozen Tesla special crash investigations where advanced driver assistance systems such as Autopilot were suspected of being used with 20 crash deaths reported.* This is NHTSA's first special crash probe involving a Ford advanced system.

The police report said the driver of the Honda CR-V, 56-year-old Jeffrey Allen Johnson of Austin, was taken to a hospital and later pronounced dead.

Ford has said its BlueCruise is an advanced hands-free driving system that operates on 97% of U.S. and Canadian highways with no intersections or traffic signals.

The NTSB said it was investigating the crash "due to its continued interest in advanced driver assistance systems and how vehicle operators interact with these technologies."

A Ford spokesperson said the automaker "reported this incident to NHTSA as soon as we were made aware, and we are actively researching all available information. Safety is a top priority for all of us at Ford, and we will collaborate fully with any resulting investigation."
The NTSB has opened several investigations in recent years into advanced driver assistance systems, including Tesla's Autopilot.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-us-agency-probes-driver-210705996.html
 
*Note this does not say that any Tesla automation was found to be at fault, nor that the Tesla driver was at fault.

   —-
The Tesla community has been puzzled recently why YouTuber “Jerry Rig” has come out so vocally against FSD.  He specifically maligns its “hands on wheel” instructions, compared to anything hands-free.  He’s been pushing Ford’s Blue Cruise.  And now we see that Ford is paying for ads featuring him doing so.

AI DRIVR
hey @ZacksJerryRig if you’re ever in CA let me know, I’d love to show you how much better Consumer Reports’ lowest rated driver assistance software is, compared to BluesClues! 

3/18/24, https://x.com/aidrivr/status/1769812444837208073
⬇️ Image below from:  < pic.twitter.com/FaQq2C0dhc 

    —-
Sandy Munro rode with a Ford engineer a couple years ago to test BlueCruise — and he dinged it particularly for its poor performance around curves.  Apparently that problem has not been solved:

Ray
Seems Blue Cruise doesn’t work that well even on controlled access highways. @ZacksJerryRig

3/18/24,   https://x.com/ray4tesla/status/1769855612274540973
pic.twitter.com/qZGZVaKmpP  Textpic:

“@sandmansparadox/836 • 7h ago
I canceled my Blue Cruise subscription because every time my Mach E went around a turn, it would bounce between the lines trying to center itself and then deactivate the blue cruise because it was bouncing to much left to right.
You did not have this issue?”

[John_the_Younger]

I drove for the first time with Tesla's FSD version 12.3 last night.
For translation: 3 mph = 4.8 kph; 10 mph = 16 kph; 15 mph = 24kph; 25 mph = 40 kph;
                      30 mph = 48 kph; 40 mph = 64 kph; 1/4 mile = 0.4 km
            We drive on the right, so an early and 'lazy' left turn puts us in the oncoming traffic lane.

The bad news: 
1) I 'almost' intervened when it crossed into a double-yellow-line surrounded no car zone which the car crossed to get to the dedicated left turn lane.  (Other drivers regularly do this, but I do so only when stopped cars in the lane prevent me from getting to the turn lane legally - there is a dedicated left-turn light that is only activated when a car is at the turn lane's stop line, and the turn light precedes the straight-ahead light - and the intersection has an appox. 3-minute light cycle.)  I didn't intervene becasue the car did not get into in the on-coming traffic's lane.
2) When moving into a long dedicated right-turn lane, v.12.3 moved half way into the turn lane, then moved a quarter of the way back, then moved fully into the turn lane (no other cars were nearby); v.11 hasn't done this sort of thing for a long time.
3) At a non-intersection where the road takes a sharp right turn (signage, including on the road surface, and a flashing yellow light you'd hit if you went straight), v.12.3 slowed to 3 mph well before the turn.  (I let it do its thing as there was nobody behind me.)  When going the other way on the same road earlier (a sharp left turn), v.12.3 drove appropriately, as v.11 always did (both ways), slowing to about 10 mph.
4) Near my home, it drove off the narrow dirt lane and stopped (still half on the road but heading toward the end of a short hedge that lines the lane); it was going only 3 mph in the speed limit 10 zone before it stopped. (While stopped I 'intervened.')  Under v.11, FSD either jerked back and forth within the lane (obviously uncertain, but proceeding because I had my foot on the accelerator) or, with earlier versions, FSD just disengaged (with the alarm).

The good news:
1) All intersection turns were smooth and well timed.  (One place FSD v.11 always (wanted to do) did a very lazy left turn, getting fully into the on-coming traffic lane at a blind corner, v.12.3 stopped at the stop line, proceeded straight at a crawl until it could 'see' around the corner [then fully stopped briefly - why? there was no other traffic] and then made the turn in a non-lazy manner.)
2) There was no (trying to) getting into dedicated turn lanes when we were going straight.
3) The repeated (under v.11) funky (some indecision) behavior on a very wide driving lane at a railroad crossing went smoothly.
4) The FSD v.11 used to always get in the right lane when a single lane turned into two lanes (regardless of other cars' choices); v.12.3 choose the left lane, which was just fine (both lanes were backed up).
5) The FSD v.11 usually choose the left of two dedicated left turn lanes at an intersection, but as we have a right turn a quarter mile after the left turn, I prefer being in the right lane; v.12.3 choose the right lane.
6) My neighborhood has multiple 10 mph signs posted (We mean it!); v.11 originally treated them all as 25 mph, but a couple months ago treated the first sign as a 10 mph but all others as 25s; v.12.3 read them all as 10 mph. (Yeah!)

Other observations:
1) I set the speed control to automatically go 5% over the speed limit (if, of course, speed control is engaged) but manually adjust it according to typical driving conditions on different road sections, from exact speed limit to 15 mph over (after a traffic circle where the posted speed limit doesn't go up for a quarter mile).  V.11 almost always went with my 'decision' (other traffic allowing).  V.12.3 sometimes didn't get to my desired speed, choosing somewhere between the posted speed limit and my setting.
2) Along one section of rural road along which I travel both ways, the posted speed limit in one direction is 30 mph and in the other it is 40 mph.  Under v.11, it read the posted speed limits; under v.12.3, it "knew" the speed limit increased to 40 (where the speed limit decreases in the other direction) and set the speed control accordingly.

On the whole: incredible improvements!

[Sigmetnow]

My first drives with Tesla FSD (Beta) V12.3. 
In brief: even in Chill mode, on well-marked roads near town it drives more confidently than I do!

But after leaving town, driving manually, Navigation spent the rest of the trip requesting U-turns back to highways, rather than recalculating to proceed via the secondary road I was on.

Second trip was an 8-mile loop on old, twisting, creek-side deep valley roads.  For half the route, the road was marked with yellow lane divider lines; FSD did well.  It disengaged twice for sudden oncoming traffic on the narrow road, and I braked once for a surprise encounter with three big turkey buzzards feeding on road kill.  Second half of the loop had no lane lines!  V11 would have driven down the middle of the road, but V12 kept to the right, maintaining a speed of around 25 mph (speed limit was 35).  That felt slow, but there was no traffic behind, and the ride was very smooth.  At that speed, the car dealt well with oncoming traffic, and a dog running across the road.

In sum: notable improvements in driving but a step back in navigation, perhaps for safety reasons with this new software.  Looking forward to the three or four updates said to be coming in the next few weeks.

[John_the_Younger]

Further comments re:

I drove for the first time with Tesla's FSD version 12.3 last night.
...
The good news:
...
6) My neighborhood has multiple 10 mph signs posted (We mean it!); v.11 originally treated them all as 25 mph, but a couple months ago treated the first sign as a 10 mph but all others as 25s; v.12.3 read them all as 10 mph. (Yeah!)

Other observations:
...
2) Along one section of rural road along which I travel both ways, the posted speed limit in one direction is 30 mph and in the other it is 40 mph.  Under v.11, it read the posted speed limits; under v.12.3, it "knew" the speed limit increased to 40 (where the speed limit decreases in the other direction) and set the speed control accordingly.
...

re #6: I usually drive out of the community manually, and didn't notice that it thinks the speed limit going out is 25, but it does read it as 10 all the way in.

re #2: They put up a new 40 mph sign that I didn't notice ... 

[Sigmetnow]

BMW is advertising highway Level 2 hands-free driving including lane changes but it's neither available nor approved by regulators.
Even BMW dealers complain about the ads. …
3/25/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1772263171333517554
 

Lucille Chadwick
 
So @BMW is advertising their hands-free Level 2 highway assistant everywhere, allowing you to change lanes by just looking in the side mirror. That's why I booked a test drive online with BMW and also received a confirmation for it. They then asked by email what I was particularly interested in and I said the hands-free motorway assistant. Then I arrive at BMW and the salesman doesn't know anything about a test drive. Apparently the head office didn't communicate it to the dealer. OK, quite shite so far, shown the confirmation email, he said he will complain blah blah, then made a new appointment for another day. Then he asks again for the correct car to confirm and I say yes but please with the hands-free assistant. Then he explains to me that unfortunately it is not yet available because of the law, and that also traffic light recognition is unfortunately not yet possible, and that they have a lot of such requests and that the headquarters are actually just causing problems for them with this advertising for future functions. So the appointment was canceled and we agreed for the salesman to get in touch with me as soon as the system was available at some point.
 
All in all, legacy experience straight from hell. Simply nothing at all worked with this “customer service”.

3/25/24, https://x.com/lucillechad/status/1772249036893946307

 
——
Herbert Ong and Cern Basher
A company in Europe has accumulated 5,000 Teslas, and are buying more, so they will be prepared to offer a robotaxi business.
 
Robotaxi models:  $1.00 to $0.30 per mile, plus base rate and idle time.
 
In a few years, as owners watch their Tesla depreciate but don’t want to share it on a network… a robotaxi buyer will knock on their door and offer them more than the book value for the car — because owners can make much more than that in profit by adding it to their network.
 
1 min clip: ➡️ pic.twitter.com/F25VGFYD8i   
 
The Tesla Robotaxi GAME CHANGER (Business and Stock) - YouTube 
1h12m  March 24, 2024. (I watched at 1.5x speed.)
 
➡️ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vM-FFNMBLnA&feature=youtu.be

 
—-
Tesla is offering a one-month-free trial of its “Full Self Driving (Beta)” system to any Tesla in US or Canada that can run V12.3, the the all-neural-net, AI version of the software.  The normal subscription price is $199 per month.
 
Tesla to offer free one-month trial of FSD software to U.S. customers
March 26, 2024
https://www.cbtnews.com/tesla-to-offer-free-one-month-trial-of-fsd-software-to-u-s-customers/

Rohan Patel @rohanspatel
No issue on FSD that i know of with Transport Canada. We have been doing a lot of educational efforts with Transport Canada and many other regulatory bodies on our supervised FSD system. In general, regulators seem quite impressed.
3/26/24, https://x.com/rohanspatel/status/1772804132690350242
 
Teslascope
Full Self-Driving (Beta) V12.3.1 is now going out to vehicles in Canada for the first time. 🎉
Additional testing prevented V12.3 from going out to vehicles in Canada, which has now been finalized.
3/27/24, https://x.com/teslascope/status/1772878476346884483

[John_the_Younger]

Further to what I reported above, a few more comments:

1) It still routinely wants to cross the double yellow line in the no-car zone just before a dedicated left turn lane, and I now regularly intercede and report my complaint.

2) It still routinely slows down too much and too early for the sharp turn in the road (but only for the right turn - it does the left turn going the other way excellently).  The recommended turn speed is 15 mph (24 kph) and it still slows to 10 mph (and early) before I press on the accelerator to do the curve reasonably. (I did disengage FSD once so that I could report a complaint.)

3) FSD 12.3 did once try to run a red light - the yellow light wasn't terribly short and it turned red when we were about 2 meters from the stop line [i.e., the car had no excuse], but I was the one to hit the brakes.  (We'd have been just like so many others who run red lights but almost "catch" the tail end of the yellow - an accident was unlikely in this instance.)

4) At a two left turn lanes intersection with me in the left lane of the two, FSD 12.3 turned too soon/too much and was heading straight for the raised concrete median end [the raised median that created the divided road] before I took over.  (A car pulling a trailer hugged the other turn lane's dashed white line, so I don't know what my car was so afraid of.)

5) When moving into a dedicated turn lane, it frequently vacillates after it starts the lane change, but it hasn't weaved back and forth like it did the one time.

6) FSD version 12.3 still does so many things more smoothly than version 11.x did.  It really is a delight!

[Sigmetnow]

—- If VW succeeds in developing Autonomous Vehicles with Mobileye they Will Not Sell Them to Customers

"We want to offer test drives for customers in Hamburg before the end of this year - under real conditions," announced Volkswagen Commercial Vehicles boss Carsten Intra at the annual press conference. The plan is to start in the second half of the year. Initially, it will be a trial run with selected users. In two years, the service should then go into regular operation at the Group subsidiary Moia.
 
VW is working on the project with Intel subsidiary Mobileye, which is providing the automation technology for the electric van. Regular sales of the autonomously driving ID. Buzz AD is not planned. The vehicle is intended exclusively for mobility services such as Moia.

3/29/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1773658033354150145


—- Examining Tesla FSD, robotaxi demand and financials

Here's a 2 hour, super detailed chat with the great @jamesdouma discussing Tesla's progress with FSD v12.
James is an AI expert and has closely tracked this space for many years.

3/30/24, https://x.com/farzyness/status/1774254838903136496

118 min.  March 30, 2024.  Watchable at 1.5x playback speed.
On 𝕏 ➡️ pic.twitter.com/vhwhbT33dh 
Or Youtube:
Tesla FSD v12 Just Changed Transportation Forever w/ James Douma - YouTube
 


Here’s a summary:
 

Comments on FSD V12:

1. Tesla's FSD V12 update marks a significant improvement over the previous versions, with a complete overhaul of the system using an end-to-end neural network approach. This has resulted in a drastic reduction in interventions and improved handling of complex situations.

2. Hardware 3, despite being 5 years old, is still a highly capable platform for running FSD, and its full potential is yet to be realized. The majority of future improvements will likely come from software optimization rather than hardware upgrades.

3. The rollout of FSD V12 to all capable vehicles in the US is seen as a move to increase data collection and a sign of Tesla's confidence in the system's performance.

4. The potential for a Tesla robotaxi service is discussed at length, with James providing detailed insights into the economics and market dynamics of such a service. He believes that robotaxis could be highly profitable and disruptive to the transportation industry.

5. Competitors face significant challenges in developing their own self-driving systems, largely due to the high costs, long development times, and the need to produce purpose-built electric vehicles at scale.

6. The discussion also touches on the potential implications of Tesla's FSD technology for the development of the Tesla Bot (Optimus) and the future of transportation in general.

 
Regarding the potential for a Tesla robotaxi service, James provided a detailed analysis of the economics and market dynamics:
 
1. The net present value of a Tesla with robotaxi functionality could be around $200,000, depending on various factors and the timeframe considered.

2. In a model based on Chicago's rideshare data, James estimates that a fleet of 10,000 robotaxis could satisfy the current demand in the city, with each vehicle driving an average of 55,000 miles per year, including deadhead miles.

3. The operating cost per mile for a robotaxi is estimated at $0.46, while the average revenue per mile is around $2.50. This means that each robotaxi could generate $100,000 in annual profit.

4. With 10,000 vehicles each generating $100,000 in profit annually, the total profit for the Chicago market alone would be $1 billion per year.

5. Extrapolating this to the entire US market, James believes that around 1 million robotaxis would be needed to satisfy the current urban demand, potentially generating $100 billion in annual profits at the current price points.

6. However, as more competitors enter the market, prices are expected to decrease. Tesla could still operate profitably at rates as low as $0.60 per mile, considering the low cost of producing purpose-built robotaxis (around $20,000 per vehicle).

7. James estimates that the long-term demand for robotaxi miles in the US could reach 1.5 trillion miles annually, which is significantly higher than the current rideshare market.

8. The profitability of the robotaxi market is expected to be highest when there are around 1-4 million vehicles in operation. As the number of vehicles increases to 20-40 million, the market will become more commoditized, with lower margins but still a substantial overall market size (potentially $500 billion annually).

3/31/24, https://x.com/andrewwperkins/status/1774437316909826359

From my notes:
- Need to have a robotaxi fleet big enough to service the surge on Friday & Saturday nights, and around dinnertime.  But then 90% of the time, 50% of your fleet is sitting unused.  Key for superior service will be to preposition robotaxis using AI so that a vehicle arrives within 30 sec to 1 minute of when one is requested. This minimizes deadheading as well, and increases demand because the service is dependable.
It would only take 200 vehicles to do this for Chicago.
 
- As we transition to rideshare, the important metric is not how many ICE cars are eliminated, but rather how many fewer miles are travelled by the remaining ones.
 
- If EV makers go with NVIDIA or other non-tesla ADAS system, it will require at least 5 years and a billion dollars to write the software and get the data needed to develop it.  That’s today; it will be less expensive later when compute is cheaper.

 
James Douma provided a long thread with lots of graphs describing the rideshare model he discussed in the video.  Based on Chicago and its taxi/rideshare services — the city offers a wealth of data detailing it.
 
Here’s an excerpt:

jimmah @jamesdouma
On yesterday's chat with Hans and Farzad I mentioned some stats about rideshare demand. I'll share a few details in a thread here.
This is napkin math but it's based on real demand data and I think it illustrates the business potential.
⬇️ Useage heatmap below from: pic.twitter.com/ou5z2HipZJ 
  —-
We can use Chicago as a baseline to gauge the rideshare demand available to robotaxis and estimate fleet size, revenue, and utilization to inform a model of the robotaxi market at the 1M vehicle US fleet scale.
We need 10k vehicles to service up to 6500 rides at peak usage.
.
.
.
Extrapolating to the whole US you get a 1M vehicle fleet generating $100B gross profit per year.  Naturally, there will be competition, regulatory barriers, fights with incumbents, and pushback from various quarters so actual results will vary, perhaps substantially. 
 
But the potential for the underlying business is extraordinary.
 
Looking even further ahead, a cost floor of $0.40/mi allows for expansion beyond current rideshare demand, potentially commoditizing half or more of all vehicle miles in the US. 
 
50% of US vehicle miles with $0.60 revenue / $0.40 cost per mile is $250B of profit on $750B of revenue.  That's a very big industry.  And that's only the US.
 
This is data to flesh out the discussion from the last ten minutes of [the] conversation.

3/30/24 https://x.com/jamesdouma/status/1774199547272851471

[nadir]

BMW is advertising highway Level 2 hands-free driving including lane changes but it's neither available nor approved by regulators.
Even BMW dealers complain about the ads. …
3/25/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1772263171333517554
 

Lucille Chadwick
 
So @BMW is advertising their hands-free Level 2 highway assistant everywhere, allowing you to change lanes by just looking in the side mirror. That's why I booked a test drive online with BMW and also received a confirmation for it. They then asked by email what I was particularly interested in and I said the hands-free motorway assistant. Then I arrive at BMW and the salesman doesn't know anything about a test drive. Apparently the head office didn't communicate it to the dealer. OK, quite shite so far, shown the confirmation email, he said he will complain blah blah, then made a new appointment for another day. Then he asks again for the correct car to confirm and I say yes but please with the hands-free assistant. Then he explains to me that unfortunately it is not yet available because of the law, and that also traffic light recognition is unfortunately not yet possible, and that they have a lot of such requests and that the headquarters are actually just causing problems for them with this advertising for future functions. So the appointment was canceled and we agreed for the salesman to get in touch with me as soon as the system was available at some point.
——

That’s akin to what Tesla did from 2016 to 2022. Even worse. Promised robotaxis and finally delivered the Level-2 shite.

[nadir]

Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.

[Sigmetnow]

Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.

You post enough crap about Tesla to more than make up for any “rosy” reporting.  Are you ashamed?

[NeilT]

Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.

You post enough crap about Tesla to more than make up for any “rosy” reporting.  Are you ashamed?

touche.

[nadir]

Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.

You post enough crap about Tesla to more than make up for any “rosy” reporting.  Are you ashamed?

Crap, that’s affirmative. Musk is constantly creating imaginary crap years before the slightest tech exists, kicking them down the road for many years to keep you hypnotized. Now we have three-five years of $25k model ahead and indefinite years of Robotaxi down the road, speculation to keep the stocks inflated; add the Optimus, the Semi, the Roadster 2 with rockets, the Solar, the Hyperloop, the Dojo, the swappable batteries, the 4680 cells and keep counting.

[Sigmetnow]

Sigmetnow: don’t you ever get ashamed of your rosy reporting on Tesla and the crap you throw at everything else? It’s quite embarrassing don’t you think? Pointing to the specks of others’ eyes, so to speak, and not seeing Tesla’s log. Or so says the bible about hypocrisy.

 
You post enough crap about Tesla to more than make up for any “rosy” reporting.  Are you ashamed?

Crap, that’s affirmative. Musk is constantly creating imaginary crap years before the slightest tech exists, kicking them down the road for many years to keep you hypnotized. Now we have three-five years of $25k model ahead and indefinite years of Robotaxi down the road, speculation to keep the stocks inflated; add the Optimus, the Semi, the Roadster 2 with rockets, the Solar, the Hyperloop, the Dojo, the swappable batteries, the 4680 cells and keep counting.

 
Debate Tip:  Spewing a blob of Whataboutisms and lies does not help your argument.  It simply emphasizes your lack of knowledge, and encourages corrections and clarifications, like these:

 
The smaller Tesla and Robotaxis will make their debut this year on August 8.  (See the job openings post I added to the Tesla thread.)  Prepare for another massive disruption of the automotive industry!

There never was a “Tesla Hyperloop.”  However, Musk’s white-paper describing potential Hyperloop technology was taken up by other companies in the US, Canada, India, Dubai, France, the UK and South Korea.
 
https://canadianbusiness.com/ideas/hyperloop-train-network-elon-musk-transpod/
 
https://www.bayut.com/mybayut/all-about-dubai-abu-dhabi-hyperloop/

What Tesla does have is the “Vegas Loop,” which is operating, successfully, using Teslas in tunnels in Las Vegas. The Boring Company is currently digging its way to more hotels and venues on the Strip.
 
Tesla Cybertruck to join Vegas Loop fleet
January 10, 2024
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/tesla-cybertruck-to-join-vegas-loop-fleet/
 
The Boring Company Acquires Land near UNLV for University Center Loop
JANUARY 19, 2024
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/the-boring-company-acquires-land-near-unlv-for-university-center-loop/

TBC is has recently assembled their latest TBM at Giga Texas, to construct a tunnel to connect the factory’s logistics lots on either side of the neighboring highway.  A rather direct alternative to a bridge or more roads.

The Boring Company
Prufrock 3 lined up in Texas. Designed for rapid continuous mining (i.e. never stops), though achieving 100% utilization will be quite difficult. ➡️ pic.twitter.com/5EyXd0UPyq

3/2/24, https://x.com/boringcompany/status/1764095364242846108

The @boringcompany continues final prep to start tunneling at Giga Texas, with part of the belt conveyor system installed & the small “train” cart for concrete tunnel sections on site. Generators getting fueled up & crews working on cooling system pipes & connections. 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/O1rgyo8zoS

3/4/24, https://x.com/joetegtmeyer/status/1764683344686567742
 
—-
Tesla semi: Besides Pepsico’s operational fleet, Tesla has a fleet of about 100 semis working every day transporting parts and vehicles.

Tesla Giga Nevada Semi Factory Progress Update
4/7/24, https://x.com/hinrichszane/status/1777151138913239175
➡️ pic.twitter.com/svMNa423g7  7 min., but really all that’s needed is a screencap ⬇️
(And before you say anything, remember TeslaQ’s dismissal of the “muddy field” which became Giga Shanghai in record-setting time.  The video discusses the infrastructure that’s already been laid.)
 
Tesla Semi delivering reengineered Tesla Model 3s in Ultra Red, from Fremont factory!
4/5/24, https://x.com/alsultan_meriam/status/1776447526692098405
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/o1COcETd70 

—-
Swappable batteries in cars is neither economically sound nor smart for large fleets.  Tesla offered swappable batteries years ago.  They quickly found almost no one wanted to do it.  Why risk getting a different battery with an unknown history in your car?  Nowadays, Supercharging with Tesla’s smart navigation (only charge as much as you need) means a charging session is often only 15 or 20 minutes.  No one who knows anything about Tesla talks about battery swapping these days.

—-
Dojo exists!  FSD is no longer compute constrained.  4680 cells are in fleets worldwide, their use is growing, and Panasonic and others are building factories to make more of them.  I see you don’t mention the hugely successful Tesla Energy.  Only a fool would dismiss conversations about Tesla’s potential revenue from Optimus (and Roadster 2 — the base model, still expensive, huge profit margin, but no rockets)….

[Sigmetnow]

Cruise press release
 
Cruise resumes manual driving as next step in return to driverless mission

Looking to the next chapter, our goal is to resume driverless operations. As we continue working to rebuild trust and determine the city where we will scale driverless, we also remain focused on continuing to improve our performance and overall safety approach. To that end, Cruise is resuming manual driving to create maps and gather road information in select cities, starting in Phoenix. This work is done using human-driven vehicles without autonomous systems engaged, and is a critical step for validating our self-driving systems as we work towards returning to our driverless mission. This will help inform where we ultimately will resume driverless operations.
…
Adaptive Fleet Learning
Cruise’s AV stack is based on AI technology that learns from information gathered through our driving experience and retrains and evolves our models continuously. The fleet learns from every intersection, construction zone, and road sign it encounters, and applies that knowledge to other environments and scenarios – much the same as a human driver learns, but with far more data and the ability to impart that continuous learning across the entire fleet.
…

Steps Prior to Driverless Operations
The first step is identifying high fidelity location data for road features and map information like speed limits, stop signs, traffic lights, lane paint, right turn only lanes and more. Having current and accurate information will help an autonomous vehicle understand where it is and the location of certain road features. We also measure our perception and prediction systems against our elevated performance criteria, using trained safety drivers as a benchmark. At this stage, no autonomous systems are engaged and the vehicles will not carry public passengers.

Next, we’ll validate our AV’s end-to-end performance against our rigorous safety and AV performance requirements through supervised autonomous driving on public roads, in addition to the ongoing simulation and closed course driving we do. During this phase, the Cruise vehicles will drive themselves and a safety driver is present behind the wheel to monitor and take over if needed. …

https://www.getcruise.com/news/blog/2024/cruise-resumes-manual-driving-as-next-step-in-return-to-driverless-mission/

=====
 
😂  Re: Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised)’s tendency to scrape the curb:
 

Your robotaxi arrives. What do you do?

4/9/24, https://x.com/28delayslater/status/1777742918545268817
⬇️ pic below. pic.twitter.com/MKwpRLJdjV 
 
< Get excited about close curbside service!
< Feel validated that I have the same skill set as 1B miles driven
< Robotic on aggressive mode. Seat belt up and go!!!
< Laugh
< Break out in hives.
< Wait a few years until they add LiDAR.
< Elon on 8/8: "Let me introduce the new robotaxi rim."
 
[lots more at the link]

[Sigmetnow]

Here's what it looks like when a Waymo vehicle requires human intervention
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/fSXJxNTR73  
 
5 min. Driving loops inside the post office operations parking lot, like a Roomba stuck in a closet.  Passenger “Kevin” is extremely patient and polite; apologizes to irritated Post Office guy.  Remote assistance can’t fix things; human finally arrives and gets in the car to finish the drive manually.

Full video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbEplrZ-uSA&feature=youtu.be  [35 min]

—-
Mustang Mach-e operating on BlueCruise crashed into a Honda CR-V on a Texas highway, causing a fatality
 
NTSB Newsroom
NTSB issues its preliminary report for the ongoing safety investigation of the Feb. 24 collision between an SUV operating with partial driving automation and a stationary SUV in San Antonio, Texas
4/11/24, https://x.com/ntsb_newsroom/status/1778504963183755452
 
https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/Pages/HWY24FH006.aspx

[Freegrass]

Pretty good short little video from Sabine on electrified highways for trucks in Germany.
I don't see it happening.

The best solution comes at the end.

[Sigmetnow]

NEWS: Hyundai is teasing its robotaxi.
 
"IONIQ 5 robotaxi is an autonomous EV that learns from every traffic situation it comes across. With over 30 in-built sensors, including LiDAR, radar and cameras, the IONIQ 5 robotaxi has 360-degree vision, allowing it to detect obstacles from any angle, to transport passengers to their destinations - starting this year. Stay tuned for the driverless future."

4/13/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1779280726715760938
 
< 🤣 if they only know it will take 31 sensors to solve Robotaxi. Too bad Hyundai.
 
< They're only 94% sure that's a person?
<< Makes sense.  5% Scooter 1% Elvis

[NeilT]

Maybe it was confused by the fake flames coming out of fake exhaust ports....

[Sigmetnow]

JerryRigEverything @ZacksJerryRig

—- Congrats to @MercedesBenz for being the first automaker in the USA to sell Level 3 autonomous cars that don’t require drivers to watch the road 😉
fortune.com/2024/04/18/mer…. [ see below ]
4/20/24, https://x.com/zacksjerryrig/status/1781801228068102163
   —
The biggest difference between Level 2 and Level 3 driving is the liability shift. With Level 3 (when it's conditions are met) the driver can *legally* not pay attention to the road. And Mercedes is fully responsible for their software while it's enabled.
Level 3 is not Level 5 though. So the driver still needs to be avaliable to take over when prompted.
 
https://www.caranddriver.com/reviews/a45326503/mercedes-benz-drive-pilot-review/

Timmy
- only on specific freeways
- only up to 40 mph
- not in rain
- not at night
- not in tunnels
- not in construction zones
- only with a preceding car
- only at temperatures of >4.5 °C
4/20/24, https://x.com/elektrotimmy/status/1781807490381852938
 
JRE: Correct! Level 3 is not a Level 5. I'm glad everyone is on the same page.
 
Techgnostik 🫶
That wasn't the point of this list of restrictions. The point is that it's so restrictive, it's basically useless in the real world. Great for the marketing department though.
4/21/24, https://x.com/techgnostik/status/1782012799444832577

 
⬇️ Highlighted restrictions phone textpic below from: pic.twitter.com/p3PGYTDYCZ 

 
Mercedes becomes the first automaker to sell autonomous cars in the U.S. that don’t come with a requirement that drivers watch the road
 
- California and Nevada are the only two states where the company can legally sell the technology to consumers.
- The automaker’s chief technology officer Markus Schäfer expects that level 4 autonomous technology will be available to consumers by 2030.

Drivers can activate Mercedes’s technology, called Drive Pilot, when certain conditions are met, including in heavy traffic jams, during the daytime, on specific California and Nevada freeways, and when the car is traveling less than 40 mph. Drivers can focus on other activities until the vehicle alerts them to resume control. The technology does not work on roads that haven’t been pre-approved by Mercedes, including on freeways in other states. …

https://fortune.com/2024/04/18/mercedes-self-driving-autonomous-cars-california-nevada-level-3-drive-pilot/

   —-

… Tesla's FSD (Supervised) has none of these restrictions. You can use it on nearly any road in the U.S. You just need to lightly touch the steering wheel every 30 seconds.

4/20/24, https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1781866374400204938

[NeilT]

It is nice to know that in congested and crawling traffic on a good day on a pre mapped route, that Mercedes has delivered a 10 year old child to mind your vehicle whilst you do other things...

[Sigmetnow]

Robotaxi Regulations

NicholasGibbs
For those who think "Regulators" are the limiting factor to @Tesla deploying 'Auto'nomous vehicles please update your biological NNs with the Florida Law for AVs.
 
Now IMO when a state like Florida deploys AVs other states will compete to not be left behind.

4/21/24, https://x.com/nickgibbsiag/status/1782036654338834519
 2 Textpics re FL regs attached below.
 
The state of Florida has a large elderly retiree population, so a safe autonomous driving system may be especially beneficial there.
 

Alex
Florida could be among the first US states where Tesla introduces unattended FSD at Level 4, as no regulatory hurdles or permits are required there.
 
Given the rapid progress of FSD, an introduction of FSD at SAE L4 (with passenger in the driver's seat but unsupervised) is IMHO likely by the end of the year.
4/22/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1782323916720976131
 
Elon Musk
Maybe

4/22/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1782435330680889755
 
 
—-
AI DRIVR
FSD V12.3.4 already surpassing the driving capabilities of many people in San Francisco.
➡️ pic.twitter.com/iB4zGiaKtL  15 sec. Failure to yield.

 
——-

AI DRIVR
Please integrate @grok into Tesla vehicles @elonmusk
 
Elon Musk
Coming

4/22/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1782312840772096033
 
⬇️ pic.twitter.com/vM9npevZMi  AI DRIVR‘s 𝕏 post image below. 
 

[Freegrass]

This video fits right in here. His criticism is valid, and his solution brilliant.

[Sigmetnow]

Autonomous systems can be more alert and courteous than most humans.
 
—-
FSD immediately slows down as soon as the Semi Truck indicates to merge.
I was impressed by the quick reaction time.
➡️ pic.twitter.com/8291jDPDjr 5 sec. Speed change is indicated by the line labelled with the green arrow on the left, showing when power (black line) is reduced and regen braking (green line) is being applied.

—-
AI DRIVR
FSD V12 "imagines" turn signals from other vehicles' behavior
➡️ pic.twitter.com/uAh4DPcxYB  10 sec.  The truck’s human driver does not actually signal, but FSD adds a turn signal to its display image to indicate it has calculated the truck’s probable path and its upcoming turn.

—-
Tesla FSD will make cyclists safer on the road, even when they run stop signs
➡️ pic.twitter.com/3horhUrTxa  39 sec.  We are at a Stop sign, making a right turn, and cyclist zips by on the right, when a human would be looking left to check traffic.  Benefit of cameras all around!

—-
⬇️ pic.twitter.com/i7kdcF48AX 

[NeilT]

This video fits right in here. His criticism is valid, and his solution brilliant.

Oh yeah lets have a bike.

People like this I want to send to Zurich and make them cycle.  Offices are mainly out of town.  Zurich sits in a lake and river valley.  Most of the offices out of town are UP.  I cycled for 5 months to my offices.  In the morning UP.  In the evening when I have all the time in the world, DOWN.

Rain, shine, snow, hail, same journey.

Whilst many of the criticisms are valid, reality is that the disruptive element will be identified and then unable to book a taxi. They will get the ability to do this once then they will be blocked.

So whilst a damaging impact may happen at the outset, the service will become slowly better.  When the drunks realise that they have no way to get home from the city they will stop throwing up on taxi's.

Also why hold up a single person on a single taxi when you can take a bus and get many people?  OK the bus is a harder nut, but the robotaxi is going to be 100% connected and an alert will go out immediately.

[kassy]

Who replies to that alert?

[NeilT]

Depending on the agreement the lowest common denominator will be the police.

[Sigmetnow]

This video fits right in here. His criticism is valid, and his solution brilliant.

… the robotaxi is going to be 100% connected and an alert will go out immediately.

Who replies to that alert?

I imagine it would be the same as other automatic vehicle emergency services, such as OnStar, which a human answers and determines what emergency response is needed.  IIRC, Tesla automatically contacts emergency response for you if an airbag is deployed, although they give you the option to cancel if you want.  Tesla drivers report that Tesla called them immediately after a crash, checking to see if they are OK, and offering any assistance needed.

For a robotaxi, there will be cameras monitoring the ride, and whenever you summon a vehicle, your ID info will be recorded, of course.  So as NeilT mentions, there would likely be repercussions for bad behavior.

Tesla has made a point of saying that people who put their personal vehicles on the network can choose who can use it — family members, friends, etc.  People who put their car for rent on Turo or similar rental services occasionally have horror stories, but with Tesla and other fleet services putting large numbers of their own vehicles on the network, the odds are that company-owned vehicles will be the ones affected by “bad actors.”

[kassy]

I don´t think the police are very interested in cleaning out the car. Since the things robodrive it can easily transport a comatose drunk even if the person vomits on the floor along the way. You just need to get up and get out at the destination. If the person fell asleep why should the police come and solve it? Seems like a waste of tax money.

[Sigmetnow]

I don´t think the police are very interested in cleaning out the car. Since the things robodrive it can easily transport a comatose drunk even if the person vomits on the floor along the way. You just need to get up and get out at the destination. If the person fell asleep why should the police come and solve it? Seems like a waste of tax money.

No reason for police to respond to every drunk taxi rider — after all, we want drunks in robotaxis, not behind the wheel of a car.  But the service that monitors the in-cab cameras (or the next customer, who reports a filthy vehicle to the service) will route the car back for a cleaning.  Then another taxi can be routed to the customer, the responsible party can be identified and the police can be notified only if need be.

Analysts calculating robotaxi revenue have included the possibility that someone might rent a robotaxi simply as a safe place to sleep for a few hours.  If that person is willing to pay, no problem.

[Sigmetnow]

Found the link to the post and the analyst video I was thinking of:

https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,1392.msg397794.html#msg397794

The Tesla Robotaxi GAME CHANGER (Business and Stock) - YouTube 
1h12m  March 24, 2024. (Watchable at 1.5x speed.)
 

[Sigmetnow]

The NHTSA has opened a preliminary probe into Ford's BlueCruise "hands-free highway driving" software.
The investigation follows two fatal accidents in which the system was engaged at the time of the collision.
 
NHTSA opens investigation into Ford BlueCruise following accidents
By Zachary Visconti April 29, 2024

The NHTSA’s Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) says it received two different complaints of accidents from drivers of the Mustang Mach-E, both in which it confirmed that the BlueCruise system had been engaged at the time of the collision. The ODI says that both accidents took place during nighttime lighting conditions, while each incident resulted in at least one fatality.

The Mach-E vehicles in both incidents had been equipped with the Co-Pilot360 Active 2.0 suite and BlueCruise, which offer semi-automation features such as speed and lane maintenance. BlueCruise also utilizes a driver monitoring system and can only be used on certain pre-approved roadways, which Ford says cover around 97 percent of controlled-access highways in North America.

Those involved in the investigation were both operating in Ford’s pre-approved “Blue Zones.” Ford calls the BlueCruise system a “hands-free highway driving” system on its website.

Following the investigation, the NHTSA can either decide to move forward with the probe and send a recall request to Ford, or it can close the investigation. …

https://www.teslarati.com/nhtsa-ford-bluecruise-accidents/

 
The probe also follows a separate investigation opened by the NTSB last month, after another Mustang Mach-E had the software equipped during a fatal accident.
 
NTSB: Ford BlueCruise engaged in fatal San Antonio, TX crash
By Simon Alvarez April 12, 2024
https://www.teslarati.com/ford-bluecruise-engaged-fatal-tx-crash-investigators/


——-
EDIT:
The most recent number I can find for miles driven on BlueCruise is this from last October:

Ford says customers have spent 1.4 million hours driving 100 million hands-free miles and counting enjoying and using BlueCruise, which now reportedly operates on 97 percent of controlled-access highways across the U.S. and Canada.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/ford-blue-cruise-1-3-first-test-review/

Also, re the other crash:
“A police news release on the crash says a criminal investigation is underway and a charge of homicide by motor vehicle while driving under the influence is possible against the 23-year-old woman driving the Mach E.”
https://www.cbs7.com/2024/04/29/us-opens-investigation-into-ford-crashes-involving-blue-cruise-partially-automated-driving-system/

[Sigmetnow]

NEWS: Lidar supplier Luminar Technologies laid off 20% of its staff today amid a new business restructuring
The lidar tech company will look to outsource industrialization to automotive partners
May 03, 2024

Lidar supplier Luminar Technologies Inc. laid off 20 percent of its staff Friday amid a new business restructuring.
Approximately 140 employees were let go, according to the company. Roughly 560 employees remain to help pivot Luminar toward an "asset light" business model, the company said.

Luminar now looks to outsource much of the industrialization process to its auto industry partners. It counts Volvo Cars and Mercedes-Benz as customers, along with Chinese automaker SAIC, tech supplier Mobileye and other global automakers and trucking companies.
…
Luminar reached the start of production at global scale on the Volvo EX90 last month. Delays in that program contributed to Luminar's woes.
…
Only days before Friday's announcement, Luminar and other sensor companies received a regulatory tailwind from the federal government.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration rolled out a new safety standard which requires automated braking systems to detect and avoid pedestrians by September 2029.
 
Experts believe it will require automakers who use camera-only systems to incorporate other types of sensors like radar and lidar.
Luminar hailed the rule as a "milestone for automotive safety and a massive tailwind for long-range lidar technology."

https://www.autonews.com/suppliers/luminar-lays-staff-amid-lidar-delays

And yet vision-only Teslas regularly outperform other vehicles, many with LiDAR, in safety tests….
 
Here some highlights from the latest crash tests: ➡️ pic.twitter.com/kx31DnhFMv  26 sec. EuroNCAP.  Quick clips of cars hitting test kids, pedestrians, cyclists. VW, NIO, Mercedes, Vinfast, Hyundai, BYD

[Sigmetnow]

Hyundai is spending close to $1 billion to keep self-driving startup Motional alive
May 2, 2024

Hyundai has agreed to spend nearly $1 billion on Motional, an investment that will give the automaker a majority stake while providing the self-driving startup with the necessary capital to keep operating.

The Korean automaker invested $475 million directly into Motional as part of a broader deal that includes buying out joint venture partner Aptiv. As part of the deal, Hyundai will spend another $448 million to buy 11% of Aptiv’s common equity interest in Motional, according to information revealed Thursday in Aptiv’s first-quarter earnings report.
…

Motional started as Boston-based autonomous vehicle startup nuTonomy in 2013, before being acquired by Delphi for $450 million. Delphi would later split it’s business with the Aptiv unit absorbing nuTonomy. The entity became Motional under a $4 billion Hyundai-Aptiv joint venture in 2019. While it’s clear from Aptiv’s earnings report that the company is trying to manage risks and optimize finances amid a less positive outlook, the company’s retreat, and Hyundai’s step forward, raises questions about Motional’s future.

In March, TechCrunch reported that Motional secured a bridge loan for an undisclosed amount as a lifeline while the AV startup secured its next round of longer-term funding. While it’s likely that this funding round from Hyundai fits that bill, Motional has not responded to TechCrunch’s request for more information about whether it will need to acquire more investors in the future.

Motional has been testing its autonomous vehicles with a safety driver behind the wheel in Boston, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and Singapore. The company’s go-to-market strategy involves partnering with existing ride-hail platforms like Uber, Lyft and Via to give customers rides. Motional has stated its goal of launching a robotaxi service using driverless Hyundai Ioniq 5 vehicles in 2024.

Motional and Hyundai announced plans in November 2023 to co-develop production-ready versions of the all-electric Ioniq 5 robotaxi at the automaker’s new innovation center in Singapore, the Hyundai Motor Group Innovation Center Singapore (HMGICS). During CES 2024, Motional also announced plans to work with Kia on a next-generation vehicle that will enter commercial operations later this decade, with initial development stages beginning this year.

Motional’s financial shifts come as the robotaxi industry continues to face uncertainty. The startup has been inching slowly towards commercialization, launching pilots in at least five cities. Crucially, Motional has not yet begun charging for rides or deliveries yet. …

https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/02/hyundai-is-spending-close-to-1-billion-to-keep-self-driving-startup-motional-alive/

[Sigmetnow]

—- Mercedes DrivePilot
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/TeCtstEcVK  6 minute video.  I don’t know who this is, but I’d say it’s a rather neutral but accurate review.
 
Today I learned:  there is no way to retrofit DrivePilot onto the car if it was not originally built with the LIDAR and other sensors.
 
A less-neutral WMC makes many of the same points and agrees with this quote from the video:

…
20. "I came away from my time with DrivePilot a bit mystified. It's clear that developing this system was a complicated endeavor, with all the added sensors and complexity and while it was on I have to say it worked pretty flawlessly. But with the operating conditions being so narrow, I couldn't shake the thought of 'is this all worth it?' from my head.
 
Even trying to film this video was difficult, as the vehicle would hand control back just as we were getting going especially with that low 40 mph speed threshold. And if I were paying $2,500 a year to use this system and it wouldn't stay on, I would find that pretty frustrating" …

5/4/24, https://x.com/wholemarsblog/status/1786852512177545409

 
—- Waymo returns to San Francisco

In the coming weeks, we will begin testing fully autonomous rides — without a human driver— for our employees on San Francisco Peninsula city streets north of San Mateo.
   —
Expanding our service across the Peninsula will take time. We'll continue taking a careful and incremental approach, following our safety framework and working closely with city officials, local communities, and first responders.

5/3/24, https://x.com/waymo/status/1786425484122738862
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/pagnfkW6QP  map of Waymo’s planned SF coverage area.

But Waymo’s system may not be ready yet for driverless service….

Needs more lidar…

5/4/24, https://x.com/matthewdr/status/1786872897195405551
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/bIB7zwpJPM   Sensor-studded Waymo car deals with traffic backup at an intersection by going the wrong direction in an open lane.

[Sigmetnow]

We’ve discussed the need for this many times here:  the ability for the car to communicate new or unusual traffic situations to the rest of the fleet, in real time and in regular updates.

Elon Musk
Probably start rolling out 12.4 next week
 
Farzad
Cannot wait to see the improvements. With FSD v12, the 12.X releases have been pretty major.  This version should take advantage of Tesla’s big jump in training compute.
 
Elon Musk
12.4 has almost completely retrained models. The final touches are for comfort, as it sometimes accelerates or brakes too fast for most people’s taste.
 
12.5 and 12.6 are in various stages of testing. We’re getting into rare, complex situations, for example: going down a narrow, one-way road, encountering a road closure and having to reverse out to find a new route. 
 
That closure also needs to be communicated to the rest of the fleet, so you don’t get a whole bunch of Teslas stuck down a road 😂

5/8/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1788236700709175700
 
A situation Waymo experienced in 2021:
Self-driving Waymo cars pile up on dead-end San Francisco street


=====
 
stevenmarkryan
Billionaire Investor BLOWN Away By Tesla FSD v12
Tesla users are reporting on Reddit that their car is uploading 10 GB of data a night.  115 GB/month.  This could not have happened years ago — it required planning for the day the wifi infrastructure was built to enable it. 
The Waymo/Cruise model, with perhaps a few thousand, very expensive cars that the company pays for, cannot gather the vast amount of data required to train an AI — particularly needed to find the situations to solve those last 1 to 2% edge cases.
 
~31 min. 

 

Elon Musk
 
Accurate analysis.
 
Only about 1/10,000 of distance driven is useful for training.
The limiting factor for FSD progress was AI training compute, but now it is validation, as the interventions are so rare.

5/7/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1787768103449010597

 
=====
 
SoftBank-Backed Self-Driving CEO Says Tesla Is Taking After Him
‘It’s nice for them to join the club,’ Wayve Co-Founder and CEO Alex Kendall says of the EV maker pursuing an end-to-end approach to autonomous driving.
May 7, 2024

Self-driving vehicle development has had no shortage of setbacks in recent years.
 
Uber sold off its driverless car division after a fatal crash it never recovered from. Argo AI, the startup Ford and Volkswagen had each seeded with billions of dollars, folded after its backers lost patience with how long it was going to take to commercialize the technology. General Motors’ Cruise is crawling back from a crisis precipitated by one of its cars running over and dragging a pedestrian.
 
So the news that Wayve, a UK self-driving startup founded in 2017, has raised $1.05 billion from high-profile investors including SoftBank, Microsoft and Nvidia is a welcome boost for the sector. It also underscores the extent to which investors can’t get enough of all things artificial intelligence.
 
Wayve wants carmakers and other fleet operators to install its technology into their vehicles, rather than own or operate cars itself. It’s working on a self-driving system that learns driving rules and patterns on its own in real-time, so that it can respond to new surroundings and unpredictable scenarios on the road. Wayve and Tesla refer to this as an end-to-end approach.
 
In a Q&A with Hyperdrive, Alex Kendall, Wayve’s co-founder and chief executive officer, compared and contrasted the tack he and Elon Musk are taking to developing this technology. Here are the highlights from the conversation, which are edited and condensed for length and clarity: …

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-05-07/softbank-backed-self-driving-ceo-says-tesla-is-taking-after-him

=====
 
Here an autonomous vehicle reacts with impressive courtesy, patience, problem solving and navigation, through a parking garage, traffic-clogged city streets and a maze of highway interchanges/exits [time lapse]:
 

Chansoo Byeon
 
Tesla FSD drove the entire way from underground garage to home after a Toronto FC game last night... (~50 minute drive). Check out the moments below!
 
this is insane in a good way…
 
0:05 underground parking escape success
0:34 Liberty Village night traffic
2:00 super narrow and backed up road 🤯
 
[keeps intersection clear for other cars.  Lets others in ahead. At red light with short approach lane, lets (signaling) pickup truck in left lane pull in front to turn right.]
 
4:00 left a gap for traffic to flow - very nice
5:35 truck driver cuts in & FSD handles it perfectly
6:02 Highway merge (QEW). [handles stopped car partially blocking our lane]
8:00 Highway interchange
9:38 Highway interchange 2
11:50 Highway exit

5/5/24, https://x.com/byeonchansoo/status/1787297026742358513
Stops briefly for pedestrian by the curb who MIGHT be crossing, but doesn’t.  Deals with many cars parked on the side of the street.
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/U0aA5XILWH 

[Sigmetnow]

Waymo  @Waymo
Our safe and deliberate approach to scaling the Waymo Driver is gaining traction, as we’re now serving more than 50,000 paid trips every week across three major cities. Thank you to our riders for trusting us to get you to your destinations safely and reliably.
5/9/24, https://x.com/waymo/status/1788693361047515522
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/g0ws4QnV7v  1 min vid. Started 10 years ago with a little egg-shaped car… now 50,000 trips/week.

 
Brett Winton
Waymo now driving 40,000 miles per day
 
Tesla doing roughly 15,000,000 FSD miles per day and perhaps 200,000,000 miles daily across the fleet.
In war that will be won by data, the company with the largest number of endpoints will win.
 
< So, Tesla's fleet is driving 375x more miles on FSD per day than Waymo's fleet is driving.
 
<< According to regulatory filings by Waymo, 75% of their miles driven in California in 2023 had a human driver.
3,669,962 miles out of 4,858,890 were test miles with a human driver
 
pic.twitter.com/JeI1hb6LPC Spreadsheet
 
So… Waymo mostly-supervised?

 
=====

It turns out, Mercedes’ ADAS can be activated in daylight on roads other than the specific highways it was designed for.  Here’s why people won’t.  😱 😂
Bonus: Omar’s dad, telling him how to drive [because Dad’s Mercedes’ ADAS doesn’t handle the roads as well as Omar’s Tesla’s FSD].

Tesla FSD vs Mercedes Driver Assistance!
We put a brand new Mercedes EQS side by side with a FSD Tesla on the same road. Is Mercedes really a better system as @ConsumerReports claims? Let's find out.
5/9/24, https://x.com/wholemarsblog/status/1788654918024532226
20 min.  Twisty coast road, 44 manual disengagements, almost all for lane departure — Pretty much every curve required a takeover.  Plus, even more numerous automated “take over” warnings.
 
… While the inset shows the Tesla drove the same route, often at a faster speed, with no interventions.

 

Elon Musk
Tesla is half a decade ahead or more
5/10/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1788831792331460930
WMC: My Dad and I were saying that it was worse than 2014 Mobileye AP1. So at least a decade behind currently IMO. It would probably take them 3 - 5 years / half a decade just to license and integrate FSD from Tesla if they announced a deal now

=====
 
Tesla is Luminar’s largest LiDAR customer 😂  [for gathering testing data]
$LAZR  ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/C3xA0dJ4zQ

[Sigmetnow]

Hyundai is spending close to $1 billion to keep self-driving startup Motional alive

 
Update:
Hyundai Motor's joint venture self-driving company 'Motional' has laid off its employees and postponed plans to commercialize its technology.
n.news.naver.com/article/001/00…
5/8/24, https://x.com/tslachan/status/1788356297727033581
 
< Another one bites the dust
 
Elon Musk
FSD is a very hard problem
 
stevenmarkryan
What many "analysts" fail to understand is that other companies can't just copy Tesla's homework.
If you don't have the fleet, you don't have the data.
If you don't have the data, you don't have a chance.

Elon Musk
Exactly
5/9/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1788448140485382319
 
 
=====
 
NEWS: GM has announced that starting this week, their Cruise division will begin supervised autonomous driving in Phoenix, Arizona.
"For the past several weeks Cruise has been mapping and collecting road information in Phoenix."
 
https://www.getcruise.com/news/blog/2024/cruise-resumes-supervised-autonomous-driving-with-safety-drivers/

[nadir]

This one is an interesting perspective about the robotaxi business

https://x.com/yilunzh/status/1790586763586437385

[NeilT]

True but it doesn't address the changing nature of vehicles, public transport and the volume of robotaxi rides which would be significantly higher if prices fall to that predicted.

Yes entrants into robotaxi would find it hard.  Someone like Tesla who routinely invest billions in moon shot projects, not so hard.

[Freegrass]

This one is an interesting perspective about the robotaxi business

https://x.com/yilunzh/status/1790586763586437385

Maybe, but I have a Poppy account now. Whenever I need a car, I look at the app to see if one is parked nearby, and then I walk to it, open it, and start driving. When I'm done, I can just park it in front of my door.

This concept is growing here, and I can see them swap out their cars one day for full autonomous ones. Need a car? Just call one on the app. Same deal, different car.

https://poppy.be/

[Sigmetnow]

As soon as there is a second or third player that can achieve similar capabilities, the economics will simply get competed away.

Long term, you end up having similar economics as shared bikes or scooters and essentially become commodity service.

But short term, a company that can get a robotaxi to you within one minute of being summoned, or which isn’t limited by a geofence or hours of use because it doesn’t mix well with rush-hour traffic, and which can use whichever highways or city streets gets you to the destination quicker considering current traffic — that company will be the one customers prefer.

Long term, companies that rely on software that can handle only 95% of driving decisions while leaving the rest to human remote-monitors/assistants… will lose out to companies with a system using an AI that can handle unique situations without help.  “Commodities” can still have differences that set them apart from each other, as well as differences from other forms of transportation.

[John_the_Younger]

With many trees and tree debris blocking parts of roads in Tallahassee, I enjoyed watching howFSD worked in the challenging conditions. It avoided the big pieces it was happy to run over stuff others had (although those were probably trucks); it hit or tried to hit a few little branches sticking out. It failed with a tree’s canopy totally blocked my lane with oncoming traffic- it just stopped by the tree. When I saw no more headlights through the tree , I pulled out my then let FSD drive on.

[Sigmetnow]

Here’s a Waymo way confused when following a trailer filled with trees/debris.
 
< Imagine being trapped in there 🤣
 
➡️ pic.twitter.com/FbgJGauTnZ  30 sec. Driverless Waymo: OBJECT: TREE.  ACTION: AVOID.   FML…

 
——

The who next waves the white flag: Renault Group cancels autonomous L4/L5 for passenger cars

Renault Group will not aim for so-called SAE Level 3 self-driving passenger cars, but will focus its autonomous vehicle efforts on minibuses that operate at Level 4 on defined routes, CTO Gilles Le Borgne said.

Renault offers “enhanced Level 2,” Le Borgne said Tuesday at an event at Renault’s technical center outside of Paris. “Ninety percent of customer expectations are already met with Level 2 plus,” Le Borgne said. “We’ll stay on the safe and affordable side of this line” for passenger cars,

Busses that drive a fixed route and stop at defined points without a driver exist already and should not be called autonomous vehicles because there are almost not any autonomous decisions to be made.

The Group of automakers giving up on autonomous passenger cars increases and I predict that trend will accelerate.

All will offer ADAS systems but only Tesla L4/L5 AVs anywhere anytime.  …
 
https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/renault-focus-self-driving-efforts-public-transit

5/15/24, https://x.com/alex_avoigt/status/1790716427856384094

 
——

< AI is taking off at an insane pace
 
Elon Musk
Yeah, seeing it everywhere.
 
Btw, 12.4 goes to internal release this weekend and limited external beta next week. Roughly 5X to 10X improvement in miles per intervention vs 12.3.
 
12.5 will be out in late June. Will also see a major improvement in mpi and is single stack – no more implicit stack on highways.
 
< When Cybertruck FSD?
Elon Musk:  With 12.5

5/15/24, https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1790629720754929747

[Sigmetnow]

Tesla FSD V12 drives through Chișinău, Moldova in Europe, without disengagements.  I have no idea how he got it to work, but it obviously doing great.

➡️ pic.twitter.com/LgoIAAqGIF   5 min timelapse.  The wide blue forward path-line on the display signifies FSD is engaged.
 
5/15/24, https://x.com/elektrotimmy/status/1790750076735819808

Full video:
Tesla cu FSD V.12 pe străzile din Chișinău - YouTube
Translated:  Tesla with FSD V.12 arrives in Chisina
36 min
 


Apparently a hacker?  (Although we know Tesla is testing FSD in multiple countries, I doubt they would permit posting a video.)  Re the comments about a computer in the glovebox: the Tesla FSD computer is located behind the glovebox.
 
As has been mentioned, traffic basics (lanes, lights, roundabouts) are similar around the world.  So it’s possible an AI with a basic knowledge of how to behave in traffic could drive adequately, if not perfectly, much like humans who take up driving in a foreign country.

> The implications of a system that can be dropped anywhere in the world and still have zero disengagements are profound.

[NeilT]

if not perfectly, much like humans who take up driving in a foreign country.

This is apparent regularly and was highlighted with a crash which happened outside a US airbase in the UK.  When the wife of one of the officers turned on to the wrong side of the road and hit a young motorcyclist who died.

Driving with reasonable competence is a bit like the old story of knowing just enough to be dangerous but not enough to be competent.

I expect, though, that training and improvement in each country will be very fast in comparison to the process of creating a competent solution in the first place.