I am not disagreeing that the long term future of coal is dismal. I am merely pointing out that your suggesting that the imminent demise of coal is at hand is hopelessly optimistic.
Attached is a link that shows a fairly pronounced drop in worldwide coal consumption in 2012 and I would not be surprised if this trend continued through 2015. Yet, despite this dip, certain nations are rapidly expanding their use of coal as they aggressively grow their economies. In the table, India is one of the most notable examples and, while China dropped from 2011 to 2012, the growth from 2008 has been dramatic.
https://www.eia.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/IEDIndex3.cfm?tid=1&pid=1&aid=2As context for this encouraging trend in coal consumption, I've attached a comprehensive report from the highly respected World Energy Council which provides an in depth analysis of energy across the planet. I would highly recommend that everyone read it. On page 8 of the report, it does forecast a huge increase in renewables by 2020. I have no doubt this forecast is accurate and, if it misses the mark, it likely is too conservative as the shift to renewables is accelerating. Beginning on page 10, it explores the future of coal and because worldwide energy consumption is increasing, coal will continue to play a significant role in meeting that demand, despite the rapid increase in renewables.
https://www.worldenergy.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Complete_WER_2013_Survey.pdfI am most discouraged by the fact that the current level of coal consumption is pretty much fixed in the developing world. These nations are struggling to grow their economies, have invested an enormous sum in the infrastructure to exploit coal and simply do not have the wealth to take these new coal plants offline. The average age of a US coal plant is 42 years. It would be foolish to think these new plants in developing countries will not be producing energy 30 years from now.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/a-dilemma-with-aging-coal-plants-retire-them-or-restore-them/2014/06/13/8914780a-f00a-11e3-914c-1fbd0614e2d4_story.htmlGoing back to the first link, if you look at the tables showing current coal consumption by country, the only way we will see a dramatic drop in current consumption levels of coal is if the developed world stops burning coal completely. The U.S currently consumes 10.9% of the world's annual use. Central and South America? A negligible 0.6%. All of Europe? 12.5%
Only the developed world has the wealth to get off coal. We need to do this within a decade. We probably also need to use some of that wealth to help 3rd world nations avoid increasing their consumption. Perhaps we can give them renewable wind and photovoltaic farms as Christmas presents. This is only part in jest as we need to do just that. The developed countries need to pay for renewable energy in the third world and not in the form of loans.
