The 2021/2022 freezing season

[Glen Koehler]

     Is there a list of "End of Freezing/Start of Melt Season" dates for each of the seas? 

[nadir]

     Is there a list of "End of Freezing/Start of Melt Season" dates for each of the seas?

No idea but Gerontocrat’s plots on the data thread give some good hints. I can’t find recent specific info on Bering sea however. There was a time we had the daily CT today info to check area in these regional seas, then Wipneus’ regional AMSR2 data too, but none of them are available today.

The ASIG still has links to the MASIE graphs

https://sites.google.com/site/arcticseaicegraphs/regional

Max at Bering sea happens earlier for obvious reasons. This year’s extent is high compared to recent years, so I guess a blow in late February can have a very strong effect, and probably Arctic ice overall extent will stall again as a consequence.

[Sublime_Rime]

Seems like the Bering is about to get a prolonged heatwave that might really kick off melting on the Pacific side, followed by a Western Siberian heatwave and then Barents and Kara sea heatwave later in the GFS run. If this unfolds as last few runs predict I could see a very early start to melt season.

[Stephan]

This could have an effect on the global sea ice minimum, if Bering starts to lose ice quickly, before freezing sets in around Antarcitca...

[binntho]

Snow cover seems to be a tad greater than last year, not so sure about total snow water equivalent, but I found this interesting product (see image) from here https://nsdc.fmi.fi/data/data_globsnow_swe

It shows the situation on Febreuary 19 2022, with snow depth in mm. What surprised me was how thin the snow is in most places, the only really deep snow can be found next to the oceans (which is not really a surprise).

One of the major factors in any melting season is how quickly the snow melts from the surrounding land masses.

[uniquorn]

Looks interesting, ran an animation from jan1-feb19 (5.5MB)

[HapHazard]

Interesting product, I don't believe I've seen it posted here before. How far back does it go? I'm very curious how the current date looks going back yearly. (I don't have the software nor time to fiddle with these things, unfortunately. You folks are awesome, thanks so much for all your hard work here)

[oren]

Indeed, SWE which is quite important has been underreported. I wonder if this new data source has a numerical output as well, or just the graphic. In any case this should be cross-posted to the snow thread as well.

[kassy]

Anomalous +200k gain and drop in the last days. Another storm interfered with the data?

[The Walrus]

Anomalous +200k gain and drop in the last days. Another storm interfered with the data?

Possibly.  The water appears to be cold enough to refreeze whenever the winds die down.  Arctic extent is still the highest since 2008.

[Jim Hunt]

Another storm interfered with the data?

I was pondering along those lines myself, but I'm not up to speed on recent weather I'm afraid. However the "blip" is much less obvious in the AWI AMSR2 data:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/02/the-2022-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/

[wallen]

Only concern is that, if it is a faulty reading, it could be a false high for the freeze season.

[Jim Hunt]

Dunno about a "storm", but there is some obvious weirdness in the Barents Sea on the Hamburg Uni AMSR2 for February 23rd:

[Jim Hunt]

This would seem to resolve the mystery?

For my AWI based area/extent metrics I currently only use the AM data. There's a lot of PM "noise" in the Baltic as well, that's been truncated in this view.

[kassy]

Really hard to see ( for me) how those two pictures add up to 200k. I will stick with the Barents Weirdness since that looks about right.

[Glen Koehler]

This would seem to resolve the mystery?

For my AWI based area/extent metrics I currently only use the AM data. There's a lot of PM "noise" in the Baltic as well, that's been truncated in this view.

     To my untrained eye those AMSR2 & AWI images suggest shocking weakness in large areas of high latitude ASI as we approach the freezing season peak.  Looks like Chukchi/ESS and esp. the central-Atlantic-side CAB near NP are too weak to last beyond August 1.  Extent is high vs. recent years, but those images make structural integrity and near-term melt season prospects seem very weak.

    Comments from those with historical perspective or deeper understanding to correctly interpret those image types sought.  If the image date was May or June I could fob it off as caused by spurious melt pond reflectance.  But it can't be melt ponding in February at those latitudes. Or if it is, that in itself would be a shocking sign of ASI degradation.  Cloud cover is suspect, but the same pattern appears on two dates and across two image sources, both of which I think can see through clouds.

     And might as well add this: the heat anomaly along the CAB-CAA border looks like a knife into the heart of the "Last Ice" area.  I know it is just temporary weather but it isn't just that one day.  With 'garlic press', Nares Arch, and Nares Strait export implications, that truly is the "Last" place where you want weak ASI heading towards melt season.

     Or am I just engaging in pre-melt season spring training warm-up doomerism?

[Tor Bejnar]

Looks like Chukchi/ESS and esp. the central-Atlantic-side CAB near NP are too weak to last beyond August 1.

I cannot offer substantive comments about most of what you wrote, but remember the trans-Arctic drift.  Ice at the North Pole today may be in Fram Strait in 6 months (or in a similarly distant place/melted in an ice graveyard).  The ice that will be at the North Pole in 6 months is today thickening near the Siberian Sea (or thereabouts).

[Steven]

Really hard to see ( for me) how those two pictures add up to 200k. I will stick with the Barents Weirdness since that looks about right.

I don't think the spurious JAXA extent increase was due to Barents Sea.  Rather, it seems to come from Greenland Sea.  The JAXA images show some artifacts in that region in the last few days, in particular between Iceland and Greenland.  (And also some artifacts near the southern tip of Greenland, but I assume that region is removed from their extent calculations.)

[kassy]

With that graphic i will switch to the Greenland Sea. 

Still hard to tell the scale.

[oren]

Thanks Steven, that would explain it. I wonder that JAXA doesn't have a better filtering mechanism to avoid such spurious fluctuations. AWI's data is better and they also have better filtering (including some tips from forum members).

[Jim Hunt]

Really hard to see ( for me) how those two pictures add up to 200k.

They don't. That's why the AWI extent "blip" is much smaller than the UH (and also presumably JAXA) one.

I guess I didn't explain it very well. Maybe I still haven't?!

[Jim Hunt]

I don't think the spurious JAXA extent increase was due to Barents Sea.  Rather, it seems to come from Greenland Sea.

Curiouser and curiouser. Those areas don't appear in the Hamburg Uni maps.

[nadir]

Bering sea already took a dive during last week, no sign of future extent increases according to Rick Thoman

https://twitter.com/alaskawx/status/1497977531030327300?s=21

[wallen]

Looking at Worldview today, Beaufort is shattered mess and the Freeze season is close to finished

[HapHazard]

Looking at Worldview today, Beaufort is shattered mess and the Freeze season is close to finished

Yeah, looks a bit weak for end Feb.

[nadir]

Tropical tidbits now brings ECMWF at 3h intervals in the forecasts (used to be one forecast per day), while keeping the last three days at 6h intervals.

It has a nice gif tool as well, then edit the gif to reduce size.

This is the anticyclone that formed in Beaufort and has been shattering the ice in the last days. The animation covers the past three days and the next three days.

[Jim Hunt]

Looks a bit weak for end Feb.

Sure does:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/02/the-2022-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#comment-546285

[Paul]

I disagree somewhat that the Beaufort ice looks weak, the ice has been pushed via strong winds which gets enhanced via the Beaufort Gyre. No doubt if the winds switch, the ice will look more solid again.

[The Walrus]

I disagree somewhat that the Beaufort ice looks weak, the ice has been pushed via strong winds which gets enhanced via the Beaufort Gyre. No doubt if the winds switch, the ice will look more solid again.

I agree.  These wind-driven changes are just an artifact in the seasonal changes.  The NSIDC sea ice extent has already pasted the average maximum value for the past 15 years, and 6 of the last 7 years.  A lot of ice was just compacted that will likely spread out again.

[nadir]

I disagree somewhat that the Beaufort ice looks weak, the ice has been pushed via strong winds which gets enhanced via the Beaufort Gyre. No doubt if the winds switch, the ice will look more solid again.

Yes, I think it depends if Beaufort weather is strongly and persistently anticyclonic during spring. That can lead to early open ocean extent, but of course not if it doesn’t persist.

[Jim Hunt]

Yes, I think it depends if Beaufort weather is strongly and persistently anticyclonic during spring. That can lead to early open ocean extent, but of course not if it doesn’t persist.

That's what happened in 2016:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2016/04/the-beaufort-gyre-goes-into-overdrive/

That was in mid April though. Open water isn't going to hang around for long at this time of year. Nevertheless the ice does indeed currently "look a bit weak".

[be cause]

It must be 2022 !

[Jim Hunt]

NSIDC 5 day averaged extent now shows a significant (temporary?) maximum:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2022/02/the-2022-maximum-arctic-sea-ice-extent/#Mar-01

[wallen]

Is that JAXA blip on the 23rd of Feb likely to be re-adjusted . Particularly given that it could give a season high of 200k more than actual.

[Freegrass]

February 2022 Weather Hindcast
Very large GIF!

[kassy]

Is that JAXA blip on the 23rd of Feb likely to be re-adjusted . Particularly given that it could give a season high of 200k more than actual.

They are not in a hurry to do so it seems but at some point someone will give us a better number and thus a different date?

[Freegrass]

Looking at the weather from last month - that I posted in my previous post - and this 30 day HYCOM GIF, I'm again not seeing spectacular Fram export this month. Although it was probably the biggest monthly export this winter. So far this entire winter Fram export has not been spectacular, so a lot of the ice is still left in the basin.

Those big Barents sea storms also pushed a lot of ice into the basin, and thick ice can be seen in the northern Laptev that has been blown in from around the islands.

We don't have the thick ice along the Siberia coast like we had last year, and the Laptev sea looks normal. The transpolar drift didn't move all that much ice north.

So together with the early freeze over and the record breaking extent, I'm seeing a lot of ice in the basin that will need a lot of energy to melt.

I'm not gonna be spending much time here anymore. I've learned what I needed to learn, and I've got other things to do now. But I do plan on posting these hindcasts every month. That way I can still keep track a little...

If anyone wants to take over the forecasts, that would be fine by be.

Thank you all for helping me to understand the arctic a little better. It's been very educational here...

[Freegrass]

HYCOM 2021 vs 2022, and 2022 to 2018

[be cause]

the 2 major differences are Kara and Beaufort . Both should melt out this year , Kara early .

[Freegrass]

the 2 major differences are Kara and Beaufort . Both should melt out this year , Kara early .

Yes, the beaufort had a lot of MYI around this time last year, that moved on towards the Chukchi sea later on. This year the gyre didn't move much ice. Most of it is still stuck against the CAA, where it is getting very thick along the entire coast up until Greenland.

[nadir]

Next week significant atmospheric warming happens over the Arctic with warm air being injected from both Pacific and Atlantic sides and the cold vortex being displaced to Canada. Seems like the end of the freezing season.

[Shared Humanity]

the 2 major differences are Kara and Beaufort . Both should melt out this year , Kara early .

Laptev looks pretty vulnerable as well. With the Beaufort so weak, this suggests the Chukchi and ESS could melt out early as well as no thick ice can migrate from the Beaufort. Will be an interesting melt season.

[Paul]

Really don't see this "weak" Beaufort ice, how much early  open water appears does depend how much high pressure develops during April and especially May in a way which generates strong winds and ramps up the Beaufort Gyre but there was already visual clues why we saw during 2019 the amount of open water we saw then. The ice visually then did look noticeably thinner than it does now.

The laptev has had a poorer refreeze in terms of wind direction, not alot of compaction with winds blowing towards the pole being quite frequent. That said I thought the Laptev would be alot more resilient last year but that certainly was not the case at all.

As the hycom charts shows, the ice is thicker in some parts this year compared to last but thinner in others however we are not starting the melting season with sea ice in the same condition as 2017.

[nadir]

The persistence of high pressure systems over the pacific Side of the Arctic coupled with persistence of lows over the Bering sea is tilting the Bering strait waters toward the Arctic and creating a pretty strong early inflow of Pacific water into the Arctic, as evidenced as well by the large displacement of ice dragged by the water (worldview Mar 8 vs Mar 9).

This early inflow probably has been occurring for weeks by now, may be interrupted soon.

Hycom Sea Surface Salinity (last 30 days) also indicates a big pulse of Pacific water into the Chukchi sea in recent weeks (needs a click).

[be cause]

A change of pattern will bring storms into the basin from east of Greenland producing gales or more in pretty well every part over the coming week or so . The recent influx of Pacific water will be met by a surge from the Atlantic and warmth , potentially bringing 0'C to the pole in a few days . This could by the dramatic start that portends a dramatic season that challenges records . b.c.

[gerontocrat]

The attached images certainly suggest some real wind and warmth heading into the Atlantic front over the next five days and maybe beyond that.

Could be enough to generate sufficient sea ice loss to persuade the opening of the 2022 melting season thread?

[oren]

Extent already seems to be straggling, even when taking out the artificial JAXA peak from Feb 23rd. My sense is the (true) max is already behind us, though statistically it can still be exceeded. Should some serious drops come along it might indeed be time to embrace the seasonal thread transition.

[Shared Humanity]

Extent already seems to be straggling, even when taking out the artificial JAXA peak from Feb 23rd. My sense is the (true) max is already behind us, though statistically it can still be exceeded. Should some serious drops come along it might indeed be time to embrace the seasonal thread transition.

Will they ever be able to adjust those two days where the wild swing occurred?

[grixm]

The attached images certainly suggest some real wind and warmth heading into the Atlantic front over the next five days and maybe beyond that.

Could be enough to generate sufficient sea ice loss to persuade the opening of the 2022 melting season thread?

To put it into perspective, the forecast is 32+ C above normal. Above freezing at the pole. 

[kassy]

The end is nigh! For this thread that is. 

Lot of warmth coming in from the Antlantic side from sunday to thursday.